Philippines Are A Mess

[farang prince]

Greetings from the Island of Mindanao, Republic of the Philippines, where civil war is right around the corner. At the heart of the problem is a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) that was signed between negotiators for the Philippine government and the Morro Islamic Liberation Front (<deleted>). The <deleted> is one of three insurgent groups fighting in Mindanao. They have about 12,000 fighters. The other insurgent groups include the Abu Saayef, another Muslim group with about 2,500 fighters, and the New People's Army, a Communist-led entity with about 4,000 fighters. In 2003, the <deleted> declared a cease fire and began negotiating with the Philippine Government to get an agreement that would cede land in Northern Mindanao to the MLF (the political arm of the <deleted>) so they can have an independent Islamic state.

Two weeks ago a Memorandum of Agreement was signed. President Gloria Arroyo was prepared to sign it last Tuesday. But the Supreme Court stepped in and issued a Temporary Restraining Order after governors in Mindanao filed a lawsuit saying the agreement was unconstitutional. Under the Philippine Constitution, the government cannot give away Philippine territory to another country. Since the MLF wants to make the Islamic state in Mindanao an independent state, signing the accord would be akin to giving away Philippine territory to another country. The MLF wants to have its own government, its own army, its own courts and has said it would apply to the United Nations to receive status as a new country.

After the Temporary Restraining Order was issued, forces from the <deleted> began attacking Christian enclaves in Northern Cotabato province. More than 125,000 people have been driven from their homes in 42 villages. The government is now trying to drive the <deleted> forces out of these villages. In addition, the Christians in Northern Cotabato have been forming their own militias and have vowed that they will fight to keep their land if the Islamic state is formed.

Having spent a substantial amount of time in the past year with the Philippine Defense Forces and the Philippine National Police, my guess is that a full-scale civil war will break out within the next two weeks unless the <deleted> returns to their original defense lines. Tragically no one is going to win if a civil war occurs.

[NotNew2You]

It is an historical accident that the island of Mindanao is part of the Philippines, rather than a part of Indonesia or Malaysia. (Just like the historical accident that the southern Kra peninsula of Thailand is part of Thailand rather than Malaysia, where it should be.) Geographically, ethnically, and culturally, Mindanao is an extension of the Malay Islamic peoples who inhabit the Indo/Malay island archipelago. Logically, the Philippines should consist of the Visayan islands and the northern island of Luzon, as these areas were never organized into Islamic sultanates like was the case in Mindanao, but were inhabited by less advanced groups of small tribal indigenous peoples, until they were united into a state during the Spanish colonization of the Philippines.

During the colonial period, the Spanish, and later the Americans, were never able to completely subdue the Islamic sultanates of Mindanao. Since Philippine independence, they have continued their fight for political and cultural autonomy and/or independence from the dominant majority Christian population, represented by the government in Manila. They have also been fighting increased Christian migration and settlement from the overcrowded northern Christian islands to Mindanao, in order to preserve their Islamic heritage.

There will never be peace in Mindanao (same in southern Thailand) until the area is granted substantial cultural, economic, and political autonomy from the central government, federation with Malaysia, or outright independence.

[farang prince]

It is an historical accident that the island of Mindanao is part of the Philippines, rather than a part of Indonesia or Malaysia. (Just like the historical accident that the southern Kra peninsula of Thailand is part of Thailand rather than Malaysia, where it should be.) Geographically, ethnically, and culturally, Mindanao is an extension of the Malay Islamic peoples who inhabit the Indo/Malay island archipelago. Logically, the Philippines should consist of the Visayan islands and the northern island of Luzon, as these areas were never organized into Islamic sultanates like was the case in Mindanao, but were inhabited by less advanced groups of small tribal indigenous peoples, until they were united into a state during the Spanish colonization of the Philippines.

During the colonial period, the Spanish, and later the Americans, were never able to completely subdue the Islamic sultanates of Mindanao. Since Philippine independence, they have continued their fight for political and cultural autonomy and/or independence from the dominant majority Christian population, represented by the government in Manila. They have also been fighting increased Christian migration and settlement from the overcrowded northern Christian islands to Mindanao, in order to preserve their Islamic heritage.

There will never be peace in Mindanao (same in southern Thailand) until the area is granted substantial cultural, economic, and political autonomy from the central government, federation with Malaysia, or outright independence.

Thank you NotNew. That is an excellent summation of the issues. Of course, it is unrealistic to think that the Christians will allow themselves to fall under Islamic rule. And it is also logical to anticipate that they will not give up their lands without a fight. Civil war appears inevitable. Very sad for the people -- both Christian and Muslim -- in the region.

[NotNew2You]

You will have to convince hundreds of thousands of Christians in Mindanao to fall under Islamic rule. It won't happen. Nor will they give up their lands without a struggle. Civil war appears inevitable.

I don't argue your point about a civil war...as I stated in my post, the Muslims of Mindanao have been fighting for justice, first from the Spanish Christians, then the American Christians, and now the northern island Christians, for hundreds of years. Only the scale and intensity of the fighting changes from decade to decade.

As I also pointed out, the "Christians" in Mindanao are internal migrants from the northern Philippine islands and not indigenous to Mindanao, so it is not "their lands" so to speak. It has been a conscious policy of the central Christian government in Manila to encourage this migration to dilute the Islamic character of Mindanao (similar to the Thai governments policy of encouraging Buddhist farmers from Issan to move and settle in southern Thailand). Both regions feel their native culture and identity under threat from these policies and naturally resent and resist them.

I would argue that the historical right in this conflict belongs with Mindanao's Muslims and their armed representatives.

PS: As an aside, technically, Malaysia (through the vehicle of some of the historic Islamic sultanates that were incorporated into Malaysian Borneo) actually has territorial claims to large parts, if not all, of Mindanao. To to my knowledge, it has never formally relinquished these claims.

[farang prince]

You will have to convince hundreds of thousands of Christians in Mindanao to fall under Islamic rule. It won't happen. Nor will they give up their lands without a struggle. Civil war appears inevitable.

I don't argue your point about a civil war...as I stated in my post, the Muslims of Mindanao have been fighting for justice, first from the Spanish Christians, then the American Christians, and now the northern island Christians, for hundreds of years. Only the scale and intensity of the fighting changes from decade to decade.

As I also pointed out, the "Christians" in Mindanao are internal migrants from the northern Philippine islands and not indigenous to Mindanao, so it is not "their lands" so to speak. It has been a conscious policy of the central Christian government in Manila to encourage this migration to dilute the Islamic character of Mindanao (similar to the Thai governments policy of encouraging Buddhist farmers from Issan to move and settle in southern Thailand). Both regions feel their native culture and identity under threat from these policies and naturally resent and resist them.

I would argue that the historical right in this conflict belongs with Mindanao's Muslims and their armed representatives.

PS: As an aside, technically, Malaysia (through the vehicle of some of the historic Islamic sultanates that were incorporated into Malaysian Borneo) actually has territorial claims to large parts, if not all, of Mindanao. To to my knowledge, it has never formally relinquished these claims.

You might be correct about the historical right of the Muslims to land in Mindanao. But legally speaking, Mindanao is part of the Republic of the Philippines and therefore the people who reside in Mindanao are expected to uphold the rule of law. In realistic terms, it doesn't matter who has the historical right to anything once the bullets begin to fly. When that happens, everyone will lose.

[NotNew2You]

In realistic terms, it doesn't matter who has the historical right to anything once the bullets begin to fly. When that happens, everyone will lose.

When it starts...just don't forget to duck

[think_too_mut]

The Philipines...what a trag-comic country that the world laughs at and overlooks it.

Hope Thailand never sinks that low.

[NotNew2You]

The Philipines...what a trag-comic country that the world laughs at and overlooks it. Hope Thailand never sinks that low.

There has actually been some informed commentary bemoaning the fact that Thailand, with all the ongoing political turmoil of the recent past and its continuation, is in real danger of emulating the Philippines disease of chronically weak and unstable governments. The danger being such governments cannot implement long-term policies in education, infrastructure, and trade to encourage the continued development and economic growth of the country.

[farang prince]

In realistic terms, it doesn't matter who has the historical right to anything once the bullets begin to fly. When that happens, everyone will lose.

When it starts...just don't forget to duck

I have no problem being able to stay small.

[Naam]

Greetings from the Island of Mindanao, Republic of the Philippines, where civil war is right around the corner.

off topic question Prince... have you moved to the Philippines permanently?

[Prakanong]

NotNew and FP - Thanks for the history and current political lesson - very interesting as my boss in a Filipino and I work with 5 others in senior regional positions within a very large pharma MNC

I did think the education system was quite good there though - just from the people i work with. There also seems to be a hunger to do well and to get out and earn good money elsewhere - more drive than the Thai's from what i have seen.

[PhilHarries]

The Philipines...what a trag-comic country that the world laughs at and overlooks it. Hope Thailand never sinks that low.

There has actually been some informed commentary bemoaning the fact that Thailand, with all the ongoing political turmoil of the recent past and its continuation, is in real danger of emulating the Philippines disease of chronically weak and unstable governments. The danger being such governments cannot implement long-term policies in education, infrastructure, and trade to encourage the continued development and economic growth of the country.

And that is the problem with a weak unstable government, the insurgents will take advantage of their incompetance and inability to react. However the strong TRT government was also bad for the south. What is needed is a government willing to listen and compromise but strong enough to maintain the law and order.

As for the long term issues, all the time subjects like education remain a political football, the only solution is a kind of benign dictatorship as in Singapore. But even in such places there are tensions requiring strong, unpopular, action.

[farang prince]

Greetings from the Island of Mindanao, Republic of the Philippines, where civil war is right around the corner.

off topic question Prince... have you moved to the Philippines permanently?

I'm under contract, Naam, to provide training for the Philippine National Police and for the military who are taking over some law enforcement functions in Mindanao. Should be here a few more months, although there are discussions that the contract will be extended.

[RusticCharm]

I would argue that the historical right in this conflict belongs with Mindanao's Muslims and their armed representatives.

"Armed representatives'?

Is that how pro-muslim, politically-correct lefties are referring to terrorists these days?

We have these scumbags in the South as well. They did a very good job of attacking a family and killing a 9 year-old girl yesterday. It appears these terrorists .. er ...I mean ... 'armed representatives' seem to have become bored with just beheading monks.

[stiggy]

very sad to hear

Be safe to all those there.

I done a web search on The <deleted> ....rather surprised what came back

[percy2]

Really depends on which side you support as to whether they are "armed representatives" (quite like the term) "freedom fighters" or "terrorists"

Cheers

[PhilHarries]

Good morning sir, we are the armed representatives of the Jehovas Witnesses. Would you like to invite us in for a short bible reading followed by our friendly sales pitch?

It does have a certain ring to it and may cut down on the number of doors they get slammed in heir face.

[farang prince]

Really depends on which side you support as to whether they are "armed representatives" (quite like the term) "freedom fighters" or "terrorists"

Cheers

Dead also works quite well, especially when it preceeds "terrorist" or "armed representative.".

[percy2]

Really depends on which side you support as to whether they are "armed representatives" (quite like the term) "freedom fighters" or "terrorists"

Cheers

Dead also works quite well, especially when it preceeds "terrorist" or "armed representative.".

I'm not sure what you are trying to say.

Cheers

[Lancelot]

Having spent a substantial amount of time in the past year with the Philippine Defense Forces and the Philippine National Police, my guess is that a full-scale civil war will break out within the next two weeks unless the <deleted> returns to their original defense lines. Tragically no one is going to win if a civil war occurs.

I hope they can work it out; the Filipinos are great people and the PI is a beautiful country

[Smithson]

There also seems to be a hunger to do well and to get out and earn good money elsewhere - more drive than the Thai's from what i have seen.

The drive to get out shows just how messed up the place, the big difference with the Thais is they're happy here.

[Thaiher2me]

I would argue that the historical right in this conflict belongs with Mindanao's Muslims and their armed representatives.

"Armed representatives'?

Is that how pro-muslim, politically-correct lefties are referring to terrorists these days?

We have these scumbags in the South as well. They did a very good job of attacking a family and killing a 9 year-old girl yesterday. It appears these terrorists .. er ...I mean ... 'armed representatives' seem to have become bored with just beheading monks.

Dong!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hurrah!, we have someone here who has recognised a lefty, pinko. Probably a law student from a middle-class family who has never had to get their hands dirty. The real world is just outside your front door lefty, take a good hard look.

[NotNew2You]

As in Africa, many (most?) of the political borders in Asia were imposed on the region by Western colonial powers. These borders did not take into account the existing cultural and/or linguistic groups residing in the area, and in fact, competing or antagonistic population groups were often lumped together in a particular colony (now independent state) in order to make the colonizer's administration of area easier through a divide and rule strategy. The modern day consequence of this are nation-states with non-homogeneous populations who would not have joined together to form a nation if it not had been imposed on them by outside powers. Therefore, as in Africa, there is constant political and military activism for secession and annexation or outright independence by sub-national groups in these areas.

The same occurred in Europe over hundreds of years; with endless ethnic and religious wars (that still occur as shown by the recent conflicts in Spain's Basque region, northern Ireland, the Balkans, Kosovo, and Georgia). The natural sorting out of European populations occured to where we have the present borders in Europe. The same will happen in Asia (and Africa) at their own pace.

[HAL9000]

As in Africa, many (most?) of the political borders in Asia were imposed on the region by Western colonial powers. These borders did not take into account the existing cultural and/or linguistic groups residing in the area, and in fact, competing or antagonistic population groups were often lumped together in a particular colony (now independent state) in order to make the colonizer's administration of area easier through a divide and rule strategy. The modern day consequence of this are nation-states with non-homogeneous populations who would not have joined together to form a nation if it not had been imposed on them by outside powers. Therefore, as in Africa, there is constant political and military activism for secession and annexation or outright independence by sub-national groups in these areas.

The same occurred in Europe over hundreds of years; with endless ethnic and religious wars (that still occur as shown by the recent conflicts in Spain's Basque region, northern Ireland, the Balkans, Kosovo, and Georgia). The natural sorting out of European populations occured to where we have the present borders in Europe. The same will happen in Asia (and Africa) at their own pace.

This is not the answer. If everyone would love their neighbor and cherish diversity within their borders, it wouldn't matter where the borders are. If everyone cites history as a reason to change borders, that is the road to war. That is how Hitler started out by claiming everything that was historically german. And Germans could continue to cite history as a basis for getting back land, as Germany today is smaller than it was before or after WWI. And today's map of Europe is not some evolutionary product of culture settling. Today's map is a result of the victor's spoils of WWII.

[farang prince]

The current situation in Mindanao is quite tense. The Morro Islamic Liberation Front (<deleted>) took control of more than 40 Christian villages in North Cotabato last week and it took government troops more than five days to drive them out. Yesterday a government patrol was ambushed in Lanao del Sur with four soldiers killed along with three militiamen. Then today the <deleted> cut off sectors in Iligan and were taking Christians as prisoners. There were also bombs set off at two hotels in Iligan with three people wounded. Clearly the <deleted> is ratcheting up the terrorism to force the Philippine government to sign the Memberandum of Agreement. And just as clearly, once that MOA is signed, there will be civil war in the Philippines. The majority Christians in Mindanao are not going to be forced off their land or give up their cities. Here in Cagayan de Oro, the second largest city in Mindanao, police are implementing emergency plans to provide greater security at the city's malls and main shopping and business areas. The city's major festival, the Fiestas, takes place in late August. There are concerns that the <deleted> and Abu Sayyef might try to use the Fiestas as a launching point for their terrorism campaign. Meanwhile, groups of Christians in Cagayan de Oro have been arming themselves and there are worries that they will begin killing Muslims in the city if a terror campaign is launched.

[farang prince]

Just to update the information about the <deleted> attacks in Lanao del Norte yesterday...33 people murdered.

[junkofdavid2]

We should listen to bighearted boy Obama on how to deal with terrorists...

Let's sit down and talk to them.

[Naam]

We should listen to bighearted boy Obama on how to deal with terrorists... Let's sit down and talk to them.

so "nuke 'em they got them... ahmm... whatchamacallit... weapons of mass destruction" is a better option?

[NotNew2You]

<deleted> attacks in Lanao del Norte yesterday...33 people murdered.

Don't you feel that describing causalities in an armed civil conflict between military forces of a state and non-state actors, the term "murdered" is inappropriate? I would think "killed' would be a better description, as the word "murder" implies a judgment as to the merits of the deaths on the part of the writer.

Do you have any statistics on the number of people killed by Philippine military forces?

[farang prince]

<deleted> attacks in Lanao del Norte yesterday...33 people murdered.

Don't you feel that describing causalities in an armed civil conflict between military forces of a state and non-state actors, the term "murdered" is inappropriate? I would think "killed' would be a better description, as the word "murder" implies a judgment as to the merits of the deaths on the part of the writer.

Do you have any statistics on the number of people killed by Philippine military forces?

Are you serious? These were civilians that were murdered by terrorists. You can try to parse it any way you want...but when innocent people are killed by terrorists, that is murder. No need to respond. I know where your head and heart are. In another two weeks if you are running with the <deleted>, you might be in my sights. Good luck.