Thailand Tourism Decline To Exacerbate

[Maigo6]

Sorry if your business isn't doing so well, but it's not because there aren't any tourists around.

My business is doing fine because of expat customers, but it would do even better IF there were more tourists around.

I'll be stocking up on a few books soon, ( I think your in Tops, right ), anyway, that's where I go,

I bought some John Grisham books there last time , didn't like them that much, the one with the 11 year old kid who runs rings around the Mafia, Lawyers, FBI agents, local Police and hitmen is a bit far fetched to say the least.

At the moment I'm up country and reading, ( for maybe the 20th time!) 'The Confederacy of Dunces' by John Kennedy Toole.

[petitechevre]

as long as mcdonalds and burger king make a killing in western countries.. there will never be a shortage of fat 40yo+ virgins coming to thailand for sex tourism or to become sexpats

tourism can only increase

[Tinkelbell]

Well...if you have seen American tourists comming down to Thailand slowing, that because they opp to travel close to their home which dues to the part of high prices of flying a long distance, fueling with unstabled politics and economy in this country. The Americans rather to go somewhere else.

From yesterday's report of Florida tourism: An estimated 22-million came to Florida from April through June ( in a period of three months). Overseas travelers ( most were from EU countries, taking advantage of strong euro currency) increased 8 percent. And Canadian tourists up 5.1 percent.

[Ulysses G.]

At the moment I'm up country and reading, ( for maybe the 20th time!) 'The Confederacy of Dunces' by John Kennedy Toole.

Shame about the author killing himself because he thought that he was a failure when no publishers were interested in it.

[klikster]

Many of the package tourists have already booked their trips and flights for the Christmas holidays, so there is at least a guarantee of a core group of visitors showing up. The key indicators to watch will be bookings for Q1 of 2009. If the unrest buggers the holidays for visitors at Christmas it will be game over for Q1 & Q2.

There are few guarantees in life and the fact that tourists can always cancel, (even those "already booked") is the key factor.

Just look back to post tsunami hotel bookings. One major hotel booking portal lost millions on canceled bookings.

Watch the bookings coming out of the Asian countries of Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. If they decline 10% or more, there will be a ripple effect. Watch the travel booking reports coming out of the big agencies like Amex, Cook etc. If they start reporting cancellations or decreased interest in Sept & Oct., then it's game over until next high season. No one can say for sure what the impact will be until the big agencies report their trends.

I doubt that tourists look to big agency trends to plan their holiday. They read their local newspapers and watch their local TV news outlets.

Thailand doesn't get their big bucks from Sep & Oct booking but from Nov thru Feb .. especially over the Christmas - New Year holidays. And many of those booking have already been made. The question is, how many people will cut their losses and decide that being to land in KL and get a shuttle to Langkawi is better than having to spend their time in BKK because Phuket airport is shut down?

[farang prince]

Yes, there is nothing that get's my blood flowing fast than a good riot and blood in the streets. And if the troops and tanks are rolling in the streets, I'll have a woodie that will last for weeks.

-- George S. Patton --

Anyone who thinks that this civil unrest won't affect tourism is kidding themselves. Tourism is already down because of the economy. People are staying closer to home. And now we have the spectre of riots and possible military intervention. Will the sex tourists still come? Maybe. But the humping they will get might not be worth the humping they will get.

[steveromagnino]

Tourism is nowhere near the largest employer; I would have to look it up, but I suspect it is a huge catch all and includes internal tourism and travel as well of Thais within the kingdom and yet is still probably something like 1/4 at the absolute most of the employed in Thailand.

And anyway.....the tourism is going to reduce by say 20-30% max and a huge amount is internal tourism....so yes its bad but hardly anything along the lines of SARS.

Tourism is still a HUGE money earner for Thailand and in general tourist jobs pay much better than agriculture. Tourism is already much lower than when SARS was around and this idiocy will reduce it even more.

There are many of us who hope to build businesses around viable market opportunities rather than waiting for tourists to come; we need stable government and not crony capitalism. If this step is required to get a functioning democracy (and a good lesson to the current government if they redid things over would be don't put idiots into key departments and don't focus on rewriting the constitution to protect one person, actually try to get the economy going instead) then sadly we don't have much choice.

I just don't see much point in making stuff up (e.g. tourism makes up a major source of employment, greater than agriculture e.g. tourism is lower than during SARS) as I guess that is not the way I run my business. Sadly this is pretty much how both the PAD and Samak choose to run their campaigns, and you can see the net result!

As for reliance on western cash to fund tourism, I think it is fairly obvious to most now that the past targets of Americans and British are fading, and with higher oil prices as well as their economic issues, just as well.

[Ulysses G.]

I just don't see much point in making stuff up (e.g. tourism makes up a major source of employment, greater than agriculture e.g. tourism is lower than during SARS) as I guess that is not the way I run my business.

You seem to be making up stuff now as no one said that tourism is greater than agriculture - but it does pay workers better - and tourism IS a major source of employment - at least that is what the BBC has said over and over again the last few days - and tourism seems much lower than during SARS, but not because of the PAD yet. That will come in a few months during high season from all the people who are canceling plans right now to go to Thailand for high season.

[Ulysses G.]

As for reliance on western cash to fund tourism, I think it is fairly obvious to most now that the past targets of Americans and British are fading, and with higher oil prices as well as their economic issues, just as well.

There is a worldwide economic slowdown right now, but it would be rather silly to count out customers from America and the UK from now on because of it. Is THAT how you run your business?

I'll give you a helpful hint: It is normal for economies to go up and down. Things could easily change for the better and when they do, white-boys will be coming over in droves.

[imaneggspurt]

I doubt tourism numbers will fall significantly, if at all.

I doubt if they do, it will ever be in the sector of tourists that Thailand could really do without.

Yea i agree, the sex tourists will keep coming no matter what

[steveromagnino]

I just don't see much point in making stuff up (e.g. tourism makes up a major source of employment, greater than agriculture e.g. tourism is lower than during SARS) as I guess that is not the way I run my business.

You seem to be making up stuff now as no one said that tourism is greater than agriculture - but it does pay workers better - and tourism IS a major source of employment - at least that is what the BBC has said over and over again the last few days - and tourism seems much lower than during SARS, but not because of the PAD yet. That will come in a few months during high season from all the people who are canceling plans right now to go to Thailand for high season.

Oh you mean that no one said:

'The point is that the tourism industry here is the country's biggest source of employment with more people working in that industry than any other. The country can probably afford to take a hit on the financial side but none of us can afford such a large segment of the population to be unemployed because that spells big problems. ' Chaingmai post number 34.... and then an attempt to back it up here:

'Your source uses data from 2004 as the most recent year wherein 42.3% are involved in agriculture and this number is in steady decline over the years of the survey. That same survey also shows 37.1% engaged in services and this number is increasing. There is a potential that staff engaged in services now exceeds those engaged in agriculture hence I can see where either viewpoint may potentially be correct. I will see what I can find.' post number 47

Maybe making things up is a bit strong; let's change it to basing conclusions on inaccurate data then.

As for your SARS predictions....time will tell. But you certainly cannot say something like:

'Tourism is already much lower than when SARS was around and this idiocy will reduce it even more. '

phrased (at least as I understand english) as fact when the facts clearly show yes, it may seem lower, but to date the real numbers show that to date (as in the word, 'already') tourism is still higher than then and therefore the data is not there to support your comment.

As Stephen Colbert once said, there are more nerve endings in your gut than your brain :-)

You place the blame here on the PAD. Many blame both sides. Obviously the PAD blame Samak.

Irrespective of who is right, we certainly can agree, it is a bit of a pain and a very large pain for certain people coupled with already tough conditions for tourism with higher oil prices, economies in recession and so on.

But I don't really care nearly as much about Tourism as some do; in fact I really wish Thailand had less tourism and then concentrated on building other industries, such as Korea has done. But to each their own. Neither of us are the Minister of Tourism anyhow.

[Ulysses G.]

[As Stephen Colbert once said, there are more nerve endings in your gut than your brain :-)

Really?

If we want to insinuate things about the state of anyone's brain, it might be the person who is initially quoting me and then using other people's posts to supposedly "prove" what I said, or maybe the fellow who is claiming that tourism now is definitely higher than during the time of SARS, but offering no proof at all for what he is saying.

By the way. SARS hit during high season and it is now the lowest point of low season in a very bad year, so it is not a fact, but it stands to reason that tourism was better then.

Edited September 3, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[thaihome]

Out of a labor population of about 36 million, approximately 40% are agriculture workers. I suspect, due to the size of the sector, that manufacturing is by far the largest non-agriculture employer. In maybe 6 places in country, tourism is the overwhelming largest employer, which explains why some posters think it is the largest part of the Thai economy.

TH

[bangkokrick]

Thai airways cancel 10% of their flights due to unrest. To think that that this situation won't affect tourism is absurd.

CNN 10 mins ago.

Cheers, Rick

[stephaniee]

I doubt tourism numbers will fall significantly, if at all.

I doubt if they do, it will ever be in the sector of tourists that Thailand could really do without.

los would really be better off w/o so many backpacker types i do agree. these give los a bad name.

[madjbs]

Backpackers don't give anywhere a bad name, sex tourists do however.

[madjbs]

By the way. SARS hit during high season and it is now the lowest point of low season in a very bad year, so it is not a fact, but it stands to reason that tourism was better then.

I'm afraid you are wrong again. I can't understand why people refuse to accept the facts.

SARS hit in April 2003, during that month only 450,000 tourists came to Thailand. In September of every year since, the number of tourist arrivals has been above 800,000 (including September 2003). In September 2007 it was up to 1 million tourists. So unless tourism has fallen by 60% in 2008, I think you are very much mistaken.

All the data shows that tourism is increasing massively, it also shows that in the space of just a couple of months after a bad event (SARS, coup etc..), the numbers are pretty much back to normal.

Source: http://www2.tat.or.th/stat/web/static_download.php?Rpt=nmt

Edited September 3, 2008 by madjbs

[Ulysses G.]

By the way. SARS hit during high season and it is now the lowest point of low season in a very bad year, so it is not a fact, but it stands to reason that tourism was better then.

I'm afraid you are wrong again. I can't understand why people refuse to accept the facts.

Why, you seem to basing your opinion on other years, not on this one, perhaps because you have no data to back you up. However, you seem to have completely forgotten all the other negative things that are taking place right now - besides the riots in Bangkok - that are damaging tourism in Thailand such as the major world-wide economic downturn. In other words you are just providing us with an excellent example of wishful thinking rather than any so-called "facts".

Gee thanks!

Edited September 3, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[madjbs]

scraping the barrel now...

stick to just selling books in future.

Edited September 3, 2008 by madjbs

[Ulysses G.]

I'm not the one pulling "facts" out of thin air!

Edited September 3, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[madjbs]

2008 is an even better year than 2007. During the first quarter of 2008, tourist arrivals increased nearly 20% over 2007.

All that I have said, stands....

That hole is getting pretty deep now, isn't it?

Source: PATA

http://www.pata.org/patasite/index.php?id=111

Edited September 3, 2008 by madjbs

[Maigo6]

2008 is an even better year than 2007. During the first quarter of 2008, tourist arrivals increased nearly 20% over 2007.

All that I have said, stands....

That hole is getting pretty deep now, isn't it?

Source: PATA

http://www.pata.org/patasite/index.php?id=111

That's history, what about now ?

Don't you think the current worldwide downturn is having an effect on tourism ?

Don't you think Countries warning their citizens not to travel to Thailand will have a negative effect on Tourism ?

You think civil unrest attracts tourists ?

This is low season, so maybe the effect won't be as noticable as it would be in high season, but it still must have a negative effect.

Edited September 3, 2008 by Maigo6

[skiman1]

I was on the phonme today to a mate from UK who has no intention of cutting out his 4th trip to Thailand this year, he only asked if the bars were open and ' Bar entertainment was available '

As much as I personally dislike this attitude, I know for a fact that he would never again come to Thailand if he couldn't take advantage on what's on offer at bargain basement prices, and that includes the crowd he travels with.

The only thing that would ever stop him coming to Thailand would be a strict enforcement of the prostitution laws, or the prices going up to what they are in UK.

who put you in charge of the "moral police" ? - pompous ass

[madjbs]

If you look at all the data from previous "crisis" times, you see that the numbers are low for the month of the crisis and then bounce back to normal within a couple of months. Once the violence stops here, Thailand and PAD will vanish from the news and it will be back to business as usual.

The worldwide economic downturn will of course effect things, but looking at the figures for the first quarter, not that much currently. People still go on holiday, especially as Thailand is seen as a "cheep" place to visit, unlike the Caribbean for example.

[Ulysses G.]

2008 is an even better year than 2007. During the first quarter of 2008, tourist arrivals increased nearly 20% over 2007.

All that I have said, stands....

That hole is getting pretty deep now, isn't it?

What hole?

There were no PAD riots in Bangkok in the first quarter of 2008 and the economic downturn was nowhere as certain as it is now. Things were still looking pretty.

As Maigo6 asked you, do you think that bloodshed and civil unrest attracts tourists?

[madjbs]

it is now the lowest point of low season in a very bad year,

So for it to be a very bad year, it would mean that the numbers have been bad up till this point,no?

Why has there been a 20% increase in numbers then? Meaning that 2008 has seen more tourists in the first quarter than any year before. Doesn't sound like a very bad year to me.

So we can expect a slight dip for the next month due to the current civil unrest (which I have already said), but why greater than all the civil unrest in the past? Why greater than SARS? Why greater than the TSUNAMI? Why won't it bounce back to normal when it has done for all these events (except for the tsunami which took the good part of a year)?

Edited September 3, 2008 by madjbs

[Maigo6]

who put you in charge of the "moral police" ? - pompous ass

It's fact that's all, thats the reason they come to Thailand, unless you know my mates better than I do, you'll have to take that as factual.

Moral Police ? Kindly explain yourself, and the pathetic insult.

Why are you so pizzed off, associate yourself in my post did you ?

[Ulysses G.]

So we can expect a slight dip for the next month due to the current civil unrest (which I have already said), but why greater than all the civil unrest in the past? Why greater than SARS? Why greater than the TSUNAMI? Why won't it bounce back to normal when it has done for all these events (except for the tsunami which took the good part of a year)?

IT'S THE ECONOMY S****D!

It is a major problem all over the world and these riots are happening right when tourists make their decision about their winter vacation. If they stear clear of Thailand during high season, many businesses will have to survive a whole year with vey little income. A year with no money is a long time for any business.

Edited September 3, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[madjbs]

Don't pretend you know anything about the economy UG. To do that you need to be able to look at and analyse data, which you clearly can not do.

As I said before, the downturn in the economy will slow the growth numbers. However, as all the data shows, it isn't slowing it enough to create this 60% reduction in tourism you told us about earlier. Who's the one "pulling facts out of thin air" again?

Stop lying to yourself that your business is not growing as it should because there are not enough tourists around. Face the facts, they are there, you just aren't catering for them.

Laughable

[Ulysses G.]

Sorry, but I'm not the one making up numbers from nowhere, you are, but if you don't think that the current economy will effect tourism in a major way, you must be as thick as a brick.

So far my businesses are doing fine, because of expat customers. What I am worried about is the future. However, almost every tourist-oriented business owner I know is crying about how lousy things are including Chiang Mai's most successful Western restaurants, but I guess that you know better than they do.

In your dreams!

Edited September 3, 2008 by Ulysses G.