Help . . . Is The £ Going Into Free-fall?

[lannarebirth]

If you are worried about currencies abdicate from them.

Cheers

Jim Rogers is right.

But the Forex Gold quoted rate is based on gold ETF, which all the majors players know is just another bunch of paper, backed by nothing but lies.

Anyone want to guess where physical gold prices will be in 6 months?

One of the goldbugs central themes these past few months was that the futures market could not deliver on their "paper" promises for the December contract. Contract settlement has come and gone and the world has not slipped off its axis amazingly. If you want gold in any amount buy it for delivery through the futures. These spreads people seem to be content to pay reeks of pure ignorance and mania.

Maybe I'll be eating my words come next expiration, but it was the last one where it was said things would go "boom" and did not.

To be honest, I cannot understand why gold hasn't gone zoom in these times. I suspected the ETF thing and a lack of confidence in it.

I think holding a proportion of wealth in physical gold is not a bad idea though. Say 20%? Remember, this recession thing is looking more like a depression by the day and has yet to really get started.

I don't say this stuff through doom-mongering or schadenfreude, just a notion of reality and ways to keep the family fed.

I agree with MJP 100% on this & 20% just happens to be where I am now.

As for LB's comment

These spreads people seem to be content to pay reeks of pure ignorance and mania.

Must be nice to have the option not to pay the premium. I sir do not & yet I reek of neither ignorance or mania.

http://www.nymex.com/GC_spec.aspx

Sincerely flying, I didn't intend it as a slight I understand your reasoning for wanting to own a % of your wealth in Gold. I just don't understand the spread and why physical buyers aren't suspicious of it. Someone is making a killing on that spread. That spread needs to be overcome before there is any appreciation in the value of the underlying asset.

[ArranP]

USD/JPY JPY reported to weaken against the USD in the near term from Japanese authorities interveening to weaken its currency (reported on Bloomberg)

EUR/USD EUR reported to weaken against USD due to the ECB being behind on rate cuts, and germany apparently about to fall the cliff (reported by currency stratigists on Bloomberg)

GBP/EUR EUR due to weaken against GBP for the same reasons given in EUR/USD.

GBP/USD GBP may weaken further in the near term from further BOE rate cuts, but strengthening to 1.80/1.90 by end of 2009 (reported by Barclays Capital)

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/307...ains-debt.thtml

MJP, I was about to comment on the last line of Arrans post regarding the Pound getting to $1.80 by the end of 2009 until I read your link to the spectator article, I think that the spectator made the UK's dilema far more clear more than I could One of my oldest friends on Wall Street told me a couple months ago that things will be getting bad very soon then they will get worse, but as bad as the situation may seem here in the U.S. he told me the situation in the UK (where much of his business was) will be worse by a factor of 2 or perhaps 3 times. He thought back then that the FED would have to go to 0% on the FED funds rate and that eventually the BOE will have to do the same, however he said that there was a big difference between the U.S. and the U.K., as he put it the U.S. had more outs! As a former poker player I knew what the term meant, but until I read this article by the spectator I didn't know exactly just how bad the situation was in the U.K. was. In the first 90 days of the new year I think you will see the Pound and Euro at par and the BOE cutting their interest rate to 0%, the ECB will also be forced to cut their rates substantially so the Dollar will hit new 52 week highs against both of them. As far as Barclays predicting the Pound to be at $1.80-$1.90 by years end, well lets just say that Barclays has a better chance of no longer being a going concern by the end of 2009 than the Pound has of being back in the $1.80-$1.90 range.

The artical certainly lends itself for good reading and one to note about UK Debt level.

I think the currency speculators at Barclays are saying USD currency is going to weaken thru 2009. I don't think they're inferring UK economic strength.

I think they (and some other stratigists) believe commodities will rise (and maybe equities a little) thru 2009, and it is this that will cause the USD to weaken, something to do with money-flow.

Historically as equities and commodities rise the inverse happens in the dollar, the USD falls against other currencies.

With near 0% funding currencies available like the USD and YEN, Institions and retail investors will get little return whist remaining in cash.

Edited December 21, 2008 by ArranP

[lannarebirth]

If you are worried about currencies abdicate from them.

Cheers

Jim Rogers is right.

But the Forex Gold quoted rate is based on gold ETF, which all the majors players know is just another bunch of paper, backed by nothing but lies.

Anyone want to guess where physical gold prices will be in 6 months?

One of the goldbugs central themes these past few months was that the futures market could not deliver on their "paper" promises for the December contract. Contract settlement has come and gone and the world has not slipped off its axis amazingly. If you want gold in any amount buy it for delivery through the futures. These spreads people seem to be content to pay reeks of pure ignorance and mania.

Maybe I'll be eating my words come next expiration, but it was the last one where it was said things would go "boom" and did not.

To be honest, I cannot understand why gold hasn't gone zoom in these times. I suspected the ETF thing and a lack of confidence in it.

I think holding a proportion of wealth in physical gold is not a bad idea though. Say 20%? Remember, this recession thing is looking more like a depression by the day and has yet to really get started.

I don't say this stuff through doom-mongering or schadenfreude, just a notion of reality and ways to keep the family fed.

I agree with MJP 100% on this & 20% just happens to be where I am now.

As for LB's comment

These spreads people seem to be content to pay reeks of pure ignorance and mania.

Must be nice to have the option not to pay the premium. I sir do not & yet I reek of neither ignorance or mania.

http://www.nymex.com/GC_spec.aspx

Sincerely flying, I didn't intend it as a slight I understand your reasoning for wanting to own a % of your wealth in Gold. I just don't understand the spread and why physical buyers aren't suspicious of it. Someone is making a killing on that spread. That spread needs to be overcome before there is any appreciation in the value of the underlying asset.

Anyhow, this is about the most respected place I am aware of in the US for buying precious metals:

http://www.tulving.com/

That there is such a premium over the spot price for silver coins tells me that there is either a mania going on or there are a whole lot of numismatic collectors who find the coin much more appealing than just the metal itself.

Edited December 21, 2008 by lannarebirth

[chiang mai]

USD/JPY JPY reported to weaken against the USD in the near term from Japanese authorities interveening to weaken its currency (reported on Bloomberg)

EUR/USD EUR reported to weaken against USD due to the ECB being behind on rate cuts, and germany apparently about to fall the cliff (reported by currency stratigists on Bloomberg)

GBP/EUR EUR due to weaken against GBP for the same reasons given in EUR/USD.

GBP/USD GBP may weaken further in the near term from further BOE rate cuts, but strengthening to 1.80/1.90 by end of 2009 (reported by Barclays Capital)

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/307...ains-debt.thtml

MJP, I was about to comment on the last line of Arrans post regarding the Pound getting to $1.80 by the end of 2009 until I read your link to the spectator article, I think that the spectator made the UK's dilema far more clear more than I could One of my oldest friends on Wall Street told me a couple months ago that things will be getting bad very soon then they will get worse, but as bad as the situation may seem here in the U.S. he told me the situation in the UK (where much of his business was) will be worse by a factor of 2 or perhaps 3 times. He thought back then that the FED would have to go to 0% on the FED funds rate and that eventually the BOE will have to do the same, however he said that there was a big difference between the U.S. and the U.K., as he put it the U.S. had more outs! As a former poker player I knew what the term meant, but until I read this article by the spectator I didn't know exactly just how bad the situation was in the U.K. was. In the first 90 days of the new year I think you will see the Pound and Euro at par and the BOE cutting their interest rate to 0%, the ECB will also be forced to cut their rates substantially so the Dollar will hit new 52 week highs against both of them. As far as Barclays predicting the Pound to be at $1.80-$1.90 by years end, well lets just say that Barclays has a better chance of no longer being a going concern by the end of 2009 than the Pound has of being back in the $1.80-$1.90 range.

The artical certainly lends itself for good reading and one to note about UK Debt level.

I think the currency speculators at Barclays are saying USD currency is going to weaken thru 2009. I don't think they're inferring UK economic strength.

I think they (and some other stratigists) believe commodities will rise (and maybe equities a little) thru 2009, and it is this that will cause the USD to weaken, something to do with money-flow.

Historically as equities and commodities rise the inverse happens in the dollar, the USD falls against other currencies.

With near 0% funding currencies available like the USD and YEN, Institions and retail investors will get little return whist remaining in cash.

The concept of a falling USD at some point in 2009, probably sooner rather than later, seems widely accepted, as does a falling GBP - question is, where does that leave GBP/THB or should I say USD/THB and GBP/USD?

[Greenside]

I couldn't begin to wade through all 29 pages so here's my question if anyone is still reading this thread...

Need somewhere to live, prefer not to rent for longer than about another six months: buy/build now (modest amount - 4 or 5 million) or hang on in there? Purchased small condo a while back at 72/£ so of course feel sick as a dog about prospect of 52 but worse still if it continues this plummet.

Bite the bullet or sit tight for a while?

[Naam]

If you are worried about currencies abdicate from them.

Cheers

Jim Rogers is right.

But the Forex Gold quoted rate is based on gold ETF, which all the majors players know is just another bunch of paper, backed by nothing but lies. Anyone want to guess where physical gold prices will be in 6 months?

MJP, you have to differentiate between "real" physical gold (500g-1kg bars) and the "poor man's" gold (coins and mini denominations) which command (in my view) an unacceptable premium for a yield conscious investor. there's nothing wrong to hold "minis" as long as this premiums exist but does anybody want to forecast how long they will exist?

[chiang mai]

I couldn't begin to wade through all 29 pages so here's my question if anyone is still reading this thread...

Need somewhere to live, prefer not to rent for longer than about another six months: buy/build now (modest amount - 4 or 5 million) or hang on in there? Purchased small condo a while back at 72/£ so of course feel sick as a dog about prospect of 52 but worse still if it continues this plummet.

Bite the bullet or sit tight for a while?

You already know it's not a simple question to answer although I agree that trying to get others to answer it for you might seem to make it easier, not more correct or appropriate, just easier. I'm not trying to be smart but you really do need to read the thread because things are not black and white at present and there is much to consider, you seem to be in an almost identical situation to the OP although you do now have the benefit in that time and events have moved on. Sorry.

[ArranP]

USD/JPY JPY reported to weaken against the USD in the near term from Japanese authorities interveening to weaken its currency (reported on Bloomberg)

EUR/USD EUR reported to weaken against USD due to the ECB being behind on rate cuts, and germany apparently about to fall the cliff (reported by currency stratigists on Bloomberg)

GBP/EUR EUR due to weaken against GBP for the same reasons given in EUR/USD.

GBP/USD GBP may weaken further in the near term from further BOE rate cuts, but strengthening to 1.80/1.90 by end of 2009 (reported by Barclays Capital)

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/307...ains-debt.thtml

MJP, I was about to comment on the last line of Arrans post regarding the Pound getting to $1.80 by the end of 2009 until I read your link to the spectator article, I think that the spectator made the UK's dilema far more clear more than I could One of my oldest friends on Wall Street told me a couple months ago that things will be getting bad very soon then they will get worse, but as bad as the situation may seem here in the U.S. he told me the situation in the UK (where much of his business was) will be worse by a factor of 2 or perhaps 3 times. He thought back then that the FED would have to go to 0% on the FED funds rate and that eventually the BOE will have to do the same, however he said that there was a big difference between the U.S. and the U.K., as he put it the U.S. had more outs! As a former poker player I knew what the term meant, but until I read this article by the spectator I didn't know exactly just how bad the situation was in the U.K. was. In the first 90 days of the new year I think you will see the Pound and Euro at par and the BOE cutting their interest rate to 0%, the ECB will also be forced to cut their rates substantially so the Dollar will hit new 52 week highs against both of them. As far as Barclays predicting the Pound to be at $1.80-$1.90 by years end, well lets just say that Barclays has a better chance of no longer being a going concern by the end of 2009 than the Pound has of being back in the $1.80-$1.90 range.

The artical certainly lends itself for good reading and one to note about UK Debt level.

I think the currency speculators at Barclays are saying USD currency is going to weaken thru 2009. I don't think they're inferring UK economic strength.

I think they (and some other stratigists) believe commodities will rise (and maybe equities a little) thru 2009, and it is this that will cause the USD to weaken, something to do with money-flow.

Historically as equities and commodities rise the inverse happens in the dollar, the USD falls against other currencies.

With near 0% funding currencies available like the USD and YEN, Institions and retail investors will get little return whist remaining in cash.

The concept of a falling USD at some point in 2009, probably sooner rather than later, seems widely accepted, as does a falling GBP - question is, where does that leave GBP/THB or should I say USD/THB and GBP/USD?

Which is the greater force?

1. Re-investment into comodities and equities thru 2009 causes the dollar to weaken.

2. UK bad economic in excess to its peers (ie. US / Europe / Japan) causing GBP weakness.

I wouldn't be too confident on the bad UK economic getting in the way of global re-investment into equities and commodities. I think this is the reasoning behind the USD dollar weakness against most currencies including the pound.

I'm not too sure what will happen with the Thai baht, maybe it will also stengthen against the dollar, maybe Thai authorities will interveen to weaken its currency (like Japan is starting to do now), it is a tourist nation?

[flying]

Sincerely flying, I didn't intend it as a slight I understand your reasoning for wanting to own a % of your wealth in Gold. I just don't understand the spread and why physical buyers aren't suspicious of it. Someone is making a killing on that spread. That spread needs to be overcome before there is any appreciation in the value of the underlying asset.

Anyhow, this is about the most respected place I am aware of in the US for buying precious metals:

http://www.tulving.com/

That there is such a premium over the spot price for silver coins tells me that there is either a mania going on or there are a whole lot of numismatic collectors who find the coin much more appealing than just the metal itself.

Thanks LB

I know & no problem I just meant it the same way.

There is no way around teh premium for most.

Sure we would love it to be gone but supply & demand rule the roost.

None buying coins believes the paper price hence we have two prices.

Ebay & Comex.

Luckily good dealers fall somewhere between the two.

Not as high as Ebay

Yes I know Tulving he is quite a nice guy but very to the point.

His premiums are ok but his minimum is 20 oz

Better than the 100 oz min of comex but not as good as those I know.

Thanks though.

[Bizz]

USD/JPY JPY reported to weaken against the USD in the near term from Japanese authorities interveening to weaken its currency (reported on Bloomberg)

EUR/USD EUR reported to weaken against USD due to the ECB being behind on rate cuts, and germany apparently about to fall the cliff (reported by currency stratigists on Bloomberg)

GBP/EUR EUR due to weaken against GBP for the same reasons given in EUR/USD.

GBP/USD GBP may weaken further in the near term from further BOE rate cuts, but strengthening to 1.80/1.90 by end of 2009 (reported by Barclays Capital)

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/307...ains-debt.thtml

USD/JPY JPY reported to weaken against the USD in the near term from Japanese authorities interveening to weaken its currency (reported on Bloomberg)

EUR/USD EUR reported to weaken against USD due to the ECB being behind on rate cuts, and germany apparently about to fall the cliff (reported by currency stratigists on Bloomberg)

GBP/EUR EUR due to weaken against GBP for the same reasons given in EUR/USD.

GBP/USD GBP may weaken further in the near term from further BOE rate cuts, but strengthening to 1.80/1.90 by end of 2009 (reported by Barclays Capital)

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/307...ains-debt.thtml

MJP, I was about to comment on the last line of Arrans post regarding the Pound getting to $1.80 by the end of 2009 until I read your link to the spectator article, I think that the spectator made the UK's dilema far more clear more than I could One of my oldest friends on Wall Street told me a couple months ago that things will be getting bad very soon then they will get worse, but as bad as the situation may seem here in the U.S. he told me the situation in the UK (where much of his business was) will be worse by a factor of 2 or perhaps 3 times. He thought back then that the FED would have to go to 0% on the FED funds rate and that eventually the BOE will have to do the same, however he said that there was a big difference between the U.S. and the U.K., as he put it the U.S. had more outs! As a former poker player I knew what the term meant, but until I read this article by the spectator I didn't know exactly just how bad the situation was in the U.K. was. In the first 90 days of the new year I think you will see the Pound and Euro at par and the BOE cutting their interest rate to 0%, the ECB will also be forced to cut their rates substantially so the Dollar will hit new 52 week highs against both of them. As far as Barclays predicting the Pound to be at $1.80-$1.90 by years end, well lets just say that Barclays has a better chance of no longer being a going concern by the end of 2009 than the Pound has of being back in the $1.80-$1.90 range.

The artical certainly lends itself for good reading and one to note about UK Debt level.

I think the currency speculators at Barclays are saying USD currency is going to weaken thru 2009. I don't think they're inferring UK economic strength.

I think they (and some other stratigists) believe commodities will rise (and maybe equities a little) thru 2009, and it is this that will cause the USD to weaken, something to do with money-flow.

Historically as equities and commodities rise the inverse happens in the dollar, the USD falls against other currencies.

With near 0% funding currencies available like the USD and YEN, Institions and retail investors will get little return whist remaining in cash.

€ Will be €1.65=$ end of Feb. £ on parity with €.

Has anyone read up much on this guy what your opinion is?

Mark Mobius

The nature of work will be altered significantly within a single generation

Who Me

Edited December 21, 2008 by Bizz

[MJP]

USD/JPY JPY reported to weaken against the USD in the near term from Japanese authorities interveening to weaken its currency (reported on Bloomberg)

EUR/USD EUR reported to weaken against USD due to the ECB being behind on rate cuts, and germany apparently about to fall the cliff (reported by currency stratigists on Bloomberg)

GBP/EUR EUR due to weaken against GBP for the same reasons given in EUR/USD.

GBP/USD GBP may weaken further in the near term from further BOE rate cuts, but strengthening to 1.80/1.90 by end of 2009 (reported by Barclays Capital)

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/307...ains-debt.thtml

MJP, I was about to comment on the last line of Arrans post regarding the Pound getting to $1.80 by the end of 2009 until I read your link to the spectator article, I think that the spectator made the UK's dilema far more clear more than I could One of my oldest friends on Wall Street told me a couple months ago that things will be getting bad very soon then they will get worse, but as bad as the situation may seem here in the U.S. he told me the situation in the UK (where much of his business was) will be worse by a factor of 2 or perhaps 3 times. He thought back then that the FED would have to go to 0% on the FED funds rate and that eventually the BOE will have to do the same, however he said that there was a big difference between the U.S. and the U.K., as he put it the U.S. had more outs! As a former poker player I knew what the term meant, but until I read this article by the spectator I didn't know exactly just how bad the situation was in the U.K. was. In the first 90 days of the new year I think you will see the Pound and Euro at par and the BOE cutting their interest rate to 0%, the ECB will also be forced to cut their rates substantially so the Dollar will hit new 52 week highs against both of them. As far as Barclays predicting the Pound to be at $1.80-$1.90 by years end, well lets just say that Barclays has a better chance of no longer being a going concern by the end of 2009 than the Pound has of being back in the $1.80-$1.90 range.

The artical certainly lends itself for good reading and one to note about UK Debt level.

I think the currency speculators at Barclays are saying USD currency is going to weaken thru 2009. I don't think they're inferring UK economic strength.

I think they (and some other stratigists) believe commodities will rise (and maybe equities a little) thru 2009, and it is this that will cause the USD to weaken, something to do with money-flow.

Historically as equities and commodities rise the inverse happens in the dollar, the USD falls against other currencies.

With near 0% funding currencies available like the USD and YEN, Institions and retail investors will get little return whist remaining in cash.

The concept of a falling USD at some point in 2009, probably sooner rather than later, seems widely accepted, as does a falling GBP - question is, where does that leave GBP/THB or should I say USD/THB and GBP/USD?

Which is the greater force?

1. Re-investment into comodities and equities thru 2009 causes the dollar to weaken.

2. UK bad economic in excess to its peers (ie. US / Europe / Japan) causing GBP weakness.

I wouldn't be too confident on the bad UK economic getting in the way of global re-investment into equities and commodities. I think this is the reasoning behind the USD dollar weakness against most currencies including the pound.

I'm not too sure what will happen with the Thai baht, maybe it will also stengthen against the dollar, maybe Thai authorities will interveen to weaken its currency (like Japan is starting to do now), it is a tourist nation?

Hey Arran,

Yep. I suspect some bizarre technical strength in GBP/THB sometime in '09, for the reasons you mention. Well I pray for it really.

Good chance the UK could get dumped like Iceland, but remember the UK is still the sixth biggest manufacturer in the World and has a population more than 300,000. Who knows what the future holds?

[VegasVic]

USD/JPY JPY reported to weaken against the USD in the near term from Japanese authorities interveening to weaken its currency (reported on Bloomberg)

EUR/USD EUR reported to weaken against USD due to the ECB being behind on rate cuts, and germany apparently about to fall the cliff (reported by currency stratigists on Bloomberg)

GBP/EUR EUR due to weaken against GBP for the same reasons given in EUR/USD.

GBP/USD GBP may weaken further in the near term from further BOE rate cuts, but strengthening to 1.80/1.90 by end of 2009 (reported by Barclays Capital)

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/307...ains-debt.thtml

USD/JPY JPY reported to weaken against the USD in the near term from Japanese authorities interveening to weaken its currency (reported on Bloomberg)

EUR/USD EUR reported to weaken against USD due to the ECB being behind on rate cuts, and germany apparently about to fall the cliff (reported by currency stratigists on Bloomberg)

GBP/EUR EUR due to weaken against GBP for the same reasons given in EUR/USD.

GBP/USD GBP may weaken further in the near term from further BOE rate cuts, but strengthening to 1.80/1.90 by end of 2009 (reported by Barclays Capital)

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/307...ains-debt.thtml

MJP, I was about to comment on the last line of Arrans post regarding the Pound getting to $1.80 by the end of 2009 until I read your link to the spectator article, I think that the spectator made the UK's dilema far more clear more than I could One of my oldest friends on Wall Street told me a couple months ago that things will be getting bad very soon then they will get worse, but as bad as the situation may seem here in the U.S. he told me the situation in the UK (where much of his business was) will be worse by a factor of 2 or perhaps 3 times. He thought back then that the FED would have to go to 0% on the FED funds rate and that eventually the BOE will have to do the same, however he said that there was a big difference between the U.S. and the U.K., as he put it the U.S. had more outs! As a former poker player I knew what the term meant, but until I read this article by the spectator I didn't know exactly just how bad the situation was in the U.K. was. In the first 90 days of the new year I think you will see the Pound and Euro at par and the BOE cutting their interest rate to 0%, the ECB will also be forced to cut their rates substantially so the Dollar will hit new 52 week highs against both of them. As far as Barclays predicting the Pound to be at $1.80-$1.90 by years end, well lets just say that Barclays has a better chance of no longer being a going concern by the end of 2009 than the Pound has of being back in the $1.80-$1.90 range.

The artical certainly lends itself for good reading and one to note about UK Debt level.

I think the currency speculators at Barclays are saying USD currency is going to weaken thru 2009. I don't think they're inferring UK economic strength.

I think they (and some other stratigists) believe commodities will rise (and maybe equities a little) thru 2009, and it is this that will cause the USD to weaken, something to do with money-flow.

Historically as equities and commodities rise the inverse happens in the dollar, the USD falls against other currencies.

With near 0% funding currencies available like the USD and YEN, Institions and retail investors will get little return whist remaining in cash.

€ Will be €1.65=$ end of Feb. £ on parity with €.

Has anyone read up much on this guy what your opinion is?

Mark Mobius

The nature of work will be altered significantly within a single generation

Who Me

I see a great deal of wishful thinking here about how much the Pound will rise vs. the Dollar in 2009, but then again I guess if I were a Brit (especially an expat brit) I would be hoping and praying for the same thing! The reality might be a little different though. The world economies are about to enter the greatest period of deflationary pressure since the great depression, and those closet goldbugs here wishing for large scale investment into commodities in 2009 will likely be extremely dissapointed The Pound and Euro will be at par at some point during Q1, but the exchange rate with the Dollar will be closer to $1.30 than $1.65 Most of The hedge funds and investment banks that were flush with cash and using 40-1 leverage to push oil, gold, copper and a host of other commodities to all time highs are no longer around, so the pipe dream that commodities will be making a comeback in 2009 may fall just a wee bit short!!! As for Mr. Mobius he has specialized in investment opportunities outside of the U.S. for the better part of the past 40 years, and was widely regarded until he got caught in the Chinese market crash and then more recently in the Russian market colapse. I am not sure what Mr Mobius is pushing these days, but I would take what he has to say with a grain of salt as his recent track record has been a little rough Merry Christmass to all and to all a good night

[flying]

The world economies are about to enter the greatest period of deflationary pressure since the great depression, and those closet goldbugs here wishing for large scale investment into commodities in 2009 will likely be extremely dissapointed The Pound and Euro will be at par at some point during Q1, but the exchange rate with the Dollar will be closer to $1.30 than $1.65 Most of The hedge funds and investment banks that were flush with cash and using 40-1 leverage to push oil, gold, copper and a host of other commodities to all time highs are no longer around, so the pipe dream that commodities will be making a comeback in 2009 may fall just a wee bit short!!!

I like your posts & never take them as inflammatory as I like to think from different perspectives.

On what you say above.........*& you know I am not a real bona fide gold bug....

I am curious first about the deflation of course I agree but.... Before that transpires Bernake will do as he has said many times before...Meaning cash..cash & more cash... So wont there be heavy monetary inflation first?

Then what you said about the hedge funds..... What I wonder is why the price was down when they were in full swing. Now as you say they are leaving but the price is on the rise? I know many individuals flock to PM's as a safe haven when all else is failing. I mean aside from the stock markets & crashing IRA-401K's

Many are just plain afraid of the banks ability at this point. Even with FDIC & NCUA guarantees of 250k. We all know by law they need to only have 1% reserves so they cannot help many in reality. If anyone watches the FDIC & NCUA they see banks & credit unions are in fact failing weekly even if we only hear about the biggest ones. Sooooooooo all I am thinking is Gold & Silver may have some legs yet. Dont you?

[Wrong Turn]

The nature of work will be altered significantly within a single generation

VegasVic,

Did Mark Mobius say this, or write it?

I clicked on both links and didn't find the above quote or topic.

Can you expand on this?

It's in interesting concept for me.

[MJP]

Bizz

The nature of work will be altered significantly within a single generation

Who Me

I clicked 'See demo'.

Have a go. I've still got PMSL tears streaming down my face.

[ArranP]

I see a great deal of wishful thinking here about how much the Pound will rise vs. the Dollar in 2009, but then again I guess if I were a Brit (especially an expat brit) I would be hoping and praying for the same thing! The reality might be a little different though. The world economies are about to enter the greatest period of deflationary pressure since the great depression, and those closet goldbugs here wishing for large scale investment into commodities in 2009 will likely be extremely dissapointed The Pound and Euro will be at par at some point during Q1, but the exchange rate with the Dollar will be closer to $1.30 than $1.65 Most of The hedge funds and investment banks that were flush with cash and using 40-1 leverage to push oil, gold, copper and a host of other commodities to all time highs are no longer around, so the pipe dream that commodities will be making a comeback in 2009 may fall just a wee bit short!!! As for Mr. Mobius he has specialized in investment opportunities outside of the U.S. for the better part of the past 40 years, and was widely regarded until he got caught in the Chinese market crash and then more recently in the Russian market colapse. I am not sure what Mr Mobius is pushing these days, but I would take what he has to say with a grain of salt as his recent track record has been a little rough Merry Christmass to all and to all a good night

Merry Christmas Vic,

I agree with you, without a rise commodities/equities I see/here no reason why the dollar would weaken from 1.30/140 to the pound.

However, most stratigists on Bloomberg are forecasting either

1) "better" or "not as bad" economic figures toward the end of 2009, they know the stock market tends to pick up two quarters prior to the econimic, therefore they are forecasting equities starting to pick up from Q3 onwards.

2) commodities recovering through 2009, I think this would be caused by the availability of near 0% cheap money, like the JPY or USD.

What we have seen in 2008 is the selling of commodities and equities causing the USD to strengthen.

If in 2009 we see the buying of commodities and equities this would inturn cause the USD to reverse trend and weaken.

I don't know if equities/commodities will rise, I only know they are expecting "Not as bad" econmic figures toward the end of 2009, and funding in USD and JPY is currently very cheap.

I tend to lean toward the positive story, and am in the process of moving my capital from USD into GBP.

Merry Christmas all

Edited December 22, 2008 by ArranP

[12DrinkMore]

I tend to lean toward the positive story, and am in the process of moving my capital from USD into GBP.

Thank you so much, as indeed Brown will too. I hope you have a couple of trillions to lessen the plight.

And a very merry Christmas also.

[LaoPo]

I tend to lean toward the positive story, and am in the process of moving my capital from USD into GBP.

Merry Christmas all

Are you being bloody serious or pulling a few hundred legs here ?

You might as well start bringing water into the Pacific Ocean...

LaoPo

[VegasVic]

The nature of work will be altered significantly within a single generation

VegasVic,

Did Mark Mobius say this, or write it?

I clicked on both links and didn't find the above quote or topic.

Can you expand on this?

It's in interesting concept for me.

Wrong turn, I think you made a wrong turn here I see you have my name attributed to a quote that I did not make! If you would like to put the quote in context and let me know who said it then I would be more than happy to comment

[VegasVic]

The world economies are about to enter the greatest period of deflationary pressure since the great depression, and those closet goldbugs here wishing for large scale investment into commodities in 2009 will likely be extremely dissapointed The Pound and Euro will be at par at some point during Q1, but the exchange rate with the Dollar will be closer to $1.30 than $1.65 Most of The hedge funds and investment banks that were flush with cash and using 40-1 leverage to push oil, gold, copper and a host of other commodities to all time highs are no longer around, so the pipe dream that commodities will be making a comeback in 2009 may fall just a wee bit short!!!

I like your posts & never take them as inflammatory as I like to think from different perspectives.

On what you say above.........*& you know I am not a real bona fide gold bug....

I am curious first about the deflation of course I agree but.... Before that transpires Bernake will do as he has said many times before...Meaning cash..cash & more cash... So wont there be heavy monetary inflation first?

Then what you said about the hedge funds..... What I wonder is why the price was down when they were in full swing. Now as you say they are leaving but the price is on the rise? I know many individuals flock to PM's as a safe haven when all else is failing. I mean aside from the stock markets & crashing IRA-401K's

Many are just plain afraid of the banks ability at this point. Even with FDIC & NCUA guarantees of 250k. We all know by law they need to only have 1% reserves so they cannot help many in reality. If anyone watches the FDIC & NCUA they see banks & credit unions are in fact failing weekly even if we only hear about the biggest ones. Sooooooooo all I am thinking is Gold & Silver may have some legs yet. Dont you?

Flying I know that you are more than happy to grasp at any straws that put a positive spin on the POG or PM's in general but you are barking up the wrong tree my friend. Early in 2009 the Japanese will devalue the Yen, the ECB, BOE, and Aussie central bank will be cutting interest rates and the price of oil will break the $30/bbl level, that all adds up to a stronger Dollar Deflationary pressures will continue through 2009 and that will keep commodities in check for the bulk of the year. The lower price of oil is a multi year situation, not just a temporary pullback. There are my 2 cents

[VegasVic]

I tend to lean toward the positive story, and am in the process of moving my capital from USD into GBP.

Merry Christmas all

:D Are you being bloody serious or pulling a few hundred legs here ?

You might as well start bringing water into the Pacific Ocean...

LaoPo

I guess everyone choses their own particular brand of poison Lao, mine is a good Merlot or Cabernet though I do concurr with your sentiments however, anyone moving their Dollars or Euros into Sterling at this time, definately are in need of some serious financial counseling

[flying]

that all adds up to a stronger Dollar

Gawd help me as I am trying but every time I hear this ...given what is going on in the world........Smoke billows from my ears & little that does not compute signs flash on the lcd of my meager brain

[ArranP]

I tend to lean toward the positive story, and am in the process of moving my capital from USD into GBP.

Merry Christmas all

:D Are you being bloody serious or pulling a few hundred legs here ?

You might as well start bringing water into the Pacific Ocean...

LaoPo

I guess everyone choses their own particular brand of poison Lao, mine is a good Merlot or Cabernet though I do concurr with your sentiments however, anyone moving their Dollars or Euros into Sterling at this time, definately are in need of some serious financial counseling

Another reason statigists on Bloomberg give for commodities to rise during 2009 are inventories, at the momemt manufacturers have stopped producing, sometime next year as inventories bottom, they are expected to re-start manufacturing again, thus purchasing commodities.

I moved my capital from GBP into USD at 1.97 in June 2007, I'm moving my capital into GBP from USD December 2008/January 2009 at approx 1.48, so I'm locking-in what is already a substantial gain.

Lets comg back to this at the end of 2009, maybe I will be wrong and need conselling :-) but will hold off on making my appointment for now. :-) always keen to learn and thanks for your input :-)

At the moment from my perspective I have your goodself and maybe a few other people on this forum in the USD strength camp with many stratigists on Bloomberg in the USD weakness camp for end of 2009.

I think the main difference between you and these stratigists on Bloomberg is they believe the economic will pick up toward the end of 2009, ie a recession of approx 4 qtrs but not a depression, whilst I think you believe it will take longer?

Edited December 24, 2008 by ArranP

[Mosha]

The news just gets better. Not.

http://money.uk.msn.com/investing/articles...mentid=12173019

[ArranP]

GBP/USD: The Pound will reach 1.6500 in the Q3, says BNP Paribas

Mon, Apr 6 2009, 09:36 GMT

http://www.fxstreet.com

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) – Pound’s recovery from 1.3655 Mar 11 low seems to be a long lasting one, according to the quarterly currency outlook by BNP Paribas, which forecasts the Sterling to climb towards maximum levels around 1.65 during the current year.

The Pound would continue appreciating against the Dollar, reaching levels around 1.58 at the end of the second quarter to continue climbing reaching 1.65 to close the third quarter. BNP Paribas forecasts some easing on the fourth quarter, in which the Pound will set back to 1.61.

[churchill]

Thai interest rates cut today - and more to come ? Also Dollar weakening so probably not bad for sterling/baht

[churchill]

But this does not help -

The world upside down -

For years the government have been attempting to sell the royal mail - so cash for taxpayers - but now they are having to pump money in - This is why governments cannot run finances .

EU clears state aid for Royal Mail

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=reutersnew...cleid=TRE5371XK

[ChiangMaiFun]

Thai interest rates cut today - and more to come ? Also Dollar weakening so probably not bad for sterling/baht

what's the best guess for timing? I was thinking 55 soon rising to late 50s in few months - I ask because I'm due to transfer a considerable sum in the next month or two

[churchill]

Nobody can tell - I would just go with the trends , If you can get 52 at this time go for it - but the trend may change up or down - so I would say high 51's a good rate now .

What happens in the next weeks ? but again look at the trend and exchange on the high .

[ChiangMaiFun]

Nobody can tell - I would just go with the trends , If you can get 52 at this time go for it - but the trend may change up or down - so I would say high 51's a good rate now .

What happens in the next weeks ? but again look at the trend and exchange on the high .

yes thanks... Im pretty sure dollar will weaken and GBP will recover to late b50s - but... who know's when? (obviously nobody) but I am contracturally obliged to settle on some property (several millions) and even a 1 THB increase is worth over 500,000 to me... I'm convinced it will happen - but when?