Thailand In Stagflation

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

A short definitiion of stagflation is slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment

Thailand is showing 2007 unemployment of 1.7% (per CIA). My question is how do they know? Since they have no unemployment compensation and a very small percentage file any taxes, what do they base this on? Am I missing something here or do they just want to appear as one of the worlds lowest in unemployment.

So if you can't believe the employment figures and the inflation depends on who's doing the figuring, how do you know if the country is going into stagflation or not?

Not that it matters, just curious.

[teacup]

Before I jump in

Just want to make sure ........you did not mean ' Stagnation'?

If it's "Stagflation" then what I think is this

If you see.......slow economic growth and rising unemployment, possibly including recession with rising prices,........if it all fits then it is here or on the verge of it!

just edited

Edited September 6, 2008 by teacup

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Stagnation is a period of little or no economic growth.

Stagflation is the above plus a decline in employment. I think stagflation is the hardest to determine in LOS.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Teacup.......I think the main point I was trying to make (not very well put) was how can you determine either when the statistics appear so off the wall.

[OlRedEyes]

You can't. Official stats here is like religion, you just gotta believe.

Face is too important here to believe anything.

[cloudhopper]

A short definitiion of stagflation is slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment

Thailand is showing 2007 unemployment of 1.7% (per CIA). My question is how do they know? Since they have no unemployment compensation and a very small percentage file any taxes, what do they base this on? Am I missing something here or do they just want to appear as one of the worlds lowest in unemployment.

So if you can't believe the employment figures and the inflation depends on who's doing the figuring, how do you know if the country is going into stagflation or not?

Not that it matters, just curious.

Stagflation might be better described as those two "official" stats accompanied by increasing consumer prices, which are apparent to all on the street.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

The inflation is apparent is looking at cost rises in most everything, but wouldn't have a clue on how you determine unemployed.

[OlRedEyes]

The inflation is apparent is looking at cost rises in most everything, but wouldn't have a clue on how you determine unemployed.

When you have 4 guys delivering bottled water, or 3-4 'technicians' installing an ADSL line (I had 5 from CAT), unemployment is probably lowish.

[teacup]

Teacup.......I think the main point I was trying to make (not very well put) was how can you determine either when the statistics appear so off the wall.

Sorry I had to go eat and mow the backyard lawn, mr teacup said "NOW"!

And I haven't got into this debate since .....oh my US university years which was ofcouse many moons ago. I had to take so many ecomonic classes and can't say I'm the expert in it.

Just to answer.......How do you know about it and what are some signs, seeing in the today's economy?

When you notice that the prices of almost all commodities are skyrocketing, relentless rises in energy costs, and relentless rises in food costs, all these without any increase in the incomes of the people. Purchasing power is also getting lower and lower - their income can buy things less and less nowadays.

Plus there is no trust in government anymore for various obvious reasons, and even less trust in companies. Many companies have found themselves making less and less profit, and normal working class people are finding it harder to find jobs or with a good pays.

In addition to all of those above, we are witnessing the declining values in housing. And do you know what is coming next?

The relentlessly rising in “the layoffs” , across the board job market

Yes the economy stinks, me think .......just a short version of it

Ofcourse there are many long version of this and hopefully some member here is a real economist who can be able to explain it in more lengthty.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Teacup.......I think the main point I was trying to make (not very well put) was how can you determine either when the statistics appear so off the wall.

Sorry I had to go eat and mow the backyard lawn, mr teacup said "NOW"!

And I haven't got into this debate since .....oh my US university years which was ofcouse many moons ago. I had to take so many ecomonic classes and can't say I'm the expert in it.

Just to answer.......How do you know about it and what are some signs, seeing in the today's economy?

When you notice that the prices of almost all commodities are skyrocketing, relentless rises in energy costs, and relentless rises in food costs, all these without any increase in the incomes of the people. Purchasing power is also getting lower and lower - their income can buy things less and less nowadays.

Plus there is no trust in government anymore for various obvious reasons, and even less trust in companies. Many companies have found themselves making less and less profit, and normal working class people are finding it harder to find jobs or with a good pays.

In addition to all of those above, we are witnessing the declining values in housing. And do you know what is coming next?

The relentlessly rising in "the layoffs" , across the board job market

Yes the economy stinks, me think .......just a short version of it

Ofcourse there are many long version of this and hopefully some member here is a real economist who can be able to explain it in more lengthty.

Thanks for the input Teacup, very informative.

[teacup]

Your welcome

I could write the whole paper about it, but I don’t want to re-live my uni years again!

Edited September 6, 2008 by teacup

[h90]

The inflation is apparent is looking at cost rises in most everything, but wouldn't have a clue on how you determine unemployed.

When you have 4 guys delivering bottled water, or 3-4 'technicians' installing an ADSL line (I had 5 from CAT), unemployment is probably lowish.

4 technican need 1 complete day to install two simple aircons in the most ugly (by Thai standards) way I have seen yet.

unemployment 0

half of the "technican" get beheaded from the house owner: negative unemployment rate

[Boater]

Also with Thailand, if you do not work, you do not eat!.... not like the western countries where you can claim Hand Outs.....

[Wrong Turn]

A short definitiion of stagflation is slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment

Thailand is showing 2007 unemployment of 1.7% (per CIA). My question is how do they know? Since they have no unemployment compensation and a very small percentage file any taxes, what do they base this on? Am I missing something here or do they just want to appear as one of the worlds lowest in unemployment.

So if you can't believe the employment figures and the inflation depends on who's doing the figuring, how do you know if the country is going into stagflation or not?

The US for example, fudges unemployment statistics, to push them down. U3, U4, U5, U6, are different categories of unemployment bases on how UE is defined.

Economic growth numbers are also fudged, and pushed higher than they actually are.

So my question is:

Are the number in Thailand on, 1. unemployment and 2. economic growth, reliable?

Many lessor developed nations have more honest numbers than the nations in the west.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

A short definitiion of stagflation is slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment

Thailand is showing 2007 unemployment of 1.7% (per CIA). My question is how do they know? Since they have no unemployment compensation and a very small percentage file any taxes, what do they base this on? Am I missing something here or do they just want to appear as one of the worlds lowest in unemployment.

So if you can't believe the employment figures and the inflation depends on who's doing the figuring, how do you know if the country is going into stagflation or not?

The US for example, fudges unemployment statistics, to push them down. U3, U4, U5, U6, are different categories of unemployment bases on how UE is defined.

Economic growth numbers are also fudged, and pushed higher than they actually are.

Gov.

So my question is:

Are the number in Thailand on, 1. unemployment and 2. economic growth, reliable?

Many lessor developed nations have more honest numbers than the nations in the west.

How can the unemployment figures in LOS be at all meaningfull. Many of the employed are self employed or planting rice for someone. I find it highly doubtfull that they are submitting any kind of paperwork to the gov. I read that only 5% of Thais file taxes Even if that is very exagerated it still means that the Gov does not know who's working or not. So 1.7% unemployed is just a number to make the Gov. look good.

I think the biggest difference between the third world counties and the west is experience in getting the majority to believe the lies.

[dumball]

The inflation is apparent is looking at cost rises in most everything, but wouldn't have a clue on how you determine unemployed.

When you have 4 guys delivering bottled water, or 3-4 'technicians' installing an ADSL line (I had 5 from CAT), unemployment is probably lowish.

4 technican need 1 complete day to install two simple aircons in the most ugly (by Thai standards) way I have seen yet.

unemployment 0

half of the "technican" get beheaded from the house owner: negative unemployment rate

And then , of course , there is a lot of karma and luck as to whether or not it works efficiently , how many have you seen using pressure guages or checking in/out temperature differential ?