Foreign Arrivals Drop Sharply Due To Political Turmoil

[LaoPo]

So what? Sars, Bali bombings, Bird flu, Tsunami etc etc. Thailand has bounced back every time, can't see why it should be different now...

... and that is what the Thais are thinking as well. Maybe finally we have reached the straw that breaks the camels' back. To this date I have not seen any specials advertised and a good number of hotels still tell us they are "full" for peak season and hope for walk-ins.

A friend of mine works in a hotel in Nai Thon with 120 rooms, current occupancy is 2 rooms, last week it was 5. How a staff of 160 shall be fed from this income is nothing short of a mystery.

After a year or two of local mass unemployment, missing tax incomes for the government, etc, maybe service will come back to the 'Land of Smiles". My hopes are not high though, knowing that the locals rather raise prices and diminish service when business is down.

You won't see a hotel in the West with 120 rooms and a staff of 160

LaoPo

[midas]

So what? Sars, Bali bombings, Bird flu, Tsunami etc etc. Thailand has bounced back every time, can't see why it should be different now...

... and that is what the Thais are thinking as well. Maybe finally we have reached the straw that breaks the camels' back. To this date I have not seen any specials advertised and a good number of hotels still tell us they are "full" for peak season and hope for walk-ins.

A friend of mine works in a hotel in Nai Thon with 120 rooms, current occupancy is 2 rooms, last week it was 5. How a staff of 160 shall be fed from this income is nothing short of a mystery.

After a year or two of local mass unemployment, missing tax incomes for the government, etc, maybe service will come back to the 'Land of Smiles". My hopes are not high though, knowing that the locals rather raise prices and diminish service when business is down.

You won't see a hotel in the West with 120 rooms and a staff of 160

LaoPo

Maybe from all this will learn the essentials of productivity per worker........?

Its similar to huge number of people who are employed in supermarkets

who just stand at the end of the ailes ..............why are they there

and it must be a waste of money.....................?

[happyman32]

Has anybody heard of demographics??

Maybe there could be a more useful statistic than simply "Country of Origin" to analyse tourist arrivals.

My suggestion for a survey to be conducted of all arrivals and ad-hoc analysis:

- Backpackers - they are quite impervious to economic situations as they are at "rock-bottom" pricing anyway, but they would be of Generation Y variety (Baby Boomer kids and Generation Z) and so there may be a small spike in these numbers.

- Single Men under 30 - as above, may be in decline due to economics, but it is said that Generation Y spend money like there is no tomorrow, love credit and live at home anyway so have a secure "safety net". They may come for the beer, but enjoy free sex rather than the expensive prices charged here (cheaper to boom-boom Thai lady in farang land if that is your inclination - don't beieve me?? - i can supply numbers for Oz as of early this year).

- Young couples - from countries like Australia it is still cheaper to vacation overseas than in the home country, but coupledom is seeing a serious decline.....

- Young families / Generation X (30 - 45) - they tend to have huge education expenses to contend with for their kids due to "Economic Rationalism/User Pays) and unstable jobs and so are seriously unlikely now to take a long haul vacation to any "unfriendly" country.

- Single Men aged 30 -45 - due to the increasing "cost" for boom-boom in LOS, need for condies, ripoffs, aggression directed towards them - as posted earlier they are seriously looking elsewhere for fun. I have now intensely frequented boom-boom bars in Pattaya, all over Isaan, Bangkok, Cambodia, Jakarta, Laos and now Phuket there are some really obvious trends emerging - like "Forget Thailand for Fun!!" I noticed interestingly large numbers of Asian girls from Japan, China?? and Korea?? frequenting Angkor Wat on limited time package tours when I went there last year - and lots of new hotels. I notice very few of them in Thailand. Note 2 - there's been a few suicides and lot of depression with this group that live in LOS as they throw their "last dice" here or get hooked up with a lady, but have not a source of income from back home and find staying here very difficult.

- Men 45-55 - the Baby Boomers - what can I say - they tend to be divorced, prefer to drink beer than fuss with condies and again are considering alternative countries for boom-boom if not attached or retired here (topic is "Tourist Arrivals"). By the way Malaysia is making a big push to locate as many retirees as they can in their country.

- Men 55+ - they are relatively few in number and tend to want to "stay here" - demand for condie use low - lucky them - they get the luxury of a "retirement Visa"!

- Females aged 20 - 90?? - just forget them as an insignificant contributor.

When in my dream life I see the tourism numbers cut like this with a 10-year history to cover at least 1 economic cycle then I will take notice of tourism numbers and what effects them. This compared with all the statistical crap and opinions I currently see. Let me just say that IMHO the 30% drop in arrivals is not just due to political turmoil or economics!! I never just travelled/take my holidays somewhere cos its cheap - I can just rent my friend's beach-side holiday house every year of my life in my home country if I wanted that.

[ray23]

Unfortuantely you have to watch this to uderstand the baht situation here. This does not look like good news for Thailand to me, matter a fact like sitting a 50 gallon drum on top of a fire sooner or later it will explode.

Unless things are very differnt a bunch of unarmed cops are not going to stop the DAAD tonight, My understanding is the gathering has already started I don't look for much to happen until Lao Kao and yabba have been consumed. But the fact is these two groups have went at each oother twice already. I hope the DAAD stays at the bridge but I'm not betting on it. This may be good for my rate of exchange but I can do without a few baht, it is not good for the Tourist industry rather then see this happen.

In watching Bloomberg the week Thailand has 285 Billion Dollars ( I'm sorry it does say Dollars)to play this sell the dollar game, so I'm not hoping for a lot real fast. I think they will take it as far a they can and that kind of capitol tha could be long ways. The stakes are far higher then just money. The Bangkok Post is flat saying who is calling the shots.

So you can send all the folks out and spend fairy tales all you want. But communication these days is instant. the international news has already picked this up. I cant tell you how many of my friends have urged me to leave. They don't know this business a usual and neithre does the average tourist.

I think we are enteing a new chapter and think it will be violent one. So lets see we can Cambodia and enjoy the beach at less cost. Or we can go to Thailand and see how this all works out. What would you do with no knowledge of the area? If I didn't understand Thailand and this being a pert of it, knowing all I have to do is stay way from these people and have the rest of the country to play in I darn sure would not be coming here.

Yes I feel fo the workers, but the power players don't and they doing this to themselves.

"Thaksin 'still boss'

Post Reporters

A People Power party envoy is believed to be on his way to London to submit the potential line-up of the Somchai Wongsawat cabinet for the perusal of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Yongyuth Tiyapairat, a former deputy leader of the People Power party, has been ordered to Britain by new prime minister Somchai Wongsawat to update Mr Thaksin on the political situation and seek his advice on allotment of cabinet seats, a source in the PPP said.

Some changes could be made to the proposed line-up based on his advice.

The report of the list being delivered to London came after His Majesty the King on Thursday endorsed the nomination of deputy PPP leader Somchai Wongsawat as the new prime minister.

The royal command appointing Mr Somchai was accepted by Parliament President Chai Chidchob who was granted an audience with the King to nominate Mr Somchai at Klai Kangwon Palace in Hua Hin.

The source said the line-up has yet to be finalised. It is being prepared by core party members, including Mr Yongyuth and deputy PPP leader Sompong Amornwiwat and is expected to be finalised on Sunday, before being readied for royal endorsement.

The source said attempts are under way to weaken the political clout of former Thai Rak Thai executive Newin Chidchob who commands the rebellious Friends of Newin faction in the PPP.

The faction, which has 73 MPs under its wing, opposed Mr Somchai's nomination but then had a change of heart.

The source said Mr Sompong is likely to be moved from the Justice Ministry to the Interior Ministry, where he is expected to challenge Mr Newin's clout.

It is also reported that the Friends of Newin faction will lose the seat being held by Supol Fongngam, deputy interior minister.

The post is not in the quota held by the Friends of Newin group as claimed, said the source.

Rifts over the allocation of cabinet seats in the faction are also emerging.

Chaiya Promma, a member of the Friends of Newin group, said the four ministers in the group's quota should be changed. The group should meet to discuss candidates for the cabinet posts.

"If the four ministers retain the seats, there will be problems. I call for changes so that we can compare their performance," he said, adding some MPs have been lobbying others to support them for cabinet portfolios.

A group of 40 PPP MPs, meanwhile, signed a petition to block Puea Pandin leader Suvit Khunkitti from joining the cabinet. Their move follows speculation he will be named industry minister.

PPP MP for Lop Buri Suchart Lainamngern, said the party MPs question Mr Suvit's loyalty, citing the Puea Pandin leader's pullout from the Samak Sundaravej government in late July.

Chaiyos Jiramethakarn, spokesman for the Puea Pandin party, shrugged off the campaign, saying the move did not create conflict, although it might have spoiled the atmosphere.

He also criticised the PPP for meddling in Puea Pandin's affairs.

PAD core leader Chamlong Srimuang said Thursday that the PAD would continue its protest and would not negotiate with Mr Somchai.

Sondhi Limthongkul, another PAD core leader, said he would unveil the PAD's proposal for a new political order on Monday, and clear any questions over the issue.

PAD coordinator Suriyasai Katasila said the group has agreed on three points — the protest will continue without any negotiations with the government, it will oppose constitution amendments and it will push for a new political order.

Following royal endorsement, Mr Somchai promised to work to achieve national reconciliation and unity.

Quoting Mr Chai, he said the King urged the quick formation of a new cabinet to tackle the country's problems.

He said the government expects to deliver its policy statement on Sept 25."

[Samuian]

Thailand to lose 70 Billion Baht if turmoil continues

No problem once PAD starts running things. They can print more money. It's a great way of creating wealth. Just ask PAD's soulmates in Zimbabwe. Billionaires abound.

Well, you mean they should copy Lehman Broth. and the like?

I think they tend to pirate only the good stuff...

[happyman32]

BTW - hasn't Thailand collected all this information for years on the Tourist Arrival Cards???

Wonder what black hole the information disappears into.

You know I think my dream could be realised with a Graduate Student working on the project for 1 week!!!!!

[ray23]

Speculating I think not, no just reading the news that, anyone, anywhere and at anytime can do all over the world we live in today.

Read a story prior to this where the new PM had a phone conversation last night the PAD and began to talk.

This Thaksin story breaks and you get this:

What in the world are they thinking or are they at all

From the Thailand Outlook channel

Chamlong Vows to Drive out People Power Govt and Safeguard Charter

UPDATE : 19 September 2008

"Chamlong Srimuang, a core People's Alliance for Democracy leader, vowed the PAD will disperse as soon as it has achieved its main objectives, which are to drive out the People Power Party government and to safeguard the 2007 Constitution.

Chamlong Srimuang thanked the PAD protesters for their support of the PAD movement.

He explained that although a new premier has been appointed, the PAD will continue to rally until its most important objectives are met. He reiterated the PAD’s long-standing goals of safeguarding the 2007 charter and to drive out the People Power government to pave the way for new politics.

Chamlong promised that the PAD will disperse immediately as soon as these objectives are achieved.

He claimed that the current national problems must be blamed on the ‘self-serving’ government and pointed out that while the PPP-administration strives to further its own interest, the PAD strives to better the nation’s interest.

The PAD leader added there is a growing interest in the PAD’s proposal for new politics. Chamlong believed both the public and academics are curious to know how exactly new politics will differ from the old politics of Thailand. He stated that this will be a good opportunity for the PAD to inform the public on its ideas and beliefs.

Lastly, Chamlong informed the PAD protesters that there are reports of a large number of undercover police officers making their way to Government House. Security at and around Government House has been stepped up in response to the information and the National Democratic Alliance against Dictatorship's large-scale gathering at Sanam Luang this evening."

[PanzerJohn]

How nice to meet another millionaire here!. Are you one of the weekend variety or a real one like myself?. I only work for $2000 an hour. I don't have a condo, only the minor rich have those, my suite at the Peninsula provides all I need and my estate in Chang Mai is ideal for weekends when I feel the need to escape the hustle and bustle. We must meet up at the Jockey Club one night, I expect you are a member there?

[OlRedEyes]

BTW - hasn't Thailand collected all this information for years on the Tourist Arrival Cards???

Wonder what black hole the information disappears into.

You know I think my dream could be realised with a Graduate Student working on the project for 1 week!!!!!

As I continue to notice - unfounded speculation is rife......................................

Jeez I hate insisting on the Scientific Method of analysis of a problem

BTW I thought Rugby was a game in which 3 men tried to push 4 heads into 5 mens' behinds!!

And where exactly is Cambridge/Poxford????????????????

Sire,

To wit, was that a decent class of insult?? Methinks you are sooooooooooooooo hi-so class, me just booga booga so-so class. And yes I misspelt Cambridge - I think Cambodge is a more appropriate spelling for your most humble erudite school of higher learning. And isn't there an annual boat race there - oops sorry - boat races there are a daily event paratken in ale-drenched establishments necessitating erudite students of such venues partaking copious quantities of an amber ale at a rather accelerated rate! (I did prefer cider when I lived for 2 years in Surrey - an area no doubt of much higher "class" than the location of Warwakshire - didn't some little hobbits come from The Shire??). Did I care to mention I retired a multi-millioaire at 38 after 2 years of work and pay no err tax in my western country for the income! And I bought a condominium in Bangkok for free? Methinks my Honours Engineering degree and top-student MBA from a globally-recognised unioversity, which by the way gained an invitation from the erudite McKinsey employers (by the way I was head-hunted by Philip Morris based on my Engineering results - ever had the pleasure of a good hunt? I now only ever work for US$1,000 as I am most conservatively the world's best at what I do), came in handy! Life is so grand!!

OOPSY A DAISY!! US$1,000/day+++!! If you ever return to the Land of the Big Damp may I suggest you purchase and use a copy of "Architecture of Southern England" by John Julius Norwich. It may also be prudent to avail yourself of memberships of National Trust and National Heritage to facilitate entry into the reviewed venues. Enuff said to youse all. Red Card being slowly revealed from referee pocket............

Talking to yourself again? Lost the meds?

[LaoPo]

..stupid me...thinking this topic was about foreign arrivals...dropping.

Have to see a shrink now.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

BTW, Are there head shrinkers in Thailand??

Do you need to shrink your head ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shrunken_head

Hmmm...I am satisfied with mine...

LaoPo

[ozzydom]

Off Topic posts removed, keep them coming if your feeling lucky.

[LaoPo]

BTW, Are there head shrinkers in Thailand??

Do you need to shrink your head ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shrunken_head

Hmmm...I am satisfied with mine...

LaoPo

I need a serious piss-up with you.

With a head like that, talking about dropping foreign tourism ?

LaoPo

[happyman32]

BTW, Are there head shrinkers in Thailand??

Do you need to shrink your head ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shrunken_head

Hmmm...I am satisfied with mine...

LaoPo

I need a serious piss-up with you.

With a head like that, talking about dropping foreign tourism ?

LaoPo

Just fell off couch laughing.................................. running for meds...............

[ray23]

I'm very happy to say that last night was a non event. Maybe there will be a honeymoon period. That might give sometime for reality to settle in and things getting back closer to normal. I think that would be a good thing. Although there was a threat in refrence to moving the PAD out on October 10Th. Things were done very differently last night.

14 company's of poilce and soldiers deployed in three sqirmish lines, first two lines Sheild and batons third line all the riot equipment. They meant busines this time and stood a chance, New Sheriff in town

It might have been the honeymoon period and it might be clearer thinking time will tell. If it's clearer think it might just extend beyond this apect.