Flu Will Hit World Hard, Expert Says

[xbusman]

The Associated Press, Reuters

Friday, November 26, 2004

BANGKOK The bird flu virus that rampaged across much of Asia this year is likely to be the cause of the next human flu pandemic, which could hit up to 30 percent of the world's people, a top international expert said on Thursday.

The expert, Dr. Klaus Stohr, who coordinates the World Health Organization's Global Influenza Program, stated that there was no question about whether another influenza pandemic would sweep through the world's more than six billion people, only a question of when.

"There are estimates that would put the number of deaths in the range between two and seven million, and the number of people affected will go beyond the billions as 25 to 30 percent will fall ill," Stohr said. Referring to the avian flu virus A(H5N1), which has forced Asian governments to kill tens of millions of fowl in a vain attempt to wipe it out, he said, "This virus is certainly the most likely one which will cause the next pandemic."

Pandemics usually occur every 20 to 30 years when the genetic makeup of a flu strain changes so dramatically that people have little or no immunity built up from previous flu bouts.

"During the last 36 years, there has been no pandemic, and there is a conclusion now that we are closer to the next pandemic than we have ever been before," Stohr told reporters. "There is no reason to believe that we are going to be spared."

The bird flu virus has killed 32 people in Thailand and Vietnam this year.

Stohr said a mutated strain of the flu would most likely originate in Asia.

There were three pandemics in the 20th century; all spread worldwide within a year of being detected.

The worst was the Spanish flu in 1918-19, when as many as 50 million people worldwide died.

[Ken]

Just wondering if the "flu shot" is available anywhere in Thailand? I've never heard of anyone getting it here, but I used to always get the "yearly" one in the USA.

[Trevor]

http://www.mercola.com/2003/dec/13/flu_vaccine.htm

[paulfr]

Just a reminder that you cannot believe everything you read in the newspaper any more than what you hear "people say". Even if they do have a PhD. Scaring people benefits some like those selling newspapers or obscure scientists looking for the attention they cannot find back in the laboratory.

[Dickie]

I had influenza in the mid-seventies when I was 14/15. I was fit, healthy and usually untouched by germs. It laid me out for two weeks and a further week needed to eat some strength back into me so I could go back to school. A very nasty virus, I can understand why it kills so many people each year.