Future Direction Of The Thai Baht..

[Khun Bob]

Hi

I've been to the oanda.com website and got some graphs of ThaiBaht,

USDollar, EURo and Malaysian Ringit as a percentage change against the

GBPound. To be honest I thought that the Thai baht was pegged to the

USdollar in some way, but from the graphs I cant see how this is the case.

Anyway, I've started to notice recently that as the dollar has been losing

value against the pound the thai baht seem to have been increasing against

the pound. This seems to be un-characteristic - from what little i know of

this. I just wondered if anyone could explain and possibly sed a bit if

light on the baht's recent strength ? Also - can anyone comment on the

likely direction of the baht in the near term - ie 6 months to 1 year, if

that is possible ?

Thanks and look forward to hear from you all...

[PeaceBlondie]

As for the relationship between the Thai baht and the US$, could it be within a narrow band, fluctuating little more than 10% from year to year? Haven't the last couple of years only varied between 38 and 42? I'm thinking of converting maybe $1,800 from dollars to baht over the next 10 days, to use over the next three to five months. But that's only because I got 39.0:1 yesterday (minus 1% surcharge) and I think it's going to 37.5:1 very soon.

[Dickie]

I would have thought that George's 'weak dollar' strategy would have most septics dumping it for something else.

[PeaceBlondie]

I'm not a septic, I'm an American. And I'm trying to dump dollars quickly.

[Dickie]

I'm not a septic, I'm an American.  And I'm trying to dump dollars quickly.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Septic is Brit-speak rhyming slang. "Septic tank" == "Yank". If you are American then you ARE a Septic or, as the Aussies say it, a "Seppo".

[et33.com]

i think the baht is okay

after all

when the USD continue to fall

it will be shit for the country

but when the baht fall

behind the scene

the country has enough to self support

while the americans have in fact billions and billions of bonds in debts to other countries

it a farce that the common folks didn't know that their children's future had been sold out years and years ago

america seems to be holding up solely by it's big guns and nosy bullets

creating fear and war around the world consistantly to rob resources and land

there's nothing new

except that they are now robbing their own people blind again

good luck to those who are still sleeping in america

irony is that other countries can't afford to have america going down

at least not yet... but it will happen sooner or later...

remember osama is a product of CIA and countless others as well...

i am not anti-america

if anyone bother to check the bond status of the country

you will realise it's the facts and the truth...

every broke on the trading market worth their pay knew about this fact

[PeaceBlondie]

I'm not a septic, I'm an American.  And I'm trying to dump dollars quickly.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Septic is Brit-speak rhyming slang. "Septic tank" == "Yank". If you are American then you ARE a Septic or, as the Aussies say it, a "Seppo".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually, I knew that only because Brits and Aussies have been using that term lately, but that doesn't mean I'm septic.

Well, you can figure out what "Brit" rhymes with, but I won't call you that.

Anyway, I continue to dump dollars in exchange for baht, and wonder where it will end.

[Dickie]

I'm not a septic, I'm an American.  And I'm trying to dump dollars quickly.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Septic is Brit-speak rhyming slang. "Septic tank" == "Yank". If you are American then you ARE a Septic or, as the Aussies say it, a "Seppo".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually, I knew that only because Brits and Aussies have been using that term lately, but that doesn't mean I'm septic.

Well, you can figure out what "Brit" rhymes with, but I won't call you that.

Anyway, I continue to dump dollars in exchange for baht, and wonder where it will end.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Errr.... it's short for British . Anyway I didn't call you septic I said you are a Septic. Different thing entirely.

As to where it will end: dunno. Gorgeous George is desperately trying to help US exporters by driving down the cost of buying US. I don't think the oil producers like the idea of weak dollar as it reduces their screw from selling the black-stuff priced, as it is, in dollars. If they opt to price on another currency then your selling of dollars for baht may look like good planning.

[lovethailandlongtime]

Was wondering,i will coming to LOS from uk and was thinking of purchasin us$ traveller cheques..Would i get a better deal if i was to get euro cheques instead?and does anyone know the rate (approx) i would get??(havnt had a chance to gt to the bank and find out yet)

[Dickie]

Was wondering,i will coming to LOS from uk and was thinking of purchasin us$ traveller cheques..Would i get a better deal if i was to get euro cheques instead?and does anyone know the rate (approx) i would get??(havnt had a chance to gt to the bank and find out yet)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I took Sterling TC's, you don't get shafted twice when converting.

[usatrader]

when the USD continue to fall

it will be shit for the country

but when the baht fall

behind the scene

the country has enough to self support

while the americans have in fact billions and billions of bonds in debts to other countries

it a farce that the common folks didn't know that their children's future had been sold out years and years ago

america seems to be holding up solely by it's big guns and nosy bullets

creating fear and war around the world consistantly to rob resources and land

there's nothing new

except that they are now robbing their own people blind again

good luck to those who are still sleeping in America

irony is that other countries can't afford to have america going down

at least not yet... but it will happen sooner or later...

remember osama is a product of CIA and countless others as well...

i am not anti-america

if anyone bother to check the bond status of the country

you will realise it's the facts and the truth...

every broke on the trading market worth their pay knew about this fact

Well, being a skeptic of a septic or seppo as the case might be, I did bother to check.

Realizing that today the most popular of sport is septic thumping and demise hoping, all in the spirit of, how do the German’s say, Schadefreude one owes a little spin of a different sort no matter the popularity of Schadenfreude today.

Public debt ("national debt" or "government debt") is money owed by government, at any level (municipal government, regional government, national government), which will indirectly be considered a debt of the citizens.

Public debt is divided into internal debt, owed to lenders within the country, and external debt, owed to foreign lenders. It consists of government bonds, bank loans, and according to some measures, unfunded liabilities such as pension plan payments and goods and services the government has contracted for but not yet paid.

To see how various countries public debt stand as a most important factor as a % of GNP. (2004 estimate)

3 Japan 154.60%

10 Italy 106.40%

13 Belgium 102.00%

23 Canada 77.00%

32 France 68.80%

33 Austria 67.60%

36 Germany 64.20%

38 Spain 62.70%

39 United States 62.40%

50 Switzerland 57.10%

55 Netherlands 54.10%

58 Sweden 51.80%

59 United Kingdom 51.00%

Source:

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbo...r/2186rank.html

Who holds US external Debt

1-Japan—2-Mainland China—3-United Kingdom—4-Caribbean Banking—5-Korea—6-Taiwan—7-Hong Kong—8-Switzerland—9-OPEC—

These 9 countries hold 75.8% of the US’s external Debt Totaling 1.8548 Trillion.

Source:

http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

Likewise, there are different perspectives than these regurgitated Schadenfreude inspired “hoping for the demise” perspectives so often taken as unfettered undeniable facts.

Anyhow, below is another equally plausible and likely perspective as to what is happening in the currency reality of today

Weak greenback 'helps world economy'

Key governments are showing little interest in stopping the decline of the US dollar. A Morgan Stanley chief tells Malcolm Maiden why.

A "broken" world economy is being repaired as the value of the US dollar declines, the head of Morgan Stanley's operations outside America said yesterday.

If the fall in the US dollar continues in an orderly fashion it could correct imbalances in the world economy, Mr Newhouse said, by stabilising or reducing America's external deficits, slowing US household consumption and easing the household debt burden and, outside the US, pushing economies including Europe towards measures that stimulate internal demand to compensate for lower revenue from exports into the US. Europe had so far "taken none of the growth burden off the United States . . . their economies have been too dependent on exports", he said

Source:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/Business/Wea...l?oneclick=true

That is all!

[Tippaporn]

Was wondering,i will coming to LOS from uk and was thinking of purchasin us$ traveller cheques..Would i get a better deal if i was to get euro cheques instead?and does anyone know the rate (approx) i would get??(havnt had a chance to gt to the bank and find out yet)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I took Sterling TC's, you don't get shafted twice when converting.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't quite understand why anyone would trouble with traveller cheques. I use an ATM card anywhere in the world. So much more convenient and much less costly, not to mention you don't have to worry about losing the cheques (of course, the ATM is susceptible to loss, also).

[Dickie]

I don't quite understand why anyone would trouble with traveller cheques.  I use an ATM card anywhere in the world.  So much more convenient and much less costly, not to mention you don't have to worry about losing the cheques (of course, the ATM is susceptible to loss, also). 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

ATM withdrawals are notorious for bad exchange rates. TC's also get a better exchange rate than cash in many places, LoS being one of them.

[Wanderer]

I'm not a septic, I'm an American.  And I'm trying to dump dollars quickly.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Septic is Brit-speak rhyming slang. "Septic tank" == "Yank". If you are American then you ARE a Septic or, as the Aussies say it, a "Seppo".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually, I knew that only because Brits and Aussies have been using that term lately, but that doesn't mean I'm septic.

Well, you can figure out what "Brit" rhymes with, but I won't call you that.

Anyway, I continue to dump dollars in exchange for baht, and wonder where it will end.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Errr.... it's short for British . Anyway I didn't call you septic I said you are a Septic. Different thing entirely.

As to where it will end: dunno. Gorgeous George is desperately trying to help US exporters by driving down the cost of buying US. I don't think the oil producers like the idea of weak dollar as it reduces their screw from selling the black-stuff priced, as it is, in dollars. If they opt to price on another currency then your selling of dollars for baht may look like good planning.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Unfortunatly it is a bit late for dumping dollars, trust me as i am getting paid in them and my wages have spirelled downwards for the last few months, if i had the choice i would hold them in a dollar account until things improve or until that &lt;deleted&gt; Bush goes away. Idon't think it will get much worst (i hope). Yahoo finance also does a 2 yaear graph for currencies which gives a good picture

[ZOVOX]

I'm not a septic, I'm an American.  And I'm trying to dump dollars quickly.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Septic is Brit-speak rhyming slang. "Septic tank" == "Yank". If you are American then you ARE a Septic or, as the Aussies say it, a "Seppo".

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually, I knew that only because Brits and Aussies have been using that term lately, but that doesn't mean I'm septic.

Well, you can figure out what "Brit" rhymes with, but I won't call you that.

Anyway, I continue to dump dollars in exchange for baht, and wonder where it will end.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Errr.... it's short for British . Anyway I didn't call you septic I said you are a Septic. Different thing entirely.

As to where it will end: dunno. Gorgeous George is desperately trying to help US exporters by driving down the cost of buying US. I don't think the oil producers like the idea of weak dollar as it reduces their screw from selling the black-stuff priced, as it is, in dollars. If they opt to price on another currency then your selling of dollars for baht may look like good planning.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Unfortunatly it is a bit late for dumping dollars, trust me as i am getting paid in them and my wages have spirelled downwards for the last few months, if i had the choice i would hold them in a dollar account until things improve or until that &lt;deleted&gt; Bush goes away. Idon't think it will get much worst (i hope). Yahoo finance also does a 2 yaear graph for currencies which gives a good picture

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I've been following the business reports on bloomberg and bbc world, and they all say the u.s dollar has more to fall - sorry to give you the bad news. I agree with you that bush is &lt;deleted&gt;, but the &lt;deleted&gt; going to be there for another 4 years, so i wouldn't hold your breath !!

[Khun Bob]

Hi and thanks for your replies - some intersting points - seems like the dollar has further to go down, but i'm still wondering about the reationship between the dollar and the thai baht...

Some more graphs. The next one seems to be saying that over the past month the baht has been holding against gbp, but appears to be on a downward trend now - but it may be just hlding for a bit till the dollar goes down more ?

Next graph shows gbp, eur, thb, lak and myr against the dollar over the past year. Seems like thb is following eur and gbp here in the last three months ?

Next three show change of gbp, usd, myr and lak (except 10yr) against thb. I was quite surprised with this one as the gbp is now worth 90% more in thb terms than 10 years ago and the trend for gbp and eur certainly seems to be upward at the moment.

Over past year

Over past 5 years

Over past 10 years

All your comments appreciated - especially any insights you have into the thai bahts relationship with the usd, gbp and eur. If you have any information of near term directions this would be intersting for all readers...

Look forward to see your comments...

[pantarei]

Likewise, there are different perspectives than these regurgitated Schadenfreude inspired “hoping for the demise” perspectives so often taken as unfettered  undeniable facts.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Excellent post.

Lee Kuan Yew may not be as knowledgeable as the Schadenfreude herd but he did turn Singapore from a Third World country with no natural resources to one of the most economically successful nations in the world.

<<So is the U.S. economy becoming old hat in Asia? No, according to at least one of the region's best-known thinkers, Lee Kuan Yew, minister mentor of Singapore.

"America is the most dynamic economy in the world,'' Lee said last week at a seminar organized by BusinessWeek in Bangkok.

Lee's comments were in response to a question by an American biotech executive who lamented that the U.S. is having difficulty competing globally. ``I'm completely of the contrary view,'' Lee said.

Europe, Lee noted, has myriad structural challenges that hamper economic efficiency and productivity. Japan, too, will ``take some time to pick up'' because of numerous impediments to growth, Lee added. And with China's economy very much a work in progress, the U.S. economy wins top billing.>>

"Remember that just 20 years ago, Japan was supposed to eclipse the U.S. and rule the world. These days, it's grappling with deflation, an aging population and modest growth. It's not a bad thing to have a sober observer or two point out that things may not turn out as the herd expects."

Source:

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=1...id=aueEMha4bP2I

[RubbaJohnny]

Interesting to see these figures in perspective

when the USD continue to fall

it will be shit for the country

but when the baht fall

behind the scene

the country has enough to self support

while the americans have in fact billions and billions of bonds in debts to other countries

it a farce that the common folks didn't know that their children's future had been sold out years and years ago

america seems to be holding up solely by it's big guns and nosy bullets

creating fear and war around the world consistantly to rob resources and land

there's nothing new

except that they are now robbing their own people blind again

good luck to those who are still sleeping in America

irony is that other countries can't afford to have america going down

at least not yet... but it will happen sooner or later...

remember osama is a product of CIA and countless others as well...

i am not anti-america

if anyone bother to check the bond status of the country

you will realise it's the facts and the truth...

every broke on the trading market worth their pay knew about this fact

Well, being a skeptic of a septic or seppo as the case might be, I did bother to check.

Realizing that today the most popular of sport is septic thumping and demise hoping, all in the spirit of, how do the German's say, Schadefreude one owes a little spin of a different sort no matter the popularity of Schadenfreude today.

Public debt ("national debt" or "government debt") is money owed by government, at any level (municipal government, regional government, national government), which will indirectly be considered a debt of the citizens.

Public debt is divided into internal debt, owed to lenders within the country, and external debt, owed to foreign lenders. It consists of government bonds, bank loans, and according to some measures, unfunded liabilities such as pension plan payments and goods and services the government has contracted for but not yet paid.

To see how various countries public debt stand as a most important factor as a % of GNP. (2004 estimate)

3 Japan 154.60%

10 Italy 106.40%

13 Belgium 102.00%

23 Canada 77.00%

32 France 68.80%

33 Austria 67.60%

36 Germany 64.20%

38 Spain 62.70%

39 United States 62.40%

50 Switzerland 57.10%

55 Netherlands 54.10%

58 Sweden 51.80%

59 United Kingdom 51.00%

Source:

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbo...r/2186rank.html

Who holds US external Debt

1-Japan—2-Mainland China—3-United Kingdom—4-Caribbean Banking—5-Korea—6-Taiwan—7-Hong Kong—8-Switzerland—9-OPEC—

These 9 countries hold 75.8% of the US's external Debt Totaling 1.8548 Trillion.

Source:

http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

Likewise, there are different perspectives than these regurgitated Schadenfreude inspired "hoping for the demise" perspectives so often taken as unfettered undeniable facts.

Anyhow, below is another equally plausible and likely perspective as to what is happening in the currency reality of today

Weak greenback 'helps world economy'

Key governments are showing little interest in stopping the decline of the US dollar. A Morgan Stanley chief tells Malcolm Maiden why.

A "broken" world economy is being repaired as the value of the US dollar declines, the head of Morgan Stanley's operations outside America said yesterday.

If the fall in the US dollar continues in an orderly fashion it could correct imbalances in the world economy, Mr Newhouse said, by stabilising or reducing America's external deficits, slowing US household consumption and easing the household debt burden and, outside the US, pushing economies including Europe towards measures that stimulate internal demand to compensate for lower revenue from exports into the US. Europe had so far "taken none of the growth burden off the United States . . . their economies have been too dependent on exports", he said

Source:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/Business/Wea...l?oneclick=true

That is all!

[kevkev1888]

Not too sure of the relevance of 2004 figures.

Hasn't allot changed since then?

[MAJIC]

Was wondering,i will coming to LOS from uk and was thinking of purchasin us$ traveller cheques..Would i get a better deal if i was to get euro cheques instead?and does anyone know the rate (approx) i would get??(havnt had a chance to gt to the bank and find out yet)

I took Sterling TC's, you don't get shafted twice when converting.

I don't quite understand why anyone would trouble with traveller cheques. I use an ATM card anywhere in the world. So much more convenient and much less costly, not to mention you don't have to worry about losing the cheques (of course, the ATM is susceptible to loss, also).

In my case the reason I always get travellers cheques: is that my Bank provides them free,and delivered to my home, and to their Bank customers,with no fees or commission deducted.

Secondly,if you take down the numbers of each cheque (and keep seperately in a safe place) and you lose them or they are stolen,contact American Express and they will wire replacements,to a Bank of your choice.

Of course arguably,they may/....probably make money on the exchange rate,but that's another story. but you will get the exchange rate of your TCs on the day of cashing them,Win or Lose?

Edited August 6, 2011 by MAJIC

[Chivas]

As for the relationship between the Thai baht and the US$, could it be within a narrow band, fluctuating little more than 10% from year to year? Haven't the last couple of years only varied between 38 and 42? I'm thinking of converting maybe $1,800 from dollars to baht over the next 10 days, to use over the next three to five months. But that's only because I got 39.0:1 yesterday (minus 1% surcharge) and I think it's going to 37.5:1 very soon.

Be nice if this was still the case !!