Cambodia Threatens War With Thailand Within 24 Hours

[plachon]

Nah it won't get this far.

Guess who is Hun Sen's best friend ...... Thaksin Shinawatra! Look at newspaper reports earlier this year.

In my opinion this is an elaborate setup. There will be some shooting and some death. Then all of a sudden Thaksin shows up, makes peace with Hun Sen and all of Thailand will love him again.

Offcourse there is more scenario's possible.

Waerth

While I would be the first to admit stranger things have happened in the convoluted border politics of Thailand and her neighbours, I have a hunch that it's not going to transpire like this. In fact, Toxin, if he knows whats good for him won't be turning up on Thai soil for another two decades or more, at least if he knows what's good for him. Even dressing as a monk or nun won't swing it for him now. Additionally, becuase the border deal for casino with Cambo, brokered by Noppadope essentially fell through, I could well imagine that Toxin and Hun Sen may have fallen out of love and won't be having too many more chummy rounds of golf in the near future. plus Hun Sen has every reason to see that these days Toxin is a loser and maybe he's not the best person to be doing deals with and what you get is further marginalisation of Toxin in his old playground.

Nah, I think this is Somchai trying to use up his last ace in trying to divert public attention away from his own failings in BKK by using the trusty old nationalist trump card over a border spat, thus buying him time with PAD to find some common ground. Deperate tactics in desperate times for the Thai govt.

[Moonrakers]

Well this thread is attracting a fair few readers already.

I don't think that there is a question of IF this will escalate, rather by HOW MUCH.

Let's hope it doesn't get too much worse.

[quiksilva]

Their timing is impeccable...

**shakes head**

[stepenwolf1958]

Guys, are you serious???Anyone wanna bet there WILL BE NO WAR?All of this is just shooting blanks.Not even close to war and i am wondering what the Thais will do now?They have ultimatum and in HOURS, so i am really wondering how far Thais can go with this messy situation. As far as i know them, they will understand that the last thing on this war, with internall problems, would be some war.

I am waiting for bets. For sure there is no any good war - both sides know that....Incidents yes but WAR???I doubt it.

[WAERTH]

Nah it won't get this far.

Guess who is Hun Sen's best friend ...... Thaksin Shinawatra! Look at newspaper reports earlier this year.

In my opinion this is an elaborate setup. There will be some shooting and some death. Then all of a sudden Thaksin shows up, makes peace with Hun Sen and all of Thailand will love him again.

Offcourse there is more scenario's possible.

Waerth

While I would be the first to admit stranger things have happened in the convoluted border politics of Thailand and her neighbours, I have a hunch that it's not going to transpire like this. In fact, Toxin, if he knows whats good for him won't be turning up on Thai soil for another two decades or more, at least if he knows what's good for him. Even dressing as a monk or nun won't swing it for him now. Additionally, becuase the border deal for casino with Cambo, brokered by Noppadope essentially fell through, I could well imagine that Toxin and Hun Sen may have fallen out of love and won't be having too many more chummy rounds of golf in the near future. plus Hun Sen has every reason to see that these days Toxin is a loser and maybe he's not the best person to be doing deals with and what you get is further marginalisation of Toxin in his old playground.

Nah, I think this is Somchai trying to use up his last ace in trying to divert public attention away from his own failings in BKK by using the trusty old nationalist trump card over a border spat, thus buying him time with PAD to find some common ground. Deperate tactics in desperate times for the Thai govt.

Hello Plachon. That is also an interesting theory. Off course many more are possible. It could have been instigated by the army themselves to take over power. Instigated by Pad. Or it could have been just hotheads prevailing. I have lived here for almost 10 years now and I have seen the country falling down in the past few years. I really hope things start to get better soon.

Worst is this will actually fuc_k up my visum run next week.

W

[Sheryl]

Just got a call from a Khmer friend stuck at the border. Fighting has broken out and the border is now closed...including the Aranyaprathet/Poipet crossing. All the Cambodians in the border market have been forced back into Cambodia.

According to my friend there may be shooting not just in the Preah Vihear area but other botrder spots as well. Although that part was hard to get, very noisy in the background and she was trather panicked. On TV they said that the Thai govt has ordered all Thai citizens in Cambodia to evacuate and is sending in planes to get them out.

I'm really worried about my Cambodian niece who is studying at Mahidol, if this gets as nasty as it seems to be she may have to leave and lose the semester. And somehow I doubt I'll get a tuition refund......

Not to mention the soldiers' lives that will be lost and the economic costs to both countires.

[mdechgan]

Nah it won't get this far.

Guess who is Hun Sen's best friend ...... Thaksin Shinawatra! Look at newspaper reports earlier this year.

In my opinion this is an elaborate setup. There will be some shooting and some death. Then all of a sudden Thaksin shows up, makes peace with Hun Sen and all of Thailand will love him again.

Offcourse there is more scenario's possible.

Waerth

While I would be the first to admit stranger things have happened in the convoluted border politics of Thailand and her neighbours, I have a hunch that it's not going to transpire like this. In fact, Toxin, if he knows whats good for him won't be turning up on Thai soil for another two decades or more, at least if he knows what's good for him. Even dressing as a monk or nun won't swing it for him now. Additionally, becuase the border deal for casino with Cambo, brokered by Noppadope essentially fell through, I could well imagine that Toxin and Hun Sen may have fallen out of love and won't be having too many more chummy rounds of golf in the near future. plus Hun Sen has every reason to see that these days Toxin is a loser and maybe he's not the best person to be doing deals with and what you get is further marginalisation of Toxin in his old playground.

Nah, I think this is Somchai trying to use up his last ace in trying to divert public attention away from his own failings in BKK by using the trusty old nationalist trump card over a border spat, thus buying him time with PAD to find some common ground. Deperate tactics in desperate times for the Thai govt.

plachons' idea is not too far fetched. It is realistically possible. Toxin still has much influence and investments in Cambodia.

However the timing of the incident is just too dam_n good to just be a coincidence. The entire incident could just be a playact.

Toxin winning a nobel peace prize? Hmm... he would like that.

Edited October 15, 2008 by mdechgan

[plachon]

Guys, are you serious???Anyone wanna bet there WILL BE NO WAR?All of this is just shooting blanks.Not even close to war and i am wondering what the Thais will do now?They have ultimatum and in HOURS, so i am really wondering how far Thais can go with this messy situation. As far as i know them, they will understand that the last thing on this war, with internall problems, would be some war.

I am waiting for bets. For sure there is no any good war - both sides know that....Incidents yes but WAR???I doubt it.

When it comes to Thai border spats, it's never full out "war" in the normal sense of the word, but rather a series of skirmishes at particular hotspots which may lead to a number of casualties on both sides. The Ban Rom Klao spat in 1987/88 was probably the worst one in recent memory, as it led to far more casualties on the Thai side than the Lao (assisted by some Vietnamese) and like now, was basically over business deals gone awry (there logs, here casinos and split of tourist booty) for some generals & poo yai. Ordinary Thais were kept in the dark though over Rom Klao (news blackout), whereas here the media is central to the nationalist game played by both sides. What the eventual outcome will be is anyone's guess and how many soldiers must die over a pile of rocks and a few hundred square metres of scrubby forest, but again deals will be cut behind closed doors that the general public and media will not be privvy to in deciding who gets what from the spoils of "war by any other name".

[Thaddeus]

According to my friend there may be shooting not just in the Preah Vihear area but other botrder spots as well.

How far does the sound from automatic weapons carry?

[h90]

If war does start the entire international community will blame Thailand for not backing down on hunsen's threats.

For my personal view. Threatening war was uncalled for. Thai has every reason to not submit to Cambodia's threats of war.

Worst case scenario. The U.S. backs Thailand, Vietnam and China backs Cambodia. Another world war.

Bad for Cambodia, Thailand invades and annexes Cambodia all the way to the Mekong river.

Bad for Thailand, Cambodia annexes a couple of Thai provinces.

Atleast the last two would clear the border dispute.

No no that's just a theater to distract from internal problems. Some dead ones, than a victory for everyone......

[bangkokrick]

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thai Foreign Minister Sompong Amornvivat urged Thai nationals in Cambodia to leave as soon as possible Wednesday after a gun-battle between troops along a disputed stretch of their border.

"Thai businessmen who have no need to be in Cambodia now, please rush back to Thailand," Sompong told reporters.

"We have our evacuation plan ready," he added.

Rick

[otherstuff1957]

According to my friend there may be shooting not just in the Preah Vihear area but other botrder spots as well.

How far does the sound from automatic weapons carry?

About 10km on a good day.

[george]

Two Thai troops injured in a clash with Cambodia

Two Thai troops were injured during a clash with Cambodian troops along Thai-Cambodia border on Wednesday, Army spokesman Sansern Kaeowkamnerd said.

Both suffered from sharpnels of explosives and were rushed to a hospital in Si Sa Kaet province.

-- The nation 2008-10-15

[george]

Fighting erupts on Thai-Cambodia border

PHNOM PENH: -- Thai and Cambodian soldiers clashed Wednesday in a disputed border region where the two countries lay claim to an ancient temple, the Thai military told CNN.

No casualties were reported in the fighting near the Preah Vihear temple, the military said.

Thai military officials are now trying to arrange emergency talks with their Cambodian counterparts, the military said.

Both countries posted troops in the area after the United Nations in July approved Cambodia's application to have the 11th-century temple listed as a World Heritage Site.

The temple sits atop a cliff on Cambodian soil but has its most accessible entrance on the Thai side. The two countries differ on whether some territory around the temple forms part of Thailand or Cambodia.

The International Court of Justice awarded the temple to Cambodia in 1962. However Thailand claims the 1.8 square mile (4.6 sq. km) area around it was never fully demarcated.

It said the Cambodian government used a map drawn during the French occupation of Cambodia -- a map that places the temple and surrounding area in Cambodian territory.

The United Nations' decision re-ignited tensions, with some in Thailand fearing it will make it difficult for their country to lay claim to disputed land around the temple.

Opposition parties in Thailand used the issue to attack the government, which initially backed the heritage listing.

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, who has been in power since 1985, portrayed the U.N. recognition as a national triumph in the run-up to the country's general elections.

The current flare-up began July 15, when Cambodian guards briefly detained three Thais who crossed into the area. Once they were let go, the three refused to leave the territory.

Cambodia claims Thailand sent troops to retrieve the trio and gradually built up their numbers. Thailand denies that, saying its troops are deployed in Thai territory.

A skirmish in early October left two Thai soldiers hurt.

A spokesman for the Royal Thai Air Force told CNN Wednesday that it has placed its entire fleet of fighter jets on stand-by.

A military transport aircraft is also ready to evacuate Thai citizens from Cambodia, but will need the permission of Cambodian authorities to cross the border.

-- CNN 2008-10-15

[plachon]

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thai Foreign Minister Sompong Amornvivat urged Thai nationals in Cambodia to leave as soon as possible Wednesday after a gun-battle between troops along a disputed stretch of their border.

"Thai businessmen who have no need to be in Cambodia now, please rush back to Thailand," Sompong told reporters.

"We have our evacuation plan ready," he added.

Rick

Jeez, if everyone runs now, it could give another excuse for Cambos whipped up by nationalist sentiment on their side to go on another looting and burning spree of Thai businesses and even, the Embassy again. Admittedly it has better security than before, but a wrong word or two by the leaders on either side could really turn things ugly for nationals and property of either side. Methinks this is the time for ASEAN to come of age and throwaway its outdated notions of non-interference in the internal politics of member countries, and solve this problem NOW, before it does spiral out of control.

There also needs to be a radical change in attitudes by Thais towards their neighbours, who've always been regarded as "little brothers" (Laos) or "dirty others" (Cambodians, Malays and Burmese) by the majority. This is a generalisation, admittedly, but I believe holds up under test conditions if most people did a spot opinion check of a sample of ten Thais they met in everyday life.

[Thaddeus]

According to my friend there may be shooting not just in the Preah Vihear area but other botrder spots as well.

How far does the sound from automatic weapons carry?

About 10km on a good day.

We could have had a little skirmish here then, no doubt I'll find out later.

[george]

Thailand urges citizens to leave Cambodia

BANGKOK: -- Thai Foreign Minister Sompong Amornvivat urged Thai nationals in Cambodia to leave as soon as possible Wednesday after a gun-battle between troops along a disputed stretch of their border.

"Thai businessmen who have no need to be in Cambodia now, please rush back to Thailand," Sompong told reporters.

-- Reuters 2008-10-15

[AlKing]

I can see 2 senarios to this problem:

1. JDA (Joint Development Area). Build large casio & entertainmant complex; Las Vegas II if you like. Split the sin tax between the 2 governments. There is a similar deal between Thailand & Malaysia, where they split the hydrocarbon finds between the 2 in the disputed sea. Toxin may want to invest with proceeds from the ManCity sales.

2. Mine (I mean land mine) every square inch of the disputed area, so that neither country can benefit. Princess Diana will be most sad if Thailand & Cambodia undo all her work clearing mine field.

[Tod]

Just got a call from a Khmer friend stuck at the border. Fighting has broken out and the border is now closed...including the Aranyaprathet/Poipet crossing. All the Cambodians in the border market have been forced back into Cambodia.

According to my friend there may be shooting not just in the Preah Vihear area but other botrder spots as well. Although that part was hard to get, very noisy in the background and she was trather panicked. On TV they said that the Thai govt has ordered all Thai citizens in Cambodia to evacuate and is sending in planes to get them out.

I'm really worried about my Cambodian niece who is studying at Mahidol, if this gets as nasty as it seems to be she may have to leave and lose the semester. And somehow I doubt I'll get a tuition refund......

Not to mention the soldiers' lives that will be lost and the economic costs to both countires.

Are you sure about that statement??? Is the border closed for foreigners as well?

I just sent 4 customers today who were going to Siem Reap and crossing from that border.

Any one who has informations about that, please post.

[plachon]

Here's how The Guardian is reporting it on their main news page, which is better reporting than their lop-sided coverage of the PAD occupation of Govt house and clashes with the police.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/1...ailand-cambodia

I foresee waning tourism industry heading even further south now, ontop of all the other economic factors. Inevitable, when it comes to sensitive people who've always figured Thailand to be that peaceful Asian country, where the folks just smile and wai, whilst pouring your cocktail in that luxury hotel near the ancient ruins. Molotov cocktails, tear gas cannisters and rocket-propelled grenades weren't a part of that idealised image methinks.

[gorshar]

I'm in Siem Reap, Cambodia - with my Thai family. About thirty minutes ago we were heading out to the local supermarket when several military trucks loaded with soldiers and artillery guns passed by in a hurry, obviously on their way to the border. A small number of people cheered them as they passed by, urging them to "kill Thais". Needless to say we turned around and went straight back to the house.

Until today this was the first time since this mess started that we heard any anti-Thai sentiment expressed around us. Perhaps the Thais have pushed this past the point of no return. Careful what you wish for and all that...

So in the name of nationalism you instigate and start a war with your neighbors. Is this payback for the January 2003 riots? Or were the riots payback for some earlier slight on the part of the Thais? So then what will the payback be for this?

When does this crap come to an end? Who in their right mind wants a war over a few kilometers of jungle that no one was paying any attention to until a few morons in Thailand decided they needed to wave a flag around for whatever political end they wished to achieve?

Anyway, if Thailand is indeed sending in the C-130s they better put one in Siem Reap. They started this mess and they can shoulder the bill to take my family back to Thailand if it comes to that.

Idiots. Every last one of them.

Just be sure to wrap that flag around yourselves real tight. And hope the flag is made of thick enough material to keep you warm and strong enough material to last. Because underneath you haven't a thing.

[h90]

I can see 2 senarios to this problem:

1. JDA (Joint Development Area). Build large casio & entertainmant complex; Las Vegas II if you like. Split the sin tax between the 2 governments. There is a similar deal between Thailand & Malaysia, where they split the hydrocarbon finds between the 2 in the disputed sea. Toxin may want to invest with proceeds from the ManCity sales.

2. Mine (I mean land mine) every square inch of the disputed area, so that neither country can benefit. Princess Diana will be most sad if Thailand & Cambodia undo all her work clearing mine field.

Add 1: It is that way planned with a slight modification on the split: Casinos&Entertainment for Hun Sen. The Hydrocarbons for Thaksin.

Before every election the population get handed out a small share 200-500 Baht of the money.

[Sunderland]

If war does start the entire international community will blame Thailand for not backing down on hunsen's threats.

For my personal view. Threatening war was uncalled for. Thai has every reason to not submit to Cambodia's threats of war.

Worst case scenario. The U.S. backs Thailand, Vietnam and China backs Cambodia. Another world war.

Bad for Cambodia, Thailand invades and annexes Cambodia all the way to the Mekong river.

Bad for Thailand, Cambodia annexes a couple of Thai provinces.

Atleast the last two would clear the border dispute.

So the US will invade Cambodia and drill for oil, while China bombs Thailand with its scary surplus of 'TNT' milk ...

[Plus]

Thailand did not start this mess.

Hun Sen came out with his ultimatum while Thai foreign minister was still on the plan back from the talks with his Cambodian counterpart.

Cambodia doesn't have any legal jurisdiction over the disputed area. Both countries soldiers are there, and have been there for months now.

Oh, and most Thais don't give a fuc_k about Cambodia, it's a long long way from "kill Cambodians" calls here. Most are caught by surpirse.

Edited October 15, 2008 by Plus

[gorshar]

Re: Aranyaprathet/Poipet border.

About ten minutes ago we called one of our contacts there. It's open.

[george]

Thailand, Cambodia On Brink Of War

BANGKOK: -- Thailand and Cambodia are on the brink of war after soldiers from both sides exchanged fires at the disputed area near the ancient Hindu temple, Preah Vihear Temple, in Si Sa Ket province.

At least two Cambodian and four Thai soldiers were injured in the incident that happened around 2.45pm.

The Thai Foreign Ministry, which gave a briefing to Bangkok-based Asean diplomats in the border dispute Wednesday morning, has summoned Cambodian Ambassador Uk Sophon.

The shootout happened a day after Thai Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat refused to withdraw Thai soldiers from the disputed border area despite the ultimatum from Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, who had threatened to go to war with its neighbour.

Thai army spokesman Sansern Kaeowkamnerd told a news conference that the Cambodian troops started firing first.

Earlier this month, soldiers from both countries exchanged fire at the disputed area, injuring several of them, while two Thai para-military rangers lost their legs after stepping on landmines there.

Preah Vihear temple, known as Phra Viharn in Thailand, was named a World Heritage Site at a Unesco meeting in Quebec, Canada, this year despite Thai opposition to the listing.

The ancient Hindu temple, perched on a 525-metre-high cliff on the Dangrek Mountain range that defines the Thai-Cambodian border, has been the source of a sovereignty dispute for decades.

Thai Army Chief Gen Anupong Paochinda has told his troops to be on high alert and to retaliate if provoked while the kingdom's jet fighters were put on high alert.

Thai Foreign Minister Sompong Amornvivat today asked Thai citizens in Cambodia to leave the country, adding that evacuation plans were in place.

The foreign ministers of both countries had met on several occasions to defuse tension over the border, but many analysts believed the entire conflict was due to domestic politics in both Cambodia and Thailand.

-- BERNAMA 2008-10-15

[Tod]

Re: Aranyaprathet/Poipet border.

About ten minutes ago we called one of our contacts there. It's open.

Yep, just called the driver of the minibus, border open

[medegen]

Thai troops wounded in clash with Cambodia - Army spokesman

By The Nation

One Cambodian soldier killed a clash : Thai Army spokesman

Four Thai troops were injured during a clash with Cambodian troops along Thai-Cambodia border on Wednesday, Army spokesman Sansern Kaeowkamnerd said.

One Khmer soldier was killed during the clashes.

The Thai troops were suffered from sharpnels of explosives and were rushed to a hospital in Si Sa Kaet province.

They were injured in one of two clashes with Cambodia at Pa Mo I Daeng in Si Sa Ket province. Another clash Phu Ma Khur caused no casualty.

They were first casualties of the Thai-Cambodia border conflicts which were flared up after Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen issued an ultimatum to open war if Thai troops were not withdrawn from the disputed area near the temple.

However his ultimatum was shot down as the Thai army vowed to remain troops.

Edited October 15, 2008 by medegen

[gorshar]

Thailand did not start this mess.

It started this mess when it protested Cambodia's application for World Heritage Status for the temple, which as the rightful owner of the *temple* they had every right to do so. Nobody was paying any attention to that so precious few km of jungle before than.

Cambodia doesn't have any legal jurisdiction over the disputed area.

And Thailand does?

Oh, and most Thais don't give a fuc_k about Cambodia

Yes, this has been clear for decades now... Like when the refugees started pouring over the border in 1979 and until the UN stepped in, Thailand was throwing them back to certain death. Maybe it's time for a little attitude adjustment?

[AlKing]

Going in a war to flight for 1.8 sq miles of worthless jungle? This will do down history book well. So what is PAD and DAAD going to do about it? I though they both love the country?

Edited October 15, 2008 by AlKing