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Where Is Gold Going In This Market


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i am skeptical of technical analysis. just focus on the long term picture, imo.

This is the only correct attitude for those of us who don't have the courage to play the roulette wheel. Of course you can make money as a trader, but most people wind up losing their shirts.

And, as I like to point out to this group every month or so as the subject of "why hold gold" comes up (for those lurkers who join this discussion late in the day), it is all because the global industrial economy is in terminal decline. This isn't a short term thing as it was in the eighties. An article just appeared today which highlights the problem very well. (http://www.321energy...nson112510.html). Look at that bright blue portion on the chart if you think the economy can ever recover. That is the one notated "the suspiciously flat part".

Anyone who thinks there won't be blood in the streets in the future is deluding themselves. And I mean that literally. There will be war and insurrections, and lots of them. Not only is economic growth over, we can't even hold what we have now.

The change coming in the future is so massive and so horrible that none of us can even contemplate the effects. All we know for sure is that it will not be a fun time to be alive. In an era like this, gold is about the only thing you can really count on. There will always be those who are wealthier than others, and the wealthy will always value gold.

Only the time frame for this is open to debate, and with the IEA now admitting Peak Oil is in the rear view mirror, the clock is ticking.

Buy gold.

step 1) Fundamentals analysis of stocks step 2) use technical analsysis to determine when the best time to buy/sell one of your fundamentally sound, pre- selected growth/value stocks.

Thats a very sound and proven (at least in my trading) way to use tech analysis

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PBOC Researcher Calls on U.S. to Sell Gold Reserves, People's Daily Says

http://www.blogcatalog.com/blog/eric-de-groots-insights

what is there to sell? there is no gold in Fort Knox. you don't believe me? ask Flying! :lol:

:lol: :lol:

Well if I had to make a wager on how much was there I would be hard pressed to decide.

I never said there is none but I have said multiple times I find it odd that they have not allowed a physical inventory of it in more than 50 years.

More intriguing is the excuse of it costs too much to do the inventory :huh: This from a country that has a printing press & is not afraid to use it for any & all other reasons.....Yeah umm hmmm

Edited by flying
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Interesting that blog mentions the story I mentioned here

China, Russia quit dollar

I agree that is got no mention here in the US...not surprising

of course it is not surprising because it is bull (i posted that already). how can a currency that is pegged to the USD being used instead of USD and then some clowns shout "they quit the dollar!"

I do not see that as a valid reason but perhaps I am not seeing it from your POV

Just because a currency is pegged to the USD does not automatically mean it is as hollow in worth/strength does it?

If all Fiat currency is IOU's then perhaps Russia & China have decided their paper is more reliable at this time & for future worth/redemption

Seeing the current state & policies of the USD is it surprising?

Edited by flying
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Anybody that cannot write a cogent paragraph without the words Fiat, printing-press, or Keynesian should basically be ignored -- those words are beginning to take on as much meaning as 'awesome' ... when I was a kid FIAT was an Italian car and stood for 'Fix It Again, Tony'

BTW My definition of a Non-Keynesian is someone who is opposed to the government assisting other people in times of distress; but when they are the ones under distress Hey! no problem.

Edited by jazzbo
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Just because a currency is pegged to the USD does not automatically mean it is as hollow in worth/strength does it?

as long as CNY is pegged, respectively quasi pegged to the USD it makes no sense to replace USD with the currency pair RUB/CNY. reason: peg = value. on the contrary! using USD as a trade currency gives the Chinese an obvious important advantage as they don't have to fear any fluctuation of exchange rates.

p.s. we don't have all the details except some journàsslists sensational message "Russia, China quit Dollar".

pps. i quit the Dollar months ago but started yesterday buying again. made already some small profit which should feed my dogs for a few days or perhaps even a wee bit longer :)

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Anybody that cannot write a cogent paragraph without the words Fiat, printing-press, or Keynesian...

there... there... Jazzbo. this is the GOOOLD thread where the use of fiat and printing press is kinda... sort of... mandatory.

:lol:

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"pps. i quit the Dollar months ago but started yesterday buying again. made already some small profit which should feed my dogs for a few days or perhaps even a wee bit longer "

USD is stronger against most currencies as the Euro and markets are being sold - Gold also has been pretty stable along with the $ / Also increasing in Euro and other currencies ?

People are buying Gold along with the USD as a flight to safety /

If that continues and there is a market crash one could see Gold/Silver miners shooting up - into dot com bubble territory and going against any market decline /

Edited by churchill
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USD is stronger against most currencies as the Euro and markets are being sold - Gold also has been pretty stable along with the $ / Also increasing in Euro and other currencies ?

if you look at the last five days the answer is "yes", if you look at the last two weeks the answer is "no".

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European debt problems two-edged sword for gold

Current economic problems in Europe are both positive for gold, in that possibility of a Eurozone break-up gains credence, but this also means a seemingly stronger dollar which can be a negative

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=115816&sn=Detail&pid=33

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there... there... Jazzbo. this is the GOOOLD thread where the use of fiat and printing press is kinda... sort of... mandatory.

... OK.. and I guess the new obligatory word is 'sheeple' ... which would include everyone who doesn't have most all their assets in gold... or as I was forewarned: Prepare to lose money.

IMHO If there were any big players out there who saw Winston Leonard's 'market crash' as imminent, they would be buying gold so fast right now so that all the small players would be crowded out of the market.

Edited by jazzbo
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Black Friday with pictures of Americans filling up Trolley's with crap produced in China - Germans are filling up safe deposit boxes with gold and silver /

The USD may be in a short term rally but it cannot go on /

'"Germany cannot keep paying for bail-outs without going bankrupt itself," said Professor Wilhelm Hankel, of Frankfurt University. "This is frightening people. You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings."

The refrain was picked up this week by German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble. "We're not swimming in money, we're drowning in debts," he told the Bundestag. '

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/8160999/EU-rescue-costs-start-to-threaten-Germany-itself.html

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Black Friday with pictures of Americans filling up Trolley's with crap produced in China - Germans are filling up safe deposit boxes with gold and silver /

The USD may be in a short term rally but it cannot go on /

Those Germans are smart. Except for the part about the bank deposit boxes.

Why can't the USD continue to rally? It's really all about the banks in the end and the US banks are in the worst shape except for all the others. The USD will be the last to go IMO.

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Black Friday with pictures of Americans filling up Trolley's with crap produced in China - Germans are filling up safe deposit boxes with gold and silver /

The USD may be in a short term rally but it cannot go on /

Those Germans are smart. Except for the part about the bank deposit boxes.

Why can't the USD continue to rally? It's really all about the banks in the end and the US banks are in the worst shape except for all the others. The USD will be the last to go IMO.

Yes the last to go but sooner than many expect - I think the USD will strengthen short term - but Merkel & Co are going to be forced to put in place a solution much faster than they want to by the markets - and then the markets will look to the USD /

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'"Germany cannot keep paying for bail-outs without going bankrupt itself," said Professor Wilhelm Hankel, of Frankfurt University. "This is frightening people. You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings."

for the record:

-you couldn't find a bank safety deposit box in Germany since many years. waiting period for old/good clients was 5-8 years to get one.

-Hankel was made an honorary professor of Frankfurt University just before he was about to bankrupt Hessische Landesbank (owned by the german state Hesse) in 1973 where he was the CEO.

Edited by Naam
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There has been speculation on ZH as to the meaning of the drop in GVZ index - see http://www.zerohedge.com/article/surge-after-hours-selling-takes-gold-volatility-index-all-time-low

as I understand it - the index is an indication of insurance against price moves - So the higher the index means more volatility and perhaps lower prices and the lower the index less volatility and/or higher prices ?

and from this site

'Friday's action in the metals was quite predictable and a look "behind the headlines" reveals some interesting information. I had mentioned to several colleagues after this week's option expiry, in which the cartel failed to slam the metals below key call option strike prices, that if a lot of the in-the-money call holders exercised and took delivery of their contracts the metals might get slammed during Wed/Fri low volumn trading. I guess it was another lucky guess on my part per yesterday's ambush.

As it turns out, Monday is "first notice" day for December gold/silver. What this means is that anyone with a long position has to either sell their position by yesterday's access close OR have an account that can 1) to accept delivery (most online trading futures accounts to not allow this) and 2) if the account can take delivery, it has to be fully funded to accept a delivery notice as of Friday evening. What typically happens leading into the day before first notice is that the cartel will make an aggressive attempt to force the market lower knowing that many smaller traders will be natural sellers going into the day before first notice.'

continued ..

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2010/11/silver-and-gold-may-be-set-up-to-launch.html

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Just because a currency is pegged to the USD does not automatically mean it is as hollow in worth/strength does it?

as long as CNY is pegged, respectively quasi pegged to the USD it makes no sense to replace USD with the currency pair RUB/CNY. reason: peg = value. on the contrary! using USD as a trade currency gives the Chinese an obvious important advantage as they don't have to fear any fluctuation of exchange rates.

p.s. we don't have all the details except some journàsslists sensational message "Russia, China quit Dollar".

pps. i quit the Dollar months ago but started yesterday buying again. made already some small profit which should feed my dogs for a few days or perhaps even a wee bit longer :)

Don't you think that these currency announcements are very important / I see that Putin / Merkel seem to be getting closer ! and China / Turkey trading Yuan seems on the cards / slow but sure .....

China / Russia seem to have made it clear that they don't believe in the USD as a reserve currency and seem to be doing their best to undermine it /

and so it goes on ..

Canadian Dollar to be part of Russia's foreign exchange reserve

'

Alexei Ulyukayev, the Deputy Chairman of the Russian Central Bank said on Wednesday that Canadian dollars have been added to the international currency reserve of the country.

“We have recently begun investing in assets denominated in the Canadian dollar”, Ulyukayev said in an interview on Wednesday. “So far, the amounts are very small, but there’s perhaps potential for increasing our holdings”, he added.

In an attempt to undermine the US dollar’s dominance and mitigate risk of a weak dollar, Russia is trying to promote regional currencies. The Central Bank has already announced that it will increase its gold reserve and add Australian Dollar in the currency basket to reduce dependence on the greenback.

Russia has a total foreign exchange reserve of $495.7 billion, as of November 12, 2010. The US dollar comprises of 47 percent, followed by Euro-41%, British Pound-10%, Japanese Yen-2% and a small amount of Swiss Francs.'

http://www.bsr-russia.com/en/banking-a-finance/item/1274-canadian-dollar-to-be-part-of-russias-foreign-exchange-reserve.html

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U.S. Reality Check: China, Russia Drop the Dollar

'Consider the fact that China not only has this trade-settlement arrangement with Russia, but also has a growing list of settlement partners that so far includes Argentina, Brazil, Belarus, Iceland, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam. And then, if each of these countries develops bilateral trade-settlement partnerships in their own currencies absent the dollar, how would this affect our currency, Fed policy and the U.S. economy?'

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/tony-richardson/us-reality-check-china-russia-drop-us-dollar

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Where is gold going? ... This according to blurb for a subscription newsletter at Forbes.com --

Make the most out of gold’s phenomenal move higher but don’t get

left holding the bag when it’s time to run.

Click here for instant

access to market timing analysis and specific gold, silver and hard

asset model portfolios in Curtis Hesler’s Professional Timing Service.

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With gold trading near $1,370 and silver breaking back above $27, King World News interviewed Sean Boyd, Chairman and CEO of Agnico Eagle to get his thoughts on where gold and silver are headed. When asked about gold specifically Sean stated, “I think having that perspective of being around the industry for a long time, if you go back ten years ago and someone had said gold was going to $2,000 then you would have thought well, if that’s the case then the world is going to be in a total mess. Well, we can see gold at $2,000 without the world being in a total mess. So I think this argument that we have to have disaster before gold is going to go up is wrong.”

Regarding silver Sean stated, “Silver on a percentage basis is going to do better than gold over the next year or two. Gold will attract money into the precious metals space and silver will be a big beneficiary of that. And if gold is at $2,000, then silver could be $60 to $75.”

I have move all my funds into physical precious metals last summer. So far I am up about 90%.

How is all that typing and postulating working out for you??? :rolleyes:

Anybody can clearly see, the European and USA Governments are running on credit cards that are way overdrawn, and no way to pay off the interest and certainly never the principal. But if clutching those bundles of paper make you feel secure, I wish you well. For me, those heavy bars and coin holders feel a lot more real.

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But if clutching those bundles of paper make you feel secure, I wish you well. For me, those heavy bars and coin holders feel a lot more real.

if you are able to clutch all your heavy bars and coin holders i not only wish you well but i wish that you make many more of those heavy bars that you are not able to clutch them anymore.

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here's the beef:

We have been proposing the monetization of a silver coin in Mexico since 2001. According to our proposal a one-ounce coin of pure silver, with no engraved value, would be given a monetary value by the Mexican Central Bank. This coin would exist and circulate as money, in parallel with the paper money system of Mexico.

The monetary value would be superior to the bullion value of the silver ounce by about 15%. This margin would allow a profit, called “seigniorage”, for the Central Bank. Since the coin would not have an engraved value, rises in the price of silver (which would tend to eliminate the seigniorage of the Central Bank) would be met with new, higher, Central Bank quotes for the monetary value of the coin.

The rises in the value of silver in the silver markets of the world would no longer cause the disappearance of the monetized silver ounce. As soon as a rise in the price of silver would begin to affect the seigniorage of the Central Bank, it would produce a new and higher quote.

In order for the silver coin to become money and cease to be a commodity, the last quote of the Central Bank would have to remain stable and not diminish if and when the price of silver were to fall, which of course it does from time to time. Granted such immunity from falls in the price of silver, the coin would become legal tender money and could be used for any commercial transaction.

Now we read that China is having problems with inflation of its money supply. We think that if China were to monetize a silver coin, its Central Bank would have an effective instrument to assist in dealing with inflation.

China used silver exclusively as money for many centuries and restoring it to circulation in China would seem appropriate for China, as it aspires to recover its former glory as the richest country in the world.

The hypothetical case of a monetized silver coin in China.

The first thing that strikes us as we consider a silver coin to be used as money in China is that given its enormous population a one-ounce coin would appear to be much too large.

Let us consider a smaller coin. In the case of silver coins with engraved values we have seen the case of Mexico, whose Central Bank attempted to retain a silver peso (with an engraved value) in circulation all the way up to 1967. The attempt required removing all previously minted and engraved silver coins from circulation and replacing them with new One Peso coins containing less silver.

What we are suggesting is radically different. Instead of replacing a One Peso coin with coins with progressively less silver content, we are simply, in the special case of China, “cutting up” a one ounce pure silver coin into smaller pieces.

For the purpose of silver in circulation in China, we suggest a small coin, about the size of an American dime, with a pure silver content of 1/10 oz., alloyed with 10% copper to give a fineness of .900. In metric terms, the coin would have a gross weight of 3.45 grams and a pure silver content of 3.11 grams.

The determination of the monetary value of the 1/10 oz coin in Yuan

Today, November 24, 2010, the exchange rate for the Chinese Yuan is 6.6489 Yuan per dollar, and silver is traded at $27.59 oz.

At these values, the value of silver bullion per ounce, in Yuan, is 6.6489 x $27.59 = 183.44 Yuan per ounce.

The value of silver in a 1/10 coin would be 183.44 / 10 = 18.34 Yuan.

Add to 18.34 Yuan, the cost of minting, which we shall estimate at 10 cents per coin = .67 Yuan for minting costs. Then 18.34 + .67 = 19.01 Yuan.

19.01 Yuan x 1.1 to provide a seigniorage profit to the Chinese Central Bank = 20.91 Yuan.

We round up the Yuan figure of 20.91, to 25 Yuan as the initial official quoted legal tender value of the small 1/10 oz coin, using multiples of 5 for steps in future increases of legal tender monetary value as the price of silver continues to rise. This facilitates public use of the coin.

The Chinese population will snap up these coins in enormous quantities. As they do so, they will initially be handing over 25 Yuan for each coin purchased.

One tonne of silver will serve to manufacture 321,510 coins. One thousand tonnes of silver will allow for the manufacture of 321,510,000 coins. For the population of China, this will be merely the first appetizer. The population of China will gobble up many thousands of tonnes of silver for its savings.

Each 1,000 tonnes of silver that is monetized, at 25 Yuan per coin, will initially withdraw 8.04 billion Yuan from circulation.

The silver coins that go into circulation will be money, but will hardly be used for purchases. It will be difficult to find these coins, as they will all be treasured up by the Chinese population. Their velocity of circulation will be close to zero and thus they will have no inflationary effect upon the economy. Paper Yuan are withdrawn and replaced with silver money which goes into savings; this is a correct way to fight inflation.

Saving these coins will amount to voluntary austerity for the Chinese. Saving is the postponement of consumption. Voluntary austerity is always more effective and sounder from an economic point of view than the forced savings beloved of Statists, who have dictated taxes and scarcity for consumer goods so that the Statists can build factories.

The monetization of a silver coin will be a free-market decision that prompts people to save, spontaneously, of their own accord, and which does not require raising interest rates to draw the people’s money out of the economy into savings.

When the Chinese begin to withdraw silver from the world markets, in order to supply the vast appetite for silver savings of the Chinese, the price of silver will climb to unsuspected heights. We can easily visualize a price four times higher than the present high price: $100 Dollars an ounce.

At 100 Yuan per 1/10 oz. – the initial price calculated above, times four – the Chinese Central Bank would be withdrawing about 32 billion Yuan from circulation with each 1,000 tonnes of monetized silver coin placed in the hands of the Chinese people.

Silver is sold on the world markets, for dollars. At $100 dollars/oz., the Central Bank would be able to transform part of its vast dollar and euro reserves into silver at $3,125,100 dollars per tonne. One thousand tonnes would require $3.1 billion dollars. A drop in the bucket as far as Chinese C.B. reserves are concerned, but every little bit helps, considering that Chinese reserves are not actually worth a Chinese firecracker and that sooner or later, China will have to take a gigantic bath when this fact is recognized.

What about the impact of $100 silver on the price of gold?

We think that the ratios of the past and of the present will disappear. Gold will not necessarily rise four times in price, to retain the same ratio with silver, at its new price of $100 dollars / oz. The silver ratio to gold has been as high as 100 to 1, and lately has been around 50 to 1. The silver ratio to gold can continue to fall towards the old ratio of 16 to 1. If China persists in purchasing world silver, the price of silver might far exceed $100 dollars per ounce and become increasingly effective in stemming inflation as higher prices for the silver coin draw off greater amounts of paper money from the economy.

Quite apart from the effect of sopping up quantities of Yuan at present in circulation in China, monetizing the silver coin for the use of Chinese in their savings would have a salutary effect upon society in China.

Silver as money gets masses of people to think, not of the present, but of the future, and to focus on their long-term objectives as they accumulate savings in real money. It has a binding effect upon society.

Tranquility, or peace of mind, is one of the great Confucian philosophical values of the Chinese and solid savings in real money are a great tranquilizer. It seems to us, that more tranquility in a frenzied Chinese society would be of benefit to China.

The world is seeking a new paradigm in money. The Keynesians and inflationists and Statists have had their day, and they have fudged it. The world’s monetary system is in the initial stage of breakdown. Confidence in fiat money is evaporating. The trend is in place and there is nothing to stop it. The time for real money has arrived, and China can lead the way by monetizing silver into small coins which can be used as money.

Perhaps silver will open the way to a further, more far-reaching reform for gold in the International Monetary Process; for what the world has at present is not a System, but only a Process – of meltdown.

###

Hugo Salinas Price

aka Wouldy Wouldpecker

President

Asociación Cívica Mexicana Pro Plata, A.C.

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There has been speculation on ZH as to the meaning of the drop in GVZ index - see http://www.zerohedge.com/article/surge-after-hours-selling-takes-gold-volatility-index-all-time-low

as I understand it - the index is an indication of insurance against price moves - So the higher the index means more volatility and perhaps lower prices and the lower the index less volatility and/or higher prices ?

and from this site

'Friday's action in the metals was quite predictable and a look "behind the headlines" reveals some interesting information. I had mentioned to several colleagues after this week's option expiry, in which the cartel failed to slam the metals below key call option strike prices, that if a lot of the in-the-money call holders exercised and took delivery of their contracts the metals might get slammed during Wed/Fri low volumn trading. I guess it was another lucky guess on my part per yesterday's ambush.

As it turns out, Monday is "first notice" day for December gold/silver. What this means is that anyone with a long position has to either sell their position by yesterday's access close OR have an account that can 1) to accept delivery (most online trading futures accounts to not allow this) and 2) if the account can take delivery, it has to be fully funded to accept a delivery notice as of Friday evening. What typically happens leading into the day before first notice is that the cartel will make an aggressive attempt to force the market lower knowing that many smaller traders will be natural sellers going into the day before first notice.'

continued ..

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2010/11/silver-and-gold-may-be-set-up-to-launch.html

This has been updated see http://truthingold.blogspot.com/2010/11/comex-may-have-problem.html

'Monday, November 29, 2010

The Comex May Have A Problem...

Note: a commentor pointed out that tomorrow is first notice. I made an error in reading the product calendar on the CME website, which can be found HERE. My bad. The analysis below is still relevant, as I bet there was not a lot of liquidation today. We'll find out for sure tomorrow. Thanks to the reader who pointed out my mistake.

I have to allow for the typical accounting revisions that the Comex sometimes makes a day later. BUT, right now based on the o/i for gold and silver, the Comex is potentially insolvent.

Friday being the day before first notice, anyone with an account not funded to take delivery of a long position has to either sell or be liquidated by the end of last Friday's access session. I know this because I had a silver position liquidated a few years ago when I forgot what day it was lol. Any open long positions as of this morning are capable of taking delivery of gold and silver.

With that said, the open gold o/i as of this morning is 59,412 contracts. This translates into 5.9 million ounces. The Comex gold inventory shows only 2.6 million ounces of gold registered and approved for delivery. There is a total of 11.4mm ounces.

In silver, there are 17,208 open contracts. This translates into 86 million ounces. The Comex reports 48.5 million ounces available and approved for delivery, 107.2 million total ounces.

What does this mean, in the context of the cartel being unable to force liqidate a majority of the open gold/silver positions? Everyone reading this can use their imagination and I'm not willing to predict how this will unfold, but right now the Comex has a problem. '

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To put things into perspective, deliveries YTD ( from Kitco )

For SILVER:

December, 2009: 13.7Moz

January, 2010: 1.4Moz

February, 2010: 4.6Moz

March, 2010: 20.5Moz

April, 2010: 2.4Moz

May, 2010: 21.1Moz

June, 2010: .2Moz

July, 2010: 12.0Moz

August, 2010: .1Moz

September, 2010: 12.5Moz

October, 2010: 1.4Moz

November, 2010: 4.5Moz

December, 2010: estimated ~86Moz, 2676 tonnes

For GOLD:

Dec 09: 0.9996M Oz

Jan 10: 0.2893M Oz

Feb 10: 0.5946M Oz

Mar 10: 0.0735M Oz

Apr 10: 1.344M Oz

May 10: 0.2049M Oz

Jun 10: 2.0831M Oz

Jul 10: 0.0895M Oz

Aug 10: 0.7212M Oz

Sep 10: 0.0709M Oz

Oct 10: 0.665M Oz

Nov 10: 0.1167M Oz

Dec 10: estimated 5.94MOz ~184.8 tonnes

Where will the bankers find 184.8 tonnes of GOLD?

Issue Paper ????

Edited by churchill
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China approves gold fund of funds

' China’s securities regulators have given the go ahead for a mutual fund to invest in foreign exchange-traded gold funds, potentially tapping interest among mainland China investors who face negative real interest rates on their bank deposits and want to hedge against inflation.'

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-approves-gold-fund-of-funds-2010-11-30

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