crusader79 Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 (edited) quote: "That may explain why you failed to anticipate this secular bull market in gold..." For the record, " even experienced and most successful investors" fail to anticipate bear markets also... That's for sure, I certainly have. But actually before Naam's self-serving edit, the full sentence was "That may explain why you failed to anticipate this secular bull market in gold and were so late to participate in it." Edited February 16, 2011 by crusader79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 16, 2011 Share Posted February 16, 2011 quote: "That may explain why you failed to anticipate this secular bull market in gold..." For the record, " even experienced and most successful investors" fail to anticipate bear markets also... That's for sure, I certainly have. But actually before Naam's self-serving edit, the full sentence was "That may explain why you failed to anticipate this secular bull market in gold and were so late to participate in it." el cheapo yada, yada, yakety yak... diversion... yawn.... what "self serving"? i did not participate buying gold. i made nice profits since may last year trading a couple of mine shares, which react on gold price movements as if leveraged, in-out-in-out-in-out . all documented in this thread (even links submitted), details and views privately exchanged with two participating TV-members who post here very often, are serious and convinced gold investors (but neither dreamers nor residing -as opposed to many others- on cloud nine) who can confirm my claim. case closed! i suggest... back to reading essays "how to trade potatoes against real estate in a suburb of Ushuaia". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crusader79 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 (edited) el cheapo yada, yada, yakety yak... diversion... yawn.... what "self serving"? i did not participate buying gold. i made nice profits since may last year trading a couple of mine shares, which react on gold price movements as if leveraged, in-out-in-out-in-out . all documented in this thread (even links submitted), details and views privately exchanged with two participating TV-members who post here very often, are serious and convinced gold investors (but neither dreamers nor residing -as opposed to many others- on cloud nine) who can confirm my claim. case closed! i suggest... back to reading essays "how to trade potatoes against real estate in a suburb of Ushuaia". Don't worry, we all remember your trades, you bragged about them enough. I remember thinking: if even this loudmouth is finally capitulating and entering the market, it's time to start thinking about an exit. I suggest....a subscription to Marc Faber's monthly newsletter. Next time you might be earlier to the market. Edited February 17, 2011 by crusader79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 loudmouth... subscription to Marc Faber... Next time you might be earlier to the market. some people just don't have the guts to admit that they were wrong or that they presented bullshit. instead they resort to irrelevant remarks, personal attacks and insults. as i mentioned already... cheap without tangible content! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crusader79 Posted February 17, 2011 Share Posted February 17, 2011 (edited) loudmouth... subscription to Marc Faber... Next time you might be earlier to the market. some people just don't have the guts to admit that they were wrong or that they presented bullshit. instead they resort to irrelevant remarks, personal attacks and insults. as i mentioned already... cheap without tangible content! That's an excellent self-portrait. This 'poor boy' is impressed Edited February 17, 2011 by crusader79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Flying! AU/AG ratio 43.69 ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Flying! AU/AG ratio 43.69 ! I know ! I saw that too. But I think I will sit tight awhile As I told you I did swap out 15% of my physical silver for gold at 47/1 If I were sure I was exiting the US this year I would swap out the rest now too. But since I am occupied here for at least 2011 I will take a wait & see approach for now as Silver continues to lead gold higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 i am still waiting to get in again even though 1818.hk has nicely recovered. my entry point 1,420 still stands @ AU/USD. wish i could find a silver mine (tradeable in Asia) which fluctuates that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 i am still waiting to get in again even though 1818.hk has nicely recovered. my entry point 1,420 still stands @ AU/USD. wish i could find a silver mine (tradeable in Asia) which fluctuates that much. Yes that 1818 was a real gem for you & I am envious of how well you did on it. I will keep my ears open for a silver mine for you. Chok Dee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I will keep my ears open for a silver mine for you i'd rather prefer to have you here (you know which country i mean), i could use the help of a professional. the natives on the construction site are driving me nucking futs. another 24 hours and i'm flying back to Thailand to regenerate for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 I will keep my ears open for a silver mine for you i'd rather prefer to have you here (you know which country i mean), i could use the help of a professional. the natives on the construction site are driving me nucking futs. another 24 hours and i'm flying back to Thailand to regenerate for a week. hahah thanks for the compliment but I think I would melt faster than frosty the snowman in the country of your task Well rest up at home floating in the pool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted February 18, 2011 Share Posted February 18, 2011 Silver is really chugging along this week in USD close to 9% rise? Silver gold ratio now at 42.53/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Silver is really chugging along this week in USD close to 9% rise? Silver gold ratio now at 42.53/1 in other currencies too as USD is rather stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexLah Posted February 19, 2011 Share Posted February 19, 2011 Buy at 1343, sell at 1384, 10K leveraged 100 times. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Thank you! you are welcome Alex! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Looks like with the open of Asisa/Euro markets today Silver has crossed over $33+/oz USD mark Gold @ $1395+/oz USD Ratio now down to 42.2/1 I will admit it is a bit confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 to me it's not confusing Flying. since quite some time a clear trend exists. silver gains progressively when gold rises and loses progressively when gold falls. got any updated long term chart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 (edited) to me it's not confusing Flying. since quite some time a clear trend exists. silver gains progressively when gold rises and loses progressively when gold falls. got any updated long term chart? Well for me a bit confusing but I should know better than to have expectations.... I thought 47/1 was a turn & gold would resume the leader position. Now I am wondering where this silver train is heading? Ultimately I plan to swap more silver out for gold if for nothing else but ease of physical size. Probably still will....at some point. It is not painful when your swapping ... Last swap was like buying gold for $560 an ounce...Next swap looks to be under $500/oz Just trading profit source.....When I loaded up it was 77/1 Yet it is hard to argue with the results so far. If one entered the AU/AG PM's when I did they are looking at 170% increase in Silver & a little less than 70% in gold... Saying that alone makes me wonder why I even said gold resume the leader position Anyone else wondering where silver is headed & why? Aside from the smaller thus more volatile sector As for long term charts.....Just the usual...I am not much for charts but do smile at that low spot of the V in 08 Edited February 21, 2011 by flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I am not much for charts... look closely at the charts Flying. they confirm what i stated. and if the trend keeps on, it would be unwise for an investor -who believes that gold will go up- to get rid of his silver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I am not much for charts... look closely at the charts Flying. they confirm what i stated. and if the trend keeps on, it would be unwise for an investor -who believes that gold will go up- to get rid of his silver. Well.....I am not one to buck a trend & like I said my numbers tell me the tale. I am not in a rush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
churchill Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hi Flying - check out this article Watch the Gold to Silver Ratio http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2011/2/Pages/Watch-the-Gold-to-Silver-Ratio.aspx and Trader Dan has set up a very informative site at http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011_02_20_archive.html Check back on his comments during this past week / Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Hi Flying - check out this article Watch the Gold to Silver Ratio http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2011/2/Pages/Watch-the-Gold-to-Silver-Ratio.aspx and Trader Dan has set up a very informative site at http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011_02_20_archive.html Check back on his comments during this past week / Thanks Churchill will take a look. I was surprised when it breached its low this past week. Who knows....On the one hand I would not complain to see it at 16/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudhopper Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 ...I am not much for charts I'm not much for charts either Flying but I think I can recognize exponential behavior when I see it... If both gold and silver rise exponentially I don't think they would maintain a ratio especially as things went more vertical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
churchill Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 (edited) Silver looking Bullish ! Near Zero Contango in COMEX Silver Futures some experienced investors do not interprete zero contango as bullish. au contraire! but then... to each his own and Still looking bullish - and Gold now over $1400 -so as an experienced investor tempted yet ? / Edited February 21, 2011 by churchill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HelloAgainItsME Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Buy at 1343, sell at 1384, 10K leveraged 100 times. Thank you! I am still reading all the posts and trying to understand what is being discussed. My knowledge is improving but still small. Is this the kind of leverage that Warren Buffett said 'If you don't have leverage you don't get into trouble. It's the only way a smart person can go broke. I always say: If you're smart you don't need it, and if you're dumb you shouldn't be using it.' If you leverage 100 times, can you lose 100 times your stake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 (edited) ...I am not much for charts I'm not much for charts either Flying but I think I can recognize exponential behavior when I see it... If both gold and silver rise exponentially I don't think they would maintain a ratio especially as things went more vertical. Yes agreed..... I actually do like to hear what cycle types are saying & have mentioned that here before. One that I keep up with had the 3rd week of Feb as a turn & I see he seems to have it again. As a side note he also claims Nov as the month for gold to go parabolic. Will be interesting to watch & see if he is correct again. I should add... I have never acted on any of the information but watch it out of curiosity. Much like a horoscope As for Silver...........Yes I also agree that the ratio could continue to drop. I will continue to swap out more as time goes by for my reasons of ease but......... At what ratios I am not as sure as I once was. The link Churchill provided brought something to my attention I had not noticed that this was only the 2nd time in quite awhile that these levels were breached. While I had in the back of my mind the possibility of the ration going quite low I did not know the significance of its present location so will be watching with interest. It sits at 41.43/1 as I write Edited February 21, 2011 by flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Buy at 1343, sell at 1384, 10K leveraged 100 times. Thank you! I am still reading all the posts and trying to understand what is being discussed. My knowledge is improving but still small. Is this the kind of leverage that Warren Buffett said 'If you don't have leverage you don't get into trouble. It's the only way a smart person can go broke. I always say: If you're smart you don't need it, and if you're dumb you shouldn't be using it.' If you leverage 100 times, can you lose 100 times your stake? no, you can only lose your initial investment. but rule of the thumb is "the higher the leverage the sooner you can be wiped out". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Silver looking Bullish ! Near Zero Contango in COMEX Silver Futures some experienced investors do not interprete zero contango as bullish. au contraire! but then... to each his own and Still looking bullish - and Gold now over $1400 -so as an experienced investor tempted yet ? / my targets to buy two specific gold mines again (spot gold $ 1,420 / € 1,050) as well as mine share prices have not yet been reached. besides... i am very busy with some derivative bond trades which demand my full attention. the only thing i regret is that i have not found silver mines to my liking (a tedious and time consuming search/evaluation) which i can trade during asian trading hours. then there is also Mrs Naam who again started strutting around the house "avec un sourire suffisant" on her face after looking at a spreadsheet how her physical gold holdings are doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badge Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Buy at 1343, sell at 1384, 10K leveraged 100 times. Thank you! I am still reading all the posts and trying to understand what is being discussed. My knowledge is improving but still small. Is this the kind of leverage that Warren Buffett said 'If you don't have leverage you don't get into trouble. It's the only way a smart person can go broke. I always say: If you're smart you don't need it, and if you're dumb you shouldn't be using it.' If you leverage 100 times, can you lose 100 times your stake? no, you can only lose your initial investment. but rule of the thumb is "the higher the leverage the sooner you can be wiped out". Well you can certainly lose more than your original 'margin', its down to your broker/software. If your leveraged 100 times though, a 1% move against you would lose you your original margin/investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badge Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 So with Gold at new highs Ive ran my ruler over it, and depending on what data I put into my model I get varying Long Term targets, the most poignant of which lie at 1355/65/90, so really anywhere between 1350-1400(!), and then 1575-1600. All rather vague then! Theres some less potentially significant targets along the way at 1365, 1460 and 1515 too. $27.50 is the next hurdle still[spot AG], but the model shows around $32.35 as the next sell signal - not far off a 61.8% retrace of the all time high - with $34.50 and $37.25 likely the following inflexion points. As before, liklihood of these longer term prices being reached etc etc unknown The 61.8% retrace did nothing for silver, so presumably 34.5 is at least likely eventually. All bubbles go vertical before they pop, Commods especially. If you look at some multi-year graphs of PM's they certainly look vertical, but the last laugh is the hardest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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