Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[flying]

PS: I do have one regret & that is I wish I had stuck to my original plan in regards to swapping some silver for gold.

My original plan was to swap out 15% at 47/1 ( which I did )

then again to do a larger swap at 37/1 ( which I didn't)

Seeing the ratio at 30-35/1 I hesitated & did not make the swap.

Of course hindsight is 20/20

As I have mentioned in the past my swaps are based mainly in reduction of physical size but

not to argue with the ratio it would have been a good time to do so.

We will see & perhaps I still will at the current ratio after seeing what is available locally

Edited May 6, 2011 by flying

[Naam]

BTW, you send lanna info? Can I get some? I feel left out.

need your e-mail to put you on the distribution list. but keep in mind that it's megabytes of research from a dozen different sources covering all kinds of assets which we distribute since more than a decade. should your mailbox be full and mail bounces back three times you will be kicked off automatically.

[Naam]

Naam, you mentioned Lehman and leverage..... I wasn't even leveraged during the Lehman debacle, but I was hit so hard it was as if the Brothers Lehman themselves rose from the grave just to kick me in the balls.

tell me something about Lehman which i have not experienced i was lucky sitting on a pile of cash (which i thought was safe) and couldn't get rid of my other holdings because there were virtually zero bids. a couple of weeks later i had to worry about my cash and scrambled to buy Bunds and UST which i kept till the state guarantees kicked in.

however, the Lehman Brothers 2008 provided opportunities in most of 2009 of which we can only have wet dreams nowadays. nearly anything 'financial' you touched in march doubled in april, tripled in may and quadrupled in june.

therefore ah sez... bring it on again and test my big mouth

[Naam]

conclusion: assuming claim is correct then price increase was nothing than a bubble caused by speculators who lack sound financial resources.

Yes I thought we all knew that this moonshot was unstable?

let me tell you a secret but... shhhhhh... don't tell anybody! i thought the AG 'moonshot' might go on for a while and blamed myself because i was not participating.

[flying]

let me tell you a secret but... shhhhhh... don't tell anybody! i thought the AG 'moonshot' might go on for a while and blamed myself because i was not participating.

Well dont feel bad as the AU will continue & Mrs. Naam has you covered

[Naam]

let me tell you a secret but... shhhhhh... don't tell anybody! i thought the AG 'moonshot' might go on for a while and blamed myself because i was not participating.

Well dont feel bad as the AU will continue & Mrs. Naam has you covered

will that compensate the other huge problems i am facing such as

Aeon Atms Are Charging 150 Baht ! This morning in Buriram

Edited May 6, 2011 by Naam

[churchill]

a year ago - http://www.archive.org/details/MarketCrash-06May2010-SpPit

Is the USD going to 'rip' higher in the next 6 months or so ! I think if it does rip it will be because of Euro Problems - not always bad for gold / Last time Euro was down , $ up and I believe gold was also up /

Greece about to leave the Euro ? I don't think so - They will muddle through

But the coming end of QE could put a bid under the $ and hit PM's - but markets are not always logical

US Dollar Bear Rally ?? coming

http://www.zealllc.com/2011/usdxbral2.htm

[badge]

When I say ''near future'' I mean sometime between now and the end of the summer. There are so many factors I would not be comfortable making any long-term calls.

You and I are very different. I guess that is why you trade, and I don't. I would never feel comfortable making any kind of a short term prediction. There are so many factors I would not be comfortable. Long term however, on the order of several decades, the picture is abundantly clear. Energy is depleting, and there is nothing to replace it. Even if we could substitute for oil, it would take a century or more to build the infrastructure. It took about 130 years to get where we are now, and that was with an incredibly dense and relatively benign liquid fuel. Whatever else we could use, it will necessarily be less desirable and more difficult to exploit.

Therefore, it is quite easy to say that in 30 - 50 years, the global economy will have declined by somewhere around half. Could be slightly more if the expected resource wars develop, could be slightly less if we somehow avoid that mess. That means there is no hope for any fiat currency that relies on growth and is based on debt. Which is to say, all of them. They will all have to massively inflate, or collapse. Gold is therefore currently the only safe, long term play, unless you are good at picking stocks that are well suited for depressionary economies.

No, the problem is strictly the short term. It is that place where there are truly so many factors that it is difficult to know what will happen. I can make a good guess at the general features we will see on the way down, but I couldn't begin to tell you the timing.

Naturally its easier to espouse predictions for 30yrs-50yrs, and accept that in the meantime you could witness another 75% draw-down, as people with the same argument put forward in the 1970's. The best bit is its completely void of any value as an opinion in the first place, as you dont have to admit error/take praise for 30-50yrs

You have also included some bold assumptions in your story-book half-century outline for Gold and fiat; like 'they' will have to massively inflate, but one needs to pick stocks for a depressionary environment?

I believe jcon is simply trying to be a bit more pragmatic, by focusing on the shorter term. A sentiment I share.

[flying]

It is true that adjustments at times need to be made but....adjustments for a longer term outlook are changes based on a change to your premise or the fundamentals that brought you into the long trade in the first place.

I am not saying a long trade is xxx years ..I am saying it is valid until the fundamentals that brought you into it changes.

Price changes large or small are not reason to change a long position. Changes in the fundamentals are.

the above IMO of course

folks who want to day trade based on price are welcome to it.

At the same time I see many as I read today ( not on this site ) that assume some sort of undeserved pride in finally not being as wrong as they have been for a long time

Edited May 7, 2011 by flying

[churchill]

What’s Next for the S&P 500, Gold, & Oil

http://swingtradingdaily.com/2011/05/06/what’s-next-for-the-sp-500-gold-oil/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+SwingTradingDaily+%28Swing+Trading+Daily%29

[churchill]

Another Bullish Argument for Metals?

'Taking a step back, the monetary policy arguments for gold and against the USD remain the following:

i) FOMCs consistently dovish remarks regarding muted inflation;

ii) Fed's downgrading of growth and;

iii) Fed's planning to reinvest mortgage securities payments, which is a form of passive easing as the balance sheet is prevented from shrinking. Externally, the USD remains challenged by the contrasting monetary policy picture involving a tighter ECB/BoE/RBA relative to the Feds continued quantitative easing. This remains the yield differential driver to USD weakness. Any periodic reverberations regarding peripheral Eurozone debt concerns, equity market pullbacks disappointing earnings have proven -- and will likely to continue proving an opportunity for buying the dips in EURUSD, AUDUSD, gold and silver.

It will take the removal of the aforementioned fundamental dynamics in order for the USD to mount any credible rebound of more than 5% ie above 75 for at least 3-4 weeks. Such a strict requirement is necessary in order to avoid the several short-lived rebounds in the US currency, such as those seen in June 2009, August 2010 and February 2011.'

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/articles/another-bullish-argument-for-metals.asp

[gregb]

people with the same argument put forward in the 1970's. The best bit is its completely void of any value as an opinion in the first place, as you dont have to admit error/take praise for 30-50yrs

I will happily meet any of you here in 30 years. I will even buy the beer, and we can discuss how correct I was. There are very obvious and real patterns to civilizations that are in the collapse stages. We match all of the parameters. I suggest reading Jared Diamond's book "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed" if you are curious to know what those parameters are. It is an excellent introduction to the subject. Only a fool would believe societies don't fail. The very fact that we are typing in romanized characters rather than hieroglyphics is all the evidence you should need.

What you call "pragmatic", I call "sticking your head in the sand". No disrespect though. Many people do it all the time for various reasons. Sometimes it is even a valuable response to a situation. I suspect as the situation becomes more apparent, more and more people will start to accept the inevitable. The movement in the 70's was not wrong, they were simply fooled by politics. This time around, it isn't politics generating the problems, it is physics and geology. I put my trust in that. They've never failed me in the past.

I don't trade. I'm not smart enough or lucky enough, and I don't have the time. If I'm not 100% convinced of something, I don't even enter the market. I know where the globalized economy is heading long term, and by that I mean several decades from now. The road only goes 1 place. I can put my gold in my safe and then I don't have to think, just be secure in the knowledge that in 30 years it will still be there for me. Mathematics says fiat currencies won't.

P.S. Admitting error/taking praise is not a concern of mine. I am driven by a much more real/critical problem, and that is how to ensure my family has the resources necessary to survive the coming age. Whatever you guys may or may not think here, that is the only thing that matters, and it exists independent of this forum. I only post here so that others out there who have seen the same pattern will know they aren't crazy.

Edited May 7, 2011 by gregb

[churchill]

people with the same argument put forward in the 1970's. The best bit is its completely void of any value as an opinion in the first place, as you dont have to admit error/take praise for 30-50yrs

I will happily meet any of you here in 30 years. I will even buy the beer, and we can discuss how correct I was. There are very obvious and real patterns to civilizations that are in the collapse stages. We match all of the parameters. I suggest reading Jared Diamond's book "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed" if you are curious to know what those parameters are. It is an excellent introduction to the subject. Only a fool would believe societies don't fail. The very fact that we are typing in romanized characters rather than hieroglyphics is all the evidence you should need.

What you call "pragmatic", I call "sticking your head in the sand". No disrespect though. Many people do it all the time for various reasons. Sometimes it is even a valuable response to a situation. I suspect as the situation becomes more apparent, more and more people will start to accept the inevitable. The movement in the 70's was not wrong, they were simply fooled by politics. This time around, it isn't politics generating the problems, it is physics and geology. I put my trust in that. They've never failed me in the past.

I don't trade. I'm not smart enough or lucky enough, and I don't have the time. If I'm not 100% convinced of something, I don't even enter the market. I know where the globalized economy is heading long term, and by that I mean several decades from now. The road only goes 1 place. I can put my gold in my safe and then I don't have to think, just be secure in the knowledge that in 30 years it will still be there for me. Mathematics says fiat currencies won't.

P.S. Admitting error/taking praise is not a concern of mine. I am driven by a much more real/critical problem, and that is how to ensure my family has the resources necessary to survive the coming age. Whatever you guys may or may not think here, that is the only thing that matters, and it exists independent of this forum. I only post here so that others out there who have seen the same pattern will know they aren't crazy.

I agree with your long term view but not your long term investment choice - Why not energy , farming , agriculture , water ....

Gold is just a lump of shiny metal after all /

In the medium term and until / if the US can sort itself out PM's are a good place to be in my view - As Naam states we have to see rising REAL interest rates in the US , which Bernanke has indicated is not going to happen any time soon -

What it takes to truly stop the gold bull market

http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2011/May/6/What-it-takes-to-truly-stop-the-gold-bull-market

[badge]

Was it even a year ago you admitted to knowing almost nothing about financial markets? Thats quite a steep learning curve - with just 1 years 'experience' - to now be forecasting financial markets decades in advance, based on personal interpretations of future economic assumptions and nothing less than the collapse of civilizations.

I do however agree with 1 or 2 of your below notions, disagree with others, but added some cheeky choice thoughts

I will happily meet any of you here in 30 years. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

There are very obvious and real patterns to civilizations that are in the collapse stages. We match all of the parameters. good luck trying to make money out of ' civilizations that are in the collapse stages'

Only a fool would believe societies don't fail. The very fact that we are typing in romanized characters rather than hieroglyphics is all the evidence you should need. no one is disputing that. see above

What you call "pragmatic", I call "sticking your head in the sand". No disrespect though. Many people do it all the time for various reasons. Sometimes it is even a valuable response to a situation. I suspect as the situation becomes more apparent, more and more people will start to accept the inevitable. Perhaps you misunderstand: I suggested jcon simply was more interested in PMs movements over weeks or months. I dont see how that can be ignoring anything? Unless you mean ignoring the collapse of civilization again?

If I'm not 100% convinced of something, I don't even enter the market. I certainly respect that resolve, its certainly what has made the likes of Soros wealthy

I can put my gold in my safe and then I don't have to think, just be secure in the knowledge that in 30 years it will still be there for me. Mathematics says fiat currencies won't. A popular theme for bugs. Personally, being self-employed and working in financial markets forces me to be a bit more active, but good luck.

P.S. Admitting error/taking praise is not a concern of mine. I am driven by a much more real/critical problem, and that is how to ensure my family has the resources necessary to survive the coming age. Naturally. one tends to follow the other.

[midas]

I believe the USD will shine like a rock star in the near future,

WOW that is an interesting and bold statement. I am interested to know why you think that way

and do you mean it will stay shiny long term or will it be a shooting star ? And do you hold that

view even if there was QE 3 and even 4 ?

Today i was reading Marc Fabers report and he said

" We may see dollar strength in coming weeks or months. We may see collapsing prices in stocks and commodities. Eventually, however, the US dollar will break its historical support line and dive even further into oblivion."

Hi midas,

When I say ''near future'' I mean sometime between now and the end of the summer. There are so many factors I would not be comfortable making any long-term calls. I could see the DXY ripping up to the high-70s. After that, your guess is as good as mine. I don't think we're going to get QEx or QEx+1 just yet - or at least not in a way that we've had it before, as I believe all things must evolve. I generally don't like to fade evolution.

Re: Faber - this is the way I view things:

I see things as a film/tv production. There are actors, and many people choose to focus on what the actors are doing, and spending lots of time talking about the actors. Faber is an actor in this particular analogy of a production. His entrenched position is good for getting attention, but who knows what his actual book looks like. He will play that role as long as it suits him, just as an actor will. There are also, however, directors, line producers, executive producers, studio executives, and investors. The higher up that ladder you go, the more access you have to information/insight. Up there is where the shots are called and the deals are made. To be a successful trader, you need to look beyond the actors - they are just there to entertain, and by design. Everybody is important to make the production successful, but one must look at the larger picture to try and understand the game. Just my 2 cents.

Hi Jcon

Yes I agree with you Faber does love media attention Although i wasn't just relying on what

he said versus what you said because he is not the only one as you know. Maybe i am being

brainwashed by so many " experts " who are very gloomy about not just the dollar

but the Euro and Yen also. But the fact is i can't remember reading about anyone

who has your contrarian view of the $ i.e. if you are expecting a sustained long term recovery.

I can go along short bursts but not a sustained recovery - i just cannot imagine what could

be the catalyst for that ?

I just can't see why at the some point the so called " faith " that backs all these fiat currencies

isn't simply just going to break down when enough people understand the Emperor has no clothes ?

Edited May 8, 2011 by midas

[dananderson]

The $ may fare better against currency's that have greater debt vs gdp than the US but that is a short list. The US has a long road to hoe to get it's financial house in order.

[jcon]

Heavy fare for a Sunday afternoon (call your mothers, it's Mother's Day in the US!), so I'll try to keep it short.

@gregb: I think there are some logic ''flaws,'' if you will (no offense), in what you've posted about the 30-50year time frame. I don't really want to get into it right now, but I would just say perhaps consider the idea that the biggest effect on final outcomes is made in the first few choices. That's the idea behind adaptive testing (the newer standardized testing, for example), and I'm sure somebody versed in game theory can better explain it. So to make giant assumptions about a 50year time frame (yet ironically, saying there is ''too much to consider to make a short-term prediction'') kind of goes against that idea.

Somewhere in the Financial Crisis thread there was a discussion in which I brought up evolutionary theory and make a connection with finance. Abrak mentioned chaos theory, the butterfly effect, and random walk. There was a nice little discussion in there, and maybe you can access it through the search function. You mention physics and geology, and base your entire financial future on the assumption of total collapse of society. Well, with such an entrenched view, it's obviously difficult to have any type of real discourse, so I would just say perhaps consider that beyond physics and geology, there is also mathematics, biology, psychology, philosophy, etc., etc. and they would all need to be considered to create a well-rounded world view. To relegate anything to ''collapse of civilization'' is well, counter-productive. Humanity will not fail - Adapt And Survive, that is a theme bigger than any collapse of any certain ''civilizations'' at any given point in time. Like I said before, I don't like to fade evolution. If you really don't believe that humanity will survive, then well that's what you believe and I wish you the best.

There was also some graphic posted which highlighted some collapse of the world (with a convenient time frame, no less). I don't remember the thread, but I did make a promise to report to the members of this board about my battle with the zombies in 30-40 years. That still stands. I hope Will Smith is still alive to help me and to keep me from eating my future wife out of hunger and despair. I Am Legend v.2.0.

In short: badge pretty much said it already, and I agree with him.

@midas: I didn't mention a sustained recovery in the USD- I believe I said that I believe the DXY can run on a tear up to the high 70s in short order. Beyond that, who knows. I don't believe we will live in a future world exchanging PM coins, however. If anything, I take the opposite view in that we will go even beyond paper "fiat" and go even more into electron ''fiat.'' Then some folks will really froth at the mouth. I say go with the flow, but hedge accordingly. It's quite simple really - and must less stressful. You don't want to be the guy who nobody wants to invite to the party because all they talk about is the end of the world (not saying you are, but just sayin'). BTW, I know you like to read zerohedge, but I'm calling a top in that site. It seems to have had its own parabolic blow-off (see comments section for proof - people have become emotional/delusional over such a small thing, and that sends a big signal aka reminds me of "message boards" during the dot-com bust).

Re: Faber - I'd rather see Naam in a Worf-suit sporting a German/Klingon accent talking about "Earth's Bonds vs. Klingon Bonds." Now that would be entertainment.

edit: grammar

Edited May 8, 2011 by jcon

[Naam]

Re: Faber - I'd rather see Naam in a Worf-suit sporting a German/Klingon accent talking about "Earth's Bonds vs. Klingon Bonds." Now that would be entertainment.

on demand i am also able to do a 'swiss-german Faber' [ze doller iss doomed, wezzer yew like it or not!] even better than Faber himself

[midas]

@midas: I didn't mention a sustained recovery in the USD- I believe I said that I believe the DXY can run on a tear up to the high 70s in short order. Beyond that, who knows. I don't believe we will live in a future world exchanging PM coins, however. If anything, I take the opposite view in that we will go even beyond paper "fiat" and go even more into electron ''fiat.'' Then some folks will really froth at the mouth. I say go with the flow, but hedge accordingly. It's quite simple really - and must less stressful. You don't want to be the guy who nobody wants to invite to the party because all they talk about is the end of the world (not saying you are, but just sayin'). BTW, I know you like to read zerohedge, but I'm calling a top in that site. It seems to have had its own parabolic blow-off (see comments section for proof - people have become emotional/delusional over such a small thing, and that sends a big signal aka reminds me of "message boards" during the dot-com bust).

Jcon I was only asking about the reasons for your “ optimism “ regarding the US $ so I don’t want to stray away from the subject matter of this thread but I feel I need to reply to some of your comments.

I am not in the least bit stressed ( in fact these days I am more entertained by the shenanigans ) but I am perplexed as to why you equate my lack of enthuisiasm for the future of fiat currencies as being akin to the “ end of the world “ ?

And yes I do read zerohedge but I also sometimes take a look at many others such as Mish Shedlock, Karl Denninger, Jesse's Café Américain etc. ( and note they all seem to be banging the same drum about the US dollar ).

And I also read the comments section of zerohedge - very much so! I have always done this because I sometimes find it more informative even than the article they relate to. Actually from my own perspective I don’t see any change in the

" sentiment " in the comments . But if you are right, in that some comments seem to you to be “ off the wall “ and maybe even a bit nutty … then I believe it simply reflects a deep rooted frustration and anger and anyone who thinks that will only ever be expressed in the form of " a top " as you put it on the zerohedge website but not in the real world in my opinion are delusional ( i.e unless there are some significant changes ).

Just listen to language coming out of the ordinary people in Greece and Ireland right now and I think they have already lit the fuse because I really think they are going to tell their governments and the EU to take a hike. And I can’t see how USA can avoid the same austerity measures at some point in the future. But your guess is as good as mine as to whether Americans will react in the same way as I believe the people of Greece and Ireland are getting ready to do ( with some cajoling from the likes of Max Keiser ) .

Edited May 8, 2011 by midas

[midas]

and talking about max Keiser....this letter was posted on his webpage

Posted on May 8, 2011 by maxkeiser| 12 Comments

To:

Date: Sun, 8 May 2011 18:18:27 +1000

Subject: Friday 6th at Aussie Bulion Dealer

Max,

Just thought that you would be interested to know that at the only real bullion dealer in Brisbane today there were queues 15-30 people deep literally all day long (both women and men, blue and white collar), and they completely cleaned out the stock of everything. I’ve never seen it like this at all. A number had heavy duty trolleys and suitcases to take home their booty. For the last few weeks it had been relatively quiet, but the SLA is definitely coming out of the woodwork now.

Appreciate your work

Dav0

http://maxkeiser.com/

[jcon]

Hi midas,

The end-of-the-world stuff was in response to gregb's response to badge's response to gregb's response to my response, not to you

I don't know how to approach the rest of the conversation anymore. I think you need to look at the world with a bit of a larger lens, but who am I to say. You see what you want to see. I'm not even going to go there with that last post about the max keiser thing, but I laughed out loud.

Just when those folks are patting themselves on the back and digging up holes for the ''heavy duty trolleys," then begins the shanking. Just like a real shanking, it won't be pretty. Rejoice a pop to 38/oz, then a left-right-center shankfest. Everybody is entitled to their own opinion, you've heard mine.

[Naam]

A number had heavy duty trolleys and suitcases to take home their booty.

[flying]

A number had heavy duty trolleys and suitcases to take home their booty.

Funny but somewhat true when it comes to AG...Not so much with AU

Having just done that swap I told you about I am always amazed at how much easier

it is physically with AU

About 41 times easier these days

[midas]

Hi midas,

The end-of-the-world stuff was in response to gregb's response to badge's response to gregb's response to my response, not to you

I don't know how to approach the rest of the conversation anymore. I think you need to look at the world with a bit of a larger lens, but who am I to say. You see what you want to see. I'm not even going to go there with that last post about the max keiser thing, but I laughed out loud.

Just when those folks are patting themselves on the back and digging up holes for the ''heavy duty trolleys," then begins the shanking. Just like a real shanking, it won't be pretty. Rejoice a pop to 38/oz, then a left-right-center shankfest. Everybody is entitled to their own opinion, you've heard mine.

" I think you need to look at the world with a bit of a larger lens "

And Jcon your comment also made ME laugh out loud

You mean just believe and follow what the MSM are saying which for 7 days

now 24 hours a day have concentrated on nothing but one story and

if i hear about it again i will vomit

[midas]

What the silver bears are overlooking is this is not a " market " in the conventional sense-

its about getting your mojo back !!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vs7-yDO6i9Y&feature=player_embedded

[flying]

This one is funny too

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9LcKcXpCDE&feature=player_embedded

[lannarebirth]

Anyoneone got a guess where price discovery might lead if only producers and end users could buy AU and AG futures as hedging vehicles? That, after all is what the futures market was intended for.

[churchill]

<---------------------- my cat says, "wow."

AUD/USD short @ 1.06528 11:01pm

XAU/USD shrort @ 1489.430 10:57pm

NO STOPS, NO TARGETS. Speculation at its finest. I can't even think yet, that stuff moved so fast after I said it I was blown away. I just had to put something on. I posted at 9:52pm and within minutes things were moving.

DXY will be fierce.

Silver crushed.

Crude crushed.

Gold is next.

flying, I'd love to short silver but I need a breather and that thing is so volatile frankly it's borderline insane. I will consider it once I get some rest (by then we'll be in a 2-handle.......)

So there: money, meet mouth, mouth meet money. I hope my cat is right.

2nd thoughts ?

[midas]

<---------------------- my cat says, "wow."

AUD/USD short @ 1.06528 11:01pm

XAU/USD shrort @ 1489.430 10:57pm

NO STOPS, NO TARGETS. Speculation at its finest. I can't even think yet, that stuff moved so fast after I said it I was blown away. I just had to put something on. I posted at 9:52pm and within minutes things were moving.

DXY will be fierce.

Silver crushed.

Crude crushed.

Gold is next.

flying, I'd love to short silver but I need a breather and that thing is so volatile frankly it's borderline insane. I will consider it once I get some rest (by then we'll be in a 2-handle.......)

So there: money, meet mouth, mouth meet money. I hope my cat is right.

2nd thoughts ?

[jcon]

Really guys? Come on.

There exists a massive options collar in Au at around 13xx with the collars around 15xx and 11xx (depending on the source, I believe the numbers are 157x on the upper collar and 116x on the lower collar for the futures). We've hit the upper collar to a tee (I never would have believed it if I didn't see it myself). I firmly believe the options will wag the futures dog from now until the end of the summer, at least).

I don't know what large Ag option positions are out there, but I will lay on a short as promised just for your enjoyment if we bounce to 38.x.

All trades are still in, and there is no such thing as 2nd thoughts - there exists only the other side of the trade. 2nd thoughts would imply emotion, which does not make a good trader.

Au/Ag shorts are/will be 12x levered. I would prefer something like 5x, but it is a spec trade so I'll take the 12x.

Just like 4 days ago, 3 days, ago, 2 days and yesterday, I'm still going with Au 13xx by end of summer (and now I've told you the low end of the collar so it's there), and silver sub-20 (I said 18, but to make that call is a bit super-trader-ish). It won't be necessary to ask me every single day until the end of the summer if I'm still in the trade, it's a spec and and I'm in until my bank says I'm out (or I say I'm out). All of you can run the numbers yourselves and let the chips fall where they may.

Now watch as the options make the futures.

lanna: in a hedge-only world, I'd say 7-10 Ag and 400-550 Au (or less). I believe you were actually making a statement more than asking a question (lanna-zen-yoda-style), but I'm just tossing it out there. Crude would be the best one to quell the speculation, as it matters most.

edit: grammar

sub-edit: Obviously, I have a trading bias that takes into account options. That is to be expected, as it is the product in which I cut my teeth. Whenever I consider something, my first thought is ''what's happening in the options market?" Others of you may have a different bias as to why you make the trades you do (here is where I would normally insert coin-dealer jab, but I won't -- dangit, I just did ).

Edited May 9, 2011 by jcon