Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[RedFxTrade]

ECB Board Member Says Greece Can Raise $429 Billion Selling Assets / ECB member Juergen Stark says Greece may raise up to 300 billion euros from selloffs.

Where does this quote come from?

I have no idea what Naam is talking about. He must have taken a few irrational pills when he woke up....

Reuters; Greece may raise up to 300 bln euros from selloffs: ECB's Stark

(Reuters) - Greece could raise as much as 300 billion euros ($429 billion) if it steps up its efforts to sell off state-owned assets, European Central Bank Board member Juergen Stark was quoted as saying on Saturday.

Athens could raise 300 billion euros with sell-offs: ECB

Greece could raise up to six times more than planned by selling state assets, an ECB policymaker said, as the country's leader renewed efforts to forge a political consensus on new austerity measures.

Echoing earlier views from the IMF, European Central Bank Board member Juergen Stark said on Saturday that Greece's privatization program was nowhere near ambitious enough.

The program -- part of a broader package of fiscal reforms to help stave off fiscal meltdown -- is intended to raise 50 billion euros by 2015

"The Greek government has shares in listed companies, it owns real estate. Experts estimate the sales potential (from privatizations) at up to 300 billion euros ($429.5 billion)," Stark told German newspaper Welt am Sonntag.

I have really not idea what Naam is saying. Mish said he was skeptical that Greece could raise this money and thinks that Stark is lying about the amount, akin to Paulsons bazooka moment, when he claimed we only need the $750 billion rescue fund to show we have it, but we will not use it...yeah right.

What is Mish bullshitting about? He quoted Reuters articles and the same articles that were posted on the FT, CNBC, CNN, BBC...So the way it is then that Stark who has admitted to being a liar is the only one telling the truth and everyone else is lying including all the journalists and bloggers...strange, irrational and dogmatic way to look at things.

[Naam]

Euro area President Jean-Claude Juncker said last month he is willing to mislead the public if the price in terms of market stability is right.

Considering that Greece's problems started in earnest when it came to light it had lied about its debt and deficit numbers, this is quite an ironic position for European officialdom to take.

"When it becomes serious, you have to lie," Juncker said.

there is Juncker and there is Stark. one is the Prime Minister of Luxembourg, the other one is a german citizen and a board member of the ECB.

questions: when did Stark lie Red? where is Stark mentioned in the link "Its ok to lie" you provided? are you copying Mish?

Stark probably did say...

probably? my àss!

next!

[Naam]

here's the complete interview "Stark / Welt am Sonntag" published yesterday.

http://www.welt.de/print/wams/wirtschaft/article13400562/Griechenland-ist-kein-Fass-ohne-Boden.html

[Naam]

So the way it is then that Stark who has admitted to being a liar...

repeating bullshit by mixing up Juncker with Stark does not convert bullshit into truth!

[RedFxTrade]

Euro area President Jean-Claude Juncker said last month he is willing to mislead the public if the price in terms of market stability is right.

Considering that Greece's problems started in earnest when it came to light it had lied about its debt and deficit numbers, this is quite an ironic position for European officialdom to take.

"When it becomes serious, you have to lie," Juncker said.

there is Juncker and there is Stark. one is the Prime Minister of Luxembourg, the other one is a german citizen and a board member of the ECB.

questions: when did Stark lie Red? where is Stark mentioned in the link "Its ok to lie" you provided? are you copying Mish?

Stark probably did say...

probably? my àss!

next!

MY bad Naam, got the two mixed up...career in journalism for me then

However, I think to disregard Mish on the basis that he quoted reuters who were the source of the English tabloid translations is a bit irrational. However I have noticed that Reuters have two translations...the other is where Stark said "experts said they can raise 300 billion Euros"..So Stark it did seem said it indirectly. Have you got the original article? In the end it is all academic, as it does not change the facts about Greece, and that it probably cannot raise this amount. We all know how the "experts" like to use market to market accounting or marked to fantasy accounting.

[RedFxTrade]

here's the complete interview "Stark / Welt am Sonntag" published yesterday.

http://www.welt.de/p...ohne-Boden.html

Thanks for this...I used google translate for this part...and it came out like this

Each process requires a first step. Prime Minister Giorgos Papandreou announced the program only in the March of this yearly. First of all an independent privatisation agency must be created, this process accompanied by the government. But one can make oneself the experiences of other states too own, including the trust establishment in Germany. The Greek government holds portions of quoted enterprises, it possesses real estate. Experts estimate the sales potential on up to 300 billion euros. A part of these values must be mobilized, in order to lower the debt level. In addition privatisations cause more efficiency in the entire national economy.

So it seems he was happy to concur with the experts and reiterated their opinion? If he did not agree with the experts I m sure he would not have quoted them. So one way or another he indirectly said Greece could sell 300 billion of assets?

[jcon]

edit: I see Red just wrote the above.

Edited May 30, 2011 by jcon

[Naam]

MY bad Naam, got the two mixed up... career in journalism for me then

indeed! but to be on the same level as Reuters and Bloomberg journàsslists you have to learn to write millions when it's billions and vice versa. not an easy job.

[Naam]

Have you got the original article?

another one who is in dire need of reading glasses

[RedFxTrade]

edit: I see Red just wrote the above.

That ll be me It just shows their are too many bureaucrats which is causing me to get mixed up between them all.

[RedFxTrade]

another one who is in dire need of reading glasses

I was writing as you posted it...but I have already responded,haha....do you want to borrow those reading glasses?

[Naam]

So it seems he was happy to concur with the experts and reiterated their opinion? If he did not agree with the experts I m sure he would not have quoted them. So one way or another he indirectly said Greece could sell 300 billion of assets?

"so it seems" you are "indirectly" and indeed "one way or another" qualified to be a "happy" journàsslist "concurring" with your colleagues with the results they poke out of their noses or other orifices

[Naam]

Why is it irrational to think that people might want to withdraw money and their life savings from an insolvent bank?

not irrational at all but

1. until this very moment there are no insolvent greek banks (no matter how often you repeat it).

2. i keep daily close contact with three greek colleagues in a financial forum (two live in Athens, one lives in Saloniki) who would have definitely mentioned any obvious bank run that happened last week. take a wild guess what the most discussed topic in this forum is. i'll give you some hints: it's not the prevailing bride price a headhunter has to pay to his future father-in-law in Papua New Guinea and it's not the possible outcome of a soccer game between Manchester United and Dynamo Vladivostok.

[RedFxTrade]

Why is it irrational to think that people might want to withdraw money and their life savings from an insolvent bank?

not irrational at all but

1. until this very moment there are no insolvent greek banks (no matter how often you repeat it).

2. i keep daily close contact with three greek colleagues in a financial forum (two live in Athens, one lives in Saloniki) who would have definitely mentioned any obvious bank run that happened last week. take a wild guess what the most discussed topic in this forum is. i'll give you some hints: it's not the prevailing bride price a headhunter has to pay to his future father-in-law in Papua New Guinea and it's not the possible outcome of a soccer game between Manchester United and Dynamo Vladivostok.

I tend to disagree, Greek banks are insolvent, the extend and pretend game is in play. If those Greek bonds that the ECB has bought up were dumped onto the market, rather than artificially propped up by the ECB then they would be gone. On paper they are insolvent, technically. But if one lies, and uses accounting chicanery, that can be postponed, but it does not change the fact they the Greek banks liabilities far outweigh their assets. If Greek banks do not take the loss, then it will be the ECB who will take it,,,or print it away, either way it is default.

[12DrinkMore]

Panic Capital Flight in Greece, Depositors Yank 1.5 Billion Euros in 2 Days

translated from an unknown greek online news site. no greek newspaper, no international newspaper, no reports from any greek or european tv-station, no Reuters, no Bloomberg published related news.

surely another combined Bilderberg-Illuminati and most probably al-Qaeda conspiracy suppressing all information!

http://www.faz.net/a...b-30363531.html

Wie die griechische Notenbank am Dienstag mitteilte, sind die privaten Geldeinlagen von Januar 2010 bis April 2011 um mehr als 31 auf 165,5 Milliarden Euro gesunken.

As the Greek central bank announced on Tuesday that private cash call deposits from January 2010 to April 2011 have fallen by more than 31 to 165.5 billion euros.

Edited May 30, 2011 by 12DrinkMore

[badge]

Buttonwood

Faith and the markets

The religious rituals of the finance sector

May 26th 2011 | from the print edition

HAROLD CAMPING, the radio preacher who inaccurately forecast that the Apocalypse would begin on May 21st, made a rookie’s mistake. Any pundit could have told him that when you forecast an event, you should not name a date. But if you are forced into doing so, choose a date so far in the future that you will not be around to be proved wrong.

http://www.economist.com/node/18744391

[neil324]

http://www.google.gr/#hl=el&source=hp&q=%CE%BC%CE%B1%CE%B6%CE%B9%CE%BA%CE%AD%CF%82+%CE%B1%CE%BD%CE%B1%CE%BB%CE%AE%CF%88%CE%B5%CE%B9%CF%82&btnG=%CE%91%CE%BD%CE%B1%CE%B6%CE%AE%CF%84%CE%B7%CF%83%CE%B7+Google&oq=%CE%BC%CE%B1%CE%B6%CE%B9%CE%BA%CE%AD%CF%82+%CE%B1%CE%BD%CE%B1%CE%BB%CE%AE%CF%88%CE%B5%CE%B9%CF%82&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&gs_sm=s&gs_upl=3639l3639l0l1l1l0l0l0l0l99l99l1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.&fp=951eadba6a98a3c7&biw=1440&bih=785

[Naam]

sind die privaten Geldeinlagen von Januar 2010 bis April 2011 um mehr als 31 auf 165,5 Milliarden Euro gesunken.

= a "high cube" event

[cloudhopper]

I've got to start vaporizing a different strain, nothing on this thread is making sense any more...

[Naam]

I tend to disagree, Greek banks are insolvent, the extend and pretend game is in play. If those Greek bonds that the ECB has bought up were dumped onto the market, rather than artificially propped up by the ECB then they would be gone. On paper they are insolvent, technically. But if one lies, and uses accounting chicanery, that can be postponed, but it does not change the fact they the Greek banks liabilities far outweigh their assets. If Greek banks do not take the loss, then it will be the ECB who will take it,,,or print it away, either way it is default.

now "insolvency" suddenly mutated to "default" if technically could would were...

technically i could afford a couple of mia nois if my Old Lady and me were in agreement

[Naam]

I've got to start vaporizing a different strain, nothing on this thread is making sense any more...

the whole thing started with "run on banks in Greece" which in turn "will drive gold prices up".

[cloudhopper]

Here's a wide-ranging discussion of gold and currencies along with their views on how hyper inflation will look. Like most in the hyper inflation school they don't talk too much about the aftermath of a currency collapse other than insisting hoping that gold will be part or all of the subsequent replacement currency. Historically AFAIK the hyper inflated currencies were all quite successfully replaced with fiat after they collapsed.

http://www.goldmoney.com/video/greyerz-interview.html

[flying]

I've got to start vaporizing a different strain, nothing on this thread is making sense any more...

Yeah +1

Remember when this thread was about where gold is going?

[RedFxTrade]

I've got to start vaporizing a different strain, nothing on this thread is making sense any more...

Yeah +1

Remember when this thread was about where gold is going?

Apart from the pedantic nature of a few posts between Naam (his statements always draw me in) and myself yesterday...I think the solvency of an EU member is highly relevant to where Gold is going unless I m missing something

Here is a set of very interesting charts of the USD Index going back 3-4 decades. USD Powerful Rally Coming. I have been long USD for a few weeks now. The point worth remembering that being long USD is not necessarily an anti-gold play, unless you belong to one of the dogmatic gold bug religious groups, where being long USD and Gold at the same time is akin to the religious equivalent of being a right wing Christian/Creationist and also a devout follower of Islamic Sharia law . Gold good very well still go up with the USD. The interesting thing about the above linked charts to the PDF by Ross Clark is how the USD bottoms, you can see a subset of charts where it shows how each major USD bottom formed on a daily timeframe. Once again it seems to be following the pattern to the letter. Of course it does not have to play out like that this time, but until it doesn't then it is still in play. Seasonally we are moving towards a negative bias for risk assets, the stock market is over valued by any historical measure, the USD short positions have eased, the retail traders are slowly turning net short the USD (contrarian signal), and a mammoth 77% of retail positionings on Silver are long. The extreme positive sentiment towards Silver in the retail crowd is still high.

Another move up to 90 on the USD Index is not out of the question with an outside chance of a move towards 100...something almost unthinkable. I do not think a move towards 100 is likely due to the interventionist nature of the government and central banks but needs some consideration if some true black swan appears. However, it is worth noting that the FED did not want the USD to move from 71 to 90 in 2008, but it happened so fast, that they really had no choice in it. So if it gains momentum I don't think the FED will be able to over ride the rally in the short term.

The USD Index is against a basket of currencies and has no gold component after all. The USD against other fiat currencies I believe is in the process of a major rally. It is a case of the finding the least ugly sister in a fiat world. The USD despite all the focus on it is more attractive at this juncture than the AUD, CAD, EUR and GBP, and even the CHF. Although some powerful trends are in place I think they seem to be turning. This is based on technicals for some, and fundamentals also. The AUD I think has a terrible fundamental outlook for the next number of months.

So all in all, the next few months should see a stronger USD against other fiat currencies. Gold may or may not move higher. The chart attached is the one I posted the Sunday before last, and here is the same chart obviously with the price now higher than then, and following the trajectory so far. The green rectangle area marked is an area where I see value as in I only see value there as that is where other market players are seeing value...as the highest volume has occurred at those price levels, and gold has moved higher from here once the equilibrium between buyers and sellers becomes dis-equilibrium in favour of bulls. This is where I could see gold drift to by the middle to the end of the summer, and the ending of a seasonally weak period. Whether we get a failure to make a new high on this little rally underway right now, or we get a spike up to $1650 area first before a move down who knows.

In summary, Gold to stay firm, before settling into a low between $1420-1490. Silver to under perform, price targets lower end of band would be $26 and higher end $30-33$. USD to be stronger against most currencies, risk assets down, US T-Bonds up/yields down

Edited May 31, 2011 by RedFxTrade

[Naam]

Here is a set of very interesting charts of the USD Index going back 3-4 decades. USD Powerful Rally Coming.

The USD against other fiat currencies I believe is in the process of a major rally. It is a case of the finding the least ugly sister in a fiat world. The USD despite all the focus on it is more attractive at this juncture than the AUD, CAD, EUR and GBP, and even the CHF. Although some powerful trends are in place I think they seem to be turning. This is based on technicals for some, and fundamentals also.

to forecast a powerful USD rally one doesn't need any charts nor fundamentals Red. all what has to happen is that Greece goes belly-up. should that not be the case and the EU finds a way to square the greek circle or delays a greek default for a considerable time then watch USD and most probably CHF tank as they never tanked before and no colourful lines on charts will prevent it.

today is an excellent example how the slightest rumour about EU > Greece assistance effects currency markets.

[churchill]

Here is a set of very interesting charts of the USD Index going back 3-4 decades. USD Powerful Rally Coming.

The USD against other fiat currencies I believe is in the process of a major rally. It is a case of the finding the least ugly sister in a fiat world. The USD despite all the focus on it is more attractive at this juncture than the AUD, CAD, EUR and GBP, and even the CHF. Although some powerful trends are in place I think they seem to be turning. This is based on technicals for some, and fundamentals also.

to forecast a powerful USD rally one doesn't need any charts nor fundamentals Red. all what has to happen is that Greece goes belly-up. should that not be the case and the EU finds a way to square the greek circle or delays a greek default for a considerable time then watch USD and most probably CHF tank as they never tanked before and no colourful lines on charts will prevent it.

today is an excellent example how the slightest rumour about EU > Greece assistance effects currency markets.

I agree - There seems to be support for the Euro and Gold as Governments diversify and unless we get a major Stockmarket Crash or Greece does go belly up then I think the dollar rally will have to wait until mid next year when the Fed starts to indicate raising rates /

see Deficit Solution Unlikely Soon, Putting Dollar at Risk: Gross

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43192337

[churchill]

Many are or were expecting Gold and Silver to have a big correction at the end of QE2 - as always to buy lower but still expecting higher future prices - Is that view now starting to change /

For chartists - Gold and Silver Form Promising Bullish Divergences

http://www.fgmr.com/gold-and-silver-form-promising-bullish-divergences.html

and Richard Russell: BUY SILVER http://www.businessinsider.com/richard-russell-buy-silver-2011-5?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+%28ClusterStock%29

[churchill]

Needed: Plain Talk About the Dollar

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/22/business/economy/22view.html

Christina D. Romer is an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and was the chairwoman of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers.

'But in a depressed economy, it isn’t so clear that a strong dollar is desirable. A weaker dollar means that our goods are cheaper relative to foreign goods. That stimulates our exports and reduces our imports. Higher net exports raise domestic production and employment. Foreign goods are more expensive, but more Americans are working. Given the desperate need for jobs, on net we are almost surely better off with a weaker dollar for a while.

Fed policy is determined by inflation and unemployment in the United States. But if Mr. Bernanke could discuss the exchange rate openly, he would probably tell you that one way any monetary expansion helps a distressed economy is by weakening the dollar. That is taught in every introductory economics course, yet the Fed is asked to pretend it isn’t true.'

[churchill]

I've got to start vaporizing a different strain, nothing on this thread is making sense any more...

Yeah +1

Remember when this thread was about where gold is going?

Apart from the pedantic nature of a few posts between Naam (his statements always draw me in) and myself yesterday...I think the solvency of an EU member is highly relevant to where Gold is going unless I m missing something

Here is a set of very interesting charts of the USD Index going back 3-4 decades. USD Powerful Rally Coming. I have been long USD for a few weeks now. The point worth remembering that being long USD is not necessarily an anti-gold play, unless you belong to one of the dogmatic gold bug religious groups, where being long USD and Gold at the same time is akin to the religious equivalent of being a right wing Christian/Creationist and also a devout follower of Islamic Sharia law . Gold good very well still go up with the USD. The interesting thing about the above linked charts to the PDF by Ross Clark is how the USD bottoms, you can see a subset of charts where it shows how each major USD bottom formed on a daily timeframe. Once again it seems to be following the pattern to the letter. Of course it does not have to play out like that this time, but until it doesn't then it is still in play. Seasonally we are moving towards a negative bias for risk assets, the stock market is over valued by any historical measure, the USD short positions have eased, the retail traders are slowly turning net short the USD (contrarian signal), and a mammoth 77% of retail positionings on Silver are long. The extreme positive sentiment towards Silver in the retail crowd is still high.

Another move up to 90 on the USD Index is not out of the question with an outside chance of a move towards 100...something almost unthinkable. I do not think a move towards 100 is likely due to the interventionist nature of the government and central banks but needs some consideration if some true black swan appears. However, it is worth noting that the FED did not want the USD to move from 71 to 90 in 2008, but it happened so fast, that they really had no choice in it. So if it gains momentum I don't think the FED will be able to over ride the rally in the short term.

The USD Index is against a basket of currencies and has no gold component after all. The USD against other fiat currencies I believe is in the process of a major rally. It is a case of the finding the least ugly sister in a fiat world. The USD despite all the focus on it is more attractive at this juncture than the AUD, CAD, EUR and GBP, and even the CHF. Although some powerful trends are in place I think they seem to be turning. This is based on technicals for some, and fundamentals also. The AUD I think has a terrible fundamental outlook for the next number of months.

So all in all, the next few months should see a stronger USD against other fiat currencies. Gold may or may not move higher. The chart attached is the one I posted the Sunday before last, and here is the same chart obviously with the price now higher than then, and following the trajectory so far. The green rectangle area marked is an area where I see value as in I only see value there as that is where other market players are seeing value...as the highest volume has occurred at those price levels, and gold has moved higher from here once the equilibrium between buyers and sellers becomes dis-equilibrium in favour of bulls. This is where I could see gold drift to by the middle to the end of the summer, and the ending of a seasonally weak period. Whether we get a failure to make a new high on this little rally underway right now, or we get a spike up to $1650 area first before a move down who knows.

In summary, Gold to stay firm, before settling into a low between $1420-1490. Silver to under perform, price targets lower end of band would be $26 and higher end $30-33$. USD to be stronger against most currencies, risk assets down, US T-Bonds up/yields down

Was this the cause and Could it happen again ?

'In October 2008 the global financial markets crashed. The story in the media is that it was a panic caused by the insolvency of Lehman Brothers. This is not the truth - or at least not all of it. The crash actually followed a $2 trillion margin call by these four global banks on their prime brokerage clients and OTC counterparties - effectively a 30 per cent increase in required margin. It was the margin call that forced liquidation of global portfolios of all asset classes - and particularly the high quality, most liquid asset classes.

Eligible margin is defined by bilateral agreement for both prime brokerage and OTC derivatives. According to the ISDA Margin Survey for 2009, the eligible collateral at the time of the crash was predominantly US dollar cash, euro cash and US Treasury securities.

Bilateral agreements are not made public, and neither are the margin calls. This is why the $2 trillion dollar margin call did not make the news. Each prime brokerge client and each OTC counterparty dealt with their margin call as a bilateral obligation, despite it being systemically the most important event in the history of financial markets.

As the markets crashed, the US Congress was threatened with chaos and martial law if it did not pass the Paulson Plan to grant $700 billion to Wall Street banks without any formal process or review. The Federal Reserve in parallel innovated a series of secret, extra-legal measures to give money to the same banks in exchange for assets which would never be disclosed, publicly valued or audited. The need to raise dollar liquidity globally to meet margin calls in US dollar led to the innovation of central bank dollar swaps - to preferred central banks only, of course.

After all the global liquidity had been sucked into the hands of these few global banks, and the dollar surged to strength along with US Treasuries, the game of increasing leverage started all over. The firms sitting on all the margin cash and global liquidity bought up all the quality assets lying about the crashed global markets at deep discount, then they started lending again. They have been reporting huge profits consistently ever since as their clients and counterparties take the assets and exposures in this "recovery" on terms very profitable to those running the markets and liqudity business.

And remember, these few firms see all your positions and know all your clearing balances better than you can. And they chair all the margin committees at all your clearinghouses and exchanges too. And they even own the warehouses where you believe your gold, silver and other hedges against financial chaos are supposed to be stored.

We are now nearing the same global levels of leverage as prevailed in summer 2008. The political situations in the US and in Europe are unstable, and China is slowing. There is money to be made in instability. '

http://londonbanker.blogspot.com/2011/05/concentration-manipulation-and-margin.html

[jcon]

Needed: Plain Talk About the Dollar

http://www.nytimes.c...omy/22view.html

Christina D. Romer is an economics professor at the University of California, Berkeley, and was the chairwoman of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers.

'But in a depressed economy, it isn't so clear that a strong dollar is desirable. A weaker dollar means that our goods are cheaper relative to foreign goods. That stimulates our exports and reduces our imports. Higher net exports raise domestic production and employment. Foreign goods are more expensive, but more Americans are working. Given the desperate need for jobs, on net we are almost surely better off with a weaker dollar for a while.

Fed policy is determined by inflation and unemployment in the United States. But if Mr. Bernanke could discuss the exchange rate openly, he would probably tell you that one way any monetary expansion helps a distressed economy is by weakening the dollar. That is taught in every introductory economics course, yet the Fed is asked to pretend it isn't true.'

Hmm... well she is a professor and that sounds like something a professor would say...

But perhaps it would be wise to consider correlation vs. causation vs. unintended consequences vs.intended consequences?