Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[serenitynow]

We all know the price of gold is manipulated. It has gone from $300 to $1800 over the last decade, so I guess they have not been doing a great job. Eventually there will come a point where the demand for ownership in the physical form will collapse the paper gold fraud.

How come no one ever considers the possibility that it has been manipulated to the upside? What do the think the futures market (as used currently) and ETF's are for?

[letitbe]

I know you trade some paper but I am glad your physical is safely tucked away

i wish i could share your opinion on "safely tucked away" Flying. if the shit really hits the fan in a BIG way then even physical gold, no matter where it is stored, can be considered "safe". and that applies especially to gold which is stored ~15 travelling hours away. moreover, restrictions apply when moving easily negotiable values from one country to another. the often spread fairy tales "legal tender = no restrictions" is nothing but

Ive often wondered how safe or useful if shit really hit fanour small cash of physical gold here would be. I suppose probably better thanin west given asia’s love of gold any restrictions on taking it out or holdingit would probably cause war or revolution. We don’t hold much about 50 baht ( 1million baht or so) and only as a hedge against total disaster. Weve bought andsold it over years when we needed money for something since we could not thinkof anything better to do with spare emergency cash. Weve held gold in Hong Kongvia HSB bank which claims to be backed by physical gold buy who knows and havein past had some gold ETF’s in Singapore. Well actually bought on Singaporeexchange via USA gld. Ive never reckoned on gold as an investment and most peopleforget that fro around 30 years it was a terrible investment going down over50% in real terms. I never thought id bebuying gold but after 2008/9 financial crash decided to buy around 60,000 us $worth in Hong Kong and Singapore gld and HSBC (Hong Kong). During last 3 years weve sold all of it itseveral times when we saw maybe an opportunity in property or land here andthen when we sold the property we always bought it back at a higher rate. Werecently sold all of it at 1750 to buy a bit more land and another condofor quick sale. We are not cleverinvestors but make odd 100-250,000 baht luckily on odd property deal but havealso very occasionally lost a little.

Ive always looked at our gold holding as an insurance policyin case world does go totally tits up and we enter another great depression oras a hedge against steady erosion ofwestern currencies. I still view it as such and if world ever sorts out westdebt nightmare and gets its house back into some form of normal order gold willprobably and rightly crash by 50% or so. I wont be unhappy since that wouldalmost certainly mean the rest of our investments which are majority of ourportfolio go up.

??? does anyone know of legal restriction’s in taking goldout of Thailand. Ive done it many timesbut only in relatively small amounts 20 baht of gold or so or at todays price500,000 baht or so. ???

[farang000999]

We all know the price of gold is manipulated. It has gone from $300 to $1800 over the last decade, so I guess they have not been doing a great job. Eventually there will come a point where the demand for ownership in the physical form will collapse the paper gold fraud.

How come no one ever considers the possibility that it has been manipulated to the upside? What do the think the futures market (as used currently) and ETF's are for?

supply up, price down.

[Naam]

We all know the price of gold is manipulated. It has gone from $300 to $1800 over the last decade, so I guess they have not been doing a great job. Eventually there will come a point where the demand for ownership in the physical form will collapse the paper gold fraud.

How come no one ever considers the possibility that it has been manipulated to the upside? What do the think the futures market (as used currently) and ETF's are for?

i wouldn't call it "manipulation" but it is obvious and logical that trading in non-physical form of any commodity (in all cases a high multiple of physical trading) is actually determining price of the commodity and cause rather big swings. only goldbugs who wear blinkers will deny the fact that "paper trading" could cause, in the blink of an eye, the price of any commodity, including gold, to any value "up" or "down". history proves my claim.

in my [not so] humble opinion there is no way that demand for physical ownership will collapse the paper gold price. simple reason is that the big speculators are not interested to hold physical. the only thing they are interested is to trade and use swings to generate profits. they can't do that with physical holdings.

[flying]

Gold Still Looks Good; Japan Still Doesn't

Gold = 1 / T,

where T stands for the Trust that people have in the fiat Monetary System and the financial complex running it. Jim Grant points the finger at the central bankers, but they are merely creatures, albeit powerful actors, in a system of privilege and legalized looting.

In other words, the price of gold will run higher in response to the opacity, crony capitalism, insider dealing, abuses of power, and arbitrary valuations in the financial system and the overall system of governance.

Gold, and to a growing extent silver, are the safe havens for the world. This flight to safety is the fundamental driver of the precious metals bull market.

And I think that the ownership of gold and silver is still highly selective, based often on culture, financial sophistication, or a general predisposition against trust in monolithic organizations.

As a recognition of what is happening penetrates more deeply into the public consciousness, the spike in the price of precious metals may be much more impressive.

Is this weakening of confidence justified? One must ask themselves, how deeply has the corruption in the system been reformed?

Has transparency been restored, and the confidence of the members of the system been regained by things other than public relation campaigns, forced choices, subtle coercion, market manipulation, and even blatant propaganda?

These crony capitalists are so inward looking and corrupt that their policy response is to continue the looting and intensify the deception until confidence in the system is restored.

There is plenty of free choice to be had in this brave new world, from 401k's to the election ballot, as long as one chooses from what they give you.

That is the answer, the fundamental driver of the valuation.

"A bubble is a bull market in which the user of the word "bubble" has not fully participated. You can think of gold as a stock that went from 2⅝ to 18 in a dozen years. I'm not sure that's a bubble. It is the nature of gold that its valuation must forever be a mystery. It earns nothing. It pays no dividend. No conference call, no management to call up and complain to.

What I do think is gold is simply the reciprocal of the world's faith in the institution of managed currencies. It is one divided by T, where T stands for trust. And trust is a shrinking number and will continue to shrink. Therefore, I am still bullish on gold.

If a bubble connotes absurdity, what is absurd are the monetary conditions that supported this gold bull market. Gold is an expression of the world's justifiable distrust of the way our central bankers conduct their affairs. The poetry of it is that it can't be quantified. The central banks are unworthy opponents. The Fed has pledged 0% money-market rates for the next two years, so that's not much competition. And the governments of the world are taking under advisement this notion called financial repression—short-circuiting market mechanisms, capital controls, punitive taxes or intrusive taxes and the like."

Jim Grant: Gold Still Looks Good, Japan Still Doesn't - Barron's

[fredob43]

I wonder how Icelanders who have gold are doing these days? A lot better than most I imagine....

Exactly.

Seeing the woods from the trees comes to mind. Acting on very short term fluctuations in a major bear market that's just started is suicide, unless you're shorting. A quietish week and everyone turns into a buyer, quite funny if it wasn't so shortsighted. The last decade has made people forget that we are not supermen, that can wriggle our way out of disaster in a few short weeks. Everybody is straining at the leash to lose their money..... since the first day of the crash.

My three pence worth. I think Gold will go to some ware around $1,650 on profit taking. But in the next year or so will rise to well over $2,000 might even reach $2,500. Why, the US in is big trouble as we all know owe's Trillion's. And that's only going to get worse. I also think there will be a new president. But even if that doesn't occur the Job's market there could go to 12%+ from the present 9.1%. and the $ well you tell me.

Then there's the EURO I don't have to tell anyone what's going on there. They are even more in the Doo Doo's. In a few month's time when Greece default's as sure as egg's are egg's it will do. They might call it by a different name but a default it will be. Then there's Spain Italy +++ Both Currency's EURO/$ won't be worth a dime there's only one result for monies and that's Gold. I might be wrong but I don't think we have seen the real Sh/t yet.

[Naam]

Jim Grant: Gold Still Looks Good, Japan Still Doesn't - Barron's

bullshit like this is published since exactly 21 years. of course a broken clock shows twice a day the correct time and claims are correct when referring to a specific time period.

Edited September 18, 2011 by Naam

[flying]

Jim Grant: Gold Still Looks Good, Japan Still Doesn't - Barron's

bullshit like this is published since exactly 21 years. of course a broken clock shows twice a day the correct time and claims are correct when referring to a specific time period.

Actually I rather liked it

But then again it echos what I see & hear.... that which is not changing nor getting repaired.

notice he did not make any far fetched claims about gold becoming $$$$$$/oz

It was mainly a post on what drives the metals & I would say trust us as good a reason as any.

Also not he never said gold would replace any fiat.

but did say...

What I do think is gold is simply the reciprocal of the world's faith in the institution of managed currencies

Which part is BS or that which you did not like?

Edited September 18, 2011 by flying

[Naam]

Which part is BS or that which you did not like?

the irrelevant reference "Gold/Japan". nothing wrong with the claim "Gold looks good". that Japan does not look good bothers neither you nor me and is based on Grant's personal investment decisions.

[ExpatJ]

The psychology on this board is interesting. When the price of gold is going up there are lots of posts (often hourly) and lots of good humor, everyone friends. When the price drops , far fewer posts and a lot of petty fighting between posters.

My conclusion is i am guessing a lot of people here invest only- or a large majority of their investment capital - is in gold.

As for me im balanced between gold and equities- to the extent that if gold prices shoot up i become remorseful about my falling equities - and vice versa.

[flying]

The psychology on this board is interesting. When the price of gold is going up there are lots of posts (often hourly) and lots of good humor, everyone friends. When the price drops , far fewer posts and a lot of petty fighting between posters.

My conclusion is i am guessing a lot of people here invest only- or a large majority of their investment capital - is in gold.

As for me im balanced between gold and equities- to the extent that if gold prices shoot up i become remorseful about my falling equities - and vice versa.

Speaking only for myself....

When gold is doing a rocket impression yes more posts on this thread for sure. I am never comfortable when it is acting like that as I fear irrational exuberance. Although I do not feel gold is at that point yet.

As for price drops ...well I guess we will see when it happens but I do not consider these blips price drops of any substance.

I dont know about others but I did not invest in gold.I did exchange at least 50% of my liquid assets for it in 08 though.

Gold is not an investment strategy for me. When I saw what happened in 07-08 I wanted out & this was my vehicle of choice for that which I did not need to keep in.

As for balancing between gold...( I am guessing your talking paper gold?) & equities...speaking again only for myself. I only buy what I control/hold physically. I left the markets in 2000 & pretty much knew then I would never return. What happened in 07-08 only reinforced my feeling in that area.

It is a disgusting manipulated corrupt piece of work IMHO. But....I do not expect or begrudge others to feel the same or not.

Investing IMO has long been dead & what we see now is a propped market & nothing more than a gambling casino. Folks no longer invest in a company. Instead they trade in & out daily on what ever is the daily news.I pity business that once relied on a stable stock price to chart their futures.

Edited September 19, 2011 by flying

[ExpatJ]

The psychology on this board is interesting. When the price of gold is going up there are lots of posts (often hourly) and lots of good humor, everyone friends. When the price drops , far fewer posts and a lot of petty fighting between posters.

My conclusion is i am guessing a lot of people here invest only- or a large majority of their investment capital - is in gold.

As for me im balanced between gold and equities- to the extent that if gold prices shoot up i become remorseful about my falling equities - and vice versa.

Speaking only for myself....

When gold is doing a rocket impression yes more posts on this thread for sure. I am never comfortable when it is acting like that as I fear irrational exuberance. Although I do not feel gold is at that point yet.

As for price drops ...well I guess we will see when it happens but I do not consider these blips price drops of any substance.

I dont know about others but I did not invest in gold.I did exchange at least 50% of my liquid assets for it in 08 though.

Gold is not an investment strategy for me. When I saw what happened in 07-08 I wanted out & this was my vehicle of choice for that which I did not need to keep in.

As for balancing between gold...( I am guessing your talking paper gold?) & equities...speaking again only for myself. I left the markets in 2000 & pretty much knew then I would never return. What happened in 07-08 only reinforced my feeling in that area.

It is a disgusting manipulated corrupt piece of work IMHO. But....I do not expect or begrudge others to feel the same or not.

Investing IMO has long been dead & what we see now is a propped market & nothing more than a gambling casino. Folks no longer invest in a company. Instead they trade in & out daily on what ever is the daily news.I pity business that once relied on a stable stock price to chart their futures.

Thanks for the interesting reply. I agree that equity investing really requires regular day to day , week to week trading in order to be profitable these days. Buy and hold has become very risky IMHO - i can easily imagine holding some stocks for years then just before you want to cash them out, for retirement say, there is a market crash that largely wipes out their value.

But apart from gold, do you invest in anything else?

[flying]

Thanks for the interesting reply. I agree that equity investing really requires regular day to day , week to week trading in order to be profitable these days. Buy and hold has become very risky IMHO - i can easily imagine holding some stocks for years then just before you want to cash them out, for retirement say, there is a market crash that largely wipes out their value.

But apart from gold, do you invest in anything else?

Yes the Warren Buffets are far & few between these days

As I said....

I do hold/invest only in things I physically hold. I do not invest in the markets any longer.

I have homes/condo etc...Plus I still run my contracting company.

While as I said I do not consider my metals an investment they have done very well

in dollar value. I also bought large quantities of Silver bullion when the silver/gold ratio was 77/1 back in Oct 08 I believe...

I swapped that into more gold when it was at 36-39/1 which was the equivalent of buying gold for about $400/oz usd

in my adjusted costs.

At the time of my swapping gold was roughly $1500usd/oz. If the silver/gold ratio should move back above 60/1

(which I am sure it will) It now sits at roughly 44.5/1

I will again swap a large amount back into silver again increasing my holdings/dollar value/adjusted costs over time.

To see what I wrote I guess it does sound like investing

Edited September 19, 2011 by flying

[midas]

As for price drops ...well I guess we will see when it happens but I do not consider these blips price drops of any substance.

and certainly not while you read this kind of news I mean I thought Germany was meant to be the saviour of Europe

tick tock tick tock..............

German Banks Need $175 Billion Capital

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/09/european-leaders-remain-divided.html

[Naam]

German Banks Need $175 Billion Capital

= peanuts!

[Naam]

that recent shitty news did not affect the gold price indicates that wild expectations are not justified. having said so i admit and repeat that it is nowadays prudent to hold a certain percentage of gold.

not justified is holding your breath while waiting till the gold price explodes

[Naam]

gold price in a near by country 39 million an ounce!

[Naam]

Massai parents demand bride price to be paid in gold and reject cattle trade-ins! Massai bachelors clean out shops selling prospector's utilities.

[farang000999]

We all know the price of gold is manipulated. It has gone from $300 to $1800 over the last decade, so I guess they have not been doing a great job. Eventually there will come a point where the demand for ownership in the physical form will collapse the paper gold fraud.

How come no one ever considers the possibility that it has been manipulated to the upside? What do the think the futures market (as used currently) and ETF's are for?

i wouldn't call it "manipulation" but it is obvious and logical that trading in non-physical form of any commodity (in all cases a high multiple of physical trading) is actually determining price of the commodity and cause rather big swings. only goldbugs who wear blinkers will deny the fact that "paper trading" could cause, in the blink of an eye, the price of any commodity, including gold, to any value "up" or "down". history proves my claim.

in my [not so] humble opinion there is no way that demand for physical ownership will collapse the paper gold price. simple reason is that the big speculators are not interested to hold physical. the only thing they are interested is to trade and use swings to generate profits. they can't do that with physical holdings.

it is manipulation when you have 10 ounces of gold and sell 100 ounces of gold to investors because you assume they will never take physical ownership and you will never get caught for the 100 ounces and even if you do, the contract is written to be settled in dollars - just a bailout/Fed private loan away!

[farang000999]

so what do you have the other 95% of your money in Naam?

[Naam]

Ms Merkel, Chancelerette of the Paramount Universal Tchermann über alles Republic, shouts after Berlin elektchons: "i vish vee had zome ritch und hi jielding gold mines in Tchermanny to bell out zem Greek debt tchampions. i vonder vhezzer M'sieur Sarkotzky has zome ideas to solf ze krisis?"

later she asked the vietnamese-tchermann FDP party tchief Rösler "vhat do yew sink about zese proplems? kann vee lease zome reis fields in yewr burth kountry and sell der reis at hi preises to unsuspeckting kustomers in Asien?"

[Naam]

so what do you have the other 95% of your money in Naam?

[flying]

so what do you have the other 95% of your money in Naam?

:D

[Naam]

later she asked the vietnamese-tchermann FDP party tchief Rösler "vhat do yew sink about zese proplems? kann vee lease zome reis fields in yewr burth kountry and sell der reis at hi preises to unsuspeckting kustomers in Asien?"

but then she changed her mind after some advisers told her: "ziss vill not vork out madame. zere iss thiss "Meeduss" hoo posts on Thaivisa und hoo vatches like a hawk oll der globalistik developments. vonce he finds der shlightest suspishons he vill shout "konnshpiracy!" und ekspose zem tricky plans of yewrs.

[Naam]

Tchermann FDP party boss Philipp Rösler who caused several trillion stock market losses globally a week ago demanding an "orderly default of Greece":

[midas]

German Banks Need $175 Billion Capital

= peanuts!

Ok if you want in that shape

Next!

Edited September 19, 2011 by midas

[serenitynow]

Ms Merkel, Chancelerette of the Paramount Universal Tchermann über alles Republic, shouts after Berlin elektchons: "i vish vee had zome ritch und hi jielding gold mines in Tchermanny to bell out zem Greek debt tchampions. i vonder vhezzer M'sieur Sarkotzky has zome ideas to solf ze krisis?"

later she asked the vietnamese-tchermann FDP party tchief Rösler "vhat do yew sink about zese proplems? kann vee lease zome reis fields in yewr burth kountry and sell der reis at hi preises to unsuspeckting kustomers in Asien?"

That sounds like a more enlightened policy than listening to anything Tim Geithner may have to say.

[Naam]

inspite of Asia and Europe markets bloodbath Gold weak. Churchill selling?

[churchill]

so what do you have the other 95% of your money in Naam?

along with ..http://instagr.am/p/NdG4x/

[churchill]

inspite of Asia and Europe markets bloodbath Gold weak. Churchill selling?

Not selling yet .....

I am more invested in pm stocks and will let you know when ...

CDNX at 2003 Levels Despite ‘High’ Metals Prices

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/09/cdnx-at-2003-levels-despite-high-metals-prices.html

although gold could correct .. I like Robin Griffiths who seems like a wise head ..

Robin Griffiths Report - Only a Fool Would Short Gold Here

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/9/19_Robin_Griffiths_Report_-_Only_a_Fool_Would_Short_Gold_Here.html