Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[letitbe]

again true but wages over a long period keep up with inflation although you can have fairly long periods of when rents dont keep up with inflation or if theirs a huge over supply demand and supply economics always takes over I am not claiming you cant loose on property and thats why we sold a lot of our property between 2004 -2007 but for long period its as good if not better than land and pays at least some income. In times when inflation is very high or even hyper inflation those in work do get some increase in wages and need somewhere to live. They might be forced to downsize or go downmarket as many expats here have had to do which is why we here and in USA and UK keep to low to middle mass market. It has proved in our case to be a good bet over 40 years. We got almost totally out of our USA property in 2004 and now are buying a bit back since yields have returned to a decent level. Those who look at any investment for just over short term usually loos out. You do need to have some liquidity enough for say 2-4 years of spending and we use defensive stocks such as utilities and PM for that. Even if they drop say 50% we are covered in emergency for at least 4 years. I think its much better than putting any faith in government bonds or fast depreciating currency but I would admit over shorter periods those might win out but IMO never over longer term

I have to disagree with you

What may have happened in the past may not be so relevant to what is going to happen from here on ?

Wage Drop Has Been Worst In Decades

http://www.huffingto...t_n_807241.html

history repeats and IMO anyone who relies on wages or pensions for their financial well being is definitely doomed. I know lots of people who have earned far more than me over years only to blow most of it on cars and toys with words you cant take it with you and now because they did not invest for long term in their 60's and 70's can hardly afford a pot to piss in as they say Dont worry to much about short term best investment you will never get it right just put as much as you can from a very early age into property or shares or even PM. Forget currency except for short term forget bonds and you'll be fine even if your not best investor in world and dont believe in pensions or mutual funds even government so called index linked ones. Of course its hard for a lot of people but however low your wages you can always find a little to put away. Even if your a poor Thai on 6,000 bat a month you can put away 500 baht somehow. But up to you and its probably to late for most since they left it and are now old

[cloudhopper]

I believe all of this can happen without significant wage increases in the near term. The money to support this will come from people not paying their mortgages and other debts.

In the scenario you describe then where will all the money come from to drive the gold price ever higher?

[churchill]

Quantitative easing, or when there's nowhere left to run

http://www.goldmoney.com/gold-research/quantitative-easing-or-when-theres-nowhere-left-to-run.html?gmrefcode=gata

[Naam]

IMO anyone who relies on wages or pensions for their financial well being is definitely doomed

words of wisdom!

[Naam]

I believe all of this can happen without significant wage increases in the near term. The money to support this will come from people not paying their mortgages and other debts.

In the scenario you describe then where will all the money come from to drive the gold price ever higher?

[cloudhopper]

Well the Fed can print it but even if they commandeer all the Charmin factories they are still powerless to get it into circulation. Congress does have that power however the current political situation makes that very unlikely as they know it will destroy the currency and then an even more severe depression. Although very far from inevitable it is possible though which is why I hold PM.

[letitbe]

IMO anyone who relies on wages or pensions for their financial well being is definitely doomed

words of wisdom!

wow praise indeed from mighty Naam but glad we agree on something

[Naam]

doing Churchill's job...

NEW DELHI -- India's gold demand may hit a record 1,000 tons this financial year amid growing rural incomes following another year of plentiful monsoon rains that helped the agricultural sector, but that may not necessarily mean a surge in demand during the October-December festival season as has been the case in previous years.

This signals the maturity of a market that was once largely tied to demand during specific festivals, but growing awareness about global trends have meant investors are looking more towards price signals than seasons now to make their buying decisions.

"People don't want to wait any more for the festival season. They are buying whenever prices are low, and plan to take delivery on auspicious days," said Prithviraj Kothari, president of the Bombay Bullion Association.

The daily demand for gold in the key trading hub of Mumbai has halved to 300 kilograms from three days ago after prices edged up, although the auspicious day of "Sharad Poornima" fell Tuesday, he said.

Spot gold prices in India were quoting around 27,000 rupees ($552.1)/10 grams, while international prices at 0525 GMT were $1,679.70/oz.

Mr. Kothari said the October-November festival season sales would be on par or just below last year's level of 65-70 metric tons, but total sales during the fiscal year that began April 1 should reach 1,000 tons or more because an "excellent" monsoon would boost farm incomes.

Rows of gold jewelry shops in New Delhi's Karol Bagh area were still half-empty almost a fortnight into the usually busy festival season period, though business volumes were slowly picking up.

"You never know whether prices will jump even higher. So we are buying, as we have a marriage in the family next month," said Anamika Sharma, a housewife from New Delhi, as she tried out an assortment of rings and necklaces.

Some investors were still buying although many have been spooked by a fall from highs of $1,920/oz on Sept. 6.

"Like it or not, but gold is still a safe haven," said Vinod Jain, a businessman who had come out in the middle of a work day to buy plain gold jewelry. "Plunging share markets have only strengthened my interest in gold."

More than urban consumers, rural buyers were more often walking into jeweler shops with wads of cash after a bumper crop.

"We are certainly seeing more demand from rural areas, who have disposable incomes," said Balrram Garg, managing director of PC Jeweller Private Ltd.

Jewelers have also launched prize draws offering luxury cars and television sets to woo more customers. Traders expect demand to pick up around Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights on Oct. 26, considered the most auspicious period for buying gold.

"Last-minute buying is bound to happen around Diwali, but volumes will really strengthen if prices fall to around 25,000 rupees/10 grams," said Suresh Hundia, former president of the Bombay Bullion Association.

[flying]

A long but very good speech given by Chris Powell

in London yesterday.

Chris Powell: Gold price suppression purposes and proofs

As Harvey Organ said...

Take your time reading this. It is long but well worth your reading time. If you understand this you understand the entire fraudulent banking scheme.

[letitbe]

A long but very good speech given by Chris Powell

in London yesterday.

Chris Powell: Gold price suppression purposes and proofs

As Harvey Organ said...

Take your time reading this. It is long but well worth your reading time. If you understand this you understand the entire fraudulent banking scheme.

so real question is maybe SA and west masters can repeat the suppression and get away with it for another 40 years or so or more and then gold bugs are buggered as they say maybe with help from China Russia and rest

[fritter1970]

Well the Fed can print it but even if they commandeer all the Charmin factories they are still powerless to get it into circulation. Congress does have that power however the current political situation makes that very unlikely as they know it will destroy the currency and then an even more severe depression. Although very far from inevitable it is possible though which is why I hold PM.

The Fed increasing the money supply is a no-brainer. They just buy bonds from financial institutions. Congress is irrelevant. All the Fed does is repeat the process implemented in QE1 and QE2 over and over again. I think the funniest comment I heard about this was from Marc Faber. When asked if there will be QE3 he said: "Don't you mean QE13?"

The whole point of Quantitative easing is to destroy the currency. Why? To reduce the enormous debt of the U.S. Government. In the eyes of politicians the fact that inflation reduces the standard of living for a country's citizens comes a distant second to doing whatever it takes in the short term to be re-elected.

Why will gold and silver go higher? three reasons. Inflation, inflation and inflation. Inflation creates enormous instability and it will become obvious that gold and silver are the last men standing to offer sanctuary from that mayhem.

[Kwasaki]

This is a long thread maybe it's been mentioned before and as silver has been mentioned just a slight slant off Gold what do people here think of the suggestion of Max Keiser and Stacey Herbert of buying silver as well as gold to get back at the financial terrorists as they put it..

Edited October 12, 2011 by Kwasaki

[flying]

This is a long thread maybe it's been mentioned before and as silver has been mentioned just a slight slant off Gold what do people here think of the suggestion of Max Keiser and Stacey Herbert of buying silver as well as gold to get back at the financial terrorists as they put it..

Yes some here in this thread have done quite well with Silver.

Bit harder if your in Thailand it seems.

I am in the US so have no Silver problems

[farang000999]

silver is an industrial metal despite what people on youtube proclaim.

[flying]

silver is an industrial metal despite what people on youtube proclaim.

Not sure what your post is suggesting but........

Yes most folks know Silver is an industrial metal.

It did not stop many like myself from buying loads of it at less than $10USD/oz

some rode it up to $50/oz & sold.

Or in my case buying at 77/1 gold/silver ration

then swapping it into gold at 35/1 ratio

Basically buying gold for less than $400/oz

when gold was already going for $1500/oz

Remember that since 2008 Silver had a high increase of over 400%

Gold never broke 200%

So yes Silver does not glitter like gold but there are folks who did quite well with it.

Edited October 13, 2011 by flying

[cloudhopper]

Well the Fed can print it but even if they commandeer all the Charmin factories they are still powerless to get it into circulation. Congress does have that power however the current political situation makes that very unlikely as they know it will destroy the currency and then an even more severe depression. Although very far from inevitable it is possible though which is why I hold PM.

The Fed increasing the money supply is a no-brainer. They just buy bonds from financial institutions. Congress is irrelevant. All the Fed does is repeat the process implemented in QE1 and QE2 over and over again. I think the funniest comment I heard about this was from Marc Faber. When asked if there will be QE3 he said: "Don't you mean QE13?"

The whole point of Quantitative easing is to destroy the currency. Why? To reduce the enormous debt of the U.S. Government. In the eyes of politicians the fact that inflation reduces the standard of living for a country's citizens comes a distant second to doing whatever it takes in the short term to be re-elected.

Why will gold and silver go higher? three reasons. Inflation, inflation and inflation. Inflation creates enormous instability and it will become obvious that gold and silver are the last men standing to offer sanctuary from that mayhem.

The vast majority of the inflation that has already occurred has been via granting of credit and other forms of leverage, not printing cash. Inflation will not reduce the debt of the US because most current and future obligations are indexed to inflation and the cost of imported energy. The reason for QE is entirely an attempt to reignite the inflationary granting of credit, but it won't work anymore because of a shortage of credit worthy borrowers and prospects for investment. QE...n cannot stop the deflationary burst of unrepayable debt but can delay and worsen the consequences.

[fritter1970]

Well the Fed can print it but even if they commandeer all the Charmin factories they are still powerless to get it into circulation. Congress does have that power however the current political situation makes that very unlikely as they know it will destroy the currency and then an even more severe depression. Although very far from inevitable it is possible though which is why I hold PM.

The Fed increasing the money supply is a no-brainer. They just buy bonds from financial institutions. Congress is irrelevant. All the Fed does is repeat the process implemented in QE1 and QE2 over and over again. I think the funniest comment I heard about this was from Marc Faber. When asked if there will be QE3 he said: "Don't you mean QE13?"

The whole point of Quantitative easing is to destroy the currency. Why? To reduce the enormous debt of the U.S. Government. In the eyes of politicians the fact that inflation reduces the standard of living for a country's citizens comes a distant second to doing whatever it takes in the short term to be re-elected.

Why will gold and silver go higher? three reasons. Inflation, inflation and inflation. Inflation creates enormous instability and it will become obvious that gold and silver are the last men standing to offer sanctuary from that mayhem.

The vast majority of the inflation that has already occurred has been via granting of credit and other forms of leverage, not printing cash. Inflation will not reduce the debt of the US because most current and future obligations are indexed to inflation and the cost of imported energy. The reason for QE is entirely an attempt to reignite the inflationary granting of credit, but it won't work anymore because of a shortage of credit worthy borrowers and prospects for investment. QE...n cannot stop the deflationary burst of unrepayable debt but can delay and worsen the consequences.

Cloudhopper.... you are scaring me!

You say the vast majority of inflation has occurred via granting of credit, not printing of cash. Financial institutions offering credit is the same as the printing of cash! The Fed buys bonds from banks. The banks get free money. They lend it and buy U.S. Treasuries with it. Vamoosh! More money enters circulation.

U.S. Treasuries are not indexed to inflation. That is like saying your home loan is indexed to inflation. ie. if you got a home loan in 1980 for $40,000 and only pay interest on that loan you will still owe $40,000 in 2011. This highlights the power of inflation. A home costing $40,000 in 1980 is a home that costs $400,000 is 2011. Why? Inflation!

Even if Treasuries were indexed to inflation the government would still be ahead because the official government statistics for inflation are the joke of the century. Please refer to http://www.shadowstats.com/ if you want to know what the level of inflation really is.

[cloudhopper]

Cloudhopper.... you are scaring me!

You say the vast majority of inflation has occurred via granting of credit, not printing of cash. Financial institutions offering credit is the same as the printing of cash! The Fed buys bonds from banks. The banks get free money. They lend it and buy U.S. Treasuries with it. Vamoosh! More money enters circulation.

U.S. Treasuries are not indexed to inflation. That is like saying your home loan is indexed to inflation. ie. if you got a home loan in 1980 for $40,000 and only pay interest on that loan you will still owe $40,000 in 2011. This highlights the power of inflation. A home costing $40,000 in 1980 is a home that costs $400,000 is 2011. Why? Inflation!

Even if Treasuries were indexed to inflation the government would still be ahead because the official government statistics for inflation are the joke of the century. Please refer to http://www.shadowstats.com/ if you want to know what the level of inflation really is.

Sorry it's not Halloween yet is it? Yes the banks own lots of paper but until they can make a loan it simply does not get into circulation, merely increases their reserves. Which they will need even more of as their asset values evaporate. Those 400k homes could well be going for 40k again 10 years from now.

Yes I meant the transfer payment obligations are indexed but in reality interest rates and energy costs will escalate if/as the currency devalues. Inflation is far from inevitable, and the ability of central banks to prevent a deflationary burst that sucks cash out of the economy is very questionable.

[Naam]

A home costing $40,000 in 1980 is a home that costs $400,000 is 2011

only if gold or oil was found in the backyard.

[tommyyoung]

the simple explanation is: Gold has NO intrinsic value (as the goldbugs claim). actually nothing exists which has intrinsic value if there is no demand. stranded on an uninhabitated island the demand for Gold is ZERO. on this island the art of hunting and fishing as well as the knowledge of a source with drinkable water is a zillion times superior in intrinsic values than tons of Gold

Very true. Gold cannot be eaten, cannot be used as roof to live in, has not ROI , its use in industry is limited.

Its value has been given by mankind, only because we think gold is "cool".

The excuses "it doesn' t get spoiled nor rotten in time, etc etc" are plain stupid excuses, since stainless steel also is very resistant and doesn't get rotten and has a much bigger industrial use, nevertheless its value is much lower.

The rally in price of gold , silver and other precious metals is a rally similar to what you saw already in real estate, in oil, in rice & wheat, etc...

Market, speculation.

The "fundamentals" are plain temporary excuses to fool the gullible and make them buy expensive.

It's SOOOO funny the "experts" and anal-ists are giving out free pieces of advice recommending buying gold and silver because they are "soooo undervalued" now, but they did't say those things a year or two ago when their prices were half of today's.

The same thing happened when financial gurus recommended to buy oil future at $120-$130 coz it was going to reach +$200 in a matter of month.

You know, I always follow what anal-ists say , in the way i do exactly the opposite of what they recommend ;-)

Regarding LONG term investiment , i have no shame to say -even now it's down- real estate and/or productive land is the best investment.

It has got a ROI and dam_n it, we all need a piece of land to be in this planet, even if we are in a desert island, if the desert island is a private property, we will need to pay the rent to its owner .

Regarding short term investment, well, for me gold now sucks coz it's expensive, it was damned good a couple of years ago under $1000 when nobody was recommending it !

[tommyyoung]

A home costing $40,000 in 1980 is a home that costs $400,000 is 2011

only if gold or oil was found in the backyard.

Well, in some places it might be. I bought one piece of property in Croatia in the 90s and it has been the best investment of my life so far.

And even if the price rises slighly less than the inflation, you can still have a ROI or living on it saving rent money.

I mean, it's better than gold for sure.

I am talking about long term invenstment of course

[Naam]

A home costing $40,000 in 1980 is a home that costs $400,000 is 2011

only if gold or oil was found in the backyard.

Well, in some places it might be. I bought one piece of property in Croatia in the 90s and it has been the best investment of my life so far.

And even if the price rises slighly less than the inflation, you can still have a ROI or living on it saving rent money.

I mean, it's better than gold for sure.

I am talking about long term invenstment of course

correct me if i am wrong, but i think Croatia is not located in the Greatest Nation on Earth™

[tommyyoung]

silver is an industrial metal despite what people on youtube proclaim.

So steel, brass and copper are.

But they dont worth a fraction of what silver worths.

All "precious" metals are precious because we decided that they look good or are cool.

In terms of intrinsic values they are TREMENDOUSLY overestimated, I don't mean they worth zero, but for sure the industrial use of silver doesn't justify its price of $30-40 /onze.

Maybe $5 and it's already too much ! There are rare metals , much more rare than silver which have HUGE industrial use in electronic and they are much cheaper than silver.

Why ? They are rare, yes, they are useful ,yes, but they are not.....PRECIOUS....

Think about this guys, It's not a joke. Don't put too much trust in those precious metals, it's just another market rally as they had been many before !

[Naam]

You know, I always follow what anal-ists say , in the way i do exactly the opposite of what they recommend ;-)

confess that you have been reading what i post since more than 20 years in various financial forums

but to be honest, i'd say i have been acting 75% against the advice from @nals. sometimes they are right. but then... even a blind chicken finds sometimes a grain

[tommyyoung]

You know, I always follow what anal-ists say , in the way i do exactly the opposite of what they recommend ;-)

confess that you have been reading what i post since more than 20 years in various financial forums

but to be honest, i'd say i have been acting 75% against the advice from @nals. sometimes they are right. but then... even a blind chicken finds sometimes a grain

No, I haven't. ;-) But if you haven't been fooled by these kind of bubbles and short rallies for all these years, it means you must be quite rich now...

The typical retiree at a quite early age living a comfortable life and enjoying the Land of Smile.

Am I correct or close to correct ?

PS: It's a great idea to take advantage of the market rallies too, but the biggest mistake is not being able to distinguish between a short rally and a long term investment.

The people who think they can buy gold today and live on it forever as "pension fund", I doubt they can retire young and live comfortably in the Land of Smiles. They will probably end up begging in the streets in some years.

Edited October 13, 2011 by tommyyoung

[Naam]

...if you haven't been fooled by these kind of bubbles and short rallies for all these years, it means you must be quite rich now...

The typical retiree at a quite early age living a comfortable life and enjoying the Land of Smile.

Am I correct or close to correct ?

rich is a relative expression. most Farangs are rich in the eyes of the average poor Thai citizen. the same applies to retirement. i retired at age 46 but looking back i consider it late as i could have retired six years earlier, i.e. six lost years.

correct is that i live a comfortable life in Thailand. however i do not enjoy but hate the Thai climate. i am longing for november fog, icy roads, some snow and four seasons instead of 365 days (366 days in a leap year) airconditioning but i happily forgo German income tax in exchange.

[cloudhopper]

however i do not enjoy but hate the Thai climate. i am longing for november fog, icy roads, some snow and four seasons instead of 365 days (366 days in a leap year) airconditioning but i happily forgo German income tax in exchange.

Hey you should check out Pai - the mornings are cool and foggy already and aircon not needed except Mar/Apr (when you don't want to be here at all). No ice but roads can be muddy at times. We do pay 300 baht in property taxes every year though...

[Naam]

however i do not enjoy but hate the Thai climate. i am longing for november fog, icy roads, some snow and four seasons instead of 365 days (366 days in a leap year) airconditioning but i happily forgo German income tax in exchange.

Hey you should check out Pai - the mornings are cool and foggy already and aircon not needed except Mar/Apr (when you don't want to be here at all). No ice but roads can be muddy at times. We do pay 300 baht in property taxes every year though...

only rich Farangs can affford to pay these kind of taxes

[flying]

[waza]

I find it interesting that Paul Rubino discribe occupy as left wing and the tea party as ultra right wing. I am sure Jingthing does too lol.