Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[churchill]

Worth a listen ...

Kyle Bass Un-Edited: "Buying Gold Is Just Buying A Put Against The Idiocy Of The Political Cycle. It's That Simple!"

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/kyle-bass-un-edited-buying-gold-just-buying-put-against-idiocy-political-cycle-its-simple

[Naam]

"Buying Gold Is Just Buying A Put Against The Idiocy Of The Political Cycle. It's That Simple!"

i fully agree. but no investor in his right mind uses all his liquid capital to write puts as a hedge against whatever. only gamblers bet all their money on a single horse or a specific number on the roulette table.

[Naam]

It’s All About Gold Now

http://usawatchdog.com/it’s-all-about-gold-now/

$44,552 !!! Wow quick i think we should sell everything NOW

bitcoins, carpets, mother in laws...... anything to buy more of the shiny metal

but what if gold reaches only $39,824?

[midas]

It’s All About Gold Now

http://usawatchdog.com/it’s-all-about-gold-now/

$44,552 !!! Wow quick i think we should sell everything NOW

bitcoins, carpets, mother in laws...... anything to buy more of the shiny metal

but what if gold reaches only $39,824?

I'm not getting emotionally attached to my bitcoins and I suggest you

don't do the same regarding your carpets for the sake of $ 4,728

[churchill]

"Buying Gold Is Just Buying A Put Against The Idiocy Of The Political Cycle. It's That Simple!"

i fully agree. but no investor in his right mind uses all his liquid capital to write puts as a hedge against whatever. only gamblers bet all their money on a single horse or a specific number on the roulette table.

I didn't see anyone recommending selling everything to buy gold / silver - As you said some time ago -' It is a form of Insurance ....'

and my view is that if/as prices rises I will gradually take profits to diversify to other assets ..

Take profits on the way up rather than the way down ..

Edited November 17, 2011 by churchill

[Naam]

I didn't see anyone recommending selling everything to buy gold / silver

somebody who believes in the fairy tale "gold $44,552" might bet the ranch on gold.

Take profits on the way up rather than the way down ..

brilliant idea!

[Naam]

It’s All About Gold Now

http://usawatchdog.com/it’s-all-about-gold-now/

$44,552 !!! Wow quick i think we should sell everything NOW

bitcoins, carpets, mother in laws...... anything to buy more of the shiny metal

but what if gold reaches only $39,824?

I'm not getting emotionally attached to my bitcoins and I suggest you

don't do the same regarding your carpets for the sake of $ 4,728

can't help it but i am emotionally attached to any of my "collectibles", no matter what kind or value.

[churchill]

I didn't see anyone recommending selling everything to buy gold / silver

somebody who believes in the fairy tale "gold $44,552" might bet the ranch on gold.

Take profits on the way up rather than the way down ..

brilliant idea!

Easier said than done - as you know Naam

[flying]

To that end I will not be surprised to see $1850 this week. Then set a low

around 3rd week of November. This is not to say it won't be a higher low than the last.

Then rally into Christmas.

Here we are mid 3rd week of November setting lows

Also GSR now above 54/1

I will be out of the country after next week so hope I get

a chance at that 60/1 before I go.

[flying]

These text to movie clips always make me smile

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIUctQ8Wy4Q

[Naam]

I didn't see anyone recommending selling everything to buy gold / silver

somebody who believes in the fairy tale "gold $44,552" might bet the ranch on gold.

Take profits on the way up rather than the way down ..

brilliant idea!

Easier said than done - as you know Naam

that depends on the perspective. a savvy investor might look at "selling at a loss" as "taking profits on the way down" because he considers avoiding a bigger loss as profit. i don't know how many times i've heard "how can i sell now? if i sell i'd realise a loss!" to find out later that the loss has increased.

my personal golden rule, which has not always but most of the times worked is "asset down 5% in 3 trading days = out!" that this rule can only applied to liquid assets goes of course without saying.

[midas]

To that end I will not be surprised to see $1850 this week. Then set a low

around 3rd week of November. This is not to say it won't be a higher low than the last.

Then rally into Christmas.

Here we are mid 3rd week of November setting lows

Also GSR now above 54/1

I will be out of the country after next week so hope I get

a chance at that 60/1 before I go.

very good flying ! are you starting a news letter soon ?

here is a quick summary of what has happened over the last 2 months

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2957/profanity-laced-tirade

Edited November 18, 2011 by midas

[flying]

very good flying ! are you starting a news letter soon ?

here is a quick summary of what has happened over the last 2 months

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2957/profanity-laced-tirade

No newsletter midas

As you know I never even suggest that anyone buy/do anything....to each their own eh?

That link was interesting & one comment sounded like my thoughts...

"When the game is rigged, it is time to fold your cards, pick up your chips and move to another game, and game is physical".

But then again I exited back in 2000 for basically the same thing & never returned.

When 2008 came I exited banks as well (US Banks)

I am only one person but I walk what I talk

I will not be a part of it.

But again to each their own.

Edited November 18, 2011 by flying

[midas]

very good flying ! are you starting a news letter soon ?

here is a quick summary of what has happened over the last 2 months

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2957/profanity-laced-tirade

No newsletter midas

As you know I never even suggest that anyone buy/do anything....to each their own eh?

That link was interesting & one comment sounded like my thoughts...

"When the game is rigged, it is time to fold your cards, pick up your chips and move to another game, and game is physical".

But then again I exited back in 2000 for basically the same thing & never returned.

When 2008 came I exited banks as well (US Banks)

I am only one person but I walk what I talk

I will not be a part of it.

But again to each their own.

Did you notice there are many interesting comments that followed?

there are so many conflicting points of view. Post number 7

which includes some graphs on gold and silver talk about

"there is ample evidence that a corrective Wave 4 advance is nearly complete, which

should be followed by a Wave 5 decline dead ahead, leading to new lows below the $1,535 September low."

in the end who knows?

Edited November 18, 2011 by midas

[flying]

Did you notice there are many interesting comments that followed?

there are so many conflicting points of view. Post number 7

which includes some graphs on gold and silver talk about

"there is ample evidence that a corrective Wave 4 advance is nearly complete, which

should be followed by a Wave 5 decline dead ahead, leading to new lows below the $1,535 September low."

in the end who knows?

Yes I saw & the one thing I like about physical is I just dont care much about the price.

I am happy to have what I have knowing it is not vaporware.

I have said many times in recent years we will see swings of $100/oz or more per day in the future.

But the long term is still intact as I use my eyes & ears to see what reality is. Not what reality is being reported

through the media prisms.

These lows that occur are good for folks that *want* to find & acquire physical while they can.

Edited November 18, 2011 by flying

[Shokdee]

in the end ...

I brainwashed myself on the BBC HardTalk.

Nice dancing lesson with a softball, "smart" cookie.

She wants to tango; "You're super rich and super smart, so tell me now; Why the hell are you so good looking?

He knows Jujitsu; "Over the airwaves, I can sense the hostility of your body moves."

She teases : "I hear you have a very big stash. Tell me, just how big is it?

He flips her on her back : "When you see an ugly face in the mirror, don't blame the mirror."

Spurned she yells, "You advised your mother to stock up on Bibles, Guns and Gold for God's sake! Would you advise me to do that, should I go out and buy a gun?"

He calmly; "It's only a male euphemism, by gold I mean buy silver."

She nun-like; " You're telling us that it's time to start praying, it's time for atonement. We have to atone for the past and then atune to the future?

He monk-like; "Capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without Hell."

She; "Capitalism is like Christianity. Well there you have it, we have Hell to pay. When fishing at his jungle retreat, Bass sees time spreading like a liquid throughout Europe and then moving to Japan, then the UK, and finishing in the United States. He feels that his order may be wrong, but that the timeframe is right. The ultimate endgame for him will play out the same - good times."

( Also praying for a better future, reading Matthew, getting down on his knees - http://fuc_klloydbla...n.blogspot.com/ )

.... the silver bears play out the paper trail - DEBT- IMF- SRD - GLD - USA - POP - SLV - BINGO

Edited November 18, 2011 by Shokdee

[Shokdee]

I brainwashed myself on RT MaxHeadroom.

Smart cookie: First headline reads: "Silver to go parabolic Chinese Space Agency announce". China Daily reports that now even the workers dream of becoming astronauts and have puts on silver. Quoting one peasant; "Silver is the mother of all puts. When it takes off I will see an astronomical number of naughts". So Max, this is how we can drive a stake through the heart of the beast. Put your money in silver.

Max: It's quid pro quo baby. The Limbo in Honolulu with Obama. Stop dancing you f'ing freaks! Look, Chinese kids are selling their internal organs, even their IPads, to buy silver bullets. They have you in their cross-hairs JP Morgan! [Points hand gun at you] Baamm. OK, with her crystal balls, that was Stacy Herbert.

Smart cookie: Thank you Max.

[churchill]

Steve Forbes: The Dollar Will Be Re-Linked To Gold

[churchill]

'Gold is on the verge of being re-incorporated into the financial system as large financial institutions boost their allocations of the asset, said Shayne McGuire, head of global research and portfolio manager at Teacher Retirement System of Texas.

"We are the first generation to hold a negligible position in gold" when compared to total global assets, McGuire said, speaking at the Commodities Week USA conference in New York.

Gold represents a tiny fraction of global financial assets today, compared with 3% in 1980 and 5% in 1968, he said.

Gold as an asset class fell out of favor with large investors like pension funds in the 1980s and '90s as strong economic growth and falling inflation stamped out the need to hold haven assets like gold, McGuire said.

Gold was "pushed out" of the financial system, McGuire said.

But this trend is due to reverse as the market environment has shifted to favor gold in the past 10 years and large institutions are likely to return to holding gold soon, although the process will be slow, he said.

Pension funds have "virtually nothing" invested in gold, he said. Most pension funds have about 3% of their assets invested in commodities as a whole, of which gold represents 5%. This means only around 0.15% of the $300 trillion managed by pension funds is in gold, he said.

The initial leg of the current gold rally was driven primarily by individual investors, "people who can decide to invest at the click of a mouse," he said.

By contrast, investment decisions at large financial institutions take much longer to make. At the Teacher Retirement System of Texas, it took about two years to decide to invest in gold, McGuire said.

It is the dramatic change in allocation strategies at large funds that will drive the next part of the gold rally, McGuire said.'

continued .. http://www.news.tradingcharts.com/futures/5/3/168507835.html

[fletchsmile]

'Gold is on the verge of being re-incorporated into the financial system as large financial institutions boost their allocations of the asset, said Shayne McGuire, head of global research and portfolio manager at Teacher Retirement System of Texas.

"We are the first generation to hold a negligible position in gold" when compared to total global assets, McGuire said, speaking at the Commodities Week USA conference in New York.

Gold represents a tiny fraction of global financial assets today, compared with 3% in 1980 and 5% in 1968, he said.

Gold as an asset class fell out of favor with large investors like pension funds in the 1980s and '90s as strong economic growth and falling inflation stamped out the need to hold haven assets like gold, McGuire said.

Gold was "pushed out" of the financial system, McGuire said.

But this trend is due to reverse as the market environment has shifted to favor gold in the past 10 years and large institutions are likely to return to holding gold soon, although the process will be slow, he said.

Pension funds have "virtually nothing" invested in gold, he said. Most pension funds have about 3% of their assets invested in commodities as a whole, of which gold represents 5%. This means only around 0.15% of the $300 trillion managed by pension funds is in gold, he said.

The initial leg of the current gold rally was driven primarily by individual investors, "people who can decide to invest at the click of a mouse," he said.

By contrast, investment decisions at large financial institutions take much longer to make. At the Teacher Retirement System of Texas, it took about two years to decide to invest in gold, McGuire said.

It is the dramatic change in allocation strategies at large funds that will drive the next part of the gold rally, McGuire said.'

continued .. http://www.news.tradingcharts.com/futures/5/3/168507835.html

Oh dear. Public sector bodies getting in on the act. Is the bubble entering its final few months.

Gold is looking tired. We got a small drop this week currently around 1720's. Still not really interesting enough to start getting back in with significant amounts. I've now my lowest holding since start of the year, and generally sold most for between 1750 to 1790.

Take a gold break for a while, and hopefully Q1 2012 looks more interesting. Maybe 1900 if lucky. That's not much upside for the wait - let's hope for a pull back first... By H2 next year we could be seeing economies picking up and things calming down... after Italy gets thru its large funding requirements in Feb onwards (for a few months), and people realise it wasn't so bad, we may well see gold falling back again.

Edited November 18, 2011 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

'Gold is on the verge of being re-incorporated into the financial system as large financial institutions boost their allocations of the asset, said Shayne McGuire, head of global research and portfolio manager at Teacher Retirement System of Texas.

"We are the first generation to hold a negligible position in gold" when compared to total global assets, McGuire said, speaking at the Commodities Week USA conference in New York.

Gold represents a tiny fraction of global financial assets today, compared with 3% in 1980 and 5% in 1968, he said.

Gold as an asset class fell out of favor with large investors like pension funds in the 1980s and '90s as strong economic growth and falling inflation stamped out the need to hold haven assets like gold, McGuire said.

Gold was "pushed out" of the financial system, McGuire said.

But this trend is due to reverse as the market environment has shifted to favor gold in the past 10 years and large institutions are likely to return to holding gold soon, although the process will be slow, he said.

Pension funds have "virtually nothing" invested in gold, he said. Most pension funds have about 3% of their assets invested in commodities as a whole, of which gold represents 5%. This means only around 0.15% of the $300 trillion managed by pension funds is in gold, he said.

The initial leg of the current gold rally was driven primarily by individual investors, "people who can decide to invest at the click of a mouse," he said.

By contrast, investment decisions at large financial institutions take much longer to make. At the Teacher Retirement System of Texas, it took about two years to decide to invest in gold, McGuire said.

It is the dramatic change in allocation strategies at large funds that will drive the next part of the gold rally, McGuire said.'

continued .. http://www.news.tradingcharts.com/futures/5/3/168507835.html

In addition to public bodies like this getting in on the act, some western central banks have been buying. They are notorious for being the worst when it comes to timing gold buys and sells. In fact history often shows doing the opposite of western central banks can be an astute move, as they're always late to the party

BTW Churchill, not much more to the article, so not sure why you didn' post it all. Bit surprised you missed probably the most important para...

He added that while some notable market participants have been sellers of gold this year, market conditions are much different from the last time gold prices peaked in the late 1970s. Star investment fund manager George Soros had said the gold market had become a "bubble" and sold his holdings of SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), a physical gold-backed exchange-traded fund, earlier this year. More recently, funds managed by gold bull John Paulson reported reducing their gold holdings

Edited November 18, 2011 by fletchsmile

[flying]

Oh dear. Public sector bodies getting in on the act. Is the bubble entering its final few months.

Gold is looking tired.

I can only assume you are again speaking about paper IOU's for gold?

But even then I always wonder when I see folks proclaim gold is in a bubble.

I do not see it that bubble at all much less a bubble entering its final phase.

People should be more worried about actual bubbles. None ever ask if the market is topped out.

Or better yet is it supported on low volume & slight of hand. Nothing more than droids doing high speed

trading to give it an appearance.

But back to gold/metals....We are in a low inflation time...crazy low interest.

The dollar is firming & yet gold sits at $1700 an ounce? Incredible Strength

Even if it sat at anything over $1000/oz I would say the same. Again..Given what the current conditions are at this time.

Now look at reality........Look at any currency & what they are doing in the way of repairs to the system.

Anyone looking can see what is ahead....Inflation? It is inevitable.

If one looks realistically they can see it is already starting. Forget the CP-Lie

Look at reality.

So to that end with gold now holding in a environment that is not bullish for gold...what does one think is on

the inevitable horizon? In an environment that is historically bullish for gold.

Of course I am as always speaking of physical holdings. The musical chairs known as paper IOU's may give what ever

appearance they deem fit for now. Also as always I am not saying those fleet of foot cannot run in & out now to that

game of musical chairs but we know how it ends. Ask those who lost in MF Global. A lot of folks who thought they were fleet of foot & smart cookies got burned.

Edited November 18, 2011 by flying

[churchill]

'Star investment fund manager George Soros had said the gold market had become a "bubble" and sold his holdings of SPDR Gold Trust (GLD),'

Actually Soros has recently increased his holdings ... http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-15/soros-increases-position-in-spdr-gold-trust-holdings.html

Will the mystery official buyer of gold please step forward? http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/18/us-gold-cenbanks-idUSTRE7AH1L620111118

Yes I think short term gold could fall but the long term trend is still up and as we all know timing golds moves is impossible - so until the long term trend changes -- I'm in .

see also - which cannot be negative ( until the trend changes ).. Going for Mutual-Fund Gold

Nov. 18, 2011

Morningstar's new mutual-fund ratings grade more than just past performance, and that's good for investors, Marketwatch Columnist Chuck Jaffe says. http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/going-for-mutual-fund-gold-2011-11-18/84F5B4F9-18C7-4E44-9817-07082593BF6A?link=MW_home_latest_news#!84F5B4F9-18C7-4E44-9817-07082593BF6A

[churchill]

and forget this

" see also - which cannot be negative ( until the trend changes ).. Going for Mutual-Fund Gold

Nov. 18, 2011

Morningstar's new mutual-fund ratings grade more than just past performance, and that's good for investors, Marketwatch Columnist Chuck Jaffe says. http://www.marketwat...17-07082593BF6A '

posted in error - I didn't listen all the way through and got the wrong end of the stick !!

[churchill]

Recent rumors of IMF and or other Europeans selling their Gold has not helped the price recently - however , as previously mentioned , Gold backed bonds seem a much better solution ...

Could gold-backed bonds be the answer to the eurozone crisis?

'A solution to the eurozone crisis is staring European leaders in the face. Remarkably, they have failed to consider gold as the asset of last resort. Eurozone member nations and the European financial stability facility (EFSF), the bailout fund, could use gold to back new bond issues.

The security of gold-backed bonds would encourage investors. Indeed, central banks purchased 4.8m ounces of gold worth $8bn (£5bn) in the third quarter. The application of gold backing would allow stricken nations such as Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland to depart from the restrictive eurozone and the accompanying depressive austerity policies, if they wished. The bonds would give them time to devalue, adjust and grow again, and also isolate the crisis from other European nations.'

continued .. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/blog/2011/nov/18/gold-backed-bonds-solve-eurozone-crisis

[Shokdee]

Flying talks his walk and walks tall.

Think of "the markets" as a unstable 2-year old boy- the markets are scared, the markets are pleased, the markets responded angrily, the markets pooped in their pants.

Market is real dumb.

The END/GAME is changing - looking at the past to see today, is not enough. It will make you sea sick if you follow the timeline - Market's next move - by focusing on any one (1) wave at a time. No dots on a screen or lines on a piece of paper, can match your actual 4d-reality, of multiple waves, now hitting you, in waves. These waves interact in REAL/TIME to create new WAVE/PATTERNS. We've entered turbulent times, any old model of a wave, can no longer apply, since it does not deal with the SHOCK/WAVE that comes from the future. To guide yourself in the choppy seas of many unseen waves you can compare two waves and watch their syncopated dance. Oil/Dollar Rice/Sugar Euro/Yen Gold/Silver.

My personal high recommendation would be follow signal/noise and gold/silver.

Saves time.

[fletchsmile]

'Star investment fund manager George Soros had said the gold market had become a "bubble" and sold his holdings of SPDR Gold Trust (GLD),'

Actually Soros has recently increased his holdings ... http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-15/soros-increases-position-in-spdr-gold-trust-holdings.html

...

I was highlighting Paulson selling as a gold bug, which was the last bit in bold... Probably the most interesting snippet in the article

That the main person in the article got it wrong as you highlight about Soros, further underscores that the person's view is rather weak at best

Edited November 19, 2011 by fletchsmile

[churchill]

What Hedge Fund Gurus Are Doing With Gold And Gold Stocks

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/153633/what-hedge-fund-gurus-are-doing-with-gold-and-gold-stocks

[churchill]

Recent rumors of IMF and or other Europeans selling their Gold has not helped the price recently - however , as previously mentioned , Gold backed bonds seem a much better solution ...

Could gold-backed bonds be the answer to the eurozone crisis?

'A solution to the eurozone crisis is staring European leaders in the face. Remarkably, they have failed to consider gold as the asset of last resort. Eurozone member nations and the European financial stability facility (EFSF), the bailout fund, could use gold to back new bond issues.

The security of gold-backed bonds would encourage investors. Indeed, central banks purchased 4.8m ounces of gold worth $8bn (£5bn) in the third quarter. The application of gold backing would allow stricken nations such as Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland to depart from the restrictive eurozone and the accompanying depressive austerity policies, if they wished. The bonds would give them time to devalue, adjust and grow again, and also isolate the crisis from other European nations.'

continued .. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/blog/2011/nov/18/gold-backed-bonds-solve-eurozone-crisis

I hadn't seen this before and it all seems in fantasy land but gold seems to being bought more and more into people's equations when trying to solve the debt crisis

Don Coxe's Fascinating Take On Why The Time For The US To "LBO" The Gold Market Has Arrived

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/don-coxes-must-read-take-why-time-us-lbo-gold-market-has-arrived

Edited November 19, 2011 by churchill

[Naam]

The application of gold backing would allow stricken nations such as Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland to depart from the restrictive eurozone and the accompanying depressive austerity policies, if they wished. The bonds would give them time to devalue, adjust and grow again, and also isolate the crisis from other European nations.

today dear children a finanusial eggsburt, who uses the Guardian's blog section, describes a miraculously simple method how the deeply indebted ClubMed PIGS could get rid of their financial problems and live again as before happy like pigs in shit.

to make it simple we focus on Greece who's central bank holds [HALLELUJA!H] 6.4 million ounces of the yellow metal worth nearly USD 11 billion, marked to market equivalent to approximately 2.5% of Greece's public debt. this gold can be used as collateral for gold backed bonds, however at the usual evaluation of 2/3 of its prevailing value.

now let's take our calculators and figure out 2/3 of $10.8 billion and we arrive at $7.25 billion avaible as collateral which is 1.67% of the total debt...

LITTLE HUMPHREY! WHAT DO YOU MEAN WE ARE DISCUSSING BULLSHIT? AS PUNISHMENT YOU WRITE DOWN 999 TIMES "I APOLOGISE FOR DISTURBING THE CLASS AND MY TEACHER EXPLAINING THE DEBT SOLUTION OF A PIG COUNTRY."