Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[churchill]

Not rising at this time and I wonder if prices are deliberately being managed lower to trigger stops - so a few can pick up rarer and rarer assets at what will be seen as bargain prices ..

Silver may outperform gold but remember why they both are rising

A look at the factors driving gold and silver supply and demand and why Warrren Buffett just misses the point as to why they are, and will remain, of great value as investments.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page103855?oid=147251&sn=Detail&pid=102055

[Naam]

A look at the factors driving gold and silver supply and demand

where do i find these factors and which direction are they driving?

[Naam]

Jeez. Indians going to the moon sounds like a bit of a long shot and one helluva an investment.

Aren't they better off investing in some action in China?

That's what the clever Indians are doing in the business that I know.

Then they can buy gold or whatever precious commodity they want.

you must be the sharpest tool in the shed...

In the business of draping chains 'round peasants necks??

I'm not sure what you're getting at....Nor why you feel the need to keep going on & on...

Lamest troll ever??

Bored of your peasants neck already??

'Apparently' China's awesome...

trolls are those who have nothing substantial to say but admit they associate with peasants and like to use the enter key to waste space.

[Naam]

Since it seems that several of the gold info sources I have posted don't pass your test I would be interested to hear what you think of GATA.

one of my real good friends is a stern GATA believer and (i think) some of the resident gold aficionados are too. what i found so far is that logical discussions with GATA followers are as impossible as discussing the Bible with a religiously hardcore Jew/Christian or discussing interpretations of the Qr'an with a staunch fundamentalist Muslim.

however, i admit that GATA presents credible and plausible conclusions but is unfortunately not able to supply hard evidence for all its assumptions. assuming that GATA's conclusions are correct this would mean that the claim "Gold possesses intrinsic value" is incorrect ("incorrect" is one of my mantras).

i'm not sure how closely you have followed the discussions in this thread and how you judge my often voiced "opposition". that's why i copy and paste hereafter one of my postings on "Gold" which is self-explanatory.

for the benefit of those TV-members who are looking for information i consider it my duty to point out flaws, incorrect facts and/or assumptions as well as wishy-washy or outright ridiculous claims.

disclaimer: i (actually "we") hold a substantial amount of physical, paper and 'mining' gold and after the 2009 mother load of investment opportunities (which are gone now) i see fair value in holding a certain percentage of gold because we are facing an uncertain future. but the afore-mentioned does not prevent that i keep on acting as 'advocatus diaboli' in this thread as a counterweight of goldbugs who float on cloud nine.

http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__4021260

[Jayman]

No reason to be long gold

Written by Adam Button

March 14, 2012 at 12:56 GMT

Gold is getting beat up once again today, down $54 to $1640. The gold bugs (like the bond bulls) have been clinging to QE3 and they are starting to throw in the towel.

At the same time, Chinese growth slowing puts a damper on retail demand. That leaves only central banks as marginal buyers but that won’t be enough to stall downward momentum.

Worries about inflation will eventually spark more buying but that is a distant blip on the horizon.

The 61.8% retracement of the Jan-March rally at $1624 is support but I expect a fall to the $1525/50 range.

[Jayman]

Looks like key uptrend line to hold is at 1600.

[Jayman]

Some central banks showing concerns about their gold holdings

First global central banks have been increasing gold reserves after many years of reducing them, now there seems to be a move towards repatriation of those reserves which are held in foreign vaults.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page103855?oid=147250&sn=Detail&pid=92730

[gogobar8]

Jeez. Indians going to the moon sounds like a bit of a long shot and one helluva an investment.

Aren't they better off investing in some action in China?

That's what the clever Indians are doing in the business that I know.

Then they can buy gold or whatever precious commodity they want.

you must be the sharpest tool in the shed...

In the business of draping chains 'round peasants necks??

I'm not sure what you're getting at....Nor why you feel the need to keep going on & on...

Lamest troll ever??

Bored of your peasants neck already??

'Apparently' China's awesome...

trolls are those who have nothing substantial to say but admit they associate with peasants and like to use the enter key to waste space.

We agree to differ I think Mr Naam.

Never bored with tgfs neck BTW.

[Naam]

M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H

Stay Long Gold

The end of February marked a period of extreme volatility

for gold. The most active gold futures closed 5.4% lower on

February 29, 2012 — the largest daily move in three years.

In our view, gold’s recent weakness is fundamentally

unfounded, given continuingly bullish fundamentals, as

investment demand remains strong and QE3 was just

icing on the cake. This sharp move lower, the second

meaningful correction in gold’s long running bull market in the

past six months, has inevitably raised questions about the

reasons for the sell-off. It has also raised concerns about

whether such a large daily move has any negative implications

for the longevity of price uptrend. Simply put, we believe that

the answer is no. The sell-off last week was likely profit taking,

and the low-interest rate environment of the next few years will

likely remain bullish for gold fundamentals.

Selling Began with Chairman Bernanke’s Testimony

with Conditions Ripe for Profit Taking

Investors pulling out of the QE3 trade. The first large sell

order, triggering the wave of gold selling on February 29,

coincided with the release of the testimony of Federal Reserve

Chairman Ben Bernanke before the House Committee on

Financial Services. In his testimony reviewing current

monetary policy, Chairman Bernanke notably failed to mention

the likelihood with which the Federal Reserve would adopt a

new round of Quantitative Easting (QE3) to confront risks to the

US growth outlook. This strongly suggests that investors who

sold on February 29 did so to cash out on a trade predicated on

the early adoption of QE3.

The impact of these sell orders was magnified by a notable

absence of buyers, in our view, around a key technical

resistance level at US$1,791/oz on that day, and by the fact

that February 29 was also the day on which bids for the second

tranche of the ECB's LTRO program were completed. These

three factors coalesced to provide a perfect opportunity for

profit taking. Profit taking is always a short-term risk and should

not be surprising, given the strong gold rally from a December

2011 low of US$1,525/oz to US$1,790/oz at the end of

February.

Why is last week’s move profit taking and not something

more fundamentally damaging to the long-term gold up

trend? We believe that many of the pillars supporting a

long-term gold uptrend remain intact, even absent another

round of QE.

1. negative real interest rates and accommodative monetary

policy;

2. recent data highlight robust investment and physical

demand, particularly in China;

3. the desire to own a hedge against financial and inflationary

risks; and

4. central banks have not been net sellers of gold during this

rally.

Negative real rates should support gold. Negative real

interest rates and accommodative monetary policy were and

remain the key drivers of investment demand. Bernanke's

testimony did nothing to remove this benefit when he reiterated

the Federal Reserve’s determination to maintain the target

range for the Federal Funds rate at 0-0.25% out to late 2014.

This statement, when originally made in January 2012, was

worth nearly US$70/oz in one day. Under these circumstances,

QE3 would have been icing on the cake for the monetary

easing trade, but not the fundamental driver of bullish investor

positioning. In other words, the increased likelihood that QE3

will not happen simply drove this particular trade out of the

market, without destroying the broad liquidity rationale behind

the gold uptrend.

Gold investment demand remains strong. Recent data

highlight continued robust investment demand. The SDR Gold

Trust holdings continue to show gains. Moreover, physical gold

demand for investment purposes remains strong in China, as

highlighted in the World Gold Council’s recent report on Gold

Demand Trends in 4Q11 (but published in February).

Besides the desire to hedge the potential inflation risks of

accommodative monetary policy, investment demand

continues to be driven by 1) continuing concerns over the tail

risk to financial assets in the Eurozone, 2) heightened

concerns over the Iran/Israel stand-off, and 3) broader

inflationary and growth concerns associated with high oil prices,

especially in China. As such, expectations of positive

year-on-year returns on gold are consistent with the historically

inverse trend between the real federal funds rate and real gold

returns shown in Exhibit 1.

A shift has occurred in official sector attitudes towards

gold as a reserve asset. It is worth reemphasizing that central

banks have not been net sellers of gold during this rally,

indicating an important and continuing shift in official sector

attitudes to gold as a reserve asset. While it is possible that this

sharp fall was associated with a central bank sale coming to

market, we have received no indication that this is the case.

Even if it subsequently is shown to have been the reason for

February’s sharp fall in prices, in our view this would not

confirm a general shift in official sector attitudes linked to

changing perceptions of the risks to monetary policy, but more

likely a one-off sale linked to a reserve portfolio adjustment.

[gogobar8]

Jesus H Christ Mr Naam. Bout time you had a conversation with Mrs Naam

[gogobar8]

Jeez. Indians going to the moon sounds like a bit of a long shot and one helluva an investment.

Aren't they better off investing in some action in China?

That's what the clever Indians are doing in the business that I know.

Then they can buy gold or whatever precious commodity they want.

you must be the sharpest tool in the shed...

In the business of draping chains 'round peasants necks??

I'm not sure what you're getting at....Nor why you feel the need to keep going on & on...

Lamest troll ever??

Bored of your peasants neck already??

'Apparently' China's awesome...

If you haven't understood what I'm getting at by now you probably never will.

ATB

[gogobar8]

'Then they can buy gold or whatever precious commodity they want.'

What about Tide ? 'It's become, apparently, a "common currency" on the black market — even earning the name "liquid gold" '

http://consumerist.c...ack-market.html

You started this tripe Mr Churchill.

Suggest You finish it.

[Naam]

Jesus H Christ Mr Naam. Bout time you had a conversation with Mrs Naam

at this time Mrs Naam is incommunicado. she refuses to have any conversation when sleeping.

[churchill]

What if ...

This could spark a massive move in gold

http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2012/Mar/14/This-could-spark-a-massive-move-in-gold

[lannarebirth]

What if ...

This could spark a massive move in gold

http://www.stockhous...ve-move-in-gold

I know you have shared your opinion that you don't care much for T/A churchill. That particular link is not a good reason to change your view. It's constructed wrong to begin with and the conclusion requires at least to "what ifs".

[Jayman]

If we break through 1600 i would expect further move down before we see new highs.

[Naam]

But if gold and silver sell off hard today...

...will set up a bullish chart pattern, which could lead to sharply higher prices by the summer...

Silver looks poised to...

If it can hold that level...

All that's needed now is...

If that happens...

the pattern projects...

There's no way of knowing for sure...

So if Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke...

If the inverse head and shoulders patterns play out...

this could be your last time to buy...

http://www.stockhous...ve-move-in-gold

[lannarebirth]

But if gold and silver sell off hard today...

...will set up a bullish chart pattern, which could lead to sharply higher prices by the summer...

Silver looks poised to...

If it can hold that level...

All that's needed now is...

If that happens...

the pattern projects...

There's no way of knowing for sure...

So if Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke...

If the inverse head and shoulders patterns play out...

this could be your last time to buy...

http://www.stockhous...ve-move-in-gold

The comments under the article in the link are particularly compelling.

[flying]

I know you have shared your opinion that you don't care much for T/A churchill. That particular link is not a good reason to change your view. It's constructed wrong to begin with and the conclusion requires at least to "what ifs".

Even with my limited T/A knowledge I thought the same when I saw it.

Ugly at best hope for the H&S there

But as always I still feel Silver has legs & will be back in gold once settled in the new land.

Sadly silver will no longer be possible for me thanks to VAT & I am not into paper

[churchill]

Well I did say " What if "

as with most charts they say given past performance either this or that could happen ..It could break up or down ...

This article was written before yesterday so it has already had part of the 'what if ' happen ..

Given .. as we know .. problems in europe and elsewhere .. I give it a greater than 50% chance to play out ...

SNB just said they would print ...

SNB vows to maintain minimum euro/Swiss forex rate

http://www.marketwat...rate-2012-03-15

Greece printing .. ??

BANK OF GREECE ‘PRINTING ITS OWN EUROS’ SAYS BELGIAN ECONOMIST

http://hat4uk.wordpr...gian-economist/

Does the Fed want higher interest rates .. NO ... What are they likely to do ..... ?? as ...

Bond Collapse Continues

http://traderdannorc...-continues.html

& so on ...

SECRET DEALS, FORECLOSURE SETTLEMENTS, STRESS TESTS, AND VAMPIRE SQUID WHISTLE-BLOWERS: YOU JUST CAN’T MAKE THIS STUFF UP

http://www.economoni...-this-stuff-up/

Edited March 15, 2012 by churchill

[Naam]

BANK OF GREECE ‘PRINTING ITS OWN EUROS’ SAYS BELGIAN ECONOMIST

backed 100% by goldpressed Latinum and the full faith and credit of the Ferengi Empire.

[churchill]

BANK OF GREECE ‘PRINTING ITS OWN EUROS’ SAYS BELGIAN ECONOMIST

backed 100% by goldpressed Latinum and the full faith and credit of the Ferengi Empire.

It's all the fault of

golliwogg's

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golliwogg

'They' should have been paying more attention to

Monoply

http://en.wikipedia..../Monopoly_(game)

Edited March 15, 2012 by churchill

[gogobar8]

Jesus H Christ Mr Naam. Bout time you had a conversation with Mrs Naam

at this time Mrs Naam is incommunicado. she refuses to have any conversation when sleeping.

Hadn't thought of that Naam. Mind you I'm probably not the sharpest tool in the box.

Presumably there is an opportunity at breakfast time to bring Mrs Naam up to date with the overnight fluctuations in the price of gold?

Personally I go to Thailand to get away from the preoccupation with wealth.

"Good Morning Darling. Hey...you know that necklace your wearing... it's worth 0.9% more today than yesterday."

"So what darling husband...I ain't selling."

[flying]

Personally I go to Thailand to get away from the preoccupation with wealth.

"Good Morning Darling. Hey...you know that necklace your wearing... it's worth 0.9% more today than yesterday."

"So what darling husband...I ain't selling."

Well you may go there to escape but there in LOS you will find more preoccupation with wealth than probably anywhere in the world

Mainly those trying to relieve you of any

Also many here might not be talking about a necklace....maybe more like this?

[Jayman]

Jesus H Christ Mr Naam. Bout time you had a conversation with Mrs Naam

at this time Mrs Naam is incommunicado. she refuses to have any conversation when sleeping.

Hadn't thought of that Naam. Mind you I'm probably not the sharpest tool in the box.

Presumably there is an opportunity at breakfast time to bring Mrs Naam up to date with the overnight fluctuations in the price of gold?

Personally I go to Thailand to get away from the preoccupation with wealth.

"Good Morning Darling. Hey...you know that necklace your wearing... it's worth 0.9% more today than yesterday."

"So what darling husband...I ain't selling."

Yeah if you are using small money to buy gold 1:1 then most daily moves in gold mean nothing to you. This thread is probably not for you. If you are buying gold futures on say 500:1 leverage then even a small $10 move in gold (1000 points) translates into a $67 position in gold making $100 profit. Yes that's right, you can make $100 profit on a $10 move in gold with only $67. Of course you can lose it just as easily.

With 500:1 leverage you can control 10 oz of gold with $67.

The charts and discussions are more aimed at those ppl that trade futures

Edited March 16, 2012 by Jayman

[Jayman]

Here is an interesting report from the gold standard institute

http://www.goldstandardinstitute.net/GSI/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/TheGoldStandard15.pdf

[Naam]

Here is an interesting report from the gold standard institute

http://www.goldstand...dStandard15.pdf

i can't resist to comment but this:

"Put under pressure by Western sanctions, Iran is being forced to trade Gold for food and other vitally needed goods. As Brussels is cooperating with Washington, Iran cannot use the Euro or the Dollar; Iran is being driven to using Gold instead… in extremis.

Iran like every other sovereign on Earth has a finite amount of Gold; so when does Iran run out of Gold? When do Iranians start to go hungry? This is an unpleasant but unavoidable question; the answer is for Iran to find a way of replacing Gold traded for food. Clearly this is the reason India is being asked to pay Gold for Iranian oil."

= RUBBISH²!

[Jayman]

Here is an interesting report from the gold standard institute

http://www.goldstand...dStandard15.pdf

i can't resist to comment but this:

"Put under pressure by Western sanctions, Iran is being forced to trade Gold for food and other vitally needed goods. As Brussels is cooperating with Washington, Iran cannot use the Euro or the Dollar; Iran is being driven to using Gold instead… in extremis.

Iran like every other sovereign on Earth has a finite amount of Gold; so when does Iran run out of Gold? When do Iranians start to go hungry? This is an unpleasant but unavoidable question; the answer is for Iran to find a way of replacing Gold traded for food. Clearly this is the reason India is being asked to pay Gold for Iranian oil."

= RUBBISH²!

Not sure what you are calling rubbish. USD have been cutoff from Iran banks due to sanctions. They are trading in multiple instruments including gold. Gold is flowing both directions.

I think you are missing the point of their argument here Naam and that's that if things were priced in terms of gold (a gold standard) then it would make trade more stable. As it is now, Oil is priced in USD (as per OPEC). There is a currency war going on as the central banks fight on who can devalue their currency the fastest. If commodities were priced in Gold then Iran could send out a ton of golds worth of oil in exchange for a ton of golds worth of say rice. No gold changes hands. It's the standard to which things are priced.

As it stands now, only the USD has it's own index. The value of every other currency on the planet is determined as it relates to the USD.

Edited March 16, 2012 by Jayman

[Jayman]

Here is an interesting report from the gold standard institute

http://www.goldstand...dStandard15.pdf

i can't resist to comment but this:

"Put under pressure by Western sanctions, Iran is being forced to trade Gold for food and other vitally needed goods. As Brussels is cooperating with Washington, Iran cannot use the Euro or the Dollar; Iran is being driven to using Gold instead… in extremis.

Iran like every other sovereign on Earth has a finite amount of Gold; so when does Iran run out of Gold? When do Iranians start to go hungry? This is an unpleasant but unavoidable question; the answer is for Iran to find a way of replacing Gold traded for food. Clearly this is the reason India is being asked to pay Gold for Iranian oil."

= RUBBISH²!

Not sure what you are calling rubbish. USD have been cutoff from Iran banks due to sanctions. They are trading in multiple instruments including gold. Gold is flowing both directions.

I think you are missing the point of their argument here Naam and that's that if things were priced in terms of gold (a gold standard) then it would make trade more stable. As it is now, Oil is priced in USD (as per OPEC). There is a currency war going on as the central banks fight on who can devalue their currency the fastest. If commodities were priced in Gold then Iran could send out a ton of golds worth of oil in exchange for a ton of golds worth of say rice. No gold changes hands. It's the standard to which things are priced.

As it stands now, only the USD has it's own index. The value of every other currency on the planet is determined as it relates to the USD.

The fact remains that the USD is the world reserve currency right now. That might change in the future but it's out of my hands.

[Naam]

Naam forced to pay in Gold for dog food

Put under pressure by dog food vendors Naam is forced to trade Gold for dog food and other needed goods for the simple reason that Naam, like other dog lovers, has only a finite amount of cash in his wallet. So when Naam runs out of cash he is forced to exchange Gold for cash which is unpleasant but unavoidable.

This sharp and undebatable conclusion is based on the assumption that Naam is as stupid as the Iranians. The Iranians are too stupid to sell their crude oil for needed goods and Naam is too stupid to go to his bank and fill up his wallet with cash.

http://www.naams_nonsense.org