churchill Posted March 14, 2012 Author Share Posted March 14, 2012 Not rising at this time and I wonder if prices are deliberately being managed lower to trigger stops - so a few can pick up rarer and rarer assets at what will be seen as bargain prices .. Silver may outperform gold but remember why they both are rising A look at the factors driving gold and silver supply and demand and why Warrren Buffett just misses the point as to why they are, and will remain, of great value as investments. http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page103855?oid=147251&sn=Detail&pid=102055 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 A look at the factors driving gold and silver supply and demand where do i find these factors and which direction are they driving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Jeez. Indians going to the moon sounds like a bit of a long shot and one helluva an investment. Aren't they better off investing in some action in China? That's what the clever Indians are doing in the business that I know. Then they can buy gold or whatever precious commodity they want. you must be the sharpest tool in the shed... In the business of draping chains 'round peasants necks?? I'm not sure what you're getting at....Nor why you feel the need to keep going on & on... Lamest troll ever?? Bored of your peasants neck already?? 'Apparently' China's awesome... trolls are those who have nothing substantial to say but admit they associate with peasants and like to use the enter key to waste space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Since it seems that several of the gold info sources I have posted don't pass your test I would be interested to hear what you think of GATA. one of my real good friends is a stern GATA believer and (i think) some of the resident gold aficionados are too. what i found so far is that logical discussions with GATA followers are as impossible as discussing the Bible with a religiously hardcore Jew/Christian or discussing interpretations of the Qr'an with a staunch fundamentalist Muslim. however, i admit that GATA presents credible and plausible conclusions but is unfortunately not able to supply hard evidence for all its assumptions. assuming that GATA's conclusions are correct this would mean that the claim "Gold possesses intrinsic value" is incorrect ("incorrect" is one of my mantras). i'm not sure how closely you have followed the discussions in this thread and how you judge my often voiced "opposition". that's why i copy and paste hereafter one of my postings on "Gold" which is self-explanatory. for the benefit of those TV-members who are looking for information i consider it my duty to point out flaws, incorrect facts and/or assumptions as well as wishy-washy or outright ridiculous claims. disclaimer: i (actually "we") hold a substantial amount of physical, paper and 'mining' gold and after the 2009 mother load of investment opportunities (which are gone now) i see fair value in holding a certain percentage of gold because we are facing an uncertain future. but the afore-mentioned does not prevent that i keep on acting as 'advocatus diaboli' in this thread as a counterweight of goldbugs who float on cloud nine. http://www.thaivisa....ost__p__4021260 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayman Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 No reason to be long gold Written by Adam Button March 14, 2012 at 12:56 GMT Gold is getting beat up once again today, down $54 to $1640. The gold bugs (like the bond bulls) have been clinging to QE3 and they are starting to throw in the towel. At the same time, Chinese growth slowing puts a damper on retail demand. That leaves only central banks as marginal buyers but that won’t be enough to stall downward momentum. Worries about inflation will eventually spark more buying but that is a distant blip on the horizon. The 61.8% retracement of the Jan-March rally at $1624 is support but I expect a fall to the $1525/50 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayman Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Looks like key uptrend line to hold is at 1600. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayman Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Some central banks showing concerns about their gold holdings First global central banks have been increasing gold reserves after many years of reducing them, now there seems to be a move towards repatriation of those reserves which are held in foreign vaults. http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page103855?oid=147250&sn=Detail&pid=92730 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gogobar8 Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Jeez. Indians going to the moon sounds like a bit of a long shot and one helluva an investment. Aren't they better off investing in some action in China? That's what the clever Indians are doing in the business that I know. Then they can buy gold or whatever precious commodity they want. you must be the sharpest tool in the shed... In the business of draping chains 'round peasants necks?? I'm not sure what you're getting at....Nor why you feel the need to keep going on & on... Lamest troll ever?? Bored of your peasants neck already?? 'Apparently' China's awesome... trolls are those who have nothing substantial to say but admit they associate with peasants and like to use the enter key to waste space. We agree to differ I think Mr Naam. Never bored with tgfs neck BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H Stay Long Gold The end of February marked a period of extreme volatility for gold. The most active gold futures closed 5.4% lower on February 29, 2012 — the largest daily move in three years. In our view, gold’s recent weakness is fundamentally unfounded, given continuingly bullish fundamentals, as investment demand remains strong and QE3 was just icing on the cake. This sharp move lower, the second meaningful correction in gold’s long running bull market in the past six months, has inevitably raised questions about the reasons for the sell-off. It has also raised concerns about whether such a large daily move has any negative implications for the longevity of price uptrend. Simply put, we believe that the answer is no. The sell-off last week was likely profit taking, and the low-interest rate environment of the next few years will likely remain bullish for gold fundamentals. Selling Began with Chairman Bernanke’s Testimony with Conditions Ripe for Profit Taking Investors pulling out of the QE3 trade. The first large sell order, triggering the wave of gold selling on February 29, coincided with the release of the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke before the House Committee on Financial Services. In his testimony reviewing current monetary policy, Chairman Bernanke notably failed to mention the likelihood with which the Federal Reserve would adopt a new round of Quantitative Easting (QE3) to confront risks to the US growth outlook. This strongly suggests that investors who sold on February 29 did so to cash out on a trade predicated on the early adoption of QE3. The impact of these sell orders was magnified by a notable absence of buyers, in our view, around a key technical resistance level at US$1,791/oz on that day, and by the fact that February 29 was also the day on which bids for the second tranche of the ECB's LTRO program were completed. These three factors coalesced to provide a perfect opportunity for profit taking. Profit taking is always a short-term risk and should not be surprising, given the strong gold rally from a December 2011 low of US$1,525/oz to US$1,790/oz at the end of February. Why is last week’s move profit taking and not something more fundamentally damaging to the long-term gold up trend? We believe that many of the pillars supporting a long-term gold uptrend remain intact, even absent another round of QE. 1. negative real interest rates and accommodative monetary policy; 2. recent data highlight robust investment and physical demand, particularly in China; 3. the desire to own a hedge against financial and inflationary risks; and 4. central banks have not been net sellers of gold during this rally. Negative real rates should support gold. Negative real interest rates and accommodative monetary policy were and remain the key drivers of investment demand. Bernanke's testimony did nothing to remove this benefit when he reiterated the Federal Reserve’s determination to maintain the target range for the Federal Funds rate at 0-0.25% out to late 2014. This statement, when originally made in January 2012, was worth nearly US$70/oz in one day. Under these circumstances, QE3 would have been icing on the cake for the monetary easing trade, but not the fundamental driver of bullish investor positioning. In other words, the increased likelihood that QE3 will not happen simply drove this particular trade out of the market, without destroying the broad liquidity rationale behind the gold uptrend. Gold investment demand remains strong. Recent data highlight continued robust investment demand. The SDR Gold Trust holdings continue to show gains. Moreover, physical gold demand for investment purposes remains strong in China, as highlighted in the World Gold Council’s recent report on Gold Demand Trends in 4Q11 (but published in February). Besides the desire to hedge the potential inflation risks of accommodative monetary policy, investment demand continues to be driven by 1) continuing concerns over the tail risk to financial assets in the Eurozone, 2) heightened concerns over the Iran/Israel stand-off, and 3) broader inflationary and growth concerns associated with high oil prices, especially in China. As such, expectations of positive year-on-year returns on gold are consistent with the historically inverse trend between the real federal funds rate and real gold returns shown in Exhibit 1. A shift has occurred in official sector attitudes towards gold as a reserve asset. It is worth reemphasizing that central banks have not been net sellers of gold during this rally, indicating an important and continuing shift in official sector attitudes to gold as a reserve asset. While it is possible that this sharp fall was associated with a central bank sale coming to market, we have received no indication that this is the case. Even if it subsequently is shown to have been the reason for February’s sharp fall in prices, in our view this would not confirm a general shift in official sector attitudes linked to changing perceptions of the risks to monetary policy, but more likely a one-off sale linked to a reserve portfolio adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gogobar8 Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Jesus H Christ Mr Naam. Bout time you had a conversation with Mrs Naam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gogobar8 Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 Jeez. Indians going to the moon sounds like a bit of a long shot and one helluva an investment. Aren't they better off investing in some action in China? That's what the clever Indians are doing in the business that I know. Then they can buy gold or whatever precious commodity they want. you must be the sharpest tool in the shed... In the business of draping chains 'round peasants necks?? I'm not sure what you're getting at....Nor why you feel the need to keep going on & on... Lamest troll ever?? Bored of your peasants neck already?? 'Apparently' China's awesome... If you haven't understood what I'm getting at by now you probably never will. ATB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gogobar8 Posted March 14, 2012 Share Posted March 14, 2012 'Then they can buy gold or whatever precious commodity they want.' What about Tide ? 'It's become, apparently, a "common currency" on the black market — even earning the name "liquid gold" ' http://consumerist.c...ack-market.html You started this tripe Mr Churchill. Suggest You finish it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Jesus H Christ Mr Naam. Bout time you had a conversation with Mrs Naam at this time Mrs Naam is incommunicado. she refuses to have any conversation when sleeping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
churchill Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 What if ... This could spark a massive move in gold http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2012/Mar/14/This-could-spark-a-massive-move-in-gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 What if ... This could spark a massive move in gold http://www.stockhous...ve-move-in-gold I know you have shared your opinion that you don't care much for T/A churchill. That particular link is not a good reason to change your view. It's constructed wrong to begin with and the conclusion requires at least to "what ifs". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayman Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 If we break through 1600 i would expect further move down before we see new highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 But if gold and silver sell off hard today... ...will set up a bullish chart pattern, which could lead to sharply higher prices by the summer... Silver looks poised to... If it can hold that level... All that's needed now is... If that happens... the pattern projects... There's no way of knowing for sure... So if Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke... If the inverse head and shoulders patterns play out... this could be your last time to buy... http://www.stockhous...ve-move-in-gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 But if gold and silver sell off hard today... ...will set up a bullish chart pattern, which could lead to sharply higher prices by the summer... Silver looks poised to... If it can hold that level... All that's needed now is... If that happens... the pattern projects... There's no way of knowing for sure... So if Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke... If the inverse head and shoulders patterns play out... this could be your last time to buy... http://www.stockhous...ve-move-in-gold The comments under the article in the link are particularly compelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 I know you have shared your opinion that you don't care much for T/A churchill. That particular link is not a good reason to change your view. It's constructed wrong to begin with and the conclusion requires at least to "what ifs". Even with my limited T/A knowledge I thought the same when I saw it. Ugly at best hope for the H&S there But as always I still feel Silver has legs & will be back in gold once settled in the new land. Sadly silver will no longer be possible for me thanks to VAT & I am not into paper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
churchill Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 (edited) Well I did say " What if " as with most charts they say given past performance either this or that could happen ..It could break up or down ... This article was written before yesterday so it has already had part of the 'what if ' happen .. Given .. as we know .. problems in europe and elsewhere .. I give it a greater than 50% chance to play out ... SNB just said they would print ... SNB vows to maintain minimum euro/Swiss forex rate http://www.marketwat...rate-2012-03-15 Greece printing .. ?? BANK OF GREECE ‘PRINTING ITS OWN EUROS’ SAYS BELGIAN ECONOMIST http://hat4uk.wordpr...gian-economist/ Does the Fed want higher interest rates .. NO ... What are they likely to do ..... ?? as ... Bond Collapse Continues http://traderdannorc...-continues.html & so on ... SECRET DEALS, FORECLOSURE SETTLEMENTS, STRESS TESTS, AND VAMPIRE SQUID WHISTLE-BLOWERS: YOU JUST CAN’T MAKE THIS STUFF UP http://www.economoni...-this-stuff-up/ Edited March 15, 2012 by churchill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 BANK OF GREECE ‘PRINTING ITS OWN EUROS’ SAYS BELGIAN ECONOMIST backed 100% by goldpressed Latinum and the full faith and credit of the Ferengi Empire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
churchill Posted March 15, 2012 Author Share Posted March 15, 2012 (edited) BANK OF GREECE ‘PRINTING ITS OWN EUROS’ SAYS BELGIAN ECONOMIST backed 100% by goldpressed Latinum and the full faith and credit of the Ferengi Empire. It's all the fault of golliwogg's http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golliwogg 'They' should have been paying more attention to Monoply http://en.wikipedia..../Monopoly_(game) Edited March 15, 2012 by churchill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gogobar8 Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Jesus H Christ Mr Naam. Bout time you had a conversation with Mrs Naam at this time Mrs Naam is incommunicado. she refuses to have any conversation when sleeping. Hadn't thought of that Naam. Mind you I'm probably not the sharpest tool in the box. Presumably there is an opportunity at breakfast time to bring Mrs Naam up to date with the overnight fluctuations in the price of gold? Personally I go to Thailand to get away from the preoccupation with wealth. "Good Morning Darling. Hey...you know that necklace your wearing... it's worth 0.9% more today than yesterday." "So what darling husband...I ain't selling." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flying Posted March 15, 2012 Share Posted March 15, 2012 Personally I go to Thailand to get away from the preoccupation with wealth. "Good Morning Darling. Hey...you know that necklace your wearing... it's worth 0.9% more today than yesterday." "So what darling husband...I ain't selling." Well you may go there to escape but there in LOS you will find more preoccupation with wealth than probably anywhere in the world Mainly those trying to relieve you of any Also many here might not be talking about a necklace....maybe more like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayman Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 (edited) Jesus H Christ Mr Naam. Bout time you had a conversation with Mrs Naam at this time Mrs Naam is incommunicado. she refuses to have any conversation when sleeping. Hadn't thought of that Naam. Mind you I'm probably not the sharpest tool in the box. Presumably there is an opportunity at breakfast time to bring Mrs Naam up to date with the overnight fluctuations in the price of gold? Personally I go to Thailand to get away from the preoccupation with wealth. "Good Morning Darling. Hey...you know that necklace your wearing... it's worth 0.9% more today than yesterday." "So what darling husband...I ain't selling." Yeah if you are using small money to buy gold 1:1 then most daily moves in gold mean nothing to you. This thread is probably not for you. If you are buying gold futures on say 500:1 leverage then even a small $10 move in gold (1000 points) translates into a $67 position in gold making $100 profit. Yes that's right, you can make $100 profit on a $10 move in gold with only $67. Of course you can lose it just as easily. With 500:1 leverage you can control 10 oz of gold with $67. The charts and discussions are more aimed at those ppl that trade futures Edited March 16, 2012 by Jayman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayman Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Here is an interesting report from the gold standard institute http://www.goldstandardinstitute.net/GSI/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/TheGoldStandard15.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Here is an interesting report from the gold standard institute http://www.goldstand...dStandard15.pdf i can't resist to comment but this: "Put under pressure by Western sanctions, Iran is being forced to trade Gold for food and other vitally needed goods. As Brussels is cooperating with Washington, Iran cannot use the Euro or the Dollar; Iran is being driven to using Gold instead… in extremis. Iran like every other sovereign on Earth has a finite amount of Gold; so when does Iran run out of Gold? When do Iranians start to go hungry? This is an unpleasant but unavoidable question; the answer is for Iran to find a way of replacing Gold traded for food. Clearly this is the reason India is being asked to pay Gold for Iranian oil." = RUBBISH²! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayman Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 (edited) Here is an interesting report from the gold standard institute http://www.goldstand...dStandard15.pdf i can't resist to comment but this: "Put under pressure by Western sanctions, Iran is being forced to trade Gold for food and other vitally needed goods. As Brussels is cooperating with Washington, Iran cannot use the Euro or the Dollar; Iran is being driven to using Gold instead… in extremis. Iran like every other sovereign on Earth has a finite amount of Gold; so when does Iran run out of Gold? When do Iranians start to go hungry? This is an unpleasant but unavoidable question; the answer is for Iran to find a way of replacing Gold traded for food. Clearly this is the reason India is being asked to pay Gold for Iranian oil." = RUBBISH²! Not sure what you are calling rubbish. USD have been cutoff from Iran banks due to sanctions. They are trading in multiple instruments including gold. Gold is flowing both directions. I think you are missing the point of their argument here Naam and that's that if things were priced in terms of gold (a gold standard) then it would make trade more stable. As it is now, Oil is priced in USD (as per OPEC). There is a currency war going on as the central banks fight on who can devalue their currency the fastest. If commodities were priced in Gold then Iran could send out a ton of golds worth of oil in exchange for a ton of golds worth of say rice. No gold changes hands. It's the standard to which things are priced. As it stands now, only the USD has it's own index. The value of every other currency on the planet is determined as it relates to the USD. Edited March 16, 2012 by Jayman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayman Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Here is an interesting report from the gold standard institute http://www.goldstand...dStandard15.pdf i can't resist to comment but this: "Put under pressure by Western sanctions, Iran is being forced to trade Gold for food and other vitally needed goods. As Brussels is cooperating with Washington, Iran cannot use the Euro or the Dollar; Iran is being driven to using Gold instead… in extremis. Iran like every other sovereign on Earth has a finite amount of Gold; so when does Iran run out of Gold? When do Iranians start to go hungry? This is an unpleasant but unavoidable question; the answer is for Iran to find a way of replacing Gold traded for food. Clearly this is the reason India is being asked to pay Gold for Iranian oil." = RUBBISH²! Not sure what you are calling rubbish. USD have been cutoff from Iran banks due to sanctions. They are trading in multiple instruments including gold. Gold is flowing both directions. I think you are missing the point of their argument here Naam and that's that if things were priced in terms of gold (a gold standard) then it would make trade more stable. As it is now, Oil is priced in USD (as per OPEC). There is a currency war going on as the central banks fight on who can devalue their currency the fastest. If commodities were priced in Gold then Iran could send out a ton of golds worth of oil in exchange for a ton of golds worth of say rice. No gold changes hands. It's the standard to which things are priced. As it stands now, only the USD has it's own index. The value of every other currency on the planet is determined as it relates to the USD. The fact remains that the USD is the world reserve currency right now. That might change in the future but it's out of my hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted March 16, 2012 Share Posted March 16, 2012 Naam forced to pay in Gold for dog food Put under pressure by dog food vendors Naam is forced to trade Gold for dog food and other needed goods for the simple reason that Naam, like other dog lovers, has only a finite amount of cash in his wallet. So when Naam runs out of cash he is forced to exchange Gold for cash which is unpleasant but unavoidable. This sharp and undebatable conclusion is based on the assumption that Naam is as stupid as the Iranians. The Iranians are too stupid to sell their crude oil for needed goods and Naam is too stupid to go to his bank and fill up his wallet with cash. http://www.naams_nonsense.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.png.3b3332cc2256ad0edbc2fe9404feeef0.png)
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now