Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

Would be interested to hear why he was arrested and what the outcome was. Krugs don't have a face value on them but in any case seems very silly to arrested over carrying gold in your bags.

I have not seen/heard what happened ultimately with this guy.

But I think a lot of places are now at a point where they like to make you prove how you obtained what your carrying.

It seems it is not their job to prove it is not yours but your job to prove it is.

messed up

a completely different situation. we were discussing "reporting a value when entering the U.S. of A." not transporting gold to Panama via Mexico and not reporting it. any result is irrelevant to our former discussion.

[Jayman]

Would be interested to hear why he was arrested and what the outcome was. Krugs don't have a face value on them but in any case seems very silly to arrested over carrying gold in your bags.

I have not seen/heard what happened ultimately with this guy.

But I think a lot of places are now at a point where they like to make you prove how you obtained what your carrying.

It seems it is not their job to prove it is not yours but your job to prove it is.

messed up

a completely different situation. we were discussing "reporting a value when entering the U.S. of A." not transporting gold to Panama via Mexico and not reporting it. any result is irrelevant to our former discussion.

I agree but I'm still interested in the outcome of someone being arrested for carrying gold.

Arnold even had a receipt for some of the coins and it appears there was no legitimate reason for them to be seized, or for him to be arrested.

note to self.. don't bring gold to mexico

Edited May 10, 2012 by Jayman

[edgarfriendly]

Below the 1585 support area, Gold could target December 19 low, at 1522.60. On the upside, resistance might be found at $1600 psychological level and $1612 (April-4 low).

It 'could' drop to previous lows or it 'could' rise to previous highs... Awesome!!

It could also remain stagnant until it moves.....

it could also stratospherically rise before plunging further...

it could also plunge/freefall before..zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

hesus christos!!!

[Jayman]

Below the 1585 support area, Gold could target December 19 low, at 1522.60. On the upside, resistance might be found at $1600 psychological level and $1612 (April-4 low).

It 'could' drop to previous lows or it 'could' rise to previous highs... Awesome!!

It could also remain stagnant until it moves.....

it could also stratospherically rise before plunging further...

it could also plunge/freefall before..zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

hesus christos!!!

If I could predict the future I wouldn't need to do any analysis nor would I bother hanging out here on TV since it would be clear to me it's a waste of time. What I have given you is both upside and downside targets based off of historical support and resistance areas.

[Jayman]

back to testing 1580 level again.

[Jayman]

http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/gold-investments-market-update/2012/05/11/

A close below $1,580/oz could see gold test support at $1,523/oz and $1,533/oz – the lows in December and September 2011 respectively.

Gold fell after shares in Asia were hit by JPMorgan's massive $2 billion loss, political turmoil in the euro zone and also by weak economic data from China. The JP Morgan loss may be higher than $2 billion and could lead to sharper sell offs in markets which could lead to further gold weakness.

However, the JP Morgan loss is gold positive as it shows how little reform there has been of Wall Street and the global financial system which continues to resemble a casino. It also shows that systemic risk remains.

Gold tracked equities lower despite the JP Morgan loss, deepening worries about Europe's debt crisis, Chinese economy concerns and their impact on global economic growth.

Safe haven gold is again showing short term correlation with risk assets, with sell offs seen across risk assets such as equities, industrial metals and oil this week. It seems likely that some more speculative players are again selling gold on the COMEX to cover losses suffered in other markets.

Gold is set to fall by more than 3% this week, the deepest drop since early March, however there are technical and fundamental factors that suggest we may be near an intermediate low.

There has been far less selling of physical bullion this week and indeed a small degree of buying the dip.

In the physical market, weaker prices led to buying from Thailand, Indonesia and also main consumer India. Reuters reports that premiums for gold bars in Singapore edged up to $1.10 to spot London prices from $1.0 quoted on Thursday.

While gold prices have had 11 consecutive years of price gains one would not know it from the lack of popular media coverage (and often unbalanced and uninformed), and lack of participation on behalf of the western public.

[flying]

Taking a bit of a beating on USD strength

temp to be sure but............

Good news is if gold hits 1550/oz USD we should

be once again approaching 32/1 THB/USD

[Naam]

Flying,

please comment on AU/AG ratio crossing 55 upwards. any specific reason you can think of?

[Jayman]

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/imf-to-buy-gold-worth-$23-billion-as-credit-risk-increases-48052-3-48053.html

IMF to buy Gold worth $2.3 billion as credit risk increases

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is planning to purchase more than $2 billion worth of gold on account of rising global risks. The IMF currently holds around 2800 tonnes of gold at various depositories

“The Fund is facing increased credit risk in light of a surge in program lending in the context of the global crisis. While the Fund has a multi-layered framework for managing credit risks, including the strength of its lending policies and its preferred creditor status, there is a need to increase the Fund’s reserves in order to help mitigate the elevated credit risks”, Bloomberg quotes a report by an IMF staff while also adding that a $2.3 billion gold purchase is in the planning.

........

[Jayman]

dbl post deleted....

Edited May 14, 2012 by Jayman

[12DrinkMore]

http://www.commodity...52-3-48053.html

IMF to buy Gold worth $2.3 billion as credit risk increases

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is planning to purchase more than $2 billion worth of gold on account of rising global risks. The IMF currently holds around 2800 tonnes of gold at various depositories

“The Fund is facing increased credit risk in light of a surge in program lending in the context of the global crisis. While the Fund has a multi-layered framework for managing credit risks, including the strength of its lending policies and its preferred creditor status, there is a need to increase the Fund’s reserves in order to help mitigate the elevated credit risks”, Bloomberg quotes a report by an IMF staff while also adding that a $2.3 billion gold purchase is in the planning.

........

And I wonder why they announce this in advance?

[Jayman]

http://www.commodity...52-3-48053.html

IMF to buy Gold worth $2.3 billion as credit risk increases

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is planning to purchase more than $2 billion worth of gold on account of rising global risks. The IMF currently holds around 2800 tonnes of gold at various depositories

“The Fund is facing increased credit risk in light of a surge in program lending in the context of the global crisis. While the Fund has a multi-layered framework for managing credit risks, including the strength of its lending policies and its preferred creditor status, there is a need to increase the Fund’s reserves in order to help mitigate the elevated credit risks”, Bloomberg quotes a report by an IMF staff while also adding that a $2.3 billion gold purchase is in the planning.

........

And I wonder why they announce this in advance?

Is also being reported by bloomberg,,

http://www.businessw...id-rising-risks

could be they want to reassure folks that they are hedged against the greece debt since greece owes more to IMF than any other country.

Also seems to me they will wait till the price drops lower to make such a large purchase.

Edited May 14, 2012 by Jayman

[givenall]

It is obvious longterm the will always go up , what is hard to own and buy so much and hold for longterm.

Posted with Thaivisa App http://apps.thaivisa.com

[flying]

Flying,

please comment on AU/AG ratio crossing 55 upwards. any specific reason you can think of?

I do not know the specific reason....But I did mention some time back according to the cyclist

Silver was done & will not get off the ground again till February next year.

He cites deflation as the cause. On April 11th he said Silver would be brought down hard 2nd half of this year

It is too bad it is not a viable option ( physical silver due to VAT ) in Thailand

because according to the cyclist $20/oz is a real possibility before that time.

Also stated....the GSR is pointing again to 60.Deflation is upon us and being masked

with a torrent of liquidity.The outcome will be worse in 2013 when the steroids are gone.

PS: as a side note he did state days ago that the general markets were headed down & the DOW

was at an important junction. He said if the DOW failed to bounce off the 12650 will initiate heavy selling,else we are going to have one more rally into 13200 to complete the three domes

I was not surprised to see the DOW do almost exactly that this morning in the US. Lets watch now

Edited May 14, 2012 by flying

[lannarebirth]

http://www.commodity...52-3-48053.html

IMF to buy Gold worth $2.3 billion as credit risk increases

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is planning to purchase more than $2 billion worth of gold on account of rising global risks. The IMF currently holds around 2800 tonnes of gold at various depositories

“The Fund is facing increased credit risk in light of a surge in program lending in the context of the global crisis. While the Fund has a multi-layered framework for managing credit risks, including the strength of its lending policies and its preferred creditor status, there is a need to increase the Fund’s reserves in order to help mitigate the elevated credit risks”, Bloomberg quotes a report by an IMF staff while also adding that a $2.3 billion gold purchase is in the planning.

........

And I wonder why they announce this in advance?

Is also being reported by bloomberg,,

http://www.businessw...id-rising-risks

could be they want to reassure folks that they are hedged against the greece debt since greece owes more to IMF than any other country.

Also seems to me they will wait till the price drops lower to make such a large purchase.

What makes Gold a hedge against Greek non-payment of debt owed? I think it's pretty obvious that most risk assets are correlated these days.

[Jayman]

http://www.commodity...52-3-48053.html

IMF to buy Gold worth $2.3 billion as credit risk increases

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is planning to purchase more than $2 billion worth of gold on account of rising global risks. The IMF currently holds around 2800 tonnes of gold at various depositories

“The Fund is facing increased credit risk in light of a surge in program lending in the context of the global crisis. While the Fund has a multi-layered framework for managing credit risks, including the strength of its lending policies and its preferred creditor status, there is a need to increase the Fund’s reserves in order to help mitigate the elevated credit risks”, Bloomberg quotes a report by an IMF staff while also adding that a $2.3 billion gold purchase is in the planning.

........

And I wonder why they announce this in advance?

Is also being reported by bloomberg,,

http://www.businessw...id-rising-risks

could be they want to reassure folks that they are hedged against the greece debt since greece owes more to IMF than any other country.

Also seems to me they will wait till the price drops lower to make such a large purchase.

What makes Gold a hedge against Greek non-payment of debt owed? I think it's pretty obvious that most risk assets are correlated these days.

Maybe these days but that won't go on forever and the IMF knows it. Take it for what it's worth. IMHO they (IMF) are part of the reason that gold prices are being suppressed and it won't surprise me that they will push it down some more and then buy a sh*t ton which will also see the end of the short term bear correction and we are back on the raging bull path.

[Jayman]

Seems Germany is getting a bit concerned where there gold is at... can you blame them?

http://www.welt.de/f...ldreserven.html

Edited May 14, 2012 by Jayman

[Naam]

http://www.commodity...52-3-48053.html

IMF to buy Gold worth $2.3 billion as credit risk increases

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is planning to purchase more than $2 billion worth of gold on account of rising global risks. The IMF currently holds around 2800 tonnes of gold at various depositories

“The Fund is facing increased credit risk in light of a surge in program lending in the context of the global crisis. While the Fund has a multi-layered framework for managing credit risks, including the strength of its lending policies and its preferred creditor status, there is a need to increase the Fund’s reserves in order to help mitigate the elevated credit risks”, Bloomberg quotes a report by an IMF staff while also adding that a $2.3 billion gold purchase is in the planning.

........

And I wonder why they announce this in advance?

the IMF did not announce anything.

Bloomberg quotes a report by an IMF staff...

...and gold loses $24/ounce.

[churchill]

http://www.commodity...52-3-48053.html

IMF to buy Gold worth $2.3 billion as credit risk increases

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is planning to purchase more than $2 billion worth of gold on account of rising global risks. The IMF currently holds around 2800 tonnes of gold at various depositories

“The Fund is facing increased credit risk in light of a surge in program lending in the context of the global crisis. While the Fund has a multi-layered framework for managing credit risks, including the strength of its lending policies and its preferred creditor status, there is a need to increase the Fund’s reserves in order to help mitigate the elevated credit risks”, Bloomberg quotes a report by an IMF staff while also adding that a $2.3 billion gold purchase is in the planning.

........

And I wonder why they announce this in advance?

the IMF did not announce anything.

Bloomberg quotes a report by an IMF staff...

...and gold loses $24/ounce.

I think the story came from here ...

IMF to Add $2.3 Billion Net Income to Reserves Amid Rising Risks

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-11/imf-to-add-2-3-billion-net-income-to-reserves-amid-rising-risks.html

which looks as if it was put in a shaker .. but http://www.commodityonline.com/news/imf-to-buy-gold-worth-$23-billion-as-credit-risk-increases-48052-3-48053.html

came out with the wrong result ..

[flying]

I think the story came from here ...

IMF to Add $2.3 Billion Net Income to Reserves Amid Rising Risks

http://www.bloomberg...sing-risks.html

which looks as if it was put in a shaker .. but http://www.commodity...52-3-48053.html

came out with the wrong result ..

When you think about it the IMF is just doing what many others (both private & governments ) around the world have done.

Just looking for some balance against risks.

[Naam]

I think the story came from here ...

IMF to Add $2.3 Billion Net Income to Reserves Amid Rising Risks

http://www.bloomberg...sing-risks.html

which looks as if it was put in a shaker .. but http://www.commodity...52-3-48053.html

came out with the wrong result ..

When you think about it the IMF is just doing what many others (both private & governments ) around the world have done.

Just looking for some balance against risks.

with $2.3bb the IMF can't balance a lot

for the record: the IMF doesn't care about risk. if loans are not paid back none of the highly paid political appointees worry. should the IMF run out of money the board aska for money from the member states. only a few years ago (before 2008) the IMF had problems because too many of the loans were paid back even before maturity and the interest of the outstanding loans was not enough to cover the IMFs running cost.

[Naam]

came out with the wrong result...

goldbugs busy twisting facts... as so often

[churchill]

I think the story came from here ...

IMF to Add $2.3 Billion Net Income to Reserves Amid Rising Risks

http://www.bloomberg...sing-risks.html

which looks as if it was put in a shaker .. but http://www.commodity...52-3-48053.html

came out with the wrong result ..

When you think about it the IMF is just doing what many others (both private & governments ) around the world have done.

Just looking for some balance against risks.

with $2.3bb the IMF can't balance a lot

for the record: the IMF doesn't care about risk. if loans are not paid back none of the highly paid political appointees worry. should the IMF run out of money the board aska for money from the member states. only a few years ago (before 2008) the IMF had problems because too many of the loans were paid back even before maturity and the interest of the outstanding loans was not enough to cover the IMFs running cost.

The IMF sold its gold to help the poor ?? Isn't that the World Bank's Job ..

So give Lagarde her P45 and transfer 2 into 1 ..

[mccw]

Going to buy a few ounces to day.

More in a couple weeks probably.

+ good wedge of cash on my hand.

Not long now till we see the reaction of the pigs people's

I would love to see figures of how much cash are being taken out of the banks

[Jayman]

Looks like they corrected the story

*** This is an updated and corrected version. The IMF hasNOTstated that it plans to buy $2.3 billion of gold as reserves. INSTEAD, the IMF has only stated that it plans to increase its reserves

http://www.commodity...52-3-48053.html

I don't write the news stories, just report them here for others to read... As you see in my original post I posted both the bloomberg link as well as the quoted one.

Forgive me if they had it wrong...

On that note.. it should be no surprise that the big commercials sell into strength (heavy shorting at the 1900 area) and buy into weakness. As the retail folks are buying at the top it's the commercials that are selling to them to book profits. As the prices drop it's the retail folks that get scared and start selling and the big commercials are more than happy to buy it up at a discount only to sell it back to you when it gets stronger.

Edited May 15, 2012 by Jayman

[churchill]

From ... http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6686b916-9381-11e1-8c6f-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fmarkets_capital-markets%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct#axzz1uw6bM3MP

'While all monetary systems are a struggle between debtors and creditors, it is usually creditor nations that establish the rules for transitions to new regimes. Such was the case in the late 1960s as France threatened to empty Fort Knox unless a new standard was imposed. Now, with dollar reserves widely dispersed in China, Japan, Brazil and other surplus nations, it is fair to assume that there will come a point where 2 per cent negative real interest rates fail to compensate for the advantages heretofore gained in buying sovereign bonds.

There is the potential for both public and private market creditors to effect a change in how credit is funded and dispersed – our global monetary system. What that will look like is a conjecture, but it is likely to be more hard money as opposed to fiat-based, or if still fiat centric, less oriented to a dollar-based reserve currency.'

[farang000999]

China will demand higher interest rates and the USA will demand the Yuan floats.

This fight... could be a good reason to own gold.

[churchill]

Seems Germany is getting a bit concerned where there gold is at... can you blame them?

http://www.welt.de/f...ldreserven.html

'The Bundesbank statement said it had complete confidence in the integrity of the central banks where the gold is held.

"From these central banks, the German Bundesbank annually gets confirmation of the gold holdings in troy ounces as a basis for its accounting," the Bundesbank’s statement said.'

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bundesbank-confirms-german-gold-held-fed-boe-and-banque-de-france

[churchill]

New Greek Elections seem on the cards ..

Euro decline ..... seems likely ..

Will investors bailing out of Europe buy USD and Gold ..

or just Gold

[Jayman]

Here is a slightly different perspective to think about

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/15/peru-mining-wgc-idUSL1E8GF0AR20120515

Gold miners need $3,000 price in five years - gold council

* Mining costs increasing steeply

* Emerging markets, central banks to drive demand

May 14 (Reuters) - Sharp increases in mining costs mean gold will need to reach $3,000 an ounce in five years for the industry to stay profitable, World Gold Council chief executive Aram Shishmanian said on Monday.

Miners currently needed a gold price of $1,300 to survive, Shishmanian said, but faced steep rises in mining costs, along with the cost of dividends and host nation taxes.

"If this continues for the next five years the gold price needs to be at least $3,000 just to stay in the business," he said. However, he was optimistic sustained demand would drive prices higher over the long term.