Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[mccw]

China could cause a few ....

Gold: The next Strategic Commodity?

http://www.commodity...17-3-51318.html

If they had 1000 tons in 09 then they should be up to 5-8-10,000 by now no problem. Encouraging citizen gold ownership as well. Hmm , points to a plan for post western collapse, when we no longer buying their stuff, or over expensive recourses; so they could announce they have 10,000 tons or whatever and backing RMBI and gold explodes; gold holding populations of east wealth suddenly huge and drives economic expansions leaving the west behind to their own fiat debt mess. Why else would they be bothered with this useless barbaric yellow shiny stuff? Why else encourage gold holding population rather than a government bond hold one like Japan?

note to mccw: "my note to Churchill applies to you too."

here's why:

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It's no good just making statements without offering any reasoning behind them. Please explain I genius one:

- "no amount of gold holdings can drive economic expansions" . Why would a larger, more valuable money supply and newly wealthy cash rich populous not create great economic expansion? One even greater than the traditional western illusory unsustainable debt based expansion; but a real cash, labour and demand based one. The factories in china could meet the new cash backed demand for products and inflation could be minimal since the wests demand for raw materials would of collapsed + the currency would be many degrees stronger than ever before. (Energy reality would catch up with them in a decade or two probably but maybe they are banking on the economic boost and extra time to power ahead with transition to green and nuclear etc technology)

Why do you believe this- "in case of a western collapse no amount of gold holdings will save export oriented China from collapsing," when presented with economic arguments listed above? Maybe you say gold supply or amount is not enough; certainly at today's prices but not if the value was inflated sufficiently. An announcement that china controls x % of total world gold and would further buy x high % of new out put annually could maintain high and stable prices once the desired level was reached.

-you say "the advice Chinese citizens received a couple of years ago to put savings into gold and silver was to reduce their gambling in shares which drove the Chinese stock market in 2009/2010 and then collapsed causing a huge number of average citizens to lose their life savings." So gold is a better save of wealth now is it? One would think a gov would prefer highly capitalised banks over lump of shiny stuff under people's beds.

[Naam]

Why do you believe this- "in case of a western collapse no amount of gold holdings will save export oriented China from collapsing," when presented with economic arguments listed above? Maybe you say gold supply or amount is not enough; certainly at today's prices but not if the value was inflated sufficiently. An announcement that china controls x % of total world gold and would further buy x high % of new out put annually could maintain high and stable prices once the desired level was reached.

in case of a western collapse the Chinese can shove whatever gold (at whatever inflated value) they have where the moon doesn't shine because a western collapse would generate unemployment and poverty not seen in China since the times of Mao. gold does not create industrial output. gold does not create exports or revenue, neither for private enterprise nor for the government.

question to myself: why do i bother with utmost baseless and silly arguments on a beautiful tuesday morning at 0400 hours sipping my second cup of coffee?

[churchill]

'question to myself: why do i bother with utmost baseless and silly arguments on a beautiful tuesday morning at 0400 hours sipping my second cup of coffee? '

Note to Naam . ' Stay in bed . more sleep less coffee "

You are slipping ... try to keep up to date ..

'Gold prices may hit $2,000 an ounce in 2013 as rising costs and production constraints hold supply in check, while demand from central banks and Chinese consumers keeps climbing, Barrick Gold Corp, the world's biggest gold producer, said on Monday.'

http://www.reuters.c...E8MCAB520121112

China keeps gold bugs smiling

http://blogs.ft.com/.../#axzz2C3gDoPNM

Edited November 13, 2012 by churchill

[mccw]

Why do you believe this- "in case of a western collapse no amount of gold holdings will save export oriented China from collapsing," when presented with economic arguments listed above? Maybe you say gold supply or amount is not enough; certainly at today's prices but not if the value was inflated sufficiently. An announcement that china controls x % of total world gold and would further buy x high % of new out put annually could maintain high and stable prices once the desired level was reached.

in case of a western collapse the Chinese can shove whatever gold (at whatever inflated value) they have where the moon doesn't shine because a western collapse would generate unemployment and poverty not seen in China since the times of Mao. gold does not create industrial output. gold does not create exports or revenue, neither for private enterprise nor for the government.

question to myself: why do i bother with utmost baseless and silly arguments on a beautiful tuesday morning at 0400 hours sipping my second cup of coffee?

Just repeating yourself without serving up any reasoning with your statements

[churchill]

today's the day .......

'Financial astrology: What can constellations tell us about gold prices? MahendraProphecy.com's Mahendra Sharma says the metal will rally on November 15, 2012.'

[midas]

The massive head and shoulders dome top reversal that has been developing on the DJIA is complete. This pattern has been evident for years and has taken a lot longer to play out than any of us thought possible. At first they jacked up stock prices to manage perceptions and create a wealth effect. That worked for a while. Then the data started to go rogue a few months ago and they responded by announcing QEndless to maintain equity levitation so Barack and Bernanke could hold onto their jobs.

.

http://chartistfrien...nation-and.html

Charts are crap ....... anyone can draw lines .. buy and demand means Breakout ....

But this shows how it has eerily been following the same crash pattern that unfolded in 1929 and 1987

http://thespiritoftr...tely-ahead.html

and now we also have another complete mixed bag gradually building up at the same time...............

is a major historical shock about to erupt at the current historical juncture? Will this shock come in the form of what I foresaw in February 1991, i.e., a third world war that begins with a chemical SCUD missile attack on Israel? Such a potential crisis certainly seems possible at the current juncture given recent news out of the Middle East of a flare-up in the Golan Heights between Syria and Israel as the insurgency in Syria seems to be spreading beyond that nation's borders:

Edited November 15, 2012 by midas

[yoshiwara]

Yes. Covering yourself in gold paint is a well-known protection against radioactive blasts

[midas]

Lawmaker asks to be paid in gold

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83767.html

[Naam]

today's the day .......

'Financial astrology: What can constellations tell us about gold prices? MahendraProphecy.com's Mahendra Sharma says the metal will rally on November 15, 2012.'

indeed

[cheeryble]

today's the day .......

'Financial astrology: What can constellations tell us about gold prices? MahendraProphecy.com's Mahendra Sharma says the metal will rally on November 15, 2012.'

indeed

Ha-ha!

The way to a fortune.

Mahendra the reverse indicator who can read your palm at the same time!

Edited November 16, 2012 by cheeryble

[churchill]

Japan's likely next PM calls on BOJ to print unlimited yen

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/wire-news/japans-likely-next-pm-callsboj-to-print-unlimited-yen_782462.html

Gold Industry Facing Mine Discovery Challenge, Barrick Says

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-13/gold-industry-facing-mine-discovery-challenge-barrick-ceo-says

[Naam]

Gold Industry Facing Mine Discovery Challenge, Barrick Says

Gold discovery rates are decreasing even as exploration spending in the industry reached a record $8 billion last year, according to Jamie Sokalsky, chief executive officer of Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s largest producer.

There were three discoveries last year, compared with 11 in 1991, and none of those can be described as “supergiant,” or holding more than 20 million ounces, Sokalsky said at a conference in Hong Kong. Breakeven costs were rising, he said today, predicting gold’s bull market shows no signs of ending.

Barrick Gold, the world's largest gold miner, not only saw third quarter earnings fall by 55% compared with a year ago - but also had to report yet another increased capital cost estimate for its massive Pascua Lama project straddling the Argentinean/Chilean border. The project cost now stands at an enormous $8-$8.5 billion, effectively $1billion more than the previous figures only re-estimated a quarter earlier, and getting on for three times the original cost estimate of only three years ago.

But Barrick's Q3 woes didn't end with Pascua Lama. Production and cost pressures impacted the company's Australian and African operations - the latter possibly about to be sold off to the Chinese - and there have been difficulties with final permitting for the Jabal Sayid copper mine in Saudi Arabia where explosives controls did not initially meet Saudi requirements, creating a delay.

ahmm... err... Gold discovery rates are decreasing... gold's bull market shows no signs of ending... that's why a mining company sells gold fields in Australia and Africa?

Barrickesian economics?

disclaimer: i have started buying gold again. posted!

[Jayman]

disclaimer: i have started buying gold again. posted!

Ohh no.. time to start selling? I thought you said you wouldn't buy till gold broke through the 1900's?

What made you change your mind? It wasn't Mrs Naam by any chance?

[churchill]

'ahmm... err... Gold discovery rates are decreasing... gold's bull market shows no signs of ending... that's why a mining company sells gold fields in Australia and Africa?

Barrickesian economics? '

Naam would of course hold on to mines that were not generating a decent profit .. rather than selling and moving on to new ventures ...

perhaps mines in quadrant 4 self generate

[mccw]

'ahmm... err... Gold discovery rates are decreasing... gold's bull market shows no signs of ending... that's why a mining company sells gold fields in Australia and Africa?

Barrickesian economics? '

Naam would of course hold on to mines that were not generating a decent profit .. rather than selling and moving on to new ventures ...

perhaps mines in quadrant 4 self generate

Barrick obviously have short termist share holders to keep happy. Chinese longer term thinking must be expecting the cost to value ratio to change dramatically or if for the gov are happy to take the ore direct at cost. Evidence to support the previous links and speculation.

[mccw]

"Investment arm of Russias second largest bank VTB Capital will start issuing bonds tied to gold price. The new instrument enters Russia just when global downturn makes gold increasingly attractive.

The new socalled gold bonds provide for 3 fixed coupons 0.1% each with the yield to maturity depending on the gold price dynamics, Vedomosti daily reports. The Gold price on November 26 the day when the placement is set to kick off will be taken as the base to calculate gold growth. Overall, the new bonds can create up to annualized 21.3% yield for investors."

-RT

[Naam]

'ahmm... err... Gold discovery rates are decreasing... gold's bull market shows no signs of ending... that's why a mining company sells gold fields in Australia and Africa?

Barrickesian economics? '

Naam would of course hold on to mines that were not generating a decent profit .. rather than selling and moving on to new ventures ...

perhaps mines in quadrant 4 self generate

knowing that the Chinese in general, especially Chinese business people, are utmost stupid it is of course a brilliant idea to sell them any crap.

evidence that the Chinese are stupid is their growing economy and the trillions of foreign reserve they hold. if they had a little more business acumen they would limp along in miniscule growth or recession like civilised nations, such as Japan or The Greatest Nation on Earth™, and boast a huge and daily increasing mountain of public debt.

[Naam]

disclaimer: i have started buying gold again. posted!

Ohh no.. time to start selling? I thought you said you wouldn't buy till gold broke through the 1900's?

What made you change your mind? It wasn't Mrs Naam by any chance?

Mrs Naam is not exactly happy with the metal's performance since $1,900/ounce and my reasons to buy gold are irrelevant for most, if not all, participants in this thread.

[cloudhopper]

disclaimer: i have started buying gold again. posted!

Ohh no.. time to start selling? I thought you said you wouldn't buy till gold broke through the 1900's?

What made you change your mind? It wasn't Mrs Naam by any chance?

Mrs Naam is not exactly happy with the metal's performance since $1,900/ounce and my reasons to buy gold are irrelevant for most, if not all, participants in this thread.

Yes in some situations the utility far exceeds its current nominal value, even when declining.

[Naam]

disclaimer: i have started buying gold again. posted!

Ohh no.. time to start selling? I thought you said you wouldn't buy till gold broke through the 1900's?

What made you change your mind? It wasn't Mrs Naam by any chance?

Mrs Naam is not exactly happy with the metal's performance since $1,900/ounce and my reasons to buy gold are irrelevant for most, if not all, participants in this thread.

Yes in some situations the utility far exceeds its current nominal value, even when declining.

and the winner is....... Cloudhopper

[midas]

Ohh no.. time to start selling? I thought you said you wouldn't buy till gold broke through the 1900's?

What made you change your mind? It wasn't Mrs Naam by any chance?

Mrs Naam is not exactly happy with the metal's performance since $1,900/ounce and my reasons to buy gold are irrelevant for most, if not all, participants in this thread.

Yes in some situations the utility far exceeds its current nominal value, even when declining.

and the winner is....... Cloudhopper

and these also ......?

Edited November 17, 2012 by midas

[Jayman]

disclaimer: i have started buying gold again. posted!

Yes in some situations the utility far exceeds its current nominal value, even when declining.

and the winner is....... Cloudhopper

Wait.. are we talking about intrinsic value here? Since we are not talking about nominal value? Or is "utility" value something different all together?

[Naam]

and these also ......?

people who walk on these kind of turkish garbage rags have no idea what "taste" means and live most probably in these kind of "homes" next to their ricefields:

Edited November 17, 2012 by Naam

[Naam]

disclaimer: i have started buying gold again. posted!

Yes in some situations the utility far exceeds its current nominal value, even when declining.

and the winner is....... Cloudhopper

Wait.. are we talking about intrinsic value here? Since we are not talking about nominal value? Or is "utility" value something different all together?

nobody talked about "utility value"! no object nor commodity possesses intrinsic value if prevailing circumstances do not warrant that value. a starving man puts intrinsic value on a bowl of sticky rice without spices. a man who is belching and farting because he just finished half a charcoal grilled piglet stuffed with prawns will consider that bowl of rice not only worthless but "yuckish".

[Jayman]

Naam

disclaimer: i have started buying gold again. posted!

Yes in some situations the utility far exceeds its current nominal value, even when declining.

and the winner is....... Cloudhopper

Wait.. are we talking about intrinsic value here? Since we are not talking about nominal value? Or is "utility" value something different all together?

nobody talked about "utility value"! no object nor commodity possesses intrinsic value if prevailing circumstances do not warrant that value. a starving man puts intrinsic value on a bowl of sticky rice without spices. a man who is belching and farting because he just finished half a charcoal grilled piglet stuffed with prawns will consider that bowl of rice not only worthless but "yuckish".

Oh.. so the idea is that it's not just gold that has no "intrinsic value", NO object/commodity has "intrinsic value". Intrinsic value is just some made up concept..probably by those dastardly gold bugs. Hmm.. does RAID work on gold bugs too? Seems to be an infestation in this thread.

Or perhaps the gold bug is spreading.. now Naam has it.

[Naam]

Oh.. so the idea is that it's not just gold that has no "intrinsic value", NO object/commodity has "intrinsic value". Intrinsic value is just some made up concept..probably by those dastardly gold bugs. Hmm.. does RAID work on gold bugs too? Seems to be an infestation in this thread.

Or perhaps the gold bug is spreading.. now Naam has it.

anybody who claims that anything possesses intrinsic value under any given circumstances lacks basic logical thinking. people who lack that abilility will never succeed in life beyond some mediocre existence spiced by hopes, wishful thinking and phantasies (aka wet dreams)

Naam gold bug?

Naam posted 2010-11-14 - "for the benefit of those TV-members who are looking for information i consider it my duty to point out flaws, incorrect facts and/or assumptions as well as wishy-washy or outright ridiculous claims.

disclaimer: i (actually "we") hold a substantial amount of physical, paper and 'mining' gold and after the 2009 mother load of investment opportunities (which are gone now) i see fair value in holding a certain percentage of gold because we are facing an uncertain future. but the afore-mentioned does not prevent that i keep on acting as 'advocatus diaboli' in this thread as a counterweight of goldbugs who float on cloud nine."

http://www.thaivisa....60#entry4021260

friendly reminder:

disclaimer update: presently we hold neither paper nor mining gold, physical only.

http://www.thaivisa....25#entry4858141

[mccw]

Oh.. so the idea is that it's not just gold that has no "intrinsic value", NO object/commodity has "intrinsic value". Intrinsic value is just some made up concept..probably by those dastardly gold bugs. Hmm.. does RAID work on gold bugs too? Seems to be an infestation in this thread.

Or perhaps the gold bug is spreading.. now Naam has it.

anybody who claims that anything possesses intrinsic value under any given circumstances lacks basic logical thinking. people who lack that abilility will never succeed in life beyond some mediocre existence spiced by hopes, wishful thinking and phantasies (aka wet dreams)

Naam gold bug?

Naam posted 2010-11-14 - "for the benefit of those TV-members who are looking for information i consider it my duty to point out flaws, incorrect facts and/or assumptions as well as wishy-washy or outright ridiculous claims.

disclaimer: i (actually "we") hold a substantial amount of physical, paper and 'mining' gold and after the 2009 mother load of investment opportunities (which are gone now) i see fair value in holding a certain percentage of gold because we are facing an uncertain future. but the afore-mentioned does not prevent that i keep on acting as 'advocatus diaboli' in this thread as a counterweight of goldbugs who float on cloud nine."

http://www.thaivisa....60#entry4021260

friendly reminder:

disclaimer update: presently we hold neither paper nor mining gold, physical only.

http://www.thaivisa....25#entry4858141

In your example- if that was the fat mans last food for 3days and the bowl of rice is still there then its intrinsitic value /utility as food will become irresistible to him.

In the same way as the fat man your argument is blinded by the glut of fiat paper currency but if that crashes down then the utility /intrinsic value of gold as money will be obvious and just as irresistible.

[Naam]

In your example- if that was the fat mans last food for 3days and the bowl of rice is still there then its intrinsitic value /utility as food will become irresistible to him.

In the same way as the fat man your argument is blinded by the glut of fiat paper currency but if that crashes down then the utility /intrinsic value of gold as money will be obvious and just as irresistible.

fiat paper currency buys gold. if gold crashes (as it did before) fiat paper currency buys more gold. if fiat currency is not used to buy gold (or whatever things one needs) it is used to create more fiat paper currency which will buy more gold. the big crash of fiat currency prophesied by goldbugs wearing blinkers has not happened.

if you believe that fiat currency will crash why are you owning property which only yields fiat currency when rented out? or will you ask your tenants to pay their rent with nuggets? if yes, how will they buy the nuggets except with fiat currency? isn't it reasonable to assume that not many of your tenants, in fact none, receive their wages and salaries in gold?

[mccw]

"

fiat paper currency buys gold. if gold crashes (as it did before) fiat paper currency buys more gold. if fiat currency is not used to buy gold (or whatever things one needs) it is used to create more fiat paper currency which will buy more gold. "

- I don't deny this - it doesn't change the fact of golds utility/ intrinsic value though.

Gold may crash but never to zero. Paper can become totally worthless.

"the big crash of fiat currency prophesied by goldbugs wearing blinkers has not happened."

- better to be a year early than a day late! (Martenson)

"if you believe that fiat currency will crash why are you owning property which only yields fiat currency when rented out? or will you ask your tenants to pay their rent with nuggets? if yes, how will they buy the nuggets except with fiat currency? isn't it reasonable to assume that not many of your tenants, in fact none, receive their wages and salaries in gold?"

- If it did crash I don't expect any would be able to pay the rent. But a small amount of my gold could pay off the fiat mortgages so no biggy. A new currency system would come in to force after a period of turmoil wich I will have preserved some wealth in to. Ie gold and property , the latter can then become productive again.

Obviously I don't know if currencies will collapse or not so property is an income producing asses which is asset should maintain value in a new system also; gold is the hedge to fiat mortgage. Bonds , shares and cash is not at all safe in my opinion.

I value fiat paper as a means of exchange but see serious risks in the system and is why I position how I do- not because of any religious belief in anti fiat golden Demi gods or anything- purely rational analysis.

[Naam]

I value fiat paper as a means of exchange but see serious risks in the system and is why I position how I do- not because of any religious belief in anti fiat golden Demi gods or anything- purely rational analysis.

that sounds rather reasonable. but it is also reasonable to realise that most investors, especially the well-off ones, can't convert all their assets into bricks, mortar and concrete as well as into bricks of gold.