Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[mania]

the threads about 'where is gold going' how can you not think about it? you only buy? never, ever sell?

Yes it is about where is gold going but also why it is going

Some people buy gold as a insurance against a certain percentage/hedge of their depreciating liquid wealth, other currencies etc.

Some people buy as an investment thinking prices will rise

If the former ( Insurance based reasoning ) they buy until they feel adequately insured probably stopping buying at a certain percentage of their liquid assets.

To ask if they never sell is like asking if you ever sell any of your other insurance policies.

If a person at some point feels the insurance is no longer needed they could sell then.

But I think you need to differentiate between the two types

Edited January 6, 2013 by mania

[binjalin]

the threads about 'where is gold going' how can you not think about it? you only buy? never, ever sell?

Yes it is about where is gold going but also why it is going

Some people buy gold as a insurance against a certain percentage/hedge of their depreciating liquid wealth, other currencies etc.

Some people buy as an investment thinking prices will rise

If the former ( Insurance based reasoning ) they buy until they feel adequately insured probably stopping buying at a certain percentage of their liquid assets.

To ask if they never sell is like asking if you ever sell any of your other insurance policies.

If a person at some point feels the insurance is no longer needed they could sell then.

But I think you need to differentiate between the two types

fair enough but to say 'I don't think about the price' is absurd - this would be the case if it hit 2000 or 1000? 'i don't think about the price'?

[mania]

fair enough but to say 'I don't think about the price' is absurd - this would be the case if it hit 2000 or 1000? 'i don't think about the price'?

Mine was just a analogy as to the possible reason you got the answer

you did from the poster you were questioning.

I am sure he will be along & answer you himself.

But again deferring to the insurance analogy as a possible reason.

Some people have life insurance policies that grow quite a bit over the years

depending on when they started buying into it.

I guess they too might question whether to cash it in at some point as you do or continue with it intact.

Just depends I guess on their personal reason for buying it in the first place.

If the reason was more investment based yes price is important.

If the reason is insurance based, then risk perception is what matters not price.

Edited January 6, 2013 by mania

[yoshiwara]

Today i sold 70% of my physical gold. To be honest I feel some what exposed.

Leaving UK in a couple of weeks and will rebuy after we've moved back to Thailand and a house sale has gone through. So I hope you guys predicting a big drop are right! I own gold as a reserve currency / insurance policy rather than a speculative investment but still be nice to get it back in at a nice low/ more from the same money- actually I will most likely increase the size anyway when I rebuy even if same price as now or even greater. The reasons to own it are the same and the big "event" risk factors are still there - In fact the picture is looking some what worse than previously. I think this is almost certainly the calm before the storm.

I'm thinking about what % cash £/ Bht /gold ratio to keep after the move. Thinking 5%, 25% , 70%.

Opinions?

Total wealth = roughly 60% rental property, 20% non income producing property, 20% liquid (cash and PMs).

How about you guys?

I'm pondering my first small punt on shares; to be PM miners held through the self investment ISA, but I don't really like to have the Barclays holding my certificates. Any way to eliminate the risk of holding through a company / platform? Since ill no longer be UK resident the ISA part no longer matters

Some interesting questions. My ratio not dissimilar.

Six years ago I dropped Barclays after many many years as a customer and transferred to HSBC.

Life will be a lot lot easier if you hold liquid assets on a banking platform and you can trade online.

You might put some baht cash into the TMB no fixed period 2.5% account.

I wouldn't be messing around with miners right now.

[binjalin]

Today i sold 70% of my physical gold. To be honest I feel some what exposed.

Leaving UK in a couple of weeks and will rebuy after we've moved back to Thailand and a house sale has gone through. So I hope you guys predicting a big drop are right! I own gold as a reserve currency / insurance policy rather than a speculative investment but still be nice to get it back in at a nice low/ more from the same money- actually I will most likely increase the size anyway when I rebuy even if same price as now or even greater. The reasons to own it are the same and the big "event" risk factors are still there - In fact the picture is looking some what worse than previously. I think this is almost certainly the calm before the storm.

I'm thinking about what % cash £/ Bht /gold ratio to keep after the move. Thinking 5%, 25% , 70%.

Opinions?

Total wealth = roughly 60% rental property, 20% non income producing property, 20% liquid (cash and PMs).

How about you guys?

I'm pondering my first small punt on shares; to be PM miners held through the self investment ISA, but I don't really like to have the Barclays holding my certificates. Any way to eliminate the risk of holding through a company / platform? Since ill no longer be UK resident the ISA part no longer matters

about the same - 90% rentals - 10% pensions and cash - selling two condos here and will watch Au price to buy back in and get at least 5% in PM but no greater - rentals will always put food on the table as, even if rents fall, people always need to live somewhere!!! (talking Thailand here not UK)

[mania]

You might put some baht cash into the TMB no fixed period 2.5% account.

Bank Of Ayudhya Mee Tae Dai account is 2.8%

No fixed period, No taxes taken

interest calculated daily & paid at the end of each month into account

Although when you approach 20k in interest payments in a calender year

you should open another account with them to continue to avoid taxes taken out.

2 withdrawals per month free & 50 baht thereafter ( not really needed for most on account for this purpose )

100,000 - 10 Million Baht range allowed

Top of page 2 in pdf

Edited January 6, 2013 by mania

[mccw]

Thanks for the interesting replies and account suggestions.

[Naam]

the threads about 'where is gold going' how can you not think about it? you only buy? never, ever sell?

Yes it is about where is gold going but also why it is going

Some people buy gold as a insurance against a certain percentage/hedge of their depreciating liquid wealth, other currencies etc.

Some people buy as an investment thinking prices will rise

If the former ( Insurance based reasoning ) they buy until they feel adequately insured probably stopping buying at a certain percentage of their liquid assets.

To ask if they never sell is like asking if you ever sell any of your other insurance policies.

If a person at some point feels the insurance is no longer needed they could sell then.

But I think you need to differentiate between the two types

good thinking! but you are forgetting a third type who buys gold, up to a certain percentage, as an insurance/hedge against a potentially in future depreciating liquid capital. that strategy means also he has to keep on buying to maintain the set ratio because his managed liquid capital is continously appreciating.

[NeverSure]

fair enough but to say 'I don't think about the price' is absurd - this would be the case if it hit 2000 or 1000? 'i don't think about the price'?

I have never once sold a PM and no, I don't think about the price. I hold some because it is, well, a PM. Diversification for all sorts of possible scenarios some good and some bad. Will it ever pay off? How would I know? If there is a worldwide crash will it even have any liquidity since you can't eat it? How would I know? If gold goes to $200 an ounce will it buy the same things it will today at $1600+ due to massive deflation? How would I know?

It sure feels nice to look at it and heft it. How much is that worth?

I started buying silver in about 1968 when I worked in a bank. No one else was interested but every teller could recognize the pre-65 coins and would bring them to me. I exchanged on the spot for fiat money, took it home and put it in a canvas coin bag. Today I still have more than 40 pounds of those silver coins I bought that way back then. Most are common silver dollars and some were even old rolls of coins but I never found one with high collector value.

Did I make a profit? How would I know? Why didn't I instead sell it and buy IPO's for Wal Mart and Microsoft and Apple?

I don't know a dam_n thing about a dam_n thing because my crystal ball is broken. I don't know a dam_n thing about tomorrow.

Last week I put another $2000 into antique Schwinn bicycles because I like them and they've doubled in price on ebay in the past 5 years. I have one in my great room. I don't display PMs in my great room.

Wake me up when this is over and tell me how it all turned out, OK? My government is printing fiat money and spending its citizens into oblivion or so it seems and I have no control over, nor any idea where it's all going.

Zzzzz.

[NeverSure]

Oh, I forgot. Why Schwinn bikes? Well first, there are no big banksters manipulating the price. The price is set by people who actually want them. Why buy after a run up? Because some local guy had them hanging on his garage walls for almost 50 years and didn't know what they were worth. Sometimes my market is Craig's list.

I believe that all big markets including real estate are manipulated by insiders. The start a run up either by buying or talking or both. Once they get the little guys all in at the top, they dump theirs and the price drops. The little guy panics and sells at a loss or at a margin call. Now they have all of the little guys' money and can look at another market next decade.

How would I know?

[mccw]

Watered down basel:

http://bbc.co.uk/news/business-20928354

Just a comment to naam- I'm fairly sure some of those eligible assets, counted towards the capital reserves, do fluctuate plenty.

[Naam]

Watered down basel:

http://bbc.co.uk/new...siness-20928354

Just a comment to naam- I'm fairly sure some of those eligible assets, counted towards the capital reserves, do fluctuate plenty.

i don't deny that you are quite right! i'm not sure whether this version comes really into effect or (as quoted) "be phased in from 2015 and take full effect four years later". but for me this is some hard evidence what i suspected since summer of last year, namely the whole Basel rubbish is nothing but some sort of window dressing and in the background the usual suspects are pulling strings and let the puppets dance at will.

[binjalin]

fair enough but to say 'I don't think about the price' is absurd - this would be the case if it hit 2000 or 1000? 'i don't think about the price'?

I have never once sold a PM and no, I don't think about the price. I hold some because it is, well, a PM. Diversification for all sorts of possible scenarios some good and some bad. Will it ever pay off? How would I know? If there is a worldwide crash will it even have any liquidity since you can't eat it? How would I know? If gold goes to $200 an ounce will it buy the same things it will today at $1600+ due to massive deflation? How would I know?

It sure feels nice to look at it and heft it. How much is that worth?

I started buying silver in about 1968 when I worked in a bank. No one else was interested but every teller could recognize the pre-65 coins and would bring them to me. I exchanged on the spot for fiat money, took it home and put it in a canvas coin bag. Today I still have more than 40 pounds of those silver coins I bought that way back then. Most are common silver dollars and some were even old rolls of coins but I never found one with high collector value.

Did I make a profit? How would I know? Why didn't I instead sell it and buy IPO's for Wal Mart and Microsoft and Apple?

I don't know a dam_n thing about a dam_n thing because my crystal ball is broken. I don't know a dam_n thing about tomorrow.

Last week I put another $2000 into antique Schwinn bicycles because I like them and they've doubled in price on ebay in the past 5 years. I have one in my great room. I don't display PMs in my great room.

Wake me up when this is over and tell me how it all turned out, OK? My government is printing fiat money and spending its citizens into oblivion or so it seems and I have no control over, nor any idea where it's all going.

Zzzzz.

well your relatives will no doubt enjoy the fruits of your labours coz it don't sound like you will

[cheeryble]

You might put some baht cash into the TMB no fixed period 2.5% account.

Bank Of Ayudhya Mee Tae Dai account is 2.8%

No fixed period, No taxes taken

interest calculated daily & paid at the end of each month into account

Although when you approach 20k in interest payments in a calender year

you should open another account with them to continue to avoid taxes taken out.

2 withdrawals per month free & 50 baht thereafter ( not really needed for most on account for this purpose )

100,000 - 10 Million Baht range allowed

Top of page 2 in pdf

Mania thank u for pointing out the Mee Tai Dai acct at 2.8% as my job for this week is getting some cash into the best option.

However, I notice the rate doesn't come under the non-resident column.....and we are certainly non-residents.

Time to get out my make-up?

[mania]

Mania thank u for pointing out the Mee Tai Dai acct at 2.8% as my job for this week is getting some cash into the best option.

However, I notice the rate doesn't come under the non-resident column.....and we are certainly non-residents.

Time to get out my make-up?

No problem & no make-up needed

They are a nice bank with a great web interface

also they are very good about watching out for you.

Last year after a few months I was approaching 20k interest.

They told me just open another of the same type of account & transfer

so I will not be bothered by having to reclaim that tax of 15% the govt

takes on interest over 20k a year.

I would have thought it is cumulative at a bank & was surprised but happy they

were there to advise about avoiding the tax.

You have to love anyone who helps you avoid taxes right??

Don't know where you live but if in Chiang Mai

Ayudyha at Airport Plaza Mall 1st floor & ChangPuak road not far outside the moat off Changpuak gate are both very nice to deal with.

http://www.krungsri.com/en/consumer-detail.aspx?did=195&tid=2⊂=true

Edited January 7, 2013 by mania

[cheeryble]

Thankyou for that Mania

Bear with some silly questions.....

1. Is Krungsri the same as Ayudhya?

2. On the multipage PDF you provided the non resident rates didn't go that high........?

Did you do it in your own name?

[Jayman]

Thankyou for that Mania

Bear with some silly questions.....

1. Is Krungsri the same as Ayudhya?

2. On the multipage PDF you provided the non resident rates didn't go that high........?

Did you do it in your own name?

Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited owns Krungsri.

[mania]

Thankyou for that Mania

Bear with some silly questions.....

1. Is Krungsri the same as Ayudhya?

2. On the multipage PDF you provided the non resident rates didn't go that high........?

Did you do it in your own name?

No problem cheeryble

1- Yes confusing no?

Also makes it extra confusing there is another bank call Krungthai I think?

But yes it is Bank Of Ayudhya Krungsri

http://www.krungsri.com/en/index.aspx

2- Never noticed the non resident rates & am not sure they apply to

folks in country. That pdf I downloaded from their site here

http://www.krungsri.com/en/banking-rates.aspx

Also I have had those accounts almost a year now & back a month or so ago

it was actually 2.9%

Now it is 2.8% but still given the freedom of it I think it is the best thing going for many reasons.

If you go fixed at places like Bangkok Bank it is only 2.8 for a fixed 4 or 7 months I think

BUT they do not calc interest daily on at the end based on initial deposit.

Ayudya calcs daily & puts it in your account every month so it compounds

Where as BKB puts it in your account once every 6 months & based on initial deposit

THEN takes an additional 15% tax out of their fixed accounts.

So all in all Ayudhya looks good to me & has worked well for about 8 months now.

[yoshiwara]

Thankyou for that Mania

Bear with some silly questions.....

1. Is Krungsri the same as Ayudhya?

2. On the multipage PDF you provided the non resident rates didn't go that high........?

Did you do it in your own name?

2- Never noticed the non resident rates & am not sure they apply to

folks in country. That pdf I downloaded from their site here

http://www.krungsri....king-rates.aspx

Definition of Customer Type (1) - (8) as specified in the above table:

(1) Individuals refer to Thai citizens; or individuals of other nationalities and their spouses with foreign passports

who are authorized to stay in Thailand for at least three months or who have work permits and are residing or

conducting businesses in Thailand in accordance with the Bank’s criteria.

[mania]

Definition of Customer Type (1) - (8) as specified in the above table:

(1) Individuals refer to Thai citizens; or individuals of other nationalities and their spouses with foreign passports

who are authorized to stay in Thailand for at least three months or who have work permits and are residing or

conducting businesses in Thailand in accordance with the Bank’s criteria.

Good catch & being on a Non imm O extension with yearly renewals I never noticed or was questioned so did not know anything about it.

cheeryble what kind of visa/extension are you on?

[cheeryble]

Definition of Customer Type (1) - (8) as specified in the above table:

(1) Individuals refer to Thai citizens; or individuals of other nationalities and their spouses with foreign passports

who are authorized to stay in Thailand for at least three months or who have work permits and are residing or

conducting businesses in Thailand in accordance with the Bank’s criteria.

Good catch & being on a Non imm O extension with yearly renewals I never noticed or was questioned so did not know anything about it.

cheeryble what kind of visa/extension are you on?

Non O Retirement extension.

It sounds from Yoshi's post like I can legitimately get that Mee Tai Dai acct as I can stay more than three months, and I agree it sounds like a good option.

I've had a damned mil and a half on deposit doing nothing for quite a while stupid that works several thou a month I'm missing.

I shall get down there pronto.

Blessings be upon you my sons!

[mania]

Non O Retirement extension.

It sounds from Yoshi's post like I can legitimately get that Mee Tai Dai acct as I can stay more than three months, and I agree it sounds like a good option.

I've had a damned mil and a half on deposit doing nothing for quite a while stupid that works several thou a month I'm missing.

I shall get down there pronto.

Blessings be upon you my sons!

Yes you will have no problems with that visa

also yes this account based on your 1.5 mill THB will get you 3500 THB per month on the first month

As I said they pay monthly but calculate daily so it will compound from there.

Hard to beat IMHO given what is available

Edited January 8, 2013 by mania

[midas]

“Pension money invested in bullion is ‘peanuts’ at the moment,” Toshima

said.

“If 1 percent of their total assets shift to the metal, the gold

market would explode.”

Gold Lures Japan’s Pension Funds as Abe Targets Inflation

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-08/gold-lures-japan-s-pension-funds-as-government-pledges-inflation.html

[cheeryble]

“Pension money invested in bullion is ‘peanuts’ at the moment,” Toshima

said.

“If 1 percent of their total assets shift to the metal, the gold

market would explode.”

Gold Lures Japan’s Pension Funds as Abe Targets Inflation

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-08/gold-lures-japan-s-pension-funds-as-government-pledges-inflation.html

....and you're running out to the gold shop?

Good luck on that one......

[Naam]

“Pension money invested in bullion is ‘peanuts’ at the moment,” Toshima

said.

“If 1 percent of their total assets shift to the metal, the gold

market would explode.”

Gold Lures Japan’s Pension Funds as Abe Targets Inflation

http://www.bloomberg...-inflation.html

blablablabla... said Itsuo Toshima, who represented the Tokyo office of World Gold Council for 23 years through 2011.

[Jayman]

“Pension money invested in bullion is ‘peanuts’ at the moment,” Toshima

said.

“If 1 percent of their total assets shift to the metal, the gold

market would explode.”

Gold Lures Japan’s Pension Funds as Abe Targets Inflation

http://www.bloomberg...-inflation.html

blablablabla... said Itsuo Toshima, who represented the Tokyo office of World Gold Council for 23 years through 2011.

I guess that would be like taking medical advice from anyone working for the World Health Organization right? Just because they work for someone that concentrates on 1 thing we should obviously not listen to them for all they say is biased?

[midas]

“Pension money invested in bullion is ‘peanuts’ at the moment,” Toshima

said.

“If 1 percent of their total assets shift to the metal, the gold

market would explode.”

Gold Lures Japan’s Pension Funds as Abe Targets Inflation

http://www.bloomberg...-inflation.html

blablablabla... said Itsuo Toshima, who represented the Tokyo office of World Gold Council for 23 years through 2011.

I guess that would be like taking medical advice from anyone working for the World Health Organization right? Just because they work for someone that concentrates on 1 thing we should obviously not listen to them for all they say is biased?

Look, I'm amazed how little it takes to arouse the peanut gallery. It's almost as if their life depends on it that gold should not go up.

[midas]

"One of the reasons why foreign exchange is diverted to illegal channels is the illegal import of gold. It is time we took a bold step to recognise the realities of the situation and legalise the import of gold." Finance minister Manmohan Singh, February 1992.

Fast forward two decades...

"Demand for gold must be moderated... We may be left with no choice but to make it more expensive to import gold. The matter is under government consideration." Finance minister Palaniappan Chidambaram, January 2013.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/curbing-gold-demand-as-panacea-for-economic-ills-not-a-good-sign/articleshow/17947369.cms

[Naam]

“Pension money invested in bullion is ‘peanuts’ at the moment,” Toshima

said.

“If 1 percent of their total assets shift to the metal, the gold

market would explode.”

Gold Lures Japan’s Pension Funds as Abe Targets Inflation

http://www.bloomberg...-inflation.html

blablablabla... said Itsuo Toshima, who represented the Tokyo office of World Gold Council for 23 years through 2011.

I guess that would be like taking medical advice from anyone working for the World Health Organization right? Just because they work for someone that concentrates on 1 thing we should obviously not listen to them for all they say is biased?

the "World Gold Council" is concentrating on one thing, namely extremely biased bullsh*tting and spreading deliberately false information (latest the various publishings concerning Basel III). read carefully what was fed to a naive Bloomberg journalist and paint your own picture.

by the way, using a misleading name is the foundation of this organisation.

[kblaze]

“Pension money invested in bullion is ‘peanuts’ at the moment,” Toshima

said.

“If 1 percent of their total assets shift to the metal, the gold

market would explode.”

Gold Lures Japan’s Pension Funds as Abe Targets Inflation

http://www.bloomberg...-inflation.html

blablablabla... said Itsuo Toshima, who represented the Tokyo office of World Gold Council for 23 years through 2011.

I guess that would be like taking medical advice from anyone working for the World Health Organization right? Just because they work for someone that concentrates on 1 thing we should obviously not listen to them for all they say is biased?

The difference is simple; who profits from what they push?

WHO employees don't (shouldn't) profit from the various health and vaccine endeavors they do around the world, their salary isn't tied to how many sick people there are, or how many they heal, or how well they heal them.

WGC members on the other hand DO profit from pushing their platform on others.

From wikipedia;

"The World Gold Council is a non-profit association of the world's leading gold mining companies, established in 1987 to promote the use of gold. It aims to stimulate demand for gold from industry, consumers, and investors."

but this is the juicy bit;

"Based in the UK, with operations in India, the Far East, Europe and the USA, the World Gold Council is an association whose 22 members comprise the world’s leading gold mining companies, representing approximately 60% of global corporate gold production."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Gold_Council

Show me a professional Financial Analyst who is paid according to how RIGHT he is and who is willing to push gold and THEN you have something.

Edited January 10, 2013 by kblaze