Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[churchill]

Let the bondholders eat cake.

Oh,and news of Russia parking a carrier group in the Med. Depositor protection you can believe in.

Regards.

The Russians are going to have their say ....

[churchill]

Gazprom Offers Cyprus Restructuring Deal to Avoid EU Bailout

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2013/03/18/gazprom-offers-cyprus-restructuring-deal-to-avoid-eu-bailout/

https://twitter.com/russian_market/status/313594674189332480/photo/1

Edited March 18, 2013 by churchill

[churchill]

For the 'yoshiwara's

Dennis Gartman sent out the following:

"By now I suspect that most of you have heard the news from Cyrpus over the weekend, but just in case you’ve not the Cypriot government has chosen to confiscate money from any and all accounts at any and all banks in Cyprus to pay for its banking problems...

This is astounding, and the decision was… if not fully decided in Brussels… was approved by Brussels and Berlin and Paris et al. This is unlike anything I’ve heard in my 40+ years of being in the market. This is HUGE news; this is massively bearish news for the EUR; this is massively bullish news for gold and this is THE MOST IMPORTANT BUSINESS NEWS OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. Please believe me on this; this is Europe’s “Lehman” moment.

I shall be around all day tomorrow trying to figure out what has happened here and why, but if the EUR… which closed on Friday at 1.307… does not open below 1.2900 and then continue lower, and if gold, which closed on Friday at $1590/oz does not open above $1625 and head higher I will be truly, truly stunned."

Be prepared; Monday is going to be violent"

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

[churchill]

'Swiss Banker ‏@russian_market

CYPRIOT PARLIAMENT DELAYS VOTE TILL FRIDAY - CYPRUS TV'

Yup Russia is going to have its say ....

Putin brands Cyprus saving levy as ‘unfair’

http://rt.com/business/putin-cyprus-levy-unfair-424/

Edited March 18, 2013 by churchill

[mania]

Be prepared; Monday is going to be violent"

I half wonder if it will be bullish for the USD?

In the past they run to the USD as another perceived safe haven.

Will it be so this time?

Or will Bernanke control that with Euro/USD swaps with Euro Banks to

keep the volatility perceived low?

If so gold will not jump. Or may initially then get squashed down later in the week.

[churchill]

Be prepared; Monday is going to be violent"

I half wonder if it will be bullish for the USD?

In the past they run to the USD as another perceived safe haven.

Will it be so this time?

Or will Bernanke control that with Euro/USD swaps with Euro Banks to

keep the volatility perceived low?

If so gold will not jump. Or may initially then get squashed down later in the week.

No reason why gold and USD cannot go up together ....They have at times

[churchill]

Why would anyone in europe or elsewhere now want to deposit money in a bank ..no guarantee , low interest rates , probable tax .... & now tax up to in a whim 3 ,5 , or 25 % ..... to bail out mistakes of others

Plus more, for sure , QE and coming inflation

Gold or cash ??

Try the gold miners ... very low valuations plus dividends

Edited March 18, 2013 by churchill

[jbrain]

Why would anyone in europe or elsewhere now want to deposit money in a bank ..no guarantee , low interest rates , probable tax .... & now tax up to in a whim 3 ,5 , or 25 % ..... to bail out mistakes of others

Plus more, for sure , QE and coming inflation

Gold or cash ??

Try the gold miners ... very low valuations plus dividends

I have always been told that gold goes up in times of war.

I wouldn't be surprised that the event in Cyprus ignites what could turn in a Europe, or world, wide civil unrest.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cyprus-rescue-risks-backlash-000300230.html

Cyprus Rescue Risks Backlash

Edit to add link

Edited March 18, 2013 by jbrain

[midas]

Joerg Kraemer, chief economist of the German Commerzbank, has called for private savings accounts in Italy to be similarly plundered. “A tax rate of 15 percent on financial assets would probably be enough to push the Italian government debt to below the critical level of 100 percent of gross domestic product,

http://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/brisante-daten-die-maer-von-den-klammen-krisenstaaten-seite-all/7931578-all.html

[midas]

Hitler Bails Out Cyprus

Edited March 18, 2013 by midas

[jbrain]

Don't know if this has been covered previously, and it's a bit time consuming to go through 376 pages, but what are your thoughts about holding gold trackers or gold bullions like GBS, GBSS and GLD as opposed to physical gold ?

[mccw]

Don't know if this has been covered previously, and it's a bit time consuming to go through 376 pages, but what are your thoughts about holding gold trackers or gold bullions like GBS, GBSS and GLD as opposed to physical gold ?

Never in a million years!

[jbrain]

Don't know if this has been covered previously, and it's a bit time consuming to go through 376 pages, but what are your thoughts about holding gold trackers or gold bullions like GBS, GBSS and GLD as opposed to physical gold ?

Never in a million years!

Could you give a reasoning for your opinion? I understand that they invest in physical gold so should move inline with the gold price. Or not?

Are there somewhere hidden costs.

Fact is that my money is in Europe in an trading account and currently parked in US$, so if I want to buy physical gold I would need to fly there.

[mccw]

Don't know if this has been covered previously, and it's a bit time consuming to go through 376 pages, but what are your thoughts about holding gold trackers or gold bullions like GBS, GBSS and GLD as opposed to physical gold ?

Never in a million years!

Could you give a reasoning for your opinion? I understand that they invest in physical gold so should move inline with the gold price. Or not?

Are there somewhere hidden costs.

Fact is that my money is in Europe in an trading account and currently parked in US$, so if I want to buy physical gold I would need to fly there.

Why you don't transfer your money to where you are and buy/ burry a load of bullion with it?

Reasons:

No greedy EU w/bankers or governments eyes hands to be getting near it. Snatching / taxing / stealing al a Cyprus , MF global etc

No counter party risk.

No fractional, smoke and mirrors shenanigans, "we have the gold" oops we don't have the gold, SHTF no one knows where all the assets went and we've all got selective amnesia ; no law for the crooks because bought politicians etc etc

You own gold to protect from the system , so buy owning in paper its reliant on the very system your trying to protect against.

If a punt on trading in and out regularly then maybe; but certainly not for the buy and hold reserve purposes

[jbrain]

Don't know if this has been covered previously, and it's a bit time consuming to go through 376 pages, but what are your thoughts about holding gold trackers or gold bullions like GBS, GBSS and GLD as opposed to physical gold ?

Never in a million years!

Could you give a reasoning for your opinion? I understand that they invest in physical gold so should move inline with the gold price. Or not?

Are there somewhere hidden costs.

Fact is that my money is in Europe in an trading account and currently parked in US$, so if I want to buy physical gold I would need to fly there.

Why you don't transfer your money to where you are and buy/ burry a load of bullion with it?

Reasons:

No greedy EU w/bankers or governments eyes hands to be getting near it. Snatching / taxing / stealing al a Cyprus , MF global etc

No counter party risk.

No fractional, smoke and mirrors shenanigans, "we have the gold" oops we don't have the gold, SHTF no one knows where all the assets went and we've all got selective amnesia ; no law for the crooks because bought politicians etc etc

You own gold to protect from the system , so buy owning in paper its reliant on the very system your trying to protect against.

If a punt on trading in and out regularly then maybe; but certainly not for the buy and hold reserve purposes

Thanks for your explanation.

Indeed what is happening in Cyprus is something to seriously think about. Below is a good article of what can happen.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/why-cyprus-bail-bigger-deal-think-141844402.html

Why the Cyprus Bail In Is a Bigger Deal Than You Think

Why I don't transfer? Because that would involve first exchange to Euro, then again transfer and exchange to Thai Baht. By the time I have it in hands more than a week has passed and quite some exchange and transfer cost have been drained from the original amount.

And is it possible to buy gold bullions in Thailand ?

Edited March 18, 2013 by jbrain

[cheeryble]

Mr Brain

why would you park your money in an inactive asset which makes no added value and after the much vaunted perfect goldbug storm, the greatest financial catastophe in history, barely limped to it's value of near 30 years before? I mean a bit's OK, but if you held a lot proportionally you would need to hedge against your gold holding).

Be careful taking advice here. Cheeryble.

Edited March 18, 2013 by cheeryble

[jbrain]

Mr Brain

why would you park your money in an inactive asset which makes no added value and after the much vaunted perfect goldbug storm, the greatest financial catastophe in history, barely limped to it's value of near 30 years before? I mean a bit's OK, but if you held a lot proportionally you would need to hedge against your gold holding).

Be careful taking advice here. Cheeryble.

Excuse me but English is not my first language, so I would like to double check with you if I understand your post .

Do I understand correctly that you advise against purchasing gold at this point, being it either physical or in the form of gold bullions ?

[Naam]

Let the bondholders eat cake.

Oh,and news of Russia parking a carrier group in the Med. Depositor protection you can believe in.

Regards.

an intelligent suggestion if there were holders of bonds issued by the semi-bankrupt banks. but why should banks which accepted billions of "black and flight" (mostly from Russia and Greece) money issue bonds and pay interest if they can eat the cake and have it?

what Cypriot banks did is take deposits, no questions asked, pay a pittance of credit interest and invest the cash in mostly Greek government bonds. not a double but a triple or even quadruple whammy!

all was well till... Greece went belly-up

[Naam]

to hedge against your gold holding

blasphemy! punishable by stoning according to sharia goldbugger law

[mccw]

Don't know if this has been covered previously, and it's a bit time consuming to go through 376 pages, but what are your thoughts about holding gold trackers or gold bullions like GBS, GBSS and GLD as opposed to physical gold ?

Never in a million years!

Could you give a reasoning for your opinion? I understand that they invest in physical gold so should move inline with the gold price. Or not?

Are there somewhere hidden costs.

Fact is that my money is in Europe in an trading account and currently parked in US$, so if I want to buy physical gold I would need to fly there.

Why you don't transfer your money to where you are and buy/ burry a load of bullion with it?

Reasons:

No greedy EU w/bankers or governments eyes hands to be getting near it. Snatching / taxing / stealing al a Cyprus , MF global etc

No counter party risk.

No fractional, smoke and mirrors shenanigans, "we have the gold" oops we don't have the gold, SHTF no one knows where all the assets went and we've all got selective amnesia ; no law for the crooks because bought politicians etc etc

You own gold to protect from the system , so buy owning in paper its reliant on the very system your trying to protect against.

If a punt on trading in and out regularly then maybe; but certainly not for the buy and hold reserve purposes

Thanks for your explanation.

Indeed what is happening in Cyprus is something to seriously think about. Below is a good article of what can happen.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/why-cyprus-bail-bigger-deal-think-141844402.html

Why the Cyprus Bail In Is a Bigger Deal Than You Think

Why I don't transfer? Because that would involve first exchange to Euro, then again transfer and exchange to Thai Baht. By the time I have it in hands more than a week has passed and quite some exchange and transfer cost have been drained from the original amount.

And is it possible to buy gold bullions in Thailand ?

The point of reserve is gaurding against what could be Massive losses in Euro or Dollar terms in case of bank runs or dominos falling/ financial chaos in the west or globally. So a little expense moving money maybe needed but is worth it for the purpose and peace of mind.

Thailand is a great place to hold physical gold. There are gold shops everywhere! If there was a global crises or thsi banks were shut for some reason, ATMs not working; the chances are local gold shops would still be trading and at least enough bht could be exchange to buy essential goods during the crises period. (I'd still keep some physical cash on hand as well though).

The margins to trade are much lower than uk for example also. 350bht a bht weight, that's roughly 1.5% an oz compared to UK to purchase now is often 5-8% over spot. So what you've spend in transfers from EU you've instantly saved in purchase premium.

[Naam]

as expected, it looks as if the little people of Cyprus will be (partly) spared. link unfortunately only in German:

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/euro-gruppe-gibt-zypern-mehr-spielraum-bei-zwangsabgabe-a-889629.html

Edited March 19, 2013 by Naam

[midas]

" The amount of debt worldwide is more than all of the bank accounts in the world, and the current financial situation in Cyprus is the inevitable next phase: Confiscation.

We should have figured out this was coming when JP Morgan (read: Jamie Dimon) reached in and illegally stepped ahead of customers at MF Global and grabbed over $1 billion, with the help of his crony pal Jon Corzine."

YES INDEED !!!!

http://rt.com/op-edge/debt-cyprus-financial-confiscation-441/

Edited March 19, 2013 by midas

[churchill]

I think this will be the spin ...

'The proposed contribution of depositors is limited to interest income of not more than two years.'

They are 'only ' taking the interest

Address to the Nation by the President of the Republic, Mr Nicos Anastasiades

http://www.cyprus.gov.cy/moi/pio/pio.nsf/All/9B6CC88D6BE4D00FC2257B31006DBD5B?Opendocument

[churchill]

Whatever they do now is going to be a disaster .... They have lost trust in banks ..

'Kelly Evans ‏@Kelly_Evans

*RTRS: draft Cypriot bill spares accounts <€20k, levies 6.75% on €20-100k, 9.9% >€100k'

[churchill]

So now new euro guarantee reduced to 20 K ....?

http://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-cyprus-plan-b-2013-3

[churchill]

as expected, it looks as if the little people of Cyprus will be (partly) spared. link unfortunately only in German:

http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/euro-gruppe-gibt-zypern-mehr-spielraum-bei-zwangsabgabe-a-889629.html

So all this crap is coming from GERMANY

[jbrain]

And is it possible to buy gold bullions in Thailand ?

The point of reserve is gaurding against what could be Massive losses in Euro or Dollar terms in case of bank runs or dominos falling/ financial chaos in the west or globally. So a little expense moving money maybe needed but is worth it for the purpose and peace of mind.

Thailand is a great place to hold physical gold. There are gold shops everywhere! If there was a global crises or thsi banks were shut for some reason, ATMs not working; the chances are local gold shops would still be trading and at least enough bht could be exchange to buy essential goods during the crises period. (I'd still keep some physical cash on hand as well though).

The margins to trade are much lower than uk for example also. 350bht a bht weight, that's roughly 1.5% an oz compared to UK to purchase now is often 5-8% over spot. So what you've spend in transfers from EU you've instantly saved in purchase premium.

So today I went to look for Bullions. The first shop I entered in Central Pattaya had Bullions in the counter from 1-2-5-10 Baht and had an inscription 99,9% gold. They also had some 1 Baht bars with a Thai logo.

I asked the price for the 10 Baht gold bar and was told day price was 22.300 Buy and 22.200 Sell per Baht weight. When buy a 200 Baht per baht weight was added and selling price 100 Baht deducted.

Then I went to a few other gold shop in South Pattaya and the buying and selling price was identical and the trade margins identical except one shop where who calculated a trade margin of a whopping 600 Baht per baht weight. Probably thought I was Russian

But what I noticed at those shops was that their gold bars all had the inscription 96.5 % gold. When I asked them for the 99.9% they couildn't get or had to order.

So to be clear, the gold price announced at the entry of the shop and which is identical at all shops, is that the price for 96,5% or 99.9% gold?

Any recommendations as where to buy the bullions?

[cheeryble]

to hedge against your gold holding

blasphemy! punishable by stoning according to sharia goldbugger law

Sorry about that Naam

....but of course though in a perfect world gold is a solid hedge against inflation, in the real world gold is so volatile it is a liability with more disadvantages than even low yielding conservatively invested cash. If I wanted an inflation hedge I would find one with value adding.

I have realised (rather late) that one has in fact to hedge against a cash position......so what's good for the goose is good for the gander?

ps can understand a modest gold holding but personally don't want one if I can help it.

Edited March 19, 2013 by cheeryble

[cheeryble]

.

Edited March 19, 2013 by cheeryble

[Naam]

to hedge against your gold holding

blasphemy! punishable by stoning according to sharia goldbugger law

Sorry about that Naam

....but of course though in a perfect world gold is a solid hedge against inflation, in the real world gold is so volatile it is a liability with more disadvantages than even low yielding conservatively invested cash. If I wanted an inflation hedge I would find one with value adding.

I have realised (rather late) that one has in fact to hedge against a cash position......so what's good for the goose is good for the gander?

ps can understand a modest gold holding but personally don't want one if I can help it.

people buy gold for a variety of reasons Cheeryble and some of the reasons do not warrant a hedge. i/we hold a certain percentage of our liquid assets in physical gold

-because Mrs Naam ordered me to do so and over many years it proved profitable to comply (not always but once in a while) with orders based on female intuition.

-because i consider gold to be some sort of insurance policy which (may) cover potential financial damage should certain factors cause the latter.