Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

Marc Faber:
“I love the markets. I love the fact that gold is finally breaking down. That will offer an excellent buying opportunity.

http://maxkeiser.com/category/gold-access-level/

yeah right Marc! just tell us more of the amusing story that you like steep values losses of any asset you own (and propagated) because "that will offer an excellent buying opportunity."

[yoshiwara]

Marc Faber:

“I love the markets. I love the fact that gold is finally breaking down. That will offer an excellent buying opportunity.

http://maxkeiser.com/category/gold-access-level/

yeah right Marc! just tell us more of the amusing story that you like steep values losses of any asset you own (and propagated) because "that will offer an excellent buying opportunity."

...and of course gold has provided a splendid buying opportunity at all stops down from 1930. Funny, but I can't remember one forum gold bug advising holding back from going all in until the gold price dropped below 1400. Hey-ho.

[midas]

The results of polling about what people think of gold

Do the goldbugs know something you don’t?

http://therealasset.co.uk/goldbug-infographic/

[yoshiwara]

The results of polling about what people think of gold

Do the goldbugs know something you don’t?

http://therealasset.co.uk/goldbug-infographic/

No.

[mccw]

Soo the central bank of Cyprus thinks the Value of a gold reserve is more than any amount of worthless fiat money?!

"""Cypriot Finance Minister Haris Georgiades forecasts a sale of excess Cypriot gold reserves during the next months, but the Central Bank remains opposed.

The Finance Minister says he believes the governments gold sale of 400 million ($525-million), of excess gold reserves in order to secure 10 billion euro aid from Cypruss Troika of lenders, will materialize.

He told Bloomberg,The exact details of it will be formulated in due course primarily by the board of the Central Bank, adding, obviously its a big decision.

Cypriot officials confirmed the plan last week, but the Central Bank has rejected the notion, and the Central Bank chief Panico Demetriades said last week that the Cypriot government didnt have the right to sell gold without his direct consent, and said he hadnt been consulted on the sale.

There is an issue and its actually a major issue, Georgiades said about the sale.

The government will do whatever is needed to ensure smooth and effective cooperation between all decision- making authorities, he continued.

Georgiades did not elaborate on how much gold Cyprus might sell nor at what price, but its rumored they will sell 75% of their reserves. According to the World Gold Council, the Central Bank holds 13.9 metric tons.

A wrinkle in the Cypriot bail-out plan arose last week when a leaked document indicated the total cost of the bailout had risen to 23bn, up from the original 17bn estimate, leaving the beleaguered Cypriot government in a scramble to raise an additional 6 billion ($7.85 billion). Most of the funds are expected to come from depositors in banks, but Cyprus also hatched a plan to sell about 400 million ($525-million) worth of gold reserves.

Gold the not-so-precious metal

The gold market took a catastrophic fall after the announcement, and in the past week has plunged more than $200 an ounce, breaking both the $1,500 and $1,400 thresholds, reaching a 30-year record low in just 2 days.

Morgan Stanley has cut its 2013 gold forecast by 16%, down to $1,487, as investors continue their selling frenzy.

The sell-off has all the hallmarks of panic-driven, stale long liquidation, stop-loss and capitulation selling in the face of a concerted short sale Peter Richardson, a Morgan Stanley analyst, wrote in a report.

"In the case of the [Cypriot] gold, it's down to the board of the central bank. It's perfectly understandable.. They have the final say," said Georgiades. """"""

-RT app

[Billmont]

Just to make things clear. I am not saying buy or sell, all I said was gold can also go up sharply as it has recently fallen. Any investment should be with surplus funds and be in it for the long term. If you will need the money next year then do not invest in the markets including gold this year. No one has a crystal ball. In general investing in markets and/or gold will have a better return in the long term than keeping it in cash. By the way Blether defined N. Korea threatening the USA with a Nuclear attack as a crisis, that was not a military crisis as presently that is not possible. In a few years maybe! Just a few years ago the property market crashed, then the markets now gold,The property markets are slowly coming back, the markets are doing very well now its golds turn to sit at the bottom. I am too long in the tooth to panic over a short term trend. If in 5 years time gold is still the same price or lower I will be very surprised... and very disappointed! Ha!

[churchill]

From the Beeb , Newsnight

[Naam]

The results of polling about what people think of gold

Do the goldbugs know something you don’t?

http://naams-bullsh-wisdom.org

[Naam]

guru Max and lovely Stacy

[churchill]

The aftermath of the gold crash - what happens next?

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/precious-metals-and-gems/gold/gold-price-crash-what-now-63500#.UW_Y2nV9Q4E.twitter

[crusader79]

Barron's:

Japan's New Export: Deflation?

By RANDALL W. FORSYTH

Lower yen means dearer currencies for Asian competitors, just as China slows. 1997 redux?

The Bank of Japan's plan to double the size of its balance sheet, with the
aim of lifting its nation's inflation to 2%, appears to be having the
precise opposite effect on the rest of the world.

By sending the value of the yen sharply lower, the Japanese central
bank's money-printing scheme effectively has lifted the exchange rates
of the currencies of its Asian neighbors and other competitors in the
global export market. That's especially true for China, the world's
second-largest economy, which already was slowing.

China's currency, the yuan, already has risen to a record high versus
the dollar. The greenback, meanwhile, also has appreciated more than
20% against the Japanese yen since late last year, when it became
apparent that Shinzo Abe would become Japan's new prime minister and
would set the government's policy on a course for radical reflation.
Thus, China's yuan has increased in value even more than Japan's yet—an
extreme disadvantage for the former's economy, which is dependent on
cheap exports.

The effects are evident in the freefall of commodity prices,
especially metals. And that has extended to the much discussed plunges
in gold and silver, which has exerted a deflationary undertow on global
equity markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell only 138 points,
or 0.9%, Wednesday. In so doing, it held up better than other major
market measures by virtue of not including Apple

(ticker: AAPL) among its select 30 stocks, which lost 5% after briefly
dipping below the $400 a share level. Apple still exerts a big influence
on other market measures, even though it was eclipsed again by ExxonMobil

(XOM) as the biggest market-capitalization stock in the Standard &
Poor's 500; the large-capitalization-stock benchmark fell twice as much
as the Dow Wednesday, or 1.8%.

But the market's woes extend beyond
Apple. Dr. Copper—the commodity with a putative Ph.D. in economics—fell
another 3.6% Wednesday, to a 17-month low of $3.1880 a pound for a June
futures contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile
Exchange. With upbeat numbers for U.S. housing and auto activity, two
major uses of the red metal, the weakest link appears to be China.

To Albert Edwards, Société Générale's chief global strategist, the
yen's slide has echoes of 1997. That's when the plunge in the Japanese
currency set off a spill of dominoes in Asia, starting with the Thai
baht, as the region's currencies suddenly were rendered uncompetitive
versus the cheap yen. The same pattern may be playing out now, with
similarly destabilizing ripple effects throughout the region.

This isn't how the Bank of Japan's monetary stimulus was supposed to
work. The purchase of Japanese government bonds and other securities, in
theory, should have worked to lower interest rates and put more cash
into the coffers of the nation's banks, which they were supposed to lend
out the money to support recovery. None of those simplistic effects
described in elementary economics textbooks are playing out as
described, however.

As Richard Koo, chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute
details in his latest research report, past Bank of Japan programs of
"quantitative easing"—the large-scale purchase of securities by the
central bank—have not produced economic growth. That's even though the
Bank of Japan's expansion of its balance sheet has been proportionately
bigger than the Federal Reserve's or the Bank of England's, he notes.

In the case of Japan, the central bank's securities purchases—which
inject liquidity into the financial system—have failed to produce a
similar expansion of the money supply. That requires an increase in bank
lending, which hasn't happened either because of banks' reluctance to
lend or borrowers' reluctance to borrow. Koo pins the problem on the
latter in a balance-sheet recession, where businesses and consumers are
more apt to shed debt than take it on—even at interest rates of
virtually zero.

As a result, the impact of the Bank of Japan's actions so far mainly
has been felt in the currency markets, not the credit markets. Moreover,
despite the prospect of heavy, continued purchases of Japanese
government bonds by the central banks, JGB yields have been bouncing
higher. Again, precisely the opposite of the planned outcome predicted
in the textbooks.

Japan's actions mainly have worked to lower the yen, which in turn
raises the exchange rate of the currencies of its export competitors
around the globe. In effect, that is a tightening of monetary policy for
everybody else—at a time that global growth is slowing. Viewed from
that perspective, no wonder gold is being battered.

In his maiden voyage around the world as U.S. Treasury Secretary,
Jack Lew implored the Group of 20 to eschew "beggar thy neighbor"
policies, a phrase describing the destructive protectionist currency and
trade practices of the 1930s. But the example of the meltdown of the
emerging markets in 1997 and 1998 may be more relevant to what policy
makers should guard against.

Robert Burns perhaps summed it up best: The best laid plans of mice
and men often go awry (in the English version.) How well the words of
the Scottish translate into Japanese, however, is beyond my ken.

[yoshiwara]

How well the words of the Scottish translate into Japanese, however, is beyond my ken.

Kurosawa translated Macbeth into Japanese very well indeed.

[mccw]

The nation today front page reporting Yaoworat Bangkok gold shops closed and those open swamped by BUYERS until all bullion SOLD OUT!

[churchill]

Unintended Consequences Are Increasing World Demand for Gold

http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/81553/unintended-consequences-increasing-world-demand-gold?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PeakProsperity+%28Peak+Prosperity%29

[Bronzepickup]

the simple explanation is: Gold has NO intrinsic value (as the goldbugs claim). actually nothing exists which has intrinsic value if there is no demand. stranded on an uninhabitated island the demand for Gold is ZERO. on this island the art of hunting and fishing as well as the knowledge of a source with drinkable water is a zillion times superior in intrinsic values than tons of Gold

Ain't that the truth.

First posts are usually the best ones.

If you think you will catch a fish, you probably will.

Gold in the pocket weighs you down.

[Bronzepickup]

Unintended Consequences Are Increasing World Demand for Gold

http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/81553/unintended-consequences-increasing-world-demand-gold?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PeakProsperity+%28Peak+Prosperity%29

First impressions are usually the best ones too.

[Bronzepickup]

PS. I never thought I'd get a like from Naam on this thread.

BTW. Some of my gold posts have gone missing.

Anybody else have the same problem?

[metisdead]

There were some nonsense trolling posts removed previously .

[jbrain]

PS. I never thought I'd get a like from Naam on this thread.

BTW. Some of my gold posts have gone missing.

Anybody else have the same problem?

You see, that's the reason they removed the post

[Bronzepickup]

I'd better place a 35 yard curler into the top corner then, just inside the right hand post.

Let's hope the ref doesn't say I'm offside.

[Naam]

PS. I never thought I'd get a like from Naam on this thread.

BTW. Some of my gold posts have gone missing.

Anybody else have the same problem?

anybody who gets a "like" from me has a problem

[cheeryble]

Despite complaints on Thaivisa that financial institutions are not tightening up ship:

in the wake of gold’s recently sharp losses, the CME Group Inc. (US:CME), the parent company of the main metals and energy exchanges in the U.S., said Monday it was raising the collateral requirements for trading in benchmark gold, silver and other precious-metals futures contracts.

If he has any money left Marc Faber will now have to fork out 19% extra to get leverage for his recommended extra buys

At the same time some very good news for silver buyers:

NEW YORK, April 18, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- CME Group, the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced the launch of a new physically delivered Silver (1,000 oz.) futures contract, scheduled to begin trading in June 2013. This contract will be listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of COMEX.

"We're introducing our new 1,000-oz. silver futures contract in response to demand from our more nervous customers, who are increasingly looking for cost-effective ways to prepare for the end of the world," said Robert Ray , CME Group Managing Director EMEA. "We are offering free water purification pills and a catapult with every contract".

Edited April 19, 2013 by cheeryble

[churchill]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wgbpGF9kT0&feature=player_embedded

[midas]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wgbpGF9kT0&feature=player_embedded

Very well done Churchill!

There was great anticipation that this would reach YouTube eventually because this documentary cannot be viewed on the Canadian broadcasting Corporation website unless you are in Canada. But it only took 2 days Let us hope it goes viral !

part 3 is where they get to the shenanigans in today's market

And did you see this in the Montréal Gazette about this the same person in the film Andrew Maguire, having done a similar job before for the BBC in UK. After BBC spent three quarters of a million dollars preparing a similar documentary, it was pulled at the last minute. Some speculate that Tony Blair, who is on the payroll of JP Morgan ($2 million a year ) made a " phone call " to the BBC. part 3 of the film is where they get to the shenanigans in today's market

http://www.montrealgazette.com/entertainment/Brian+McKenna+explores+Secret+World+Gold/8255149/story.html

Edited April 20, 2013 by midas

[yoshiwara]

Some speculate that

That's all you do.

[midas]

Very well done Churchill!

There was great anticipation that this would reach YouTube eventually because this documentary cannot be viewed on the Canadian broadcasting Corporation website unless you are in Canada. But it only took 2 days Let us hope it goes viral !

And so it begins................. because it really doesn't get any plainer than this

Last night, while interviewed on camera for the CBC documentary,

Commodity Futures Trading Commission Commissioner Bart Chilton said this:

"What we have seen all too often is where you have an individual trader who has excessive concentration - when I say "excessive concentration" I mean concentration that can lead to pushing prices around - and we've seen it in the precious metals. In silver. In gold. And some of the other commodities."

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4658/so-which-it-commissioner

Edited April 20, 2013 by midas

[Khun Jean]

http://www.professorfekete.com/articles/AEFWhoSaidDragon.pdf

[farang000999]

when was the last time you bought something based on the cost of its production Farang?

Well, first off I have no idea if these numbers reported by the mining companies are legitimate or not and whether they would be in legal trouble if they reported false numbers.

Gold, unlike other commodities, is not consumed so you can't use it's explicit cost of production to price it. Certainly, if gold went to $50,000/ounce tomorrow you would expect more sellers than buyers even without an increase in global supply.

But from a psychological perspective, if the cost to mine 1 ounce of gold is $1200 and obviously the miners are seeking a profit... gold probably looks very expensive around $2,000 and perhaps accurately priced around $1400?

Do you have any opinion about the so far very successful pair trade of shorting miners/owning gold/gld?

[midas]

#!

[Naam]

when was the last time you bought something based on the cost of its production Farang?

Well, first off I have no idea if these numbers reported by the mining companies are legitimate or not and whether they would be in legal trouble if they reported false numbers.

Gold, unlike other commodities, is not consumed so you can't use it's explicit cost of production to price it. Certainly, if gold went to $50,000/ounce tomorrow you would expect more sellers than buyers even without an increase in global supply.

But from a psychological perspective, if the cost to mine 1 ounce of gold is $1200 and obviously the miners are seeking a profit... gold probably looks very expensive around $2,000 and perhaps accurately priced around $1400?

Do you have any opinion about the so far very successful pair trade of shorting miners/owning gold/gld?

no, i don't have any opinion.