Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[churchill]

Some interesting views on last weeks plunge in Gold below - Many think this is the start of a further correction and there are not a lot of positive views on gold at these levels - but who knows !

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

http://truthingold.blogspot.com/

http://fofoa.blogspot.com/

http://www.expectedreturnsblog.com/

[churchill]

Missing from the Swiss central bank: CHF6.3bn

"A look through the FX reserve data shows that much of the fall can be accounted for by an increase in gold holdings. The SNB’s gold holdings at market value went from 39.1bn to 45bn showing an increase of 5.9bn (gold measured in CHF terms was actually down by 4.8% during June). Thus instead of providing an indication of the SNB’s intervention stance, what we have is interesting insight into the SNB’s portfolio allocation which interestingly is showing a bias toward holding gold. It will be interesting if over the coming months the SNB also reveals the makeup of their FX reserves and whether they are showing a bias away from both USD and EUR and more toward GBP and other currencies (commodity linked) as a means of better diversifying their reserves."

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/06/279261/missing-from-the-swiss-central-bank-chf6-3bn/

[churchill]

and as Australia's May Trade Surplus Widens on Overseas Shipments of Coal, Gold

Australia’s trade surplus widened in May as exports of coal and gold climbed on demand from Asia, outpacing a gain in imports.

Exports gained 6 percent to A$24.7 billion, today’s report showed. Coal exports rose 10 percent and non-monetary gold jumped 66 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-06/australia-s-may-trade-surplus-widens-on-overseas-shipments-of-coal-gold.html

[AnnyLing]

what happened to all the Goldbugs ?

[flying]

what happened to all the Goldbugs ?

Nothing in my case although I dont consider myself a classic bug. Still a great place for fiat & glad I jumped into both Gold & Silver ....How about you?

[sokal]

what happened to all the Goldbugs ?

Busy loading up on gold and mining shares.

[Lost in LOS]

goldbugs....................I am counting my money, thank you but I do have a lot of silver too.....just in case

[churchill]

Gold Swaps

Who wanted to raise cash ? Why was it done via a commercial bank ? Why didn't they just sell their gold ?

Sometime ago I suggested that Greece should sell their gold if they needed cash - Perhaps they needed the cash but did not want the world to know about it and this was the only way ?

Does it mean that Greece ( or another ) needed to raise cash without alerting the markets and is unable to do it in any other way ?

see http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/08/281601/the-bis/

Edited July 9, 2010 by churchill

[AnnyLing]

what happened to all the Goldbugs ?

Busy loading up on gold and mining shares.

yeah right !

[sokal]

Gold Swaps

Who wanted to raise cash ? Why was it done via a commercial bank ? Why didn't they just sell their gold ?

Sometime ago I suggested that Greece should sell their gold if they needed cash - Perhaps they needed the cash but did not want the world to know about it and this was the only way ?

Does it mean that Greece ( or another ) needed to raise cash without alerting the markets and is unable to do it in any other way ?

see http://ftalphaville....281601/the-bis/

No, Greece is not that stupid. Niether is any central banks. Some say they are selling gold but its just not true.

Do you think a central bank would sell gold bullion just to put the returns on the same pile of fiat that they printed up for free the day before ?

Edited July 9, 2010 by sokal

[sokal]

I got some silver today, I wanted to buy on the options expiry date but I had to work yesterday. Thats what sucks about buying metal,  cant do it by wire. That was a heavy load for my pocket:D

Annyling

Edited July 9, 2010 by sokal

[SiamRose]

Iran cbank says has sold gold to boost reserves

selling USD , Euros and Gold !

What are they buying ??

Uranium, : )

[badge]

Gold

Store of value

Low returns on other investments and fears about the world economy have caused the price of gold to soar. Don’t count on its continued rise

Jul 8th 2010 | Delhi and london

http://www.economist.com/node/16536800

[flying]

This says...pretty much exactly... what I have always thought....

When Will the Gold Bull Market End

So, the frustrated punter says, when will gold finally start topping?

Gold will be topping when it the smart money believes that the real economy is becoming naturally sustainable, robustly organic in its credit creation, and healthy in the growth of the median wage to support consumption, without subsidy or interference from the Federal Reserve or the draconian taxes of an outsized financial sector.

When people are no longer interested in what Goldman Sachs and their ilk are doing, or what Bernanke and his merry pranksters have to say, then will be the time to start taking profits in your gold holdings.

This is no top, although sentiment is unusually bearish. This is the base for a new leg up that is going to surprise all but a few.

Edited July 12, 2010 by flying

[Naam]

"This is the base for a new leg up that is going to surprise all but a few."

insha'allah! (among those few who won't be suprised are Mr Flying and Mrs Naam).

[flying]

"This is the base for a new leg up that is going to surprise all but a few."

insha'allah! (among those few who won't be suprised are Mr Flying and Mrs Naam).

Yes it may only be an army of two but it is a happy army

[churchill]

Hedge Fund Washouts Not Bearish for Gold

Gold kicked off the third quarter with a major sell-off – but the reasons behind it are not as bearish as one might think.

Gold took a major hit the week before last. On July 1, the yellow metal cratered by a whopping $40 an ounce – its largest single-day move in quite a while.

Not a very auspicious start to the quarter one might think…

more at .. http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/tpg/taipan-daily/taipan-daily-071210.html

[Naam]

it seems that Gold has lost its shine.

[flying]

It is funny how as gold still sits above 1200 or close to 1300 for coins with premiums & it is being called names.....

Perhaps it has lost some shine for those with weak hands expecting rocket rides everyday...but it has not lost sight of its purpose IMO

[leemo]

I read recently that some analysts predict almost a halving of the gold price within the next couple of years. Wish I could agree, because that suggests the state of the world's messed up politics and economy will somewhat improve.

Anyway I believe we're still in the pit with the reality of deeper and deliberately concealed economic gloom soon to be kicking in, and my money's on further rises with a guess it will reach nearer $1500 than $1200 by the 2012 US election.

[Naam]

It is funny how as gold still sits above 1200 or close to 1300 for coins with premiums & it is being called names.....

Perhaps it has lost some shine for those with weak hands expecting rocket rides everyday...but it has not lost sight of its purpose IMO

it's not a matter of calling names but realising (again) the fact that Gold is nothing but a commodity which carries a price based solely on offer and demand and any talk about its intrinsic value is... just bla-bla. price movements of plus/minus 12-15% within a single month (in some non-USD currencies) are supporting evidence for my claim. people who don't realise the latter are financial amateurs (present company of course excluded).

p.s. please don't reveal to Mrs Naam what i just posted as she might exile me to the dog house (even hough we don't have one) :jap:

[flying]

p.s. please don't reveal to Mrs Naam what i just posted as she might exile me to the dog house (even though we don't have one) :jap:

Oooops wish I read that before sending her that sms alert

Of course I agree with your post though about it being a commodity & was referring more to the articles from the talking heads aka: financial advisors lately....

[gregb]

p.s. please don't reveal to Mrs Naam what i just posted as she might exile me to the dog house (even though we don't have one) :jap:

Oooops wish I read that before sending her that sms alert

Of course I agree with your post though about it being a commodity & was referring more to the articles from the talking heads aka: financial advisors lately....

Are you really sure about this?

What I mean is that I have several financial contracts right now that are denominated in gold. While financial professionals do seem to keep pushing the "it's only a commodity" theory, real people seem to think it is wealth and money.

Is the Euro also a commodity then simply because it isn't Baht?

We like to think of a currency having value because of the fundamentals of the country backing it, but that of course is not what truly gives it value. What gives it real value is that we always know there will be demand for it by the citizens of the respective country to pay their taxes. All these economic fundamentals are really just ways for us to guestimate demand for a currency. It isn't that a fiat currency is "backed", but it is because we make rational arguments to accept it because we believe someone else will take it from us in the future.

XAU is fundamentally no different. My belief that it will continue to strengthen is based on my analysis that people will increasingly demand gold for their transactions, and that this will effect a positive feedback loop where as the popularity grows, even more people will be accepting of its role in commerce.

While gold can be a commodity, to be honest I think the particular myth that "gold is only a commodity" has outlived its usefulness to society.

By the way, I am definitely a financial ameteur, and proud of it. I do however possess the ability to think, and I can think circles around most financial professionals. As the industrial world progresses through systematic collapse over the next several decades due to the energy crisis, those "professionals" are going to be seriously outmatched by intelligent amateurs.

My prediction. I'll see you all back here in 50 years with proof I was correct.

[Abrak]

What I mean is that I have several financial contracts right now that are denominated in gold. While financial professionals do seem to keep pushing the "it's only a commodity" theory, real people seem to think it is wealth and money.

Boy, yes we should all listen to those 'real people'. I have learnt that lesson by listening to my blow up rubber doll,who whispered in my ear 'Buy Global Crossing, it so cool, fibre-optic cables they are really tiny but there is going to be so much stuff going so many places and in tiny winey little bits of fiber optics....'

....and you know, I thought it was only her tits that were fake.....

Anyway, one thing to be sure, when the bubble in gold eventually pops be it US$2000 or US$5000, it will be the 'real people' who eventually get screwed.

[Naam]

My prediction. I'll see you all back here in 50 years with proof I was correct.

hmmm... you think i will live long enough to celebrate my 116th birthday?

[badge]

What I mean is that I have several financial contracts right now that are denominated in gold. While financial professionals do seem to keep pushing the "it's only a commodity" theory, real people seem to think it is wealth and money.

[...]

XAU is fundamentally no different. My belief that it will continue to strengthen is based on my analysis that people will increasingly demand gold for their transactions, and that this will effect a positive feedback loop where as the popularity grows, even more people will be accepting of its role in commerce.

[...]

Can you offer any examples? Especially those 'contracts' you have denominated in Gold.

Im pretty sure Ive never heard the words 'would you like to pay for that in Gold nuggets'.

[flying]

[

Are you really sure about this?

What I mean is that I have several financial contracts right now that are denominated in gold. While financial professionals do seem to keep pushing the "it's only a commodity" theory, real people seem to think it is wealth and money.

Yes I actually agree with both...l

It is categorized a commodity but has been acting & trading like a currency for some time now.

I would not have as much as I do in both Silver & gold if I did not believe in its potential or did not count it as wealth...As for money I have said many times IMO gold & silver is the only real money & the rest is just currency...But words....

[gregb]

What I mean is that I have several financial contracts right now that are denominated in gold. While financial professionals do seem to keep pushing the "it's only a commodity" theory, real people seem to think it is wealth and money.

[...]

XAU is fundamentally no different. My belief that it will continue to strengthen is based on my analysis that people will increasingly demand gold for their transactions, and that this will effect a positive feedback loop where as the popularity grows, even more people will be accepting of its role in commerce.

[...]

Can you offer any examples? Especially those 'contracts' you have denominated in Gold.

Im pretty sure Ive never heard the words 'would you like to pay for that in Gold nuggets'.

3 private debt instruments. 2 where I am the creditor and 1 where I am the debtor. All interest free but denominated in gold, payable in bullion or cash equivalents. No nuggets, sorry. Better refine those first.

It is very common to denominate property in gold in Vietnam. This will become more popular as international currencies become less and less reliable. This is a movement in its infancy but becoming very popular. I'm not surprised blow up dolls can't explain this to some posters here, as they aren't very smart.

You can always classify anything as a bubble if you take a long enough perspective. Everything crashes eventually. By the same reasoning every currency in existence today is in a bubble. I expect gold to remain one of the strongest currencies for the remainder of my natural life. The run is just getting started. As the industrial economies wane due to the energy crunch and people struggle to meet their debt payments, there is no other currency that will merit the same confidence as gold.

The extremely wealthy can only have so much rice or caviar or other commodities that spoil, and after a certain point yet another car or private jet just becomes another contraption to maintain that you will never use. But the extremely wealthy and central banks will always accept more gold. You can demean it all you want as a yellow rock. You are correct, but it is a universally desired yellow rock.

And they are doing amazing things with longevity treatments these days Naam. Who is to say how long you will be around. If you truly have the kind of resources you imply, you should be wealthy enough to afford them.

[Naam]

And they are doing amazing things with longevity treatments these days Naam.

that longevity can be bought with money is a myth like the myth in which goldbugs believe. people die left and right who have extensive financial means and would consider me a pauper if they knew my financial background.

[Naam]

Are you really sure about this?

What I mean is that I have several financial contracts right now that are denominated in gold. While financial professionals do seem to keep pushing the "it's only a commodity" theory, real people seem to think it is wealth and money.

Yes I actually agree with both...l

It is categorized a commodity but has been acting & trading like a currency for some time now.

I would not have as much as I do in both Silver & gold if I did not believe in its potential or did not count it as wealth...As for money I have said many times IMO gold & silver is the only real money & the rest is just currency...But words....

being a polite man i claim that this is extremely flawed logic Flying! rude french people would call it 'shit de bull' because with that currency you can buy any time (24 hours / 6 days a week) any amount of gold if you have enough of that currency.

and now for the umteenth time: you cannot buy steaks and vegetables in a supermarket paying with gold, you cannot buy rolls or croissants in a bakery paying with gold, you cannot buy a car paying with gold, you cannot buy an airline ticket paying with gold, etc., etc., etcetera^99.

facit: if you can't pay for 99.99% of available goods and services with gold then gold is not money. period!