Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Chunky1]

gold as a currency is crazy.

what is not crazy is the government printing a few trillion dollars and then buying government debt from themselves with it. now that is what we call standard, safe logic pure and simple.

[flying]

I own a lot of SLV silver stock, it is way up. Should I put a 10% trailing stop loss on it, I keep reading how volatile silver is but so far it just keeps going up daily. Your opinions appreciated. [ I kind of hat stop losses since they triggered and the stock went through the roof, like apple, so I want to be careful this time]

my GLD stock and physical gold I will be keeping a while

I would not presume to advise you...I do know what you mean though about tight stop losses

Back when I remember days being swooped in & then a run up but, The peace of mind back then was worth it as the NASDAQ was a crazy place in 99-00

As for your current quandary.. What was your premise when you bought? Has it changed?

[cloudhopper]

From Richard "Dow theory" Russell last night-

"Today I am taking the same stand regarding the gold bull market. The gold bull market will not end with a fizzle and a whimper. It will end with intense speculation and widespread interest from the funds and the public. We haven't seen that kind of activity yet, but I'm convinced that a period of wild speculation in gold lies somewhere ahead.

This is why I continue to beg my subscribers to load up with gold. As I see it, we are nearing a period of intense speculation that will be beyond anything seen before by the last three generations of Americans. Ironically, more money made in the final explosion in gold than was made during the first two phases combined.

Great bull market are seen maybe once or twice in a lifetime. The current "stealth" gold bull market has sneaked up on most Americans. The very phrase, "gold bull market" is sneered at by most analysts today. In fact, most of the comments on gold today come in the form of warnings; "Gold is too high." "Gold is in a bubble." "Gold will sink back below 1000." "Gold is a fool's play."

Nonsense. Gold is moving ever-closer to it's climactic speculative third phase. The negative comments about gold will only serve to make the gold bull market that much stronger. In this business, there is nothing more powerful than a primary bull market that has been denigrated, spat at, and held back for years.

And that's the end of my "lecture" about the fabulous gold bull market…"

[crusader79]

Zulauf on gold and other markets, Oct 16th (MP3 link halfway down on left):

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/10/16_Felix_Zulauf.html

[lannarebirth]

From Richard "Dow theory" Russell last night-

"Today I am taking the same stand regarding the gold bull market. The gold bull market will not end with a fizzle and a whimper. It will end with intense speculation and widespread interest from the funds and the public. We haven't seen that kind of activity yet, but I'm convinced that a period of wild speculation in gold lies somewhere ahead.

This is why I continue to beg my subscribers to load up with gold. As I see it, we are nearing a period of intense speculation that will be beyond anything seen before by the last three generations of Americans. Ironically, more money made in the final explosion in gold than was made during the first two phases combined.

Great bull market are seen maybe once or twice in a lifetime. The current "stealth" gold bull market has sneaked up on most Americans. The very phrase, "gold bull market" is sneered at by most analysts today. In fact, most of the comments on gold today come in the form of warnings; "Gold is too high." "Gold is in a bubble." "Gold will sink back below 1000." "Gold is a fool's play."

Nonsense. Gold is moving ever-closer to it's climactic speculative third phase. The negative comments about gold will only serve to make the gold bull market that much stronger. In this business, there is nothing more powerful than a primary bull market that has been denigrated, spat at, and held back for years.

And that's the end of my "lecture" about the fabulous gold bull market…"

That's a bold call by Mr. Russell, and he may be right. Here's mine: If Russell is right, most every other asset class will bubble as well.

[Naam]

That's a bold call by Mr. Russell, and he may be right. Here's mine: If Russell is right, most every other asset class will bubble as well.

here's mine: nobody became poor by realising profits. sold the mine. should have trusted my belly and sold last friday.

Edited October 18, 2010 by Naam

[Naam]

The gold bull market will not end with a fizzle and a whimper. It will end with intense speculation and widespread interest from the funds and the public. We haven't seen that kind of activity yet, but I'm convinced that a period of wild speculation in gold lies somewhere ahead.

i am a fan of extremely precise forecasts such as "somewhere ahead". what more can we common mortals ask from an expert?

[churchill]

That's a bold call by Mr. Russell, and he may be right. Here's mine: If Russell is right, most every other asset class will bubble as well.

here's mine: nobody became poor by realising profits. sold the mine. should have trusted my belly and sold last friday.

Very wise - always worth releasing some profits , but I don't think the gold run is over nor the USD's decline stopping , but many associate October with crashes and there is always a chance of a stock crash which could hit gold as well - but if one follows trends we should see another spike of $20 or so tomorrow or Wednesday -

"Posted 2010-10-12 17:51

This from http://ftalphaville....lden-shoes-day/

last Tuesday 5th October - Intersting to see what gold prices do today - Prices down at this time to around $1340

and price of gold last Tuesday after above article was published

rose from $1315 to $1344/ "

Last week we got the spike on Wednesday

[Naam]

That's a bold call by Mr. Russell, and he may be right. Here's mine: If Russell is right, most every other asset class will bubble as well.

here's mine: nobody became poor by realising profits. sold the mine. should have trusted my belly and sold last friday.

Very wise - always worth releasing some profits , but I don't think the gold run is over nor the USD's decline stopping...

i fully agree with your opinion "the gold run is not over". but paper gold (mine shares) are easily traded and react (in my case) exponentially to gold price fluctuations. it only takes minutes to buy back and make perhaps a little pocket money.

according to some "anals" we are presently in a situation in which (based on history) the dollar rebounded considerably. how that conforms with the looming QE2 around the corner... is beyond my grasp.

[crusader79]

On a related note:

Aside from precious metals, though, the nightmare scenario is that QE leads to a spike in the price of oil and other commodity imports needed to keep the Western world running - as a result of investors using such assets as an "anti-debasement hedge". There are signs this is starting to happen. If the trend becomes stronger, and speculators pile in via commodity-related price indices and "exchange-traded funds", the result could be a commodity price run-up that shatters the already anaemic Western recovery.

Were that to happen, central banks such as the Fed would huff and puff, spouting populist nonsense about "clamping down on speculation". But the reality is that high, and even spiralling, commodity prices are an absolutely rational response to QE. Such price rises would, in fact, cause a decline in real incomes in the very countries printing the money – seeing as commodities and other tangibles are inputs into the goods and services we buy. These deeply counter-productive QE outcomes could very easily come to pass. Yet across the Western world, among politicians and media commentators, there is barely a whimper of protest about this reckless and unprecedented policy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/8068335/Chinas-not-the-villain-if-the-West-tries-to-debase-its-debt-through-QE.html

[churchill]

To be honest I take charts with a pinch of salt , a guide for some - but I think we can see that there is now more and increasing investment demand for gold and the need for banks - China and all - to get out of USD before it devalues further /

'South Korea, holder of the world’s fifth-biggest foreign exchange reserves, is considering expanding its small holdings of gold to diversify its dollar-heavy portfolio.

Such a move could prove significant to the international gold market as Seoul currently only holds about 14 tonnes of the lustrous metal, equal to just 0.2 per cent of its $290bn reserves at current prices. By contrast, Italy and France each hold just under 2,500 tonnes of gold, amounting to more than 65 per cent of their reserves.

The central bank stressed any moves would have to be “cautious” and “prudent” because gold prices are touching record highs.

Historically, Seoul has favoured Treasury bills over commodities because they are more liquid and can be used as a weapon to control the notoriously volatile won.

However, this reliance on the dollar, which makes up 63 per cent of reserves, has attracted widening criticism in recent years as commodity prices have soared. The rest of Seoul's reserves are in euros, sterling and yen.

Lee Ji-pyeong, senior researcher at the LG Economic Research Institute, said South Korea should have started building up gold stocks last year. Increasing its holdings now would be difficult but worthwhile, he said.

continued .. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/74576bd6-da90-11df-81b0-00144feabdc0.html

[lannarebirth]

according to some "anals" we are presently in a situation in which (based on history) the dollar rebounded considerably. how that conforms with the looming QE2 around the corner... is beyond my grasp.

And it never hurts when it hits the prevailing uptrend line. A buy there gives a pretty high percentage bounce. Here's hoping the rest of this "recognized pattern" doesn't play out.

[Abrak]

Hmmmm....

I wonder what with the risk of deflation and falling prices going on everyone seems so concerned about inflation.

I wish someone would write to the bank of Thailand and tell them how to depreciate their currency without doing anything or spending a cent rather than US$60bn.

And remember Krugman and Roubini who said that it wasn't possible to effect peoples inflation expectations. Bernanke is likely to get a Nobel prize for this stuff. Ramping the stockmarket, gold, crashing the dollar, raising inflation expectations. He must be absolutely pissing himself with laughter at the moment.

Wait until next year for....I have got 10,000 helicopters and unless you spend more and prices go up, I am going to drop US$1trn cash over the US.

I mean achieving negative real rates with low nominal rates is a massive achievement. Last time I believe it needed a world war. All I can say is that you can't bullshit a bullshitter.

[cloudhopper]

Here's mine: If Russell is right, most every other asset class will bubble as well.

That's apparently what the Fed wants.

Some bubbles end worse than others.

[lannarebirth]

Wait until next year for....I have got 10,000 helicopters and unless you spend more and prices go up, I am going to drop US$1trn cash over the US.

I mean achieving negative real rates with low nominal rates is a massive achievement. Last time I believe it needed a world war. All I can say is that you can't bullshit a bullshitter.

I've got a landlocked peat bog I bought at an auction for $1. I was thinking I might have to donate it to a nature conservancy as a "wetland" for a tax write-off. If the helicopters get anywhere in my vicinity I might be willing to start the bidding in the low six figures.

[flying]

And it never hurts when it hits the prevailing uptrend line. A buy there gives a pretty high percentage bounce. Here's hoping the rest

of this "recognized pattern" doesn't play out.

Nice chart & very consistent or "recognized" as you say.

[flying]

here's mine: nobody became poor by realising profits. sold the mine. should have trusted my belly and sold last friday.

Cant fault that when considering the amount you were dealing with.

[Naam]

here's mine: nobody became poor by realising profits. sold the mine. should have trusted my belly and sold last friday.

Cant fault that when considering the amount you were dealing with.

don't overestimate my financial capabilities. the stock i was referring to is quoted in Hong Kong Dollars, i.e. you have to divide by 10.85 respectively 7.76 to arrive at €URos / US-Dollars

[flying]

don't overestimate my financial capabilities. the stock i was referring to is quoted in Hong Kong Dollars, i.e. you have to divide by 10.85 respectively 7.76 to arrive at €URos / US-Dollars

No over estimation in my book.

You bought xxx,xxx shares end of may ....You did very well in any currency

Also I looked at the ROE etc. Nice company

[Bizz]

down for two weeks then up again from 1353 - 1380 that's what god told me

[crusader79]

From Christopher Wood, CLSA (Greed & Fear newsletter):

· The absurdity of quanto easing is clear from the correlated rally in all “risk” assets. The rally in commodity prices will push up input costs and therefore prove deflationary for ordinary people in the West. Indeed it is quite possible that current conditions lead to a repeat of the commodity price-driven phony inflation scare world markets last experienced in 2007 and early 2008.

· Any repeat of such a scare will likely lead to an overshoot in commodity prices driven by financial investors in commodity indices and related “ETPs”, and a resulting violent sell-off. That sell-off will again likely be characterised by a violent rally in the US dollar as the carry trades are liquidated.

· The biggest beneficiary of quanto easing if implemented with ever greater vigour will, obviously, be gold bullion. The only pure way to own bullion is to own the physical metal itself and have it stored in a bank which is both financially secure and based in a jurisdiction which has a history of respecting the sanctity of individual private property. GREED & fear thinks that three jurisdictions look the most attractive. They are Hong Kong, Singapore and Switzerland.

· Owning a gold ETF is not the best way to own gold. In a real panic for gold, which is what will happen if investors finally lose confidence in Western paper money, there will be a demand for physical gold. Those investors who will be best positioned will be those who have the ability to deliver physical gold into the market.

· A strong support level for the US dollar index seems to be the March 2008 low of 70.6, compared with the current level of 76.5. Still the more risk assets rise from here the more they risk discounting more than the Fed is about to deliver in terms of quanto. With the US dollar now clearly the funding currency of choice for speculators, the American currency is likely to rally sharply come the next correction in risk assets.

· With the euro now back at the 1.41 level against the US dollar, GREED & fear would advise the following trade for macro investors. That is to go long gold and short the euro. This is because in the next wave of risk aversion, gold is likely to perform much better than the euro; most particularly if the risk aversion is triggered by events in Euroland.

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=26891444

[churchill]

I remember an exchange with Naam sometime ago about Germany's Gold reserves and all of this is speculation and unbelievable but where there is smoke ..

Currency War: Germany about to lose 66% of its gold reserves

http://www.chaostheorien.de/artikel?p_p_id=101_INSTANCE_haR1&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_state=normal&p_p_mode=view&p_p_col_id=column-3&p_p_col_pos=1&p_p_col_count=2&_101_INSTANCE_haR1_struts_action=%2Fasset_publisher%2Fview_content&_101_INSTANCE_haR1_redirect=%2Fstartseite&_101_INSTANCE_haR1_type=content&_101_INSTANCE_haR1_urlTitle=currency-war-germany-about-to-lose-66-percent-of-its-gold-reserves&page=1

Edited October 19, 2010 by churchill

[lannarebirth]

I remember an exchange with Naam sometime ago about Germany's Gold reserves and all of this is speculation and unbelievable but where there is smoke ..

Currency War: Germany about to lose 66% of its gold reserves

http://www.chaostheo...reserves&page=1

Does this ring any bells for you?

http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/conferences/BFWG_Meeting2/1st%20July/3B_Taffler.pdf

[flying]

And it never hurts when it hits the prevailing uptrend line. A buy there gives a pretty high percentage bounce. Here's hoping the rest of this "recognized pattern" doesn't play out.

[Naam]

I remember an exchange with Naam sometime ago about Germany's Gold reserves and all of this is speculation and unbelievable but where there is smoke ..

Currency War: Germany about to lose 66% of its gold reserves

http://www.chaostheorien.de/artikel?p_p_id=101_INSTANCE_haR1&p_p_lifecycle=0&p_p_state=normal&p_p_mode=view&p_p_col_id=column-3&p_p_col_pos=1&p_p_col_count=2&_101_INSTANCE_haR1_struts_action=%2Fasset_publisher%2Fview_content&_101_INSTANCE_haR1_redirect=%2Fstartseite&_101_INSTANCE_haR1_type=content&_101_INSTANCE_haR1_urlTitle=currency-war-germany-about-to-lose-66-percent-of-its-gold-reserves&page=1

[Naam]

" Owning a gold ETF is not the best way to own gold. In a real panic for gold, which is what will happen if investors finally lose confidence in Western paper money, there will be a demand for physical gold. Those investors who will be best positioned will be those who have the ability to deliver physical gold into the market."

no doubt about that. the real winners will be those who live in Nakhon Nowhere near the laotian border, having access to the Mekong, and are therefore able to ship their physical gold in no time to any place on this planet, respectively to the highest bidder and gladly accept paper money.

but perhaps that's wrong thinking? would anybody sell his/her physical gold when a real panic and a high demand for physical gold prevails? i am referring to people who can think logically and not to some brain-amputated ones.

[JRinger]

" Owning a gold ETF is not the best way to own gold. In a real panic for gold, which is what will happen if investors finally lose confidence in Western paper money, there will be a demand for physical gold. Those investors who will be best positioned will be those who have the ability to deliver physical gold into the market."

no doubt about that. the real winners will be those who live in Nakhon Nowhere near the laotian border, having access to the Mekong, and are therefore able to ship their physical gold in no time to any place on this planet, respectively to the highest bidder and gladly accept paper money.

but perhaps that's wrong thinking? would anybody sell his/her physical gold when a real panic and a high demand for physical gold prevails? i am referring to people who can think logically and not to some brain-amputated ones.

I for one won't listen to your rhetoric. A few years back when gold was around $700/oz you argued "gold will never go anywhere".

[Naam]

I for one won't listen to your rhetoric.

your wisdom does hurt although it is completely irrelevant as far as my posting is concerned i am thinking of comitting suicide. perhaps buy a rope and shoot myself.

[craigt3365]

the simple explanation is: Gold has NO intrinsic value (as the goldbugs claim). actually nothing exists which has intrinsic value if there is no demand. stranded on an uninhabitated island the demand for Gold is ZERO. on this island the art of hunting and fishing as well as the knowledge of a source with drinkable water is a zillion times superior in intrinsic values than tons of Gold

Seems the Oracle of Omaha agrees with you. Here's his quote from an article today:

"You could take all the gold that's ever been mined, and it would fill a cube 67 feet in each direction. For what that's worth at current gold prices, you could buy all -- not some -- all of the farmland in the United States. Plus, you could buy 10 Exxon Mobils, plus have $1 trillion of walking-around money. Or you could have a big cube of metal. Which would you take? Which is going to produce more value?"

http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/18/pf/investing/buffett_ben_stein.fortune/index.htm

[crusader79]

" Owning a gold ETF is not the best way to own gold. In a real panic for gold, which is what will happen if investors finally lose confidence in Western paper money, there will be a demand for physical gold. Those investors who will be best positioned will be those who have the ability to deliver physical gold into the market."

no doubt about that. the real winners will be those who live in Nakhon Nowhere near the laotian border, having access to the Mekong, and are therefore able to ship their physical gold in no time to any place on this planet, respectively to the highest bidder and gladly accept paper money.

but perhaps that's wrong thinking? would anybody sell his/her physical gold when a real panic and a high demand for physical gold prevails? i am referring to people who can think logically and not to some brain-amputated ones.

The great gold bull will eventually turn into the great gold bubble and end like every other. Investors who sell into the final panic can make fortunes.

That being said, I expect the end game to be exceptionally wild, since unlike the other financial bubbles we have experienced in our lifetimes, the gold blowoff looks more and more likely to be accompanied by a catastrophic reset of the system, with massive government interference, and fear and confusion all around.

So even those who’ve guessed right on gold will have to be extraordinarily nimble in order to fully realize and bank their gains. That’s why I participate in forums like this one, looking for end game ideas from like-minded investors.