Bot Chief Warns Of Spread Of Financial Crisis To Thailand

george · October 18, 2008

BoT chief warns of spread of financial crisis to Thailand

BANGKOK: -- Bank of Thailand (BoT) Governor Tarisa Watanagas on Friday indicated the overall Thai economy and loan extension would grow at a slower pace next year because the global financial crisis is expected to spread to Thailand.

She said the world financial meltdown would definitely affect the Thai economy sooner or later.

A close watch on the situation must be kept because no one dared project the direction of the crisis. Mrs. Tarisa indicated.

However, she revealed the economy had still expanded rather satisfactorily.

"The financial crisis is expected to gradually affect the economy. Next year, the impacts will be more severe than this year," she advised.

"With economic sluggishness, everyone must adjust oneself. Exporters in particular must brace for the volatility of the global financial crisis and economic slowdown of trading partners.

Thailand must increase local demand and restore confidence for the sake of economic growth, she explained.

Mrs. Tarisa said that employment in Thailand had not yet been affected by the global financial crisis.

Overall, incomes earned by workers had not fallen to a worrisome level. The number of jobless is smaller than that of other countries affected by the bubble burst.

While the asset value of the affected countries had dropped, that of Thailand had not.

The key to solving the problem, she suggested, is to restore confidence so that the public would turn to spend more.

Regarding liquidity in the financial system, the BoT chief said it is sufficient to lending to the country's economic sector.

She conceded some banks are reluctant to lend under the current economic slowdown situation as reported because they had to be more careful regarding extending loans.

-- TNA 2008-10-18

tijnebijn · October 18, 2008

So now its time to cut interest rates , and not to intervene in the exchange rate please .

Seneque · October 18, 2008

Exporters in particular must brace for the volatility of the global financial crisis and economic slowdown of trading partners.

Exporters are ready to 'brace for' whatever ... but how about giving them (and the tourism industry) a boost with a 'hands-off' systematic intervention on the currency ...

Naam · October 18, 2008

So now its time to cut interest rates , and not to intervene in the exchange rate please .

basically i agree but the BOT is between a rock and a hard place. inflation in Thailand is rampant. we expatriates, having an income unheard of by Somchai Rungnapawattanapornthip living in Nakhon Nowhere, might feel a slight pinch or no pinch at all. but Somchai feels it and Mrs. Somchai feels it as well when she goes to the market shopping food to feed her family.

phaethon · October 18, 2008

So now its time to cut interest rates , and not to intervene in the exchange rate please .

Yes! BOT - Kindly stop f*@%ing with my holiday money!

Edited October 18, 2008 by phaethon

ratcatcher · October 18, 2008

So now its time to cut interest rates , and not to intervene in the exchange rate please .

basically i agree but the BOT is between a rock and a hard place. inflation in Thailand is rampant. we expatriates, having an income unheard of by Somchai Rungnapawattanapornthip living in Nakhon Nowhere, might feel a slight pinch or no pinch at all. but Somchai feels it and Mrs. Somchai feels it as well when she goes to the market shopping food to feed her family.

Naam, if Somchai & Tingtong Rungnapawattanapornthip are feeling the pinch, how come I see so many of their ilk flashing around in brand new Vigos and Tritons?

Where do you feel the baht should realistically be at if it wasn't for B.O.T. meddling?

After all, the U.S.$ has dropped less against the baht than say the Canadian, Australian, N.Z. & U.K. pound sterling.

At least it seems that way.

Gravelrash · October 18, 2008

So now its time to cut interest rates , and not to intervene in the exchange rate please .

Yes! BOT - Kindly stop f*@%ing with my holiday money!

No doubt this is foremost in BOT's thinking, suspect many here will sleep poorly tonight with this tragedy weighing heavy on their thoughts.

phaethon · October 18, 2008

Too right! Acting as if they own the place of something...

(actually, it just occurred to me that they may be keeping the currency to favour imports in case they suddenly have to buy a whole bunch of amaments... )

Edited October 18, 2008 by phaethon

Ricardo · October 18, 2008

BoT chief warns of spread of financial crisis to Thailand
BANGKOK: -- Bank of Thailand (BoT) Governor Tarisa Watanagas on Friday indicated the overall Thai economy and loan extension would grow at a slower pace next year because the global financial crisis is expected to spread to Thailand.

She said the world financial meltdown would definitely affect the Thai economy sooner or later.

Finally a poo-yai admits, what we farangs have been saying, for some time !

A close watch on the situation must be kept because no one dared project the direction of the crisis. Mrs. Tarisa indicated.

The BoT Governor believes, there is any chance, that things might get better ?

However, she revealed the economy had still expanded rather satisfactorily.

"The financial crisis is expected to gradually affect the economy. Next year, the impacts will be more severe than this year," she advised.

"With economic sluggishness, everyone must adjust oneself. Exporters in particular must brace for the volatility of the global financial crisis and economic slowdown of trading partners.

Understatement of the Year ? !

Thailand must increase local demand and restore confidence for the sake of economic growth, she explained.

Which is why we shall not cut interest-rates, although the rest of the world is, let's try a Thaksinomics-style government spending-spree instead ? Erm ... where is the money to do this going to come from ?

Mrs. Tarisa said that employment in Thailand had not yet been affected by the global financial crisis.

Oh Yes It Has ! Oh No It Hasn't ! etcetera ... How many do One-Two-Go or Nok-Air now employ, compared to a year ago, for example ?

Overall, incomes earned by workers had not fallen to a worrisome level. The number of jobless is smaller than that of other countries affected by the bubble burst.

While the asset value of the affected countries had dropped, that of Thailand had not.

Translation : My moo-ban house or condo, is still worth what I dreamt it was last year, it must be I hope, erm ... but I haven't yet managed to sell it, must keep the Baht strong, while my friends get their money out ... erm orders from the Boss in Kensington !

The key to solving the problem, she suggested, is to restore confidence so that the public would turn to spend more.

Regarding liquidity in the financial system, the BoT chief said it is sufficient to lending to the country's economic sector.

There's a global crash under-way, the SET has crashed, but all of you just keep spending on Chang, and maybe you won't notice how the cost of everything is soaring, and it will turn out to be a bad dream !

She conceded some banks are reluctant to lend under the current economic slowdown situation as reported because they had to be more careful regarding extending loans.

Blame the banks, it's all their fault, not mine !

-- TNA 2008-10-18

(my comments in red)

Read my lips ... De Nile is Not a River in Egypt , well actually it is but, you get the message!

Naam · October 18, 2008

So now its time to cut interest rates , and not to intervene in the exchange rate please .

basically i agree but the BOT is between a rock and a hard place. inflation in Thailand is rampant. we expatriates, having an income unheard of by Somchai Rungnapawattanapornthip living in Nakhon Nowhere, might feel a slight pinch or no pinch at all. but Somchai feels it and Mrs. Somchai feels it as well when she goes to the market shopping food to feed her family.

1. Naam, if Somchai & Tingtong Rungnapawattanapornthip are feeling the pinch, how come I see so many of their ilk flashing around in brand new Vigos and Tritons?

2. Where do you feel the baht should realistically be at if it wasn't for B.O.T. meddling?

3. After all, the U.S.$ has dropped less against the baht than say the Canadian, Australian, N.Z. & U.K. pound sterling. At least it seems that way.

1. you see only a limited number of Somchais in their financed cars and overlook the masses.

2. shooting from the hip i'd say 40-42.

3. i assume you meant the Baht has dropped less against USD. that's correct and the only logical explanation is that the BOT intervenes heavily EACH and EVERY DAY. the problem for those who hope for a lower Baht (i wouldn't mind that too!) is that the BOT has accumulated a huge pile of ammunition enabling it to prop up a "side note" currency like the Baht for quite some time. any central bank of any major currency would run out of cash in a week or two doing what the BOT has done for more than a month and is still doing.

all aforesaid of course is based as usual on my [not so] humble personal opinion

Naam · October 18, 2008

BoT chief warns of spread of financial crisis to Thailand
BANGKOK: -- Bank of Thailand (BoT) Governor Tarisa Watanagas on Friday indicated the overall Thai economy and loan extension would grow at a slower pace next year because the global financial crisis is expected to spread to Thailand.

She said the world financial meltdown would definitely affect the Thai economy sooner or later.

Finally a poo-yai admits, what we farangs have been saying, for some time !

A close watch on the situation must be kept because no one dared project the direction of the crisis. Mrs. Tarisa indicated.

The BoT Governor believes, there is any chance, that things might get better ?

However, she revealed the economy had still expanded rather satisfactorily.

"The financial crisis is expected to gradually affect the economy. Next year, the impacts will be more severe than this year," she advised.

"With economic sluggishness, everyone must adjust oneself. Exporters in particular must brace for the volatility of the global financial crisis and economic slowdown of trading partners.

Understatement of the Year ? !

Thailand must increase local demand and restore confidence for the sake of economic growth, she explained.

Which is why we shall not cut interest-rates, although the rest of the world is, let's try a Thaksinomics-style government spending-spree instead ? Erm ... where is the money to do this going to come from ?

Mrs. Tarisa said that employment in Thailand had not yet been affected by the global financial crisis.

Oh Yes It Has ! Oh No It Hasn't ! etcetera ... How many do One-Two-Go or Nok-Air now employ, compared to a year ago, for example ?

Overall, incomes earned by workers had not fallen to a worrisome level. The number of jobless is smaller than that of other countries affected by the bubble burst.

While the asset value of the affected countries had dropped, that of Thailand had not.

Translation : My moo-ban house or condo, is still worth what I dreamt it was last year, it must be I hope, erm ... but I haven't yet managed to sell it, must keep the Baht strong, while my friends get their money out ... erm orders from the Boss in Kensington !

The key to solving the problem, she suggested, is to restore confidence so that the public would turn to spend more.

Regarding liquidity in the financial system, the BoT chief said it is sufficient to lending to the country's economic sector.

There's a global crash under-way, the SET has crashed, but all of you just keep spending on Chang, and maybe you won't notice how the cost of everything is soaring, and it will turn out to be a bad dream !

She conceded some banks are reluctant to lend under the current economic slowdown situation as reported because they had to be more careful regarding extending loans.

Blame the banks, it's all their fault, not mine !

-- TNA 2008-10-18

(my comments in red)

Read my lips ... De Nile is Not a River in Egypt , well actually it is but, you get the message!

what message? did you mention anything that we didn't know already?

Ricardo · October 18, 2008

I was attempting to highlight some of the things that the Governor of the BoT doesn't appear to know :-

1. That jobs are indeed being lost as a result of the crash.

2. That holding interest-rates higher reduces domestic demand.

3. That the SET-crash reduces the value of the assets of held by investment-trusts & pension-funds & individual investors.

4. That levels of consumption are not effected by falling incomes.

5. That maintaining an over-strong Baht will harm exports & tourism.

But I was interested to see your view of where the baht should be, against the dollar. Do you have any view how long the BoT might continue a strong-baht policy ?

henryalleman · October 18, 2008

I'm not an economist thats why there are some things I din't understand?

The political situation is unstable, and there is an armed borderconflict going on. But in 4 weeks the EURO lost 18% of his value in 4 weeks time against the Baht.

When I strawling around in any shoppingcenter nation wide I see a lot of people in every bank btanch to aplky for a loan.

When I see tha recnet real estate projects

henryalleman · October 18, 2008

I'm not an economist thats why their are some things I don't understand.

The political situation is unstable, and their is an armed border conflict going on. But in 4 weeks the EURO lost 18% of his value in 4 weeks time against the Baht.

When I strawling around in any shoppingcenter nation wide I see a lot of people in every bank branch to apply for a loan. And that in some Centrals, Robinsons and others there are more staff than buying clients.

When I visit the website of the national statistics office I see an enormous growth of debt in civil servants households.

When I see that recent build real estate projects are empty, the same go's for new build hotels who have a low occupation level. But they still going on building new ones.

How all of them pay their loans back.

Some airlines cut back their flights to Thailand.

I do wonder how the Thai Baht still keep strong, and the government said that the worldwide financial crisis has no effect on the Thai economy, or is it just a bubble who will explode very soon?

Are there some economists in this forum who can explaine this to me.

LaoPo · October 18, 2008

I'm not an economist thats why their are some things I don't understand.
The political situation is unstable, and their is an armed border conflict going on. But in 4 weeks the EURO lost 18% of his value in 4 weeks time against the Baht.

When I strawling around in any shoppingcenter nation wide I see a lot of people in every bank branch to apply for a loan. And that in some Centrals, Robinsons and others there are more staff than buying clients.

When I visit the website of the national statistics office I see an enormous growth of debt in civil servants households.

When I see that recent build real estate projects are empty, the same go's for new build hotels who have a low occupation level. But they still going on building new ones.

How all of them pay their loans back.

Some airlines cut back their flights to Thailand.

I do wonder how the Thai Baht still keep strong, and the government said that the worldwide financial crisis has no effect on the Thai economy, or is it just a bubble who will explode very soon?

Are there some economists in this forum who can explaine this to me.

Naam already explained the problems and causes in #10.

The major problem is that there are no US dollars anymore....the dollar became so expensive in a very short period because un-imaginable amounts of money are needed...NOW....and the money isn't/wasn't there because that money was and is locked up in assets which are hard to sell, where ever and whatever and at bottom prices; and they don't care about what price they get...they need the bloody dollars !

That's why all other currencies are going down.

The amounts needed are needed because insurers, banks, financials, hedge funds...you name them, have GIGANTIC obligations, debts and interests to pay for because of the enormous losses they made due to the subprime crisis and the nicely invented products, bundled by the criminal bankers/financiers and sold to ignorant bankers elsewhere who didn't know <deleted> about WHAT THE HECK they were buying...stamped A+ - AA or even tripe AAA by those nice guys of the PRIVATE rating agencies in the US like Moody's...

Adding to this problem is the INTER-banking crisis, meaning that banks do not trust each other anymore and I mean Bank A in Japan or Germany or America wants to loan to Bank B and C in South Africa or France...or the US.....

BUT, the Bank in Japan (or any other country) has NO BLOODY IDEA if the bank in that country is safe (anymore).....is able to pay them back...on time...with interest. They don't trust the balance sheets anymore.....the bookkeepers.....are they telling the truth ?

There you go.

An extremely dangerous Perpetuum Mobile has been invented because the banks can't get any money and thus they can't lend anymore to their clients.

BANG...end of economy story.

As for Thailand: Thailand is, as far as we know (at this moment) relatively safe since those bad and lousy subprime products passed the doors of Thai banks, simply because the Thai banks didn't buy them or little as they didn't know <deleted> what those products were all about.

However, there is not a single country able to escape the downfall from this world wide crisis as the economy of all countries will be hurt, one more than the other.

Exports will be severely hurt; tourism will be hurt; the service industry; manufacturing, agricultural...everything will be severely hit.

Like Naam mentioned already it is strange and vague why the BoT is intervening so heavily to support the Baht and I don't understand because against these enormous powers not a single Central Bank will be able to fight.

Let it go, but who am I ?

LaoPo

henryalleman · October 18, 2008

I'm not an economist thats why their are some things I don't understand.
The political situation is unstable, and their is an armed border conflict going on. But in 4 weeks the EURO lost 18% of his value in 4 weeks time against the Baht.

When I strawling around in any shoppingcenter nation wide I see a lot of people in every bank branch to apply for a loan. And that in some Centrals, Robinsons and others there are more staff than buying clients.

When I visit the website of the national statistics office I see an enormous growth of debt in civil servants households.

When I see that recent build real estate projects are empty, the same go's for new build hotels who have a low occupation level. But they still going on building new ones.

How all of them pay their loans back.

Some airlines cut back their flights to Thailand.

I do wonder how the Thai Baht still keep strong, and the government said that the worldwide financial crisis has no effect on the Thai economy, or is it just a bubble who will explode very soon?

Are there some economists in this forum who can explaine this to me.

Naam already explained the problems and causes in #10.

The major problem is that there are no US dollars anymore....the dollar became so expensive in a very short period because un-imaginable amounts of money are needed...NOW....and the money isn't/wasn't there because that money was and is locked up in assets which are hard to sell, where ever and whatever and at bottom prices; and they don't care about what price they get...they need the bloody dollars !

That's why all other currencies are going down.

The amounts needed are needed because insurers, banks, financials, hedge funds...you name them, have GIGANTIC obligations, debts and interests to pay for because of the enormous losses they made due to the subprime crisis and the nicely invented products, bundled by the criminal bankers/financiers and sold to ignorant bankers elsewhere who didn't know <deleted> about WHAT THE HECK they were buying...stamped A+ - AA or even tripe AAA by those nice guys of the PRIVATE rating agencies in the US like Moody's...

Adding to this problem is the INTER-banking crisis, meaning that banks do not trust each other anymore and I mean Bank A in Japan or Germany or America wants to loan to Bank B and C in South Africa or France...or the US.....

BUT, the Bank in Japan (or any other country) has NO BLOODY IDEA if the bank in that country is safe (anymore).....is able to pay them back...on time...with interest. They don't trust the balance sheets anymore.....the bookkeepers.....are they telling the truth ?

There you go.

An extremely dangerous Perpetuum Mobile has been invented because the banks can't get any money and thus they can't lend anymore to their clients.

BANG...end of economy story.

As for Thailand: Thailand is, as far as we know (at this moment) relatively safe since those bad and lousy subprime products passed the doors of Thai banks, simply because the Thai banks didn't buy them or little as they didn't know <deleted> what those products were all about.

However, there is not a single country able to escape the downfall from this world wide crisis as the economy of all countries will be hurt, one more than the other.

Exports will be severely hurt; tourism will be hurt; the service industry; manufacturing, agricultural...everything will be severely hit.

Like Naam mentioned already it is strange and vague why the BoT is intervening so heavily to support the Baht and I don't understand because against these enormous powers not a single Central Bank will be able to fight.

Let it go, but who am I ?

LaoPo

LaoPo,

I do understand the reasons for worldwide financial crisis orgininated due to junk loans and overspending of the US public and government.

I just don't understand for all the reasons I mentioned in my topic why its seems that Thailand is not hurt by it.

Artisi · October 18, 2008

The Kensington kid is more than likely influencing his paid staff to manipulate where /when ever they can.

LaoPo · October 18, 2008

LaoPo,
I do understand the reasons for worldwide financial crisis orgininated due to junk loans and overspending of the US public and government.

I just don't understand for all the reasons I mentioned in my topic why its seems that Thailand is not hurt by it.

....yet.

The banks/financials/insurers/pension funds and the like haven't been infected as they probably didn't buy those junk loans, leaving them with heavy losses and write off's.

In the end however Thailand can't escape from the turmoil but hopefully it won't be as bad as for other countries.

LaoPo

henryalleman · October 18, 2008

I'm not an economist thats why their are some things I don't understand.
The political situation is unstable, and their is an armed border conflict going on. But in 4 weeks the EURO lost 18% of his value in 4 weeks time against the Baht.

When I strawling around in any shoppingcenter nation wide I see a lot of people in every bank branch to apply for a loan. And that in some Centrals, Robinsons and others there are more staff than buying clients.

When I visit the website of the national statistics office I see an enormous growth of debt in civil servants households.

When I see that recent build real estate projects are empty, the same go's for new build hotels who have a low occupation level. But they still going on building new ones.

How all of them pay their loans back.

Some airlines cut back their flights to Thailand.

I do wonder how the Thai Baht still keep strong, and the government said that the worldwide financial crisis has no effect on the Thai economy, or is it just a bubble who will explode very soon?

Are there some economists in this forum who can explaine this to me.

Naam already explained the problems and causes in #10.

The major problem is that there are no US dollars anymore....the dollar became so expensive in a very short period because un-imaginable amounts of money are needed...NOW....and the money isn't/wasn't there because that money was and is locked up in assets which are hard to sell, where ever and whatever and at bottom prices; and they don't care about what price they get...they need the bloody dollars !

That's why all other currencies are going down.

The amounts needed are needed because insurers, banks, financials, hedge funds...you name them, have GIGANTIC obligations, debts and interests to pay for because of the enormous losses they made due to the subprime crisis and the nicely invented products, bundled by the criminal bankers/financiers and sold to ignorant bankers elsewhere who didn't know <deleted> about WHAT THE HECK they were buying...stamped A+ - AA or even tripe AAA by those nice guys of the PRIVATE rating agencies in the US like Moody's...

Adding to this problem is the INTER-banking crisis, meaning that banks do not trust each other anymore and I mean Bank A in Japan or Germany or America wants to loan to Bank B and C in South Africa or France...or the US.....

BUT, the Bank in Japan (or any other country) has NO BLOODY IDEA if the bank in that country is safe (anymore).....is able to pay them back...on time...with interest. They don't trust the balance sheets anymore.....the bookkeepers.....are they telling the truth ?

There you go.

An extremely dangerous Perpetuum Mobile has been invented because the banks can't get any money and thus they can't lend anymore to their clients.

BANG...end of economy story.

As for Thailand: Thailand is, as far as we know (at this moment) relatively safe since those bad and lousy subprime products passed the doors of Thai banks, simply because the Thai banks didn't buy them or little as they didn't know <deleted> what those products were all about.

However, there is not a single country able to escape the downfall from this world wide crisis as the economy of all countries will be hurt, one more than the other.

Exports will be severely hurt; tourism will be hurt; the service industry; manufacturing, agricultural...everything will be severely hit.

Like Naam mentioned already it is strange and vague why the BoT is intervening so heavily to support the Baht and I don't understand because against these enormous powers not a single Central Bank will be able to fight.

Let it go, but who am I ?

LaoPo

LaoPo,

I do understand the reasons for worldwide financial crisis orgininated due to junk loans and overspending of the US public and government.

I just don't understand for all the reasons I mentioned in my topic why its seems that Thailand is not hurt by it.

and why the falling domino stones seems to stop at the thai border

Martin · October 19, 2008

'LaoPo' said, in post #18:

"In the end however Thailand can't escape from the turmoil but hopefully it won't be as bad as for other countries."

Agreed.

In early 2006, I had to think through the effects of this scenario should it occur, when I was doing an essay on "My community (which is a 'ban nork' moo baan) in thirty years time". It became the starting point of a major part of my MA thesis.

Anybody who wants a copy of a Journal article that I subsequently published, summarising the MA thesis, can PM me.

Basically, my consideration of the possibility led me to an optimistic scenario of Thailand's manufacturing/agricultural/ tourism employment split of 30%-60%-10% changing to 8%-90%-2%.

Like LaoPo's 'hopefully', so is my 'optimistic'.

Please stick to working towards that 'best case' outcome. Don't start looking at the more pessimistic possibilities. Economic recession is bad enough to be having to cope with. We don't want psychological depression on top of it.

Martin · October 19, 2008

'henryalleman' says, in post # 19 that he doesn't understand "....why the falling domino stones seems to stop at the thai border".

I would suggest that it is because Thailand is known to be 'The Rice-Bowl of Asia'.

Singapore, for instance, has to buy Thai rice every month, or else its people will starve next month.

So the Thai economy has a fundamental strength in that its own people are fed from its produce and it has surplus upon which mouths elsewhere depend.

Twenty years ago, I was chatting with a Singapore Cabinet Minister about Brunei (from which I had just come). I mentioned that the Brunei Government had given up trying to raise beef cattle in Brunei and, to ensure beef supplies, had bought a beef ranch in Australia instead. The ranch was bigger than the whole of Brunei.

That Cabinet Minister said: "Oh, that we could buy paddy fields in Thailand, bigger than Singapore. The Republic of Singapore has the money; but no way will the Monarchy of Thailand sell us the land. Someday we may be held to ransom".

'Nuff said?

henryalleman · October 19, 2008

'henryalleman' says, in post # 19 that he doesn't understand "....why the falling domino stones seems to stop at the thai border".
I would suggest that it is because Thailand is known to be 'The Rice-Bowl of Asia'.

Singapore, for instance, has to buy Thai rice every month, or else its people will starve next month.

So the Thai economy has a fundamental strength in that its own people are fed from its produce and it has surplus upon which mouths elsewhere depend.

Twenty years ago, I was chatting with a Singapore Cabinet Minister about Brunei (from which I had just come). I mentioned that the Brunei Government had given up trying to raise beef cattle in Brunei and, to ensure beef supplies, had bought a beef ranch in Australia instead. The ranch was bigger than the whole of Brunei.

That Cabinet Minister said: "Oh, that we could buy paddy fields in Thailand, bigger than Singapore. The Republic of Singapore has the money; but no way will the Monarchy of Thailand sell us the land. Someday we may be held to ransom".

'Nuff said?

Correct Martin, Thailand is responsible for 45% of the global export, but I have only one remark.

Why the common Thai rice farmers are so poor than?

henryalleman · October 19, 2008

'henryalleman' says, in post # 19 that he doesn't understand "....why the falling domino stones seems to stop at the thai border".
I would suggest that it is because Thailand is known to be 'The Rice-Bowl of Asia'.

Singapore, for instance, has to buy Thai rice every month, or else its people will starve next month.

So the Thai economy has a fundamental strength in that its own people are fed from its produce and it has surplus upon which mouths elsewhere depend.

Twenty years ago, I was chatting with a Singapore Cabinet Minister about Brunei (from which I had just come). I mentioned that the Brunei Government had given up trying to raise beef cattle in Brunei and, to ensure beef supplies, had bought a beef ranch in Australia instead. The ranch was bigger than the whole of Brunei.

That Cabinet Minister said: "Oh, that we could buy paddy fields in Thailand, bigger than Singapore. The Republic of Singapore has the money; but no way will the Monarchy of Thailand sell us the land. Someday we may be held to ransom".

'Nuff said?

Correct Martin, Thailand is responsible for 45% of the global export, but I have only one remark.

Why the common Thai rice farmers are so poor than?

They feed the world, but hardly can feed themselves and over their ears in debt.

Drafi · October 19, 2008

BoT chief warns of spread of financial crisis to Thailand
BANGKOK: -- Bank of Thailand (BoT) Governor Tarisa Watanagas on Friday indicated the overall Thai economy and loan extension would grow at a slower pace next year because the global financial crisis is expected to spread to Thailand.

She said the world financial meltdown would definitely affect the Thai economy sooner or later.

A close watch on the situation must be kept because no one dared project the direction of the crisis. Mrs. Tarisa indicated.

However, she revealed the economy had still expanded rather satisfactorily.

"The financial crisis is expected to gradually affect the economy. Next year, the impacts will be more severe than this year," she advised.

"With economic sluggishness, everyone must adjust oneself. Exporters in particular must brace for the volatility of the global financial crisis and economic slowdown of trading partners.

Thailand must increase local demand and restore confidence for the sake of economic growth, she explained.

Mrs. Tarisa said that employment in Thailand had not yet been affected by the global financial crisis.

Overall, incomes earned by workers had not fallen to a worrisome level. The number of jobless is smaller than that of other countries affected by the bubble burst.

While the asset value of the affected countries had dropped, that of Thailand had not.

The key to solving the problem, she suggested, is to restore confidence so that the public would turn to spend more.

Regarding liquidity in the financial system, the BoT chief said it is sufficient to lending to the country's economic sector.

She conceded some banks are reluctant to lend under the current economic slowdown situation as reported because they had to be more careful regarding extending loans.

-- TNA 2008-10-18

Thailand will definitely be affected because the financial crisis is far bigger and will last longer than most might assume. No one has looked deeper onto the market for so called Credit default swaps. They are spread all over the world. And they are imploding right now. Someone will have to pay the bills. Search for the article from 17. october at the skynews.com homepage called "CDS: Markets' Hidden World War'

The Central Banks cannot do anything about it. Their bailout scheme will be completely useless because there are too huge sums of money involved. Money that doesn't exist and that can't possibly be created:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/laird101608.html

iforget · October 19, 2008

<quote>Thailand will definitely be affected because the financial crisis is far bigger and will last longer than most might assume. No one has looked deeper onto the market for so called Credit default swaps. They are spread all over the world. And they are imploding right now. Someone will have to pay the bills. Search for the article from 17. october at the skynews.com homepage called "CDS: Markets' Hidden World War'

The Central Banks cannot do anything about it. Their bailout scheme will be completely useless because there are too huge sums of money involved. Money that doesn't exist and that can't possibly be created:</quote>

Correct. But why is everyone talking about the banks? The "real" economy - the high street - is going to implode. Banks stop lending (remember 97 in Thailand?). Every corporation goes into "cash preservation" mode (Check with Laguna in Phuket, for example). Classic trickle-down from there, exaggerated in Thailand by:

1. Insurance companies in the West go into a blue funk and stop insuring travellers/tourists in order to concentrate on sectors that will pay premiums and never claim (eg, bankers who have already jumped out of windows). End of package tour business (a huge chunk of Thailand's income, in case you hadn't noticed).

2. Other potential tourists cancel Thailand and heading for Bognor Regis, the Gold Coast or Spain - or, more likely, stay home saving their pennies.

3. This is aggravated by lack of leadership in Thailand - insurance companies, banks, airlines, tour companies playing safe cos Somchai's concentrating on staying in power so he can dick around with the constitution, pass Go and collect 200m. Poor risk, as far as everyone is concerned.

4. A couple of Thai banks go bust but the government takes no notice cos it's deep min negotiations to buy more of those really good tear gas rounds from China. Cambodia seizes half of Isan but Bangkok doesn't notice and although Sonthi screams blue murder, he's secretly happy cos that means a lot less voters whi can be bought by SquareFace.

5. No tourists, so property business slides, aggravated by banks deciding that lending for second homes is not a good idea right now and for the foreseeable future.

5. Formula One consists of just two cars - Lewis vs Felipe - and they are worrying about their sponsorship and when it will be cancelled like everyone else's.

6. Rubber exports are screwed by the falling price of oil, resulting in less demand and cheaper rubber substitutes. This has already happened. The only hope for the industry lies in the rubber workers themselves whose TVs have been repossessed, and who therefore have nothing to do at night but... You get the idea.

7. Rice farmers are better off than most cos at least they have something to eat.

Now, I have five caves with 50 cal machineguns mounted in the entrance of each, manned by well fed rice farmers with lots of ammo (all from China, of course). Okay, so the caves are stocked with Mali condensed milk, but no-one's perfect.

They've all got sea views. naturally. Offers should be submitted ASAP.

Oh yes. Gold bars only, please.

iforget · October 19, 2008