Any Aussies Feeling The Pinch In Chiang Mai

[McLovin]

I know most currencies are getting a beating at the moment (pound, euro etc) but would like to know what fellow Aussies in CM think about the massive AUD freefall.

Back in mid July I got 32.8THB to the AUD. Today, it is trading at 20.8THB, down almost 37% in four months.

Does anyone have views on where it will end?

Also can someone tell me how the THB is maintaining its strength during the world financial crisis.

McLovin

[wadsy]

I feel for you and other aussies over there atm. My wife and I HAD to come back here in NSW in Dec last year and we brought some cash back with us and got 31 something baht to the dollar and as you said, its low 20's now. A few of my Oz friends in CM will be hurtin pretty badly as I know they rely on money transfers to live on. One mate last week even lamented that he might have to come home as the cash isn't going as near as far as he thought it would. And on top of the exchange rate/financial crisis my wife's sister said that everything (foodwise) has gone up dramatically since we came back! Not a good omen.................................

[McLovin]

I feel for you and other aussies over there atm. My wife and I HAD to come back here in NSW in Dec last year and we brought some cash back with us and got 31 something baht to the dollar and as you said, its low 20's now. A few of my Oz friends in CM will be hurtin pretty badly as I know they rely on money transfers to live on. One mate last week even lamented that he might have to come home as the cash isn't going as near as far as he thought it would. And on top of the exchange rate/financial crisis my wife's sister said that everything (foodwise) has gone up dramatically since we came back! Not a good omen.................................

Thanks Wadsy,

I am sure many are feeling the pinch, and not just the aussies.

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

I know most currencies are getting a beating at the moment (pound, euro etc) but would like to know what fellow Aussies in CM think about the massive AUD freefall.

Back in mid July I got 32.8THB to the AUD. Today, it is trading at 20.8THB, down almost 37% in four months.

Does anyone have views on where it will end?

Also can someone tell me how the THB is maintaining its strength during the world financial crisis.

McLovin

Not sure where it ends versus the baht but I have read some large banks mentioning .45 versus the USD. Not an Aussie myself but a currency trader of moderate skill.

Just matter of time until the moderators step on this thread for not being in Economy forum.

THB is a managed or floating peg currency so not free market. Also the THB was not a high yielding currency so was not wound up in the carry trade like the AUD or NZD. The AUD and NZD were artificially high because of cheap Yen and $'s seeking higher returns. Could be a while before the carry trades come back in force.

Wanted to respond because McLovin is a great handle!!

[Will27]

I'm hearing you mate.

I only arrived just over a month ago.

I hope to stay for 12 to 18 months with

a view of possibly making it permanent.

I budgeted on 25/26 Baht to the dollar but

it has really died in the arse.

I'm on a fixed income while I'm here but it's

still a big drop. Always have the credit cards

to fall back on if I have to but at least it will

tell me what I actually do need to live here

full time.

As they say about everything, it's all about

timing.

Still, we're both enjoying it here so far.

Regards

Will

[dingdongrb]

I know most currencies are getting a beating at the moment

My 401K has taken a beating since the markets are tumbling but as for the currency I use, I kind of like where it's heading.....

[Sathip2008]

I've got absolutely no idea when and where this financial turmoil is going to end ? I just wanted to say, for our Aussie and Kiwis friends who rely on their $$$ (pension or others) and who live in CM or LOS, that I hope their currency will recover very soon. 37% down in 4 months, it sucks

[McLovin]

I'm hearing you mate.

I only arrived just over a month ago.

I hope to stay for 12 to 18 months with

a view of possibly making it permanent.

I budgeted on 25/26 Baht to the dollar but

it has really died in the arse.

I'm on a fixed income while I'm here but it's

still a big drop. Always have the credit cards

to fall back on if I have to but at least it will

tell me what I actually do need to live here

full time.

As they say about everything, it's all about

timing.

Still, we're both enjoying it here so far.

Regards

Will

Thanks.

When it dropped under 30 a few months ago, I did my long term budget on it being 25. I figured back then that there would be no way it would get that low. Oh Boy how wrong was I. 20.8 is killing me.

[McLovin]

I've got absolutely no idea when and where this financial turmoil is going to end ? I just wanted to say, for our Aussie and Kiwis friends who rely on their $$ (pension or others) and who live in CM or LOS, that I hope their currency will recover very soon. 37% down in 4 months, it sucks

Nice kind words ... thanks Sathip.

[jackr]

Hold onto yer nuts, just checked XE and it's down to 19.5

Only joking

[Will27]

Stop it mate.

I didn't read the last part until after

I checked XE myself.

I can take the noose down now.

Will

[mcgriffith]

I truly feel your pain.

I tried to open a AUD acct at Standard Bank (Thailand) earlier in the year when they were offering 6.5%. They insisted on a work permit; although I have a retirement extension and multiple accounts at other banks here.

So lucky in retrospect...

We've all taken a haircut in this market. Seems like there is no where to run and hide. Unless you are seriously short the equities market.

I'm moving (not closing!) this to the Business Investing forum, and a permanent link will be maintained on the CM forum.

[VegasVic]

I've got absolutely no idea when and where this financial turmoil is going to end ? I just wanted to say, for our Aussie and Kiwis friends who rely on their $$$ (pension or others) and who live in CM or LOS, that I hope their currency will recover very soon. 37% down in 4 months, it sucks

First of all to understand what is occuring all one has to do is look back a few years and be objective! Over the past few years the Aussie Dollar has appreciated at warp speed because of the multi-year massive bull run in the commodity markets, the falling U.S. Dollar and the Yen carry trade. Currently the commodity markets have turned on a dime and are in a cyclical bear market, the Yen carry trade has been unwinding and will continue to do so and the Dollar has turned and is in a bull run. To add insult to injury those aussies who are expats in the LOS are faced with a much tougher situation than say aussie expats in Europe, because the BOT has basically decided to try and keep the Thai baht in a narrow trading range vs. the U.S. Dollar and the bad nerw for aussie expats in Thailand is that the BOT has some very substantial Dollar reserves so this could go on for quite some time to come. To give any of these Aussie expats in Thailand the false hope that the Aussie dollar is about to rebound is a sadistic thing to do. The aussie dollar escalated to abnormal heights because it was enjoying the tailwinds of the perfect storm these past few years instead of the headwinds, it is now coming down to a more realistic valuation, as it comes back down (and possibly even over corrects) it would behoove those who rely on the Aussie dollar to get hedged against further depreciation of their currency, it may seem like I am stating the obvious but in reality very few folks ever do this. Good luck to those Aussie expats out ther who are feeling the pinch, perhaps the BOT will give up on their policy of selling their Dollar reserves and finally allow the baht to soften a bit.

[Naam]

I've got absolutely no idea when and where this financial turmoil is going to end ? I just wanted to say, for our Aussie and Kiwis friends who rely on their $$$ (pension or others) and who live in CM or LOS, that I hope their currency will recover very soon. 37% down in 4 months, it sucks

First of all to understand what is occuring all one has to do is look back a few years and be objective! Over the past few years the Aussie Dollar has appreciated at warp speed because of the multi-year massive bull run in the commodity markets, the falling U.S. Dollar and the Yen carry trade. Currently the commodity markets have turned on a dime and are in a cyclical bear market, the Yen carry trade has been unwinding and will continue to do so and the Dollar has turned and is in a bull run. To add insult to injury those aussies who are expats in the LOS are faced with a much tougher situation than say aussie expats in Europe, because the BOT has basically decided to try and keep the Thai baht in a narrow trading range vs. the U.S. Dollar and the bad nerw for aussie expats in Thailand is that the BOT has some very substantial Dollar reserves so this could go on for quite some time to come. To give any of these Aussie expats in Thailand the false hope that the Aussie dollar is about to rebound is a sadistic thing to do. The aussie dollar escalated to abnormal heights because it was enjoying the tailwinds of the perfect storm these past few years instead of the headwinds, it is now coming down to a more realistic valuation, as it comes back down (and possibly even over corrects) it would behoove those who rely on the Aussie dollar to get hedged against further depreciation of their currency, it may seem like I am stating the obvious but in reality very few folks ever do this. Good luck to those Aussie expats out ther who are feeling the pinch, perhaps the BOT will give up on their policy of selling their Dollar reserves and finally allow the baht to soften a bit.

your advice does not match reality Vic. it definitely does not apply to those Aussies, Kiwis or Brits who are depending on their monthly income and have no substantial capital to sell AUD, NZD or GBP vs. USD or Baht. besides... not everybody is familiar with currency hedging or is banking with an institution which carries out hedging orders.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

In MHO the Australian economy is sound and will survive the crunch. The biggest factor with the Ozzie $ is that it is tied to commodities and as they move the AUD moves. Commodities had a strong run up and a even stronger and faster run down. In time it will recover but unfortunately that does not help the guys living on a fixed AUD income .

Have nothing to base this on but I feel the Baht is going to start to weaken in the new year and ease the pain for the people on the fixed income.

What happens to the US $ depends a lot on who gets elected next month. I caught on the news (CNBC I think) that the Ozzies prefered Obama 5-1 over McCain. Always did like the Ozzies way of thinking.

OK flame away.