Million Jobs Are At Risk In Thailand

[Pakboong]

The primary responsibility of government in a state of financial crisis is to do whatever it can to avoid panic. Fiscal Data will be interpreted accordingly. Those that see what is coming and plan will survive. The masses will panic at some point and suffer. It is highly unlikely that Thailand will weather this storm without significant casualty figures.

[Mosha]

The countries they export to are all having big problems, including China with factory closures, and Japan with business closing. That should tell then something.

[Seneque]

If one deals in facts Exports of course are going to be affected because products that were reasonably priced are now some 30% or more expensive due to the exchange rates

and speaking about agricultural products with low value added and very narrow margins ... the xchange rate is not in favor of thailand right now ... they seem to forget that they have competitors who actually understand this....

Besides europe and the US are huge agricultural producers ... they bought from this part of the world only some staple food when it was low priced ... will the thai government wake up or r they sleeping on the pile they make (politicians) at the moment ...

[johnwills]

I think the tourist high season numbers will be ok this year as most people had already booked and paid for their holidays, however, I suspect they will be spending less due to the exchange rate (especially from the UK, Europe, Australia etc.) and concerns from what is happening back home. Next year might be a different matter, I have 3 friends who have given up on Thailand (for now) and have taken their families back to their respective countries so they can stay longer and earn more money. I wonder how many expats will soon be in a position were they cannot afford to stay here?

Lets hope the exchange rate improves (for us foreigners) and we can start spending again .

Edited October 29, 2008 by johnwills

[khunjamespittman]

The Thai's will tough it out. I cant see it being worse then other countries but a slow down will effect some of Thailands exports. Thailand is the rice bowl for this region and food is always needed so the agriculture side should not be hit too hard.

That seems not to be the case. It appears that rice and sugar exports are suffering very badly due to non-payment on existing contracts. It appears that Thailand is in fact being currently hit very hard in these areas.

[Pierrot]

The Thai's will tough it out. I cant see it being worse then other countries but a slow down will effect some of Thailands exports. Thailand is the rice bowl for this region and food is always needed so the agriculture side should not be hit too hard.

That seems not to be the case. It appears that rice and sugar exports are suffering very badly due to non-payment on existing contracts. It appears that Thailand is in fact being currently hit very hard in these areas.

People who were relying on bank facilities to do their trade are now in big trouble, and as a consequence their suppliers too. The problem is no more if there is a market but if the customers will be able to pay.

[Hairy]

We all (most countries) borrowed money from the financial institutions in America. They got greedy, they made up some money, and it all fell apart.

We lost. "Too bad" you say? Well - If you bought a house, and it just fell apart on top of you, and there was no-one to cover it, would you still think "oh, too bad" ? (well, unless you have enough money to just buy another one...)

...

I cannot be satisfied or "mellow" by the fact that I am now getting fewer money in my pocket Someone has to get the blame, and the obvious one is the US, as they are the ones whom got greedy and went down the gutter!

Not to try to inject facts into an internet argument, but most of the "made up some money" originated in Japan as a result of the carry trade. That's where most of the low-low-low interest rates in the U.S. for housing finance originated, Japanese borrowing Yen and putting the money into "high yielding" U.S. Treasuries, or into Aussie treasuries, or Kiwi treasuries, or. . . .

Where Greenspan failed miserably was in regulating the markets, particularly with respect to securitizing mortgages.

[mark lamai]

only a novice in economics , but it seems to me that

a 30% loss in value of my money (when i go to thailand) is a helluva lot.

If i am an importer of thai stuff into aus then

a 30% increase in the cost of the product is a helluva lot.

what would a careful person do?

spend less in thai.

look for other sources of product (china, vietnam of course).

it seems if they don't lower the artificial high baht value then thailand will feel a big slowdown everywhere.

here in aus many many people have "lost" 20-40% of their net worth,

sure a lot of the value will come back in a few years,

but in the meantime people are really hunkering down, limiting spending, not thinking about overseas holidays etc.

no country in the world is immune.

and yes we can blame the US financial magicians for the inventing the poison and blame our own money managers for buying this diseased product.

its a complex world and sometimes you have to rely on experts for guidance and opinions,

the average person has been very badly ignored, used and abused by those whose job it is to "protect and serve"

(government agencies, fund managers etc)

ah well, we will survive and prosper again.

but i will be thinking when the price is 1000 baht, sorry only have 700....

[BSJ]

Hi mark lamai, your argument is sound. Today the difference is about 33% and no-one can ignore such a big difference. As I stated in another forum the crunch will come after xmas. In Oz alone the number of Thai made cars and utes is substantial. With many thousands of Thai made utes sold every year equating to thousands of jobs in Thailand the hit will be noticed in Bangkok. Aussies aren't going to pay 30% more for utes...or cars. They will buy Holdens or Fords instead. Same for clothing and textiles.

[OlRedEyes]

Meanwhile many in Asia scratch their head and wonder what the hel_l this country is up to with protests, a hamstrung government whilst there is a financial meltdown going on in the world and nobody effectively at the helm to steer the country through this s**tstorm.

It can be argued that it's possibly better that there seems to be nobody steering the ship, it may be it's best chance of survival.

Edited October 30, 2008 by OlRedEyes

[Thai at Heart]

Meanwhile many in Asia scratch their head and wonder what the hel_l this country is up to with protests, a hamstrung government whilst there is a financial meltdown going on in the world and nobody effectively at the helm to steer the country through this s**tstorm.

It can be argued that it's possibly for the best that there seems to be nobody steering the ship, it may be it's best chance of survival.

Seeing the competence of many of the people involved, you may be right. Thailand is so far doing remarkably well in comparison with others. It will however, take a lot of management to ride out the whole storm. As written by if I remember the BOT head, lessons learnt from 97 may help to get Thailand through this without it collapsing. Tourism numbers will hurt however, but the longer term issue isn't really the baht rate (which will weaken, but will it collapse like the Korean Won?) but will there be enough paying customers left on the other side of the ponds.

Thailand does have it's staple exports that will help, but there are a myriad of other products such as pick ups that are vital for the country. However, as mentioned by a previous poster concerning pick ups. If your house is repossessed or you lose your job devaluing the baht still won't help you buy your pick up. Available credit that funded discretionary purchases in the developed world for the last 5 to 10 years is not going to be around for a long time to come.

[Smithson]

Again Thailand exports essentials ... they'll weather this storm fairly well

This is what I thought, but I'm not so sure now. There was something on the news last night about planned job cuts in the auto industry. Apparently pick ups are the no. 2 export, rice is something like 8. They may export a lot of food, but in tough times ppl may choose cheaper local products over imported food.

Does anyone have a list of Thailand's top ten exports?