Capital Faces Oversupply Of Condo Units

[think_too_mut]

"The 20,062 unsold units represents less than 23% of condo units available for sale."

Are the 20,062 units ready to move-in today? Of course not. "Available for sale" can mean any unit: planned, under construction, or gathering dust.

What you say is true. Either they are planned, under construction, or gathering dust. What is your point? Are you trying to point out that they are mostly not ready to move into and therefore not completed empty units?

Edit: You wouldn't happen to be the latest reincarnation of backflip, would you?

Hmmm.....

[shochu]

there are a large number of FINISHED units looking for buyers.

many more - although less than previous years - coming on line soon.

AND many, many, many units bought on speculation looking for buyers.

i don't have exact numbers and i am too busy to find the numbers BUT if u can peruse the papers u will find more concrete numbers. i can't recall the exact figures as i have gone over quite a bit of literature recently - but - i do recall thinking the numbers were quite high and getting higher. MUCH MORE higher than the 20,000 figure above.

Edited January 30, 2009 by shochu

[hhgz]

"Are you trying to point out that they are mostly not ready to move into and therefore not completed empty units?"

Yes, that is my point. bingobongo posted that some bureaucratic functionary reports that 30-40,000 units will be "available" in 2009. That's true, and the majority of the units have been sold.

[bingobongo]

shelter (aka housing, scroll to the bottom) went up a miniscule .4% (from Dec 2007 to Dec 2008) whereas for example, duck, chicken, and frog prices went up a whopping 15.8% (or any other product unrelated to housing), people need to eat, not buy overpriced oversupplied capital traps

Consumer Price Index and Core Consumer Price Index

in December 2008 and year 2008

http://www.indexpr.moc.go.th/price_present..._region=country

[donx]

shelter (aka housing, scroll to the bottom) went up a miniscule .4% (from Dec 2007 to Dec 2008) whereas for example, duck, chicken, and frog prices went up a whopping 15.8% (or any other product unrelated to housing), people need to eat, not buy overpriced oversupplied capital traps

Consumer Price Index and Core Consumer Price Index

in December 2008 and year 2008

http://www.indexpr.moc.go.th/price_present..._region=country

So you are now saying that housing prces have been going up and not down like you have been warning of happening in so many other threads that you've posted here over the past three years.

[hhgz]

"shelter went up a miniscule .4%...whereas for example, duck, chicken, and frog prices went up a whopping 15.8%..."

Are you suggesting that people eat housing, people should live in frogs, or we should have invested in Thai commodities?

[bingobongo]

time for defintions:

Reality, in everyday usage, means "the state of things as they actually exist".

Denial is a defense mechansim postulated by Freud, in which a person is faced with a fact that is too uncomfortable to accept and rejects it instead, insisting that it is not true despite what may be overwhelming evidence.

now apply those to the following hhgz

Bangkok real estate: Investment activity slows as buyers hold out for price cuts

At the same time, sellers refuse to dispose of their property assets at a loss, despite accepting the softer market conditions.

http://www.property-report.com/em_top_stor...amp;date=030209

Edited February 4, 2009 by bingobongo

[pkrv]

"shelter went up a miniscule .4%...whereas for example, duck, chicken, and frog prices went up a whopping 15.8%..."

Are you suggesting that people eat housing, people should live in frogs, or we should have invested in Thai commodities?

I will have to say that had me laughing - things are going to be OK this time around aren't they? You do sometimes post some excellent stuff, and sometimes not such excellent stuff. I really would not worry about bingobonkers he will never reply anyway.

[thaiwanderer]

http://www.property-report.com/em_top_stor...amp;date=040209

raimon land "enormous strain on our operational cash flow"

alchemists acknowledging it....

[midas]

there are a large number of FINISHED units looking for buyers.

many more - although less than previous years - coming on line soon.

AND many, many, many units bought on speculation looking for buyers.

i don't have exact numbers and i am too busy to find the numbers BUT if u can peruse the papers u will find more concrete numbers. i can't recall the exact figures as i have gone over quite a bit of literature recently - but - i do recall thinking the numbers were quite high and getting higher. MUCH MORE higher than the 20,000 figure above.

...........and because they are " secondhand " will be relying mainly on expat buyers..........

[bingobongo]

like i said, it is dead money

one more time, what is the rush to buy? oh that's right........there isn't one

Bangkok property market virtually stagnant as buyers expect large discounts

'The general consensus is that property values are trending downward. However, the magnitude of the decline in property values is highly uncertain. There have been very few property investment transactions since last year to date.

http://www.propertywire.com/news/asia/bang...0902062564.html

[ray08]

http://www.property-report.com/em_top_stor...amp;date=040209

raimon land "enormous strain on our operational cash flow"

alchemists acknowledging it....

Cash flow problems has hit a lot of business ,but developing large expensive projects like the River ,in these times is a big ask,A developer would need very deep pockets to survive in this enviroment ,and i cant see to many punters buying property off the plan this year ,and with comments like" enormous strain on our operational cash flow " coming out ,would not give existing or prospective buyers much confidence in the company ,

[donx]

there are a large number of FINISHED units looking for buyers.

many more - although less than previous years - coming on line soon.

AND many, many, many units bought on speculation looking for buyers.

i don't have exact numbers and i am too busy to find the numbers BUT if u can peruse the papers u will find more concrete numbers. i can't recall the exact figures as i have gone over quite a bit of literature recently - but - i do recall thinking the numbers were quite high and getting higher. MUCH MORE higher than the 20,000 figure above.

...........and because they are " secondhand " will be relying mainly on expat buyers..........

Thai's don't usually consider them to be "secondhand" unless someone actually lived in them.

[yabaaaa]

there are a large number of FINISHED units looking for buyers.

many more - although less than previous years - coming on line soon.

AND many, many, many units bought on speculation looking for buyers.

i don't have exact numbers and i am too busy to find the numbers BUT if u can peruse the papers u will find more concrete numbers. i can't recall the exact figures as i have gone over quite a bit of literature recently - but - i do recall thinking the numbers were quite high and getting higher. MUCH MORE higher than the 20,000 figure above.

...........and because they are " secondhand " will be relying mainly on expat buyers..........

Thai's don't usually consider them to be "secondhand" unless someone actually lived in them.

So a complete repaint in identical colours removal of all furniture and Bingo ( sorry I swore) "I never lived in it"

Edited February 6, 2009 by yabaaaa

[hhgz]

"You do sometimes post some excellent stuff, and sometimes not such excellent stuff."

Ah, it's hit and miss, and that's life. I think it's safe to say that both of us view the glass as at least half full. Many others believe that the glass is completely empty. The US has had a dozen recessions since 1931, and 11 of them are history. This one too will pass.

[bingobongo]

apparently some of you missed class, so one more time

hhgz, i suggest you cut it out and tape it your mortgaged bathroom mirror

Edited February 9, 2009 by bingobongo

[midas]

"You do sometimes post some excellent stuff, and sometimes not such excellent stuff."

Ah, it's hit and miss, and that's life. I think it's safe to say that both of us view the glass as at least half full. Many others believe that the glass is completely empty. The US has had a dozen recessions since 1931, and 11 of them are history. This one too will pass.

hhgz

the question I have is what are you drinking in your half full glass? You say

" The US has had a dozen recessions since 1931, and 11 of them are history. This one too will pass."

If you are unable to distinguish as to what is different between those previous recessions and

the severity and depth of what is happening now all around the world you are completely out of touch with reality

just have another drink if it makes you feel better ........... but you'll still not avoid the hangover

[thaihome]

...If you are unable to distinguish as to what is different between those previous recessions and

the severity and depth of what is happening now all around the world you are completely out of touch with reality

just have another drink if it makes you feel better ........... but you'll still not avoid the hangover

Ok, I'll bite.

Headline:

"U.S. employers eliminated 598,000 jobs in January, the most since the end of 1974,"

Do you remember 1974? I do and even though we did not have internet and places like this for people like you to express your hysteria, we did have the nightly news and all you saw was how bad it was for everyone and the world as we knew was soon going to end soon the dam_n Arabs were going to rule the world (or what was going to be left of it).

Of course, at the time, I was working full time, making more money then I ever had to that point, didn't know anyone that was really hurting, though obviously there were people who were, I just didn’t know any. And then, after a while (a long while it must have felt to some) things got better.

So again, explain how this one is going to be different, because if it is, we might as kill ourselves now and get it over with.

TH

[midas]

Do you remember 1974? I do and even though we did not have internet and places like this for people like you to express your hysteria, we did have the nightly news and all you saw was how bad it was for everyone and the world as we knew was soon going to end soon the dam_n Arabs were going to rule the world (or what was going to be left of it).

Of course, at the time, I was working full time, making more money then I ever had to that point, didn't know anyone that was really hurting, though obviously there were people who were, I just didn’t know any. And then, after a while (a long while it must have felt to some) things got better.

So again, explain how this one is going to be different, because if it is, we might as kill ourselves now and get it over with.

TH

I cant see where there is any element of hysteria in my posting only discussion and analysis

of a sizable looming problem...........

As this is the real estate thread I am reticent to go too far into depth and would prefer to discuss / debate

these issues with you in one of the other threads such as " Economic Crisis ".

I can easily answer your question but the very fact you are asking it suggests that

you have not extrapolated incidents which are building up around the world.

As you asked I'll give you three examples............

Yes we have been through many recessions before because after all its only defined as " a period of two quarters of negative GDP growth."

It is as simple as that. But this is not just a recession and it's nothing like the period of1974 as you described because at that

time USA the biggest enonomy in world wasnt effectively bankrupt.

This is different because these are unprecedented economic events that are occurring not just " a period of two quarters of negative GDP growth."

1. The bursting of the credit bubble

In 2009, the economic train wreck now in motion will occur. It will not be a one time event. It will be a successive series of

protracted crisis in conjunction with continuing breakdowns in access to credit, goods and services, an escalating

and cascading series of previously unimaginable events.

In today's monetarily debased markets, credit has become essential for all commercial activity.

This dream of bankers is the nightmare of producers and savers and credit becomes compounding debt which becomes

bankers' profits also resulting in increasing defaults and bankruptcies.

2. Unprecedented loss of trust

Second, we're going to have to get used to a loss of trust. All those rock-solid people and institutions that we trusted

with our money, our pensions and our kids' piggybank savings --- like Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America ---

do not seem trustworthy anymore. Never before in my life have I looked around at every bank and

said, "I'm not sure I wouldn't prefer to put my money in in safe "

The Bernard Madoff scandal, of course, has only reinforced that loss of trust. His degree of betrayal

his alleged willingness to embezzle the life savings of people whom he had known his whole life is so

coldhearted that it charts new territory in human behavior. He's on his way to becoming an adjective.

Money managers are already being asked prove to prospective new clients that their internal safeguards

are "Madoff proof."

3. Unprecedented crowd violence around the world

This is potentially far worse than the " Arabs were going to rule "

Two weeks ago we saw it in Greece, last week in the The Times of London it said

about China, " Bankruptcies, unemployment and social unrest are spreading more

widely in China than officially reported, according to independent res

earch that paints an ominous picture for the world economy. "]

But as I said if you participate in one of many the other threads in Thai Visa you will read how ordinary U.S.

citizens are now turning extremely angry and unsurprisingly gun shops have recently been selling out of weapons and bullets.

One-man describes his shock at seeing hippies buying machine guns. These are things you will not

hear much about from the mainstream press for a number of reasons but surely you can see what will

happen when ( not if ) this stimulus package doesnt work -people in USA are very angry .

The Times recently reported a huge increase in people buying safes in which to keep their money instead of in the bank.

This doesnt feel like a recession...............it looks very much like a real world changing event

No need to kill yourself but I think it would be a pity if you were not prepared

Edited February 11, 2009 by midas

[donx]

I cant see where there is any element of hysteria in my posting only discussion and analysis

of a sizable looming problem...........

I'm sorry I have to agree with thaihome and others that have expressed the same sentiment - your posts do contain a significant amount of hysteria. Even the experts you quote normally have a more balanced perspective, yet like bingo bongo and others on here, you rarely acknowlegde this.

But as I said if you participate in one of many the other threads in Thai Visa you will read how ordinary U.S.

citizens are now turning extremely angry and unsurprisingly gun shops have recently been selling out of weapons and bullets.

One-man describes his shock at seeing hippies buying machine guns. These are things you will not

hear much about from the mainstream press for a number of reasons but surely you can see what will

happen when ( not if ) this stimulus package doesnt work -people in USA are very angry .

I live in the US. I haven't heard of people going out and buying guns en masse. That actually was happening in October/November of last year once it was obvious that Obama was going to win the elect. They were buying not because of the ecomonic situation but because they expect Obama will attempt to restrict the sale of semi-automatic weapons.

I just hired a new employee that started this week. Our company has been hiring an average of 3 people per week for the past 6 months. Yes, there are many companies that are laying off employees. Things are definitely not rosy for everyone, but some of us, like thaihome said, are actually doing better now than in the past. Within the last 2 months I bought two new sofas, I big refrigerator with ice and water dispensers, and a new car.

[midas]

donx

look at this video............. maybe it will help explain far more

than I can ever put into words........................................

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQ-IPb8AOZE&eurl

Edited February 11, 2009 by midas

[midas]

And then there is this ..............................................

Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long

Ray Dalio, Chief Investment Officer, Bridgewater Associates

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 2009

" Let's call it a "D-process," which is different than a recession, and the only reason that people really don't understand this process is because it happens rarely. Everybody should, at this point, try to understand the depression process by reading about the Great Depression or the Latin American debt crisis or the Japanese experience so that it becomes part of their frame of reference. Most people didn't live through any of those experiences, and what they have gotten used to is the recession dynamic, and so they are quick to presume the recession dynamic. It is very clear to me that we are in a D-process.

Why are you hesitant to emphasize either the words depression or deflation? Why call it a D-process?

Both of those words have connotations associated with them that can confuse the fact that it is a process that people should try to understand.

You can describe a recession as an economic retraction which occurs when the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy normally to fight inflation. The cycle continues until the economy weakens enough to bring down the inflation rate, at which time the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy and produces an expansion. We can make it more complicated, but that is a basic simple description of what recessions are and what we have experienced through the post-World War II period. What you also need is a comparable understanding of what a D-process is and why it is different."

SEE THE FULL INTERVIEW HERE :-

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123396...rrons_interview

Edited February 11, 2009 by midas

[quiksilva]

The last page of this article concludes with the following:-

Given this outlook, what is your view on stocks?

Buying equities and taking on those risks in late 2009, or more likely 2010, will be a great move because equities will be much cheaper than now. It is going to be a buying opportunity of the century.

Midas, I'm confused, help me out here, why would he say end 2009/2010 will be the "buying opportunity of the century", if markets will not recover for two decades? (as is your stated belief?).

(Related: established medium term trends such as bear or bull runs on the stock markets (as opposed to reactionary blips) are useful indicators of future property market direction)

Ps this was originally posted by Lannare in the interesting, even entertaining, business forum.

Edited February 12, 2009 by quiksilva

[midas]

The last page of this article concludes with the following:-

Given this outlook, what is your view on stocks?

Buying equities and taking on those risks in late 2009, or more likely 2010, will be a great move because equities will be much cheaper than now. It is going to be a buying opportunity of the century.

Midas, I'm confused, help me out here, why would he say end 2009/2010 will be the "buying opportunity of the century", if markets will not recover for two decades? (as is your stated belief?).

(Related: established medium term trends such as bear or bull runs on the stock markets (as opposed to reactionary blips) are useful indicators of future property market direction)

Ps this was originally posted by Lannare in the interesting, even entertaining, business forum.

quiksilva in relation to your question I can only respond by saying many in the business forum which you referred to as being

entertaining ( I wish I could find the You Tube video " entertaining " ) said they disagreed with some of his comments

although I don't know which ones they were referring to exactly. I was more interested in his excellent analysis of why

this crisis is not a normal recession which people keep referring to this asbut whether his prediction regarding buying opportunity of the century

is correct- only time will tell.

I haven't changed my view one bit we will suffer this for two decades because it's not that far off

what what this person said in London just a couple days ago......

Ed Balls, the PM's closest ally, warns that downturn is ferocious and says impact will last 15 years

Britain is facing its worst financial crisis for more than a century, surpassing even the Great Depression

of the 1930s, one of Gordon Brown's most senior ministers and confidants has admitted.

In an extraordinary admission about the severity of the economic downturn, Ed Balls even predicted

that its effects would still be felt 15 years from now.

He warned that events worldwide were moving at a "speed, pace and ferocity which none of us have

seen before" and banks were losing cash on a "scale that nobody believed possible".

Edited February 12, 2009 by midas

[quiksilva]

Yes he says, that its not a normal recession. I agree I felt it was an excellent article, he made a good case for his view, yet it still impplied the bottom would be end 2009/2010 (it wouldn't be the best buying opportunity otherwise), as to whether he's right, well we'll have a better idea of that next year won't we?

Oh there's certainly some worrying material in the business forum, plus there's a lot of humour (Naam's conversations with his dog for instance managed to turn my frown upside down this morning ) its all garnished with a hefty side dish of conspiracy, with only sprinkles of realism, refreshing as they are.. So yes all in all I find it entertaining.

As for Ed Ball's comment, (I read that piece too - in fact he got called out on it by various other MP's who demanded clarification) it might surprise you to learn that I tend to agree.

I do think the effects of this slump will be felt for decades, but the 'effects' are in my opinion not limited to the decline in market values (be they stocks, property etc) rather seeing as he is a policy maker, I read his comments as him speaking in broader terms.

For example how government's role in the markets will be defined by this era. In other words the days of government intervention have returned, and they are likely to keep their fingers in the market for some time to come, with particular focus on how financial institutions are regulated.

Of course that's just how I read it, flame if you must.

[Pakboong]

...If you are unable to distinguish as to what is different between those previous recessions and

the severity and depth of what is happening now all around the world you are completely out of touch with reality

just have another drink if it makes you feel better ........... but you'll still not avoid the hangover

Ok, I'll bite.

Headline:

"U.S. employers eliminated 598,000 jobs in January, the most since the end of 1974,"

Do you remember 1974? I do and even though we did not have internet and places like this for people like you to express your hysteria, we did have the nightly news and all you saw was how bad it was for everyone and the world as we knew was soon going to end soon the dam_n Arabs were going to rule the world (or what was going to be left of it).

Of course, at the time, I was working full time, making more money then I ever had to that point, didn't know anyone that was really hurting, though obviously there were people who were, I just didn’t know any. And then, after a while (a long while it must have felt to some) things got better.

So again, explain how this one is going to be different, because if it is, we might as kill ourselves now and get it over with.

TH

1974-75 was the timeframe the US reduced it's military by more than a million.

[midas]

Yes he says, that its not a normal recession. I agree I felt it was an excellent article, he made a good case for his view, yet it still impplied the bottom would be end 2009/2010 (it wouldn't be the best buying opportunity otherwise), as to whether he's right, well we'll have a better idea of that next year won't we?

Oh there's certainly some worrying material in the business forum, plus there's a lot of humour (Naam's conversations with his dog for instance managed to turn my frown upside down this morning ) its all garnished with a hefty side dish of conspiracy, with only sprinkles of realism, refreshing as they are.. So yes all in all I find it entertaining.

As for Ed Ball's comment, (I read that piece too - in fact he got called out on it by various other MP's who demanded clarification) it might surprise you to learn that I tend to agree.

I do think the effects of this slump will be felt for decades, but the 'effects' are in my opinion not limited to the decline in market values (be they stocks, property etc) rather seeing as he is a policy maker, I read his comments as him speaking in broader terms.

For example how government's role in the markets will be defined by this era. In other words the days of government intervention have returned, and they are likely to keep their fingers in the market for some time to come, with particular focus on how financial institutions are regulated.

Of course that's just how I read it, flame if you must.

quicksilva tut tut how can I respond if you immediately construe it as flaming you

As you also chose 2009/2010 as representing possibly providing " interesting opportunities " in the Bangkok

condominium market in another thread but then went on to say later but you were not implying the market

values would start to increase at that time, perhaps he was implying the same about stocks of shares ?

I'm only speculating but perhaps he was implying people could buy shares at that point with interest rates

being virtually zero them with nowhere else to park money available for quick and easy liquidation

( other than under the bed ). They could benefit from a steady annual dividend andl there is nothing

in his article to say he is expecting a noticeable increase in the value of shares after 2009/2010 ?

One could argue indefinitely as to the interpretation of the word " effects " but yes, I agree government intervention

is going to introduce a new mindset into the entire business world and as yet we have no idea how far reaching

this could be on setting much stiffer criteria than before for mortgage applications and other types of borrowing.

With such a breakdown in lack of trust as we have seen recently,

I think it will take a long time for things to flow the way they were before all this and anyway this thing

is still unfolding on a daily basis.

[thaihome]

...If you are unable to distinguish as to what is different between those previous recessions and

the severity and depth of what is happening now all around the world you are completely out of touch with reality

just have another drink if it makes you feel better ........... but you'll still not avoid the hangover

Ok, I'll bite.

Headline:

"U.S. employers eliminated 598,000 jobs in January, the most since the end of 1974,"

Do you remember 1974? I do and even though we did not have internet and places like this for people like you to express your hysteria, we did have the nightly news and all you saw was how bad it was for everyone and the world as we knew was soon going to end soon the dam_n Arabs were going to rule the world (or what was going to be left of it).

Of course, at the time, I was working full time, making more money then I ever had to that point, didn't know anyone that was really hurting, though obviously there were people who were, I just didn’t know any. And then, after a while (a long while it must have felt to some) things got better.

So again, explain how this one is going to be different, because if it is, we might as kill ourselves now and get it over with.

TH

1974-75 was the timeframe the US reduced it's military by more than a million.

That is pertinent how?

The 1974-1975 Recession in the U.S.

My point was at that time, many were predicating (though they had fewer platforms to do so at that time) the end of the world as we knew it and there was no way out.

Sound familar?

TH

[midas]

1974-75 was the timeframe the US reduced it's military by more than a million.

That is pertinent how?

The 1974-1975 Recession in the U.S.

My point was at that time, many were predicating (though they had fewer platforms to do so at that time) the end of the world as we knew it and there was no way out.

Sound familar?

TH

thaihome just so i can understand your point, i also dont know his point about the reduced size of the Army

but there doesn't seem to be any reference in your article about " going through one the biggest credit

bubbles in history " ? I can't remember even if we had credit cards in 1975 ?

In your article there was concern about " Policy makers in 1974 perceived inflation as a major problem ".

Now we know it's deflation that is the major problem and if we only look back of what happened

in Japan and its real estate values in the early 1990s ( just one country ) I think

it suggests significantly more than your 1975 experience...... ?

[quiksilva]

quicksilva tut tut how can I respond if you immediately construe it as flaming you

Call it force of habit.

As you also chose 2009/2010 as representing possibly providing " interesting opportunities " in the Bangkok

condominium market in another thread but then went on to say later but you were not implying the market

values would start to increase at that time, perhaps he was implying the same about stocks of shares ?

I'm only speculating but perhaps he was implying people could buy shares at that point with interest rates

being virtually zero them with nowhere else to park money available for quick and easy liquidation

( other than under the bed ). They could benefit from a steady annual dividend andl there is nothing

in his article to say he is expecting a noticeable increase in the value of shares after 2009/2010 ?

I suppose that could be feasible, and I suppose that this could in fact be an additional benefit. However, I don't discount the option that they are advising this because they know (or have been conditioned to advise) that buying at the bottom of the market, before a recovery is fully underway nets the greatest returns. Buy at the time of deepest gloom as Train says (see his comments in "8 really scary predictions"). This also follows that Roubini et al who stated that a recovery could happen in 2010 albeit very weak. See link here

One could argue indefinitely as to the interpretation of the word " effects " but yes, I agree government intervention is going to introduce a new mindset into the entire business world and as yet we have no idea how far reaching this could be on setting much stiffer criteria than before for mortgage applications and other types of borrowing. With such a breakdown in lack of trust as we have seen recently, I think it will take a long time for things to flow the way they were before all this and anyway this thing is still unfolding on a daily basis.

True. We all wait with baited breath but in the meantime we focus on the business we have in hand today.

Edited February 13, 2009 by quiksilva