Capital Faces Oversupply Of Condo Units

[midas]

The above article gave me a headache. It brought a new twist to the term balanced reporting - It appeared to say one thing, then at the end, completely contradicted itself.

maybe that is because of the people who are commenting :-

Thaninee Satirareungchai, property analyst, KGI Securities (Thailand) - no vested interest in commissions earned

in the market so gives a straightforward opinion .......................

UOB Kay Hian (Thailand) - ditto

Then finally CBRE who always give a positive spin on the market no matter how bad things are ...............

I know which of the 3 I would rather believe

[pkrv]

come on bendix, is that the best you have? i'm not impressed, i called the SET bust and the housing weakness for more than 2 years, come back when your acumen is as good as your pontificating (which are obviously not correlated except to your own ego)

glyph (aka whatever you call yourself), you are an amusing little fellow, but your frustration in your posts is quite entertaining

anyway, like a bargirls looks over 25, equity is fading............

Home prices widely expected to fall in 2009

Moreover, property developers can be expected to boost their sales next year by reducing prices, after they see falling sales in the final quarฌter of 2008. As a result of all these facฌtors Supalai expects lower residential prices in 2009, Prateep said

According to the Real Estate Information Centre (REIC), new houses registered around the country in the third quarter of this year numbered only 113 projects or 17,000 units - a drop of 25 per cent and 13 per cent respectively from the third quarter of 2007. Of these, 82 projects with a total of 14,000 new homes were registered in Bangkok and its suburbs - a drop of 9 per cent in terms of projects and 1 per cent in terms of units over the corresponding period of last year.

Meanwhile, 284 projects with 42,000 new homes were registered a round the country in the first nine months of 2008 - falling by 25 per cent and 11 per cent respectively from the first nine months of last year.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/17...ss_30091142.php

Bingobonkers - OK in an attempt to communicate let’s try this

1) USD vs. THB is at an artificial high - check

2) USD prospects look to be pretty dire - check

3) US is debt based - check

4) Thailand is a cash based society - check

5) Bingobongo does not own 'property' in Thailand -check

6) Bingobongo is US based - check

7) Bingobongo expresses interest in the Thai 'property' market - check

8) Bingobongo talks up a collapse in the Thai property market - check

9) Bingobongo is waiting for the inevitable Thai property market collapse - check

Error - The US is in far more difficulty than Thailand and its problems are only going to escalate. It will be interesting to see what your USD can/will buy in a year or two.

Note: 'property' in my mind is Freehold Farang quota condominiums.

[Colonel_Mustard]

come on bendix, is that the best you have? i'm not impressed, i called the SET bust and the housing weakness for more than 2 years, come back when your acumen is as good as your pontificating (which are obviously not correlated except to your own ego)

glyph (aka whatever you call yourself), you are an amusing little fellow, but your frustration in your posts is quite entertaining

anyway, like a bargirls looks over 25, equity is fading............

Home prices widely expected to fall in 2009

Moreover, property developers can be expected to boost their sales next year by reducing prices, after they see falling sales in the final quarฌter of 2008. As a result of all these facฌtors Supalai expects lower residential prices in 2009, Prateep said

According to the Real Estate Information Centre (REIC), new houses registered around the country in the third quarter of this year numbered only 113 projects or 17,000 units - a drop of 25 per cent and 13 per cent respectively from the third quarter of 2007. Of these, 82 projects with a total of 14,000 new homes were registered in Bangkok and its suburbs - a drop of 9 per cent in terms of projects and 1 per cent in terms of units over the corresponding period of last year.

Meanwhile, 284 projects with 42,000 new homes were registered a round the country in the first nine months of 2008 - falling by 25 per cent and 11 per cent respectively from the first nine months of last year.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/17...ss_30091142.php

Bingobonkers - OK in an attempt to communicate let’s try this

1) USD vs. THB is at an artificial high - check

2) USD prospects look to be pretty dire - check

3) US is debt based - check

4) Thailand is a cash based society - check

5) Bingobongo does not own 'property' in Thailand -check

6) Bingobongo is US based - check

7) Bingobongo expresses interest in the Thai 'property' market - check

8) Bingobongo talks up a collapse in the Thai property market - check

9) Bingobongo is waiting for the inevitable Thai property market collapse - check

Error - The US is in far more difficulty than Thailand and its problems are only going to escalate. It will be interesting to see what your USD can/will buy in a year or two.

Note: 'property' in my mind is Freehold Farang quota condominiums.

Quality

[quiksilva]

The irony of bingo's posts is that the US has to go cap in hand to Thailand, a nation he despises yet are the 17th largest creditor ... err sorry holder of US Treasury Securities, which form part of the US National debt, which now stands at:

This has continued to increase an average of $3.65 billion per day since September 28, 2007 (hint this debt clock is live so if you refresh your page you see how much it climbs every few seconds)

The debt represents 72 ish % of US's GDP for 2008, a level which has not been seen since the second world war and its a figure which is only going to get exponentially larger as the US lowers interest rates, and boosts spending as it tries to fend off its current economic maelstrom.

[bendix]

What happened with the previous million (dollars) you were bragging about a year ago? Screwed between October 2007 and now?

In cash in high interest accounts.

Need a loan, pal?

[bendix]

It's also wonderful that bingobongo talks of his acumen in predicting a SET crash and Thai housing crash two years ago. Remarkably astute. Anyone with a the intelligence of a housefly could have seen share prices around the world - not just Thailand - were due for a fundamental correction. I did. That's why I've been cashed up for the last 14 months.

The same applies to housing which, it should be pointed out, is far more soft in the US, UK and other western countries than in Thailand.

If that's acumen, I'm a fuc_king banana.

What else will bingobongo predict using such wisdom? That the sun will rise tomorrow morning, perhaps?

Edited December 18, 2008 by bendix

[think_too_mut]

What happened with the previous million (dollars) you were bragging about a year ago? Screwed between October 2007 and now?

In cash in high interest accounts.

Need a loan, pal?

I thought it were you last year, when I was telling how 7.5% (then) non-residental cash account in an Oz bank pays rent with the same amount needed to purhase the place, you gave us all a lesson using things like 17-22% return on your wealth.

Now, you are packing up.

Looks more like you need a loan if you are ready to go and labour in a shoothole like UK while leaving Thailand and family behind.

Edited December 18, 2008 by think_too_mut

[bendix]

Can you repeat that, but this time try it in English?

What are you talking about, man? 17-22%. I have no idea what you're on about.

As for packing up, far from it. I've bought a condo here, and am looking at a retirement house for the future. Frankly, I'm bored working here and need a new career challenge. The new role provides it.

And far from leaving family behind, my wife will be joining me when she's finished her obligations here (and is very excited to do so), and in the meantime the firm I'm joining will be paying for her to visit regularly.

I'm delighted you take such a close interest in my affairs. Curiously, I'm completely indifferent to yours.

[quiksilva]

I'm delighted you take such a close interest in my affairs. Curiously, I'm completely indifferent to yours.

I don't have a dog in this fight, but that quip made me laugh out loud!

[think_too_mut]

Can you repeat that, but this time try it in English?

What are you talking about, man? 17-22%. I have no idea what you're on about.

As for packing up, far from it. I've bought a condo here, and am looking at a retirement house for the future. Frankly, I'm bored working here and need a new career challenge. The new role provides it.

And far from leaving family behind, my wife will be joining me when she's finished her obligations here (and is very excited to do so), and in the meantime the firm I'm joining will be paying for her to visit regularly.

I'm delighted you take such a close interest in my affairs. Curiously, I'm completely indifferent to yours.

Of course I don't give a hoot what your affairs are. It was you that came to teach others how superior and clever you are (but not how and why such a brain eneded up in Bangkok).

[bendix]

Of course I don't give a hoot what your affairs are. It was you that came to teach others how superior and clever you are (but not how and why such a brain eneded up in Bangkok).

I was posted here. And now I'm posting myself elsewhere.

What else would you like to know?

I'm delighted you want to talk about me. Finally we've hit upon a mutual interest.

[think_too_mut]

Of course I don't give a hoot what your affairs are. It was you that came to teach others how superior and clever you are (but not how and why such a brain eneded up in Bangkok).

I was posted here. And now I'm posting myself elsewhere.

What else would you like to know?

I'm delighted you want to talk about me. Finally we've hit upon a mutual interest.

Talk to the likes on my ignore list.

Adio.

[pkrv]

Perhaps I should soften my own words slightly. I am not anti US or US bashing what I was attempting to do was draw attention to the fact that FX movement could be FAR more significant to your finances than a crash in Thai property prices.

Take my own position I was purchasing in GBP at around 75 (ish) - things fell to around 50 (ish) at one point. Even if my own condominium purchase had fallen 25% in THB value (which does not seem to have happened, quite the contrary in fact) I would still be up 25% <edit in my own currency, GBP>. This is not a case of 1+1=2.

I don't profess to have my nose to the ground on USD issues, but if you are retiring in Thailand now may be a good time to look at the situation with a critical eye.

Edited December 18, 2008 by pkrv

[bingobongo]

not really a surprise, except for those in deep denial, deep in debt, or just deeply delusional

but in typical LOS stupidity, they keep building.......genius, pure genius

enjoy.........i know i am

Developers cut back revenue forecasts

Buyer sentiment worsens as economic crisis, political strife hit spending power

Most of Thailand's property developers have revised their 2008 revenue forecasts downwards in the face of a depressed market that began to slide into difficulty several months ago.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/19/business/business_30091378.php

[rott]

not really a surprise, except for those in deep denial, deep in debt, or just deeply delusional

but in typical LOS stupidity, they keep building.......genius, pure genius

enjoy.........i know i am

Developers cut back revenue forecasts

Buyer sentiment worsens as economic crisis, political strife hit spending power

Most of Thailand's property developers have revised their 2008 revenue forecasts downwards in the face of a depressed market that began to slide into difficulty several months ago.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/19/business/business_30091378.php

All very apposite I am sure Bingo, and I have enjoyed your comments for a few years, but we can read the newspapers ourselves. So come on stick your neck out and forecast WHEN condo prices are going to fall.

[quiksilva]

I'd like to hear his views on how long the slump will last....

[thaihome]

I like to hear how many other business cycles he has lived through. What I see in many people’s hysteria about this is they are young and this is first downturn they have lived through. It’s not the end of the world.

TH

[midas]

I like to hear how many other business cycles he has lived through. What I see in many people’s hysteria about this is they are young and this is first downturn they have lived through. It’s not the end of the world.

TH

but could it be the end of the financial world we used to know..........? :-

A Long-Term View on the Depression

It's from noted sociologist, social scientist and world-systems analyst Immanuel Wallerstein, now a Senior Research Scholar at Yale where he covers world-systems in three ways:

* the historical development of the modern world-system;

* the contemporary crisis of modern world-economy capitalism; and

* structures and knowledge.

He's authored numerous books and writes regular commentaries on major world and national topics. A recent October 15 one is titled "The Depression: A Long-Term View."

It's started in his view. We're "at the beginning of a full-blown worldwide depression with extensive unemployment almost everywhere. It may take the form of a classic nominal deflation (or less likely) a runaway inflation, which is simply another way in which values deflate." What caused it, he asks? Derivatives? Subprime mortgages? Oil speculators? It's a "blame game of no real importance."

Understanding it calls for far more revealing factors, such as "medium-term cyclical swings (and) long-term structural trends." Over several hundred years at least, he describes two major ones. "One is the so-called Kondratieff cycles that historically" lasted 50 - 60 years. The other is called "hegemonic cycles" that are much fewer in number but last far longer.

America contended for hegemony as early as 1873, achieved it fully in 1945, and has been declining since the 1970s. "George W. Bush's follies have transformed a slow decline into a precipitate one. And as of now, we are past any semblance of US hegemony. We have entered, as normally happens, a multipolar world. The United States remains a strong power, perhaps still the strongest, but it will continue to decline relative to other powers in the decades to come." Nothing can change this.

Kondratieff cycles are timed differently. Its last B-phase ended in 1945, followed by "the strongest A-phase upturn in the history of the modern world-system." It peaked around 1967 - 73, and headed down. "This B-phase has gone on much longer than previous (ones) and we are still in it."

Its characteristics are as follows:

* "profit rates from productive activities go down, especially in those types of production that have been most profitable;"

* it directs capitalists to financialization and speculation for higher returns; and

* "productive activities, in order not to become too unprofitable, tend to move from core zones (like America) to (lower cost) parts of the world-system."

Speculative bubbles are profitable while inflating, but they always burst. "If one asks why this Kondratieff B-phase has lasted so long, it is because the powers that be (the Treasury, Fed, IMF, and western European and Japanese collaborators) have intervened in the market regularly and importantly" to shore it up at times of economic disruptions - 1987, the 1989 S & L crisis, 1997 Asian contagion, 1998 Long Term Capital Management debacle, the 2001 - 2002 corporate scandal period, and more than ever today with big unanswered questions whether this time it will work.

It doesn't matter because we've reached the limits of what can be done - "as Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke are learning to their chagrin and probably amazement. This time, it will not be so easy, probably impossible, to avert the worst."

In earlier depressions, innovations and quasi-monopolies helped world economies recover. In the late 1930s, WW II played the major role. Today things are different and "may interfere with this nice cyclical pattern that has sustained the capitalist system for some 500 years." They're new structural trends, according to Wallerstein. "The problem with all structural equilibria of all systems, is that over time the curves tend to move far from equilibrium (and it's) impossible to bring them back."

What happened this time? It's "because over 500 years the three basic costs of capitalist production - personnel, inputs, and taxation - have steadily risen as a percentage of possible sales price (so) today (it's) impossible to obtain the large profits" that previously were the "basis of significant capital accumulation." It's the result of capitalism working so well that it finally "undermined the basis of future accumulation."

At this point, the system "bifurcates." The immediate consequence is high chaotic turbulence (now ongoing) and will continue....for perhaps another 20 - 50 years. From the chaos "one of two alternate and very different paths" will emerge.

The present system won't survive. A new one will replace it. It will not be capitalism as we know it, but may be far worse or far better (more democratic and egalitarian). Determining the outcome is "the major worldwide political struggle of our times."

In the short-term, we're moving into a "protectionist world (forget about so-called globalization)." Governments are getting more into production - even in America and Britain. We're also moving more into "populist government-led redistribution," either in a left-of-center social democratic form or a far right authoritarian one. "And we are moving into acute social conflict within states, as everyone competes over the smaller pie. In the short-run, it is not, by and large, a pretty picture."

[quiksilva]

Hmm it all sounds very clever, so what do you suggest find a cave and buy stocks in guns and ammo?

I like stories like this because they get the bears even more bearish, creating ever better opportunities for the cash rich. The cashed up will be able to acquire assets at increasingly low levels, and once a few take a plunge (and they will, everything and everyone has a price) more people will line up to get in on the act and then the opportunities will dry up and what remains gets more expensive....

[midas]

Hmm it all sounds very clever, so what do you suggest find a cave and buy stocks in guns and ammo?

I like stories like this because they get the bears even more bearish, creating ever better opportunities for the cash rich. The cashed up will be able to acquire assets at increasingly low levels, and once a few take a plunge (and they will, everything and everyone has a price) more people will line up to get in on the act and then the opportunities will dry up and what remains gets more expensive....

quiksilva its up to you how you react to these kind of opinions.

the " bulls " assume we are all going to go back to " normal " sometime...............

What is " normal " and what is the timeline - if you read carefully what this guy is saying- maybe this

is the new normality for a long time- wait until you count the unemployment lines around the world in say June

next year..................then you can judge how many " cash rich " buyers you can find ?

[pkrv]

Hi Bingobongo - you replied (sort of) and you know what, that is something I personally would like to encourage. I know you and I do not get on, but actually you do post material, unfortunately mostly negative stuff. But in the past I have read different outcomes to the ones you find. So yes you do contribute. Whilst I concur with many of the posts above I did also hit the report button when things got personally abusive - that you got through that is something to consider.

However that you are focusing on Thailand issues whilst you are US based (and NO I am not US bashing) I think that unless things are done (and they haven't been, apart to line a few religious maniacs pockets, god (no pun intended) never buy property in a country run by religious maniacs (sorry donx ];-)) your US position in relation to the Thai property market is going to be irrelevant. Thais will be looking to buy US property not the other way around.

[quiksilva]

Hmm it all sounds very clever, so what do you suggest find a cave and buy stocks in guns and ammo?

I like stories like this because they get the bears even more bearish, creating ever better opportunities for the cash rich. The cashed up will be able to acquire assets at increasingly low levels, and once a few take a plunge (and they will, everything and everyone has a price) more people will line up to get in on the act and then the opportunities will dry up and what remains gets more expensive....

quiksilva its up to you how you react to these kind of opinions.

the " bulls " assume we are all going to go back to " normal " sometime...............

What is " normal " and what is the timeline - if you read carefully what this guy is saying- maybe this

is the new normality for a long time- wait until you count the unemployment lines around the world in say June

next year..................then you can judge how many " cash rich " buyers you can find ?

High levels of unemployment are nothing new, I fully expect this to be a severely difficult time, but here are always people with money even in bad times. Ask around this board about how many people are squirreling away their wealth, read their posts and you'll see that almost all are going to cash. Good, because sooner or later these guys n gals will be the ones who take us out of the recession.

I will not say that things will return to normal, because that infers that we usually live in some kind of equilibrium and I dont think that this has ever been the case. I do think however that what we are seeing is the downward curve into the next business cycle and that sooner or later we will come out the end of that trough, how long we rise coming out or even when that begins to happen is anybodies guess but I will not subscribe to end of the world as we know it theories.

The markets are falling but the sky is not.

[pkrv]

Hmm it all sounds very clever, so what do you suggest find a cave and buy stocks in guns and ammo?

I like stories like this because they get the bears even more bearish, creating ever better opportunities for the cash rich. The cashed up will be able to acquire assets at increasingly low levels, and once a few take a plunge (and they will, everything and everyone has a price) more people will line up to get in on the act and then the opportunities will dry up and what remains gets more expensive....

quiksilva its up to you how you react to these kind of opinions.

the " bulls " assume we are all going to go back to " normal " sometime...............

What is " normal " and what is the timeline - if you read carefully what this guy is saying- maybe this

is the new normality for a long time- wait until you count the unemployment lines around the world in say June

next year..................then you can judge how many " cash rich " buyers you can find ?

High levels of unemployment are nothing new, I fully expect this to be a severely difficult time, but here are always people with money even in bad times. Ask around this board about how many people are squirreling away their wealth, read their posts and you'll see that almost all are going to cash. Good, because sooner or later these guys n gals will be the ones who take us out of the recession.

I will not say that things will return to normal, because that infers that we usually live in some kind of equilibrium and I dont think that this has ever been the case. I do think however that what we are seeing is the downward curve into the next business cycle and that sooner or later we will come out the end of that trough, how long we rise coming out or even when that begins to happen is anybodies guess but I will not subscribe to end of the world as we know it theories.

The markets are falling but the sky is not.

Hi quiksilva - I agree with your thought process although those who have been 'squirreling' (are you UK?) have been doing so for several years. Unfortunately, and I did not understand this until recently we are actually making the problem worse. And worse still we (the west and Japan) are an aging population; we do not wish to take on more debt.

Have you seen this video/presentation? It sort <of> has a scary start which puts you off until you realise it is an actual quote - Get through to the goldsmiths tail and it is very illuminating. The guy has his own agenda but IMO it is REALLY, REALLY worth watching to the end. I would appreciate your thoughts – you know what I ran this by naam and asked him to slaughter my analysis if I had misunderstood. He declined and is now deeply embarrassed that his wife owns a farm from which they can, if necessary, take produce as payment. It's sort of that bad.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279

Edited December 19, 2008 by pkrv

[pkrv]

ohh good grief I can spell the word tale - I am just not good at this stuff - PKRV

[bendix]

Of course I don't give a hoot what your affairs are. It was you that came to teach others how superior and clever you are (but not how and why such a brain eneded up in Bangkok).

I was posted here. And now I'm posting myself elsewhere.

What else would you like to know?

I'm delighted you want to talk about me. Finally we've hit upon a mutual interest.

Talk to the likes on my ignore list.

Adio.

LMAO. I love it when they take their toys home in a huff, and pout that being put on an ignore list is some kind of punishment.

How cute.

[bingobongo]

hi bendix

you wouldnt know an asset from your own arse

anyway, if things are so peachy why the need for incentives? (that was rhetorical), if these fools think that it will pick up in the second half, i suggest they get out of the sun

Developers urge the govt to double tax allowances for home-buyers

Demand for residential projects this quarter has shrunk by more than half from the same period last year. This trend is expected to continue until the first half of next year.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/22...ss_30091564.php

[bingobongo]

first they said 2008, now they skip 2009 and 2010 all togther

oh why hath thou forsaken the bagholders ye real estate realtors/builders/bankers.......

Merry Christmas

Property market recovery in 2011

The company's research shows that transactions have fallen in all property segments in the current quarter, some of them significantly, others slightly. This is a sign that the property market may fall by 10 to 20 per cent next year, the steepest tumฌble since the financial crisis in 1997, she said.

"Demand for downtown condominiums, especially luxury condoฌminiums, has fallen significantly, from both domestic and foreign buyers, in the last quarter of 2008," she said.

http://nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/23/bus...ss_30091617.php

Edited December 24, 2008 by bingobongo

[rott]

This is all good stuff bingo, but I think most people on this forum are in broad agreement with you about the state of the economy and the real estate market. (Thailand and the world).

The question is when is this going to translate into lower condo prices on both new and re-sales in Thailand.

I would say "possibly" the 3rd quarter of 2009, anyone else got any thoughts

[think_too_mut]

This is all good stuff bingo, but I think most people on this forum are in broad agreement with you about the state of the economy and the real estate market. (Thailand and the world).

The question is when is this going to translate into lower condo prices on both new and re-sales in Thailand.

I would say "possibly" the 3rd quarter of 2009, anyone else got any thoughts

That's where the perversion is: it won't lower the asking prices but it will make sale difficult and resale impossible (it's already near there).

So, the dwindling number of new entrants won't get it cheaper and existing ones are stuck for life with whatever they hold.

[quiksilva]

This is all good stuff bingo, but I think most people on this forum are in broad agreement with you about the state of the economy and the real estate market. (Thailand and the world).

The question is when is this going to translate into lower condo prices on both new and re-sales in Thailand.

I would say "possibly" the 3rd quarter of 2009, anyone else got any thoughts

That's where the perversion is: it won't lower the asking prices but it will make sale difficult and resale impossible (it's already near there).

So, the dwindling number of new entrants won't get it cheaper and existing ones are stuck for life a while until the markets recover with whatever they hold.

Agreed, with one minor modification.

Edited December 26, 2008 by quiksilva