Just When I Decide To Move, It All Falls Apart

[wamberal]

You should have some of your retirement funds invested in growth assets

Please share your tips with us !

There have been several threads over the years on this subject. Unless you are very rich, and can definitely live for your whole lifetime on interest (or a mixture of interest and some capital - a bit risky and difficult to manage) anybody contemplating retirement needs to have a hedge against inflation.

The only hedge that I can think of against inflation is to have some of your money in growth assets - maybe investment property, or maybe shares. My wife and I are fortunate, we have all our money in growth assets - mostly shares, but also some unit trusts. The value of these assets goes up over the long term, although of course they have gone down significantly in the last year or so.

The point is, that we do not care what the value of these assets is, as long as they continue paying dividends and distributions - the size of which increases faster than the rate of inflation.

[wamberal]

I might as well stay in Australia, be bored out of my skull and just wait to die.

What's so boring about Australia?

In my humble opinion, relationships are what makes life interesting. The lack of meaningful relationships makes life boring.

Some people, maybe the OP, maybe not, go looking for relationships in places like Thailand, because they cannot find them in their home country.

My wife and I go back to Thailand every year or so, so that she can visit her family. We are based in a luxury serviced apartment in central Bangkok, with absolutely all available mod cons, and I am bored out of my skull, frankly. We can afford to live in Thailand, or in Australia, and Australia is so far ahead on all counts that there is no contest.

[elektrified]

We're all in the same boat dennis3506! Everyone in the world is affected by the huge declines in the financial markets, currency fluctuations, interest rates, etc. I've lost 40% of the value of my "blue chip" investments which I had 'planned' on using to live on here in Thailand. The European economies were holding up very strong. Now, they have come unglued. What can we do? Things will turn around but it will take some time.

Don't buy a condo. Now is not the time. Rent for a year or so. Ride out the storm. Living expenses are cheaper up in the north. You can rent a beautiful home cheap. Like others suggest, get to enjoy sticky rice and inexpensive market foods, cut back on bars and nightclubs, just enjoy the simple things in life and the beautiful country. Buy medical insurance to protect what you have, etc... When things turn around financially, you can adjust your lifestyle accordingly.

Remember, you are not alone. We are all in this mess together.

[geriatrickid]

The OP is prudent for opting on the fixed interest rate at this point in time. The value of those "growth" investments is mostly negative and will be so for at least the next few months to a year until the Int'l markets right themselves. Investing in "growth" funds now is the same as pissing the money way. Better to wait until the markets are calmer.

To the OP, go for it and follow the renting advice for at least a year until you find someplace you like. Thailand has been spared the pain of the USA and the EU now, but it's a heavily leveraged country and the credit crunch will hit Thailand soon enough. the Thai financial system is neither strong enough nor structured to provide the bailouts that one now sees in the EU and USA. That means to me that real estate prices will correct in the next year and that if you wait it out you will be able to save on the purchase of a home.

The THB situation is similar to the CAD$. Last year at this time it was trading at par with the US$. Canadian manufacturers were crying the blues and losing business. This year, the $CAD has crashed and its down at the $0.80 USD level. Canada is the only G7 country to still be running government surpluses and to have a banking system relatively unharmed by the market meltdown, and yet it got hit hard in the last 2 months. The point being that if it can happen to Canada, it can and will happen to Thailand, which indicates to me, that he will be happier on the FX within the year.

I think the OP will be pleasantly surprised that his situation will improve within the year. If he can pull it off he might as well go for it now.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Dennis.........I can definitely sympathise with you as most of our money is in Oz and NZ. We also have seen it drop 30% compared to the baht. We are in the fortunate position to have income from the US so we don't have to touch our money in Oz or NZ.

We purchased a condo (which we are overjoyed with) about a year ago when the Oz was at 30/1 with the baht. I suggest you wait a bit before you buy as the Baht will drop in time and the AUD will recover as commodity prices go up. Look at it as a oppurtunity to check out some areas you may want to live in before you buy.

It is not really a investment it is more of a lifestyle you are getting. That is especially true if you plan to spend your future here. When the time comes you can most likely arrange for someone to look after you here cheaper than you can go into a nursing home in Oz.

In the long run I think you are better off buying a condo (but not just now) than renting. At least you cover that major cost for the forseeable future and don't have to worry about inflation and rent increases. Although it is not something to do lightly as there are many consideration that have to be made in buying in LOS

Dennis....Good luck in whatever you decide to do. I for one think LOS is a great place to live.

Edited November 13, 2008 by BEENTHEREDONETHAT

[Gravelrash]

The Thai Baht is immensly strong at the moment - strong to the point that exporters having been chewing their fingernails most of 2008. Coupled now with the so-called international credit crunch, Thailand is going to see substantial drop in orders from Western brand-name owners (who use this country as a manufacturing base for everything from Levi jeans to Pick-up trucks and sports apparel) as Western consumers start to feel the pinch.

... and just what has this got to do with your proposed move to Thailand??

The Thai Baht can't go on like this: it's my personal opinion that Thai fiscal policy is going to have to review the value of the Baht, and short of another devaluation (which saw the TB just about halve in value over a period of 8 months in the late 90's), we can expect to see a sharp reversal in the TB exchange rate sometime over 2009, or the first half of 2010. One thing I would not do at the moment is use forex to close a real estate/property purchase in Thai Baht. the chances are that sometime over the next 12 months you will wake one morning feeling very sick indeed (that you did).

.... at the very least, my advise to you would be to hold out till mid next year - by which time I am certain we will have seen the tide turn and the Baht heading back towards a more realistic level with major Western currencies. Should the Baht head back into the 20's (versus the U$D) that will put Thai exports under severe and unsustainable pressure - and will almost certainly force the reserve bank to act (devaluation?).

In short: the TB can't go on like this: it's pretty much as bad as can be tolerated (a situation which is going to be made worse in 2009 by the world economic downturn )- it will either turn around sometime over the next 6 - 12 months of its own accord, or it will be forced to. Either scenario is going to release for you substantialy more TB than you are going to get at the moment.

NB- I am expressing a personal opinion - and other than for earning a portion of my income forex trading on-line for a good few years now - I have no professional financial qualifications.

Always interesting to get an opinion from someone who knows more than most of us.

[Livinginexile]

My advice is : don't buy ANY real estate in Thailand. It will be a very poor investment, and extremely difficult to sell if possible at all.

There are many good rentals available and some good landlords as well!

My advice comes from almost five years experience in LOS both as a tenant and an owner. And from observing countless other farangs who feel they MUST own their living quarters.

Good advice;

Rent from a landlord like me that is making 12%

Who also picked up 30% from my Bkk realestate investment from the currency swap.

Ontop of that 30% capital growth on my assets.

Yeah...bad investment allright

Impossible to sell?...my god man where do you get that? did you once buy a US$15k box in the outer suburbs one time and still can't sell it?

I could sell mine tomorrow and allmost double my money (not counting my rental returns)

Sounds like Sour grapes to me

[zorro1]

My advice is : don't buy ANY real estate in Thailand. It will be a very poor investment, and extremely difficult to sell if possible at all.

There are many good rentals available and some good landlords as well!

My advice comes from almost five years experience in LOS both as a tenant and an owner. And from observing countless other farangs who feel they MUST own their living quarters.

Good advice;

Rent from a landlord like me that is making 12%

Who also picked up 30% from my Bkk realestate investment from the currency swap.

Ontop of that 30% capital growth on my assets.

Yeah...bad investment allright

Impossible to sell?...my god man where do you get that? did you once buy a US$15k box in the outer suburbs one time and still can't sell it?

I could sell mine tomorrow and allmost double my money (not counting my rental returns)

Sounds like Sour grapes to me

Hey mate you nailed it. Us landlords live rent free and have a sudden currency exchange profit of 30% and possibly 40% in next year. Oh and heaven forbid maybe even "capitol growth"

poor renters ripping up big bucks. But we love them bless their cotton socks..

[torrenova]

Whilst the baht is indeed strong, it is the relative weakness of other currencies that have been trading over their medium and long term averages for years against THB. The USA is near bankrupt, the UK is totally screwed and even the mighty Euro is feeling the pinch. AUD ran out of steam on the back of a commodities boom and reducing interest rates which were too high over the last 36 months.

First half of 2009 will see nothing happen as we digest just how bad things are going to get. If things are not better by 4th quarter 2009 then I wouldn't worry about FX rates and would start to think about hiding money under the bed.

[wamberal]

My advice is : don't buy ANY real estate in Thailand. It will be a very poor investment, and extremely difficult to sell if possible at all.

There are many good rentals available and some good landlords as well!

My advice comes from almost five years experience in LOS both as a tenant and an owner. And from observing countless other farangs who feel they MUST own their living quarters.

Good advice;

Rent from a landlord like me that is making 12%

Who also picked up 30% from my Bkk realestate investment from the currency swap.

Ontop of that 30% capital growth on my assets.

Yeah...bad investment allright

Impossible to sell?...my god man where do you get that? did you once buy a US$15k box in the outer suburbs one time and still can't sell it?

I could sell mine tomorrow and allmost double my money (not counting my rental returns)

Sounds like Sour grapes to me

Depends totally on your timeframe. How long have you owned your investment property? How long do you intend to own it, how is it being maintained - can you definitely count on your property being in good condition in, say, 10 years' time? Twenty years' time?

Maybe a freestanding house is a good long-term option. I, for one, would have grave doubts about the wisdom of relying on income from a condominium other than at the top of the market, where there is a reasonable chance that the owners and management will continue to spend the money needed to keep the property in reasonable condition.

[Maizefarmer]

My advice is : don't buy ANY real estate in Thailand. It will be a very poor investment, and extremely difficult to sell if possible at all.

There are many good rentals available and some good landlords as well!

My advice comes from almost five years experience in LOS both as a tenant and an owner. And from observing countless other farangs who feel they MUST own their living quarters.

Good advice;

Rent from a landlord like me that is making 12%

Who also picked up 30% from my Bkk realestate investment from the currency swap.

Ontop of that 30% capital growth on my assets.

Yeah...bad investment allright

Impossible to sell?...my god man where do you get that? did you once buy a US$15k box in the outer suburbs one time and still can't sell it?

I could sell mine tomorrow and allmost double my money (not counting my rental returns)

Sounds like Sour grapes to me

That sounds very impressive indeed. I've lived and worked in Thailand all my adult life (and have 3 apartments in Bangkok - which I rent through an agency), and that is an impressive investment record you tell - but the one very important detail you fail to share with us all is the time frame in which those figures were achieved.

It certainly was not within the last 12 - 18months was it? - and that really is an important consideration for the OP.

Do you feel purchasing now (to rent or live in) could be a good idea?

You do understand that like China and India (which all share large manufacturing basis's), the general consensus amongst economists is that Thailand will not feel the impact of the so-called credit crunch and world economic downturn at the same time as the West. China, India and Thailand all run on economic models that feel the above consequences some 12 - 18 months afterwards - as the manufacturing contracts in place at the start of the problem in the West get fullfilled and do not get renewed. That is going to happen this coming year (2009).

My point is this: your investments were made in a very different economic climate. I'd be very suprized if anyone could demonstrate your figures making the same sort of investments now.

[thaibkk]

djeez, you need at least $500 a week ?

just live like thais live... go eat where they eat

maybe learn the language , will bring you much advantage

stay off hookers / booze / stuff like that

i just need $500 a month

[yabaaaa]

Just spent three months in Thailand (been many times before) before deciding that I was definitely going to make a permanent move on a retirees visa.

When I arrived at the beginning of August the exchange rate was 31 baht to the Aussie dollar, now it's 23. That makes buying a condo 30% more expensive if I transfer money now.

Also on the news this morning it was predicted that interest rates would fall to 4% in Australia. As the bulk of my income is derived from fixed term deposits that means I'm getting 50% less income.

It all seems to be conspiring against me to make the move at this stage, but what do I do, sit tight and wait for everything to improve? That could be years, and unfortunately I don't have a lot of "good" years left in me.

Let's face it, Thailand is relatively cheap, but if you want to enjoy a good lifestyle (and I don't mean in a village) you still need at least A$500 a week to live.

Any comments?

Thats nothing I spent 15 years with my girlfriend in the UK and we decided to move to Madeira so I sold my house went to live with her in her house spent my house sale money on land in Madeira and then she told me she wanted to split up!! I also had some land in Spain which i had a buyer for in cash but there was a border dispute with the Spanish neighbour and the buyer backed out after 3 months all as the prices and Spanish market started to collapse, i would have been about 10 million baht richer by now. On the Plus side i met my now wife (first time i ever got married)

Still got the land in Madeira and Spain and will just forget it for 10 years now.

Fortunatley I bought some condos here when the baht was at 72 to the £ and by now I was hoping to have retired at 45 but looks like due to world events i will have to keep plodding on in the UK which of course means for 5 months Im there then come here for 2.5 months per time which aint so easy on either of us however long term hopefully all will be well.

Always remember it could be worse!!

[skorchio]

Just spent three months in Thailand (been many times before) before deciding that I was definitely going to make a permanent move on a retirees visa.

When I arrived at the beginning of August the exchange rate was 31 baht to the Aussie dollar, now it's 23. That makes buying a condo 30% more expensive if I transfer money now.

Also on the news this morning it was predicted that interest rates would fall to 4% in Australia. As the bulk of my income is derived from fixed term deposits that means I'm getting 50% less income.

It all seems to be conspiring against me to make the move at this stage, but what do I do, sit tight and wait for everything to improve? That could be years, and unfortunately I don't have a lot of "good" years left in me.

Let's face it, Thailand is relatively cheap, but if you want to enjoy a good lifestyle (and I don't mean in a village) you still need at least A$500 a week to live.

Any comments?

Isn't it amazing how fast it all went tits-up? I left a builder working away in my apartment when I was back in Ireland, and now off in work, I am away 2 months in total. I owe the builder 50,000B - thats was 1000 euro a few months ago, now I'll be lucky if 1000 POUNDS will cover it when I get back. And the Aussie has performed almost as bad......

I am waiting for the global slowdown to register in the Thai economy, but it hasn't yet. This is the only way I can see Xrates moving in the near term.......otherwise my spending will have to come in a bit...

[zorro1]

djeez, you need at least $500 a week ?

just live like thais live... go eat where they eat

maybe learn the language , will bring you much advantage

stay off hookers / booze / stuff like that

i just need $500 a month

ermm that's why were all here isn't it? Oh that's right some came for the culture As some one else said may as well go back to OZ and be bored out of your scull.

[mcbride]

It is simple. You don't have enough money at this time to move to Thailand. Don't let some of these people on this forum BS you. Your situation is not the same as their situation. In the end, if you come and live here who has to pay the price of your mistake? You say you don't have many good years left...how old are you?

[bingobongo]

I might as well stay in Australia, be bored out of my skull and just wait to die.

What's so boring about Australia?

boring people are bored

[spiderman2]

I might as well stay in Australia, be bored out of my skull and just wait to die.

What's so boring about Australia?

boring people are bored

You mean you come on Thaivisa for excitement?

Or because youre bored?

[bingobongo]

I might as well stay in Australia, be bored out of my skull and just wait to die.

What's so boring about Australia?

boring people are bored

You mean you come on Thaivisa for excitement?

Or because youre bored?

neither, i come here for information

Edited November 18, 2008 by bingobongo

[spiderman2]

I might as well stay in Australia, be bored out of my skull and just wait to die.

What's so boring about Australia?

boring people are bored

You mean you come on Thaivisa for excitement?

Or because youre bored?

neither, i come here for information

The general forum and most TV threads are full of bickering know it all sexpats....... .not much worthy information to be found.......... only idle tittletattle.

[justcruisin]

Dennis,

Just go ahead and do the move,world markets are in a state of flux and wherever you are located it will be the same.

I retired here about 14Months ago,purchased my own condo and have never been happier,especially when i got money over at 30.22Bht/$.

You will be surprised at how inexpensive you can live here for.I have a car and two motorcycles,a new 2 bed apartment,oh and a new G/F !

Just do your sums on an absolutely worst case financial scenario,rent and stay away from the nightlife and eat local food.

The Bht will come down eventually and the sharemarkets will recover.

It is a lot easier livng here than trying to do the same in Aus with the high living cost and taxation regime.

[wamberal]

It is a lot easier livng here than trying to do the same in Aus with the high living cost and taxation regime.

Depends on your circumstances. Tax is low, if you take advantage of dividend imputation. We pay about 5% tax on our income - we have basically all our financial assets in Australian shares and managed funds.

Living costs in Thailand could get pretty high if you have medical problems, and no insurance. They could also rise significantly if, and when, your girlfriend's family needs some financial assistance - this tends to happen in a lot of Thai-Farang relationships sooner or later.

What about the challenges of growing old in Thailand? Who will you trust to look after you? What happens if you need some kind of assisted living regime?