Lies Lies And Chartists

[churchill]

As with statistics one can adapt a chart to ones beliefs ? True or not

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/chan120608.html

Bullish on Gold for next week

Edited December 7, 2008 by churchill

[churchill]

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/burak120608.html

Bearish on Gold for next week

[churchill]

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/rosen120608.html

and in the middle !

[lannarebirth]

I didn't look at the charts to see if I agree with the methodology used, but I would note that the time frame being discussed is very important. Charts can have ST buy signals withing the context of IT and LT downtrends. So many people only look at price, but tme is at least as important.

Take the $USD for instance (or the GBP for that matter) Both are in Very LT downtrends, but one has just rallied significantly within that downtrend (after making fresh all time lows) and the other we'll be watching to see if it eventually makes new lows in its long established downtrend as well.

Edited December 7, 2008 by lannarebirth

[PCA]

As with statistics one can adapt a chart to ones beliefs ? True or not

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/chan120608.html

Bullish on Gold for next week

suggesting Jacky Chan should stick with Kung <deleted>.

[churchill]

A chart can only tell you how something is trending , it cannot tell you what is going to happen tomorrow - depending on which reference points one takes from the past one can get and give different projections . Rosen - chartist in post No 3 says that the pound in bottoming - therefore due for a bounce in the short term !? Even if the pound does make new lows in the short term to establish a down trend , what happens if the $ starts to looses its lustre , presumably them the pound may go into an uptrend - what if what if ?

Charts can only tell you the direction today and a probable trend for tomorrow - but how high is that probability 50/50 or greater ?

And is there a standard methodology for chartists ? or is it up to the individual .

[lannarebirth]

A chart can only tell you how something is trending , it cannot tell you what is going to happen tomorrow - depending on which reference points one takes from the past one can get and give different projections . Rosen - chartist in post No 3 says that the pound in bottoming - therefore due for a bounce in the short term !? Even if the pound does make new lows in the short term to establish a down trend , what happens if the $ starts to looses its lustre , presumably them the pound may go into an uptrend - what if what if ?

Charts can only tell you the direction today and a probable trend for tomorrow - but how high is that probability 50/50 or greater ?

And is there a standard methodology for chartists ? or is it up to the individual .

What most people fail to comprehend is that while charts may present price at given points of time, what they really show is human behavior under differing market conditions. Proper construction of charts and proper interpretation do give one a probablistic edge, if one also employs proper trade and money management. Nothing is ever cast in stone, but there are certainly many well known (and lesser known) cycles that if charted properly, can enhance ones trading/investing results. The biggest problem most people have is that they seek out too much information. No need to really. Pick a view, any view. Then pick a parameter that will make your view wrong. You'll either be right, right away, or right very shortly.

Edited December 7, 2008 by lannarebirth

[PCA]

A chart can only tell you how something is trending , it cannot tell you what is going to happen tomorrow - depending on which reference points one takes from the past one can get and give different projections . Rosen - chartist in post No 3 says that the pound in bottoming - therefore due for a bounce in the short term !? Even if the pound does make new lows in the short term to establish a down trend , what happens if the $ starts to looses its lustre , presumably them the pound may go into an uptrend - what if what if ?

Charts can only tell you the direction today and a probable trend for tomorrow - but how high is that probability 50/50 or greater ?

And is there a standard methodology for chartists ? or is it up to the individual .

As you say, a chart cannot tell you what is going to happen tomorrow. The only thing you can see in a chart is where the price is now in relation to where it was before. You can see in a chart whether there is a trend going on and where the price will most likely go until facing a level of support or resistance. What can be learned is how to spot a trend at its very beginning and how to jump on the train when it starts moving. Beyond what I said which sounds very simple there has to be mentioned that every market has it's own anatomy which makes it harder to stick with fix rules. Gold for example is a market that hardly makes anybody happy except those who control and manipulate it.

Edited December 7, 2008 by PCA