The Sterling (gbp Thread

[chiang mai]

We're now seeing the start of the reversal of Euro/GBP and this should continue for quite a while. Could be some good news in store for Cable and GBP/THB in the next few weeks.

[ArranP]

Analysts believe alot of the the negative news is already priced in on the GBP, and state it is cheap at the moment.

I switched 31st January at 1.4624

Edited January 6, 2009 by ArranP

[Merangue]

So to boil this down for a complete layman.

Are we expecting a small improvement in the GBP to Thai Baht over the next 2 months or not? If so does anyone want to hazard a guess by how much by March? 54? 58? More? Less?

I have been predicting to my friends that we may return to about 55 mid march but i am working off hunches, tea leaves and totally uneducated guess work.

You all seem to understand this stuff a tad better than i do

[mommysboy]

So to boil this down for a complete layman.

Are we expecting a small improvement in the GBP to Thai Baht over the next 2 months or not? If so does anyone want to hazard a guess by how much by March? 54? 58? More? Less?

I have been predicting to my friends that we may return to about 55 mid march but i am working off hunches, tea leaves and totally uneducated guess work.

You all seem to understand this stuff a tad better than i do

The analysts seem to agree with you.

Basically, it appears the Thai bt's fortunes are broadly linked to the dollar's fortunes. The consensus appears to be the pound could recover 10% against the dollar in the next few months (I'm not sure as soon as March). Hence it could recover as much as that against the bt.

Further the bt is regarded as somewhat overvalued anyway and is certainly being supported by BOT buying.

So there is probably going to be an upward turn that may even be marked.

[chiang mai]

So to boil this down for a complete layman.

Are we expecting a small improvement in the GBP to Thai Baht over the next 2 months or not? If so does anyone want to hazard a guess by how much by March? 54? 58? More? Less?

I have been predicting to my friends that we may return to about 55 mid march but i am working off hunches, tea leaves and totally uneducated guess work.

You all seem to understand this stuff a tad better than i do

The analysts seem to agree with you.

Basically, it appears the Thai bt's fortunes are broadly linked to the dollar's fortunes. The consensus appears to be the pound could recover 10% against the dollar in the next few months (I'm not sure as soon as March). Hence it could recover as much as that against the bt.

Further the bt is regarded as somewhat overvalued anyway and is certainly being supported by BOT buying.

So there is probably going to be an upward turn that may even be marked.

Given that the BOT foreign reserves continue to increase month on month it's difficult to imagine what the Bank is using to support the Baht against USD! Seriously, if BOT is supporting the Baht by selling USD in order to keep the Baht articifically high, as we have all believed thus far, where is the money comming from given that the foreign reserves never seem to drop? The only possible answers seem to be that BOT is not selling US or that the volume they are selling is so small as to be negligible

But to answer the previous question: GBP will almost certainly continue to improve against the EURO from this point onwards albeit the market will probably make yet another attempt to achieve parity before that exercise dies off and the Pound claws back some ground. Whether or not that exercise has an impact on GBP/THB is another story since the linkage to THB is with USD and not EURO. Personally I would expect to see some improvement in GBP/THB but have no idea how much and when.

[Naam]

Given that the BOT foreign reserves continue to increase month on month it's difficult to imagine what the Bank is using to support the Baht against USD! Seriously, if BOT is supporting the Baht by selling USD in order to keep the Baht articifically high, as we have all believed thus far, where is the money comming from given that the foreign reserves never seem to drop? The only possible answers seem to be that BOT is not selling US or that the volume they are selling is so small as to be negligible

in my opinion it does not take huge sums for the BOT to prop up an (internationally) insignificant currency like THB. it's not 1997 when speculators onshore and offshore attacked asian currencies.

[chiang mai]

So if the assumption is that BOT is propping up the Baht at the expense of the Dollar and this is only costing them small amounts by way of foreign reserves, their need to devalue the Baht is not driven by the cost of their effort to do so but more by their need to remain competitive in global and in particular local regional markets. That scenario to me spells out a strong Baht from this point onwards.

[Merangue]

Very interesting discussion point that the THB on the global market is so unimportant that it has not been effected much by the global crisis, the domestic political and financial turmoil or the expected dip in tourism.

Does this mean that as the Thai baht has already been debased enough by the shenanigans of the last few years anyway that few if any of the big boys were truly investing in thailand and that it cannot go much lower anyway?

Is it in fact more of a new floating point for it on the international markets anyway?

It would be strange if a currency gains new strength from its relative weakness over the last few years.

Not sure if that makes sense having re read it

Edited January 6, 2009 by Merangue

[Naam]

Very interesting discussion point that the THB on the global market is so unimportant that it has not been effected much by the global crisis, the domestic political and financial turmoil or the expected dip in tourism.

that is a misinterpretation. THB is (my opinion) indeed an unimportant currency. therefore interventions by the BOT can be carried out with relatively small sums. inspite of the fact that Thailand's foreign currency reserves have increased steadily i don't see any other possibility which kept THB rather stable vs. USD and therefore strong vs. other currencies.

[LaoPo]

Very interesting discussion point that the THB on the global market is so unimportant that it has not been effected much by the global crisis, the domestic political and financial turmoil or the expected dip in tourism.

that is a misinterpretation. THB is (my opinion) indeed an unimportant currency. therefore interventions by the BOT can be carried out with relatively small sums. inspite of the fact that Thailand's foreign currency reserves have increased steadily i don't see any other possibility which kept THB rather stable vs. USD and therefore strong vs. other currencies.

The increase of Foreign reserves might still grow a little because of export orders (in USD) which were placed some months ago, but not much I think. After December 2008 it will be interesting to see if the interventions by the BOT will carry on...

...and why.

and there we go:

edit:

"Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Natural rubber futures gained for a second day after the yen fell to a one-month low against the dollar and Thailand, the biggest exporter, said it may buy as much as 200,000 metric tons from growers to support prices."

>snip<

"Rubber for June delivery, the most-active contract, added 6.6 percent to settle at 154.6 yen a kilogram ($1,651 a ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.

Futures also advanced on expectation supply from Thailand will decrease, Sugata said. Thailand may buy as much as 200,000 tons from growers and keep it in storage to reduce supply after prices more than halved last year, Somchai Charnnarongkul, director-general of the farm ministry’s Department of Agriculture, said in an interview yesterday.

The agricultural ministry will seek 4 billion baht ($114 million) to fund the price-support plan, Somchai said. The government will provide funds for farmers to store the rubber in warehouses until prices rise to attractive levels, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said in an interview on Dec. 17.

Thai Supplies

Thailand may ship 2.6 million tons this year, compared with 2.75 million in 2008, as producers plan to pare production from 3 million tons, according to the Thai Rubber Association.

Rubber futures reached a six-year low of 99.8 yen on Dec. 5, plunging 72 percent from the 28-year high of 356.9 yen June 30 as a global recession cut auto sales and forced carmakers to reduce output, leading to a drop in tire demand."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=a.Cx1nOW5fK8

LaoPo

Edited January 6, 2009 by LaoPo

[Ricardo]

The som-tam lady tells me, the government might launch a new campaign, to encourage ... erm ... 'nocturnal activities' & 'horizontal-jogging' for all. ?

This might be expected to lead directly to an increase in demand for rubber-products. And also be quite fun too !

N.B. Government Health Warning. Following this advise may cause your average TV-member to rise, or fall, up-to-you.

[kevkev1888]

So to boil this down for a complete layman.

Are we expecting a small improvement in the GBP to Thai Baht over the next 2 months or not? If so does anyone want to hazard a guess by how much by March? 54? 58? More? Less?

I have been predicting to my friends that we may return to about 55 mid march but i am working off hunches, tea leaves and totally uneducated guess work.

You all seem to understand this stuff a tad better than i do

53.4 today come on you GBP!!!!!!!

60 by March????

[chiang mai]

So to boil this down for a complete layman.

Are we expecting a small improvement in the GBP to Thai Baht over the next 2 months or not? If so does anyone want to hazard a guess by how much by March? 54? 58? More? Less?

I have been predicting to my friends that we may return to about 55 mid march but i am working off hunches, tea leaves and totally uneducated guess work.

You all seem to understand this stuff a tad better than i do

53.4 today come on you GBP!!!!!!!

60 by March????

As of today it's going the other way, 50.91 and falling, doesn't look good for March I'm afraid.

[Merangue]

So to boil this down for a complete layman.

Are we expecting a small improvement in the GBP to Thai Baht over the next 2 months or not? If so does anyone want to hazard a guess by how much by March? 54? 58? More? Less?

I have been predicting to my friends that we may return to about 55 mid march but i am working off hunches, tea leaves and totally uneducated guess work.

You all seem to understand this stuff a tad better than i do

53.4 today come on you GBP!!!!!!!

60 by March????

As of today it's going the other way, 50.91 and falling, doesn't look good for March I'm afraid.

Not sure this is not a blip. Will wait and see but honestly my gut tells me it will reach 55 by march. At least for ATM withdrawals and Travellers cheques. Perhaps not for cash though.

[chiang mai]

Things certainly aren't looking any better and it now seems that Vic and co may well be right in that we may yet see USD 1.30, bugger! As a point of trivia however, over recent days I've been through an exercise to compare income and living costs in the UK versus Thailand, I've done this to for my own personal benefit because I wanted to see what the advantages/disadvantages are of renting and or buying in one location versus the other - call me sad if you like but I needed to understand the answer! Interesting that the results showed the costs between the two countries, using an exchange rate of 45 Baht per Pound, is very very similar. Obviously the analysis will be different for many people based on the numbers and factors you use but for me the results showed little difference. I conclude that as the exchange rate strengthens the reason for living in Thailand for many expats is not some much an economic choice as a lifestyle one. Maybe this all part of Thailand's plan to get the higher quality tourist/expats they keep talking about!

[Naam]

Things certainly aren't looking any better and it now seems that Vic and co may well be right in that we may yet see USD 1.30, bugger! As a point of trivia however, over recent days I've been through an exercise to compare income and living costs in the UK versus Thailand, I've done this to for my own personal benefit because I wanted to see what the advantages/disadvantages are of renting and or buying in one location versus the other - call me sad if you like but I needed to understand the answer! Interesting that the results showed the costs between the two countries, using an exchange rate of 45 Baht per Pound, is very very similar. Obviously the analysis will be different for many people based on the numbers and factors you use but for me the results showed little difference. I conclude that as the exchange rate strengthens the reason for living in Thailand for many expats is not some much an economic choice as a lifestyle one. Maybe this all part of Thailand's plan to get the higher quality tourist/expats they keep talking about!

i can hardly believe what you are stating CM of course i have no idea whether the cost of living in Patong differs considerably from Pattaya but the only big difference i can think of is rent/immobile property. i have done a similar comparison (Thailand / Germany) a few years ago. the result was that my income was by far not sufficient to live exactly the way i live in Thailand. taxes alone would eat up 46% of my income and general living cost is approximately 2½ times higher.

not taken into consideration was the fact that i couldn't afford to buy or build a home similar to the one in which i live here. in my (our) case Thailand wins hands down as my living expenses are less than 25% of my income. looking at the situation from the perspective of a german taxpayer (assuming i was one) i can say we are living here free of charge and are able to reinvest the lion share of our income.

[syd barrett]

I have now psychologically accepted that the GBP is absolutely doomed. It will reach parity with the $US this year. I have therefore changed all my available GBP into $US. I don't think I can lose. Excellent link below:

The British Pound is Doomed: Daily Telegraph

Edited January 21, 2009 by syd barrett

[chiang mai]

Things certainly aren't looking any better and it now seems that Vic and co may well be right in that we may yet see USD 1.30, bugger! As a point of trivia however, over recent days I've been through an exercise to compare income and living costs in the UK versus Thailand, I've done this to for my own personal benefit because I wanted to see what the advantages/disadvantages are of renting and or buying in one location versus the other - call me sad if you like but I needed to understand the answer! Interesting that the results showed the costs between the two countries, using an exchange rate of 45 Baht per Pound, is very very similar. Obviously the analysis will be different for many people based on the numbers and factors you use but for me the results showed little difference. I conclude that as the exchange rate strengthens the reason for living in Thailand for many expats is not some much an economic choice as a lifestyle one. Maybe this all part of Thailand's plan to get the higher quality tourist/expats they keep talking about!

i can hardly believe what you are stating CM of course i have no idea whether the cost of living in Patong differs considerably from Pattaya but the only big difference i can think of is rent/immobile property. i have done a similar comparison (Thailand / Germany) a few years ago. the result was that my income was by far not sufficient to live exactly the way i live in Thailand. taxes alone would eat up 46% of my income and general living cost is approximately 2½ times higher.

not taken into consideration was the fact that i couldn't afford to buy or build a home similar to the one in which i live here. in my (our) case Thailand wins hands down as my living expenses are less than 25% of my income. looking at the situation from the perspective of a german taxpayer (assuming i was one) i can say we are living here free of charge and are able to reinvest the lion share of our income.

Indeed the answers will differ from person to person, based on the criteria and values used. I took average UK living costs at the detail level and adjusted them for my lifestyle although this didn't have a significant impact. I then took my actual living costs here in Thailand and since I understand these at the detail level very well this was easy. I used a Starting Capital amount and calculated over seven years using a 3% inflation figure for both countries (right or wrong, that's what I used) and a 5% per year investment return also - this was appropriate since my funds are virtually all in GBP.

In looking at Living Expenses I found that there are expenses in the UK that do not occur here in Thailand and that the cost of living in the UK is consistently less than 10% more per year than the living costs associated with Thailand over a seven year period. That 10% increase was offset by housing costs which were higher in the UK than in Thailand in the case of purchases but cheaper if rented - I arrived at those conclusions using my current rental costs and an exchange rate of 45 Baht per Pound - change the exchange rate to say 60 Baht per Pound and the answers change quite dramatically. BTW, my current rental costs are quite high at 35k month whereas UK renatl costs are currently cheaper. The numbers came out as follows:

Annual Living Costs UK = £22,413 vs Thailand at £27,414 (if renting) and £20,414 and £22,413 (if purchased).

The impact on capital over seven years, assuming a reasonable rate of increase in property values over that time ( I used 40% in the UK and 20% in Thailand) was interesting. The most effective return over the period was to rent in Thailand whereas buying property in the UK came second and caused only a 9% capital loss by comparison. Buying property in Thailand caused a 20% loss of capital and renting in the UK generated a 25% loss.

Much of the reasons for the way the answers come out has to do with offsets. For example, if you rent real estate, your capital earns a compound 5% over the period versus a ROI of 20% over seven years using the purchase method.

Finally, using the numbers I used it was fairly easy to offset taxes although this could not be done in the UK unless I purchased property. I agree however that when one compares the type, size and location of property between the two countries, the comparison starts to fall apart.

Edited January 21, 2009 by chiang mai

[Naam]

The impact on capital over seven years, assuming a reasonable rate of increase in property values over that time ( I used 40% in the UK and 20% in Thailand) was interesting. The most effective return over the period was to rent in Thailand whereas buying property in the UK came second and caused only a 9% capital loss by comparison. Buying property in Thailand caused a 20% loss of capital and renting in the UK generated a 25% loss.

that explains the mystery. comparisons -based on assumptions like the one above- are bound to have (in my view) strange results. i prefer to deal with tangible hard facts. e.g. your "reasonable increase in UK property value" has already become a fiction. in Germany we had zero increase during the last decade and the decade before (after renunification) property prices fell especiall when inflation adjusted. bottom line: a net loss for a period of nearly 20 years and the higher the value the exponentially higher the loss. we also look at things from completely different perspectives, e.g. in whatever house we owned we also lived. i never considered the roof over our heads an investment and never wasted a single thought concerning capital loss or gain. perhaps that was/is the reason why (except in one case of prime building land) i never made a single penny profit but lost a bundle

[chiang mai]

The impact on capital over seven years, assuming a reasonable rate of increase in property values over that time ( I used 40% in the UK and 20% in Thailand) was interesting. The most effective return over the period was to rent in Thailand whereas buying property in the UK came second and caused only a 9% capital loss by comparison. Buying property in Thailand caused a 20% loss of capital and renting in the UK generated a 25% loss.

that explains the mystery. comparisons -based on assumptions like the one above- are bound to have (in my view) strange results. i prefer to deal with tangible hard facts. e.g. your "reasonable increase in UK property value" has already become a fiction. in Germany we had zero increase during the last decade and the decade before (after renunification) property prices fell especiall when inflation adjusted. bottom line: a net loss for a period of nearly 20 years and the higher the value the exponentially higher the loss. we also look at things from completely different perspectives, e.g. in whatever house we owned we also lived. i never considered the roof over our heads an investment and never wasted a single thought concerning capital loss or gain. perhaps that was/is the reason why (except in one case of prime building land) i never made a single penny profit but lost a bundle

I take the view that property purchased in the UK in 2010 will realize a 40% increase by 2016 and that property purchased in Phuket next year will show a 20% gain over the same period. Neither figure seems unreasonable to me but others may well take a different view. I don't think however that it is safe to compare UK and German property values because they are such radically different markets. With the exception of the current bursting bubble, UK real estate investments have generally proved worthwhile if for no other reason than the fact the UK is a relatively small island with finite capacity for new housing, would that we are the same as Germany!

[SoCal]

Something about your analysis Chang Mai sounds all too like what got us into this mess in the first place.

Somehow I prefer Nam's view of seeing a home as a place to live, and perhaps raise a family, than as an investment to make money.

[Naam]

I take the view that property purchased in the UK in 2010 will realize a 40% increase by 2016 and that property purchased in Phuket next year will show a 20% gain over the same period. Neither figure seems unreasonable to me but others may well take a different view. I don't think however that it is safe to compare UK and German property values because they are such radically different markets. With the exception of the current bursting bubble, UK real estate investments have generally proved worthwhile if for no other reason than the fact the UK is a relatively small island with finite capacity for new housing, would that we are the same as Germany!

i [not so] humbly beg to differ with all your points. although i agree that a comparison of the property markets UK/Germany distorts the picture but your assumption "big country / small island" does not apply. the reasons why we did not have a price bubble is not the surplus of available land because there is no surplus except in the former "Democratic Republic" where there are no jobs and if there are jobs the salaries/wages are less than in the west. it is correct that we have 40% more landmass than UK but Germany's population is 37% higher than UK's. so where's the beef in this claim which -by the way- i have read before in Thaivisa.

the main reason is that german banks (although whoring around in Spain and Ireland with mortgage conditions unheard of in Germany) are much stricter granting loans than UK banks and you don't have a chance to buy any property without 40% own capital.

[patklang]

Something about your analysis Chang Mai sounds all too like what got us into this mess in the first place.

Somehow I prefer Nam's view of seeing a home as a place to live, and perhaps raise a family, than as an investment to make money.

Very good point,when i hear the doom mongers on here saying dont buy property.

My house cost me far less than 50% of what i would pay in uk and i am saving 15,000 a month rent by buying this,so if the house does not appreciate in value in the next 10 years i dont care.I bought the house at 71.9 baht to the pound and the cost in uk would be over 100,000 gbp.

happy happy

[chiang mai]

Something about your analysis Chang Mai sounds all too like what got us into this mess in the first place.

Somehow I prefer Nam's view of seeing a home as a place to live, and perhaps raise a family, than as an investment to make money.

Let me address these slurs on my character in order, so, you first:

In any of the many countries I have lived in I have always bought property as my home and never once with a view to making profit, I have always been far too focused on my professional career to do otherwise. If my investment of buying a home turned out to be profitable, at the point of sale, I would say great, but making money from real estate has never been an objective or a consideration for me. I have a history have having bought a derilict property in a wonderful location I then renovated it and owned it for many many years - never once did I wonder what the value of the property was and not once did I care, until went to sell. BUT, I would also never put myself into a situation whereby I thought I might lose money. I hope that puts things in context.

[Naam]

Somehow I prefer Nam's view of seeing a home as a place to live, and perhaps raise a family, than as an investment to make money.

different people have different priorities which should be respected. my (our) priority was always "comfortable home first", everything else is secondary. that applied when i was working in the desert, in the swamps and in the african bush although my working hours limited the time in which i could enjoy my home. during my meanwhile long years of retirement i even became some sort of maniac in this respect. i don't hesitate to spend a big bundle of money if i see that improvements can be made though i know for sure that in case i am going to sell i will not get a single Satang more.

[barrella]

It's a long old story but as a property owner in the UK (one empty at present) and (Thai law understood) us as in the wife and me owning property here in Bangkok I do not have rent. When we are here the wife pays, when we are in the UK I pay. The wife has been watching the exchange rates and she is asking, "When can we go to the UK next?" I can see in her eyes she wants to go shopping and pick up some bargains. The UK to her when we first met was a palace of extreme prices, high end shopping and overpriced warm beer. Now she see's it as a bargain avenue where guaranteed original brand names are cheap, fish & chips are and hot fresh, tradition real ales can be bought at knock down prices.

I did a similar thing to what has been posted about on here as in working out where is the best for me to live if I was single.

My Asia contracts have dried up. My present one runs out March and that's it, no sign of anymore. 2 tentative offers of full time employment or I can go full time working PR/Marketing/Sales for the wife businesess. After I ran the numbers If I went back to work in the UK and worked full time (if there is any jobs anymore) or went contract for a while it would work out a lot cheaper for me and my life style to live in the UK. Also unlike many expats I have no issue living back in the UK. Call me mad but I have no issue with the weather, I like the food and the beer is second to none (member of C.A.M.R.A.)

I agree with a previous poster, life style here is different but in my opinion not better or worse. Living here I miss out on many things I love in the UK. Living in the UK I would miss the women I love. I am gambling on this but I am willing to stick it out with her here. If her businesses went down the toilet then it would be a hard move for her to the UK but not for me.

I can see very hard times ahead for a lot of people maybe me and mine included. I felt at my age 35, I was in a good position and looking forward to the future but in present light it is not so good but not as bad as others. I feel very lucky compared to many of my UK friends, full time jobs that are looking threaten at best all buy to let mortgaged up to the hills on the promise of high equity returns ripe for there retirement. Now it is impossible to sell and if they do there is no equity in the sale with the double wammy of the tenants rent payments not keeping up with the mortgage interest. My very small set of property was bought without mortgage and the property here was bought with loans but as of 7 months ago are all paid. No debts but still not sure what the future brings.

Good luck to us all. See you at the bottom.

[chiang mai]

I take the view that property purchased in the UK in 2010 will realize a 40% increase by 2016 and that property purchased in Phuket next year will show a 20% gain over the same period. Neither figure seems unreasonable to me but others may well take a different view. I don't think however that it is safe to compare UK and German property values because they are such radically different markets. With the exception of the current bursting bubble, UK real estate investments have generally proved worthwhile if for no other reason than the fact the UK is a relatively small island with finite capacity for new housing, would that we are the same as Germany!

i [not so] humbly beg to differ with all your points. although i agree that a comparison of the property markets UK/Germany distorts the picture but your assumption "big country / small island" does not apply. the reasons why we did not have a price bubble is not the surplus of available land because there is no surplus except in the former "Democratic Republic" where there are no jobs and if there are jobs the salaries/wages are less than in the west. it is correct that we have 40% more landmass than UK but Germany's population is 37% higher than UK's. so where's the beef in this claim which -by the way- i have read before in Thaivisa.

the main reason is that german banks (although whoring around in Spain and Ireland with mortgage conditions unheard of in Germany) are much stricter granting loans than UK banks and you don't have a chance to buy any property without 40% own capital.

If your point is that the German banks have stricter lending criteria than UK banks, I can agree wholeheartedly- if it is that the housing supply/demand factors between the two counties are different I have trouble agreeing with you, mostly because I don't have the same snapshot in my head of the German housing picture that may have. But, I suspect it's a similar story to that of the French banks and credit card distribution, if you don't have the money on deposit you can't have the card, quite right too. As for a 40% deposit on housing I agree also, it's prudent and conservative lending practice.

[chiang mai]

It's a long old story but as a property owner in the UK (one empty at present) and (Thai law understood) us as in the wife and me owning property here in Bangkok I do not have rent. When we are here the wife pays, when we are in the UK I pay. The wife has been watching the exchange rates and she is asking, "When can we go to the UK next?" I can see in her eyes she wants to go shopping and pick up some bargains. The UK to her when we first met was a palace of extreme prices, high end shopping and overpriced warm beer. Now she see's it as a bargain avenue where guaranteed original brand names are cheap, fish & chips are and hot fresh, tradition real ales can be bought at knock down prices.

I did a similar thing to what has been posted about on here as in working out where is the best for me to live if I was single.

My Asia contracts have dried up. My present one runs out March and that's it, no sign of anymore. 2 tentative offers of full time employment or I can go full time working PR/Marketing/Sales for the wife businesess. After I ran the numbers If I went back to work in the UK and worked full time (if there is any jobs anymore) or went contract for a while it would work out a lot cheaper for me and my life style to live in the UK. Also unlike many expats I have no issue living back in the UK. Call me mad but I have no issue with the weather, I like the food and the beer is second to none (member of C.A.M.R.A.)

I agree with a previous poster, life style here is different but in my opinion not better or worse. Living here I miss out on many things I love in the UK. Living in the UK I would miss the women I love. I am gambling on this but I am willing to stick it out with her here. If her businesses went down the toilet then it would be a hard move for her to the UK but not for me.

I can see very hard times ahead for a lot of people maybe me and mine included. I felt at my age 35, I was in a good position and looking forward to the future but in present light it is not so good but not as bad as others. I feel very lucky compared to many of my UK friends, full time jobs that are looking threaten at best all buy to let mortgaged up to the hills on the promise of high equity returns ripe for there retirement. Now it is impossible to sell and if they do there is no equity in the sale with the double wammy of the tenants rent payments not keeping up with the mortgage interest. My very small set of property was bought without mortgage and the property here was bought with loans but as of 7 months ago are all paid. No debts but still not sure what the future brings.

Good luck to us all. See you at the bottom.

Good post, don't worry too much because it will be OK and at 35 you've got plenty of time on your side.

[SoCal]

CM,

Slur on your character? Really? You have my appologies. For what, I will bite my tongue.

Only making the point that people seeing their homes as a profit making tool, is what got us into this mess as a first place. You made this point, and if you do not see the irony, then I really don't know what to tell you.

Good luck with your real estate investments, and once again my appologies.

[pkrv]

Hi chiang mai - I think very oddly Naam is paying you a very deep compliment he is watching how you think. The only oddity I noted was I think you are Farang/Thai and this may be causing confusion. Is your perspective that a Thai income could now be used to effect a UK life style, taxes etc aside?

Edited January 21, 2009 by pkrv