Thailand's Ruling Coalition Consolidates Power With Byelection Results

[sabaijai]

Thailand's ruling coalition consolidates power with byelection results

Unity government increases majority in parliament by winning nearly 70% of contested seats

Ian MacKinnon in Bangkok

guardian.co.uk, Monday 12 January 2009 10.30 GMT

Thailand's shaky coalition government strengthened its hold on power today when it won most of the seats up for grabs in byelections that were the administration's first big test at the ballot box.

Initial results from yesterday's polls showed the government of the British-born prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, scooped 20 of the 29 seats being fought.

The poll verdict on the government, elected by parliament last month, offered the hope of stability after months of unrest that peaked when demonstrators opposed to the previous prime minister closed down Thailand's main international airport for eight days.

But the results will be a bitter blow for allies of the ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who had hoped to narrow Eton and Oxford-educated Abhisit's thin parliamentary majority.

Abhisit, 44, who plans to implement a £6bn stimulus package to revive Thailand's flagging economy and boost his popularity with the rural poor, immediately hailed the results as a vote to heal the political divisions.

"The results show that the public wants the country to move forward," he said. "People want to reduce the political rift. It also reflects that they want the government to solve the country's economic and social problems."

Most of the byelections were triggered when a constitutional court toppled the previous pro-Thaksin government and barred dozens of MPs from office for electoral fraud during the December 2007 general election.

Abhisit's Democrat party, which holds only 161 seats in the 480-seat parliament, cobbled together a parliamentary majority last month when it persuaded members of the previous governing party and some allies to defect.

In a piece of fancy political footwork, Abhisit's coalition was able to muster 235 MPs, giving it a slender majority of 37 that left it vulnerable to pressure from its allies in smaller parties. The victory in Sunday's polls bolsters its majority.

The result will boost the standing of the young and telegenic Abhisit, whose support is rooted in Bangkok's royalist elite, and may ease concerns that he lacks political experience.

"It will be easier [for the coalition] to pass measures to help boost the economy and ward off attempts to bring down the government," said Sukhum Nuansakul, a political scientist at Bangkok's Ramkhamhaeng University.

But Thailand remains deeply divided even though the dismissal of the last government ended six months of demonstrations that were often violent. They were replaced by smaller and more muted protests by supporters allied to Thaksin opposed to the Abhisit government, which was accused of staging a judicial coup.

[plachon]

A good result for the Democrats, the coalition and ultimately, democracy in Thailand. Looks like the Thaksinophiles must be rueing the fact his pockets are not as deep as they once were, or, heavens forbid the electorate are starting to seeing the Emperor without his clothes!

[Gravelrash]

Here is another perspective from Khi Kwai Blog

Why Prem Won the Day:

It looks really bad for Thaksin - and not merely because of the number of seats the alliance of Peua Thai and Pracharaj was able to win in yesterday’s by-election. Considering Newin’s defection, retaining 10 of the PPP’s old 13 seats is not a terrible result. Nor should the performance of the competition be considered much of a setback. Chat Thai Pattana basically held steady. The Democrat Party performed well in Central Thailand as well as the North, netting 7 additional seats. But the Democrats are no more a national party today than they were in 2007. And their victory in constituencies where DP candidates had placed respectably in the past reflects a modicum a good will towards Abhisit (in the wake of his rise to Prime Minister) that may or may not hold as his government tackles the many difficult problems Thailand faces today.

No, the opposition is in deep trouble for reasons that transcend the sheer number of seats it won or lost.

It should be kept in mind that Peua Thai’s rivals are not the Democrats, the Friends of Newin, or Chat Thai Pattana. Its main competition for political power are groups and institutions that do NOT participate in elections - the Privy Council, the military, and Bangkok’s blue-blooded elites. Given how effective these groups/institutions have been in the past months as they endeavored to dislodge the PPP from power, Peua Thai did not merely need to “hold” or pick up some seats. It needed a landslide that would show these institutions where the prachachon really stands. That’s why I noted in my pre-election preview that a satisfactory result for PTP would be 20+ seats. It was never about weakening the governing coalition by a couple of seats. It was about showing defectors that the people resented them. It was about showing powerful unelected institutions that the people would no longer take it lying down.

The by-elections, instead, signaled in no uncertain terms that any outrage against the military, the Privy Council, and the PAD is highly contained within a relatively small number of voters in a small number of provinces. Aside from the good result of the Democrats, who benefited from their enhanced national role, the majority of voters in the Northeast and Central Thailand simply went with local notables. Peua Thai and Pracharaj did well in Isan, but they actually lost (badly) old Thai Rak Thai bastions like Buriram 4, Ubon 2, and Ubon 3. Meanwhile, the well-oiled machines that are the Chart Thai Pattana’s or the Friends of Newin’s old patronage networks did quite well.

Back in the old days when the boss was in power, Thaksin was able to establish Thai Rak Thai as a force greater than the sum of its personalities. TRT soundly defeated local notabilities who didn’t sign on, to the point that even generally non-partisan local elections saw stiff competition to use the TRT’s label. Peua Thai is no longer able to do this. It seems powerless against its defectors - Newin’s faction, Peua Paendin, and Chat Thai Pattana paid no price for their betrayal. And it is itself much more dependent on its own factions and local notables to win seats, even in supposed strongholds. Simply put, the brand is badly damaged. Even the fact that the 10 seats won by the opposition are now shared between Peua Thai and Pracharaj (as opposed to being under the control of a single party) does not bode well for the cohesion of the coalition Thaksin built (or what’s left of it, anyway). Things are unravelling - back to a time when Thai political parties counted much less than the factions and local politicians within their ranks.

There are at least two profound ironies in all this. The first is that institutions supposedly charged with serving and protecting the country basically held a gun to the head of the Thai people, telling them that so long as they didn’t vote the way Prem and Anupong wanted the PAD could hold the entire nation hostage with impunity. The people responded by choosing the path of least resistance, meekly acquiescing to the poo yai’s implicit, but transparent enough commands. The other irony is that while Prem, the military, and the PAD grounded their opposition to Thaksin in their abhorrence of patronage, vote buying and corruption, the renewed salience of factions and local notables at the expense of political parties will make patronage, corruption, and vote-buying even more central to future election campaigns. We heard not a peep out of any of them when the Friends of Newin were bought, in bulk, into joining Abhisit’s government. Indeed, Prem and Anupong at least facilitated, if not directly orchestrated, the entire transaction.

Unfortunately, this sordid affair speaks to more than just Prem’s and Anupong’s hypocrisy (they only abhor corruption when it benefits people they don’t like). It speaks rather to their agenda and strategy. It is quite apparent, in particular, that the military and the Privy Council have no interest in ruling the country directly - in such a way, that is, that they can be held accountable for what they do in office (at least by public opinion if not through elections). The emptiness of Anupong’s repeated coup threats during Somchai’s tenure were a clear indication that the military wants no repeat of the whole CNS/Surayud fiasco, which the army undertook reluctantly in the first place. But they haven’t let go of the idea that they can call the shots behind the scenes. Throughout Thaksin’s tenure and beyond, their agenda has always been to restore Thailand to the kind of poo yai-dominated bureaucratic polity it has been for most of its post-absolutist history; it was never about making Thailand a better, cleaner “democracy.” In all this, the biggest challenge to the dominance of the army, the Privy Council, and the Bangkok elites is not Thaksin, but rather ANY strong, organized, national political party. So long as Thai politics remains factionalized, fragmented, personalized, parochial, corrupt, and patronage-based, their ability to run the show behind the scenes remains intact. At the same time, should anyone call them out on it, they can always point to the grotesque ineptitude and corruption of local politicians as evidence that powerful unelected institutions are actually needed to protect Thailand from itself and its own citizens.

That’s why Prem won the day yesterday. Not only are his main rivals wounded, perhaps mortally so. What’s more, the marionette he found in Abhisit is still as pretty and inanimate as it ever was.

[wayfarer108]

What an incredibly naive editorial blog. Khi Khwai indeed, assuming that when the 'people' elect TRT/PPP/PT that there's no coercion but that when they vote Democrat/coalition there is. Khi Khwai obviously wasn't following the daily news from 2001-2006.

[Siripon]

Mr Buffalo Droppings omits to mention that Thaksin literally bought up several parties, ie NAP, Chart Pattana, lock, stock and barrel. True, he was the first to make policies the main selling point and for that Thaksin will be remembered.

But TRT was the sum of one part- Thaksin. No dissent was tolerated, no rival to Thaksin permitted. All possible due to his enormous wealth.

An authoritarian masquerading as a man of the people.

[Plus]

Kiwi Kwai thinks that people had a choice between PTP on one side and privy council, military, and blue blooded elites on the other.

He listens too much to red propaganda, though he is right that this kind of thinking is restricted to only few contained areas (thank god!).

And what is this nonsense about Prem and Anupong running the show from behind the curtains? What show?

[hammered]

In a story on the melding of Bhum Jai Thai and Puen Newin there is this gem:

Meanwhile, a group of 20 Pheu Thai MPs were disappointed to adopt the Bhum Jai Thai banner after the Election Commission barred them.

Under the Constitution, MPs are banned from switching party's banner before the general election is called.

Full story at: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2009/01/14...cs_30093205.php

It seems that the government voting majority is getting bigger by the day and that Peau Thai face problems holding themselves together.

[Jai Dee]

EC to rule on remainder of by-election results by Jan 28

The Election Commission is expected on January 28 to complete the review of balloting results for nine House seats which are being disputed for campaign violations, EC member Sodsri Satayatham said on Thursday.

On Wednesday, the EC endorsed the by-election outcome to fill 20 House seats.

Sodsri said electoral investigators have been instructed to complete their reports on nine cases of alleged electoral fraud by next week.

Based on the reports, the EC will then decide whether to endorse the balloting or call for a revote.

Source: The Nation - 15 January 2009