Cbd Condo Prices Indestructable?

[pkrv]

pkrv,

i think i have offered more accurate info here than most others have regarding the market and real estate

what quiksilva did today, was reveal HIS true intentions. his graph was the biggest con job as misconstruing info i have ever come across. he has only really offered tidbits of info - ever, and only offered market info. after someone else has first mentioned it, or there was evidence of it in print.

do i ever push the envelope. well - i know where the economy and the markets are headed.

pkrv - a question - where do u keep ur pom poms?

shochu - did you know quiksilva and i have crossed swords? The matter was on freehold/leasehold. I think it would be fair to say he said his comments met market resistance...

quiksilva - is no innocent (by any stretch of the imagination ) but I am sorry you are demonstrating you have not grasped this stuff.

Well my pom poms are kept with my headless chicken outfit. Is that not what this about? Are we not combining recourses to work out what to do next to all our advantage? IMO we are in for some tough times… especially if dressed in the headless chicken outfit

[midas]

Thank you for your response, but you failed to prove your point. I see no reason whatsoever to read something you yourself said you read some 18 years ago and with predictions that were off the mark. Thanks, but no thanks.

Oh no sir they were NOT off the mark -maybe too early but definately not off the mark

But in any case the reason I quoted that was in response to quicksilva saying

" Late 2009 early 2010 could be an interesting time to get in the market ".

With the number of jobs being lost around the world now I dont agree

Edited February 5, 2009 by midas

[quiksilva]

u know what - i need to add something

quicksilva ,

that graph is LAME

u and i know that - that graph does NO JUSTICE to his research.

now i know u are desperate!!!!!!

IT IS HIS RESEARCH!

All I have done is show your man's graph from his new book irrational exuberance, and that is lame?

Flip flop much?

Edited February 5, 2009 by quiksilva

[donx]

Thank you for your response, but you failed to prove your point. I see no reason whatsoever to read something you yourself said you read some 18 years ago and with predictions that were off the mark. Thanks, but no thanks.

Oh no sir they were NOT off the mark -maybe too early but definately not off the mark

But in any case the reason I quoted that was in response to quicksilva saying

" Late 2009 early 2010 could be an interesting time to get in the market ".

With the number of jobs being lost around the world now I dont agree

Predicting a MAJOR DEPRESSION in the '90 which never happened (as of now we are in a recession) is OFF THE MARK.

EDIT: In case you don't believe me, watch the video at this link

Edited February 5, 2009 by donx

[midas]

Thank you for your response, but you failed to prove your point. I see no reason whatsoever to read something you yourself said you read some 18 years ago and with predictions that were off the mark. Thanks, but no thanks.

Oh no sir they were NOT off the mark -maybe too early but definately not off the mark

But in any case the reason I quoted that was in response to quicksilva saying

" Late 2009 early 2010 could be an interesting time to get in the market ".

With the number of jobs being lost around the world now I dont agree

Predicting a MAJOR DEPRESSION in the '90 which never happened (as of now we are in a recession) is OFF THE MARK.

EDIT: In case you don't believe me, watch the video at this link

Donx I really couldnt give a rats ar*e about the exact timing of a depression

- I am a lot more interested in WHY it happens ( when it does ) and what effect

it will have on us Go back to watching your clock

[donx]

Thank you for your response, but you failed to prove your point. I see no reason whatsoever to read something you yourself said you read some 18 years ago and with predictions that were off the mark. Thanks, but no thanks.

Oh no sir they were NOT off the mark -maybe too early but definately not off the mark

But in any case the reason I quoted that was in response to quicksilva saying

" Late 2009 early 2010 could be an interesting time to get in the market ".

With the number of jobs being lost around the world now I dont agree

Predicting a MAJOR DEPRESSION in the '90 which never happened (as of now we are in a recession) is OFF THE MARK.

EDIT: In case you don't believe me, watch the video at this link

Donx I really couldnt give a rats ar*e about the exact timing of a depression

- I am a lot more interested in WHY it happens ( when it does ) and what effect

it will have on us :jerk: Go back to watching your clock

OK, then midas, tell me did your 18 year old book actually correctly identify why we are in a recession - I think not.

EDIT: I suppose you never heard the term "timing is everything" used to describe financial decisions. Too bad your stuck in the '80s man!

Edited February 5, 2009 by donx

[midas]

OK, then midas, tell me did your 18 year old book actually correctly identify why we are in a recession - I think not.

For the same reasons as our friend George says - and Donx you cant argue about the timing of this

-its only 6 days old !

Soros says crisis could match Great Depression

Thursday, January 29, 2009

SIMON CARSWELL in Davos

FINANCIER GEORGE Soros believes the US banking system needs $1.5 trillion (€1.1 trillion) to be saved and that the current economic crisis could be worse than the 1930s Great Depression.

Mr Soros, who made $1 billion betting on the collapse of sterling in 1992, told reporters on the first day of the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos that bank bailouts by taxpayers and fiscal stimulus packages would not be enough to revive the global economy.

The Hungarian-born investor said governments would eventually have to help each other because individually they lack the “borrowing power” to protect their banking systems. He said there was “very serious troubles brewing in the peripheral countries”.

He said governments needed to isolate bad assets into bad banks, leaving them with existing capital, and move good assets to new banks that can raise money privately and which are “capable and eager to lend”. He said that shareholders and pension funds would be “wiped out” and that would be “a heavy price to pay”.

“But it would cleanse the banking system,” said Mr Soros. “It is a radical step but I don’t think the political will to do is currently available. Until we do it, we are going to be bumping along and not getting the economy going.”

He suggested the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should use its own international currency, known as special drawing rights, to pump more cash into the global economy.

He made his comments as the Washington-based IMF said it risked running out of money if it had to meet all potential claims and that the global economy would grow by just 0.5 per cent in 2009, the slowest pace since the second World War. The euro-zone economy will shrink by 2 per cent this year, according to the IMF.

The IMF warned that the world economy will come to a halt as more than $2 trillion of bad assets are clogging the financial system. The fund raised its estimate of total bank losses stemming from bad loans in the US to $2.2 trillion from $1.4 trillion in October.

The IMF blamed the restriction on lending to companies and consumers as the main reason for the collapse of the global economy.

Mr Soros said the widening gap between the cost of raising money from investors in Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal, and the rate charged to Germany, reflected “structural weakness in the construction of the euro” and the lack of a common fiscal authority.

Speaking in Davos, European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said the widening of government bond costs in the euro-zone posed no threat to the future of the currency.

In a rare note of optimism at Davos yesterday, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao said his country had set a target of 8 per cent economic growth this year, which he said was “an attainable target through hard work”.

Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin warned it was dangerous for the world to rely on the dollar as its reserve currency.

[donx]

Thank you for finally returning to the 21st century. I was worried about you for a little bit there old boy. If you watched the video in the link I posted recently, you'd see that George and those talking heads on CNN are all saying pretty much the same thing. We are in a recession that could, if governments don't do something drastically soon, could become as bad or worse than the great depression.

My take is that governments will do something. Things will get ugly for a few years, but I don't believe things will ever get as bad as the great depression.

Edited February 5, 2009 by donx

[midas]

Thank you for finally returning to the 21st century. I was worried about you for a little bit there old boy. If you watched the video in the link I posted recently, you'd see that George and those talking heads on CNN are all saying pretty much the same thing. We are in a recession that could, if governments don't do something drastically soon, could become as bad or worse than the great depression.

My take is that governments will do something. Things will get ugly for a few years, but I don't believe things will ever get as bad as the great depression.

It is far too easy to for you to just simply say " I don't believe things will ever get as bad as the great depression " - give us your FACTS ? Why dont you think that ?

These are some of the reason why I believe we ARE in a depression but WHO CARES what you call it -

it is what the FALLOUT will be on the Thai real estate market that really matters :-

Are we in a Depression?

" One should understand first of all, there is no definition for either recession or depression; they are variations of the same thing. So someone could rightly argue that the Great Depression wasn't really a Great Depression but more of a Great Recession on Crack. There is no line in the sand as it were.

In 1932 we were the world's greatest creditor nation. Today USA is the world's greatest debtor nation. Anyone who can read has known since 2001 when Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neil released his study on the state of US finances that we are essentially bankrupt as a nation. At that time we were some $43 trillion in debt. It's more like $100 trillion and growing daily now.

According to the BIS, there are $683 trillion dollars outstanding in derivatives worldwide. That's 11 times the world economy and still growing at a pace 300% faster than the economy. Why do we have $100,000 in derivatives for every man woman and child on earth? That's nuts.

John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics shows that the real unemployment rate as of today is over 17%. I see it going up to over 30% before we hit bottom. The government claimed unemployment increased by 525,000 in December, the real number was 975,000. On Monday of this week, the US increased an incredible 75,000. In one day.

It's going to get ugly. There are riots all over the world even now. Rioters have forced the government of Iceland to resign; Greece went through weeks of riots after police shot someone. When some minor incident takes place in Detroit or Chicago or Washington DC or Cleveland in the next couple of months, we can safely predict police will overact and start shooting people. But unlike Iceland and Greece, Americans are armed. It's going to get very ugly.

Gerald Celente of Trends Research predicts a revolution in the US. He's not wrong. We are involved in two incredibly stupid wars in which we stand to win nothing except bankruptcy. It was the involvement of the French in the American Revolution that led to the French Revolution when the Crown went bankrupt. We are in far worse financial shape today.

And we are financing yet another silly war on the part of Israel in Gaza. In 22 days of carnage, the Israelis managed to kill the same as 300,000 Americans if you consider we have 200 times the population. They attacked the concentration camp that they had created with the most deadly weapons available today. They accomplished nothing except to prove to the world once again that they are a rogue state who totally ignores all the rules of warfare. They have turned into what they most fear."

Edited February 5, 2009 by midas

[shochu]

quicksilva,

we both know u presented his work in a manner that distorts his work. i know his work very well and what i said was essentially what he says regarding housing.

anyone here can research his work and come to the same conclusion - BUT - what it does show is ur true colors and how desperate u are!

extremely pathetic on ur part to try and mislead people in that manner! why don't u show his work like he would have wanted people to see!!

sad, sad, sad!!!

ur manner of trying to downplay his work and highlight your industries speak volumes. please remember, i never mentioned his name back yonders WONDERING IF U WOULD as a sort of test to see where u stand. u obviously did not want too many people to know about his work - as u have shown - since it works against ur industries profits. the posts - mine - yours - speak for themselves.

get real - your mantra of trying to rise above the other industry players to try and be MORE than THEM was ur sales speech.

pkrv,

how does one get to the truer nature of the market when there are so many here on tv plying their trade. if i have wrongly insinuated anything towards u - then u have my apologies. and there is nothing wrong with keeping a set of pom poms , and a school uniform can add to the ensemble - for the other party of course!

[donx]

You just placed a large section of text within quotes so I am assuming these are not your words. I believe (sorry but you'll have to look for the facts yourself) that when doing so in a forum post that you are supposed to identify the source of the text.

EDIT: I am referring to midas's last post.

Edited February 5, 2009 by donx

[midas]

You just placed a large section of text within quotes so I am assuming these are not your words. I believe (sorry but you'll have to look for the facts yourself) that when doing so in a forum post that you are supposed to identify the source of the text.

EDIT: I am referring to midas's last post.

At least I am reading what the experts are saying.

What have you contributed that supports your "theory " ?

[donx]

You just placed a large section of text within quotes so I am assuming these are not your words. I believe (sorry but you'll have to look for the facts yourself) that when doing so in a forum post that you are supposed to identify the source of the text.

EDIT: I am referring to midas's last post.

At least I am reading what the experts are saying.

What have you contributed that supports your "theory " ?

I gave you a link. Did you watch the video?

[donx]

OK, so I found your "expert"

"Jan 30, 2009

Bob Moriarty

President: 321gold"

Now he doesn't have any reason for getting people all afraid of the future does he? I mean everyone knows we should be hoarding gold as fast as we can right now.

EDIT: Here is the entire editorial

Edited February 5, 2009 by donx

[midas]

You just placed a large section of text within quotes so I am assuming these are not your words. I believe (sorry but you'll have to look for the facts yourself) that when doing so in a forum post that you are supposed to identify the source of the text.

EDIT: I am referring to midas's last post.

Hey Donx here is another with the identified the source of the text.

Wed are waiting for your contribution

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?con...a&aid=12121

Worse than the Great Depression.

by Dr. Krassimir Petrov

Global Research, February 1, 2009

Worse than the Great Depression

So, why Worse Than The Great Depression? What makes me believe that the current depression will be worse than the Great Depression? I present 5 of the most important fundamentals that are “baked in the cake” and that suggest of a Greater Depression.

1. Overvalued Real Estate The real estate market has been driven by a number of innovations in real estate finance. Overvaluation in real estate implies overvaluation in real estate financial instruments; an implosion of real estate prices implies an implosion in those instruments

2.Total U.S. Credit. Credit makes leverage: the more credit in the financial system, the more leveraged it is. Today’s total U.S. credit relative to GDP has surpassed significantly the levels preceding the Great Depression. Back then, the total amount of credit in the financial system almost reached an astonishing 250% of GDP. Using the same metric today, the debt level in the U.S. financial system surpassed 350% in 2008, while the level in 1982 was “only” 130%. As Charles Dumas from Lombard Street Research put it quite aptly, "we've had a 30-year leveraging up of America, ending in an unchecked orgy."

3 Explosion of Derivatives. Derivatives have been likened by Warren Buffet to “financial weapons of mass destruction”. The notional amount of total derivatives, as well as “Value at Risk” (VaR), has skyrocketed in recent years with the potential to destabilize the financial system for decades. To put it more allegorically, derivatives hang like a sword of Damocles over the financial system.

A comparison with the 1920s is difficult to make. mostly Derivatives back then were extensively used, although not widely understood. Given that I am not aware of any statistics of derivatives for the period of the 1920s, a meaningful comparison based on hard data is admittedly impossible. Nevertheless, I would venture to make an intelligent guess that the size of modern-day derivatives is hundreds or even thousands of times larger relative to the size of the economy in comparison to the 1920s. Some of the latest reports indicate that the total notional value of derivatives outstanding surpasses one quadrillion dollars. To put this into perspective, this amounts to almost 100 times the GDP of the U.S. economy.

4.Global Bubbles. It is impossible to make direct comparison with the 1920s, but today the global economy is rife with bubbles. Back then in the 1920s, the U.S. had its stock and real estate bubbles, while the European economies were struggling to rebuild from the devastations of WW1 that ended in 1919. I am personally not aware of any other bubbles during this period, although I welcome reader feedback on this topic.

Today the picture is very different. The U.S. economy had a stock market and real estate bubble that has surpassed its own during the 1920s. Colossal US current account deficits have fuelled extraordinary growth in global monetary reserves. As a result, Europe has real estate bubbles across the board, from the U.K. and Ireland, throughout the Mediterranean (Spain, France, Italy and Greece), to the entire Baltic region (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia) and the Balkans (Romaina and Bulgaria). Even worse, many Asian countries (China, Korea, etc.) also have their own stock and property bubbles, only with the exception of Japan, which is still in the process of recovering from its own during the 1980s. Thus, during the 1920s only the U.S. suffered from gross financial imbalances, while today the imbalances have engulfed the whole world – both developed and developing. It stands to reason that the unwinding of those global imbalances is likely to be more painful today than it was during the Great Depression due to both size and scope.

5.Collapsing Bretton Woods II. The global monetary system was on a quasi-gold standard during the 1920s. Back then dollars and pounds were convertible to gold, while all other currencies were convertible to dollars and pounds. An appropriate way to think about it is that of a precursor to the Bretton Woods from 1945-1971. What is important to understand is that while the system was fiat in nature, gold imposed significant limitations to credit expansion and leveraging

[donx]

Wed are waiting for your contribution

I already gave it to you. Remember the CNN link above? So did you or did you not watch the video?

[midas]

Wed are waiting for your contribution

I already gave it to you. Remember the CNN link above? So did you or did you not watch the video?

No Donx that is not really relevant because in any case we have now wandered too far off the topic. I contributed the information about

Rees Mogg only as part of my discussion with quicksilva as to why I cannot possibly see condominium values in Thailand

or anywhere going any direction but down for a very long time.

I have contributed the web site showing the bizarre relationship in recent times between income multipliers and mortgages

which is unlikely to be reinstated under new banking practices for a very long time.

If you have anything specific to contribute to support an argument that real estate values will hold steady or even

increase then I would be greatly interested in reading your contribution-other than that I will not waste

any more time on your anemic posts

[donx]

Wed are waiting for your contribution

I already gave it to you. Remember the CNN link above? So did you or did you not watch the video?

No Donx that is not really relevant because in any case we have now wandered too far off the topic. I contributed the information about

Rees Mogg only as part of my discussion with quicksilva as to why I cannot possibly see condominium values in Thailand

or anywhere going any direction but down for a very long time.

I have contributed the web site showing the bizarre relationship in recent times between income multipliers and mortgages

which is unlikely to be reinstated under new banking practices for a very long time.

If you have anything specific to contribute to support an argument that real estate values will hold steady or even

increase then I would be greatly interested in reading your contribution-other than that I will not waste

any more time on your anemic posts

In support of an argument that real estate values will hold steady or even increase, just look at one of the recent posts by bingobongo where even he admitted that housing had increased during the last year. It wasn't much of an increase at 0.4 percent, but it was an increase.

Having said that, I don't expect that to continue. Then again, the Thai real estate market is not like the US real estate market as so many have pointed out. I expect prices to remain steady or even decrease. I really am hoping for drastic reduction in prices, but I just don't think that will happen. I think prices of 150,000 baht per sqm for condos in Bangkok is not realistic. I would love to see new build CBD condo prices of around 50,000 baht per sqm. I just don't think it will happen. If it does, then I'd be very interested in purchasing a condo then. What I really expect is for the whole market to come to a standstill. Nobody selling and nobody buying. I think it will all depend upon how much of the real estate is leveraged and how much of it was paid for with cash. I don't know the answer to this question, but I have a sense that most of the condo units in Bangkok's CBD have been bought with cash.

[quiksilva]

quicksilva,

we both know u presented his work in a manner that distorts his work. i know his work very well and what i said was essentially what he says regarding housing. You said his work is lame.

anyone here can research his work and come to the same conclusion - BUT - what it does show is ur true colors and how desperate u are!

extremely pathetic on ur part to try and mislead people in that manner!

sad, sad, sad!!!

ur manner of trying to downplay his work and highlight your industries speak volumes. please remember, i never mentioned his name back yonders WONDERING IF U WOULD as a sort of test to see where u stand. u obviously did not want too many people to know about his work - as u have shown - since it works against ur industries profits. the posts - mine - yours - speak for themselves.

get real - your mantra of trying to rise above the other industry players to try and be MORE than THEM was ur sales speech.

pkrv,

how does one get to the truer nature of the market when there are so many here on tv plying their trade. if i have wrongly insinuated anything towards u - then u have my apologies. and there is nothing wrong with keeping a set of pom poms , and a school uniform can add to the ensemble - for the other party of course!

Shochu..

why don't u show his work like he would have wanted people to see!!

OK here's his website, with the link to the exact same graph. http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm from his book: Irrational Exuberance [Princeton University Press 2000, Broadway Books 2001, 2nd edition, 2005]

I'll give you some credit you are very inventive Shochu! I especially lol'd when I read how you were testing me and think I'm trying to cover up Shiller's explosive work to protect industry's profits!! That's TV GOLD!!! :D :D (I really did laugh out loud, thank you!)

As to my sales pitch? What exactly am I selling? Are you all suddenly going to buy a factory now? hehehe At the risk of repeating myself (again) I dont do resi. Honestly, finding business on TV? You're funny!

Then you complain that I dont offer market data until someone else references it. I have stated before that our research papers available for free, and occasionally people ask me for it and I pass it on, happily. But we don't have any relationship with TV and I am under no obligation to post it here. I could do but why should I?

I will only get shouted down saying... oh he's self serving, or he's promoting his services... etc. ... I'm just not interested in dealing with that BS. If I was I would sign up as my company name but I didn't did I? Yes that information is in my profile but only because people complained about my anonymity, so now everyone knows who I am, and I'm fine with that.

So who are you Shochu, where do you work and for who? Your posts with your snide insinuations and unwarranted attacks certainly speaks volumes for yourself and your true colours, but can you stand by them in cold hard light of day?

@ Midas - when will you realise I am not trying to defend condo prices? heck I would like to buy a cheap one please. I'm just tired of people saying that its the end of the world. When its not. Yes its awful, in resi, I am not denying that, (commercial has only just started to feel the fall out from this) but it will get better, but not yet.

I have 1000's of contacts in the investment industry from seriously wealthy private individuals, families, real estate investment trusts, opportunistic funds and institutional investors, all of which I speak to and tell me that they are simply waiting for the right time. This is not spare change we are talking about. FYI the minimum lot size for these players is at least 10 million US$, often with 10 US$ billion allocated for real estate investment which is still a small % of a much larger war chest.

They will buy too, when the price hits the right level. I suppose that is faith. My faith in human nature, and in an industry I know intimately, I know what they want. Its how I earn a crust.

The same is true for people, we get back up after we get knocked down, we find a way. You of course are welcome to believe that it will be darkness and gloom forever, that's cool whatever floats your boat, but its not how I choose to live.

And that gents will be my final post on the topic. I have made my point, here and elsewhere and I dont intend to keep repeating myself.

Only time will tell who is right.

Edited February 5, 2009 by quiksilva

[midas]

In support of an argument that real estate values will hold steady or even increase, just look at one of the recent posts by bingobongo where even he admitted that housing had increased during the last year. It wasn't much of an increase at 0.4 percent, but it was an increase.

Having said that, I don't expect that to continue. Then again, the Thai real estate market is not like the US real estate market as so many have pointed out. I expect prices to remain steady or even decrease. I really am hoping for drastic reduction in prices, but I just don't think that will happen. I think prices of 150,000 baht per sqm for condos in Bangkok is not realistic. I would love to see new build CBD condo prices of around 50,000 baht per sqm. I just don't think it will happen. If it does, then I'd be very interested in purchasing a condo then. What I really expect is for the whole market to come to a standstill. Nobody selling and nobody buying. I think it will all depend upon how much of the real estate is leveraged and how much of it was paid for with cash. I don't know the answer to this question, but I have a sense that most of the condo units in Bangkok's CBD have been bought with cash.

Donx I agree with that possible scenario. It just depends how long Thailand's economy can keep up its

resilience. That is substantially different from quicksilva telling us the end of this year will show

some interesting opportunities.

Yesterday in the Bangkok Post had this article :-

Collapse in demand the enemy

Bangkok Post

Olarn: GDP could fall 4% without stimulus

By: DARANA CHUDASRI

Published: 4/02/2009 at 12:00 AM

Newspaper section: Business

Heavy dependence on the global economy will cost Thailand dearly this year as demand across a range of industries has all but collapsed, warns former deputy premier Olarn Chaipravat.

" For 2009, every country in the world will post negative growth, save perhaps for China," he said yesterday.

Without a stimulus package, Thailand could post the worst contraction in the world."

Only time will tell but I think we will see far more interesting times ahead in the real estate market

than in 1997

[pkrv]

pkrv,how does

one get to the truer nature of the market when there are so many here on tv

plying their trade. if i have wrongly insinuated anything towards u - then u

have my apologies. and there is nothing wrong with keeping a set of pom poms ,

and a school uniform can add to the ensemble - for the other party of

course!

shochu

- This is cool, you are contributing and have a sense of humour. All fine by me

.

We are in disagreement on your analysis of quicksilva but that too is fine. All

I can say is quicksilva has proved to be a mine of information over the years.

Just as an example he provided an explanation of how the 49% Farang quota worked

but also provided a warning that things can sometimes be creative....You

are correct in that we all need to keep our wits about us especially during this

time. I for one will vouch for quicksilva - essentially everything he says is on

record, and IMO it has been a consistent record. As to my wardrobe please

don't mention the kinky pope's outfit. Though I don't appear to be the only one

with one

Edited February 5, 2009 by pkrv

[shochu]

shiller is well known for postulating factually that housing values really do not continually go up taking into consideration the ups and downs, they maintain a mean average that really says - they are not the product everyone thinks they are. he is especially famous for having highlighted this.

ur graph - on the other hand was clearly a distortion of his work. did u really have to paste it up on an excel sheet - waaaaaaaaaaa!

u can not redeem ur self after this blatant con job at trying to make it look like housing always goes up taking into consderation the ups and downs- so - for ur industry - it is a win win situation. it was just so bad i couldn't believe someone would try. thanks - u really opened my eyes to how desperate sales people can get.

his work also says this is the mother of all housing bubbles. so when r things gonna get better there inside man? if we take ur advice - then second half of this year - makes u feel good thinking about it doesn't it?

i believe i have offered more concrete info regarding housing here in los than u have ever offered - in terms of where the market is and is heading.

i also corrected u when u said there was so much middle east money as they were cash rich at the moment. i told you they were were on the verge of a bust and guess what - many of their projects are on hold and they are in the hole. please tell me why ur industry experts only found this out when they saw it on cnn, or bbc? how does ur office actually do its research. is it a feel good kind of thing where u guys sit around and say - okay , this is what we are gonna say because this is what we need to happen! great research methods. excuse me if i choose to rely on my own research as i don't have much confidence in salesmen.

u say there are many people - wait, wait - 1000's of large buyers inquiring. come on - u r desperate. whenever there is a downturn, people always look around to see and possibly gain some insight into what is happening. many people who have nothing to do r also trying to look busy. r u an amateur or what?

there are clear reports coming out that commercial real estate is not moving and everyone is waiting for bargains which mean prices will be heading lower.

u gain by helping ur industry as this is a confidence game and one area uptick will propel another area uptick.

and please show me where i flip flop in my posts??

[pkrv]

shiller is well known for postulating factually that housing values really do not continually go up taking into consideration the ups and downs, they maintain a mean average that really says - they are not the product everyone thinks they are. he is especially famous for having highlighted this.

ur graph - on the other hand was clearly a distortion of his work. did u really have to paste it up on an excel sheet - waaaaaaaaaaa!

u can not redeem ur self after this blatant con job at trying to make it look like housing always goes up taking into consderation the ups and downs- so - for ur industry - it is a win win situation. it was just so bad i couldn't believe someone would try. thanks - u really opened my eyes to how desperate sales people can get.

his work also says this is the mother of all housing bubbles. so when r things gonna get better there inside man? if we take ur advice - then second half of this year - makes u feel good thinking about it doesn't it?

i believe i have offered more concrete info regarding housing here in los than u have ever offered - in terms of where the market is and is heading.

i also corrected u when u said there was so much middle east money as they were cash rich at the moment. i told you they were were on the verge of a bust and guess what - many of their projects are on hold and they are in the hole. please tell me why ur industry experts only found this out when they saw it on cnn, or bbc? how does ur office actually do its research. is it a feel good kind of thing where u guys sit around and say - okay , this is what we are gonna say because this is what we need to happen! great research methods. excuse me if i choose to rely on my own research as i don't have much confidence in salesmen.

u say there are many people - wait, wait - 1000's of large buyers inquiring. come on - u r desperate. whenever there is a downturn, people always look around to see and possibly gain some insight into what is happening. many people who have nothing to do r also trying to look busy. r u an amateur or what?

there are clear reports coming out that commercial real estate is not moving and everyone is waiting for bargains which mean prices will be heading lower.

u gain by helping ur industry as this is a confidence game and one area uptick will propel another area uptick.

and please show me where i flip flop in my posts??

shochu - As a defensive measure I scanned the references being used. Is it not true that quiksilva posted this link -

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm

which contained this reference

Historical housing market data used in my book, Irrational Exuberance [Princeton University Press 2000, Broadway Books 2001, 2nd edition, 2005], showing home prices since 1890 are available for download [Excel file (xls)] and are updated quarterly.

Which is the graph you are contesting. Are you saying quiksilva has somehow managed to override the net and the owner of the document has not noticed?

[midas]

his work also says this is the mother of all housing bubbles. so when r things gonna get better there inside man? if we take ur advice - then second half of this year - makes u feel good thinking about it doesn't it?

i also corrected u when u said there was so much middle east money as they were cash rich at the moment. i told you they were were on the verge of a bust and guess what - many of their projects are on hold and they are in the hole. please tell me why ur industry experts only found this out when they saw it on cnn, or bbc? how does ur office actually do its research. is it a feel good kind of thing where u guys sit around and say - okay , this is what we are gonna say because this is what we need to happen! great research methods. excuse me if i choose to rely on my own research as i don't have much confidence in salesmen.

u say there are many people - wait, wait - 1000's of large buyers inquiring. come on - u r desperate. whenever there is a downturn, people always look around to see and possibly gain some insight into what is happening. many people who have nothing to do r also trying to look busy. r u an amateur or what?

shochu I didn't get a response from quicksilva regarding my question about the availability of mortgages

but in an article in today's " Independent " in the UK, there was this passage about their problems..........

"But the decision is also bad news for mortgage borrowers. Although the cut will benefit borrowers

with tracker or variable rate mortgages, research by BSA has found that concern over getting a mortgage or

getting a large enough mortgage is a much greater worry than affording mortgage repayments. People are

less likely to save and the flow of funds into the mortgage market will be further disrupted."

Then I thought with your knowledge of th Thai market, could I ask you a question which has been

on my mind for quite some time. This is regarding this constant claim that the Thailand condominium market

is " different " to any other market? I think it deserves greater analysis and I wondered

if you know of any sources that have analysed this?

For example, it is said there is there is much less reliance on bank funded mortgages in Thailand

so if that is the case, where is the money coming from?

The way I see the condominium market- there is the upper end condominiums

of 20 mliion plus and at the other end the 1-3 million baht " shoeboxes ".

I think it's safe to say it would be mainly the young locals that would be buying the shoeboxes

and surely they would rely on mortgages for finance?

For upper end condominiums my interpretation has been there are mainly two types of

buyer

1. Thai investors and owner occupiers -I wonder how many of these pay for the

condominiums in cash and how many rely on finance?

2. Expat buyers -I don't think there are many that come from South America, Middle East

or Africa so that only leaves North America, Europe, parts of Asia and Australia.

Given the acute problems in America now and the unfavorable exchange rate I would imagine

there would be far less American potential buyers? The same goes for UK buyers-

though it's probably not as bad for the rest of Europe.

You don't hear of many other Asians buying condominiums in Bangkok other than perhaps Japanese

who have in the past purchased in the Thonglor area as investment but that country is now also

starting to see very serious economic problems again. As for Australian buyers

their numbers must also the drastically smaller because of the very unfavorable exchange rate

and their mounting economic problems.

So again the question for people like quicksilva is :-

( 1 ) Are there really that many Thai and foreign CASH buyers around given the new global economic landscape

and seeing that rental income may be affected soon with so many Thai's starting to lose their jobs ?

( 2 ) How many potential buyers in Thailand will now find it impossible to raise mortgage finance ?

[quiksilva]

You guys keep seeking answers to questions that I have already answered. If you really want those answers, go back and read my posts and the links that I have provided. I never said the market would recover by the end of this year or even next. Read the entire post again. Not just snippets taken out of context.

If you don't that's fine too because I honestly don't care if you believe what I said. Just don't expect me to repeat myself.

Now Shochu, I used to have a modicum of respect for you but wow... you really should be on TV (and no I dont mean the forums). It might surprise you to learn that I honestly dont think an 'uptick' in confidence on the Thai Visa forum is somehow going to save the market!!!! Are you really so influential?

Also I love how you accuse me of hacking into Shiller's website? You do realise that his graph, DOES show the largest housing bubble in history dont you, or is working with numbers difficult for you? Its ok, I understand. We'll keep this quiet.

In fact Shiller has posted that link at a few websites, but don't tell me, I have hacked into all of those others sites as well? You know hacking illegal right, so I think as a good moral citizen you had better call the authorities and whilst you are at it, take your findings public. PLEASE!!!!

Heheh hacker, I like the sound of that, what's next? Can I be an space cadet like you?

edit

Midas, I realised I didn't answer your question regarding availability of mortgages. As has been discussed elsewhere the majority of property transactions in Thailand are not leveraged, that includes both local and foreign buyers. Mortgages however do exist and are still available for Thai, and even non-Thais via HSBC.

Discounts will be from developers and distressed mortgagees. In other words those who have to sell, and by the end of this year I expect the greatest discounts to become available (i.e. interesting opportunities).

Edited February 6, 2009 by quiksilva

[midas]

You guys keep seeking answers to questions that I have already answered. If you really want those answers, go back and read my posts and the links that I have provided. I never said the market would recover by the end of this year or even next. Read the entire post again. Not just snippets taken out of context.

Midas, I realised I didn't answer your question regarding availability of mortgages. As has been discussed elsewhere the majority of property transactions in Thailand are not leveraged, that includes both local and foreign buyers. Mortgages however do exist and are still available for Thai, and even non-Thais via HSBC.

Discounts will be from developers and distressed mortgagees. In other words those who have to sell, and by the end of this year I expect the greatest discounts to become available (i.e. interesting opportunities).

Hold on quicksilva in Post #48 you said

However, many will prefer to rent in these difficult times. This is good for landlords. As demand for lets

increase, rents will eventually climb. So yields will improve too, eventually to point where they offer a much

more attractive destination for capital than simply putting it in highly risky stocks and 'risky' banks...

Late 2009 early 2010 could be an interesting time to get in the market...

If you didn't believe " the market would recover by the end of this year or even next " then what do you

mean exactly when you say " Late 2009 early 2010 could be an interesting time to get in the market." ?

Interesting in what way ?

You would have to admit that it would be very easy to interpret your final sentence as an insinuation that

the Thai market would be at or near the bottom " Late 2009 early 2010 " - or that's how I interpreted your comments at least.

As to your comments about " the majority of property transactions in Thailand are not leveraged "-this is what

I think should be considered and analysed in greater depth now in view of what has happened in other countries

and what is happening in Thailand. I hope you're not suggesting that with a deterioration in the Thai economic

outlook this situation will remained unchanged ? I am curious to know more about these cash buyers

and their motives ? As you are an expert in this industry and pkrv seems to think you are the best thing

since sliced bread , I would be interested in your comments about

the following :-

1. How many would be buyers today are Thai investors and how many only buy " off the plan " with the hope of selling on at a

profit before completion of the development? I wonder how many people in this category will now be more risk averse?

I seem to know a hel_l of a lot of Thai's who did this when things were " good " but wouldn't think of doing

it now

2. Isn't it true that Thai condominium buyers ( speculators ) are most and enthusiastic when

the stockmarket in Thailand is also up and looking healthy ? With SET looking like it is going to be

in the doldrums for the foreseeable future, is this also likely to cancel out quite a few potential condominium buyers ?

3. With regards to foreign buyers are you ready to admit there would have to be far less

potential expat buyers as at today than compared to say only six to twelve months ago?

You keep accusing me of having an apocalyptic view of things whereas as I am only raising and exploring

questions relevant to what's happening today. What happens if more and more jobs are lost every day

around the world, if more and more companies go broke

they cannot meet their pension obligations ? For that matter what about entire countries that are now effectively

" broke " ( just watch what will happen now in Spain ) -maybe they will not be able to meet their state pension payment obligations .

All these things could contribute to far less farangs being financially able to buy condominiums

in Thailand like they used to before ?

Edited February 6, 2009 by midas

[Gary A]

The crazy cost per meter of new construction WILL drop considerably. I base that on the price of oil being way down followed by the costs of steel and cement. Projects planned during high oil prices will NOT sell when equal units are priced with much cheaper materials. Simple logic should tell anyone that.

[quiksilva]

Just because it hits the bottom at that point it doesn't mean a recovery starts straight away! I thought that was obvious, apologies for the omission.

I don't expect to change my outlook on the number of leveraged buyers in Thailand to change this year, because I don't expect to see many transactions.

1. Every property market has speculators. Thailand is certainly not immune. I'm afraid nobody has truly accurate details on how many people buy to flip or buy to rent, as opposed to owner occupiers. We can get an indication though via property management but that will only come to light usually 6-12 months after completion. Yes, speculators will be one of those groups, pressured to sell (if its void, and especially if financed)

2. True. Again, I don't expect to see many buyers this year, nor indeed for a while. Not even during the times when I indicated might be most interesting to get in. Very few people were buying condo's in the years of 1998 - 2000 either, yet one could have picked up beachside condos in Hua Hin for 30,000 per square meter, and less. Very few did though, as interesting as those prices were, everyone was too scared to take the plunge, and understandably so, but still interesting none the less...

3. Agreed, for the time being that's true. I also believe that markets will eventually recover, history has taught us that.

If you can believe that I didn't hack into Shiller's website and alter his research take a look at his graphs. Note that I suggested to right click the Housing price index and add a linear trend line.

Don't take my word for it. Try it, take a look at the direction of home prices since records began.

Of course, the recent bubble skews it. So now select the tab for data and highlight all rows for data all figures after say 2001. A point where prices were still reasonable (two years before Shiller and the IMF said housing was overvalued). What is the overall direction of the trend?

Now can you see my point? Property is a long term play. Think decades. Over the building's life cycle they improve in value. Of course if you brought recently during these times you will have much longer to wait until values recover, but the market will catch up.Yes please bear in mind that this chart is US only, but really the same holds true for other markets.

The thing about Thailand is because they are so under leveraged, there is relatively little motivation for them to sell at a discount, so most tend to wait. As an agent its a very frustrating thing, but its true. You know, I want to see values drop. Why? Because then we get volume, and that's where we make money. No transactions = no

commissions.

Am I desperate as Shochu thinks? No, we still have volume. Am I concerned, of course. I'd be stupid not to be. Thankfully I have been through this before so I have a fair chance of survival. The same will not be true for everyone I'm afraid.

Edited February 6, 2009 by quiksilva

[shochu]

no data on speculators. perhaps u need to spend more time doing research. if u got out a bit more and asked around u would get some more info.

the place i just signed on told me there were about 20% specs. data out now says 10-15%. during the 97 crisis, correct me if i am wrong, but there were about double this number.

quiksilva,

go back in the post and see why i am replying in this manner to u. i treat people the way they deserve to be treated. u took a swipe at me in the hopes of proving me wrong with a false assertion - so please show me where i flip flopped. AND IT WAS EXTREMELY OBVIOUS WHAT YOUR INTENT WAS WITH THAT GRAPH! information is easily taken out out of context to mislead. perhpas u can show us the graph that is more indicative of his findings that he is famous for along with his partner - yes - that being the key - if u r not trying to mislead here!

midas,

the market here is evolving into a more mature market - meaning it is moving away from what most people know of this market. this is a normal process of any developing market as there are generally common paths most economies follow in order to GROW - yes - that being the key word here. there is not too much variance from this. growth requires specific criteria and if u study any maturing market it should give u the info u want. i know there are some minor variances - but generally in order for an economy to fully develop, they rely on the input of similar conditions - so this is not something esoteric and difficult to ascertain.

ur assertion of the lower priced condos i believe are correct. generally young professionals with mortgages, as well as parental support. i focus more on the local market - meaning this segment, so i will refrain from commenting on the other end.

i know from what i see, this market , from some developers is still moving well. i totally disagree when some posters say, prices never come down and it is mostly cash transactions.

BUT - we are in uncharted territory - so this time could set a precedence to look back on.

as a rule, i only participate in the market at the local level and steer clear of those directed at outsiders.

[shochu]

midas,

there are more rejections of mortgages happening now to thais from what i hear - not surprising

quicksilva,

when i said a distortion, it was meant as in not giving a clear picture of his work since it is out of context - as i stated above