Financial Crisis

[midas]

The New York Post reporting on who called who, and at what time, without any idea about the content of the discussions, other than he "left word" means absolutely nothing, he could have been speaking in Klingon and discussing zombie survival plans...

quiksilva since the Merrill Lynch and Bank of America debacle

i dont understand why anyone would want to look for reasons to give any benefit of the doubt regarding

shenanigans that went on ( and still continue ) between Goldman Sachs and Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson

Maybe you will belive The New York Post more if Paulson ends up behind bars ?

Yes I would, because to put someone behind bars you need to compile evidence beyond reasonable doubt, which this is not.

We can all speculate about what was discussed, but without records we can never KNOW, and that's the crucial difference.

Im not looking for reasons to give anyone the benefit of the doubt, I think those responsible for this mess need to be made accountable, but to do that real proof is needed, and whilst this article might sell a few newspapers, the content doesn't really amount to all that much.

PS Midas, I'm honestly curious, how do you feel today about your prediction six months or so ago of "no recovery for 20 years"?

Well I'm hopeful the likes of Judge Rakof and Neil M. Barofsky will get to the bottom of it

and we will see Justice carried out against some of these so called public servants.

As to my prediction about 20 years quicksilva -yes that is how long now

Japan has been fighting deflation and there is nothing to convince

me today that things will be any different in USA and parts of Europe.

In fact lets hope the problem is only restricted to economics

I share the view of Marc Faber ( although he is actually apocalyptic )

-yes we are seeing a temporary " bounce "

-as one would expect after so many stimulus packages but IMO

I can't see how there can ever be a " recovery "

until the debts have been truly eliminated ?

And what about you-what is your perspective?

[midas]

The New York Post reporting on who called who, and at what time, without any idea about the content of the discussions, other than he "left word" means absolutely nothing, he could have been speaking in Klingon and discussing zombie survival plans...

These guys all share the same Goldman Sachs DNA and so it would be safe to assume what they were talking about

Rumour has it is to be reviewed by the Justice Department,

as to whether or not self-dealing in the position as Sec. of the US Treasury constitutes treason.

[12DrinkMore]

As to my prediction about 20 years quicksilva -yes that is how long now

Japan has been fighting deflation and there is nothing to convince

me today that things will be any different in USA and parts of Europe.

In fact lets hope the problem is only restricted to economics

I share the view of Marc Faber ( although he is actually apocalyptic )

-yes we are seeing a temporary " bounce "

-as one would expect after so many stimulus packages but IMO

I can't see how there can ever be a " recovery "

until the debts have been truly eliminated ?

I'm with you here.

The situation in Japan has recently deteriorated as the Yen has appreciated massively against other currencies. This has resulted in losses in profitability of the exporters and price deflation due to price reduction on imports.

I am still not convinced that deflation is the bogey man it is made out to be, especially when it is correcting the boom in asset classes such as real estate. I also have doubts about how the cpi/rpi figures are calculated and manipulated by governments. One reason that governments like a steady rate of inflation is because is manifests itself as a stealth tax on savers. Deflation has the opposite effect and increases the value of savings, and this increase in value cannot be taxed.

But we are very much on the contrarian side, as a major leading indicator of a recovery is considered to be increased lending. However the Brits are seeing sense and

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...in-1795276.html

are paying down debt. Although averaged over the number of households in the UK it is not very much on an individual basis, every little bit helps. But the "spend the future today" attitude is hard ingrained

Commenting on the latest news, David Kern, the chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: "It is important for the Bank of England to address the dangerous weakness in bank lending, and the Government must take steps to curb falls in employment. The main priority is to ensure that businesses are able to return the economy to sustainable growth as early as possible."

Pity there was nobody a few years ago with the observation, "It is important for the Bank of England to address the dangerous strength in bank lending". They were all too busy living in the fantasy land of forever rising property prices.

But for a lot of people it now looks as though instead of an early retirement through technology increased productivity it is more likely to turn into a lifetime on the treadmill of debt, sold into debt slavery by their own governments and blinded through greed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/persona...n-Bakewell.html

Older people will have to work longer – and the default retirement age must be scrapped – says Dame Joan Bakewell, the broadcaster and Government’s voice for older people

Maybe it's time to invest in the manufacturers of Zimmerman Frames and compatible vehicles?

[Abrak]

What has caused the current financial turmoil?

With the current system of fiat (paper) currencies, money can only be created by banks and central banks loaning out money i.e. by debt. The total amount of debt simply equals the total amount of money. Increasing debt (= monetary inflation) is therefore central for economic growth with the current system.

12drinkmore, first consider the growth model. Namely to tax savings to encourage debt and spending. Then consider the resulting problem high debt/nominal GDP. So while deflation and growth is possible - as in the 19th century, it cannot be achieved when you have a high debt problem.

I am still not convinced that deflation is the bogey man it is made out to be, especially when it is correcting the boom in asset classes such as real estate. I also have doubts about how the cpi/rpi figures are calculated and manipulated by governments. One reason that governments like a steady rate of inflation is because is manifests itself as a stealth tax on savers. Deflation has the opposite effect and increases the value of savings, and this increase in value cannot be taxed.

First, through by not taxing savings you are encouraging people to stop spending - so reducing GDP and increasing the central problem of high debt to GDP (both P and Q are reduced). Second the underlying issue with this debt is that it has been spent so it is not a reallocation of money between asset classes. The fall in prices simply bankrupts the banking system at the expense of the government, so although the saver is no longer taxed on his savings he receives increased taxes on his income. Furthermore, the resulting drop in spending and GDP means he may not have the income he has before because he has been laid off (so increasing government spending and taxes).

More simply put increased amount of debt has already been spent to increase - GDP - it has gone (there has been no reallocation). The guy earning US$50,000 a year has been spending US$100,000 and just borrowed more. So you are right to say if we inflate things and lend him more he can still spend US$100,000 year but you are only putting out the fire with gasoline but deflating which means even the the prudent spend less is not an answer.

One way or another the prudent saver in the past will pay for the imprudent borrower because he has already spent the money.

Obviously the Fabers of this world see this happening through the inflation of nominal GDP to debt.

'So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.'

[flying]

FDIC Report

http://www.fdic.gov/news/board/Sept29no1.pdf

Seems the fund goes negative today

Creative accounting?

All in all rather confusing.

Fund balances & reserve ratio today goes negative.

Yet cash & marketable securities remain positive?

I guess estimated losses have exceeded actual balances & realistically we are just getting started

How long will we kick the can further down the street?

It is after all a dead end isn't it?

Edited September 30, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

It is after all a dead end isn't it?

the end is nigh!

[flying]

It is after all a dead end isn't it?

the end is nigh!

Sorry...I know many do not use the term dead end. Instead many say cul de sac

dead-end (ddnd)adj.1. Having no exit.2. Permitting no opportunity for advancement: a dead-end job.

2.cul de sac - a street with only one way in or out

[12DrinkMore]

12drinkmore, first consider the growth model. Namely to tax savings to encourage debt and spending. Then consider the resulting problem high debt/nominal GDP. So while deflation and growth is possible - as in the 19th century, it cannot be achieved when you have a high debt problem.

This growth model has always been flawed, debt should not be used as the main means of funding consumerism. It may give the initial "hit" of euphoria as the shiny new lcd tv sits there, but in six months this new asset is worth just 35% of what was paid, leaving the consumer to pay of the remaining debt and interest on it. Debt should only be taken out if it is to be invested in a wealth producing venture, such as a factory, which will provide jobs. If people cannot afford to buy now, then they should save and buy with cash. This is what my parents did. It works out far cheaper as well.

Also the notion that a house is a source of income to be used to supplement wages is severely flawed.

But we have already discussed this, the growth in gdp was simply a growth in credit and not real production and wealth. The economists should revisit the metrics used to judge economies. But they won't, basic and sound accounting principle have been gradually chucked out the window, as they became "too restrictive".

Governments have now intervened so much and in so many aspects of the economy, that we now have a huge tangled web of interdependencies and statistics. However there are surely a few basic principles, and a major one is that saving for the future on the personal level is very beneficial and essential. Most people can look forward to 15-20 years of retirement.

A simple calculation is if you work for 45 years and then have to live on saving for a further 15 years, roughly 30% of your lifetime earnings have to be saved in some form, whether in personal or company pension schemes, or savings and investments. If you do not, then you are basically expecting the future tax payer to bail you out. This is a figure far higher than what people are saving, but I think it is not far out, as there has been no asset class that has consistently provided better net returns than inflation over the long term. Except maybe the negative asset class of debt.

But the battle of David and Goliath is taking place. The Davids have begun to pay down debt and not take out credit but the Goliath of government is trying to force more debt down their throats and get them to buy more stuff. From the recent figures showing that consumer debt is reducing, I am optimistic that the lesson has, for the time being, been learnt. Debt deflation here we come. And if, instead of trying to fight it, the governments encouraged it, we would have a short and sharp nasty shock. But better an end to the horror than a horror without an end.

Although the buttons of ZIRP, QE and currency devaluation have been pushed, all geared in some way to get a decent bit of inflation surging to clear out the debts, this is only going to work if

1. house prices rise again to remove the negative equity.

2. wages rise to to enable debt to be paid off without pain.

Now 1 is not going to happen without 2, and will be very delayed, as there is a lot of spare housing stock and it will be a buyers market for a while.

And 2 is not going to happen until the unemployables have reentered employment, which is a long way off, as there is a lot of slack in the production plants.

So where is the inflation going to come from? All I can see is more debt deflation, which presumably will prolong the agony for a couple more years. We are not out of the jungle by a long way.

But lets be optimistic, at least 80% of the workforce still has a job. Unfortunately this includes Bernanke, Brown, Darling, King and many millions of useless public disservice employees, who sit twiddling their thumbs working out how to increase the inefficiency so that they can develop bigger departments and get a salary rise.

[Naam]

It is after all a dead end isn't it?

the end is nigh!

Sorry...I know many do not use the term dead end. Instead many say cul de sac

dead-end (ddnd)adj.1. Having no exit.2. Permitting no opportunity for advancement: a dead-end job.

2.cul de sac - a street with only one way in or out

Flying, why do i have that strange feeling that i knew the meaning of "dead end" before you were born?

[quiksilva]

As to my prediction about 20 years quicksilva -yes that is how long now

Japan has been fighting deflation and there is nothing to convince

me today that things will be any different in USA and parts of Europe.

In fact lets hope the problem is only restricted to economics

I share the view of Marc Faber ( although he is actually apocalyptic )

-yes we are seeing a temporary " bounce "

-as one would expect after so many stimulus packages but IMO

I can't see how there can ever be a " recovery "

until the debts have been truly eliminated ?

And what about you-what is your perspective?

I had a factory sale die, recently, (sucks hard). The seller had a 10000 sqm facility and was using 25% of it, so in Q2 they decided they had to sell, they could not foresee how they would be able to fully utilise the asset, I had a buyer for the property lined up within 4 weeks from instruction at a price which was not heavily discounted. LOI signed DD was underway and then I got a call that the seller's business had turned around to the point that they needed their existing facility and had to withdraw from the market. Sucked for me I can tell you, big fees were due on that but it is I think a sign of the times.

But don't worry my business is still doing fine, we are on target for the YTD, and the pipeline is looking good. In fact, I am encouraged by this recent upturn, and have certainly seen activity pick up in my line of work. For example, despite that one which died, factories are still changing hands (sales and rentals), and we are seeing manufacturers (from electronics, automotive (yes you read that right), to healthcare) looking to expand, (this is not SME stuff either), and new operators are starting up or moving here.

Recently, I have received calls from major investment houses who right now are compiling funds to buy distressed assets and loans, and met with large respectable banks who are looking for high yielding finance projects. An interesting meeting with a friend at a business function the other night, who indicated that a meeting with the head of a major American bank here are busy lending again, (commercial loans). Movers (you know the guys who relocate expats in and out, have also reported more expats on their way in to Thailand.

There are certainly sectors which are still not doing very well at all, tourism is still suffering and high end residential still has a way to go, but it might surprise you to hear that sales have been picking up there too.

To keep my post here as objective as possible, we have of course seen factories closed, and have seen numerous new properties for sale at discounts come to us over this recent period. This dip has hurt people badly, but most seem to be "surviving". In fact if you ask people in business these days "how you are doing?" and that's a word you'll hear very often. "surviving"

Whether this recent activity and confidence is founded on shaky ground I cant honestly tell you, but it is indirectly a reaction to the stimulus programs that have and are being implemented around the world. The question is whether the stimulus measures that are in place will be sufficient to kick start the economies to the point that they can gather sufficient momentum to propel themselves forward. I dont know if thats possible, but from my perspective its looking good, and as you know I'm an optimistic sort of chap anyway, but its not entirely baseless optimism (I think).

Now I don't think we'll 'recover' to the levels that we saw in 2006-2008 anytime soon and that could indeed take a very long time, and thats probably for the better. I would like to see slower, sustainable, consistent growth, and if we saw the start of that, then that to me would be a recovery, of sorts.

Do you need to see the elimination of national debts to achieve that? It is a noble, yet somewhat idealistic goal and definitely one worth shooting for, but is zero debt strictly necessary to achieve economic growth of the type I'd like to see?

I don't think so, but I know that balanced books is usually preferable (unless you can make the debt work for you!)

Edited October 1, 2009 by quiksilva

[Abrak]

I had a factory sale die, recently, (sucks hard). The seller had a 10000 sqm facility and was using 25% of it, so in Q2 they decided they had to sell, they could not foresee how they would be able to fully utilise the asset, I had a buyer for the property lined up within 4 weeks from instruction at a price which was not heavily discounted. LOI signed DD was underway and then I got a call that the seller's business had turned around to the point that they needed their existing facility and had to withdraw from the market. Sucked for me I can tell you, big fees were due on that but it is I think a sign of the times.

But don't worry my business is still doing fine, we are on target for the YTD, and the pipeline is looking good. In fact, I am encouraged by this recent upturn, and have certainly seen activity pick up in my line of work. For example, despite that one which died, factories are still changing hands (sales and rentals), and we are seeing manufacturers (from electronics, automotive (yes you read that right), to healthcare) looking to expand, (this is not SME stuff either), and new operators are starting up or moving here.

Recently, I have received calls from major investment houses who right now are compiling funds to buy distressed assets and loans, and met with large respectable banks who are looking for high yielding finance projects. An interesting meeting with a friend at a business function the other night, who indicated that a meeting with the head of a major American bank here are busy lending again, (commercial loans). Movers (you know the guys who relocate expats in and out, have also reported more expats on their way in to Thailand.

There are certainly sectors which are still not doing very well at all, tourism is still suffering and high end residential still has a way to go, but it might surprise you to hear that sales have been picking up there too.

To keep my post here as objective as possible, we have of course seen factories closed, and have seen numerous new properties for sale at discounts come to us over this recent period. This dip has hurt people badly, but most seem to be "surviving". In fact if you ask people in business these days "how you are doing?" and that's a word you'll hear very often. "surviving"

Whether this recent activity and confidence is founded on shaky ground I cant honestly tell you, but it is indirectly a reaction to the stimulus programs that have and are being implemented around the world. The question is whether the stimulus measures that are in place will be sufficient to kick start the economies to the point that they can gather sufficient momentum to propel themselves forward. I dont know if thats possible, but from my perspective its looking good, and as you know I'm an optimistic sort of chap anyway, but its not entirely baseless optimism (I think).

Now I don't think we'll 'recover' to the levels that we saw in 2006-2008 anytime soon and that could indeed take a very long time, and thats probably for the better. I would like to see slower, sustainable, consistent growth, and if we saw the start of that, then that to me would be a recovery, of sorts.

Do you need to see the elimination of national debts to achieve that? It is a noble, yet somewhat idealistic goal and definitely one worth shooting for, but is zero debt strictly necessary to achieve economic growth of the type I'd like to see?

I don't think so, but I know that balanced books is usually preferable (unless you can make the debt work for you!)

Yeah I definitely think this sums up Thailand.

The distressed debt deals that you didnt want to do 6 months ago are no longer there because the seller is no longer willing to sell. Whether things will be different in a few more years who knows?

To some extent Thailand is a bit of an exception, rather than coming off an asset boom (the stock market is half its levels of 15 years ago, property prices in dollar terms are much unchanged) it has the benefit of already going through its debt fueled crisis bust and has now emerged with 'slower, sustainable growth'. That doesnt mean no debt it simply means no unsustainable increases in debt.

That is why we havent seen the banks go tits up etc.. They did that before.

If there is anything to learn from this, it really isnt good news. The stock market is still half of where it was 15 years ago. The ultimate result of debt fueled growth is slower sustainable growth. It is a long hard slog - it cannot be instantly solved by creative destruction or reflating the bubble.

In some respects though (for all its politics and inefficiencies) Thailand was lucky in that it could devalue its currency and recover through NX - falling demand for imports and rising export demand. The US has been fueling growth through its deficit not just for itself but for those it has been importing from - so essentially it is difficult to make the same trick work when aggregated on a large scale.

You know however optimistic you are - and I know there arent many in this thread - you should look at Japan and consider what a mess it is in despite its inherently strong fundamentals - 20 years on. It might have done everything wrong but it at least started from a strong base. Somehow I think that the US has and will be a lot smarter than Japan but it is starting from much weaker fundamentals.

But there is no use getting overly pessimistic. Take a look at this chart of UK national debt to GDP.

[flying]

Flying, why do i have that strange feeling that i knew the meaning of "dead end" before you were born?

Time difference?

Sorry sometimes your replies give me the wrong impression & that could be due to the time difference of when you post & I reply

I usually respond in the early am here & may not be fully awake to your klingon wit

Edited October 1, 2009 by flying

[teletiger]

VAT comes to the USA. The scourge of every single- trader in the UK and Euroland.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/national-sales-tax-coming

Frankly, with the different State sales taxes in the US, is it even feasible? It might cost more to police and collect, than is collected.

The Tobin tax. Now there's something that could work. 1% on all Stock, bond, et al sales. Enforced Globally! 'And you bastards can afford it, right?....Er...Sorry.

Suffice to say....everyones taxes are going up. The Hamptons are pissed though, gotta pay more to the accountants to hide stuff.

Regards.

[Abrak]

VAT comes to the USA. The scourge of every single- trader in the UK and Euroland.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/national-sales-tax-coming

Frankly, with the different State sales taxes in the US, is it even feasible? It might cost more to police and collect, than is collected.

The Tobin tax. Now there's something that could work. 1% on all Stock, bond, et al sales. Enforced Globally! 'And you bastards can afford it, right?....Er...Sorry.

Suffice to say....everyones taxes are going up. The Hamptons are pissed though, gotta pay more to the accountants to hide stuff.

Regards.

You know Teletiger.... it aint going to happen. First of all it is far more likely that countries will 'disagree' about taxes than 'agree'.

In other words while the US is preaching free trade it will feel fine about imposing taxes on Chinese steel imports that they see a

is unfair.

Secondly this option has already been tried. I once suggested on this thread that problems could be solved by

transfering wealth from the 'haves' to the 'have nots' to which someone far far wiser than me pointed out that,

that was current policy - in that the bottom 50% of income earners only contribute 3 % of total taxes so that increased taxes on

the top 50% will be non-productive.

So yes, taxes have to go up, the government will increasing socialize the economy, and productive assets will continue to export

themselves elsewhere.

Edited October 1, 2009 by Abrak

[Naam]

IMF says global economic recovery has begun

ISTANBUL (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Thursday declared that a global economic recovery has begun led by Asia, also cautioning that the strength of the rebound depended on a rebalancing of global growth.

After a year of being downbeat about prospects for the world economy, the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook revised up its growth forecasts for this year and next.

"The recovery has started. Financial markets are healing and in most countries growth will be positive for the rest of the year as well as in 2010," the IMF's chief economist Olivier Blanchard told a news conference here before the start of World Bank and IMF meetings. Monsieur Blanchard however admitted that he did not take the warnings and facts into consideration which "Thaivisa apocalyptic riders economic experts" post daily in the thread "Financial Crisis / Apocalypse Now".

The Fund now expects world output to contract by 1.1 percent in 2009 before growing by 3.1 percent in 2010. This is more upbeat than its last outlook in July when the Fund projected the world economy would shrink 1.4 percent in 2009, before expanding 2.5 percent in 2010.

Blanchard said at his news conference that the strength of the world economy will depend on rebalancing global growth, an issue that was the focus of a summit of leaders from the Group of 20 in Pittsburgh last week.

"If you think about global rebalancing you realize it is going to have to come from a number of measures and from a number of adjustments. It is very hard to see how this could happen at the current exchange rates," he said.

"In general, it is very hard to see how global rebalancing does not come with an appreciation of Asian currencies of various degrees," he added, without mentioning China's currency, the yuan, which the IMF has said is substantially undervalued.

Rebalancing the world economy will require debt-laden countries including the United States to save more and buy less, and big exporters like China to increase domestic spending. Such a process would almost certainly require an even weaker U.S. dollar and for the Chinese renminbi to rise.

In an interview with Reuters Television, Blanchard also said that rebalancing global foreign exchange rates was not just about adjusting the level of the Chinese yuan.

"I've focused on China because it is an obvious component of the solution, but this is not a Chinese problem, it's a world problem," he added, declining to give specific levels for either the yuan or other currencies.

The IMF report said the world economy will take a while before it returns to pre-crisis levels, with growth expected to average a little more than 4 percent a year after 2010.

EMERGING COUNTRIES LEAD

Emerging and developing countries are clearly front runners in the recovery, expanding by 1.5 percent this year before rebounding 5 percent next year led by China and India, the IMF said, also noting signs of stabilization in Latin America.

The IMF revised up China's growth forecast for next year to 9 percent from a July estimate of 8.5 percent. In Japan the economy is expected to recover by 1.7 percent next year, buoyed by fiscal and monetary stimulus measures.

The IMF urged policymakers not to disrupt the recovery by relaxing efforts to strengthen the financial sector and by prematurely withdrawing expansionary economic policies.

In major economies, authorities can still afford to maintain accommodative conditions for a while because inflation is likely to remain subdued, the IMF said.

The challenge going forward is to map a middle course between unwinding stimulus measures too early and leaving them there too long, which could damage government balance sheets.

In emerging markets, raising interest rates could happen sooner than in advanced economies, the IMF said, also warning that in some countries warding off risks of new asset price bubbles may require greater exchange rate flexibility.

Meanwhile, a Turkish student, who is also the editor of a small left-wing newspaper Birgun, threw a shoe which landed at IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn's feet on Thursday as he made a speech to students in Istanbul.

The incident echoed that of an Iraqi journalist who last December hurled his shoes, a grave insult in the Muslim world, at then U.S. President George W. Bush.

[midas]

You know however optimistic you are - and I know there arent many in this thread - you should look at Japan and consider what a mess it is in despite its inherently strong fundamentals - 20 years on. It might have done everything wrong but it at least started from a strong base. Somehow I think that the US has and will be a lot smarter than Japan but it is starting from much weaker fundamentals.

But there is no use getting overly pessimistic. Take a look at this chart of UK national debt to GDP.

Abrak I never consider what is going on in terms of being optimistic or pessimistic -it's being able to deal with being realistic

instead of this mentality of ' extend and pretend '.

And why and how do you think the US will be " a lot smarter " - and who do you think will be smarter -do you mean the public

servants like Bernanke or Geithner ? Do you mean they will be smarter at telling lies or hiding their acute deception

and corruption better than anyone else ?

Edited October 2, 2009 by midas

[midas]

IMF says global economic recovery has begun

ISTANBUL (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Thursday declared that a global economic recovery has begun led by Asia, also cautioning that the strength of the rebound depended on a rebalancing of global growth.

After a year of being downbeat about prospects for the world economy, the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook revised up its growth forecasts for this year and next.

"The recovery has started. Financial markets are healing and in most countries growth will be positive for the rest of the year as well as in 2010," the IMF's chief economist Olivier Blanchard told a news conference here before the start of World Bank and IMF meetings. Monsieur Blanchard however admitted that he did not take the warnings and facts into consideration which "Thaivisa apocalyptic riders economic experts" post daily in the thread "Financial Crisis / Apocalypse Now".

yada yada yackety yack ..............show me the money................... oh and the jobs

[midas]

You know however optimistic you are

are the banks being "optimistic" when you keep seeing bank failure after bank failure - nearly 100 of them now - where balance sheets are universally overvaluing claimed "assets" .vs. their disposition value ?

At some point you have to call this what it is: a pattern of intentional conduct designed to deceive regulators and the public as to the condition of these institutions.

You could say "Scam" "Ripoff" "Charade" "Myth"- or perhaps we should use the word that would be apply if you tried to do this in any other line of work - FELONY

Edited October 2, 2009 by midas

[lannarebirth]

You know however optimistic you are

are the banks being "optimistic" when you keep seeing bank failure after bank failure - nearly 100 of them now - where balance sheets are universally overvaluing claimed "assets" .vs. their disposition value ?

At some point you have to call this what it is: a pattern of intentional conduct designed to deceive regulators and the public as to the condition of these institutions.

You could say "Scam" "Ripoff" "Charade" "Myth"- or perhaps we should use the word that would be apply if you tried to do this in any other line of work - FELONY

The financial markets are not where one should be looking for signs of righteousness. It's always been a quasi criminal enterprise. Successful punters aim to get on the side that's winning.

[midas]

You know however optimistic you are

are the banks being "optimistic" when you keep seeing bank failure after bank failure - nearly 100 of them now - where balance sheets are universally overvaluing claimed "assets" .vs. their disposition value ?

At some point you have to call this what it is: a pattern of intentional conduct designed to deceive regulators and the public as to the condition of these institutions.

You could say "Scam" "Ripoff" "Charade" "Myth"- or perhaps we should use the word that would be apply if you tried to do this in any other line of work - FELONY

The financial markets are not where one should be looking for signs of righteousness. It's always been a quasi criminal enterprise. Successful punters aim to get on the side that's winning.

I completley disagree with you because in my career i experienced a time when people were not sewer rats

when they conducted business and you could actually trust what people told you.

And if society thinks this is now acceptable then i dont see how anyone will ever be able to rely on the integrity of the valuation

of any asset ever again

[lannarebirth]

You know however optimistic you are

are the banks being "optimistic" when you keep seeing bank failure after bank failure - nearly 100 of them now - where balance sheets are universally overvaluing claimed "assets" .vs. their disposition value ?

At some point you have to call this what it is: a pattern of intentional conduct designed to deceive regulators and the public as to the condition of these institutions.

You could say "Scam" "Ripoff" "Charade" "Myth"- or perhaps we should use the word that would be apply if you tried to do this in any other line of work - FELONY

The financial markets are not where one should be looking for signs of righteousness. It's always been a quasi criminal enterprise. Successful punters aim to get on the side that's winning.

I completley disagree with you because in my career i experienced a time when people were not sewer rats

when they conducted business and you could actually trust what people told you.

There being honor amongst thieves? Something like that?

And if society thinks this is now acceptable then i dont see how anyone will ever be able to rely on the integrity of the valuation

of any asset ever again

There's an expression "the market is always right" Well, that's bullshit, pure and simple. Instead it should be "the market is almost never right but it always wins".

Edited October 2, 2009 by lannarebirth

[midas]

I completley disagree with you because in my career i experienced a time when people were not sewer rats

when they conducted business and you could actually trust what people told you.

There being honor amongst thieves? Something like that?

And if society thinks this is now acceptable then i dont see how anyone will ever be able to rely on the integrity of the valuation

of any asset ever again

There's an expression "the market is always right" Well, that's bullshit, pure and simple. Instead it should be "the market is almost never right but it always wins".

You keep talking about " markets " which are no different now to any gambling enterprise.

My post was about potential fraudulent activity in banking.

Or are you suggesting we shouldn't really expect any meaningful standards to be adhered to any longer

in any realm of buisness activity ............god help us all

[lannarebirth]

I completley disagree with you because in my career i experienced a time when people were not sewer rats

when they conducted business and you could actually trust what people told you.

There being honor amongst thieves? Something like that?

And if society thinks this is now acceptable then i dont see how anyone will ever be able to rely on the integrity of the valuation

of any asset ever again

There's an expression "the market is always right" Well, that's bullshit, pure and simple. Instead it should be "the market is almost never right but it always wins".

You keep talking about " markets " which are no different now to any gambling enterprise.

My post was about potential fraudulent activity in banking.

Or are you suggesting we shouldn't really expect any meaningful standards to be adhered to any longer

in any realm of buisness activity ............god help us all

Well, both are about share price. That's dealt with in the market. It's a public, private, punter partnership. No one's interested in these companies going out of business. It's harder to make money off that.

They'll reign in the CDS's eventually, but the way Wall Street operates won't change significantly. They may be taxed more however, and for them that's a financial crisis.

[flying]

Well, both are about share price. That's dealt with in the market.

There in lies the rub

fraudulent banking re-inflating markets with un-backed credit lines of monopoly money given to them by a fraudulent compromised FED.

[midas]

Well, both are about share price. That's dealt with in the market.

There in lies the rub

fraudulent banking re-inflating markets with un-backed credit lines of monopoly money given to them by a fraudulent compromised FED.

Its not a finanical crisis ..............its a crisis of loss of morals, a crisis of

not being to tell the truth any longer and a crisis where even the regulatory

authorities at best turned a blind eye and at worse were complicit in the fraud.

[lannarebirth]

Well, both are about share price. That's dealt with in the market.

There in lies the rub

fraudulent banking re-inflating markets with un-backed credit lines of monopoly money given to them by a fraudulent compromised FED.

Its not a finanical crisis ..............its a crisis of loss of morals, a crisis of

not being to tell the truth any longer and a crisis where even the regulatory

authorities at best turned a blind eye and at worse were complicit in the fraud.

Well, everyone loved those things when it made the markets go up. Now they're upset? The nerve.

[midas]

Well, both are about share price. That's dealt with in the market.

There in lies the rub

fraudulent banking re-inflating markets with un-backed credit lines of monopoly money given to them by a fraudulent compromised FED.

Its not a finanical crisis ..............its a crisis of loss of morals, a crisis of

not being to tell the truth any longer and a crisis where even the regulatory

authorities at best turned a blind eye and at worse were complicit in the fraud.

Well, everyone loved those things when it made the markets go up. Now they're upset? The nerve.

You are talking in riddles ( again ).

[Abrak]

Merkets are inherently dysfunctional. That is why behavioural economics is so popular today. However while these economists like say Shiller do a very good job of showing that markets do not equate to their equilibrium, they dont do a particularly good job in explaining why.

To me the 'why' is best explained by George Soros who is more of a trader and has a theory he calls 'reflexivity'. Essentially equations that go into making investment decisions are non-independent equations so that the end results can be self-reinforcing movements away from equilibrium.

BTW despite all that 'rational economics' stuff 'chaos theory' etc the idea that markets 'can' be irrational has been around forever. Soros's theory which admittedly has little academic support is that markets are 'inherently' irrational - that they naturally move from boom to bust rather than equilibrium.

[midas]

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

Joseph Goebbels

[flying]

This is the kind of market manipulation that I cannot even believe is allowed....

An Inside Look at How Goldman Sachs Lobbies the Senate

Matt Tabbi

(Editor's Note: The issue of "naked short selling" is one of the most important issues of the day when it comes to middle class America's economic survival. It is a heinous and very illegal practice and yet criminal politicians, regulators, banksters and members of the justice department are all culpable in its ongoing practice because it fuels the lobbyist's money machine (the same money machine that lines the criminal politicians pockets). I post this article in the Precious Metals forum because, currently, between Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan Chase, over 250 million ounces of silver are being sold short. This is silver that, not only do they not have (hence the term "naked short selling ") but is silver that doesn't even exist. When this practice is curtailed, the price of silver will "go to the moon". And silver is just one of dozens of markets that they are illegally manipulating. This activity should not just be considered criminal, but also treasonous. Oh, by the way, treason carries with it the death penalty. - JSB)

Article here..........

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/10.09/inside.html