Financial Crisis

[flying]

[Naam]

i wish i had the time to search and watch youtube clips. unfortunately i am too busy making dough because of market opportunities i haven't seen in years. but then... it's only a matter of time till i'm as rich as the resident youtube-clippers and then i'll make up, buy some gold, perhaps a ricefield or two and of course a buffalo!

and NO Zorro! i don't touch any disgusting shares

[Naam]

it's only a matter of time till i'm as rich as the resident youtube-clippers and then i'll make up, buy some gold, perhaps a ricefield or two and of course a buffalo!

and some bakeries!

[flying]

i wish i had the time to search and watch youtube clips. unfortunately i am too busy making dough because of market opportunities

Glad you could take a break from all that dough raking to pass along that important public service announcement

Also glad your doing well $$ wise...After all that is the most important thing right

[mommysboy]

But I'll allow the poster (who may be inexperienced or simply ignorant of the facts) the opportunity to get off his soapbox on this issue.

How did you come up with that <deleted> mate? The poster posted a link to an article.

Billy

It's a very emotive subject to be blithely linking. <deleted> to you n all with bells on!

[midas]

i wish i had the time to search and watch youtube clips. unfortunately i am too busy making dough because of market opportunities i haven't seen in years. but then... it's only a matter of time till i'm as rich as the resident youtube-clippers and then i'll make up, buy some gold, perhaps a ricefield or two and of course a buffalo!

and NO Zorro! i don't touch any disgusting shares

well its good that we dont all have the same values isnt it Naam ?

[midas]

The pressure cooker is building steam ................

http://www.showdowninchicago.org/index.html

[Naam]

i wish i had the time to search and watch youtube clips. unfortunately i am too busy making dough because of market opportunities

Glad you could take a break from all that dough raking to pass along that important public service announcement

Also glad your doing well $$ wise... After all that is the most important thing right

it is per se not the most important thing but -up to a certain degree- important as it enables me or the Mrs. to buy things which are important to us. that is... if we could find space in our home (which is very important to us) to place more things which are (or seem to be) important

[midas]

i wish i had the time to search and watch youtube clips. unfortunately i am too busy making dough because of market opportunities

Glad you could take a break from all that dough raking to pass along that important public service announcement

Also glad your doing well $$ wise... After all that is the most important thing right

it is per se not the most important thing but -up to a certain degree- important as it enables me or the Mrs. to buy things which are important to us. that is... if we could find space in our home (which is very important to us) to place more things which are (or seem to be) important

The Japanese call it " chindogu "................

[teletiger]

"More stuff".

Regards.

[Naam]

The Japanese call it " chindogu "................

when they shit in their rice fields to fertilise the crop?

[AlexLah]

It seems Naam is having another bad hair day so therefore a link to an interesting docu.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3...&q=detroit#

There is an interesting pattern there that you can recognize when asking yourself the right questions.

Think of cause and effect......

Take care all!

[flying]

New York Fed’s Secret Choice to Pay for Swaps Hits Taxpayers

[sokal]

i wish i had the time to search and watch youtube clips. unfortunately i am too busy making dough because of market opportunities i haven't seen in years. but then... it's only a matter of time till i'm as rich as the resident youtube-clippers and then i'll make up, buy some gold, perhaps a ricefield or two and of course a buffalo!

and NO Zorro! i don't touch any disgusting shares

oh, so you have no spare time ? This kind of stuff pops up on all the best financial sites around now and then.

You are probably finding as much opportunities as CaptainARK. Why don't you start your own thread if these are such good opportunities ?

Has your opportunity come knocking ?

[flying]

Dead Government Walking

[flying]

I told ya safety deposit boxes were not good hiding places

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/ar...er-fortune.html

[samuibeachcomber]

i wish i had the time to search and watch youtube clips. unfortunately i am too busy making dough because of market opportunities i haven't seen in years. but then... it's only a matter of time till i'm as rich as the resident youtube-clippers and then i'll make up, buy some gold, perhaps a ricefield or two and of course a buffalo!

and NO Zorro! i don't touch any disgusting shares

oh, so you have no spare time ? This kind of stuff pops up on all the best financial sites around now and then.

You are probably finding as much opportunities as CaptainARK. Why don't you start your own thread if these are such good opportunities ?

Has your opportunity come knocking ?

you take naam with a pinch of salt,no other way,great sense of the ridiculous for a kraut,usually reserved for the english.

[samuibeachcomber]

Dead Government Walking

even blind freddie knows,we all await with interest.

[Naam]

i wish i had the time to search and watch youtube clips. unfortunately i am too busy making dough because of market opportunities i haven't seen in years. but then... it's only a matter of time till i'm as rich as the resident youtube-clippers and then i'll make up, buy some gold, perhaps a ricefield or two and of course a buffalo!

and NO Zorro! i don't touch any disgusting shares

oh, so you have no spare time ? This kind of stuff pops up on all the best financial sites around now and then.

You are probably finding as much opportunities as CaptainARK. Why don't you start your own thread if these are such good opportunities ? Has your opportunity come knocking ?

i discussed the opportunities with Abrak (i think it was in this thread) months ago and i repeatedly mentioned them but nobody was interested. but the asset class i am trading is not for little boys and pocket money. the real big opportunities during the last six months were subordinate bonds of banks, insurance companies and big corporates with an excellent credit rating (GE et al). till end of september one could make excellent profits even with the minimum tradeable batches of €UR 50k and USD 100k. alas, profitable trading nowadays requires €UR 250-500k for a single trade.

any other questions or would you perhaps like that i post some ISIN Nos. to check for yourself? i will happily provide them but you will be bitterly crying when comparing the 300, 400 and even 500% profit in only a few months with the pittance of your gold appreciation this year.

[Abrak]

i wish i had the time to search and watch youtube clips. unfortunately i am too busy making dough because of market opportunities i haven't seen in years. but then... it's only a matter of time till i'm as rich as the resident youtube-clippers and then i'll make up, buy some gold, perhaps a ricefield or two and of course a buffalo!

and NO Zorro! i don't touch any disgusting shares

oh, so you have no spare time ? This kind of stuff pops up on all the best financial sites around now and then.

You are probably finding as much opportunities as CaptainARK. Why don't you start your own thread if these are such good opportunities ?

Has your opportunity come knocking ?

personally I feel it is fine to chat about say gold or the dollar on the Internet because it really is anyones guess as to what they are worth but if you have knowledge about say a stock bond or similar asset it would be counter productive to publish it on the Internet.

[Naam]

i wish i had the time to search and watch youtube clips. unfortunately i am too busy making dough because of market opportunities i haven't seen in years. but then... it's only a matter of time till i'm as rich as the resident youtube-clippers and then i'll make up, buy some gold, perhaps a ricefield or two and of course a buffalo!

and NO Zorro! i don't touch any disgusting shares

oh, so you have no spare time ? This kind of stuff pops up on all the best financial sites around now and then.

You are probably finding as much opportunities as CaptainARK. Why don't you start your own thread if these are such good opportunities ? Has your opportunity come knocking ?

personally I feel it is fine to chat about say gold or the dollar on the Internet because it really is anyones guess as to what they are worth but if you have knowledge about say a stock bond or similar asset it would be counter productive to publish it on the Internet.

in the asset class we were discussing in general i don't see any problem as it contains hundreds of bonds/debtors and it is highly unlikely that even the combined financial power of all TV-members can move markets worth >100 billion

one specific bond (Barclays?) we discussed in private messages.

[flying]

GMAC Asks for Fresh Lifeline

Lender in Advanced Talks for Third Slug of Taxpayer Cash -- at Least $2.8 Billion More

[flying]

BTW a broker told me today that consensus forecasts for GDP in 3Q are 2-2.5% growth in the US. This is basically down to restocking production is up, cash for clunkers and first home buyers subsidy.

The Broker was right & boy is the news here questioning it.

You know in hindsight I just did not expect the govt punchbowl could affect it that much but it did obviously.

Some very good discussions about it today via David Rosenberg, Rick Santelli etc.

Yet the reality remains the same here. GDP obviously is not a measure of well being

[12DrinkMore]

A social timebomb is set to explode in Britain

The true jobless total is already over five million – and the young are hardest hit, says Edmund Conway.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...in-Britain.html

And check out the comments, now over 100.

As I have said before, it is time that the metrics used to judge the state of an economy need to be reviewed. The GDP is the primary indicator, and I suppose the peeps out there need something simple to look at. But this is the same as simply looking at the turnover of a company. Surely the economic health of a company and a country can be broadly considered to be the same? Efficient resource usage and profitability are essential to the long term survival.

Here'a a blast from the past, a little piece of writing on the wall, from exactly four years ago, way back in the boom.

http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/e...ta-swindle.aspx

Could Britain already be tipping into a serious economic downturn? Something curious has happened to Gordon Brown’s ‘miracle’ economy. It has stopped producing private sector jobs. In fact, it stopped producing them in the summer of 2003.

and

Moving Britain’s unemployed from one side of a Dole Office desk... around to the other... might have reduced the official claimant count. But the public sector payroll has now swollen by 940,000 people since New Labour took office. Wage outlays have risen just short of 50% in the same period. The impact on newspaper headlines ahead of the General Election has been dramatic.

Like some hormone-drenched teenager stuffed full of burgers, Britain put on a “growth spurt” in the last 3 months of 2004, the ONS reported this week. The economy added 0.7% between October and December, up from a 0.5% rate of growth over the summer. This takes GDP growth for 2004 as a whole to 3.1%, the best annual figure since 2000. Growth in the final three months of 2004 marked the 50th consecutive quarter of expansion in Britain’s economy.

But the cost of this fraud is staggering. The state’s total expenditure grew more than 6.6% over the same period, and has risen 54% since 1997. And even though the public sector’s spending binge is eating private sector jobs, the headline figures report the longest period of economic growth in 200 years.

Now that’s magic!

Lest we forget....

Anybody going to vote for Labour next year?

[quiksilva]

Im abstaining this time, none of them seem any good, and tough to pick the best of a bad bunch.

[Abrak]

The Broker was right & boy is the news here questioning it.

You know in hindsight I just did not expect the govt punchbowl could affect it that much but it did obviously.

Some very good discussions about it today via David Rosenberg, Rick Santelli etc.

Yet the reality remains the same here. GDP obviously is not a measure of well being

He also said rather more controversially that GDP might slip back negative in the fourth quarter. Of the 3.5% growth 1.7% came from new car sales (cash for clunkers) which were back to a record low by September, 0.6% came from house build (while latest home starts were down) and 0.9% came from inventory build. By the time they have revised the quarterly growth number down by 30%, growth would actually have been negative without these factors.

[midas]

The Broker was right & boy is the news here questioning it.

You know in hindsight I just did not expect the govt punchbowl could affect it that much but it did obviously.

Some very good discussions about it today via David Rosenberg, Rick Santelli etc.

Yet the reality remains the same here. GDP obviously is not a measure of well being

He also said rather more controversially that GDP might slip back negative in the fourth quarter. Of the 3.5% growth 1.7% came from new car sales (cash for clunkers) which were back to a record low by September, 0.6% came from house build (while latest home starts were down) and 0.9% came from inventory build. By the time they have revised the quarterly growth number down by 30%, growth would actually have been negative without these factors.

The bottom line is how reliable on ANY figures given out by the Administration ?

I ask this because firstly we now know the unemployment figures are misleading and are

reached in a very unscientific way and then only yesterday

there was a story about voter registration fraud in USA whereby

16,000 teenagers had managed to register to vote because no had

thought asking for I.D. and proof of age……duh ?

[Abrak]

Well Flying if you are waiting for unemployment to drop you are waiting for Godot.

Here's a nice chart from Krugman.

I doubt that 3.5% growth would see a lower unemployment rate in a year's time especially with an 820k revision coming in February.

Personally, I think the buy story for the US is over (not that I have anything there.) The recovery to growth was highly predictable because economies (in general) dont go straight down (6 quarters is about a maximum) and then at least some restocking kicks in. Now if there is going to be a V shaped recovery then next quarter should show at least 6% growth but I bet it wont. All that happened in 3Q is they took the economy trudging along the bottom and shoved a red hot poker at it.

I mean buy on rumour sell on fact. 4q will almost certainly be positive - certainly every economist is forecasting it to be - but given the one offs in 3q, 4q growth may well be lower. That would be a nasty shock. So I can see a lot of people who bought at the first signs of green shoots (well hopefully slightly after) thinking 'mission accomplished'.

I mean if you look at consumer confidence there is nothing really going on....

[12DrinkMore]

These banking bastards just haven't understood.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...id=a1ZlLqcUMvZg

In the financial world, most executives expect their bonuses to match or exceed last year’s, with 1 in 10 predicting their best-ever payout.

Having shaken off the biggest economic decline since the 1930s, almost three in five traders, analysts and fund managers believe their 2009 bonuses will either increase or won’t change, according to a quarterly poll of Bloomberg customers.

Or maybe just don't give a shit.

I really detest this lot. They don't manufacture anything, they don't provide real jobs in the economy. They simply create money and give it to themselves at the expense of the tax payer.

Bastards.

[AlexLah]

Abrak or anyone else with access to good charts, could you please post a US graph (last ten 15 years or so) of quarterly GDP pos and neg growth?

It is really funny when you look at it taking into account the latest revelations on GDP growth.

(I can't post pictures anymore as I have reached my limit so have to find another way to get them here. Yes yes yes, I am fully aware that most of you hate it when I post some snaps and ask some funny questions, ha ha ha).

Anyway, read somewhere it would take at least 4 years to get employment levels back (in the US) to the levels before the crisis if they were somehow able to add 150.000 jobs a month. Now how would that be done?

Well at least a few thousand (10800) got a nice new job cleaning up former nuclear bomb test sites/waste dumps:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/24/us/24alamos.html?_r=1

How about cleaning up one of those:

http://switchboard.nrdc.org/coalash.php

Dow Jones Index is (it seems) following what I mentioned here a while back, but no dramatic downfall (no WS panic) but a downtrend indeed on the date I mentioned. Just about ten days into it now so let's see if it goes down further for at least another one to two weeks with some spikes in between.

No bragging here just analyzing from my data.

The clue I mentioned was: Three Zero Seven, and indeed (when looking at it) it would show you an up move and a top, followed by a down.

Jcon, where are you?

Kind regards

Alex