Financial Crisis

[Abrak]

In Thailand or generally? It's actually a really interesting topic. In China they have teams of central bank economist really focused on best use of reserves in real time. BoT have a much smaller economic unit looking into the same issue - but much less actively than China. Having met some of the people from BoT I was extremely impressed by their ability and knowledge - top people - although the science of using reserves in Thailand is at a very early stage and currency management appears to be the main focus.

We're putting together a research piece on this but that's several months away. I also know an affiliated research house that's also doing some very interesting work in a related field of central bank policy that should be ready before ours.

I am only really interested in Thailand. It has amassed huge reserve holdings fairly quickly. Also they are talking about farming out management of some of their reserves which I cannot believe is the right approach. I know currency management is their main focus. The problem is conceptually you should never acquire so much in terms of reserves. Excess reserves I would assume could be put to better use. They might lose a bundle this year.

[Naam]

"BoT"

i have met a few of them last year in Singapore and was impressed too. talking to them is one of the reasons why i am since months long Baht and pity those who's wishful thinking centers around "the Baht will crash anytime from now".

[Abrak]

But you have to have some starting point. It can't be ~$1100 per oz because

1) no way that the debtor countries could cancel that much currency in any reasonable timescale

2) $ 1100 is a price that doesn't assume a gold standard priced in there

Ok so start with US$1100. By definition you as the central reserve currency country must be acquiring debt as you are financing global liquidity through your current account (or dramatically slowing global growth). Now if you are acquiring debt every year I will simply take the gold rather than the US$1100 because you are going bust. As I know eventually you will go bust (or change to fiat/revalue). I also know that your whole gold backed currency scheme is a fraud. I am not stupid enough to take your paper. I also know if I wait long enough you will tell me to take the paper as they want swap it for gold.

[Naam]

Abrak,

you judge the actions of the BoT from your learned analytic macroeconomic egghead position (no offence meant but actually a compliment) without evaluating a bunch of reasons not known to any of us.

[Abrak]

It's an interesting debate - I'm surprised that there isn't more talk right now about sovereign securities such as the renten mark experiment; something like that might be a better 21st century version of the gold standard in an economy where other assets have assumed far greater economic real importance than gold. Seems more logical to little old me but never really seen much written or said about it....

You mention 'national interest' as opposed to 'reciprocal altruism'. National interest suggests large surpluses (larger resulting in increasingly worthless paper rewards.) Adjustments - devaluation or deflation - are made by deficit countries. This essentially minimizes growth while if surplus countries adjusted too, global growth could be increased. If surplus countries such as China had been exposed to taxes and if the currency reserve was central then imbalances would have been considerably less.

[jazzbo]

And in the long run...I also know if I wait long enough you will tell me to take the paper as they want swap it for gold.

The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. --JM Keynes (1923)

BTW I tricked the ThaiGF last night into taking useless Dollars converted into useless Baht and the silly girl then acted as if it wasn't fiat after all... Ah, the life of a Pragmatst

and Jazz the alternative is what? Stop caring? Stop debating? Stop learning? WADR Kuhn G the alternative is get off one's a-- and start doing.

"What we're saying today is that you're either part of the solution or you're part of the problem" -- Eldridge Cleaver ... I intend, somehow, to be at least part of a solution... maybe I'll become a community organizer.

Edited March 20, 2010 by jazzbo

[Abrak]

Abrak,

you judge the actions of the BoT from your learned analytic macroeconomic egghead position (no offence meant but actually a compliment) without evaluating a bunch of reasons not known to any of us.

Essentially the BoT sees currency intervention as a cost benefit analysis of a competitive currency (gains) against a forex (loss). The more currency they sterilize the more the loss until such time as the losses outweigh the gains (at which point they allow appreciation (or increased inflation)). Now the last bit I am sure you can work out for yourself which is that if you wish to bet against them you only have to play one side and you know the bigger you play the bigger the loss and eventually it will become selfulfilling. Their approach is silly from a traders point of view. If breakeven intervention is US$70bn and they have already spent US$40bn, they have already lost.

They publish their balance sheet every week. So to a trader the concept that 'we will continue to intervene until the costs outweigh the rewards' is really a question of 'how much is that exactly'.

So if asked you as a trader 'if my breakeven is US$70bn, how much can I spend until I cannot intervene productively anymore' the answer is not US$70bn.

Now I am sure you as a trader understand that concept. Cost benefit analysis is not really a sensible approach but is an economists approach rather than a traders.

[Abrak]

Abrak,

you judge the actions of the BoT from your learned analytic macroeconomic egghead position (no offence meant but actually a compliment) without evaluating a bunch of reasons not known to any of us.

Essentially the BoT sees currency intervention as a cost benefit analysis of a competitive currency (gains) against a forex (loss). The more currency they sterilize the more the loss until such time as the losses outweigh the gains (at which point they allow appreciation (or increased inflation)). Now the last bit I am sure you can work out for yourself which is that if you wish to bet against them you only have to play one side and you know the bigger you play the bigger the loss and eventually it will become selfulfilling. Their approach is silly from a traders point of view. If breakeven intervention is US$70bn and they have already spent US$40bn, they have already lost.

They publish their balance sheet every week. So to a trader the concept that 'we will continue to intervene until the costs outweigh the rewards' is really a question of 'how much is that exactly'.

So if asked you as a trader 'if my breakeven is US$70bn, how much can I spend until I cannot intervene productively anymore' the answer is not US$70bn.

Now I am sure you as a trader understand that concept. Cost benefit analysis is not really a sensible approach but is an economists approach rather than a traders.

[sokal]

And in the long run...I also know if I wait long enough you will tell me to take the paper as they want swap it for gold.

The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. --JM Keynes (1923)

BTW I tricked the ThaiGF last night into taking useless Dollars converted into useless Baht and the silly girl then acted as if it wasn't fiat after all... Ah, the life of a Pragmatst

and Jazz the alternative is what? Stop caring? Stop debating? Stop learning? WADR Kuhn G the alternative is get off your a-- and start doing.

The hits just keep on coming for Paul Krugman. Today on Press TV, Max Keiser said " Some of the clap trap coming out of Paul Krugman these days, he doesn't seem to have anything more then a highschool social studies level of education" Not allot of people have been saying this stuff about Peter Schiff.

[lannarebirth]

And in the long run...I also know if I wait long enough you will tell me to take the paper as they want swap it for gold.

The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. --JM Keynes (1923)

BTW I tricked the ThaiGF last night into taking useless Dollars converted into useless Baht and the silly girl then acted as if it wasn't fiat after all... Ah, the life of a Pragmatst

and Jazz the alternative is what? Stop caring? Stop debating? Stop learning? WADR Kuhn G the alternative is get off your a-- and start doing.

The hits just keep on coming for Paul Krugman. Today on Press TV, Max Keiser said " Some of the clap trap coming out of Paul Krugman these days, he doesn't seem to have anything more then a highschool social studies level of education" Not allot of people have been saying this stuff about Peter Schiff.

These rhetorical discussions can be fun when you don't have any skin in the game.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...-was-wrong.html

[jazzbo]

I leave you gentleman now and you will write it. You will interpret it. That's your right. But as I leave you I want you to know — just think how much you're going to be missing. You won't have Nixon to kick around any more, because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference -- Richard M. Nixon (1962)

[sokal]

And in the long run...I also know if I wait long enough you will tell me to take the paper as they want swap it for gold.

The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. --JM Keynes (1923)

BTW I tricked the ThaiGF last night into taking useless Dollars converted into useless Baht and the silly girl then acted as if it wasn't fiat after all... Ah, the life of a Pragmatst

and Jazz the alternative is what? Stop caring? Stop debating? Stop learning? WADR Kuhn G the alternative is get off your a-- and start doing.

The hits just keep on coming for Paul Krugman. Today on Press TV, Max Keiser said " Some of the clap trap coming out of Paul Krugman these days, he doesn't seem to have anything more then a highschool social studies level of education" Not allot of people have been saying this stuff about Peter Schiff.

These rhetorical discussions can be fun when you don't have any skin in the game.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...-was-wrong.html

His livelihood is in the game.

Mish ate all those words in 09 when bonds and the dollar took a beating and stocks went up around the world. Also, Mish is assuming that all of Schiffs clients went all in 100% in all the market tops. Since when has that ever happened ? Schiff was getting his clients into gold in 1999, same with foreign stocks. The Hang Seng was 8900 in 03, gold was $250 in 99 00. Schiff is a long term investor, not a trader. It shows by his record over 10 years,not his record over 1 or 2.

Does Mish assume that it is all over ? Peter Schiff is has been saying that this crash has just started. Time will tell, chances are with Bernanke at the fed that something bad will happen to the USD and we will be watching more episodes of `Peter Schiff was right.

Do you think that the crash is all over ? Bernanke throws a few trillion dollars around and everything is fine ?

[Gambles]

In Thailand or generally? It's actually a really interesting topic. In China they have teams of central bank economist really focused on best use of reserves in real time. BoT have a much smaller economic unit looking into the same issue - but much less actively than China. Having met some of the people from BoT I was extremely impressed by their ability and knowledge - top people - although the science of using reserves in Thailand is at a very early stage and currency management appears to be the main focus.

We're putting together a research piece on this but that's several months away. I also know an affiliated research house that's also doing some very interesting work in a related field of central bank policy that should be ready before ours.

I am only really interested in Thailand. It has amassed huge reserve holdings fairly quickly. Also they are talking about farming out management of some of their reserves which I cannot believe is the right approach. I know currency management is their main focus. The problem is conceptually you should never acquire so much in terms of reserves. Excess reserves I would assume could be put to better use. They might lose a bundle this year.

I think that from a strict P&L perspective they lose every year because they see it as a hedging operation and a form of risk management rather than speculation. That probably applies this year too if USD strengthens although it probably goes out of the window next year if USD starts a multi-year decline. The rules of the game then change dramatically and that requires a huge paradigm shift.

I'll try to let you know how the big research piece on central banks comes along. I've just written a couple of hundred words on lessons that The Fed should learn from the BoT if anyone's interested?

[Gambles]

"BoT"

i have met a few of them last year in Singapore and was impressed too. talking to them is one of the reasons why i am since months long Baht and pity those who's wishful thinking centers around "the Baht will crash anytime from now".

cha-laad, Herr Naam

Baht is fundamentally sound

For now I see Dollar has very good short term strength potentially but medium to longer term I prefer Baht and SGD to any western currencies at current values

A sustaine dperiod of more Baht to the Pound or Euro could be just wishful thinking....don't get me started on the Aud!

[Gambles]

But you have to have some starting point. It can't be ~$1100 per oz because

1) no way that the debtor countries could cancel that much currency in any reasonable timescale

2) $ 1100 is a price that doesn't assume a gold standard priced in there

Ok so start with US$1100. By definition you as the central reserve currency country must be acquiring debt as you are financing global liquidity through your current account (or dramatically slowing global growth). Now if you are acquiring debt every year I will simply take the gold rather than the US$1100 because you are going bust. As I know eventually you will go bust (or change to fiat/revalue). I also know that your whole gold backed currency scheme is a fraud. I am not stupid enough to take your paper. I also know if I wait long enough you will tell me to take the paper as they want swap it for gold.

no, my dear Abrak,

do not start with $ 1,100

Gold standard couldn't possibly be re-introduced at that level

America would accept that under one set of circumstances only - military occupation by China.

Start with [(US money supply / US gold) X 4] and you might have a plausible opening case

In which case gold and paper should be equivalent and as long as X 4 is enough to cover future unfunded obligations then you set a reasonable baseline for USA to try to live within. You then have to model this for other currencies. In this case will America's debtors accept this debasement of the USD? Yes as long as the US army occupies China.

I believe that the imbalances seem to have become too great for there to be any reasonable level at which to re-introduce gold and it would be better to look at alternatives - hence my current, possibly short-lived infatuation with the Rentenmark - why aren't we looking at creative ideas like this?? but with the asset-backing fully securitised like in a commercial transaction.

[Gambles]

It's an interesting debate - I'm surprised that there isn't more talk right now about sovereign securities such as the renten mark experiment; something like that might be a better 21st century version of the gold standard in an economy where other assets have assumed far greater economic real importance than gold. Seems more logical to little old me but never really seen much written or said about it....

You mention 'national interest' as opposed to 'reciprocal altruism'. National interest suggests large surpluses (larger resulting in increasingly worthless paper rewards.) Adjustments - devaluation or deflation - are made by deficit countries. This essentially minimizes growth while if surplus countries adjusted too, global growth could be increased. If surplus countries such as China had been exposed to taxes and if the currency reserve was central then imbalances would have been considerably less.

and if granny had had balls she would have been Granddad. While national self-interst prevails (and it does) you're never going to get that

- debtor countries are like addicts; they know it's bad but they want more. Surplus countries are like drug dealers;they know it's bad for their clients but hey these guys keep asking for it....sadly there are too many sovereign financial addicts out there; neither side can just say "no"

[Gambles]

And in the long run...I also know if I wait long enough you will tell me to take the paper as they want swap it for gold.

The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead. --JM Keynes (1923)

BTW I tricked the ThaiGF last night into taking useless Dollars converted into useless Baht and the silly girl then acted as if it wasn't fiat after all... Ah, the life of a Pragmatst

and Jazz the alternative is what? Stop caring? Stop debating? Stop learning? WADR Kuhn G the alternative is get off one's a-- and start doing.

"What we're saying today is that you're either part of the solution or you're part of the problem" -- Eldridge Cleaver ... I intend, somehow, to be at least part of a solution... maybe I'll become a community organizer.

you got me there - actions should speak louder than words!

[Gambles]

I leave you gentleman now and you will write it. You will interpret it. That's your right. But as I leave you I want you to know — just think how much you're going to be missing. You won't have Nixon to kick around any more, because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference -- Richard M. Nixon (1962)

if only

[Gambles]

Mish ate all those words in 09 when bonds and the dollar took a beating and stocks went up around the world. Also, Mish is assuming that all of Schiffs clients went all in 100% in all the market tops. Since when has that ever happened ? Schiff was getting his clients into gold in 1999, same with foreign stocks. The Hang Seng was 8900 in 03, gold was $250 in 99 00. Schiff is a long term investor, not a trader. It shows by his record over 10 years,not his record over 1 or 2.

Does Mish assume that it is all over ? Peter Schiff is has been saying that this crash has just started. Time will tell, chances are with Bernanke at the fed that something bad will happen to the USD and we will be watching more episodes of `Peter Schiff was right.

Do you think that the crash is all over ? Bernanke throws a few trillion dollars around and everything is fine ?

Can I just say that as someone 'in the game' Schiff is widely respected as an advisor and that on the only dealings that I've ever had with him, he came over as a very decent guy.

[churchill]

"BoT"

i have met a few of them last year in Singapore and was impressed too. talking to them is one of the reasons why i am since months long Baht and pity those who's wishful thinking centers around "the Baht will crash anytime from now".

cha-laad, Herr Naam

Baht is fundamentally sound

For now I see Dollar has very good short term strength potentially but medium to longer term I prefer Baht and SGD to any western currencies at current values

A sustaine dperiod of more Baht to the Pound or Euro could be just wishful thinking....don't get me started on the Aud!

OK questions for the BOT insiders ! As the USD seems to have some temporary strength the pressure is off the Baht and SGD and the Yuan ( even though they have been rising whilst the USD has been rising )- but all these countries have inflation which will mean higher interest rates - The USD is surely going to weaken at some stage as is the Yuan going to be revalued up -

So as Asian currencies strengthen against the Euro , GBP and USD how is that going to effect the S/E Asian economies ? Perhaps they are going to become too expensive for people to retire to and may become expensive holiday destinations instead of cheap - apart from those within Asian - So are we going to be increasingly relying on Chinese and Indian tourists and investors instead of Euro and US ?

What will come of the property market ?

and what about those of us who are here and relying on income/pensions from the West /

For those that can - to switch from USD and GBP to SGD or Thai Baht - but where to invest in those currencies , stocks ? and not everyone has that flexibility with their pensions . Can one invest for instance in Gold Shares in SGD or Thai Baht ?

[Naam]

"BoT"

i have met a few of them last year in Singapore and was impressed too. talking to them is one of the reasons why i am since months long Baht and pity those who's wishful thinking centers around "the Baht will crash anytime from now".

cha-laad, Herr Naam

Baht is fundamentally sound

For now I see Dollar has very good short term strength potentially but medium to longer term I prefer Baht and SGD to any western currencies at current values

A sustaine dperiod of more Baht to the Pound or Euro could be just wishful thinking....don't get me started on the Aud!

one must however not forget the bottom line which is that a bunch of assets denominated in "western currencies" yield a multiple of those denominated in THB, SGD or AUD. besides that the selection of assets is infinitely higher than those of the latter currencies. only when cash is compared with cash the "local" currencies look better.

[sokal]

"BoT"

i have met a few of them last year in Singapore and was impressed too. talking to them is one of the reasons why i am since months long Baht and pity those who's wishful thinking centers around "the Baht will crash anytime from now".

cha-laad, Herr Naam

Baht is fundamentally sound

For now I see Dollar has very good short term strength potentially but medium to longer term I prefer Baht and SGD to any western currencies at current values

A sustaine dperiod of more Baht to the Pound or Euro could be just wishful thinking....don't get me started on the Aud!

OK questions for the BOT insiders ! As the USD seems to have some temporary strength the pressure is off the Baht and SGD and the Yuan ( even though they have been rising whilst the USD has been rising )- but all these countries have inflation which will mean higher interest rates - The USD is surely going to weaken at some stage as is the Yuan going to be revalued up -

So as Asian currencies strengthen against the Euro , GBP and USD how is that going to effect the S/E Asian economies ? Perhaps they are going to become too expensive for people to retire to and may become expensive holiday destinations instead of cheap - apart from those within Asian - So are we going to be increasingly relying on Chinese and Indian tourists and investors instead of Euro and US ?

What will come of the property market ?

and what about those of us who are here and relying on income/pensions from the West /

For those that can - to switch from USD and GBP to SGD or Thai Baht - but where to invest in those currencies , stocks ? and not everyone has that flexibility with their pensions . Can one invest for instance in Gold Shares in SGD or Thai Baht ?

As these currencies strengthen, energy and commodities will become cheaper for the S/E Asian economies. They will not have to rely on exports as much because they will be able to import more. This does not happen over night but yes, these destinations will become more expensive for retirement and travel.

It depends on the kind of income you rely on from the west and what currency you are in.

Switching to SGD is a good idea. Just open a brokerage account in SGD. Singapore and Thailand have lots of good RIETS and dividend paying stocks to invest in. Peter Schiff's brokerage firm, Europacific Capital, specializes is exactly what you want to do.

[churchill]

"BoT"

i have met a few of them last year in Singapore and was impressed too. talking to them is one of the reasons why i am since months long Baht and pity those who's wishful thinking centers around "the Baht will crash anytime from now".

cha-laad, Herr Naam

Baht is fundamentally sound

For now I see Dollar has very good short term strength potentially but medium to longer term I prefer Baht and SGD to any western currencies at current values

A sustaine dperiod of more Baht to the Pound or Euro could be just wishful thinking....don't get me started on the Aud!

OK questions for the BOT insiders ! As the USD seems to have some temporary strength the pressure is off the Baht and SGD and the Yuan ( even though they have been rising whilst the USD has been rising )- but all these countries have inflation which will mean higher interest rates - The USD is surely going to weaken at some stage as is the Yuan going to be revalued up -

So as Asian currencies strengthen against the Euro , GBP and USD how is that going to effect the S/E Asian economies ? Perhaps they are going to become too expensive for people to retire to and may become expensive holiday destinations instead of cheap - apart from those within Asian - So are we going to be increasingly relying on Chinese and Indian tourists and investors instead of Euro and US ?

What will come of the property market ?

and what about those of us who are here and relying on income/pensions from the West /

For those that can - to switch from USD and GBP to SGD or Thai Baht - but where to invest in those currencies , stocks ? and not everyone has that flexibility with their pensions . Can one invest for instance in Gold Shares in SGD or Thai Baht ?

As these currencies strengthen, energy and commodities will become cheaper for the S/E Asian economies. They will not have to rely on exports as much because they will be able to import more. This does not happen over night but yes, these destinations will become more expensive for retirement and travel.

It depends on the kind of income you rely on from the west and what currency you are in.

Switching to SGD is a good idea. Just open a brokerage account in SGD. Singapore and Thailand have lots of good RIETS and dividend paying stocks to invest in. Peter Schiff's brokerage firm, Europacific Capital, specializes is exactly what you want to do.

Thanks for the tip /

[Gambles]

"BoT"

i have met a few of them last year in Singapore and was impressed too. talking to them is one of the reasons why i am since months long Baht and pity those who's wishful thinking centers around "the Baht will crash anytime from now".

cha-laad, Herr Naam

Baht is fundamentally sound

For now I see Dollar has very good short term strength potentially but medium to longer term I prefer Baht and SGD to any western currencies at current values

A sustained period of more Baht to the Pound or Euro could be just wishful thinking....don't get me started on the Aud!

As you all may know I think Dollar will fall off a cliff at some point and that is when the Asian currencies will really come into their own - however we expect to see Euro, GBP and AUD collapse first (not neccessarily in that order). It's far from being a given and if it does happen it's unclear how long it will take. The currency vol could have an impact on asset prices - especially equities and commodities - the key remains complete geographical and asset class diversification. Chasing stocks or REITs could easily end in tears. This is why we pioneered active global diversification hedged into THB and SGD. To my mind, that should be the only game in town right now. Add the whistles & bells once the picture becomes clearer.

OK questions for the BOT insiders ! As the USD seems to have some temporary strength the pressure is off the Baht and SGD and the Yuan ( even though they have been rising whilst the USD has been rising )- but all these countries have inflation which will mean higher interest rates - The USD is surely going to weaken at some stage as is the Yuan going to be revalued up -

So as Asian currencies strengthen against the Euro , GBP and USD how is that going to effect the S/E Asian economies ? Perhaps they are going to become too expensive for people to retire to and may become expensive holiday destinations instead of cheap - apart from those within Asian - So are we going to be increasingly relying on Chinese and Indian tourists and investors instead of Euro and US ?

What will come of the property market ?

and what about those of us who are here and relying on income/pensions from the West /

For those that can - to switch from USD and GBP to SGD or Thai Baht - but where to invest in those currencies , stocks ? and not everyone has that flexibility with their pensions . Can one invest for instance in Gold Shares in SGD or Thai Baht ?

[flying]

As you all may know I think Dollar will fall off a cliff at some point and that is when the Asian currencies will really come into their own - however we expect to see Euro, GBP and AUD collapse first (not neccessarily in that order). It's far from being a given and if it does happen it's unclear how long it will take. The currency vol could have an impact on asset prices - especially equities and commodities - the key remains complete geographical and asset class diversification. Chasing stocks or REITs could easily end in tears. This is why we pioneered active global diversification hedged into THB and SGD. To my mind, that should be the only game in town right now. Add the whistles & bells once the picture becomes clearer.

Looked like your last post got merged into a previous quote

[Gambles]

"BoT"

i have met a few of them last year in Singapore and was impressed too. talking to them is one of the reasons why i am since months long Baht and pity those who's wishful thinking centers around "the Baht will crash anytime from now".

cha-laad, Herr Naam

Baht is fundamentally sound

For now I see Dollar has very good short term strength potentially but medium to longer term I prefer Baht and SGD to any western currencies at current values

A sustaine dperiod of more Baht to the Pound or Euro could be just wishful thinking....don't get me started on the Aud!

one must however not forget the bottom line which is that a bunch of assets denominated in "western currencies" yield a multiple of those denominated in THB, SGD or AUD. besides that the selection of assets is infinitely higher than those of the latter currencies. only when cash is compared with cash the "local" currencies look better.

Historically that was the case but capital supply and demand has created opportunities to derive attractive returns now in SGD and THB....

[Naam]

For those that can - to switch from USD and GBP to SGD or Thai Baht - but where to invest in those currencies , stocks ? and not everyone has that flexibility with their pensions . Can one invest for instance in Gold Shares in SGD or Thai Baht ?

Churchill, reading your question i can only shake my head

[Naam]

For those that can - to switch from USD and GBP to SGD or Thai Baht - but where to invest in those currencies , stocks ? and not everyone has that flexibility with their pensions . Can one invest for instance in Gold Shares in SGD or Thai Baht ?

Churchill, reading your question i can only shake my head

the same goes for Sokal's "Switching to SGD is a good idea. Just open a brokerage account in SGD. Singapore and Thailand have lots of good RIETS and dividend paying stocks to invest in."

[Gambles]

Sorry guys - not sure what I did when I tried to post this earlier - this is how it should have been.

Thanks for the heads up, Flying.

Apologies,

Paul

As you all may know I think Dollar will fall off a cliff at some point and that is when the Asian currencies will really come into their own - however we expect to see Euro, GBP and AUD collapse first (not neccessarily in that order). It's far from being a given and if it does happen it's unclear how long it will take. The currency vol could have an impact on asset prices - especially equities and commodities - the key remains complete geographical and asset class diversification. Chasing stocks or REITs could easily end in tears. This is why we pioneered active global diversification hedged into THB and SGD. To my mind, that should be the only game in town right now. Add the whistles & bells once the picture becomes clearer

"BoT"

i have met a few of them last year in Singapore and was impressed too. talking to them is one of the reasons why i am since months long Baht and pity those who's wishful thinking centers around "the Baht will crash anytime from now".

cha-laad, Herr Naam

Baht is fundamentally sound

For now I see Dollar has very good short term strength potentially but medium to longer term I prefer Baht and SGD to any western currencies at current values

A sustained period of more Baht to the Pound or Euro could be just wishful thinking....don't get me started on the Aud!

OK questions for the BOT insiders ! As the USD seems to have some temporary strength the pressure is off the Baht and SGD and the Yuan ( even though they have been rising whilst the USD has been rising )- but all these countries have inflation which will mean higher interest rates - The USD is surely going to weaken at some stage as is the Yuan going to be revalued up -

So as Asian currencies strengthen against the Euro , GBP and USD how is that going to effect the S/E Asian economies ? Perhaps they are going to become too expensive for people to retire to and may become expensive holiday destinations instead of cheap - apart from those within Asian - So are we going to be increasingly relying on Chinese and Indian tourists and investors instead of Euro and US ?

What will come of the property market ?

and what about those of us who are here and relying on income/pensions from the West /

For those that can - to switch from USD and GBP to SGD or Thai Baht - but where to invest in those currencies , stocks ? and not everyone has that flexibility with their pensions . Can one invest for instance in Gold Shares in SGD or Thai Baht ?

[Abrak]

This is why we pioneered active global diversification hedged into THB and SGD. To my mind, that should be the only game in town right now. Add the whistles & bells once the picture becomes clearer

Can you explain Gambles. It doesnt seem much of a game to me as a concept or not one to make money.

But I have never been strong on the concept of diversification as an investment strategy to start with so maybe it isnt all about making money. Diversification is a massively failed business strategy.

And it is always a little confusing to use 'diversification' and 'hedge' together as they sort of mean the same while 'hedge' as in 'hedge funds' usually means the opposite.

I mean 'pioneered active global diversification hedged' at least needs that thing you put at the end of some posts.

It sounds like a bit of a scam being 'active global diversification hedged' on the basis I see no reason to be 'active' if I am 'global diversification hedged'. 'Pioneering' the concept is not something you should be proud of. It essentially seems to amount to a 'passive' investment strategy.

Edited March 21, 2010 by Abrak