Financial Crisis

[Naam]

I read this comment from a guy from Slovakia

" Cronos

I was in Slovakia when it went into the EU in 2004. They did not join the Euro Zone and go on the Euro until Jan. 2009.

I left Slovakia on Jan 9 of that year. The economy is now in a mess, along with all of Europe. It is a great little country.

I wish they had stayed out of the EU."

blaming the adoption of the €UR instead of the aftermath of the financial crisis is nothing but ridiculous! next thing to expect is that global warming, swine flue, Lehman bankruptcy, ladyboys in Pattaya, O'Bama's election, the pregnancy of our cook and tsunamis are caused by the EU and the €UR.

[waza]

Hi this web page will explain when the third wave will hit and why.

http://www.ewgms.em.extrememember.com/2010/11/g4-weekly-market-wrap-12th-november-2010/

[midas]

Hi this web page will explain when the third wave will hit and why.

http://www.ewgms.em.extrememember.com/2010/11/g4-weekly-market-wrap-12th-november-2010/

" If we look at past market crashes, it can be seen that it is quite normal for a dramatic share market plunge to be followed by a strong rally culminating in a further dramatic fall in a third wave.

One example is the 1929 crash of the DOW Jones index. Note the 50% decline followed by a retracement rally which recovered around 50% of the original plunge. "

Yes but in 1929 the Fed hadnt fully discovered the power of its printing press ?

That was then in the days when markets were markets - not the sorry excuse for one we have now

Edited January 5, 2011 by midas

[midas]

Hi this web page will explain when the third wave will hit and why.

http://www.ewgms.em.extrememember.com/2010/11/g4-weekly-market-wrap-12th-november-2010/

" If we look at past market crashes, it can be seen that it is quite normal for a dramatic share market plunge to be followed by a strong rally culminating in a further dramatic fall in a third wave.

One example is the 1929 crash of the DOW Jones index. Note the 50% decline followed by a retracement rally which recovered around 50% of the original plunge. "

Yes but in 1929 the Fed hadnt fully discovered the power of its printing press ?

That was then in the days when markets were markets - not the sorry excuse for one we have now

And other have entirely different ideas

Birinyi’s Projected 322% S&P 500 Advance Beats ’90s Tech Rally

I wonder if not giving out food stamps would make any difference ?

Laszlo Birinyi says the U.S. stocks rally that began in March 2009 may produce bigger gains than the technology boom of the 1990s, if history is a guide.

Birinyi, who was one of the first money managers to advise buying American equities as they bottomed almost 22 months ago, said yesterday that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may increase to 2,854 on Sept. 4, 2013, based on the average size of advances. That requires a 322 percent surge from the low of 676.53 in March 2009, beating the 302 percent rally during the bull market of October 1990 to July 1998.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-01-05/birinyi-s-projected-322-s-p-500-advance-beats-90s-tech-rally.html

[craigt3365]

For sure, not all are pessimistic. Here is an interesting article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/24/business/economy/24forecast.html?emc=eta1

And another regarding electronic trading. I also saw a news report about a company that has installed a computer system right underneath the trading floor. Their reasoning is they get the data just that much faster and can act on it faster than anyone else. Crazy. Makes it tough for the small guys to make money!

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/02/business/02speed.html?nl=todaysheadlines&emc=globasasa24

[AlexLah]

History is about to be repeated.

[lannarebirth]

History is about to be repeated.

Ooh, my favorite subject!

[lannarebirth]

It's always "different this time", and there are lots of good reasons for that, but is it really?

Edited January 7, 2011 by lannarebirth

[LaoPo]

History is about to be repeated.

Ooh, my favorite subject!

A Ladyboy if you ask me....

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

It's always "different this time", and there are lots of good reasons for that, but is it really?

Actually, when I look at that again there doesn't seem to be any ST or IT correlation. Long term, yeah. Anyhow, as of yesterday, out of long ES and short ES. Probably not THE top.

[mania]

Some Very Bad News For The "Sweep Fraudclosure Under The Rug" Brigade

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/some-very-bad-news-sweep-fraudclosure-under-rub-brigade

Presenting The Full Ibanez Supreme Court Ruling

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/presenting-full-ibanez-supreme-court-ruling

[midas]

I have a question for flying or any other USA citizen.

We have covered this topic before - i.e. how the BLS figures are bullshit !

All the wasteful manhours needed to carry out these surveys and interviews and even then

they cannot be sure that the parties to the interview get it right ?

With all the computerisation skills in USA why cant they simply tap into

the IRS data base and instantly see who is paying income tax and who isn't

as a frame work for who is employed and who isnt ? If there is any doubt

the IRS could simply interview that person to verify the situation ?

http://www.businessinsider.com/labor-force-drop-out-2011-1

Edited January 9, 2011 by midas

[AlexLah]

Midas, nobody in the US really cares it seems.

How about this?

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/01.11/deathsquad.html

I guess those prescription drugs are doing a nice job to keep the sheeple calm.

[LaoPo]

Interesting read from SPIEGEL ONLINE what Mr Roubini has to say about Europe:

SPIEGEL Interview with Economist Nouriel Roubini

'Europe Needs Growth to Prevent a Collapse of the Euro'

Europe, says star economist Nouriel Roubini, needs to take immediate action to shore up the euro. In an interview with SPIEGEL, Roubini said Germany must provide more money to defend the common currency and allow the European Central Bank to loosen monetary policy. Otherwise, disaster could be looming.

SPIEGEL: Mr. Roubini, when you recently acquired a new penthouse in Manhattan for $5.5 million observers on both sides of the Atlantic hailed it as a sign: The man who predicted the financial crisis had regained confidence in the US housing market and in the US economy.

Roubini: There's a bit of good news -- and a lot of bad news. In 2011, the US economy will likely grow by 2.7 percent. That's a robust rate of growth. The risk of a second slump has dropped considerably. The US Federal Reserve's policy of buying government bonds and the middle-class tax benefits of the Obama administration are already having an effect. That's the good news.

SPIEGEL: And the bad news?

Roubini: The persisting housing crisis, the implications of this on the financial condition of banks and, above all, the high public debt and deficit, both at the federal and state levels. The US is in a dilemma. In the medium term, there is no getting around budget consolidation, otherwise the country will be threatened by a debt crisis such as Europe is currently experiencing. However, given the weak recovery so far, the US must do all it can to boost economic growth.

SPIEGEL: Tax cuts for the super rich, which are part of President Barack Obama's tax package, are hardly going to create additional growth.

Continues here:

http://www.spiegel.d...,738711,00.html

LaoPo

[midas]

Midas, nobody in the US really cares it seems.

How about this?

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/01.11/deathsquad.html

I guess those prescription drugs are doing a nice job to keep the sheeple calm.

Yes Alex - they just keep sweeping it under the carpet. I saw yesterday

that 52% of those in US that have have been re-employed had to take pay cuts

and 25% suffered a salary drop of 20% or more And they say the housing market

has hit the bottom. Yeah yeah

[BlackJack]

00:00 Chart of the day

China's US dollar reserves have recently swelled in excess of US$ 2.5 trillion. This is more than double India's current GDP. Also it is amongst the largest in the world. Little wonder that Fed Chief Ben Bernanke is happy to keep the dollar printing press running overtime. This is while the Chinese policymakers are losing sleep over it. Japan is not too far behind, fretting over the precarious state of US and European economies. Amongst the largest economies in the world, China and Japan have the maximum share of currency holdings in their national reserves. The steady decline in the value of their reserves is therefore a concern to them.

China may want to keep its currency artificially low to retain its export competitiveness. But in the bargain accumulating foreign exchange that is steadily shedding value is a losing proposition. As per Wikipedia, the two behemoths had barely 1.7% as 3% of their reserves in gold respectively at the end of 2010. Meanwhile, economies like the US and Europe had nearly 70% of their reserves in gold at the end of 2010. They will therefore be happy to see the value of the yellow metal escalate. However, the fact that the biggest economic growth drivers in the world (BRIC nations) hold the maximum currency reserves could be a potent disaster. If the dollar and the euro keep steadily losing value the BRIC economies may choose to dump them in favour of gold. Important to note that central bank holdings are just a fifth of the world's gold holdings. Looks like the next round of gold bull-run will come sooner than expected and would perhaps be larger than ever.

Data source: Casey's Daily Dispatch, Wikipedia

[BlackJack]

00:00 Chart of the day

China's US dollar reserves have recently swelled in excess of US$ 2.5 trillion. This is more than double India's current GDP. Also it is amongst the largest in the world. Little wonder that Fed Chief Ben Bernanke is happy to keep the dollar printing press running overtime. This is while the Chinese policymakers are losing sleep over it. Japan is not too far behind, fretting over the precarious state of US and European economies. Amongst the largest economies in the world, China and Japan have the maximum share of currency holdings in their national reserves. The steady decline in the value of their reserves is therefore a concern to them.

China may want to keep its currency artificially low to retain its export competitiveness. But in the bargain accumulating foreign exchange that is steadily shedding value is a losing proposition. As per Wikipedia, the two behemoths had barely 1.7% as 3% of their reserves in gold respectively at the end of 2010. Meanwhile, economies like the US and Europe had nearly 70% of their reserves in gold at the end of 2010. They will therefore be happy to see the value of the yellow metal escalate. However, the fact that the biggest economic growth drivers in the world (BRIC nations) hold the maximum currency reserves could be a potent disaster. If the dollar and the euro keep steadily losing value the BRIC economies may choose to dump them in favour of gold. Important to note that central bank holdings are just a fifth of the world's gold holdings. Looks like the next round of gold bull-run will come sooner than expected and would perhaps be larger than ever.

Data source: Casey's Daily Dispatch, Wikipedia

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

[mania]

Midas, nobody in the US really cares it seems

I do not think that is the case but,

Those that see have given up telling others or crying about it.

Instead they do what they can do get ready as best they can.

You also have to understand the majority of Congress & Senate do not even fully understand the problem.

So of course most of the working middle class do not either.

[midas]

Midas, nobody in the US really cares it seems

I do not think that is the case but,

Those that see have given up telling others or crying about it.

Instead they do what they can do get ready as best they can.

You also have to understand the majority of Congress & Senate do not even fully understand the problem.

So of course most of the working middle class do not either.

Well that or they are deliberately lying and deceiving ( i believe that

more than ignorance ) - but the worst part is the public

pay their salaries

[12DrinkMore]

We all love the bankers, don't we?

The UK leaders, I would guess living under various threats from the "too big to fail" lot, are not going to do anything at all.

http://www.telegraph...on-bankers.html

"It would, in my view, be the utmost folly to create a climate in this country which was anything other than sympathetic to the financial services industry."

Hey Heseltine (thought you were dead), how about creating a climate sympathetic to the manufacturing industry?????

[Abrak]

We all love the bankers, don't we?

The UK leaders, I would guess living under various threats from the "too big to fail" lot, are not going to do anything at all.

http://www.telegraph...on-bankers.html

"It would, in my view, be the utmost folly to create a climate in this country which was anything other than sympathetic to the financial services industry."

Hey Heseltine (thought you were dead), how about creating a climate sympathetic to the manufacturing industry?????

No 12Drinkmore,

That phrase is so out of line you cannot provide an alternative unless it is something along the lines of....

'By definition we should create a climate in this country that is unsympathetic to bankers'

You see I used to be a banker and I have to say I did enjoy but that was not the reason I became a banker...

Actually if any sentient person looks around the people they know, and looks for the incredibly stupid people who are still making loads of money, they will find 'bankers' or 'investment bankers'. This actually annoys a lot of people who think that bankers are stupid when in fact many are incredibly smart. In fact even stupid bankers know that it is even more stupid to be a teacher just because you are more intelligent.

In fact people do not know that bankers by the rule that they are screwing everybody it goes like this 'we are paid an enormous amount because you are charged a lot, and you are charged a lot because we are paid an enormous amount'. What that says is that if you think that bankers are paid a lot of money because they 'add value' while they 'know' that if they were paid on the basis 'of the value the added' you are far more inherently stupid than they are.

Quite frankly, I have no idea what Heseltine is actually talking about but I am extremely confident that he is being paid large sums of money to say such things. It reminds me of a banker who said to me that 'things have got so bad in Ireland we have had to move our team to London.' No shit Shirlock.

[mania]

http://jsmineset.com/2011/01/14/jims-mailbox-622/

Analyst Richard B reviews the bank closing by the FDIC, the overvaluation, and the huge loss guarantees given to those that take over the busted institution.

Dear CIGAs,

The FDIC ended 2010 by closing 11 more banks between November 12, 2010, and December 17, 2010. That brought to 157 the total number of banks closed during 2010.

To put this in perspective, a total of 323 banks have been closed since late 2007. Three were closed in 2007, 11 in 2008, 140 in 2009 and 157 in 2010.

Collectively, these last 11 banks closed in 2010 had declared assets of $2.56 billion and deposits of $2.26 billion. The FDIC’s estimated cost of closing all 11 banks was $580 million, about 26% of deposits. The FDIC’s estimated losses for all of 2010 totalled $22.2 billion.

Loss Share and More Loss Share

In 9 out of 11 cases, resolution of the failures was accomplished by way of the FDIC entering into loss share agreements covering a high percentage of the assets taken over by the successor banks. In connection with these 11 closings, the FDIC entered into new loss-share agreements covering an additional $1.72 billion in assets.

That brings the total face value of assets covered by FDIC loss share agreements up to about $190.74 billion as of the end of 2010. During 2010, the FDIC increased the total value of assets under loss share by at least $69 billion.

Failures Continue to Show Dramatic Overvaluations

These last 11 failures of 2010 continue to evidence the extent to which management of the failed banks exaggerated the value of the banks’ assets. Viewed as a whole, the 11 banks had declared asset values of $2.56 billion and deposits of $2.26 billion. The FDIC estimated the closings cost 580 million, meaning the banks’ assets were really only worth $1.68 billion. Overall, bank management overvalued assets by $880 million, around 52%.

In two cases, the degree of asset overvaluation was particularly heinous, even judging by recent standards. In both these examples, management overstated the value of the banks’ assets by more than 100%.

Paramount Bank of Farmington Hills, Michigan, had stated assets of $252.7 million and deposits of $213.6 million. The FDIC estimated its closing cost $90.2 million. Based on that estimate, the bank’s assets were really only worth $123.4 million, and had been overvalued by 105%.

United Americas Bank, National Association, of Atlanta, Georgia, had stated assets of $242.3 million and deposits of $193.8 million. The FDIC estimated its closing cost $75.8 million. Based on that estimate, the bank’s assets were really only worth $118 million, and had been overvalued by 105%.

None of the executives responsible for overstating the value of these assets are being criminally prosecuted. There was barely any mention of these outrageous failures in the popular media.

There could be no greater testament to the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”)’s having turned banks’ financial statements into running jokes. The FASB has freed bank executives to place outrageously high values on banks’ worst, least liquid assets, with impunity.

Banks Being Closed Still A Drop In The Bucket

Finally, in spite of the fact that the FDIC closed more banks in 2010 than in any other year of this crisis, it is clear its backlog of troubled banks is growing. In its third quarter report released late November 2010, the FDIC indicated the number of institutions on its “Problem List” grew to 860 from 829 in the prior quarter.

Each month, dozens of new banks come under the most serious Federal Reserve and FDIC enforcement orders, placing their solvency seriously in doubt. Meanwhile, less than a dozen of the terminally ill are put out of their misery.

This leads to examples like Gulf State Community Bank of Carrabelle, Florida, whose failure was announced on November 19, 2010. The declared value of its assets ($112.1 million) actually ended up being less than the amount of its deposits ($112.2 billion), even though those assets were overvalued by at least 62%. Gulf State’s failure cost the FDIC an estimated $42.7 million, 38% of deposits.

This failure to deal with the problem in a timely and effective manner is Management of Perspective Economics, plain and simple. The problem is not going away; it is getting worse. Believing otherwise could be extremely hazardous to your financial health.

Respectfully yours,

CIGA Richard B

[ronz28]

Wikileaks Gets Tons Of Data On Millionaires Who Evade Taxes Using Offshore Accounts

http://www.businessinsider.com/rudolf-elmer-wikileaks-2011-1?sailthru_m=h2n

[12DrinkMore]

In fact people do not know that bankers by the rule that they are screwing everybody it goes like this 'we are paid an enormous amount because you are charged a lot, and you are charged a lot because we are paid an enormous amount'. What that says is that if you think that bankers are paid a lot of money because they 'add value' while they 'know' that if they were paid on the basis 'of the value the added' you are far more inherently stupid than they are.

Hi Abrak, I had to read that a few times....

Bankers do not provide any added value whatsoever. They only create additional added costs.

Quite frankly, I have no idea what Heseltine is actually talking about but I am extremely confident that he is being paid large sums of money to say such things. It reminds me of a banker who said to me that 'things have got so bad in Ireland we have had to move our team to London.' No shit Shirlock.

In other words they sucked Ireland dry leaving nothing but huge un-repayable debts? Edited January 17, 2011 by 12DrinkMore

[12DrinkMore]

Well, what is this?

Official projections suggest trillions of dollars in budget surpluses over the next 15 years, boosted by a strong economy and strict controls on spending.

Can this be the US of A?

The government surplus means that it needs to sell fewer bonds to the public.It is going to reduce the number of times it sells 30-year Treasury bonds, from three times a year to twice a year.

Yes, indeed the US of A.

But all in the past, I'm afraid. What a massive hole has been dug in just a decade.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/411973.stm

[12DrinkMore]

Anybody think that Bankers should get their bonuses?

http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-what-we-now-know-about-goldmans-connection-to-the-fed-2010-12

'tis no wonder then that Ben "the blanket" Bernanke refused to say where the dosh was going. I wonder how much the 100,000,000,000 greenbacks worth of MBS's are worth today? Marking that lot to market would have dented GS's bonus pot if they were still carrying all that toxic stuff. Ben will surely be amply rewarded by God, sorry Blankfein, after he leaves the fed.,

[ronz28]

Next....Egypt??

http://www.markit.com/assets/en/docs/commentary/markit-intraday-alert/2011/Intraday170111.pdf

[12DrinkMore]

What are the Irish up to?

http://www.telegraph...ency-loans.html

"This is a horror story: it shows the cataclysmic condition of the Irish banking system," said Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. "The banks have borrowed €183bn in total, or 110pc of Irish GDP. They have burned through all their capital and a lot of their deposits as well. This is going to end up on the national debt".

And it goes on

The actions of the Irish central bank are authorised by Frankfurt, but fall into a grey area of monetary policy since they appear to involve creation of money outside the normal control of the ECB's governing council.

If the Greeks get to hear about this, then things might deteriorate very quickly. Athens could start issuing EUR's to pay off the debt.

oh begorra!

[ronz28]

Big stink bomb soon to be tossed. Dylan Ratigan on the pending Wikileaks disclosure of secret bank accounts of US politicians, celebrities and companies.

[Naam]

secret bank accounts

exist in Hollywood movies and novels, but not in reality. a former disgruntled employee of Banking Group Julius Baer has handed over a list of bank accounts to Assange.