Financial Crisis

[Naam]

can't help it. did not see any crisis yesterday nor do i see one today. everywhere business as usual, fiat money not replaced by gold, politicians bullshitting citizens, insurgents killed by drone strike, Dyler Turd bullshitting doom&gloomers as usual (i assume), Pope still against condoms, €UR not [yet] abolished, holier than thou nations still trying to bomb the living out of Muammar, marinated black olives not [yet] for sale against Drachmas in Athens, markets in Asia all green, al-Qaeda considering IPO launch in Kabul, markets in Europe expected to be green...

summary:

[midas]

can't help it. did not see any crisis yesterday nor do i see one today. everywhere business as usual, fiat money not replaced by gold, politicians bullshitting citizens, insurgents killed by drone strike, Dyler Turd bullshitting doom&gloomers as usual (i assume), Pope still against condoms, €UR not [yet] abolished, holier than thou nations still trying to bomb the living out of Muammar, marinated black olives not [yet] for sale against Drachmas in Athens, markets in Asia all green, al-Qaeda considering IPO launch in Kabul, markets in Europe expected to be green...

summary:

ah i am glad you mentioned that one

[Naam]

ah i am glad you mentioned that one

at first glance i see three men who are dead and one who is about to die

[craigt3365]

ah i am glad you mentioned that one

at first glance i see three men who are dead and one who is about to die

:cheesy:

One of the wackiest things I've seen in some time.

[midas]

ah i am glad you mentioned that one

at first glance i see three men who are dead and one who is about to die

:cheesy:

One of the wackiest things I've seen in some time.

oh no …..IMHO it is far more whacky that they are using a picture of President of the Greatest Nation on Earth

to promote the UK conference

Edited June 30, 2011 by midas

[12DrinkMore]

I simply find it remarkable that on the same day we have

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsvideo/uk-politics-video/8607953/Public-sector-strikes-are-wrong-and-unjustifiable.html

The UK public sector is moaning and complaining about their pensions. This is not going to meet with any sympathy from the private sector, who will be taxed into poverty paying for the bastards.

And who the <deleted> was that at the end, some idiot called Milibrand, Labour Party what not, oh dear, oh dear, the best leaders the UK can drag out of the woodwork are the "schoolboys" and MIlibrand. It is now time to get rid of my last few GBP's, there is no future for the UK, no inspirational leader, nobody to look up to. This is the first time I have seen Milibrand speak. I am not impressed, not impressed at all.

I am now embarrassed to admit I was born in the UK.

and then we have the Chinese

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8607781/China-opens-worlds-longest-sea-bridge.html?utm_source=tmg&utm_medium=TD_8607781&utm_campaign=video3006pm

The marathon-length Qingdao Haiwan Bridge would easily span the English Channel and is almost three miles longer than the previous record-holder, the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway in the American state of Louisiana.The vast structure links the centre of the booming port city of Qingdao in eastern China's Shandong Province with the suburb of Huangdao, spanning the wide blue waters of Jiaozhou Bay.

The bridge is expected to carry over 30,000 cars a day and will cut the commute between the city of Qingdao and the sprawling suburb of Huangdao by between 20 and 30 minutes.

The sheer scale of the bridge reveals further recent advances made by Chinese engineering.

China is already home to seven of the world's 10 lengthiest bridges, including the world's longest, the 102-mile Danyang-Kunshan rail bridge, which runs over land and water near Shanghai.

Technological advances in the East and retards in the UK just about sums it up.

[12DrinkMore]

Indonesia and City Bank thugs

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-29/citigroup-collides-with-death-in-indonesia-emerging-market-debt.html

[cloudhopper]

Interesting Jim Grant interview

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/71723212/

[Abrak]

Well I would like to complain that there is no crisis - maybe death by a thousand cuts.

I believe that we are all owed a decent crisis so that life and investing could become more interesting again

[Naam]

Well I would like to complain that there is no crisis - maybe death by a thousand cuts.

I believe that we are all owed a decent crisis so that life and investing could become more interesting again

seconded! the concerned parties only talk, talk, talk but don't act not even the encouragements of the resident doom&gloomers (or is it gloom&doomers?) have an effect

Edited July 1, 2011 by Naam

[midas]

And who the <deleted> was that at the end, some idiot called Milibrand, Labour Party what not, oh dear, oh dear, the best leaders the UK can drag out of the woodwork are the "schoolboys" and MIlibrand. It is now time to get rid of my last few GBP's, there is no future for the UK, no inspirational leader, nobody to look up to. This is the first time I have seen Milibrand speak. I am not impressed, not impressed at all.

No actually 12D this portrayal of him is quite bizarre. Count how many times he says exactly the same thing in this interview and this has gone viral on the Internet. Sometimes this kind of behaviour can mean there is an underlying neurological problem so I don't think it's anything to laugh about personally. But it is sad as you say that this is how the opposition party is being judged around the world.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZtVm8wtyFI&feature=player_embedded

[churchill]

Global 'train wreck' coming

'The global economy is facing ''a slow-motion train wreck'' with Greece only the first nation to be hit, Australia's Reserve Bank director Warwick McKibbin says.

Referring to the most recent global economic crisis as a mere ''blip'', he said the coming crisis could undo Australia's mining boom and bring on inflation of the kind not seen since the 1970s.

Professor McKibbin told the Melbourne Institute conference dozens of European countries now had gross government debts on track to exceed 60 per cent of GDP. ''Japan is forecast to be 200 per cent of GDP, the US is forecast to be over 100 per cent of GDP,'' he said.

''At zero interest rates that can be sustained, but at 5 per cent interest rates countries have to put aside 5 per cent of their GDP every year just to service the debt. That is not sustainable.

''Already consumers aren't spending and investors aren't spending because of the tax increases that are in prospect.

''Greece, Portugal and Ireland don't just need to have their debts written off, they need to have a 30 per cent to 40 per cent depreciation of their real exchange rate,'' he told the conference.

''There are two ways to do that, either pull out of the euro and depreciate by 40 per cent, or have deflation of 40 per cent over the next 12 months.

''I do not believe any society can survive having a 40 per cent deflation that's been imposed by the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank.''

As the US created more dollars to inflate away its debt repayment obligations, countries that are linked to the dollar, including China, India and parts of Latin America, would suffer 1970s-style inflation.

''In India inflation is 9 per cent, in China it is 6 per cent. That inflation is pushing up resource prices for now, but it will have to be brought under control with much higher interest rates,'' he said.'

....http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/5218159/Global-train-wreck-coming

[12DrinkMore]

No actually 12D this portrayal of him is quite bizarre. Count how many times he says exactly the same thing in this interview and this has gone viral on the Internet. Sometimes this kind of behaviour can mean there is an underlying neurological problem so I don't think it's anything to laugh about personally. But it is sad as you say that this is how the opposition party is being judged around the world.

http://www.youtube.c...player_embedded

I didn't believe that when I watched it. Shurely shome editting has been done? But NO! It's on the BBC website.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-13971770

WOW! He's the humanised version of a scratched LP, maybe the presenter should have kicked him into the next sentence?

The existence of a neurological problem is probably a pre-requisite to being a political leader.

[cloudhopper]

Global 'train wreck' coming

''I do not believe any society can survive having a 40 per cent deflation that's been imposed by the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank.''

That's why there's a global train wreck coming, with or without central bank fueled inflation bail outs making the inevitable crash much worse. Deflation will be imposed by mathematics not central bank policy. The bankers and their politicians can only affect when and how bad.

Edited July 2, 2011 by cloudhopper

[12DrinkMore]

Here's a green shoot.

http://www.telegraph...f-playtime.html

Miss Hackitt said the "gloves are off" and her organisation would target officials or employers who wrongly used health and safety to stop everyday activities."In many cases, the people behind these unreasonable rulings are well-meaning but misguided jobsworths. They may have the public interest at heart but they simply make the wrong call," she said.

"But a trend of far more concern to me is the use of health and safety as a convenient excuse by employers and other organisations cynically looking for a way to disguise their real motives."

The Department for Education cut its guidance on health and safety for schools from 150 pages to eight.

She said: "Health and safety has surely become one of the most well-worn and dispiriting phrases in the English language. From news reports to TV dramas, it has become convenient shorthand for someone, somewhere, stopping someone from doing something they want to.

May not be a financial green shoot, but its a big step in getting the Nanny State out of the way and making people once again responsible for their own lives and actions.

Carry on Hackitt

[midas]

I am now embarrassed to admit I was born in the UK.

12D you will either laugh or cry when you read about this family in the Uk- them versus small-time local government bureaucrats.

While so many investment gurus like Marc Faber and trend forecasters like Gerald Celente are advising people to simply buy their own land and grow their own food apparently this idea does not sit well so with some UK bureaucrats.

A COUPLE living an "off-grid" lifestyle say they face prison unless they move from their own land in Willand and return to an existence in the benefits trap.

http://www.thisisdevon.co.uk/Injunction-end-month/story-12812676-detail/story.html

Edited July 2, 2011 by midas

[12DrinkMore]

Global 'train wreck' coming

''I do not believe any society can survive having a 40 per cent deflation that's been imposed by the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank.''

That's why there's a global train wreck coming, with or without central bank fueled inflation bail outs making the inevitable crash much worse. Deflation will be imposed by mathematics not central bank policy. The bankers and their politicians can only affect when and how bad.

The bloody Greeks have ramped up their living standards by over 40% on the back of low interest Euros for a decade. Surely they can now go back to where they were before they launched themselves with the aid of Goldman into the fantasy land of Borrow and Spend? The party for these guys is over and its now the big Hangover.

They just need to make the slight attitude readjustment and accept that a higher living standard has to be earned through productive work, if you want a decent infrastructure you have to pay taxes, and if you want a pension you have to save.

[cloudhopper]

The bloody Greeks have ramped up their living standards by over 40% on the back of low interest Euros for a decade. Surely they can now go back to where they were before they launched themselves with the aid of Goldman into the fantasy land of Borrow and Spend? The party for these guys is over and its now the big Hangover.

They just need to make the slight attitude readjustment and accept that a higher living standard has to be earned through productive work, if you want a decent infrastructure you have to pay taxes, and if you want a pension you have to save.

We Americans have ramped up our living standards (including public and private pension schemes) on the back of post-WW2 imperialism and then on the back of post-Nixon credit expansion. Everyone will be going back until production = spending. It's not going to be a slight adjustment for most.

[craigt3365]

Global 'train wreck' coming

''I do not believe any society can survive having a 40 per cent deflation that's been imposed by the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank.''

That's why there's a global train wreck coming, with or without central bank fueled inflation bail outs making the inevitable crash much worse. Deflation will be imposed by mathematics not central bank policy. The bankers and their politicians can only affect when and how bad.

The bloody Greeks have ramped up their living standards by over 40% on the back of low interest Euros for a decade. Surely they can now go back to where they were before they launched themselves with the aid of Goldman into the fantasy land of Borrow and Spend? The party for these guys is over and its now the big Hangover.

They just need to make the slight attitude readjustment and accept that a higher living standard has to be earned through productive work, if you want a decent infrastructure you have to pay taxes, and if you want a pension you have to save.

Unfortunately, the poorer citizens in Greece will pay the price for this. And the ones who created the mess will get off scot free.

Interesting article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/02/business/02markets.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=globasasa24

Optimism Pushes Dow to Best Week in 2 Years

The rally started Monday after Nike reported strong quarterly results. Revenue that beat analysts’ predictions indicated that shoppers were still splurging on more expensive sneakers and sportswear, despite the recent run-up in gas prices. On Thursday, Greece cleared its final hurdle before it receives its next round of loans to avoid defaulting on its debt. The same day, a report showed that manufacturing in the Chicago region had picked up unexpectedly.

A report on Friday from the Institute for Supply Management showed that manufacturing across the country had expanded, reinforcing the growing perception that the slowdown was temporary. The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, and a number of prominent economists have argued that the economy will pick up again once the effects of the Japan disaster waned and high gas prices recede.

......

A rebound in automobile sales also helped send stock indexes higher on Friday. General Motors and Ford both said their sales rose 10 percent over this time last year. Car companies have been forced to slow the production of some models because of the shortage of parts after the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

......

[12DrinkMore]

12D you will either laugh or cry when you read about this family in the Uk- them versus small-time local government bureaucrats.

While so many investment gurus like Marc Faber and trend forecasters like Gerald Celente are advising people to simply buy their own land and grow their own food apparently this idea does not sit well so with some UK bureaucrats.

"A COUPLE living an "off-grid" lifestyle say they face prison unless they move from their own land in Willand and return to an existence in the benefits trap."

http://www.thisisdev...tail/story.html

I despair.

But its all part of the Big State Plan, "Off Gridders" are not simply allowed. How on earth can you plan an economy if the peeps are doing their own thing and taking care of themselves. Jeeze, they might have strange ideas about why they are paying taxes?

They did not have a "sound enough business plan." Ridiculous coming from a State Jobsworth, how on earth is a Jobsworth able to judge what is a sound business plan, when they judge success by raising taxes, increasing department sizes and overspending budgets?

Indeed this is evident from the article

Vegetarians Stig and Dinah claim council officers offered them bed and breakfast accommodation in Cullompton at taxpayers' expense and suggested they live on take aways, which are likely to cost around £20 for each family meal.

B&B for a family of four, at least 80 quid/day, another 40 quid for lunch and dinner, total 120 quid/day say around GBP 43,000/year plus other expenses, and doubtless some jobsworth would be employed to look after them; all at the taxpayers' expense.

But they would be "Back on the Grid"

The Jobsworthies are winning.

(The land was pretty cheap, only THB 200,000/Rai. Nothing around here for under a million)

[midas]

Optimism Pushes Dow to Best Week in 2 Years

The rally started Monday after Nike reported strong quarterly results. Revenue that beat analysts’ predictions indicated that shoppers were still splurging on more expensive sneakers and sportswear, despite the recent run-up in gas prices. On Thursday, Greece cleared its final hurdle before it receives its next round of loans to avoid defaulting on its debt. The same day, a report showed that manufacturing in the Chicago region had picked up unexpectedly.

A report on Friday from the Institute for Supply Management showed that manufacturing across the country had expanded, reinforcing the growing perception that the slowdown was temporary. The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, and a number of prominent economists have argued that the economy will pick up again once the effects of the Japan disaster waned and high gas prices recede.

......

A rebound in automobile sales also helped send stock indexes higher on Friday. General Motors and Ford both said their sales rose 10 percent over this time last year. Car companies have been forced to slow the production of some models because of the shortage of parts after the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

some might agree with this...but others............

[12DrinkMore]

Unfortunately, the poorer citizens in Greece will pay the price for this. And the ones who created the mess will get off scot free.

But better kept localised rather than globalised, eh?

Interesting article:

http://www.nytimes.c...emc=globasasa24

Optimism Pushes Dow to Best Week in 2 Years

The rally started Monday after Nike reported strong quarterly results. Revenue that beat analysts' predictions indicated that shoppers were still splurging on more expensive sneakers and sportswear, despite the recent run-up in gas prices. On Thursday, Greece cleared its final hurdle before it receives its next round of loans to avoid defaulting on its debt. The same day, a report showed that manufacturing in the Chicago region had picked up unexpectedly.

A report on Friday from the Institute for Supply Management showed that manufacturing across the country had expanded, reinforcing the growing perception that the slowdown was temporary. The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, and a number of prominent economists have argued that the economy will pick up again once the effects of the Japan disaster waned and high gas prices recede.

......

A rebound in automobile sales also helped send stock indexes higher on Friday. General Motors and Ford both said their sales rose 10 percent over this time last year. Car companies have been forced to slow the production of some models because of the shortage of parts after the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

......

And on the same day, yesterday, the same organisation pushed out this from those silver hounds, JPM.

http://www.ism.ws/fi...anMfg070111.pdf

The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ fell to 52.3 in June, down from 53.0 in May and well below February's near-series record high. The latest reading was the weakest since July 2009, the first month of the current two-year period of recovery. Among the major industrial regions, PMIs signalled slower rates of expansion in the Eurozone, Japan, China and the UK. The US PMI ticked slightly higher from May's 20-month low, but remained well below the highs reached earlier in the year.

Within the euro area, PMIs fell in almost all of the nations for which data are collected. The exception was Greece which, nevertheless, still recorded the steepest rate of contraction. Expansions were seen in Germany, France, Austria and the Netherlands, but rates of increase were among the weakest since the recoveries began in these countries. Italy, Spain and Ireland saw deteriorations in business conditions.

"Clutching at Green Shoots"????

But I do not know what the DOW really represents.

http://stockcharts.c...l/djia1900.html

According to that chart everything has been up up and up since 1982, over thirteen times, in fact, amazing performance. Can it possibly continue?

Maybe its time for a one of these?

http://www.forecast-...nikkei-225.html

If it wasn't for the FED Put providing helium for the bubbles, that's probably where we'd be.

[12DrinkMore]

Must have too much time on my hands today.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/gloomy-future-looms-as-manufacturing-hits-a-dip-2305646.html

A sharp slowdown in domestic and export demand has pushed business sentiment in the manufacturing sector to its lowest level since the recession's depths in September 2009

Back down to the lowest level of the recession? Which way from here?

Services comprise some 70 per cent of GDP; manufacturing only about 12 per cent

The once great manufacturing Goliath, the UK, is down to just 12% making actual stuff and the majority of 70% is this amorphous "services" sector.

Oh dear, oh dear.

[cloudhopper]

What the next 4.3 years has in store according to cycle charter Martin Armstrong:

http://www.10sigma.com/files/Borrowing%20from%20the%20Rich%2006-30-2011.pdf

[cloudhopper]

Services comprise some 70 per cent of GDP; manufacturing only about 12 per cent

The once great manufacturing Goliath, the UK, is down to just 12% making actual stuff and the majority of 70% is this amorphous "services" sector.

Oh dear, oh dear.

The numbers in the States are just as dismal. A good bit of those many "services" that sprang up in the good times are already beginning to disappear. Printing money can't stop it and governments can't stop it.

[midas]

What the next 4.3 years has in store according to cycle charter Martin Armstrong:

http://www.10sigma.com/files/Borrowing%20from%20the%20Rich%2006-30-2011.pdf

" This is a battle between the investment bankers and the people. The debts have to be devalued or we will be looking a massive civil unrest by 2016. It is time to make a choice. It is them against us! Stop taking advice from the banking Primary Dealers for they have a vested interest in bankrupting society for their gain! Julius Caesar understood this. Are we just brain-dead?"

I honestly cannot see them being able to hold off on civil unrest until 2016 if they take away the food stamps from 40 million people

[midas]

This thread is by no means over.

Erm…………I think I would personally even back that assessment with money 12D

talk about déjà vu

" The JP Morgan forensic preview is now available. Remember, this is not subscription material, but a "public preview" of the material to come.

When considering the staggering level of derivatives employed by JPM, it is frightening to even consider the fact that the quality of JPM's derivative exposure is even worse than Bear Stearns and Lehman‘s derivative portfolio just prior to their fall. Total net derivative exposure rated below BBB and below for JP Morgan currently stands at 35.4% while the same stood at 17.0% for Bear Stearns (February 2008) and 9.2% for Lehman (May 2008). We all know what happened to Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, don't we??? I warned all about Bear Stearns (Is this the Breaking of the Bear?: On Sunday, 27 January 2008) and Lehman ("Is Lehman really a lemming in disguise?": On February 20th, 2008) months before their collapse by taking a close, unbiased look at their balance sheet. Both of these companies were rated investment grade at the time, just like "you know who".

http://boombustblog.com/BoomBustBlog/An-Independent-Look-into-JP-Morgan.html

Accordingly, it sure is a good thing that the world’s biggest derivatives player - J.P. Morgan - has “seemingly” NEVER, EVER made a bet even “1 % wrong” with their 80 Trillion derivatives book. The Morgue has a Market Cap of roughly $180 billion. A wrong bet of a mere 1% on their ‘book’ would translate to a loss of $800 billion dollars eviscerating their entire capital base more than four times over. The knock on effect from such an event would trigger multiple tsunamis reverberating through the global financial system. Sounds absurd, but it’s pure math.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1309532700.php

Edited July 2, 2011 by midas

[flying]

What the next 4.3 years has in store according to cycle charter Martin Armstrong:

http://www.10sigma.com/files/Borrowing%20from%20the%20Rich%2006-30-2011.pdf

" This is a battle between the investment bankers and the people. The debts have to be devalued or we will be looking a massive civil unrest by 2016. It is time to make a choice. It is them against us! Stop taking advice from the banking Primary Dealers for they have a vested interest in bankrupting society for their gain! Julius Caesar understood this. Are we just brain-dead?"

I honestly cannot see them being able to hold off on civil unrest until 2016 if they take away the food stamps from 40 million people

I follow a couple of cycle types as I find their writings interesting.

More than one has mentioned 2016 as the high point for gold. So it does coincide with the above.

As always just something interesting to wonder about

[Naam]

Martin Armstrong

[midas]

Martin Armstrong

but if Martin Armstrong is right just think we have 4 more years of this thread