Financial Crisis

[flying]

As always Zobama spoke live on TV & the markets doubled their tanking efforts.

Lack of confidence could not be any clearer.

It was like watching his campaign speeches once again.

Dont worry about credit downgrades America will always be AAA

Dont worry jobs are coming

Dont worry that as I speak the DOW drops another 300 points

Is Obama really Bobby McFerrin?

[swisstouristpattaya]

well he is right, nothing worst than sheep jumping from the cliff.

tuesday time to buy!!!!

[cloudhopper]

As always Zobama spoke live on TV & the markets doubled their tanking efforts.

Lack of confidence could not be any clearer.

It was like watching his campaign speeches once again.

Dont worry about credit downgrades America will always be AAA

Dont worry jobs are coming

Dont worry that as I speak the DOW drops another 300 points

Off Mish's blog -

"

Dow Finishes Down 634 Points. Obama’s speech certainly did nothing to slow the drop, though I suppose the White House will argue that it would have been 734 without the speech, meaning that Obama saved or created 100 Dow points . . . .

"

[Naam]

the carnage continues in Asia. chok dee!

[Naam]

well he is right, nothing worst than sheep jumping from the cliff.

tuesday time to buy!!!!

go ahead! there is a saying "bravery is lack of imagination"

[flying]

the carnage continues in Asia. chok dee!

Yes very much so & have you seen the DJIA futures?

Looks like at this rate the recession/depression/collapse what ever they are now calling it is about to go global

[flying]

well he is right, nothing worst than sheep jumping from the cliff.

tuesday time to buy!!!!

go ahead! there is a saying "bravery is lack of imagination"

If I were a markets person I would be getting my shorts on

Perhaps still a good bet

[midas]

well he is right, nothing worst than sheep jumping from the cliff.

tuesday time to buy!!!!

go ahead! there is a saying "bravery is lack of imagination"

If I were a markets person I would be getting my shorts on

Perhaps still a good bet

but i remember reading this statement somewhere flying - dont know if you agree ?

" Bear markets are characterised by short sharp rallies "

so you dont know when it could " whipsaw " back even for a short time ?

So swisstourist could be right to some extent....... but not for me . i wouldnt go near the kitchen

[flying]

but not for me . i wouldnt go near the kitchen

Same here but not for fear of getting burned.

Just told myself way back when that I would not feed the beast.

[midas]

but not for me . i wouldnt go near the kitchen

Same here but not for fear of getting burned.

Just told myself way back when that I would not feed the beast.

That's a very good point

but also I don't believe we have seen anything in recent history that compares to size of the problems facing the world right now

in terms of the confluence of so many problems - not just economically but geopolitically and socially as well all at the same time

- the potential " perfect storm" as some people describe it?

So these people that instantly advocate buying equities now just because they appear cheap (er )

to me seem to have an incredible blind faith and to me it's like a similar psychology to those who blindly advocate

spending more to try to cure the debt problems? they seem to be able to block out the reality of what is happening around us?

Maybe it's just a strong gambling instinct in them. Like our friend zorro

[Naam]

the carnage continues in Asia. chok dee!

Yes very much so & have you seen the DJIA futures?

Looks like at this rate the recession/depression/collapse what ever they are now calling it is about to go global

futures look better than i expected. what do you mean by "about to"?

[cloudhopper]

Global is getting real down under - http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/secretly-broke-in-australia.html

[flying]

what do you mean by "about to"?

I stand corrected

Global is getting real down under - http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/secretly-broke-in-australia.html

Here I thought down under was doing quite well....till now

[flying]

That's a very good point

but also I don't believe we have seen anything in recent history that compares to size of the problems facing the world right now

in terms of the confluence of so many problems - not just economically but geopolitically and socially as well all at the same time

- the potential " perfect storm" as some people describe it?

So these people that instantly advocate buying equities now just because they appear cheap (er )

to me seem to have an incredible blind faith and to me it's like a similar psychology to those who blindly advocate

spending more to try to cure the debt problems? they seem to be able to block out the reality of what is happening around us?

Maybe it's just a strong gambling instinct in them. Like our friend zorro

Does make one wonder where it is all headed....Folks have the added 2012 deal to ponder too

True though that this time more will jump in sooner thinking back to the last time & how it recovered.

But look at what it took in the way of the FED throwing trillions at it.

The banks got trillions & obviously did not loan it to the real economy.

Instead they went right back to the casino.

QE-3 in a theater near you shortly I'm sure

[Naam]

what do you mean by "about to"?

I stand corrected

Global is getting real down under - http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/secretly-broke-in-australia.html

Here I thought down under was doing quite well....till now

Down-Under-Dollar (aka AUD) lost more than double its annual yield in less than 10 trading days vs. CHF, double its annual yield vs. USD, GBP and EUR. same same applies to Kiwi-Dollar (aka NZD).

hopefully that serves as a reminder to keep currencies in short maturities with lower yields but enabling action if need be (which i have been preaching repeatedly).

[midas]

Global is getting real down under - http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/secretly-broke-in-australia.html

Cloudhopper I hate to think of the potential consequences on the Australian commercial property market but this was bound to happen.

I could write a book about the extent of fraudulent practices that were going on in the office building market in Australia even during the 1980s and 1990s.

Just as an example, say a big multi floor tenant in an office building agreed to pay a rent of $ 1000 per square metre ( actually a few big legal firms did end up paying this ) on say six or eight year lease. In reality then they would have to be offered say a 50% rent-free period from the landlord to bring it more in line with true level of market rent but with strict confidentiality provisions in the contract so that third parties would never get to hear about the 50% rent-free period. In the actual contract the $1000 was described as being a “ face rent “ example but of course a sixth grade economics student could understand this could never represent the actual market rent without taking into account the very substantial discount of the rent-free period as well. And yet time and time again you would find a whole list of directions in lease contracts that would instruct real estate valuers to treat the $1000 as being market rent for capitalisation purposes never mind about how artificial this may have been. I can tell you this went on on a very wide scale indeed in all the major Australian capital cities involving central business district high-rise office buildings. A ticking timebomb to say the least and the danger from all of this is that huge superannuation and pension funds are very heavily invested in these high-rise buildings.

[cloudhopper]

I could write a book about the extent of fraudulent practices that were going on in the office building market in Australia even during the 1980s and 1990s.

That does seem to be a common theme across the entire FIRE segment in every part of the world, not to mention the various governments themselves increasingly integrating themselves into said practices. I'm rather happy they at least haven't perfected alchemy yet...

[flying]

Hang Seng looking like it needs a transfusion

[midas]

That's a very good point

but also I don't believe we have seen anything in recent history that compares to size of the problems facing the world right now

in terms of the confluence of so many problems - not just economically but geopolitically and socially as well all at the same time

- the potential " perfect storm" as some people describe it?

So these people that instantly advocate buying equities now just because they appear cheap (er )

to me seem to have an incredible blind faith and to me it's like a similar psychology to those who blindly advocate

spending more to try to cure the debt problems? they seem to be able to block out the reality of what is happening around us?

Maybe it's just a strong gambling instinct in them. Like our friend zorro

Does make one wonder where it is all headed....Folks have the added 2012 deal to ponder too

True though that this time more will jump in sooner thinking back to the last time & how it recovered.

But look at what it took in the way of the FED throwing trillions at it.

The banks got trillions & obviously did not loan it to the real economy.

Instead they went right back to the casino.

QE-3 in a theater near you shortly I'm sure

Well if they do jump back in again without remembering the huge differences between now and then that you refer to

I can only think of that well known saying " Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me"

[cloudhopper]

Here's another result to ponder in light of all the TARP, QE 1&2, POMO 24/7 etc. that's put the (remaining) taxpayers way deeper in hock. But hey after correcting the stats for "jobs that otherwise would not have been created and/or saved" it will all be good. First time I've seen this on MSM.

http://money.cnn.com...x.htm?hpt=hp_t2

Edited August 9, 2011 by cloudhopper

[midas]

12 D this brief footage from the riots over the past few days really does make me sad about my country of birth as no doubt

it will be for you also.they have become totally heartless. I could never even imagine living there today

The footage and commentary will tell you everything

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYuMPw6Yi3k&feature=player_embedded#at=59

[12DrinkMore]

12 D this brief footage from the riots over the past few days really does make me sad about my country of birth as no doubt

it will be for you also.they have become totally heartless. I could never even imagine living there today

The footage and commentary will tell you everything

Never going back to that place again, no holidays, no visits.

The word "respect" no longer exists in the UK. Neither upwards, respect for authority, nor downwards from those in power nor sideways among peer groups.

Edited August 9, 2011 by 12DrinkMore

[flying]

FED announced here today to leave rates unchanged & also exceptionally pow through 2013

[manarak]

what do you mean by "about to"?

I stand corrected

Global is getting real down under - http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/secretly-broke-in-australia.html

Here I thought down under was doing quite well....till now

Down-Under-Dollar (aka AUD) lost more than double its annual yield in less than 10 trading days vs. CHF, double its annual yield vs. USD, GBP and EUR. same same applies to Kiwi-Dollar (aka NZD).

hopefully that serves as a reminder to keep currencies in short maturities with lower yields but enabling action if need be (which i have been preaching repeatedly).

Regarding the USD, EUR and GBP... well, I told you so.

About the Australian housing crisis:

What effect is that going to have on the AUD vs. EUR, USD?

What are AUD interest rates going to do?

Regarding the CHF, I am still holding it, but I have the feeling that it's rise has now taken unnatural proportions. At some point, the CHF will be unhealthily high and bound to give way. When? I don't know, but we are nearly at 1 EUR = 1 CHF and 1 CHF = over 40 THB.

And the Swiss economy will be hit hard by the EURO crisis.

So, what are the thoughts on the CHF?

What solutions are there for investors wanting to stay liquid and who want at the same time to earn acceptable interest?

[flying]

FED announced here today to leave rates unchanged & also exceptionally pow through 2013

EDIT: Ooops exceptionally LOW not pow

[fletchsmile]

Have to say, this all looks like a good buying opportunity to me on some western markets. I normally consider myself a mid to long term investor these days when it comes to equities.

I put on a couple of trades though today - something I haven't done in ages. (Defining trade as short term in contrast to longer term investing intentions). UK blue chips, nice looking P/E s and generous dividend yields compared to cash yields. Recent weeks' corrections plus low yields on cash made it difficult to resist taking a punt

Can't say the Thai market looks attractive enough for similar short term trading punts at the moment though. But mid-long term, I remain much more bullish on Thailand's equity markets than most western markets:)

Edited August 9, 2011 by fletchsmile

[Naam]

Regarding the CHF, I am still holding it, but I have the feeling that it's rise has now taken unnatural proportions. At some point, the CHF will be unhealthily high and bound to give way. When?

Regarding the CHF, I am still holding it, but I have the feeling that it's rise has now taken unnatural proportions. At some point, the CHF will be unhealthily high and bound to give way. When? I don't know, but we are nearly at 1 EUR = 1 CHF and 1 CHF = over 40 THB. And the Swiss economy will be hit hard by the EURO crisis.

So, what are the thoughts on the CHF?

some of my friends went short CHFEUR @ 1.35, 1.25, 1.20, 1.10 and every time they were bleeding. yesterday at 20.20 hrs CET the rate was 1.0095 and then recovered to 1.03xx.

Manarak,

i agree with your "...bound to give way" but i'm not selling one single "Fränkli" as long i don't see some light at the end of the €U-ClubMed bailout tunnel.

[Naam]

looking forward how "Quantitatrichet €asing" will affect markets

[cloudhopper]

Interesting essay on the nature of capital, its cost and use.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/must-read-ubs-andy-lees-why-us-economy-doomed-if-nothing-changes

[midas]

hey Flying this sounds like your idea !

Moody's Warns Student Loans May Be The Next Financial Bubble To Burst

WHY DONT AMERICAN STUDENTS AND THE REST OF THE YOUNGER GENERATION SIMPLY "STARVE" THE GOVERNMENT FROM ITS TAX REVENUES AND STUDENT LOANS INTEREST?

CAN 10 MILLION AMERICAN STUDENTS BE JAILED?

...NO PROTESTS, NO VIOLENCE REQUIRED...

http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/2011/08/moodys-warns-student-loans-may-be-next.html