Financial Crisis

[samuibeachcomber]

I have asked the same questions you have just asked,am not sure if anyone really knows the answer,i certainly dont.maybe others more knowledgeable will answer later.

[AlexLah]

I found this extremely funny:

As he headed back home from Washington, Gordon Brown must have rummaged through his party bag with disappointment.

Because all he got was a set of DVDs. Barack Obama, the leader of the world's richest country, gave the Prime Minister a box set of 25 classic American films - a gift about as exciting as a pair of socks.

Edited March 6, 2009 by AlexLah

[midas]

So what are all those gunowners think they are going to do?

Protect themselves against people rioting, looking for food?

Fight the US military incase it get's that far?

Are they going to Wall Street to gun down the bankers?

I really have no idea why these people think owning a gun will protect them incase of some severe crisis.

Or do they think owning a gun will allow them to join some kind of militia?

Just does not make sense.

No Alex - these people would not regard themselves as breaking the law--

they believe they would be defending the law if they needed to take action.

As I interpret things ( and Flying or another US citizen can correct me

if I am wrong ), many of these people see themselves as upholding the

strict interpretation of the US Constitution

It was written in a way to protect the US people from the actions of a

Federal Government that acted against the interests of the people.

I even read that something 11 individual States have now also warned

Washington about infringing on the authority of the State Governments.

What would be interesting is how the ordinary members of the law enforcement

authorities would make their choice - i.e. would they ultimately take the side of

the ordinary people or their masters at the Pentagon ?

[AlexLah]

I understand the constitutional thinghy but let's say in a year or so inflation get's sky high, food does not reach the stores, millions more without a job

that kind of scenario.

What are those upholders of the constitution with guns gonna do?

Go to congress and drag out the members of congress?

Surround the white house?

Build a fence around their state and guard it?

People are willing to fight when there is an enemy, where and who are the enemy's?

The US is not exactly invaded occupied by foreign soldiers right?

I can only imagine that people buy guns to protect themselves against looters (LA 90s) and burglars. If those that want to strictly follow the constitution are really fed up as they should be and say they are, why is there just a small group of people on the street protesting peacefully?

[midas]

I understand the constitutional thinghy but let's say in a year or so inflation get's sky high, food does not reach the stores, millions more without a job

that kind of scenario.

What are those upholders of the constitution with guns gonna do?

Go to congress and drag out the members of congress?

Surround the white house?

Build a fence around their state and guard it?

People are willing to fight when there is an enemy, where and who are the enemy's?

The US is not exactly invaded occupied by foreign soldiers right?

I can only imagine that people buy guns to protect themselves against looters (LA 90s) and burglars. If those that want to strictly follow the constitution are really fed up as they should be and say they are, why is there just a small group of people on the street protesting peacefully?

People to watching these events more closely in USA are saying it wouldn't happen like that.

These weapons will be held quietly and discreetly by people many of whom live in

rural communities and on the surface the subtle changes may not even be so apparent.

But if things start to unwind, some of these small communities will become

much more protective and territorial and will be very suspicious of " outsiders ".

Some of these communities will probably feel they can organise themselves

to become self-sufficient effectively and will really just want to be left alone.

If action was taken it would be much more defensive than offensive. People just want to protect their property.

The " enemy " might be easier to define eventually if these various tax strike

lobbyists become more powerful which then needs more

" aggressive " tax revenue collection.

by those that need the money.

[thaihome]

Ha ha ha!

I have seen something similair, the ten worst financial disasters, starts with some oil spill costing a few hundred millions, then Exxon Valdez a few Billions and on the number one place Prince Obama, 850 Billion in just a few weeks, ha ha ha.

Here a nice chart that will show something very interesting.

Nice, finished my first cold one, getting a second...

I’m curious as to what you think this graph says?

It is actually a very good graph showing how long the biggest drops in the Dow/S&P happened after it reached a peak. Though it does show that the 1929 crash of about 50% went on for almost 4 more years ending at about an 89% drop. What it doesn’t show is what happened to the other 2 drops. The fact is each of them recovered and made even higher highs within 2 years.

Who knows what this one will do?

Personally, I like this graph to put it all in persepective.

TH

[flying]

Yes Midas your understanding is correct afaik

Folks here are quietly going about the business at hand.

We all hope for the best but also prepare for the worst. You explanation of

much more protective and territorial and will be very suspicious of " outsiders "

Is very much like many here see it. Also it is how LA saw it during the riots. Many areas actually blocked off their streets with cars during that time.

Lastly your statement that many citizens here see it as you describe as WE THE PEOPLE

We are the ones who will uphold our constitution if need be. We will enforce the 10th amendment

Many collect & arm now in the hopes of not having to act against our own. But in the end they are OUR OWN...

OUR GOVERNMENT Not the other way around.

We fully expect that they have no intent to try something so foolish as to infringe any further on our rights to arm ourselves. We know they will in fact try to beat everyone down by taxation on things like ammunition.

Which is why so many stock pile now or reload their own ammo. But they perhaps do not realize that act alone could be enough at this point to break the camels back.

Just because the people have no answer or alternative to governments failing ways does not mean they will continue with it. Anarchy is sometimes the only answer left.

I like most hope for the best.

[brahmburgers]

No Alex - these people would not regard themselves as breaking the law--

they believe they would be defending the law if they needed to take action.

As I interpret things ( and Flying or another US citizen can correct me

if I am wrong ), many of these people see themselves as upholding the

strict interpretation of the US Constitution

It was written in a way to protect the US people from the actions of a

Federal Government that acted against the interests of the people.

I even read that something 11 individual States have now also warned

Washington about infringing on the authority of the State Governments.

What would be interesting is how the ordinary members of the law enforcement

authorities would make their choice - i.e. would they ultimately take the side of

the ordinary people or their masters at the Pentagon ?

I don't agree. The 2nd ammendment to the US constitution has been shanghaied by many Americans to delude them in to thinking that guns rule - and anyone can have as many and as powerful guns as they can afford to buy. The 2nd amendment was put forth at a time when America was militarily vulnerable. There were threats from Britain (and others) and the US didn't have a strong militia. When it came time to go far and wide to round up militiamen (minutemen) they needed able fighters quickly. A lot of the minutemen were farmers and regular guys who didn't know much about shooting a rifle - so it was thought that if they already owned a firearm, they'd be quickly ready to go to the US's defense (less training time, and perhaps even less rifles needing to be issued).

I know die-hard gun owners will disagree, but that's how it's been presented to me, and it makes sense.

The framers of that ammendment couldn't foresee ghettos bristling with automatic weapons, and white supremists holed up in Wyoming with bazookas and RPG's.

'

[flying]

I know die-hard gun owners will disagree, but that's how it's been presented to me, and it makes sense.

Your right I disagree

In 1929, the Soviet Union established gun control.

From 1929 to 1953, about 20 million dissidents,

unable to defend themselves, were rounded up and exterminated.

------------------------------

In 1911, Turkey established gun control.

From 1915 to 1917, 1.5 million Armenians, unable to defend themselves,

were rounded up and exterminated.

---------------------------

Germany established gun control in 1938 and from 1939 to 1945,

a total of 13 million Jews and others who were unable to defend

themselves were rounded up and exterminated .

------------------------------

China established gun control in 1935. From 1948 to 1952,

some 20 million political dissidents, unable to defend themselves,

were rounded up and exterminated.

----------------------------

Guatemala established gun control in 1964. From 1964 to 1981,

some 100,000 Mayan Indians, unable to defend themselves,

were rounded up and exterminated.

------------------------------

Uganda established gun control in 1970. From 1971 to 1979,

300,000 Christians, unable to defend themselves,

were rounded up and exterminated.

------------------------------

Cambodia established gun control in 1956. From 1975 to 1977,

one million 'educated' people, unable to defend themselves,

were rounded up and exterminated.

-----------------------------

Defenseless people rounded up

and exterminated in the 20th Century because of gun control : 56 million.

------------------------------

It has now been 12 months since gun owners in Australia were forced

by new law to surrender 640,381 personal firearms to be destroyed

by their own government, a program costing Australia taxpayers

more than $500 million dollars. The first year results are now in:

Australia-wide, homicides are up 3.2 percent

Australia-wide, assaults are up 8.6 percent

Australia-wide, armed robberies are up 44 percent (yes, 44 percent)!

In the state of Victoria alone, homicides with firearms are now up 300 percent.

Note that while the law-abiding citizens turned them in, the criminals did not,

and criminals still possess their guns!

It will never happen here? I bet the Aussies said that too!

While figures over the previous 25 years showed a steady decrease in armed robbery

with firearms, this has changed drastically upward in the past 12 months,

since criminals now are guaranteed that their prey is unarmed.

There has also been a dramatic increase in break-ins and assaults of the ELDERLY.

Australian politicians are at a loss to explain how public safety has decreased,

after such monumental effort and expense was expended in successfully ridding

Australian society of guns. The Australian experience and the other historical facts

above prove it.

You won't see this data on the US evening news, or hear politicians disseminating

this information.

With Guns.............We Are 'Citizens'.

Without Them........We Are 'Subjects'..

During WW II..

The Japanese decided not to invade America because they knew most Americans

were ARMED !

Note:

Admiral Yamamoto who crafted the attack on Pearl Harbor had attended

Harvard U 1919-1921 & was Naval Attache to the. U.S.. 1925-28.

Most of our Navy was

destroyed at Pearl Harbor & our Army had been deprived

of funding & was ill prepared to defend the country.

It was reported that when asked why Japan did not follow up the Pearl Harbor

attack with an invasion of the U.S. Mainland, his reply was that he had lived

in the U.S. & knew that almost all households had guns.

[midas]

We are the ones who will uphold our constitution if need be. We will enforce the 10th amendment

Many collect & arm now in the hopes of not having to act against our own. But in the end they are OUR OWN...

OUR GOVERNMENT Not the other way around.

We fully expect that they have no intent to try something so foolish as to infringe any further on our rights to arm ourselves. We know they will in fact try to beat everyone down by taxation on things like ammunition.

The most volatile places I would have thought would be all along the border with Mexico.

You can see even now that it wouldn't take much for U.S. citizens to get

angry with the authorities. Take those two border patrol guards in Arizona who shot an illegal alien

and were were convicted and imprisoned? <deleted>

How can you be a law-enforcement officer doing your job and then end up as a convicted

criminal yourself- it's beyond bizzare. And those kinds of actions will just stir the pot further.

[colibra]

Midas I agree just don't want to be messed with. If things really fall apart there might be land taxes that go unpaid and collectors around looking to forclose etc.

As far as not getting sucked in with the rest. Good luck.. Everyone will be affected. A rural life style will probably afford you a better life style as you can grow some of your own food, but then you have to protect it. Another problem.

Best would probably be to lay low untill all the crazies have shot it out. Maybe a month or two. Can you survive that long without the grocery store. Do you have enought water for even a week. Things to think about. I hope it doesn't come to this but in these times One never knows.

I have read threads on this forum by some well off individuals that think it won't affect them. Think again. Its not called wealth redistribution for nothing.

Share your riches with the poor before they share there poverty with you. Mr rich man.

[midas]

I don't agree. The 2nd ammendment to the US constitution has been shanghaied by many Americans to delude them in to thinking that guns rule - and anyone can have as many and as powerful guns as they can afford to buy. The 2nd amendment was put forth at a time when America was militarily vulnerable. There were threats from Britain (and others) and the US didn't have a strong militia. When it came time to go far and wide to round up militiamen (minutemen) they needed able fighters quickly. A lot of the minutemen were farmers and regular guys who didn't know much about shooting a rifle - so it was thought that if they already owned a firearm, they'd be quickly ready to go to the US's defense (less training time, and perhaps even less rifles needing to be issued).

I know die-hard gun owners will disagree, but that's how it's been presented to me, and it makes sense.

The framers of that ammendment couldn't foresee ghettos bristling with automatic weapons, and white supremists holed up in Wyoming with bazookas and RPG's.

'

But brahmburgers doesn't it say something about having the right to defend " against tyrrany "?

And why would it be wrong to interpret " against tyrrany " as including the Federal Government

if it was thought they were making irrational decisions which could amount to this ?

[sabaijai]

Original topic going nowhere, tangents on gun control, little relevance to Thailand. It's tempting to close this thread but as long as we leave gun control, killing, advocating violence, etc out of the discussion it will stay open.

[samuibeachcomber]

ok good news,thanks.If i remember correctly the topic began,as a financial crisis brewing that would have an effect on every nation in the world,and naturally how it might affect us farang living here in thailand,and the updates and links showing us all what was happening out there.

[midas]

Not only AIG in USA ..........it is now spreading through the UK institutions........

Aviva leads plunge in insurance shares on capital fears

UK's biggest insurer sees its stock drop by a third after holding annual dividend

Shares in Britain's biggest insurer lost a third of their value and hit an all-time low, leading big falls across the financial sector. Legal & General, which has also been beset by worries about its capital position, fell 29 per cent.

Fears about the financial sector have spread from banks to insurers. Investors are increasingly scared that tumbling share prices and rising corporate defaults will weaken capital buffers, forcing the sector to raise new equity in the market.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business...rs-1638636.html

[AlexLah]

Please ,please please SBJ, We just go a bit sideways sometimes and isn't it great we can conceal this Global crisis in one historical thread that will be filled with peoples thoughts and experiences during this financial armageddon? I bet this will be recommended reading 20 years from now.

Ok back on track at least a litlle bit as we need to look at history as well so I pulled a few charts.

The first shows our last decade of DJ performance. 2 mini crashes of about a 30% loss. 1st took 5 years to recover 2nd about 2 years.

Both mini crashes had a short duration and picked up within a year thanks to bublles created.

This (almost last decade) lowest point of crash 2 has been reached again after just 6 years.

The downward trend (controlled crash) has been going on for the last 1.5 year and no end in sight yet (more then 50% down already.

The 2nd shows the famous 1929 crash, again you can see a quick decline and it took about 2 years things where moving up again.

But it took 20 years to recover from it!

3rd chart shows what event really helped getting a good up trend that started around 1942 WW2.

So the question is what magic bullet is there after we finally hit the bottom (DJ 3000-4000) to get an upward trend back?

- IT bublle, nope already had

- Housing bublle, nope already done.

- ????

[samuibeachcomber]

can only think of one thing,and thats a war,gets theindustrial machine working again.auto industries turn to manufacturing vehicles,armaments industry,add to that food production,container ships filling up again etc.

[lannarebirth]

can only think of one thing,and thats a war,gets theindustrial machine working again.auto industries turn to manufacturing vehicles,armaments industry,add to that food production,container ships filling up again etc.

I doubt that very much. Globalized economy now, don't you know? Who shall America go to war with? China, the low cost provider of it's products? Mexico, the ow cost provider of its labor? Europe, one of its chief trading partners and home to vast number of subsidiary compamies of American conglomerates? Actually same applies to all. Everyone has got their economic hooks deep into each other. There won't be any war. Economic warfare maybe, but that appears to have already started with traitorous elements within our own ranks.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=a.OzozJQwrjQ

Edited March 6, 2009 by lannarebirth

[samuibeachcomber]

can only think of one thing,and thats a war,gets theindustrial machine working again.auto industries turn to manufacturing vehicles,armaments industry,add to that food production,container ships filling up again etc.

I doubt that very much. Globalized economy now, don't you know? Who shall America go to war with? China, the low cost provider of it's products? Mexico, the ow cost provider of its labor? Europe, one of its chief trading partners and home to vast number of subsidiary compamies of American conglomerates? Actually same applies to all. Everyone has got their economic hooks deep into each other. There won't be any war. Economic warfare maybe, but that appears to have already started with traitoous elements within our own ranks.

I was thinking of pakistan/afghanistan full throttle,even military support for israel,but i think the former,only way to get the economy going again,just a thought.

[lannarebirth]

can only think of one thing,and thats a war,gets theindustrial machine working again.auto industries turn to manufacturing vehicles,armaments industry,add to that food production,container ships filling up again etc.

I doubt that very much. Globalized economy now, don't you know? Who shall America go to war with? China, the low cost provider of it's products? Mexico, the ow cost provider of its labor? Europe, one of its chief trading partners and home to vast number of subsidiary compamies of American conglomerates? Actually same applies to all. Everyone has got their economic hooks deep into each other. There won't be any war. Economic warfare maybe, but that appears to have already started with traitoous elements within our own ranks.

I was thinking of pakistan/afghanistan full throttle,even military support for israel,but i think the former,only way to get the economy going again,just a thought.

It's a drop in the ocean. I predict military budgets are more likey to get cut if anything. Anyhow, its veering off topic again.

[AlexLah]

Now what alternatives are there to stop the trend, this stimulus package only adds more debt. The higher debt creates a higher anount of interest to be payed.

Prince Obama says, I will cut the taxes for the working midlle and low class (peasants) and get a bit more from the rich (drops in the ocean).

And he says at the end of his first term deficit will be half of the coming 1.8 Trillion.

The UK is propping how much was it 1.2 Trillion in the banks right? And GB saying start the presses we are going to buy bonds, lot's of them.

The EU has also propped a few hundred Billion in the sick patients and nothing is happening at least nothing positive.

I dunno about you guys but I do not see a solution being in the make here, only a prolongation and worsening of this situation.

Country's need to produce goods that can be sold either in the own country and/or other.

Hopefully they sell more then they buy so they can pay off debt.

But with so many jobs being lost worldwide there is less spending, less tax payments and so on.

So what's it gonna be boy? (Meatloaf)

[AlexLah]

How about the following.

Rampant inflation strikes most developed country's, unemployed rate at 30-40%, food is scarce, ghost towns, part of towns controlled by gangs (with guns)

police and military guard sensitive area's of towns. Financial system is on the verge of total collapse, pension funds vaporised, bonds defaulted, all stockmarkets worldwide down 80% from peak.

World leaders propose 3-4 world currencies and revalue against their old. One central institute to control these currencies.

How likely do you think such scenario is?

Let's see this as a worst case scenario, maybe later we can paint a more positive picture if we can find information that points to that.

[lannarebirth]

How about the following.

Rampant inflation strikes most developed country's, unemployed rate at 30-40%, food is scarce, ghost towns, part of towns controlled by gangs (with guns)

police and military guard sensitive area's of towns. Financial system is on the verge of total collapse, pension funds vaporised, bonds defaulted, all stockmarkets worldwide down 80% from peak.

World leaders propose 3-4 world currencies and revalue against their old. One central institute to control these currencies.

How likely do you think such scenario is?

Let's see this as a worst case scenario, maybe later we can paint a more positive picture if we can find information that points to that.

[samuibeachcomber]

yes i saw those pics,taken i think in sacremento.well if there is n't going to be any wars to fix the machine,then it looks like each country is going to have its own graveyard to control.just dont see it getting better.throw in a few natural disasters,famines ,riots etc,better enjoy now while going is good.

always remember a verse in an old beatles song "happiness is a warm gun bang shoot shoot" double entendre!

[brahmburgers]

pardon being off topic, but WAR is a concern. There are several potential flashpoints:

India vs Pakistan

China vs Taiwan

Iran vs western alliance countries

N.Korea vs western alliance countries and possibly Japan

......yes, global economic interactions/interdependence increase year by year, but that in itself won't stop wars from happening - if other factors loom. Any war that gets big enough will suck in the Americans (and probably also the Brits and the EU) - even if it's not instigated by the US or European. Russia is a sort of 'wild card' - as are Middle Eastern countries - in the potential big war equation.

[AlexLah]

Just read in the WSJ that the FDIC is going to borrow 500 Billion USD, their credit limit has always been around 30 Billion.

They expect something?

Have you read about that flu vaccine contaminated with H5N being send to a few countrys by Baxter (US company)?

And that NZ based hedge fund that gained more than 200% last year and is now betting that inflation will occur.

Very strange.........

Edited March 6, 2009 by AlexLah

[samuibeachcomber]

Just read in the WSJ that the FDIC is going to borrow 500 Billion USD, their credit limit has always been around 30 Billion.

They expect something?

Have you read about that flu vaccine contaminated with H5N being send to a few countrys by Baxter (US company)?

And that NZ based hedge fund that gained more than 200% last year and is now betting that inflation will occur.

Very strange.........

do you mean borrow from the fed.reserve more printing press notes? NZ hedge fund,what were they hedging on.............more sheep.

[AlexLah]

No they where betting on those defaults to happen. I am watching the AIG hearings and the chairman is saying that AIG effectively is a bankrupt company.

And that most of the money went to counterparty's but they do not say who. I smell a big piece of stinky rotten fish here.

[samuibeachcomber]

am sure you are right,whats happening now we've never seen anything like it before.

[AlexLah]

I am going to buy a few beers, then I am gonna try and decipher something I found and ask for your opinions.

BRB