Financial Crisis

[midas]

Gerald Celente is the the type of fruitcake who appears as a guest on fruitcake presenter Glenn Beck's show.

Which he does.

well there are a lot more famous names on his website than you who say the opposite

and over in the other thread you said you " love income " ? Gerald Celente has been earning

a decent income doing this job since 1980 and if he was no good at it I don't think

he would have survived this long?look at the list of his clients on this page

go on be honest....... you don't like him because he is another goldbug

http://www.trendsres...com/speaker.php

oh and as for the fruitcake presenter ..........even if he is he's a bloody rich one

Glenn Beck is an American conservative radio and television host, author, entrepreneur, and political commentator; he has a net worth of $105 million.

I don't think you would be worth that kind of money yoshiwara otherwise you would have far better things to do

than try to enlighten us with your thoughts in so many threads

Edited September 4, 2012 by midas

[yoshiwara]

Gerald Celente is the the type of fruitcake who appears as a guest on fruitcake presenter Glenn Beck's show.

Which he does.

well there are a lot more famous names on his website than you who say the opposite

and over in the other thread you said you " love income " ? Gerald Celente has been earning

a decent income doing this job since 1980 and if he was no good at it I don't think

he would have survived this long?look at the list of with clients on this page

http://www.trendsres...com/speaker.php

oh and as for the fruitcake presenter ..........even if he is he's a bloody rich one?

Glenn Beck is an American conservative radio and television host, author, entrepreneur, and political commentator; he has a net worth of $105 million.

I don't think you would be worth that kind of money yoshiwara otherwise you would have far better things to do

than try to enlighten us with your thoughts in so many threads

With that crass logic maybe we should also consult David Beckham.

Edited September 4, 2012 by yoshiwara

[Naam]

Sounds a bit like Obama pandering to the lowest common denominator to get re-elected.

Can you say "socialism" with a capital S.

please read again what i posted.

[yoshiwara]

With equity markets taking a bit of a pasting this week, I think it is worthwhile keeping an eye on blue chip dividend stocks and watch that dividend ROI slowly rise.

At some point the dividend return makes compelling viewing as a longer term investment. IMHO.

[manarak]

With equity markets taking a bit of a pasting this week, I think it is worthwhile keeping an eye on blue chip dividend stocks and watch that dividend ROI slowly rise.

At some point the dividend return makes compelling viewing as a longer term investment. IMHO.

Agree.

What would currently be good stocks with high dividend yield?

Edited September 5, 2012 by manarak

[yoshiwara]

With equity markets taking a bit of a pasting this week, I think it is worthwhile keeping an eye on blue chip dividend stocks and watch that dividend ROI slowly rise.

At some point the dividend return makes compelling viewing as a longer term investment. IMHO.

Agree.

What would currently be good stocks with high dividend yield?

Shell and AstraZenica decent yields.

[Naam]

With equity markets taking a bit of a pasting this week, I think it is worthwhile keeping an eye on blue chip dividend stocks and watch that dividend ROI slowly rise.

At some point the dividend return makes compelling viewing as a longer term investment. IMHO.

Agree.

What would currently be good stocks with high dividend yield?

for the sake of diversification i am since quite some time tempted to buy the top of the line blue chips listed below. but when i think of the 35% Swiss, the 30% U.S. and the 25% (soon most probably 30 or 35%) German withholding tax on dividends then...

Nestlé (CHF) food&beverages

Philip Morris (USD) tobacco

Diageo (GBP) spirits

ABInbev (EUR) beer

Colgate (USD) toothpaste

Coca-Cola (USD) soft drinks

Accenture (USD) consulting

Western Union (USD) money transfer

United Technologies (USD) aerospace

Fresenius (EUR) dialysis

McDonald's (USD) restaurant

Pearson (GBP) education

Biomérieux (EUR) diagnostics

Unilever (EUR) ice cream, etc.

[topt]

With equity markets taking a bit of a pasting this week, I think it is worthwhile keeping an eye on blue chip dividend stocks and watch that dividend ROI slowly rise.

At some point the dividend return makes compelling viewing as a longer term investment. IMHO.

Agree.

What would currently be good stocks with high dividend yield?

for the sake of diversification i am since quite some time tempted to buy the top of the line blue chips listed below. but when i think of the 35% Swiss, the 30% U.S. and the 25% (soon most probably 30 or 35%) German withholding tax on dividends then...

Nestlé (CHF) food&beverages

Philip Morris (USD) tobacco

Diageo (GBP) spirits

ABInbev (EUR) beer

Colgate (USD) toothpaste

Coca-Cola (USD) soft drinks

Accenture (USD) consulting

Western Union (USD) money transfer

United Technologies (USD) aerospace

Fresenius (EUR) dialysis

McDonald's (USD) restaurant

Pearson (GBP) education

Biomérieux (EUR) diagnostics

Unilever (EUR) ice cream, etc.

Naam please correct me if wrong but for the US if you complete a W8-BEN isn't the withholding tax avoided?

Also there are quite a few more UK listed blue chips paying good dividends (at the moment ) although it depends on your selection criteria and the retained tax on those I believe is only 10%?.

[Naam]

Naam please correct me if wrong but for the US if you complete a W8-BEN isn't the withholding tax avoided?

Also there are quite a few more UK listed blue chips paying good dividends (at the moment ) although it depends on your selection criteria and the retained tax on those I believe is only 10%?.

for reasons unknown to me W8-BEN works only on interest generated by bonds but not on corporate dividends. but that information is years old, not sure whether still applicable.

you are right, UK's 10% withholding tax is acceptable.

[yoshiwara]

Also BA (British A

With equity markets taking a bit of a pasting this week, I think it is worthwhile keeping an eye on blue chip dividend stocks and watch that dividend ROI slowly rise.

At some point the dividend return makes compelling viewing as a longer term investment. IMHO.

Agree.

What would currently be good stocks with high dividend yield?

Shell and AstraZenica decent yields.

Also British Aerospace (BA.) if you don't mind flogging tanks and other armoury.

All of the above have their associated risks but the dividend story has been robust to date.

Edited September 6, 2012 by yoshiwara

[Naam]

fixed interest markets on fire.

[manarak]

fixed interest markets on fire.

Can you elaborate on what's happening with fixed income?

P.S.

I really think we should make thread about current investment strategies, wider than just gold or FX.

[Naam]

I really think we should make thread about current investment strategies, wider than just gold or FX

i don't think there is any interest. i mentioned fixed income (HY) many times, never got a serious response. in 2009 i posted samples with relevant graphs that proved it was not rocket science to make 300-500% profit in a matter of months i received either "blank stares" or ridiculous comments from gold aficionados (even nowadays) such as "all your fiat paper will be toilet paper any time from now."

[cheeryble]

Naam please correct me if wrong but for the US if you complete a W8-BEN isn't the withholding tax avoided?

Also there are quite a few more UK listed blue chips paying good dividends (at the moment ) although it depends on your selection criteria and the retained tax on those I believe is only 10%?.

for reasons unknown to me W8-BEN works only on interest generated by bonds but not on corporate dividends. but that information is years old, not sure whether still applicable.

you are right, UK's 10% withholding tax is acceptable.

Believe half of any 30% withholding is retrievable....but yes a hassle.

How does it work with owning through tracking ETFs?

Don't they avoid a lot of "friction" by being domiciled in Ireland etc?

What might the best ETF be, and is it"s "friction" a better alternative to self-owning?

Cheeryble

[Naam]

Believe half of any 30% withholding is retrievable....but yes a hassle.

not in my case as all assets are held in a combination of trust/corporation in a jurisdiction which has not signed a double tax agreement with the U.S. (that was the case some years ago).

i have to do a bit more research as i am holding (and trade frequently) a T1 emission of a German financial institution, classified as bond in Germany, but liable for withholding tax if the emitting "daughter company" was not domiciled in the U.S. where it is classified as "preference shares". suprisingly i get since three years my coupons paid without any deduction.

Edited September 9, 2012 by Naam

[Naam]

How does it work with owning through tracking ETFs?

Don't they avoid a lot of "friction" by being domiciled in Ireland etc?

What might the best ETF be, and is it"s "friction" a better alternative to self-owning?

i have no experience and therefore no idea as far as ETFs are concerned.

[Naam]

here's a price graph of the asset i mentioned before. the beauty of quite a number of fixed income assets (most of them subordinated) is that you can trade using price fluctuations or just hold, lean back and clip fat double-digit or near double-digit coupons. in crisis times that yield shot up to >40% and even at today's average "lean" yields it's 9% p.a. payable quarterly.

of course, and as already mentioned, yields and profits are paid out in "worthless fiat money", id est several hundred percent profit is not worthwhile to mention

[mccw]

here's a price graph of the asset i mentioned before. the beauty of quite a number of fixed income assets (most of them subordinated) is that you can trade using price fluctuations or just hold, lean back and clip fat double-digit or near double-digit coupons. in crisis times that yield shot up to >40% and even at today's average "lean" yields it's 9% p.a. payable quarterly.

of course, and as already mentioned, yields and profits are paid out in "worthless fiat money", id est several hundred percent profit is not worthwhile to mention

Please go on. I am very interested but have absolutely 0 knowledge of what your talking about.

[Naam]

I am very interested but have absolutely 0 knowledge of what your talking about.

as there are two more similar requests i am copying and pasting my answer to a PM i received today.

Hi Naam,

I know that high yields are not offered without risk, but hey I've owned REITS with mid-teens payouts before. So I'm presuming most of your profits come from the trades

most profit comes from clipping coupons. i can trade only in crisis times but even small crises are moving HY/High Risk bonds plus/minus 5% or more. i have never really discerned between capital gains and regular income. it's all worthless anyway

nevertheless as one of the six people in the Thaivisa universe who are willing to accept great yields on loathsome paper money

you will regret that bitterly when the shop keeper will reject your paper money and asks for nuggets and Krüger Rands!

can you point me to, and even better explain, this fixed income holding?

the specific sample i mentioned is just one of my assets although i hold a few more of the same category as well as other risky assets (only bonds!) but of different structure.

what IS the risk balancing the 9%?

simple explanations... basic risk is that it is "subordinated" debt, meaning the company/bank does not make profit you don't get paid for that fiscal year.

now, even subordinated debt is divided in risk categories. some of the debt issued carries the attribute "cumulative", meaning if the debtor does not show a profitable balance sheet, does not pay agreed interest/dividend he must pay all arrears accumulated once profits are made again.

more differentiation:

-subordinated debt can be issued as "perpetual" bonds (principal never to be paid back) and timewise limited where the principle must be paid back except in cases of bankruptcy and dissolution of the debtor entity.

there are more minor differences but listing for starters they might only confuse.

BTW Naam what IS the risk balancing the 9%? (see it's with Comdirect is it in Euros... which BTW I'll also happily accept despite their complete worthlessness)

my personal risk balancing is done by holding "ample" cash or triple A rated short term debt such as UST and Bunds. of course i am well aware that EUR and USD are doomed and UST as well as Bunds are worthless colourful printed paper. the zero interest on short term AAA debt is compensated by fat yields which the risky assets provide.

subordinated debt is available in a number of currencies. most liquid of course is debt denominated in USD, EUR and GBP. if you want to diversify and invest in e.g. CHF or SGD the choice is very limited and the yields are considerably lower but still quite interesting.

examples are:

-Royal Bank of Scotland, LT2 (cumulative and a "must pay" at maturity), currency CHF, current yield 8.68%

-Genting Singapore (Sentosa casino), LT1, perpetual (no maturity), cumulative, currency SGD, yield 5.20%

questions? shoot! i will post a part of this in the thread "financial crisis" of course without your name. reason i have two more PMs to answer and it was also suggested to open a dedicated thread.

p.s. of course i don't hold only subordinated debt. i also hold and trade "plain vanilla" bonds, some of them yield 12 and 16%.

[midas]

the crisis is over in Australia

Enthusiastic buyers yesterday signed up for $1.9 million one-bedroom apartments at the launch of the highly anticipated Pacific Bondi Beach.Having paid $10,000 to secure their appointment, buyers starting queuing in the sunshine yesterday from 7.30am for the 8am timeslot, at which they signed contracts

and

There were also 35 square-metre studios for $575,000.

that is more than

17 million baht

http://smh.domain.co...0909-25lrq.html

Edited September 9, 2012 by midas

[topt]

I am very interested but have absolutely 0 knowledge of what your talking about.

as there are two more similar requests i am copying and pasting my answer to a PM i received today.

Hi Naam,

I know that high yields are not offered without risk, but hey I've owned REITS with mid-teens payouts before. So I'm presuming most of your profits come from the trades

most profit comes from clipping coupons. i can trade only in crisis times but even small crises are moving HY/High Risk bonds plus/minus 5% or more. i have never really discerned between capital gains and regular income. it's all worthless anyway

nevertheless as one of the six people in the Thaivisa universe who are willing to accept great yields on loathsome paper money

you will regret that bitterly when the shop keeper will reject your paper money and asks for nuggets and Krüger Rands!

can you point me to, and even better explain, this fixed income holding?

the specific sample i mentioned is just one of my assets although i hold a few more of the same category as well as other risky assets (only bonds!) but of different structure.

what IS the risk balancing the 9%?

simple explanations... basic risk is that it is "subordinated" debt, meaning the company/bank does not make profit you don't get paid for that fiscal year.

now, even subordinated debt is divided in risk categories. some of the debt issued carries the attribute "cumulative", meaning if the debtor does not show a profitable balance sheet, does not pay agreed interest/dividend he must pay all arrears accumulated once profits are made again.

more differentiation:

-subordinated debt can be issued as "perpetual" bonds (principal never to be paid back) and timewise limited where the principle must be paid back except in cases of bankruptcy and dissolution of the debtor entity.

there are more minor differences but listing for starters they might only confuse.

BTW Naam what IS the risk balancing the 9%? (see it's with Comdirect is it in Euros... which BTW I'll also happily accept despite their complete worthlessness)

my personal risk balancing is done by holding "ample" cash or triple A rated short term debt such as UST and Bunds. of course i am well aware that EUR and USD are doomed and UST as well as Bunds are worthless colourful printed paper. the zero interest on short term AAA debt is compensated by fat yields which the risky assets provide.

subordinated debt is available in a number of currencies. most liquid of course is debt denominated in USD, EUR and GBP. if you want to diversify and invest in e.g. CHF or SGD the choice is very limited and the yields are considerably lower but still quite interesting.

examples are:

-Royal Bank of Scotland, LT2 (cumulative and a "must pay" at maturity), currency CHF, current yield 8.68%

-Genting Singapore (Sentosa casino), LT1, perpetual (no maturity), cumulative, currency SGD, yield 5.20%

questions? shoot! i will post a part of this in the thread "financial crisis" of course without your name. reason i have two more PMs to answer and it was also suggested to open a dedicated thread.

p.s. of course i don't hold only subordinated debt. i also hold and trade "plain vanilla" bonds, some of them yield 12 and 16%.

Naam can you suggest a good place(s) to start looking at fixed interest instruments yielding 10% plus demoninated in $US - or is that a bit too simplistic?

I am aware of some UK building society and recent UK company bonds but the yields are not as high. This site seems quite useful as a primer re UK fixed income http://www.fixedincomeinvestments.org.uk/ - or am i loking at the wrong thing in relation to what you are talking about?

PS - I am also very happy with worthless paper returns.........

[Naam]

Naam can you suggest a good place(s) to start looking at fixed interest instruments yielding 10% plus demoninated in $US - or is that a bit too simplistic?

I am aware of some UK building society and recent UK company bonds but the yields are not as high. This site seems quite useful as a primer re UK fixed income http://www.fixedinco...stments.org.uk/ - or am i loking at the wrong thing in relation to what you are talking about?

PS - I am also very happy with worthless paper returns.........

for searching i am using the proprietary websites of my banks which are not accessible by non-clients. free sites do exist but in French, Italian and German. have to find one where English can be selected.

the link you provided has a sublink (see below) which is very good because one can see details at a glance and (very important) provides access to the emission prospectus although it's a pain in the àss to go through pages and pages of legal lingo.

http://www.fixedinco...cks-spreadsheet

the only flaw i can see that it contains only British debtors and debt denominated in GBP. for starters i'd advise that a newbie familiarises himself with the meaning of the various attributes. i will be happy to explain those for which an explanation is not provided by Google.

[cheeryble]

first Naam thankyou so much for offering your advice here!

I for one, though I'm fairly financial-savvy have never got properly acquainted with this area. I shall start reading up a bit and no doubt be full of questions but just for the moment:

http://www.fixedinco...cks-spreadsheet

1.The table in the site above is very informative, though as you note is British debt only.

I see at the bottom left of the spreadsheet HALIFAX is sort of half visible, suggesting this is a scrolling spreadsheet which has many more debtors...however it doesn't scroll. Clear basic Information like this extended globally would be invaluable for getting an overview of this type of FI.

2. I know the bid offer spreads on bonds used to be outrageous, and looking at the bid offer in the spreadsheet it don't look like things have improved. I note the bids and offer are not even available for many of the securities. Is this to do with greed at the brokers or lack of liquidity? The brokers have the temerity to think one should trust them. Huh!

Thanks again

Cheeryble

[Naam]

I know the bid offer spreads on bonds used to be outrageous, and looking at the bid offer in the spreadsheet it don't look like things have improved. I note the bids and offer are not even available for many of the securities.

bid/offer spreads are depending mainly on liquidity and demand. for subordinated and/or HY bonds the difference is usually 1 to 1.5 points, of course exceptions prove the rule. i've never dealt with brokers, do all trades via my banks and can't therefore comment.

[topt]

first Naam thankyou so much for offering your advice here!

I for one, though I'm fairly financial-savvy have never got properly acquainted with this area. I shall start reading up a bit and no doubt be full of questions but just for the moment:

http://www.fixedinco...cks-spreadsheet

1.The table in the site above is very informative, though as you note is British debt only.

I see at the bottom left of the spreadsheet HALIFAX is sort of half visible, suggesting this is a scrolling spreadsheet which has many more debtors...however it doesn't scroll. Clear basic Information like this extended globally would be invaluable for getting an overview of this type of FI.

2. I know the bid offer spreads on bonds used to be outrageous, and looking at the bid offer in the spreadsheet it don't look like things have improved. I note the bids and offer are not even available for many of the securities. Is this to do with greed at the brokers or lack of liquidity? The brokers have the temerity to think one should trust them. Huh!

Thanks again

Cheeryble

if you look at this page from the same site http://www.fixedincomeinvestments.org.uk/buying-fixed-income-secur it talks about the spreads and the difference between pricing on different platforms - which is a bit scary -

"To make matters even more complex some securities are traded on both the London Stock Exchange and the interbank market with the prices available being different between the various exchanges. This is illustrated in the following table which compares the London Stock Exchange quoted prices of several fixed income securities with bond market price indications on the same date:

SECURITY NAME

LSE BID PRICE

LSE OFFER PRICE

BOND MKT BID PRICE

BOND MKT OFFER PRICE

LBG 7.5884% ECN (LB1G)

86

90

87.5

89.5

LBG 16.125% ECN (LB2O)

117

137

130

135

Nationwide 7.971% PIBS (NABA)

94

104

96.5

99.5

CO-OP 5.5555% Sub-Bonds (CPBA)

80

85

80

83

"

Mods apologies if I am not supposed to post this?

[Naam]

I see at the bottom left of the spreadsheet HALIFAX is sort of half visible...

can't see that. what i realised just now is that prices as well as comments are quite outdated. besides that, looking at bid/ask spread of XS0408826427 published on another website the spreads are indeed outrageous (64/70)!

http://www.comdirect...TATION=26965738

[topt]

sorry that did not format to well

[topt]

I see at the bottom left of the spreadsheet HALIFAX is sort of half visible...

can't see that. what i realised just now is that prices as well as comments are quite outdated. besides that, looking at bid/ask spread of XS0408826427 published on another website the spreads are indeed outrageous (64/70)!

http://www.comdirect...TATION=26965738

I cannot even see the table from where I am unfortunately.

Sorry I should have mentioned the dates in my original post but yes a lot of the specific information is not very current which is why i called it a "primer"

[Naam]

the best i can presently offer is a german website which has a search function for bonds based on selected criteria. perhaps a Brit can use it with a little phantasy or google translation?

Rendite pro Jahr (yield p.a.)

Restlaufzeit (maturity from/to)

Währung der Anleihe (currency)

http://www.comdirect...or.html?CLEAR=1

[Naam]

selection of HY USD

http://www.comdirect...MATURITY_MAX=15

selection of HY EUR

http://www.comdirect...MATURITY_MAX=15

selection of HY GBP

http://www.comdirect...NCY_TYPE=ANDERE