Financial Crisis

[Naam]

i have to make a confession NeverSure but... shhhh! please don't tell anybody.

when it concerned real estate i was in 8 out of 10 cases (for various reasons) a poor loser

The problem with real estate is that it isn't liquid. You have to play the long game. You have to be willing to hold it (with an adequate regular return in cash on investment) until it hits another up trend. That could be 20 years.

I don't buy it for appreciation. I buy it for cash flow including income tax savings. That works out to about 10% pa. Then if it appreciates it's a bonus.

i have never bought real estate for income but spent fancy amounts building homes for the Mrs and myself to live in. having said so, i don't regret having made losses or achieved a break-even after a decade. the only rational decision i made nearly seven years ago was to buy a rather big area of top grade agricultural land of which ~30% is leased out providing a very moderate (actually peanuts) income.

tax savings do not apply in our case but another reason why i abhor real estate is that i can't handle it by phone whilst sitting in a comfortable chair looking at two or quite often three screens.

[Naam]

Yet what was truly surprising is that despite the plunge in Chinese holdings, and Japanese holdings which also dropped by $4 billion in December, is that total foreign holdings of US Treasurys increased in December, from $5716.9 billion to 5794.9 billion.

doom is lurking around the corner, the judgment day is near, skies will be falling!

signed:

one of the dozen gloomers who use

the pseudonym Dyler Turd and publish

their assumptions @ Null-Hedge.com

[midas]

UK property leveraged with 75% LTV I'm currently selling to realise capital gains, cash on cash basis, of 50 to 120% in the same period with 10 to 20% pa rental income on top of that.

Maybe not so great as your paper plays but the difference is you risked default and loosing everything; while I would have still had my properties and likely decent income whether another crash came or not.

I'm now decreasing leverage to lower my risks and sure up what I can in bricks and mortar.

Are you still anticipating more big gains in bonds? My (never traded) view is bonds and stocks are at record all time highs and are highly risky investments. Personally, if I were in your shoes I'd be chashing in profits and diversifying.

-the big gains in bonds are over and out, and that for years to come.

-big gains are only possible with attached extremely high default risks.

-all of my profits of the last 5 years have been cashed in and stashed away.

-the 21 bond positions i am holding are spread over 16 industries in 13 countries and 4 continents, one third of the positions are investment grade.

-my views as far as stocks are concerned are well known, i abhor them. should i feel like gambling i'll take a 2 hour flight to Macau or Singapore.

But how can you on the one hand “pity the poor souls who missed several years of substantial profits because they were busy lamenting and fearing that the sky is falling and the markets "popping any day"...............but then in the next breath say “my views as far as stocks are concerned are well known, i abhor them ,should i feel like gambling i'll take a 2 hour flight to Macau or Singapore “

what is wrong if the “ poor souls “ simply abstained from any activity because they already considered they had made enough anyway to enjoy a comfortable life and that in any case all aspects of the financial market

are under the control of corrupt and criminal elements and this essentially makes everything nothing more than a huge gamble with grossly disproportional odds ( and absolutely no real signs of a genuine recovery even after 5 years + ) ?

[Naam]

UK property leveraged with 75% LTV I'm currently selling to realise capital gains, cash on cash basis, of 50 to 120% in the same period with 10 to 20% pa rental income on top of that.

Maybe not so great as your paper plays but the difference is you risked default and loosing everything; while I would have still had my properties and likely decent income whether another crash came or not.

I'm now decreasing leverage to lower my risks and sure up what I can in bricks and mortar.

Are you still anticipating more big gains in bonds? My (never traded) view is bonds and stocks are at record all time highs and are highly risky investments. Personally, if I were in your shoes I'd be chashing in profits and diversifying.

-the big gains in bonds are over and out, and that for years to come.

-big gains are only possible with attached extremely high default risks.

-all of my profits of the last 5 years have been cashed in and stashed away.

-the 21 bond positions i am holding are spread over 16 industries in 13 countries and 4 continents, one third of the positions are investment grade.

-my views as far as stocks are concerned are well known, i abhor them. should i feel like gambling i'll take a 2 hour flight to Macau or Singapore.

But how can you on the one hand “pity the poor souls who missed several years of substantial profits because they were busy lamenting and fearing that the sky is falling and the markets "popping any day"...............but then in the next breath say “my views as far as stocks are concerned are well known, i abhor them ,should i feel like gambling i'll take a 2 hour flight to Macau or Singapore “

what is wrong if the “ poor souls “ simply abstained from any activity because they already considered they had made enough anyway to enjoy a comfortable life and that in any case all aspects of the financial market

are under the control of corrupt and criminal elements and this essentially makes everything nothing more than a huge gamble with grossly disproportional odds ( and absolutely no real signs of a genuine recovery even after 5 years + ) ?

if they have made enough to finance a comfortable life style then the expression "poor" souls does of course not apply. however, i pity them if they keep on lamenting instead of enjoying their comfortable life.

lamenting does not change one iota of the global sh*t that is prevailing. my expression "global sh*t" is not limited to any looming financial danger but includes humans killing each other and humans, especially children, dying of hunger or lack of medical care.

[midas]

UK property leveraged with 75% LTV I'm currently selling to realise capital gains, cash on cash basis, of 50 to 120% in the same period with 10 to 20% pa rental income on top of that.

Maybe not so great as your paper plays but the difference is you risked default and loosing everything; while I would have still had my properties and likely decent income whether another crash came or not.

I'm now decreasing leverage to lower my risks and sure up what I can in bricks and mortar.

Are you still anticipating more big gains in bonds? My (never traded) view is bonds and stocks are at record all time highs and are highly risky investments. Personally, if I were in your shoes I'd be chashing in profits and diversifying.

-the big gains in bonds are over and out, and that for years to come.

-big gains are only possible with attached extremely high default risks.

-all of my profits of the last 5 years have been cashed in and stashed away.

-the 21 bond positions i am holding are spread over 16 industries in 13 countries and 4 continents, one third of the positions are investment grade.

-my views as far as stocks are concerned are well known, i abhor them. should i feel like gambling i'll take a 2 hour flight to Macau or Singapore.

But how can you on the one hand “pity the poor souls who missed several years of substantial profits because they were busy lamenting and fearing that the sky is falling and the markets "popping any day"...............but then in the next breath say “my views as far as stocks are concerned are well known, i abhor them ,should i feel like gambling i'll take a 2 hour flight to Macau or Singapore “

what is wrong if the “ poor souls “ simply abstained from any activity because they already considered they had made enough anyway to enjoy a comfortable life and that in any case all aspects of the financial market

are under the control of corrupt and criminal elements and this essentially makes everything nothing more than a huge gamble with grossly disproportional odds ( and absolutely no real signs of a genuine recovery even after 5 years + ) ?

if they have made enough to finance a comfortable life style then the expression "poor" souls does of course not apply. however, i pity them if they keep on lamenting instead of enjoying their comfortable life.

lamenting does not change one iota of the global sh*t that is prevailing. my expression "global sh*t" is not limited to any looming financial danger but includes humans killing each other and humans, especially children, dying of hunger or lack of medical care.

And what about lamenting over the fact that if as a society we had made a real effort to catch and prosecute

these financial crooks (as they have done in Vietnam) when we found out exactly what they had done (as opposed to the virtually joining in with them in their endeavours ) we may have seen a lot less "global sh*t" ...

[Naam]

And what about lamenting over the fact that if as a society we had made a real effort to catch and prosecute

these financial crooks (as they have done in Vietnam) when we found out exactly what they had done (as opposed to the virtually joining in with them in their endeavours ) we may have seen a lot less "global sh*t" ...

the crooks who were caught in Viet Nam did neither have the appropriate amount of cash nor the necessary connections in Ha Noi's White House and Ministry of Justice. they were also of plain Vietnamese or perhaps Sino-Vietnamese ethnicity without being bona fide members entitled to the protection by their brethren "who can't be named".

[mccw]

From biz insider:

"Tesla’s quest to disrupt a trillion $ car industry offers an adjacent opportunity to disrupt a trillion $ electric utility industry," he wrote in a new note to clients. "If it can be a leader in commercializing battery packs, investors may never look at Tesla the same way again."

If Tesla figures out how to cheaply store green energy, that's a game-changer.

But if Tesla masters the self-driving car, then here comes utopia.

"Beyond the practical benefits, we estimate autonomous cars can contribute $1.3 trillion in annual savings to the US economy alone, with global savings over $5.6 trillion," wrote Jonas. "There will undoubtedly be bumps in the road as well, including the issues of liability, infrastructure, and consumer acceptance. However, none of these issues appears insurmountable."

Jonas' chart suggests we could reach this "utopia" by 2026.

[Naam]

"...we estimate autonomous cars can contribute $1.3 trillion in annual savings to the US economy alone, with global savings over $5.6 trillion," wrote Jonas...

...and then, using his communicator, shouted impatiently "beam me up Scotty. NOW!"

[mccw]

This at the end of a Reuters piece about bombings and shootings in bkk;

""

Thailand announced a slump in trade figures on Tuesday, with the biggest drop in imports in more than four years in January, the political crisis extending its economic toll beyond falling tourism numbers.

Imports fell 15.5 percent in January from a year earlier, the biggest tumble since October 2009. Imports of computers and parts were down 19 percent from a year earlier, auto parts were off 31.8 percent and consumer goods down 5.3 percent. Exports dropped 2 percent.

""

So this would be positive for the balance of trade then?, if exports are not suffering so badly?

[mccw]

This from another app

""

Exports for January dropped 1.98% on January 2013, worth a total of US$17.91 billion, the Ministry of Commerce reported on Tuesday.

Imports were also down 15.50% on the same month last year, worth $20.43 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $2.52 billion, the ministry said in a statement.

The ministry said the trade deficit figure is no cause for concern because imports were largely raw materials to be used in the production of exports in the coming months.

The country’s exports for 2014 are projected to grow by 5% on the back of 3.7% global economic growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund, it added.

""

[midas]

I guess this is the antithesis of doom and gloom and the sky is falling ?

The Social Media Bubble

Stock market traders often love companies that have no earnings whatsoever and instead have a large 'fantasy' component. As long as there are no hard data on earnings, there can be no 'earnings disappointments' either – instead one is free to fantasize all day long what the business might one day make. The sky's the limit.

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=28860

Edited February 26, 2014 by midas

[mccw]

Something more on tesla and alternative tech future :

""Japan's Panasonic and California-based electric-vehicle venture Tesla Motors are in talks to build a $1 billion automotive battery plant in the United States, a report said Wednesday.

The electronic giant is inviting several other Japanese materials makers to join the project, with the aim of lowering manufacturing costs of the lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles, the respected Nikkei daily said, without citing sources.

Batteries currently represent a big chunk of the final cost of an electric car, and slashing prices is key to making the technology more acceptable to consumers.

The new facility, expected to handle everything from processing raw materials to assembly, is intended to go on stream in 2017 and to produce small, lightweight batteries for Tesla and possibly for Toyota Motor and other automakers, the Nikkei said."""

Biz insider app

[mccw]

There is also a piece about autonomous / drone shipping

[mccw]

There is also a piece about autonomous / drone shipping

[SheungWan]

i have to make a confession NeverSure but... shhhh! please don't tell anybody.

when it concerned real estate i was in 8 out of 10 cases (for various reasons) a poor loser

The problem with real estate is that it isn't liquid. You have to play the long game. You have to be willing to hold it (with an adequate regular return in cash on investment) until it hits another up trend. That could be 20 years.

I don't buy it for appreciation. I buy it for cash flow including income tax savings. That works out to about 10% pa. Then if it appreciates it's a bonus.

The buying and selling of property in Hong Kong was very liquid until the government spoiled everybody's fun recently by putting in some additional taxation measures. Liquidity was particularly at its height with the process of 'flipping' and very nice margins were made by some in the good old days.

[midas]

i have to make a confession NeverSure but... shhhh! please don't tell anybody.

when it concerned real estate i was in 8 out of 10 cases (for various reasons) a poor loser

The problem with real estate is that it isn't liquid. You have to play the long game. You have to be willing to hold it (with an adequate regular return in cash on investment) until it hits another up trend. That could be 20 years.

I don't buy it for appreciation. I buy it for cash flow including income tax savings. That works out to about 10% pa. Then if it appreciates it's a bonus.

The buying and selling of property in Hong Kong was very liquid until the government spoiled everybody's fun recently by putting in some additional taxation measures. Liquidity was particularly at its height with the process of 'flipping' and very nice margins were made by some in the good old days.

I have never understood the attraction of the Hong Kong property market - horribly polluted and overcrowded. Nicer to make a cool $1 million a year profit property trading in the far more aesthetically pleasing suburb of Point Piper in Sydney overlooking the CLEAN harbour

http://www.northqueenslandregister.com.au/news/metro/national/general/33m-sale-of-point-piper-mansion-is-sydneys-third-highest-price-ever/2655088.aspx

[mccw]

From sky news app:

"""

Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) has reported a loss of £8.2bn - its biggest since the year it was bailed out by the taxpayer - and announced plans to help restore customer trust.

The loss for 2013 included its previously-announced provisions for mistakes of the past, which continue to haunt RBS and the rest of the UK banking industry in the wake of the financial crisis.

""""

Where do these losses get funded from? How long can such continue with out fresh gov support?

£8billion isn't exactly chump change.

[SheungWan]

i have to make a confession NeverSure but... shhhh! please don't tell anybody.

when it concerned real estate i was in 8 out of 10 cases (for various reasons) a poor loser

The problem with real estate is that it isn't liquid. You have to play the long game. You have to be willing to hold it (with an adequate regular return in cash on investment) until it hits another up trend. That could be 20 years.

I don't buy it for appreciation. I buy it for cash flow including income tax savings. That works out to about 10% pa. Then if it appreciates it's a bonus.

The buying and selling of property in Hong Kong was very liquid until the government spoiled everybody's fun recently by putting in some additional taxation measures. Liquidity was particularly at its height with the process of 'flipping' and very nice margins were made by some in the good old days.

I have never understood the attraction of the Hong Kong property market - horribly polluted and overcrowded. Nicer to make a cool $1 million a year profit property trading in the far more aesthetically pleasing suburb of Point Piper in Sydney overlooking the CLEAN harbour

http://www.northqueenslandregister.com.au/news/metro/national/general/33m-sale-of-point-piper-mansion-is-sydneys-third-highest-price-ever/2655088.aspx

Australia is not on my radar. Hong Kong is and has the added advantage of being only 2.5 hours flight time from Thailand and so easier to manage. I prefer the centre of an exciting city over suburbia but each to their own.

Edited February 27, 2014 by SheungWan

[mccw]

Sky just expanded the RBS story to point out that this 8.2 billion takes total losses since the crises to £46billion. Wow

[mccw]

That's after the gov bailed them out n took 80% ownership of the bank btw

[midas]

oh dear ! Rome nearing collapse again

City of Rome Risks Bankruptcy After Aid Falls Through

ROME—The Eternal City, now teetering on the brink of a Detroit-style bankruptcy, has served Italy's new prime minister his first major political headache.

On the first day of his premiership, Matteo Renzi had to withdraw a decree, promulgated by his predecessor, that would have helped the city of Rome fill an €816 million ($1.17 billion) budget gap, after filibustering by opposition lawmakers in the Parliament on Wednesday signaled...

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304071004579407313881911816?cb=logged0.1703585125480367

Edited February 28, 2014 by midas

[mccw]

UK debt figures only now about to account for the bank bail outs?!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8262037/Bank-bail-out-adds-1.5-trillion-to-debt.html

Extra 1trillion to go on the balance sheet

[midas]

I agree with the author pretty much.

And this article (posted by neversure ) which contains an appropriate passage entitled " THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT " is why I fundamentally don't agree with the author.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/707470-interesting-commentary-on-thai-economy-from-reuters/

Edited February 28, 2014 by midas

[SheungWan]

oh dear ! Rome nearing collapse again

City of Rome Risks Bankruptcy After Aid Falls Through

ROME—The Eternal City, now teetering on the brink of a Detroit-style bankruptcy, has served Italy's new prime minister his first major political headache.

On the first day of his premiership, Matteo Renzi had to withdraw a decree, promulgated by his predecessor, that would have helped the city of Rome fill an €816 million ($1.17 billion) budget gap, after filibustering by opposition lawmakers in the Parliament on Wednesday signaled...

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304071004579407313881911816?cb=logged0.1703585125480367

Rome in ruins, shock!

[Naam]

Rome in ruins, shock!

them Eyetallians can't get it right.

[midas]

Rome in ruins, shock!

them Eyetallians can't get it right.

Even the " mistress index " has collapsed

The Italian Economy Is So Bad, Italian Men Can No Longer Afford To Cheat

http://elitedaily.com/news/world/the-italian-economy-is-so-bad-italian-men-can-no-longer-afford-to-have-affairs-during-the-summer/

Edited February 28, 2014 by midas

[SheungWan]

Rome in ruins, shock!

them Eyetallians can't get it right.

Even the " mistress index " has collapsed

The Italian Economy Is So Bad, Italian Men Can No Longer Afford To Cheat

http://elitedaily.com/news/world/the-italian-economy-is-so-bad-italian-men-can-no-longer-afford-to-have-affairs-during-the-summer/

Finally, a financial indicator that has legs......

[midas]

If this Mark Karpelè fellow is responsible for the entire $473 million varnishing he would be technologically savvy enough not to leave any kind of digital or paper trail as to how the money was handled.

Mt. Gox Files for Bankruptcy Protection

"There was some weakness in the system, and the bitcoins have disappeared. I apologize for causing trouble," Mr. Karpelès said during a packed news conference at the Tokyo District Court press club.

In other words “ poof and its gone “

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303801304579410010379087576?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection&mg=reno64-wsj

Edited February 28, 2014 by midas

[midas]

Stiglitz: Leaving the Euro Painful but Staying in More Painful; Eurozone Breakup Recap

[mccw]

"Having the euro single currency was a Net negative over all"

"Better off leaving"