Interesting commentary on Thai economy from Reuters

[NeverSure]

I didn't know that Thai household debt had risen from 56% of GDP in 2008 to 80% now. I knew it was up due to the new home and new car schemes, but not that much.

I didn't know that foreign investment in Thailand dropped 13% in the last quarter of 2013, year over year.

No foreign writer I've read seems to know that the government is in the hole about 1 trillion baht for the rice scheme. They seem to mention the rice scheme without putting any numbers to it.

LINK

[RubbaJohnny]

Thanks

Hard to assess the hole,I 'm pretty sure you could pour a trillion in and there would still be a hole due to those siphoning off at every level

There may be more or less

That is why transparent auditing of the books and the actual volume and condition of the stock.

Rice Riskies

Sadly Smuggling,corruption,theft of the stock and creative paperwork or "lost" records etc means the figure will never be clear,just the debt which will blight the nations future.V ietnam and other competitors must be hubbing their glands in glee.

Aside from political outcomes it has been a trading disaster.

The farmers were assuming a higher income and looks like the system has crashed

Unless new donors taxpayers are willing to continue this subsidy there is going to be great gnashing of teeth and loss of face.

This combined to anger,poor investigation,rumour and the blame game set for a complet shambles.Utter rancour will finally remove the smile.

What substitute

Land of Hubs

Land of Scowls

Land of liars LOL

Edited February 27, 2014 by RubbaJohnny

[worgeordie]

The whole truth will never be known, a new government will come along

made up of all the same old faces and its business as usual,no one

takes responsibly for anything here,never even say sorry,if this had

happened in Japan,think more than a few politicians would have resigned

in shame,some even committing harakari .

regards worgeordie

[Naam]

Thai household debt GDP = 80%

U.S. household debt GDP = 80.98%

source: St. Louis FED

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HDTGPDUSQ163N

[Naam]

France household debt/GDP = ...53.62%

Germany household debt/GDP = 58.14%

Italy household debt/GDP = ........58.72%

Spain household debt/GDP = .....86.03%

Australia household debt/GDP =. 95.21

Canada household debt/GDP = ..95.20%

Greece household debt/GDP = .101.50%

and the winner is......... United Kingdom household debt/GDP = 204.34

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/tags/series?t=debt%3Bimf

[rucus7]

GDP for Thailand 345,672 : GDP for the State of California California 2,191,360 ( M$ USD ) (Year 2012) Perspective is relevant.

[Naam]

GDP for Thailand 345,672 : GDP for the State of California California 2,191,360 ( M$ USD ) (Year 2012) Perspective is relevant.

actually any perspective of GDP is irrelevant. the only thing that counts is the ratio Revenue:Debt. only with revenue, not with GDP, debt can be serviced.

the outstanding debt owed by California’s state and local governments, using responsible actuarial assumptions, is almost certainly in excess of $1.0 trillion

http://californiapublicpolicycenter.org/calculating-californias-total-state-and-local-government-debt/

California total public revenue 2013 = $ 385 billion

California total public spending 2013= $ 433 billion

estimated deficit 2013.....................= $ -48 billion

irrelevant perspective case closed,

plaintiff bears cost because of frivolous lawsuit.

Bailiff next case!

[NeverSure]

A lot of factors matter when looking at household debt. A Californian can get a home mortgage for 4 1/4% for 30 years fixed. It's simple interest, and can be paid early and interest charged only on time/money. A car loan can be paid off early with no penalty.

If a Californian has a house and car payment, he probably still has 60% of his income left to live on which might be 100,000 baht or more.

A Thai earning 30,000 baht with a house and car payment is probably in trouble.

[Naam]

A lot of factors matter when looking at household debt. A Californian can get a home mortgage for 4 1/4% for 30 years fixed. It's simple interest, and can be paid early and interest charged only on time/money. A car loan can be paid off early with no penalty.

If a Californian has a house and car payment, he probably still has 60% of his income left to live on which might be 100,000 baht or more.

A Thai earning 30,000 baht with a house and car payment is probably in trouble.

NS,

the last part of the discussion was not about Californian household debt but the posting of a (totally irrelevant) comparison of Thailand's and California's GDP.

relevant would be a comparison of TH and CA budget deficit, so here we go:

Thailand's budget deficit (revenue minus spendings) $4.7 billion

Claifornia's budget deficit (revenue minus spendings) $ 48 billion

using the irrlevant "perspective" the result is

CA GDP = 6.33 times of TH but deficit 10 times of TH

Your Honour,

Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury...

i rest my case.

[billd766]

My wifes nephew is 17 . He quit school at 15 so has no qualifications.

My wife got him a job with the Forestry Dept over a year ago and managed to keep him from being fired last year.

His salary is 6,500 baht a month.

I take 1,500 baht for food, rent, electricity, laundry etc or 50 baht a day.

1,000 a month for the scooter his is buying off my wife.

I take 1,500 baht a month and give him back 50 baht a day for gasoline to go to work.

He goes out most nights and runs up a bill in any one of 3 places.

He has 2,500 a month left to spend.

Last month he had debts of at least 2.135 baht and all the bills are not in yet.

That leaves him 365 baht for the rest of March and today is only March 1st and he wanted 600 baht last night to spend but I only gave him 300 which leaves him 2 baht per day to spend.

He thinks he is smart, I think he is dumb as a box of rocks.

He is a typical example of a rural Thai male and there are millions like him out there.

My wife, his aunt suggested we take 1,000 baht a month for the scooter and we kick him out to survive on his own.

[desmondspencer]

A lot of factors matter when looking at household debt. A Californian can get a home mortgage for 4 1/4% for 30 years fixed. It's simple interest, and can be paid early and interest charged only on time/money. A car loan can be paid off early with no penalty.

If a Californian has a house and car payment, he probably still has 60% of his income left to live on which might be 100,000 baht or more.

A Thai earning 30,000 baht with a house and car payment is probably in trouble.

NS,

the last part of the discussion was not about Californian household debt but the posting of a (totally irrelevant) comparison of Thailand's and California's GDP.

relevant would be a comparison of TH and CA budget deficit, so here we go:

Thailand's budget deficit (revenue minus spendings) $4.7 billion

Claifornia's budget deficit (revenue minus spendings) $ 48 billion

using the irrlevant "perspective" the result is

CA GDP = 6.33 times of TH but deficit 10 times of TH

Your Honour,

Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury...

i rest my case.

I like to believe the quoted deficit is in usd.

If that is the case, based on existing currency exchange rates. Wouldn't it be 30 times more?

Thailand, like most Asian countries don't "encourage" early repayments.

Actually reads "financial freedom"

Interest rates are charged at the time of signing on the dotted line & adheres throughout the agreed tenure of loan. "If no incentive is encouraged, why bother paying early?" Is what most Thais I know will reply

somtam palah

[Naam]

I like to believe the quoted deficit is in usd.

If that is the case, based on existing currency exchange rates. Wouldn't it be 30 times more?

expressed in Baht it would be more. expressed in Vietnamese Dong, sand grains in the Sahara, former Zimbabwe Dollars or German Reichsmark it would be much more.

an yes, of course both deficits i posted are in USD. reason: it doesn't make sense to compare apples with strawberries.

[impulse]

I'd rather make $200K a year and be $200K in debt than make $20K a year and be $10K in debt.

At $200K per year, I'd have some discretionary income (after food, shelter, clothing, health care) that I can use to pay down the debt.

At $20K per year, I'd have no discretionary income and will probably have to go further in debt just to make ends meet.

In one case, it's conceivable that I can make some adjustments to the behavior that got me $200K into debt and pay my way out. In the other, it's just too bad...

California and the USA have all kinds of resources and assets they haven't tapped yet to "make ends meet" because it's politically suicidal to tap them. Hopefully, that switch will happen in my lifetime- but I'm not holding my breath.

Not sure Thailand has that kind of bench to call up.

Edited March 1, 2014 by impulse

[Naam]

I'd rather make $200K a year and be $200K in debt than make $20K a year and be $10K in debt.

and that will solve California's budget deficit?

[impulse]

I'd rather make $200K a year and be $200K in debt than make $20K a year and be $10K in debt.

and that will solve California's budget deficit?

Got any more red herrings? Or do you want to have a reasonable back and forth?

[i claudius]

I'd rather make $200K a year and be $200K in debt than make $20K a year and be $10K in debt.

At $200K per year, I'd have some discretionary income (after food, shelter, clothing, health care) that I can use to pay down the debt.

At $20K per year, I'd have no discretionary income and will probably have to go further in debt just to make ends meet.

In one case, it's conceivable that I can make some adjustments to the behavior that got me $200K into debt and pay my way out. In the other, it's just too bad...

California and the USA have all kinds of resources and assets they haven't tapped yet to "make ends meet" because it's politically suicidal to tap them. Hopefully, that switch will happen in my lifetime- but I'm not holding my breath.

Not sure Thailand has that kind of bench to call up.

I agree with you ,here in Thailand the people have no wiggle room ,so many Thais i know are way over their heads in Debt ,wheras in the west there are many safty nets ,but please do not tell Naam i said this as he knows more than all of us put together

[Naam]

I'd rather make $200K a year and be $200K in debt than make $20K a year and be $10K in debt.

At $200K per year, I'd have some discretionary income (after food, shelter, clothing, health care) that I can use to pay down the debt.

At $20K per year, I'd have no discretionary income and will probably have to go further in debt just to make ends meet.

In one case, it's conceivable that I can make some adjustments to the behavior that got me $200K into debt and pay my way out. In the other, it's just too bad...

California and the USA have all kinds of resources and assets they haven't tapped yet to "make ends meet" because it's politically suicidal to tap them. Hopefully, that switch will happen in my lifetime- but I'm not holding my breath.

Not sure Thailand has that kind of bench to call up.

I agree with you ,here in Thailand the people have no wiggle room ,so many Thais i know are way over their heads in Debt ,wheras in the west there are many safty nets ,but please do not tell Naam i said this as he knows more than all of us put together

i never contradict you when you are right

[i claudius]

I'd rather make $200K a year and be $200K in debt than make $20K a year and be $10K in debt.

At $200K per year, I'd have some discretionary income (after food, shelter, clothing, health care) that I can use to pay down the debt.

At $20K per year, I'd have no discretionary income and will probably have to go further in debt just to make ends meet.

In one case, it's conceivable that I can make some adjustments to the behavior that got me $200K into debt and pay my way out. In the other, it's just too bad...

California and the USA have all kinds of resources and assets they haven't tapped yet to "make ends meet" because it's politically suicidal to tap them. Hopefully, that switch will happen in my lifetime- but I'm not holding my breath.

Not sure Thailand has that kind of bench to call up.

I agree with you ,here in Thailand the people have no wiggle room ,so many Thais i know are way over their heads in Debt ,wheras in the west there are many safty nets ,but please do not tell Naam i said this as he knows more than all of us put together

i never contradict you when you are right

but am i right this time? i think i am.

[marcusd]

Thais don't have room to move and even,less if the car industry goes to Indonesia where I am informed by a Toyota executive in Australia that was part of the reason Australia lost Toyota. Indonesia is offering free electricity for 5 years as they have I'll and has reserves and want a bigger share of industry.

Thailand can't match that.

Definitely no wiggle room, unlike many western countries

Marcusd. Via tapatalk

[Naam]

let's simply agree what a score of TV-members suggested in a dozen threads and hundreds of postings (since ~8 years) that Thailand is doomed, the Thai economy will crash, the Baht will fall into an abyss and expats with Dollars, Pounds as well as €URos will rule... any time from now.

[Lancelot]

I'd rather make $200K a year and be $200K in debt than make $20K a year and be $10K in debt.

I'd rather make $200,000 annually, have no debt, invest my savings in a Total Market Index Fund, 5 basis points expense fee- then retire early at age 40

[Naam]

I'd rather make $200K a year and be $200K in debt than make $20K a year and be $10K in debt.

I'd rather make $200,000 annually, have no debt, invest my savings in a Total Market Index Fund, 5 basis points expense fee- then retire early at age 40

did you take the horrible, racist and fraudulent 150 Baht ATM fee into consideration? my advice: retire a few years later to compensate for this terrible drain on your savings

[Lancelot]

I'd rather make $200K a year and be $200K in debt than make $20K a year and be $10K in debt.

I'd rather make $200,000 annually, have no debt, invest my savings in a Total Market Index Fund, 5 basis points expense fee- then retire early at age 40

did you take the horrible, racist and fraudulent 150 Baht ATM fee into consideration? my advice: retire a few years later to compensate for this terrible drain on your savings

I forgot that little detail- now I will NEVER be able to retire

[i claudius]

let's simply agree what a score of TV-members suggested in a dozen threads and hundreds of postings (since ~8 years) that Thailand is doomed, the Thai economy will crash, the Baht will fall into an abyss and expats with Dollars, Pounds as well as €URos will rule... any time from now.

L-dog vvvs.jpg

Ditto for all the posters who say all in the garden is rosy and Thailand is in great shape with no problems.

by the way i do not think they will crash and burn ,but all is not that well in la la land,

[SheungWan]

I'd rather make $200K a year and be $200K in debt than make $20K a year and be $10K in debt.

I'd rather make $200,000 annually, have no debt, invest my savings in a Total Market Index Fund, 5 basis points expense fee- then retire early at age 40

If no debt below the age of 40 then probably living in a bedsit making up wishlists.

[NeverSure]

A lot of factors matter when looking at household debt. A Californian can get a home mortgage for 4 1/4% for 30 years fixed. It's simple interest, and can be paid early and interest charged only on time/money. A car loan can be paid off early with no penalty.

If a Californian has a house and car payment, he probably still has 60% of his income left to live on which might be 100,000 baht or more.

A Thai earning 30,000 baht with a house and car payment is probably in trouble.

NS,

the last part of the discussion was not about Californian household debt but the posting of a (totally irrelevant) comparison of Thailand's and California's GDP.

relevant would be a comparison of TH and CA budget deficit, so here we go:

Thailand's budget deficit (revenue minus spendings) $4.7 billion

Claifornia's budget deficit (revenue minus spendings) $ 48 billion

using the irrlevant "perspective" the result is

CA GDP = 6.33 times of TH but deficit 10 times of TH

Your Honour,

Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury...

i rest my case.

California's books are strictly audited. Thailand's are not. Who knows of the schemes and scams?

For instance, Thailand is in "debt" about 1 trillion baht for the rice scheme but they don't count all of that spending as deficit. That money consists of "loans" mostly from the BAAC which will be paid back from the sale of rice.

[impulse]

I'd rather make $200K a year and be $200K in debt than make $20K a year and be $10K in debt.

I'd rather make $200,000 annually, have no debt, invest my savings in a Total Market Index Fund, 5 basis points expense fee- then retire early at age 40

I'd rather invent a car that runs on CO2 it extracts from the air and invest those profits into starting up the next Microsoft- while I'm in high school. But that ain't gonna happen for the vast majority of any nation's working stiffs, either.

[SheungWan]

Thailand's current credit rating from all three rating agencies is 'stable'.

Lower medium grade band.

[impulse]

Thailand's current credit rating from all three rating agencies is 'stable'.

Lower medium grade band.

Good info. Thanks.

Now.....Apologies in advance.

What was Enron's a year before they went belly up? What was Lehman's in 2007?

[Naam]

A lot of factors matter when looking at household debt. A Californian can get a home mortgage for 4 1/4% for 30 years fixed. It's simple interest, and can be paid early and interest charged only on time/money. A car loan can be paid off early with no penalty.

If a Californian has a house and car payment, he probably still has 60% of his income left to live on which might be 100,000 baht or more.

A Thai earning 30,000 baht with a house and car payment is probably in trouble.

NS,

the last part of the discussion was not about Californian household debt but the posting of a (totally irrelevant) comparison of Thailand's and California's GDP.

relevant would be a comparison of TH and CA budget deficit, so here we go:

Thailand's budget deficit (revenue minus spendings) $4.7 billion

Claifornia's budget deficit (revenue minus spendings) $ 48 billion

using the irrlevant "perspective" the result is

CA GDP = 6.33 times of TH but deficit 10 times of TH

Your Honour,

Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury...

i rest my case.

California's books are strictly audited. Thailand's are not. Who knows of the schemes and scams?

For instance, Thailand is in "debt" about 1 trillion baht for the rice scheme but they don't count all of that spending as deficit. That money consists of "loans" mostly from the BAAC which will be paid back from the sale of rice.

1 trillion Mickey Mouse money debt is peanuts when converted into "real" money, e.g. US-Dollars