Financial Crisis

[mccw]

"""

Andy Haldane, soon to be chief economist at the Bank of England, told an audience of economists in Toronto last week that we were "still in the intellectual foothills in terms of dealing with potential financial risks". He pointed out that while there was some good news – for instance that banks in 2006 had borrowings worth 32 times their balance sheets and now "only" about 21 times – the problem had shifted to exotic derivatives, which accounted for $19tn of bank portfolios in 2006, but total $31tn today. Then there is the fact that 90% of trades in New York are generated by algorithm-driven computers, making the financial system prone to extreme volatility.

"""

Extract from a longer piece from the guardian via biz insider app.

Some interesting numbers in there.

[mccw]

BTW The headline from the above referenced are tickle is:

"IMF is sleepwalking in to another global economic catastrophe"

[SheungWan]

But now it's not only the “merry band of halfwits “ issuing warnings?

But could it be "Merry band of half wits" practising repetitive selection bias with a particular favour for WARNINGS?

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app

Yes with enough material even to make a new documentary movie

http://www.caseyresearch.com/meltdown-america

Another hysteric gold bug website.

[SheungWan]

It is so easy to speak after the facts isn't it, but I guess you didn't read my post which said, manipulation makes the markets unpredictable.

http://uni1.azurewebsites.net/insight/could-high-frequency-trading-hft-computers-manipulate-the-market

Could High-frequency trading (HFT) computers manipulate the market ?

No, not speaking after the facts. You are free to short the market going forward any time from now, which I guess you won't because you buy into the gold bug paranoia. In their world everything is a conspiracy and everything is manipulated by dark forces. As for IHT, the effect on the individual small investor is marginal as one can make a price-limit purchase or sale and if one focusses on large liquid stocks there is greater safety. IHT is about front-running but since one can pay extra for Level 2 access on say the FTSE to see the weighting and volume of advance sales and orders plus live streaming prices across a sector as opposed to the average investor who can only get 15 minutes delayed quotes other than an immediate price on a specific stock, you might think that was unfair as well. Well life's unfair.

[midas]

tut tut to perish the thought! We can't have people not spending NOW in the Eurozone.

The BBC tells it like it is

ECB hints at further stimulus to combat low inflation

Their fear is that falling inflation could harm the eurozone's fragile economic recovery by reducing consumer spending - because people would be likely to put off purchases, believing prices will continue to fall. ( GREAT !!!! ) Very low inflation also means governments and businesses find it more difficult to repay their debts.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27008293

Edited April 13, 2014 by midas

[JesseFrank]

My point wasn't about getting the economy back on it's feet, which of course the government is doing a well with I hope, but the fact that stocks are way overvalued these days.And with the false security feeling the investor gets, it's making things worse.

Don't tell me that the acquisition of Whatsapp by Facebook for 19Bn$ ior a stock price of 528 times earning for a company like Amazon, which hasn't made a single dollar profit in it's history, are healthy indicators.

That are just 2 examples, but take a look at what is recently happening with new IPO's like King resources .

Last time I looked out of my window I noticed that trees don't grow into the sky, at one point they fall down or get cut. The market is in for a much needed correction in my opinion

of course it is not healthy but it is reality. idiots ordinary people buy shares quoted at idiotic high values and are financing these deals hoping to make a profit "later".

So you think that the ordinary idiots are driving up the prices, while in fact only 14% of the shares of Amazon are held by ordinary idiots .

[Naam]

My point wasn't about getting the economy back on it's feet, which of course the government is doing a well with I hope, but the fact that stocks are way overvalued these days.And with the false security feeling the investor gets, it's making things worse.

Don't tell me that the acquisition of Whatsapp by Facebook for 19Bn$ ior a stock price of 528 times earning for a company like Amazon, which hasn't made a single dollar profit in it's history, are healthy indicators.

That are just 2 examples, but take a look at what is recently happening with new IPO's like King resources .

Last time I looked out of my window I noticed that trees don't grow into the sky, at one point they fall down or get cut. The market is in for a much needed correction in my opinion

of course it is not healthy but it is reality. idiots ordinary people buy shares quoted at idiotic high values and are financing these deals hoping to make a profit "later".

So you think that the ordinary idiots are driving up the prices, while in fact only 14% of the shares of Amazon are held by ordinary idiots .

it's a fact that people who hold shares do not move prices, i.e. your question is rhetoric.

in my [not so] humble opinion it's also a fact that people who buy shares in a company that does not own tangible assets are ordinary idiots gamblers who drive the prices divided in two parts. lucky ordinary gamblers who were or are able to realise substantial profits and unlucky ordinary gamblers who sit on substantial losses.

[Naam]

Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50% in 2014

It is only a matter of time before the stock market plunges by 50% or more, according to several reputable experts.

“We have no right to be surprised by a severe and imminent stock market crash,” explains Mark Spitznagel, a hedge fund manager who is notorious for his hugely profitable billion-dollar bet on the 2008 crisis. “In fact, we must absolutely expect it."

Unfortunately Spitznagel isn’t alone.

“We are in a gigantic financial asset bubble,” warns Swiss adviser and fund manager Marc Faber. “It could burst any day.”

http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNewsIntl/Stock-market-recession-alert/2014/02/10/id/551985/?promo_code=166D4-1&utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=referral

[chiang mai]

Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50% in 2014

It is only a matter of time before the stock market plunges by 50% or more, according to several reputable experts.

“We have no right to be surprised by a severe and imminent stock market crash,” explains Mark Spitznagel, a hedge fund manager who is notorious for his hugely profitable billion-dollar bet on the 2008 crisis. “In fact, we must absolutely expect it."

Unfortunately Spitznagel isn’t alone.

“We are in a gigantic financial asset bubble,” warns Swiss adviser and fund manager Marc Faber. “It could burst any day.”

http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNewsIntl/Stock-market-recession-alert/2014/02/10/id/551985/?promo_code=166D4-1&utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=referral

I thought the best part was this:

"How can Hyman be so sure?

He has access to a secret Wall Street calendar that has beat the overall market by 250% since 1968. This calendar simply lists 19 investments (based on sectors of the market) and 38 dates to buy and sell them, and by doing so, one could turn $1,000 into as much as $300,000 in a 10-year time frame".

Thank god, I thought it was all nonsense until the existence of the secret calendar was confirmed, phew!

[midas]

half of these places predicted to close down is a phenomenal amount.

And I can never see Americans being disciplined enough to rely on online education. The other day I saw American students being interviewed and they were asked to identify Sec of State John Kerry. Many of them simply did know at all who we was and one person thought he was a talk-show host

It’s been five years since the recession ended and yet their finances are worsening. Soaring student debt, competition from online programs and poor job prospects for graduates are shrinking their applicant pools. Harvard Business School professor Clayton Christensen has predicted that as many as half of the more than 4,000 universities and colleges in the U.S. may fail in the next 15 years. The growing acceptance of online learning means higher education is ripe for technological upheaval, he has said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-14/small-u-s-colleges-battle-death-spiral-as-enrollment-drops.html

[mccw]

Wafer thin;

"""

LONDON (Reuters) - The euro zone's 20 largest quoted banks took a combined 71.5 billion euros of loan loss provisions in 2013.

The breakdown of how much was booked by each bank is below:

EUR million

Unicredit 13,658

Santander 10,863

Intesa Sanpaolo 7,131

BBVA 5,776

CaixaBank 4,329

BNP Paribas 4,054

Societe Generale 4,052

Credit Agricole 2,961

Banco Popular Espanol 2,324

ING 2,288

Deutsche Bank 2,029

Sabadell 1,764

Erste Bank 1,763

Commerzbank 1,747

KBC 1,719

Bank of Ireland 1,665

Bankia 1,249

Raiffeisen 1,149

Mediobanca 576

Natixis 392

Total 71,489

"""

[mccw]

"""

BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Parliament on Tuesday was set to complete the biggest overhaul of the bloc's financial system since the introduction of the euro currency, passing laws to minimize the risk and cost posed by failing banks.

Lawmakers were slated to sign off on the creation of a European authority with the power to unwind or restructure failing banks, as well as a system that will see banks' creditors — not governments — take losses first when lenders fail.

The reforms aim to keep the cost of rescuing banks from overwhelming a country's public finances, said Elisa Ferreira, the leading lawmaker on the issue.

Parliament was also expected to pass legislation that protects all deposits of up to 100,000 euros ($138,000) in case of bank failures across the 28-nation bloc.

The votes bring to a close an ambitious reform agenda launched in the wake of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Since then, European governments pumped some 600 billion euros (currently $830 billion) into saving ailing banks, according to EU figures.

""""

Snippet from biz insider app.

Compare those numbers with above. So far they have pumped 600 billion euro in to prop up/ cover losses from the last down turn. "600 billion" .

Today all the major bank together only have 71 billion to cover losses combined, hmm

Now they the EU makes the law so "creditors" are the first to loose money in case of a failure/ restructuring. Fair play maybe; a matter of opinion. Tax payers shouldn't be on the hook to bail them out. But at least depositors under 100k are supposedly garrantteed.

As has been warned though- should be clear enough that the banks are not a safe place for your cash

[cheeryble]

The other day I saw American students being interviewed and they were asked to identify Sec of State John Kerry. Many of them simply did know at all who we was and one person thought he was a talk-show host

Not surprising as his face recently became five times wider

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app

[JesseFrank]

So you have shorted the DOW or the S+P ?

Well i think everything's going just fine. US equity portfolio lost 14% over the past 2 weeks, so definitely no correction going on.

[SheungWan]

So you have shorted the DOW or the S+P ?

Well i think everything's going just fine. US equity portfolio lost 14% over the past 2 weeks, so definitely no correction going on.

Every work day you have the option to stick, rotate or cash up.

[JesseFrank]

So you have shorted the DOW or the S+P ?

Well i think everything's going just fine. US equity portfolio lost 14% over the past 2 weeks, so definitely no correction going on.

Every work day you have the option to stick, rotate or cash up.

I suggest you go back to the weatherforum, because you sound like a weatherman.

Today it will rain with a possibility of a lot of sun.

[midas]

The other day I saw American students being interviewed and they were asked to identify Sec of State John Kerry. Many of them simply did know at all who we was and one person thought he was a talk-show host

Not surprising as his face recently became five times wider

ImageUploadedByThaivisa Connect Thailand1397575287.790983.jpg

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app

Trying to defend their lack of VERY BASIC knowledge based on face size?

Edited April 16, 2014 by midas

[JesseFrank]

My point wasn't about getting the economy back on it's feet, which of course the government is doing a well with I hope, but the fact that stocks are way overvalued these days.And with the false security feeling the investor gets, it's making things worse.

Don't tell me that the acquisition of Whatsapp by Facebook for 19Bn$ ior a stock price of 528 times earning for a company like Amazon, which hasn't made a single dollar profit in it's history, are healthy indicators.

That are just 2 examples, but take a look at what is recently happening with new IPO's like King resources .

Last time I looked out of my window I noticed that trees don't grow into the sky, at one point they fall down or get cut. The market is in for a much needed correction in my opinion

So you have shorted the DOW or the S+P ?

You must be the richest man in town if you know exactly what the market gonna do in the short term, regardless of the signals it's sending.

Ever heard about market manipulation ? As that is the exact reason for the overvalue, but as the word says, it makes the market unpredictable for the average investor .

I guess the answer from you is therefore no. One of the easiest ways for an investor to short the market is to buy an ETF which does exactly that. One can hold that ETF for a longer or shorter period. Mind you, anybody who a year ago was shouting that the market was going down and had put their money where their mouth was would have lost a lot a lot of money to date. Much easier to have kept repeating oneself in hope that the roulette wheel had hit that number.

https://www.google.com/finance?q=dog

Breakout

Ackman, Allergan and insider trading

This week a very rich man made about a billion dollars trading on material, non-public information.

The investor is Bill Ackman and what he knew was that Valeant Pharmaceuticals would be making an unsolicited bid for botox-maker Allergan. Ackman knew about the bid because he and his Pershing Square Capital Management were partners with Valeant in the bid.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/ackman--allergan-and-insider-trading-140059849.html

[SheungWan]

Breakout

Ackman, Allergan and insider trading

This week a very rich man made about a billion dollars trading on material, non-public information.

The investor is Bill Ackman and what he knew was that Valeant Pharmaceuticals would be making an unsolicited bid for botox-maker Allergan. Ackman knew about the bid because he and his Pershing Square Capital Management were partners with Valeant in the bid.

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/ackman--allergan-and-insider-trading-140059849.html

Its a moot point as to whether trading on info related to what oneself is going to do constitutes insider trading. However, the discovery that an activist investor has established a substantial position in that stock is often good news for existing stock holders. To avoid individual stock volatility, investors can always buy an ETF either for an individual sector or even just the DOW or S+P. Over the last year an S+P ETF would have hung, drawn and quartered gold bugs and their bags of trinkets. No wonder the resentment.

[midas]

Okay, here is a question for SheungWan ( or anyone else who shares his more optimistic views )

SheungWan is usually very quick to dismiss news from unknown websites but this time it's not going to be so easy for him. On the BBC world Newsnight programme today they interviewed two co-authors of a new book entitled “ The Second Machine Age “. Both authors have what seem to be impeccable credentials so no one can easily dismiss conclusions from their research. (The excerpt from Newsnight is in the link below)

Erik Brynjolfsson is an American academic, and Schussel Family Professor of Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management, the Director of the MIT Center for Digital Business. Andrew McAfee is the associate director of the Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management, studying the ways information technology (IT) affects businesses and business as a whole.

My question is, how can there possibly be an upside to stock markets, housing markets and all other forms of investments if huge numbers of the population are going to be rendered permanently unemployed by this trend? How can economies like USA survive when they rely so heavily on consumption, but when increasing numbers of the population will find it hard to secure any decent kind of income?

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-27125728

Edited April 27, 2014 by midas

[SheungWan]

Okay, here is a question for SheungWan ( or anyone else who shares his more optimistic views )

SheungWan is usually very quick to dismiss news from unknown websites but this time it's not going to be so easy for him. On the BBC world Newsnight programme today they interviewed two co-authors of a new book entitled The Second Machine Age . Both authors have what seem to be impeccable credentials so no one can easily dismiss conclusions from their research. (The excerpt from Newsnight is in the link below)

Erik Brynjolfsson is an American academic, and Schussel Family Professor of Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management, the Director of the MIT Center for Digital Business. Andrew McAfee is the associate director of the Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management, studying the ways information technology (IT) affects businesses and business as a whole.

My question is, how can there possibly be an upside to stock markets, housing markets and all other forms of investments if huge numbers of the population are going to be rendered permanently unemployed by this trend? How can economies like USA survive when they rely so heavily on consumption, but when increasing numbers of the population will find it hard to secure any decent kind of income?

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-27125728

Technophobia, Malthus, its all old hat. In the case of technophobia since 1811 when the Luddites started destroying machines. Every so often these end of the world theories pop up for a new round of fear indulgence. Even when automobiles first made their appearance there was a worry that thousands of horse stable workers would be unemployed.

[midas]

Okay, here is a question for SheungWan ( or anyone else who shares his more optimistic views )

SheungWan is usually very quick to dismiss news from unknown websites but this time it's not going to be so easy for him. On the BBC world Newsnight programme today they interviewed two co-authors of a new book entitled The Second Machine Age . Both authors have what seem to be impeccable credentials so no one can easily dismiss conclusions from their research. (The excerpt from Newsnight is in the link below)

Erik Brynjolfsson is an American academic, and Schussel Family Professor of Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management, the Director of the MIT Center for Digital Business. Andrew McAfee is the associate director of the Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management, studying the ways information technology (IT) affects businesses and business as a whole.

My question is, how can there possibly be an upside to stock markets, housing markets and all other forms of investments if huge numbers of the population are going to be rendered permanently unemployed by this trend? How can economies like USA survive when they rely so heavily on consumption, but when increasing numbers of the population will find it hard to secure any decent kind of income?

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-27125728

Technophobia, Malthus, its all old hat. In the case of technophobia since 1811 when the Luddites started destroying machines. Every so often these end of the world theories pop up for a new round of fear indulgence. Even when automobiles first made their appearance there was a worry that thousands of horse stable workers would be unemployed.

Oh dear.

I expected at least a bit more substance than your usual dismissive superficial response. Not so easy for you to dismiss this as a conspiracy theory is it.

The evidence is there before you how the first machine age led to huge unemployment and that was only with regards to using machines instead of manual labour. There is no way on earth humans will be able to compete financially with the supercomputers (No salaries, no holiday pay, no benefits, no pension costs, no health care costs etc etc) when in fact the younger humans are getting dumber and the machines are becoming exponentially more capable.

Edited April 28, 2014 by midas

[SheungWan]

Okay, here is a question for SheungWan ( or anyone else who shares his more optimistic views )

SheungWan is usually very quick to dismiss news from unknown websites but this time it's not going to be so easy for him. On the BBC world Newsnight programme today they interviewed two co-authors of a new book entitled The Second Machine Age . Both authors have what seem to be impeccable credentials so no one can easily dismiss conclusions from their research. (The excerpt from Newsnight is in the link below)

Erik Brynjolfsson is an American academic, and Schussel Family Professor of Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management, the Director of the MIT Center for Digital Business. Andrew McAfee is the associate director of the Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management, studying the ways information technology (IT) affects businesses and business as a whole.

My question is, how can there possibly be an upside to stock markets, housing markets and all other forms of investments if huge numbers of the population are going to be rendered permanently unemployed by this trend? How can economies like USA survive when they rely so heavily on consumption, but when increasing numbers of the population will find it hard to secure any decent kind of income?

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-27125728

Technophobia, Malthus, its all old hat. In the case of technophobia since 1811 when the Luddites started destroying machines. Every so often these end of the world theories pop up for a new round of fear indulgence. Even when automobiles first made their appearance there was a worry that thousands of horse stable workers would be unemployed.

Oh dear.

I expected at least a bit more substance than your usual dismissive superficial response. Not so easy for you to dismiss this as a conspiracy theory is it.

The evidence is there before you how the first machine age led to huge unemployment and that was only with regards to using machines instead of manual labour. There is no way on earth humans will be able to compete financially with the supercomputers (No salaries, no holiday pay, no benefits, no pension costs, no health care costs etc etc) when in fact the younger humans are getting dumber and the machines are becoming exponentially more capable.

Hey! Its 'Terminator' meets 'I Robot' time!

Edited April 28, 2014 by SheungWan

[midas]

Technophobia, Malthus, its all old hat. In the case of technophobia since 1811 when the Luddites started destroying machines. Every so often these end of the world theories pop up for a new round of fear indulgence. Even when automobiles first made their appearance there was a worry that thousands of horse stable workers would be unemployed.

Oh dear.

I expected at least a bit more substance than your usual dismissive superficial response. Not so easy for you to dismiss this as a conspiracy theory is it.

The evidence is there before you how the first machine age led to huge unemployment and that was only with regards to using machines instead of manual labour. There is no way on earth humans will be able to compete financially with the supercomputers (No salaries, no holiday pay, no benefits, no pension costs, no health care costs etc etc) when in fact the younger humans are getting dumber and the machines are becoming exponentially more capable.

Hey! Its 'Terminator' meets 'I Robot' time!

i robot.jpg terminator.jpg

Here come the robot lawyers

The law profession is being reshaped by new automation technologies that allow law firms to complete legal work in a fraction of the time and with far less manpower. Think IBM's "Jeopardy!"-winning computer Watson -- practicing law.

As law firms weigh the pros and cons of using algorithms instead of lawyers, technology might even render some of the firms themselves moot.

http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/28/technology/innovation/robot-lawyers/index.html

[midas]

Technophobia, Malthus, its all old hat. In the case of technophobia since 1811 when the Luddites started destroying machines. Every so often these end of the world theories pop up for a new round of fear indulgence. Even when automobiles first made their appearance there was a worry that thousands of horse stable workers would be unemployed.

Oh dear.

I expected at least a bit more substance than your usual dismissive superficial response. Not so easy for you to dismiss this as a conspiracy theory is it.

The evidence is there before you how the first machine age led to huge unemployment and that was only with regards to using machines instead of manual labour. There is no way on earth humans will be able to compete financially with the supercomputers (No salaries, no holiday pay, no benefits, no pension costs, no health care costs etc etc) when in fact the younger humans are getting dumber and the machines are becoming exponentially more capable.

Hey! Its 'Terminator' meets 'I Robot' time!

i robot.jpg terminator.jpg

Here come the robot lawyers

The law profession is being reshaped by new automation technologies that allow law firms to complete legal work in a fraction of the time and with far less manpower. Think IBM's "Jeopardy!"-winning computer Watson -- practicing law.

As law firms weigh the pros and cons of using algorithms instead of lawyers, technology might even render some of the firms themselves moot.

http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/28/technology/innovation/robot-lawyers/index.html

[SheungWan]

http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/28/technology/innovation/robot-lawyers/index.html

IKBS software has been around for years.

[midas]

http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/28/technology/innovation/robot-lawyers/index.html

IKBS software has been around for years.

Driverless Trucks Debut In Japan

http://news.discovery.com/autos/future-of-transportation/driverless-trucks-debut-in-japan-130304.htm

Edited April 28, 2014 by midas

[SheungWan]

http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/28/technology/innovation/robot-lawyers/index.html

IKBS software has been around for years.

Driverless Trucks Debut In Japan

http://news.discovery.com/autos/future-of-transportation/driverless-trucks-debut-in-japan-130304.htm

You are slow. Already driverless cars, not to mention drones.

Edited April 28, 2014 by SheungWan

[waza]

Okay, here is a question for SheungWan ( or anyone else who shares his more optimistic views )

SheungWan is usually very quick to dismiss news from unknown websites but this time it's not going to be so easy for him. On the BBC world Newsnight programme today they interviewed two co-authors of a new book entitled The Second Machine Age . Both authors have what seem to be impeccable credentials so no one can easily dismiss conclusions from their research. (The excerpt from Newsnight is in the link below)

Erik Brynjolfsson is an American academic, and Schussel Family Professor of Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management, the Director of the MIT Center for Digital Business. Andrew McAfee is the associate director of the Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management, studying the ways information technology (IT) affects businesses and business as a whole.

My question is, how can there possibly be an upside to stock markets, housing markets and all other forms of investments if huge numbers of the population are going to be rendered permanently unemployed by this trend? How can economies like USA survive when they rely so heavily on consumption, but when increasing numbers of the population will find it hard to secure any decent kind of income?

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-27125728

Technophobia, Malthus, its all old hat. In the case of technophobia since 1811 when the Luddites started destroying machines. Every so often these end of the world theories pop up for a new round of fear indulgence. Even when automobiles first made their appearance there was a worry that thousands of horse stable workers would be unemployed.

Oh dear.

I expected at least a bit more substance than your usual dismissive superficial response. Not so easy for you to dismiss this as a conspiracy theory is it.

The evidence is there before you how the first machine age led to huge unemployment and that was only with regards to using machines instead of manual labour. There is no way on earth humans will be able to compete financially with the supercomputers (No salaries, no holiday pay, no benefits, no pension costs, no health care costs etc etc) when in fact the younger humans are getting dumber and the machines are becoming exponentially more capable.

Hey! Its 'Terminator' meets 'I Robot' time!

i robot.jpg terminator.jpg

Didnt the first machine age lead to social revolutions? Idle hands do the devils work.

[SheungWan]

Didnt the first machine age lead to social revolutions? Idle hands do the devils work.

Britain's revolution preceded the machine age.