Financial Crisis

[SheungWan]

Great idea?

Start gambling with the pensions pot. Need to prop up the market do they?

Bellow extract from Reuters app

"""

TOKYO (Reuters) - Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is moving to shake up oversight of the world's largest pension fund, expanding the board and giving it new power to steer a shift out of Japanese government bonds and into higher-yielding assets, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter.

Officials are considering a proposal to add two or three dedicated professional advisors to the committee that oversees investment at the $1.26 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF). They would play a key role in reforming a fund that's bigger than the economic output of Mexico with the power to influence markets as Abe presses policies to spur growth.

The beefed-up GPIF committee could be given new, broader powers that would make it the final arbiter for how the Japanese pension fund invests its money, according to the people, who asked not to be named because the policy measures remain under discussion.

The existing investment committee comprises academics and economists, with a representative from Japan's trade union federation and one from the main business lobby. Its current role is restricted to advising the fund's president.

The proposed reforms would help shift GPIF towards riskier investments like stocks and away from low-yielding Japanese government bonds. Supporters of the reform say targeting higher returns would benefit future pension recipients in Japan's ageing population and drive economic growth.

"""

They can consult or refer to the performances of the Norwegian and Singapore funds which have undertaken something similar for years.

[mccw]

Hmm yes - maybe a great idea after all. While markets are rising.

And when the pension funds start selling all the Jap. gov. bonds and not buying anymore how will the market pick up the slack? Is Abe yen super duper QE mega loaded plan to buy all and any slack with the freshly printed/ digitally created yen?

It is all fine - unlimited money creation. The 1 trillion $ value or whatever can add in the system to buy all bonds while the original 1 trillion can go in to stocks. No effect? Great for buying stocks before this huge shift?

[SheungWan]

Hmm yes - maybe a great idea after all. While markets are rising.

And when the pension funds start selling all the Jap. gov. bonds and not buying anymore how will the market pick up the slack? Is Abe yen super duper QE mega loaded plan to buy all and any slack with the freshly printed/ digitally created yen?

It is all fine - unlimited money creation. The 1 trillion $ value or whatever can add in the system to buy all bonds while the original 1 trillion can go in to stocks. No effect? Great for buying stocks before this huge shift?

These things usually happen over an extended period of time.

[Asiantravel]

What financial crisis?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/09/markets-bonds-euro-idUSL6N0N13Z120140409

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app

Not even two months

Greek Selloff Shows Rush for Exit Recalling Crisis . http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-19/greek-selloff-shows-rush-for-exit-recalling-crisis-euro-credit.html

Edited May 19, 2014 by Asiantravel

[SheungWan]

What financial crisis?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/09/markets-bonds-euro-idUSL6N0N13Z120140409

Sent from my iPad using ThaiVisa app

Not even two months

Greek Selloff Shows Rush for Exit Recalling Crisis . http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-19/greek-selloff-shows-rush-for-exit-recalling-crisis-euro-credit.html

Given how far spreads have contracted, some volatility to be expected and the German-Greek bond spread still thin. The accentuated activity is in the potential fallout from the current European elections about to take place. As for Greece, it has traditionally played a game of musical chairs to dodge previous agreements made but everybody else wise to this game now. Edited May 19, 2014 by SheungWan

[mccw]

Yeah right Eric! If you call zero jail time and only paying a fine at a fraction of total profits from illegal activities as not being above the law; what a joke. What would happen to individuals running such a scheme on a smaller scale? Years in the klinck I bet.

Below from reuters app

"""

Credit Suisse on Monday became the largest bank in 20 years to plead guilty to a U.S. criminal charge, and will pay a $2.5 billion fine to authorities for helping Americans evade taxes, Attorney General Eric Holder said.

But the Swiss bank escaped the worst for its business - its top management stayed in place, and the New York state bank regulator said it had decided not to revoke the bank's license in the state.

U.S. prosecutors said the bank helped clients deceive U.S. tax authorities by concealing assets in illegal, undeclared bank accounts, in a conspiracy that spanned decades, and in one case began more than a century ago.

"This case shows that no financial institution, no matter its size or global reach, is above the law," Holder said at a news conference in Washington.

[SheungWan]

Yeah right Eric! If you call zero jail time and only paying a fine at a fraction of total profits from illegal activities as not being above the law; what a joke. What would happen to individuals running such a scheme on a smaller scale? Years in the klinck I bet.

Correct spelling is 'clink'. The original Clink Prison is in the borough of Southwark and just around the corner from the Globe on the South Bank of the Thames. The Clink was situated nearby to the 27 brothels operated by the Bishop of Winchester. No longer there unfortunately and the site now occupied by the Tate Modern Museum. Very heavy fines levied for spreading venereal disease either by the ladies or the clients. An excellent money-spinner in its day (the houses of ill-repute that is) only to be closed down by Henry VIII. http://www.clink.co.uk/ The Clink remains. A great place to visit. PS plenty of geezers in Thailand can tell you how to avoid taxes back home.

[mccw]

Was some one saying something about no rigging earlier?

""

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European Union antitrust regulators charged Europe's biggest bank HSBC, U.S. peer JPMorgan and France's Credit Agricole on Tuesday with rigging financial benchmarks linked to the euro, exposing them to potential fines.

The European Commission also said it would charge broker ICAP soon for suspected manipulation of the yen Libor financial benchmark.

U.S. and European regulators have so far handed down some $6 billion in fines to 10 banks and brokerages for rigging the London interbank offered rate (Libor) and its euro cousin Euribor while prosecutors have also charged 16 men with fraud-related offences.

""

From reutures news app

Not crying- just raising awareness.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[mccw]

Oops- quite a miss calculation that:

"""

The EIA has cut its original estimate of recoverable shale oil reserves in California's much-hyped Monterey shale play by 96%, the L.A. Times' Louis Sahagun reported late Tuesday.

The agency now says there are just 600 million barrels of recoverable crude — as much as Bolivia. Previously the agency had said there were up to 13.7 billion recoverable barrels.

"""

- from biz insider app.

What does that say about the wider US energy story?

Over hyped or what?

[Naam]

What does that say about the wider US energy story?

Over hyped or what?

overhyped^10! the EIA has back-pedalled all its ridiculous estimates on shale oil reserves. only a year ago it was "in 2017 the U.S. will export crude" and this is the latest picture from that all-knowing organisation:

[SheungWan]

Was some one saying something about no rigging earlier?

""

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European Union antitrust regulators charged Europe's biggest bank HSBC, U.S. peer JPMorgan and France's Credit Agricole on Tuesday with rigging financial benchmarks linked to the euro, exposing them to potential fines.

The European Commission also said it would charge broker ICAP soon for suspected manipulation of the yen Libor financial benchmark.

U.S. and European regulators have so far handed down some $6 billion in fines to 10 banks and brokerages for rigging the London interbank offered rate (Libor) and its euro cousin Euribor while prosecutors have also charged 16 men with fraud-related offences.

""

From reutures news app

Not crying- just raising awareness.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Attempted collusion shifts are usually exceedingly small and are magnified for the traders involved through leverage. Any estimated shifts would be dwarfed by the drop in trading costs and access to markets by the retail trader. However, day traders in say the FX market who take magnified bets on the movement of pips 'should' be able to spot from their charts any pattern of accentuated movements around particular times of the day, but they would be usually rather small bumps.

[midas]

Was some one saying something about no rigging earlier?

""

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European Union antitrust regulators charged Europe's biggest bank HSBC, U.S. peer JPMorgan and France's Credit Agricole on Tuesday with rigging financial benchmarks linked to the euro, exposing them to potential fines.

The European Commission also said it would charge broker ICAP soon for suspected manipulation of the yen Libor financial benchmark.

U.S. and European regulators have so far handed down some $6 billion in fines to 10 banks and brokerages for rigging the London interbank offered rate (Libor) and its euro cousin Euribor while prosecutors have also charged 16 men with fraud-related offences.

""

From reutures news app

Not crying- just raising awareness.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Talking about Brussels, there are more than just a few people asking what is going on here.

Belgium has an extra $20,000.00 per person to buy these ?

Foreign demand for US Treasuries falls but Belgium strong buyer

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/15/usa-economy-capital-idUSL1N0O117Z20140515

[SheungWan]

Was some one saying something about no rigging earlier?

""

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European Union antitrust regulators charged Europe's biggest bank HSBC, U.S. peer JPMorgan and France's Credit Agricole on Tuesday with rigging financial benchmarks linked to the euro, exposing them to potential fines.

The European Commission also said it would charge broker ICAP soon for suspected manipulation of the yen Libor financial benchmark.

U.S. and European regulators have so far handed down some $6 billion in fines to 10 banks and brokerages for rigging the London interbank offered rate (Libor) and its euro cousin Euribor while prosecutors have also charged 16 men with fraud-related offences.

""

From reutures news app

Not crying- just raising awareness.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Talking about Brussels, there are more than just a few people asking what is going on here.

Belgium has an extra $20,000.00 per person to buy these ?

Foreign demand for US Treasuries falls but Belgium strong buyer

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/15/usa-economy-capital-idUSL1N0O117Z20140515

There's no knowing what Belgians might do fortified by some glasses of Liffe beer and Ardennes pate.

[Naam]

The U.S. Shale Oil Miracle Disappears

May. 25, 2014 4:48 AM ET

The U.S. shale oil "miracle" has about as much believability left as Jimmy Swaggart. Just today, we learned that the EIA has placed a hefty downward revision on its estimate of the amount of recoverable oil in the #1 shale reserve in the U.S., the Monterey in California.

As recently as yesterday, the much-publicized Monterey formation accounted for nearly two-thirds of all technically-recoverable U.S. shale oil resources.

But by this morning? The EIA now estimates these reserves to be 96% lower than it previously claimed. Yes, you read that right: 96% lower. As in only 4% of the original estimate is now thought to be technically-recoverable at today's prices.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2236353-the-u-s-shale-oil-miracle-disappears?ifp=0

[mccw]

Quite a sizable chunk of money:

""

A record £23.9bn has been collected through investigations by taxmen over the last year, official figures have revealed.

The total was an increase of £3.2bn on the previous 12-month period and £9bn on three years ago.

HM Revenue and Customs said it was nearly £1 billion above the target set by Chancellor George Osborne in his 2013 autumn statement.

More than £8bn has been raked in from large business, £1bn from criminals and £2.7bn through tackling avoidance schemes in the courts.

"""

- sky news app

[NeverSure]

Cheery outlook from one UK gov. adviser:

"""

High property prices will wipe out the British middle class within the next 30 years, according to a UK government advisor. He says society will be left with a tiny elite and a huge sprawling proletariat.

The really scary thing is if in the next 30 years house prices rise as much as they have done in the last 30 years, then the average house in Britain will cost 1.2 million (US$2 million), said David Boyle, a British author and a government advisor who is a fellow of the New Economics Foundation.

According to Boyle, who spoke at the Hay Festival of Literature and the Arts, most representatives from the traditional middle class wont be able to afford a house because wages will fail to keep up with huge price increases.

"We wont own our own homes, we wont be able to afford it, he said. We cheered the rise of property prices not realizing that it would destroy, if not our own lives, but the lives of our children.

He added that in order to pay rent, representatives from the traditional middle class will have to take on several jobs. As a result, they wont have time for any hobbies, Boyle predicted.

Nobody in society will have the kind of space in their lives, space in their homes, space in their careers for any kind of culture at all, because we will be having three or four jobs to make ends meet, said Boyle.

"""

-from RT app

I don't believe that. Sure, if things continued in a straight line it would be true, but it can't.

If prices got that high, people would stop buying. Full stop.

If prices got that high, investors wouldn't buy because the average person couldn't afford to pay enough rent to justify the investment. On my rentals, I'm always pretty close if I figure 50% of rent money goes to expenses. That's without a mortgage with interest to pay.

Expenses include a vacancy factor, 10% to a rental agency to manage it, taxes, insurance including liability insurance as a landlord, repairs and maintenance, and etc. It works out pretty close.

I want my rentals to double in price while I own them, not before I buy them, LOL. If the value of my rentals had been double I wouldn't have bought them, and if they doubled while I own them, I'd have to sell them because I could do better with that much money.

People can't afford to pay double rent unless overall inflation doubles their incomes. There are major housing crashes around the world from time to time, and usually they are immediately preceeded by a great runup in price until people can't afford them.

Up to you.

[mccw]

"Up to you"

Up to me what?

Anyhow, I can see what you are saying. But I also theorise that rents can go up more as people still have disposable income and the house supply shortage will force rents up probably since housing is such an essential part of life. Probably get more sharers and a continuation of the subdividing to smaller units that has already been going on for a decade at least. Simply not enough supply. Not like the states or Spain for example. UK totally different kettle of fish.

Availability of credit is key.

Could be a short term pull back at the next credit crunch.

Probably coming some time next year I reckon. So personally I'm selling up now while the goings good.

Hopefully can rebuy and ride the next wave up.

If not and I am wrong then no matter; there is still money to be made subdividing existing properties if one has the eye to which will particular project can work. It's amazing how two houses can be priced the same but one can make a developer a hundred grand while another is only good for living in as is.

Also a factor is that there is so much cash floating around the world that people just want something physical to put it in even if rental returns are rubbish- proof in all the major capital cities globally right now. There is a shortage of physical compared to the amount of cash in the global system. As well as individuals- Funds can and will buy up even more. If there is more printing and currencies take knocks further- which I think is almost a certainty - then the demand for physical will increase yet further.

I can see both side the argument. But I think uk property is still a good bet compared to what else is available.

Thai land is good too if you have the means to hold it. Chiang Mai in particular over next 10- 30 years as waves of retirees want to move out of Bangkok to a nice civilised cooler location.

Just my two bob

Regards

[mccw]

I do doubt it be so extreme as the article.

But I do think that as the retired generation die and sell or pass on property- a huge amount of that equity / value / wealth will be consumed by the state through taxes in UK and rest of the west. Basically my generation by retirement age 30-40 years from now will likely be much less well off than the current generation of retirees. The ones after that may have some hope if new tech takes off which we can't imagine now. Still - the resource to population growth outlook looks pretty grim.

Not sure how much long this system can go on for. ...

If the ice melts quicker than expected then all is going to be very different; did anybody see that NASA report about the ice from the antartic west sheet is 100 % sure to melt- in 200 years they calculate = 12feet just from this one piece. So only 50 or 100 year who knows. 50years might be past some of your life times but not mine hopefully. Definitely not my kids. Whole another ball game coming just around the corner.

[mccw]

A couple of interesting facts from biz insider piece:

"In the last two years china produced more cement than USA did in the whole of the 20th century"

They also speculate that Chinese disposable income will triple by 3030.

That will be good news for Thailand economy generally and property prices here

[mccw]

A couple of interesting facts from biz insider piece:

"In the last two years china produced more cement than USA did in the whole of the 20th century"

They also speculate that Chinese disposable income will triple by 3030.

That will be good news for Thailand economy generally and property prices here

[SheungWan]

A couple of interesting facts from biz insider piece:

"In the last two years china produced more cement than USA did in the whole of the 20th century"

They also speculate that Chinese disposable income will triple by 3030.

That will be good news for Thailand economy generally and property prices here

3030?

[mccw]

A couple of interesting facts from biz insider piece:

"In the last two years china produced more cement than USA did in the whole of the 20th century"

They also speculate that Chinese disposable income will triple by 3030.

That will be good news for Thailand economy generally and property prices here

[mccw]

2030

And sorry double post. Something went wrong with net saying time out n the gone through in multiples by the look of it

[MJP]

Cheery outlook from one UK gov. adviser:

"""

High property prices will wipe out the British middle class within the next 30 years, according to a UK government advisor. He says society will be left with a tiny elite and a huge sprawling proletariat.

The really scary thing is if in the next 30 years house prices rise as much as they have done in the last 30 years, then the average house in Britain will cost 1.2 million (US$2 million), said David Boyle, a British author and a government advisor who is a fellow of the New Economics Foundation.

According to Boyle, who spoke at the Hay Festival of Literature and the Arts, most representatives from the traditional middle class wont be able to afford a house because wages will fail to keep up with huge price increases.

"We wont own our own homes, we wont be able to afford it, he said. We cheered the rise of property prices not realizing that it would destroy, if not our own lives, but the lives of our children.

He added that in order to pay rent, representatives from the traditional middle class will have to take on several jobs. As a result, they wont have time for any hobbies, Boyle predicted.

Nobody in society will have the kind of space in their lives, space in their homes, space in their careers for any kind of culture at all, because we will be having three or four jobs to make ends meet, said Boyle.

"""

-from RT app

I don't believe that. Sure, if things continued in a straight line it would be true, but it can't.

If prices got that high, people would stop buying. Full stop.

If prices got that high, investors wouldn't buy because the average person couldn't afford to pay enough rent to justify the investment. On my rentals, I'm always pretty close if I figure 50% of rent money goes to expenses. That's without a mortgage with interest to pay.

Expenses include a vacancy factor, 10% to a rental agency to manage it, taxes, insurance including liability insurance as a landlord, repairs and maintenance, and etc. It works out pretty close.

I want my rentals to double in price while I own them, not before I buy them, LOL. If the value of my rentals had been double I wouldn't have bought them, and if they doubled while I own them, I'd have to sell them because I could do better with that much money.

People can't afford to pay double rent unless overall inflation doubles their incomes. There are major housing crashes around the world from time to time, and usually they are immediately preceeded by a great runup in price until people can't afford them.

Up to you.

You have to live in Britain to understand this national mental disorder over ever increasing house prices. A housing bubble is the UK economy. All the printy printy and low IR's and government bailouts have thus have prevented a real correction. That and the fact that the previous bubble has conditioned the developers to sit on land banks and hold them back to limit supply.

Planning is a nightmare now, brownfield and this damn ecology nonsense over "rare" species of critter or weed are also limiting supply, stalling projects.

Whole thing's a mess.

Rather than build that pointless High Speed 2 rail link between London and Birmingham to shorten the journey time by 20 minutes for the cost of countless £billions, we really need to build public housing, yes that's right, council houses again.

Honestly, British society is falling apart now between the haves (boomer generation BTL slumlords who generally evade tax) and the have nots, the renters stuck in an endless cycle of dead money going after endless debt.

The housing market has failed in the UK.

[impulse]

They also speculate that Chinese disposable income will triple by 3030.

That will be good news for Thailand economy generally and property prices here

For income to triple in 16 years is a 7% annual rate, compounded.

They'll have more money, but be able to buy even less with it at the rate their real estate prices are escalating.

In fact, if you look at their GDP growth, take into account how much of it is real estate development, and factor in the inflation rate of that real estate, it's hard to see much real growth at all.

Especially if you were to net out all the construction from the last 15 years that gets torn down each year without ever being occupied, much less turning a profit. Because the construction was ill conceived, poorly done or the developers are in another country with different faces, different passports and all the funds (no finger print database so all you need is a nose job).

Edited June 7, 2014 by impulse

[mccw]

MJP

I would vote for you;

But only if you promise to give the new council houses to reward hard workers, low and medium income workers (maybe eligible after 3 years of not claiming benefits) rather than the bone idle layabouts and irresponsible by choice.

[mccw]

The available council housing stock could be much better utilised by giving properties in the cities to workers and send the ones who refuse to work up north and make them share many to house with other scrubbers. Let them work the land self sufficiency style or loose cash handouts. Or let them stay in farming areas and force them to do the seasonal harvests at least.

Or better yet make an army run civil construction corp and get the unemployed building houses and infrastructure at a fraction of the cost all these private companies charge. 6 months on the dole and if not taken work no option to keep claiming- it's take a job or be assigned one.

[MJP]

MJP

I would vote for you;

But only if you promise to give the new council houses to reward hard workers, low and medium income workers (maybe eligible after 3 years of not claiming benefits) rather than the bone idle layabouts and irresponsible by choice.

It's the working people that need them. It's working people I'm on about.

I run a demolition crew in the UK at the moment. A skilled demolition driver and operative with full asbestos supervisor ticket, CCDO excavator >15m demo ticket and first aid, 30 years experience is on £9/hour. These boys have been crawling round on their hands and knees picking up asbestos until 9pm at night and the firm refuses them overtime, as in they don't even get paid for these extra hours.

They typically pay £850 a month just in rent (south east) and after tax and costs these boys are just going deeper into debt. Many suffer depression.

One of the bosses went into London last week with a mate and spent £1800 on lunch for the two of them.

UK's lost its way.

[mccw]

That's harsh,

That's what I mean. These guys your talking about probably have to pay private landlords for just rooms in shared houses. Not the landlords fault the systems got this way- the landlord likely has a mountain of debt that needs servicing too and only making a profit off 1 or 2 rooms after all costs. Often renting out rooms in thier own house. Regularly getting screwed by the law protecting non payers over the home owner. Gov paying the non payers legal costs but not the other side.

Anyway point is working mans have to pay market rates out thier own pocket; while the unemployed (mostly by choice) get free room rent/ paid by government, or even entire free flat or house. Even worse in the cities most aren't even English to start with. Just rock up with a big family and get a free house. While people who been working hard thier whole lives struggle to get by.

It ain't right.

[MJP]

That's harsh,

That's what I mean. These guys your talking about probably have to pay private landlords for just rooms in shared houses. Not the landlords fault the systems got this way- the landlord likely has a mountain of debt that needs servicing too and only making a profit off 1 or 2 rooms after all costs. Often renting out rooms in thier own house. Regularly getting screwed by the law protecting non payers over the home owner. Gov paying the non payers legal costs but not the other side.

Anyway point is working mans have to pay market rates out thier own pocket; while the unemployed (mostly by choice) get free room rent/ paid by government, or even entire free flat or house. Even worse in the cities most aren't even English to start with. Just rock up with a big family and get a free house. While people who been working hard thier whole lives struggle to get by.

It ain't right.

Yup. It's a mess.

As one of the boys said, "the UK's upside down".

As well as English blokes I have Romanian and Polish fellas on the crew. Fantastic guys, but you should hear them on the realities of the UK. It's harsh out there.