Thailand's Economic And Monetary Conditions

[richard10365]

I'm working on a project for my macroeconomics class at Payap University and thought what I found in the Bank of Thailand's (BOT) website would be interesting to discuss here.

The report talks about the economy declining at the end of 2008 but the BOT, at present, considers the economy sound. The supporting slides show graphically and a bit clearer the state of the economy but what it doesn't do is speculate on the direction BOT think's it will go during 2009.

Given current facts, I would like to invite the speculators to discuss the report and supporting slides.

This is my source for the slides:

http://www.bot.or.th/English/EconomicCondi...s_montlhly.aspx

Economic_and_Monetary_Conditions_for_Dec_2008_and_Year_2008.pdf

Thailand_Macro_Assessment_30_Jan_09.pdf

Table_Economic_and_Monetary_Conditions_Dec_2008_pt2.pdf

Table_Economic_and_Monetary_Conditions_Dec_2008_pt3.pdf

Table_Economic_and_Monetary_Conditions_Dec_2008.pdf

Edited February 6, 2009 by richard10365

[richard10365]

I guess the slides were a bit too complicated for ThaiVisa members.

[Pakeha]

I guess the slides were a bit too complicated for ThaiVisa members.

Wait until Naam sees them...

[Naam]

I guess the slides were a bit too complicated for ThaiVisa members.

Wait until Naam sees them...

[Naam]

I'm working on a project for my macroeconomics class at Payap University and thought what I found in the Bank of Thailand's (BOT) website would be interesting to discuss here.

The report talks about the economy declining at the end of 2008 but the BOT, at present, considers the economy sound. The supporting slides show graphically and a bit clearer the state of the economy but what it doesn't do is speculate on the direction BOT think's it will go during 2009.

Given current facts, I would like to invite the speculators to discuss the report and supporting slides.

This is my source for the slides:

http://www.bot.or.th/English/EconomicCondi...s_montlhly.aspx

care to have a look at posting # 163?

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thai-Economi...05#entry2504705

[hhgz]

"I'm working on a project for my macroeconomics class at Payap University and thought what I found in the Bank of Thailand's (BOT) website would be interesting to discuss here....I guess the slides were a bit too complicated for ThaiVisa members."

Nope. We don't want to do your homework for you.

[richard10365]

Nope. We don't want to do your homework for you.

See post number 2 of this thread.

Edited February 6, 2009 by richard10365

[richard10365]

I'm working on a project for my macroeconomics class at Payap University and thought what I found in the Bank of Thailand's (BOT) website would be interesting to discuss here.

The report talks about the economy declining at the end of 2008 but the BOT, at present, considers the economy sound. The supporting slides show graphically and a bit clearer the state of the economy but what it doesn't do is speculate on the direction BOT think's it will go during 2009.

Given current facts, I would like to invite the speculators to discuss the report and supporting slides.

This is my source for the slides:

http://www.bot.or.th/English/EconomicCondi...s_montlhly.aspx

care to have a look at posting # 163?

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Thai-Economi...05#entry2504705

I did start to read that thread, but by the 2nd page the comments seemed to be going off on a tanget and I didn't feel like reading the other 3 pages of witty remarks that had little to do with the subject.

[cclub75]

The report talks about the economy declining at the end of 2008 but the BOT, at present, considers the economy sound. The supporting slides show graphically and a bit clearer the state of the economy but what it doesn't do is speculate on the direction BOT think's it will go during 2009.

You point out the difference between the hard data... and the BOT's logorrhea about the "sound economy".

Reminds me the "sound banking system" and the "resilient economy" of Bush, Paulson, Bernanke and McCain in july, august and even in september 2008, the very same day of Lehman collapse...

So you should know better.

The data are clear : MPI in the toilets, exports down, trade deficit, current account deficit, net services worsening in the balance of payment, budget deficit, tax collections seriously down, bad GDP report on Q3 2008, private investment down, FDI down, etc.

So the BOT can put its bullshit like honey on a slice of bread... it doesn't make a difference. It's just grotesque.

I invite you to peruse ThaiCrisis where you'll find some real analysis linked to charts and hard data.

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/category/economy/all-charts/

Edited February 6, 2009 by cclub75

[Naam]

I did start to read that thread, but by the 2nd page the comments seemed to be going off on a tanget and I didn't feel like reading the other 3 pages of witty remarks that had little to do with the subject.

although you are with Thaivisa for nearly four years you are obviously not aware that only a few people are willing/interested to discuss the dry facts and figures you provided. the majority is focussed on the exchange rate of their home/income currency vs. THB. as a bait to attract more readers and contributors you should have selected besides "BOT" also "THB" with a comment such as "Economy and Baht going to crash?" to receive interesting and comprehensive comments like

-yeah

-for sure

-the racists should suffer

-we Farangs will rule again

-the result will be terrible for "them"

-doom doom doom and gloom gloom gloom is knocking at the door

as well as interest raising questions which can be extensively debated

-why is Beer Chang expensive?

-shouldn't the National Parks charge farangs the same entry fee for Farangs and Thais?

-shall i change my [insert currency] now or on september 15th?

-why do thai banks charge ATM fees when the economy is in doldrums?

[cclub75]

Let's forget "index" for a while and other "surveys", and BOT's delirium. And let's talk hard data :

VAT collections.

-18 % in january, y-o-y.

This summarizes the whole situation. ;-)

[Pakeha]

I did start to read that thread, but by the 2nd page the comments seemed to be going off on a tanget and I didn't feel like reading the other 3 pages of witty remarks that had little to do with the subject.

although you are with Thaivisa for nearly four years you are obviously not aware that only a few people are willing/interested to discuss the dry facts and figures you provided. the majority is focussed on the exchange rate of their home/income currency vs. THB. as a bait to attract more readers and contributors you should have selected besides "BOT" also "THB" with a comment such as "Economy and Baht going to crash?" to receive interesting and comprehensive comments like

-yeah

-for sure

-the racists should suffer

-we Farangs will rule again

-the result will be terrible for "them"

-doom doom doom and gloom gloom gloom is knocking at the door

as well as interest raising questions which can be extensively debated

-why is Beer Chang expensive?

-shouldn't the National Parks charge farangs the same entry fee for Farangs and Thais?

-shall i change my [insert currency] now or on september 15th?

-why do thai banks charge ATM fees when the economy is in doldrums?

Well that pretty much rules me out of this topic because it appears all my questions have been asked

[thaimate]

I did start to read that thread, but by the 2nd page the comments seemed to be going off on a tanget and I didn't feel like reading the other 3 pages of witty remarks that had little to do with the subject.

although you are with Thaivisa for nearly four years you are obviously not aware that only a few people are willing/interested to discuss the dry facts and figures you provided. the majority is focussed on the exchange rate of their home/income currency vs. THB. as a bait to attract more readers and contributors you should have selected besides "BOT" also "THB" with a comment such as "Economy and Baht going to crash?" to receive interesting and comprehensive comments like

-yeah

-for sure

-the racists should suffer

-we Farangs will rule again

-the result will be terrible for "them"

-doom doom doom and gloom gloom gloom is knocking at the door

as well as interest raising questions which can be extensively debated

-why is Beer Chang expensive?

-shouldn't the National Parks charge farangs the same entry fee for Farangs and Thais?

-shall i change my [insert currency] now or on september 15th?

-why do thai banks charge ATM fees when the economy is in doldrums?

Naam

what you must understand is that most of us have come to live in Thailand to get away from work and having to think to hard .so if we just worry about how far our money is going to go then you must excuse us . not all of us have your large klingon brain or if indeed we do we chose to no longer use it on subjects that are more taxing than ,whats for dinner tonight or i hope chang isnt going up in price soon.

still please carry on enlightening us as to what direction the thai economy is going and wether it will affect our bank balances.

all the best.

Edited February 7, 2009 by thaimate

[Naam]

Naam

what you must understand is that most of us have come to live in Thailand to get away from work and having to think to hard .so if we just worry about how far our money is going to go then you must excuse us . not all of us have your large klingon brain or if indeed we do we chose to no longer use it on subjects that are more taxing than ,whats for dinner tonight or i hope chang isnt going up in price soon.

still please carry on enlightening us as to what direction the thai economy is going and wether it will affect our bank balances.

all the best.

T-Mate, reading my posting again i can see what you mean and i [very humbly ] apologise if it caused some misunderstanding. please believe me that it was in no way meant derogatory. having the lion share of my expenses in Baht i am interested too what the future holds for us. but i am neither capable nor willing to make any forecasts. a lot of participants seem to be more knowledgeable and qualified although the overly optimistic ones as well as the doom&gloomers produced until now nothing but refined bullcrap².

[henryalleman]

Retirees especially the ones who's main income coming from abroad and therefore the currency rate has an great impact on their life are of course concerned about where the Thai economy is going to. It can be an selfish attitude that most of them are worried about the present rate of the Thai Baht more than the anything else. Because they where dreaming to spend the winter of their lives in reasonable comfortable lifestyle,with some little extras and this moment they are worried that maybe the litte extras are no longer affordable and maybe later even the comfortable lifestyle is at risk.

Edited February 7, 2009 by henryalleman

[richard10365]

Interesting comments so far. I hope one day if I study enough I can be as witty and clever as some of the Thaivisa members.

From the people TV members spread around Thailand, do you know if local factories are shutting down, laying off or having work stoppages?

Lamphun, in Northern Thailand near Chiang Mai, is one of them cities that can offer industries a special tax break if they set up business in their city. From people I am talking to, there are work stoppages and layoffs happening there.

[cmsally]

Interesting comments so far. I hope one day if I study enough I can be as witty and clever as some of the Thaivisa members.

From the people TV members spread around Thailand, do you know if local factories are shutting down, laying off or having work stoppages?

Lamphun, in Northern Thailand near Chiang Mai, is one of them cities that can offer industries a special tax break if they set up business in their city. From people I am talking to, there are work stoppages and layoffs happening there.

I haven't been reading much into the official figures and reports, but you are correct in that Lamphun (Nikhom) have laid off many workers and some are on 3 day weeks as there is not enough work to employ them full time. A few years ago it was very difficult to find employees but from what I have seen in the past few months there are people actively going around searching for work and finding it difficult if not impossible to find.