Thaksin Reportedly Sought Royal Pardon

[Journalist]

There are more and more analysts now saying Thaksin is a man of the past and looking forward to future developments in Thai politcs. An interesting change in direction in politcal analysis.

-Absorption of the TRT upcountry network

-Continued marginalisation and cornering of opposition figures

-Consolidation of satellite parties into the Democrats

-Renaming of the consolidated parties as 'Monarchy Party' (or a similar catchy name)

-Call General Election

-One party state. (with that governing party composed of factions)

[jayboy]

There are more and more analysts now saying Thaksin is a man of the past and looking forward to future developments in Thai politcs. An interesting change in direction in politcal analysis.

I think that's right although only a fool would write him off altogether.His influence on Thai politics is however permanent, not least given the adoption of many of his policies by other parties.However in addition to Thaksin's ebbing fortunes surely the way Abhisit is consolidating his position is also relevant.Only yesterday the FT reported Abhisit's sensible comments on reforming the world's financial institutions specifically the IMF to ensure a continued flow of trade and services, as opposed to just raising capital.How long since a Thai leader had this kind of attention on the world stage.His political capital -ok from a lowish base - is growing fast.We know the Palace is fond of him.Leaders like Gordon Brown and others are impressed, as I'm sure Obama will be when he meets Abhisit in London next month.This isn't just a schoolgirlish fan letter.My point is that Abhisit has the chance to transcend the rather murky origins of his current position.

[Plus]

-Absorption of the TRT upcountry network

TRT didn't have its own upcountry network, it took in parties that owned it, like Chavalit's NAP and Newin's faction

-Continued marginalisation and cornering of opposition figures

Really? Leaderless, rudderless PTP is going down on its own, without any help from Democrats.

-Consolidation of satellite parties into the Democrats

I doubt Democrats will ever absorb smaller parties the way TRT did. Newin is very busy building his own Bhum Jai brand, he won't agree to be a junior exec in Democrat party, ever.

-Renaming of the consolidated parties as 'Monarchy Party' (or a similar catchy name)

What's this obsession with the monarchy? It's not 2005-2006 anymore, every one dropped the monarchy card long time ago.

-One party state. (with that governing party composed of factions)

Under Abhisit Democrats would never try to be a juggernaut ala Thaksin's TRT

[Journalist]

This then:

-Democrats win an election in 2011 and serve a full term in office.

-Abhisit signals an intention to stand down in 2015 and takes a position as a Professor of Political Science at alma mater Oxford.

-Newin becomes new PM.

-In 2017, a pardon is given to Thaksin Shinawatra, who has spent the previous years in exile.

-Newin stands down after discovery of a $50 million trust with him as beneficiary. He is prosecuted under laws promulgated by Abhisit.

-Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter becomes leader of an urban-based political party with liberal leanings and is elected prime minister in 2020.

[hammered]

There are more and more analysts now saying Thaksin is a man of the past and looking forward to future developments in Thai politcs. An interesting change in direction in politcal analysis.

I think that's right although only a fool would write him off altogether.His influence on Thai politics is however permanent, not least given the adoption of many of his policies by other parties.However in addition to Thaksin's ebbing fortunes surely the way Abhisit is consolidating his position is also relevant.Only yesterday the FT reported Abhisit's sensible comments on reforming the world's financial institutions specifically the IMF to ensure a continued flow of trade and services, as opposed to just raising capital.How long since a Thai leader had this kind of attention on the world stage.His political capital -ok from a lowish base - is growing fast.We know the Palace is fond of him.Leaders like Gordon Brown and others are impressed, as I'm sure Obama will be when he meets Abhisit in London next month.This isn't just a schoolgirlish fan letter.My point is that Abhisit has the chance to transcend the rather murky origins of his current position.

We should indeed always be careful of what analysts say. They to a man agreed that Samak had cemented his position when he kept Anupong as military chief and gave a huge allowance to every general. Days later........

Abhisit does seem to be taking the initiative after this opportunity fell into his lap. Interesting to wtahc him manouver and his opponents too. To date he seems to have the upper hand at every move.

[Plus]

I think coalition governments with Democrats playing major, but not dominant role, is what will happen in the next few years.

Thaksin will attempt to make another comeback by aligning his PTP with Newin or someone else but ultimately fail. His proxy party will shrink to being an insignificant player, being overruled and outvoted on many sensitive issues.

They couldn't save his ass when they controlled the govt for nearly a year, there's a zero chance they'll save him in the future.

[Ricardo]

This then:

-Democrats win an election in 2011 and serve a full term in office.

-Abhisit signals an intention to stand down in 2015 and takes a position as a Professor of Political Science at alma mater Oxford.

-Newin becomes new PM.

-In 2017, a pardon is given to Thaksin Shinawatra, who has spent the previous years in exile.

-Newin stands down after discovery of a $50 million trust with him as beneficiary. He is prosecuted under laws promulgated by Abhisit.

-Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter becomes leader of an urban-based political party with liberal leanings and is elected prime minister in 2020.

Please can I borrow your crystal-ball, as I need to check up on there the Baht is going, and which number to pick in the village-lottery !

[Old Man River]

There are more and more analysts now saying Thaksin is a man of the past and looking forward to future developments in Thai politcs. An interesting change in direction in politcal analysis.

I think that's right although only a fool would write him off altogether.His influence on Thai politics is however permanent, not least given the adoption of many of his policies by other parties.However in addition to Thaksin's ebbing fortunes surely the way Abhisit is consolidating his position is also relevant.Only yesterday the FT reported Abhisit's sensible comments on reforming the world's financial institutions specifically the IMF to ensure a continued flow of trade and services, as opposed to just raising capital.How long since a Thai leader had this kind of attention on the world stage.His political capital -ok from a lowish base - is growing fast.We know the Palace is fond of him.Leaders like Gordon Brown and others are impressed, as I'm sure Obama will be when he meets Abhisit in London next month.This isn't just a schoolgirlish fan letter.My point is that Abhisit has the chance to transcend the rather murky origins of his current position.

While I fully agree on your comments about Abhisit, call me a fool, but you can write Thaksin off. The Thai military is much too strong and they will never let him back into a situation where he can, once again, assume power. Whether one agrees with Thaksin or not is a different issue, but as far as Thai politics is concerned, he is finished.

[jayboy]

There are more and more analysts now saying Thaksin is a man of the past and looking forward to future developments in Thai politcs. An interesting change in direction in politcal analysis.

I think that's right although only a fool would write him off altogether.His influence on Thai politics is however permanent, not least given the adoption of many of his policies by other parties.However in addition to Thaksin's ebbing fortunes surely the way Abhisit is consolidating his position is also relevant.Only yesterday the FT reported Abhisit's sensible comments on reforming the world's financial institutions specifically the IMF to ensure a continued flow of trade and services, as opposed to just raising capital.How long since a Thai leader had this kind of attention on the world stage.His political capital -ok from a lowish base - is growing fast.We know the Palace is fond of him.Leaders like Gordon Brown and others are impressed, as I'm sure Obama will be when he meets Abhisit in London next month.This isn't just a schoolgirlish fan letter.My point is that Abhisit has the chance to transcend the rather murky origins of his current position.

While I fully agree on your comments about Abhisit, call me a fool, but you can write Thaksin off. The Thai military is much too strong and they will never let him back into a situation where he can, once again, assume power. Whether one agrees with Thaksin or not is a different issue, but as far as Thai politics is concerned, he is finished.

Looking at your posts, characterised by sanity and common sense, I wouldn't dream of calling you that.You may very well be right.What I was trying to say is that Thaksin is something of a force of nature and I wouldn't write off his future or a come back.Remember despite his current predicament he still has the support of many millions of Thais.Remember also that there have been more surprising come backs in political history -Nixon and Churchill to name but two.

[Plus]

The argument that Thaksin is a force of nature signifying something bigger than one man aspirations is not new. It looked naive back in 2005-2006, it could have been promising with red movement last year, but now it looks completely bankrupt.

The only legacy he left is egg throwing mobs wheeping for the sound of his voice that no one takes seriously anymore.

[Old Man River]

There are more and more analysts now saying Thaksin is a man of the past and looking forward to future developments in Thai politcs. An interesting change in direction in politcal analysis.

I think that's right although only a fool would write him off altogether.His influence on Thai politics is however permanent, not least given the adoption of many of his policies by other parties.However in addition to Thaksin's ebbing fortunes surely the way Abhisit is consolidating his position is also relevant.Only yesterday the FT reported Abhisit's sensible comments on reforming the world's financial institutions specifically the IMF to ensure a continued flow of trade and services, as opposed to just raising capital.How long since a Thai leader had this kind of attention on the world stage.His political capital -ok from a lowish base - is growing fast.We know the Palace is fond of him.Leaders like Gordon Brown and others are impressed, as I'm sure Obama will be when he meets Abhisit in London next month.This isn't just a schoolgirlish fan letter.My point is that Abhisit has the chance to transcend the rather murky origins of his current position.

While I fully agree on your comments about Abhisit, call me a fool, but you can write Thaksin off. The Thai military is much too strong and they will never let him back into a situation where he can, once again, assume power. Whether one agrees with Thaksin or not is a different issue, but as far as Thai politics is concerned, he is finished.

Looking at your posts, characterised by sanity and common sense, I wouldn't dream of calling you that.You may very well be right.What I was trying to say is that Thaksin is something of a force of nature and I wouldn't write off his future or a come back.Remember despite his current predicament he still has the support of many millions of Thais.Remember also that there have been more surprising come backs in political history -Nixon and Churchill to name but two.

Thanks for the kind words.

I know I should never say never, but in this case, well, it is never. If Thaksin was 30 years old then maybe, but not at his age and not with the strength of the Thai military. I still think that in time Panthongtae will be someone to watch in Thai politics. I shudder at the thought, but he made a lot of friends when his dad was on top, the Shinawatra clan remains strong and Panthongtae is now being well educated in Thai politics.

[jayboy]

The argument that Thaksin is a force of nature signifying something bigger than one man aspirations is not new. It looked naive back in 2005-2006, it could have been promising with red movement last year, but now it looks completely bankrupt.

The only legacy he left is egg throwing mobs wheeping for the sound of his voice that no one takes seriously anymore.

You may well be right.

As to his legacy it's difficult to say but very recently the PM made some comments which suggest it might be more substantial than you suggest.The trouble with your position is that it really only becomes tenable if Thaksin morphs into a non person like Trotsky to the Stalinists.In that case it required the despatch of an axeman to Mexico City.Perhaps it will come to that, or at least a hired gun to Dubai.

[jbowman1993]

This can't be right, actually having a well thought out, non inflammatory conversation about politics on TV. Where is Koo to muck it all up again?

[brahmburgers]

as far as Thai politics is concerned, he is finished.

For the sake of Thailand's long road to healing, I surely hope so.

[sbk]

Post have been deleted. NO editorializing in posts containing news articles and lets drop the offensive hyperbole please. Further such posts will earn a formal warning.