Caution! Nasdaq, Dow, Sp, Nikkei, Hang Seng

[Harmonica]

Combine your QQQQ analysis with the support/R study of the Nasdaq composite -- The Qs are 100 top Nas companies -- the composite is the whole shabang; far more reliable for estimating -- therefore use both. Use the numbers I gave you on the Qs, then correlate the following.

Nasdaq composite major support band from 2,030 - 1,930 = 100 point spread where the fall could be arrested -- the core level of this support structure is @ 1932. This core level is like a concrete floor -- to break it is possible, of course and if so, that means big trouble for the prior uptrend.

200-day MA @ 1976 currently.

The odds that Nasdaq will deliver a rally starting somewhere between 2,030 and 1930 are 90%+

The odds that Nas will deliver a rally between now (2034) & 1976 are 30%.

The odds that Nas will deliver a rally @ 1976 are 50%.

The odds that Nas will deliver a rally @ 1950-1976 are 75%. The 200-day is well known to slingshot a market after being penetrated by a reasonable amount -- call it elasticity or whatever, but from market to market and stock to stock this is readily noticeable.

I know that tomorrow is a big day for you. Best of luck!

[~G~]

I know that tomorrow is a big day for you.  Best of luck! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Trader's prayer:

May the PC not crush when I change my stop,

May I will have the wisdom to place such a stop,

May I will be decisive enough to sell when profit was made,

or at least before all figures are painted in red.

[Harmonica]

Amen!

[jaidam]

Combine your QQQQ analysis with the support/R study of the Nasdaq composite -- The Qs are 100 top Nas companies -- the composite is the whole shabang; far more reliable for estimating -- therefore use both.  Use the numbers I gave you on the Qs, then correlate the following.

Nasdaq composite major support band from  2,030 - 1,930 = 100 point spread where the fall could be arrested -- the core level of this support structure is @ 1932. This core level is like a concrete floor -- to break it is possible, of course and if so, that means big trouble for the prior uptrend.

200-day MA @ 1976 currently.

The odds that Nasdaq will deliver a rally starting somewhere between 2,030 and 1930 are 90%+

The odds that Nas will deliver a rally between now (2034) & 1976 are 30%.

The odds that Nas will deliver a rally @ 1976 are 50%.

The odds that Nas will deliver a rally @ 1950-1976 are 75%.  The 200-day is well known to slingshot a market after being penetrated by a reasonable amount -- call it elasticity or whatever, but from market to market and stock to stock this is readily noticeable.

I know that tomorrow is a big day for you.  Best of luck! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What a load of horses##t.

If I want to lose all my cash I will be the first to contract you Mr.Harmonica.

For goodness sake why can you not see that your odds/analysis are no more meaningful than tea leaves.Do you also consult them???

Anybody serious about making money with the financial markets would do far better with CAREFUL stock selection.This involves taking lots of time poring over companies balance sheets, learning about future prospects and using data such as P/E ratios etc to discover whether a stock is cheap or overvalued.To let a computer tell you when to buy or sell is just amazing.Hang on. Baaahaaahaahaa.

In short dont follow this Harmonica mans advise.He will lose you your money.

Fundamentals,fundamentals and fundamentals.The 3 keys to making money.

As for me I retired at 25 and moved to LOS.Not by reading ####### tealeaves!!!!

[~G~]

Combine your QQQQ analysis with the support/R study of the Nasdaq composite -- The Qs are 100 top Nas companies -- the composite is the whole shabang; far more reliable for estimating -- therefore use both.  Use the numbers I gave you on the Qs, then correlate the following.

Nasdaq composite major support band from  2,030 - 1,930 = 100 point spread where the fall could be arrested -- the core level of this support structure is @ 1932. This core level is like a concrete floor -- to break it is possible, of course and if so, that means big trouble for the prior uptrend.

200-day MA @ 1976 currently.

The odds that Nasdaq will deliver a rally starting somewhere between 2,030 and 1930 are 90%+

The odds that Nas will deliver a rally between now (2034) & 1976 are 30%.

The odds that Nas will deliver a rally @ 1976 are 50%.

The odds that Nas will deliver a rally @ 1950-1976 are 75%.  The 200-day is well known to slingshot a market after being penetrated by a reasonable amount -- call it elasticity or whatever, but from market to market and stock to stock this is readily noticeable.

I know that tomorrow is a big day for you.  Best of luck!  

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What a load of horses##t.

If I want to lose all my cash I will be the first to contract you Mr.Harmonica.

For goodness sake why can you not see that your odds/analysis are no more meaningful than tea leaves.Do you also consult them???

Anybody serious about making money with the financial markets would do far better with CAREFUL stock selection.This involves taking lots of time poring over companies balance sheets, learning about future prospects and using data such as P/E ratios etc to discover whether a stock is cheap or overvalued.To let a computer tell you when to buy or sell is just amazing.Hang on. Baaahaaahaahaa.

In short dont follow this Harmonica mans advise.He will lose you your money.

Fundamentals,fundamentals and fundamentals.The 3 keys to making money.

As for me I retired at 25 and moved to LOS.Not by reading ####### tealeaves!!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Seems like we're going to have another round of tech. vs. fundamentals here....

Let me just say: Jai yen yen!

[TizMe]

Focus on time in the market, not timing the market.

Buy shares in quality companies, at a fair price, and be patient.

[Khun ?]

I expect a 20% gain on PXD this year. Do your own research.

[Harmonica]

Combine your QQQQ analysis with the support/R study of the Nasdaq composite -- The Qs are 100 top Nas companies -- the composite is the whole shabang; far more reliable for estimating -- therefore use both.  Use the numbers I gave you on the Qs, then correlate the following.

Nasdaq composite major support band from  2,030 - 1,930 = 100 point spread where the fall could be arrested -- the core level of this support structure is @ 1932. This core level is like a concrete floor -- to break it is possible, of course and if so, that means big trouble for the prior uptrend.

200-day MA @ 1976 currently.

The odds that Nasdaq will deliver a rally starting somewhere between 2,030 and 1930 are 90%+

The odds that Nas will deliver a rally between now (2034) & 1976 are 30%.

The odds that Nas will deliver a rally @ 1976 are 50%.

The odds that Nas will deliver a rally @ 1950-1976 are 75%.  The 200-day is well known to slingshot a market after being penetrated by a reasonable amount -- call it elasticity or whatever, but from market to market and stock to stock this is readily noticeable.

I know that tomorrow is a big day for you.  Best of luck!  

What a load of horses##t.

If I want to lose all my cash I will be the first to contract you Mr.Harmonica.

For goodness sake why can you not see that your odds/analysis are no more meaningful than tea leaves.Do you also consult them???

Anybody serious about making money with the financial markets would do far better with CAREFUL stock selection.This involves taking lots of time poring over companies balance sheets, learning about future prospects and using data such as P/E ratios etc to discover whether a stock is cheap or overvalued.To let a computer tell you when to buy or sell is just amazing.Hang on. Baaahaaahaahaa.

In short dont follow this Harmonica mans advise.He will lose you your money.

Fundamentals,fundamentals and fundamentals.The 3 keys to making money.

As for me I retired at 25 and moved to LOS.Not by reading ####### tealeaves!!!!

s s a j c k a

Why did the Moron on his way to the airport turn around and go back home? .... because he saw a sign that said, "Airport Left"

[Harmonica]

Fundamental occurrences, though hardly necessary and/or visible early in the start of a new trend--are a welcome sight nonetheless.

1. Not only has less money been going into stocks, but according to a January 27 New York Times article, a rare “outflow” of money from mutual funds has occurred: Through January 19, investors pulled out a net $3.2 billion from the sector, making it only the second time money has left mutual funds in the month of January in 15 years.

2. Insiders are pulling out of the market in droves -- no need to state what that means.

[taxexile]

2.  -- no need to state what that means.

yes there is.

some of us would love to have more of an understanding of the markets , but unfortunately everyone who plays the market talks in a strange language , like computer people , only worse.

maybe its done intentionally to keep outsiders out.

so how about some plain english ??

[Harmonica]

I expect a 20% gain on PXD this year. Do your own research.

Khun ?,

PXD could go to $40-41 or thereabouts; regardless, wherever it ends up, that will be the high for the DECADE!-- crash and burn thereafter! Will go belly-up in the next 2 years or so. Take profit now or SOON -- that's my advice -- no need for recrimination etc. -- its only advice, that's all --take the input in the spirit it is given, OK?

[Harmonica]

2.  -- no need to state what that means.

yes there is.

some of us would love to have more of an understanding of the markets , but unfortunately everyone who plays the market talks in a strange language , like computer people , only worse.

maybe its done intentionally to keep outsiders out.

so how about some plain english ??

My apologies, Tax -- if I do it again, just holler and I'll be happy to explain -- there was a time in 2000 when I posted similar stuff elsewhere warning folks to get out of the markets; stuff like "final call" etc. along with plain language explanations and I was then accused of being "condescending" because of the assumption that nobody understands tech. stuff.

I'll try, OK?

Clarifications follow

[Harmonica]

Fundamental occurrences, though hardly necessary and/or visible early in the start of a new  trend--are  a welcome sight nonetheless.

1.  Not only has less money been going into stocks, but according to a January 27 New York Times article, a rare “outflow” of money from mutual funds has occurred: Through January 19, investors pulled out a net $3.2 billion from the sector, making it only the second time money has left mutual funds in the month of January in 15 years.

2.  Insiders are pulling out of the market in droves -- no need to state what that means.

1. Mutual funds, as a category of funds, are funds entering the markets as a whole, are an important barometer of the health of the market in general -- when the general public is very enthusiastic about the future direction of the markets and economy, they tend to pump their savings etc. into these types of funds -- conversely when they are pessimistic about the future, they WITHDRAW large quantities of their funds from the markets and hold cash.

2. Insiders of Companies are execs and other fellows who are privy to all sorts of info that the gen public is not -- these people buy/sell stock well in advance of the general public, because they have a better view of the future direction of THEIR outfits. When the public catches on at a later date, these fellows reap huge profits as the masses propel the markets forward.

Both points 1 and 2 therefore ..... no fuel, how can the markets be propelled? By who? By what? etc. It takes BIG buying to drive a market forward (UP) -- whereas to go down, gravity alone will do it and BIG selling is not necessary to drive a market down.

Insider buys/sells is an indicator shown on MSN, thru' Microsoft Money, Yahoo (?) and many other sites, including stockcharts.com.

It is a useful barometer, but its greatest use is to warn about impending TURNING POINTS in the stock in question and/or the markets in general.

I'm in a big rush to moveout of my short-term rental at the moment -- if my explanations above seem disjointed, I'll try again tomorrow.

Regards

[Khun ?]

Ha,ha,ha

You need to go to a casino and play the colors black or red. Thats the only thing you are doing playing the Q's. Your a trader not an informed investor. I met very few traders that ever made a profit. Here is the site again of guy that worked the on the stock exchange for over 20 years and is a harvard grad. He plays the options professionaly. You can pick a few of his programs and depending how risky you want to be he will trade for you as he trades.

http://www.terrystips.com/stock_leaps.shtml

PXD is up about 20% this month for a good reason.

I expect a 20% gain on PXD this year. Do your own research.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Khun ?,

PXD could go to $40-41 or thereabouts; regardless, wherever it ends up, that will be the high for the DECADE!-- crash and burn thereafter! Will go belly-up in the next 2 years or so. Take profit now or SOON -- that's my advice -- no need for recrimination etc. -- its only advice, that's all --take the input in the spirit it is given, OK?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Harmonica]

>>>>>> Ha,ha,ha

You need to go to a casino and play the colors black or red. Thats the only thing you are doing playing the Q's. Your a trader not an informed investor. I met very few traders that ever made a profit. Here is the site again of guy that worked the on the stock exchange for over 20 years and is a harvard grad. He plays the options professionaly. You can pick a few of his programs and depending how risky you want to be he will trade for you as he trades.

http://www.terrystips.com/stock_leaps.shtml

PXD is up about 20% this month for a good reason. <<<<<<<<<<<<

I am glad you are having such a hearty laugh, amigo -- your enthusiasm is infectious, but I'm going to decline and reiterate -- START TAKING PROFIT NOW!!!!!

[ProThaiExpat]

While Harmonica needs no one to defend his technical approach, after all, there are as many rich men who made it by technical analysis as have made it with the fundamentals.

I have done the fundamental approach and lost heavily. Notwithstanding that, I still listen to them when they are talking about broad market trends. My days of betting on individual companies is over, there are too many examples of sound companies with superior management and P/E ratios that aren't doing well, take GM for example. Likewise, there are many superior funamental gurus working for large salaries at mutual funds that have lost their clients tons of money.

Khun doesn't know much about prbabilities or odds if he seriously can equate QQQQ investing to red and black betting on roulette. Imagine a roulette wheel that would have an annual high and low trading range!!!

I would like to also point out that there are literally millions of investors who don't agree with him.

I very much appreciate what Harmonica has added to this forum by his posts and his PMs. A knowledgeable technical analysis is a valuable asset to me and I am most appreciative.

My hat is off to anyone who has made a fortune in the stock market, you are a rare individual. What worked for you, ipso facto, doesn't necessarily mean it would work for others.

[Khun ?]

Prothaiexpat

thanks, that explains. GM the only major who does not have a hybrid on

the market and been losing market share for years. CEO just stated a few weeks ago they do not need to be in the hybrid market because americans still want SUV's and big gas guzzlers while borrowing 1.6 bil to fund theri retirement fund that they lost in the high tech bubble. Stick to guessing calls and puts and useing TA trying to guess each day what the crowd is doing. If it works for you fine but it is not investing it is trading, similar to poker. The trip to the casino would be more enjoyable than watching daily trading patterns in the market. I made 6 figures in the market in 04

while the little bit of money with one of these companies that write a weekly articles in a newspaper in pattaya each week lost 5 years in a row. They locked me into a long term investment which I would get about 10 cents on the dollar if I cashed out now, like I did on another fund they had me in. They claim to be the best in market analyzing also.

People that know how to invest do not come here trying to influence others to use a system that is guessing daily market trends.

[Harmonica]

Prothaiexpat

thanks, that explains. GM the only major who does not have a hybrid on

the market and been losing market share for years. CEO just stated a few weeks ago they do not need to be in the hybrid market because americans still want SUV's and big gas guzzlers while borrowing 1.6 bil to fund theri retirement fund that they lost in the high tech bubble. Stick to guessing calls and puts and useing TA trying to guess each day what the crowd is doing. If it works for you fine but it is not investing it is trading, similar to poker. The trip to the casino would be more enjoyable than watching daily trading patterns in the market.  I made 6 figures in the market in 04

while the little bit of money with one of these companies that write a weekly articles in a newspaper in pattaya each week lost 5 years in a row. They locked me into a long term investment which I would get about 10 cents on the dollar if I cashed out now, like I did on another fund they had me in. They claim to be the best in market analyzing also.

People that know how to invest do not come here trying to influence others to use a system that is guessing daily market  trends.

Khun ?,

Lots of anger there -- why?

Opinions are like &lt;deleted&gt; -- everyone has one! Why not let us express ours (opinions, that is, ouch!) -- your 6 figure income in 2004 notwithstanding?

>>>>>> If it works for you fine but it is not investing it is trading, similar to poker. <<<<<<<<

investing, trading, poker, whatever -- all sound good to me.

Lighten up, amigo -- we dont want to see the market misspell your name to -- ? Khun -- now do we?

[Harmonica]

It is time! Tight STOPs recommended until confirmation of trend intent.

[wimpy]

Closed out my short position last week with a small profit. For about a week now I have been seeing subtle signs of strength in the market – especially in the small caps. I did some buying on Wednesday, and again last night. It appears to me that the correction is now over. If the strength continues, will continue to add to long positions. I would have liked to see higher volume on the NASDAQ today, but it did pick up as the market rallied. Volume was up nicely on the NYSE. If the market starts selling off on heavy volume again, I will have to reassess the situation.

[Harmonica]

Closed out my short position last week with a small profit.  For about a week now I have been seeing subtle signs of strength in the market – especially in the small caps.  I did some buying on Wednesday, and again last night.  It appears to me that the correction is now over.  If the strength continues, will continue to add to long positions. I would have liked to see higher volume on the NASDAQ today, but it did pick up as the market rallied.  Volume was up nicely on the NYSE.  If the market starts selling off on heavy volume again, I will have to reassess the situation.

I'm SHORT Q's and almost got stopped out on Friday. No loss but not much gain either -- I'm leaving my position as-is -- same STOP in place. If market rallies I'll have to re-position sometime during the week as I am expecting the market to head down and have been waiting since December to be able to go mediium-term SHORT.

Have you noticed the unusually low volume on Q's for Friday? Diamonds also low, but Spiders strong. Mixed signals. In any case the volume for this little rally since January 24 is much, much less across the board than the relatively heavy volume for the decline for all three from Dec 27th. Big vol on drops and low vol on rallies is a RED light to me -- but, we need confirmation -- perhaps soon.

Regards

[Braccobaldo]

..maybe need to rename this thread???....(I hope so...)

[wimpy]

Have you noticed the unusually low volume on Q's for Friday? Diamonds also low, but Spiders strong.  Mixed signals.  In any case the volume for this little rally since January  24 is much, much less across the board than the relatively heavy volume for the decline for all three from Dec 27th.  Big vol on drops and low vol on rallies is a RED light to me -- but, we need confirmation -- perhaps soon.

Regards

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I follow price and volume on the actual indices, not the etfs. I would agree that the volume patterns on the NASDAQ haven't been too impressive. The NYSE, on the other hand, doesn't look too bad. On the S&P 600, it has been quite impressive.

My work indicates it is time to begin nibbling on the long side. I tend to make my moves in stages. As long as my current positions continue to work, I will feel comfortable taking additional exposure to the long side.

Cheers,

[uppernet]

harmonica ... what is your method in trding the QQQQ ?

[bartender100]

Harmonica

I hope nobody took your advice and lost money,I've made more in the last few trading days than in the last year.Please don't give out amature advice some people may take it serious.

[uppernet]

bartender ... what comprises your trading personality ? ..... are you more of technician or are you more of fundamentalist ?

[ProThaiExpat]

Since I limit my investing at this time to the QQQQ, I am starting a new thread on that subject, as suggested by one poster.

Would sure like the last few posters to join me there and keep us up to date on your thinking.

Those who trumpet their great gains and knock other posters are urged to specifiy what worked for them, boasting about achievement is just that unless it helps others.

Good luck to all!!

Signed:

"Just another retiree trying to beat inflation."

UPPERNET BEAT ME TWO IT!!! GREAT!!! SEE YOU AT QQQQ TRADING!!!

Edited February 11, 2005 by ProThaiExpat

[uppernet]

fundamentals and technicals are both important in the trading world ..... to invest , or to trade actively is an individual's choice ...... most important is to do your homework and execute your plan well ......

my question to those who dont believe in technical analysis ........ how do you manuever your losing positions when that happens ? holding on until it goes back to green territory someday ? ..... what if you bought 1000 shares of a fundamentally sound excellent company at $30/share and for whatever reason the price keep falling contrary to your expectation, what will you do ? ...........

To survive in the market, there is always a need to have a damage control plan ........ the 1/1000000 possibility can wipe out your 999999 times gains ........... just like the tsunami .........

[wimpy]

Well, last night makes for four distribution days (major indicies closing lower on an increase in volume) in 3 weeks for both the nasdaq and S&P500. I have profits in all of my longs, and I think I'm going to take them right here. I will step aside until the market gives clearer signs as to where it is going.

[Harmonica]

If you're not out yet, reconsider @ QQQQ=$36.4 and/or DIA=102.9 and/or SPY=113.7-- if the 200-day gets taken out convincingly, consider SHORT positions on QQQQ, SPY, DIA or your individual stocks that show similar high volume declines.

Intermediate-term rally from Aug 13 uptrendlines broken on QQQQ, Diamonds & Spiders.

Downside volume increasing on all three -- bad sign for optimists & bulls.

I got out  in  December  when the Macd uptrendline violation was confirmed by a similar likelihood in the RSI. The highest Nasdaq close was 2178 and my average exit was 2160 -- just 18 points shy of the top .... if indeed Jan 3 turns out to be the actual TOP. 

For those still in the market and in luscious optimism there might be a reprieve soon if/when the 200-day gets touched.  If the bounce is feeble and on low volume, that will be the cue to say Adios!

 

That was my January 22nd post. Now read the last paragraph. The reprieve? Its over and a done deal -- the QQQQ hit the 200-day MA on Jan 24 th and blasted off like a limp dick -- declining volume on rally, as quietly expected. Why a done deal? Both Nasdaq Composite & Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) have made a new low.

Nasdaq has gone sideways since my call -- holding the QQQQ SHORT or LONG has not been remunerative, but unlike others here, my position was SHORT so I now show a modest profit, buggerall in general terms, but a profit nonetheless, better than keeping the dough in the bank.

The Dow Jones and S&P500 have just barely taken out and exceeded their respective December tops -- so my calling December as the TOP is correct for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100, but slightly wrong for Mr. Jones and Superfluous & Pugnacious hehehehe.

Some stocks are doing very well SHORT (I own 2 in Tech.) -- quite a healthy profit, but nothing to write home about, YET! )

Adios