Caution! Nasdaq, Dow, Sp, Nikkei, Hang Seng

[Harmonica]

Large scale Diamond reversal pattern on Dow Jones weekly price chart.

Same pattern telegraphed the start of the BEAR market in January 2000.

The character of this current Diamond has been exasperatingly evanescent from a SHORT perspective for if there is no DECISIVE break of the lower upsloping line, there can be no consequences of this pattern, which if so, qualifies as a dud.

A bounce off the 200-day pales in comparison to this monstrosity -- for, if there is a downside breakout, we will arrive at Dow Jones under 1,000 in the next few years.

The title of the thread would be fulfilled if such a downside breakout were to occur.

But until that time, gardening is a safer job!

[Nam Kao]

http://www.twaves.net/PastPerformance.asp

My BG/Chang enabler

Edited October 16, 2005 by Nam Kao

[Nam Kao]

Qs Monday

We will be looking for a very strong open on Monday. Odds favor the strong open will fail and it will be followed by a steep decline or a smaller decline that lasts into Tuesday. Behind that is a rally that should arrive pushing us to highs late this week or early next. That seems to be what the market's charts are telling us. However, the dollar's pending decline may very well deliver a much stronger blow to the downside. If that happens, the much more bearish daily charts could well rule the day.

[Nam Kao]

Expect down tomoro , then north into oex-ville

[ProThaiExpat]

Expect down tomoro , then north into oex-ville

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Any clue as to timing. If you think we will see a two day pullback before a continuation of the current rally in the Qs, would appreciate that info.

I don't know why the market is disregarding all the negative inflation, hurricane and other negative news. Has the market absorbed the Feds two or more rate hikes?

Sure can't figure the currnt rally in the face of so much negative news. Perhaps overseas money is flowng in or the year end rally has started early?

[Harmonica]

Expect down tomoro , then north into oex-ville

Any clue as to timing. If you think we will see a two day pullback before a continuation of the current rally in the Qs, would appreciate that info.

I don't know why the market is disregarding all the negative inflation, hurricane and other negative news. Has the market absorbed the Feds two or more rate hikes?

Sure can't figure the currnt rally in the face of so much negative news . Perhaps overseas money is flowng in or the year end rally has started early?

A common malaise of the "fundamental" crowd, PTE -- attempting to use LOGIC to analyze an "irrational" force. That's why this sort of reasoning is the worst sort of market-timing tool.

The only valid tool that addresses what you are trying to come to terms with, is the study of PRICE action itself; this is the 1000 lb. gorilla. Embedded in the price is EVERYTHING one needs to know at any given moment -- all acts, even acts of God, Alan Geenspan, Doc Holliday & Doc. Pat Pong, are quickly discounted and reflected in PRICE.

Even recognizing this, does not make my job easy, just a heck of alot simpler because I can zero in on what is important and not a whole cacophony of extraneous effluvium that is, at best, dubious, spurious and sometimes downright specious.

The only truth there is in the markets is PRICE! Its what you and I agree on as the current selling or buying price. Nothing else matters. Its similar to the profound Las Vegas Axiom #8, "Money talks, Bullsh*t walks!"

Arguing with the market is the surest way to losses; she is the boss -- all we can do is try to listen, interpret and act on her signals.

90%+ of the public scratches it's ass when it's ear aches. Its better than scratching someone else's ass and landing up in jail, but its a far cry from anywhere close to the source of the travail.

Like the African lion waiting for days for the right moment to strike, a trend player can wait for weeks or months, his weaponry idle, personal exasperation notwithstanding.

Nothing personal intended, PTE, just my thoughts.

[Harmonica]

Additional observations:

We know that the QQQQ is above the 200-day. so are the Transports.

However, the Nasdaq composite is attacking it from below, but is still under .

Until she closes above the 200-day, I'm better off being a carpenter as opposed to going LONG.

[Nam Kao]

>>>Any clue as to timing. If you think we will see a two day pullback before a continuation of the current rally in the Qs, would appreciate that info.

Let me see how today looks and i'll post later

Fridays max pain is 39 on the Qs so i expect a push north then

more later

[Nam Kao]

Covered 38.05

Max pain magnet spookin me

Looking to open longs

[Nam Kao]

INTC giving me a decent Qs entry

lets see how the CC goes

Could have already seen the lows in AH

Max Pain still 39 http://www.ez-pnf.com/maxpain/mpa519.htm

I need 20 cents a month on the Qs for good life upcountry

any more than that is not good for my health

$$$ can be good and bad here

[ProThaiExpat]

Harmonicat: It was personal but well deserved. No one is more appreciative of the lack of sense involved in trying to be rational with the irrational and I have so posted previously on an inferential note regarding post market move "explanations" based on inherent bull or bear proclivities.

Your reminder was well taken and I most appreciate it.

Nam Kao: I am iwth you on what a regular infusion of 20 cent closed and profitable moves in the Qs would do for me, as I am up-country as well.

I may well be abandoning my strategy to take my 5% annual gain and run and look to 50 cent moves repeatedly over the year to do it. This has certainly been a "sideways" market, but when I look at the annual lows and highs, and the $5 spread in them in a year, laziness seems to compel me to wait for the 39+ area and the 35- area to make my trades.

I did have my 5% last week but go really bearish with all the bad news and thus have ridden up to the present level.

Am really getting ready to cover my short at 37.75 whcih will give me my 5% but is that really a good level to go long?

I would think going long when your deep in below the 200 day level and enjoying the slingshot effect would be a safer play?

Most acknowledge that discipline is one of the most difficult modes to keep active in the market and I appreciate the recent posts as they ceertainly help in this regard. Many thanks Harmonica and Nam Kao.

[Nam Kao]

Max Pain

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[Nam Kao]

I hope you guys went long w/ me

We could get a pullback to 38.07ish

then more up into friday.

I am selling any gap tomoro and will reload lower

Window dressing next week

1 day at a time in this crazy game

good luck

nam

[ProThaiExpat]

If there ever was a better example of "married to your stock" than me, I would doubt it.

Was a key stroke away from executing a short cover order at 37.75 before the rally started during my sleep.

Will watch the open closely and if there is any indication of a dip to the 38 area, will cover my short. I am most perplexed by this rally? There I go again with fundamental crap. Longer view does seem to suggest a dip before the end of the year rally, but then there I go again, trying to make sense out of the senseless.

I am getting the "battered investor" syndrome.

[Nam Kao]

Max Pain now probably around 38.8, AH Qs now 38.7, i will exit on the gap open.

Will look to open shorts (Nana / Qs) . Its a vicious cycle

lol

[Harmonica]

If there ever was a better example of "married to your stock" than me, I would doubt it.

Was a key stroke away from executing a short cover order at 37.75 before the rally started during my sleep.

Will watch the open closely and if there is any indication of a dip to the 38 area, will cover my short.  I am most perplexed by this rally?  There I go again with fundamental crap.  Longer view does seem to suggest a dip before the end of the year rally, but then there I go again, trying to make sense out of the senseless.

I am getting the "battered investor" syndrome.

Hang in there -- you'll recover every penny in a heartbeat when the SHORT side shows up. Patience; remember him?

Regardless, Q put in a sweet move yesterday; & no, I was not a part of that move

There are some nice happenings in currencies too; I'm having a swell time there.

Reload the pistol, PTE -- then wait!

[Nam Kao]

Nasdaq -0.4%

Boy ive been nailing them guys

Keeping stops tight inside the oex window

PTE, are you still short?

regards

nam

[Nam Kao]

Nasdaq -1.2%

Covered now Long

8K in 2 days

[Nam Kao]

Looks like gap up then ?? , hard to read with options exp.

Trailing stop slapped on

Anybody want me to keep posting my trades? not many traders/conversation here it seems.

good luck

nam

[ProThaiExpat]

Please keep posting your trades Nam Kao, in fact, why not start a new thread on the subject of day trading or something similar? My interest is in Qs as the safest trading vehicle. Comments?

What do you guys think abou a 50 cent trading strategy in the Qs. Place an order with a sell/buy limit order 50 cents away from the entry price? It seems the Qs have a daily range about 50cents with the largest move in months the other day at 75cents. Yesterday there was a 50cent trading range with a 25 cent closing move.

I am hoping to get out of my short position with my 5% profit at 38. I am really leary o th 200 day upon which there has been a bounce every time of late.

Trading strategy for the Qs is where I would like some discussion. Help please.

[ProThaiExpat]

Looks like gap up then ?? , hard to read with options exp.

  Trailing stop slapped on

 

Anybody want me to keep posting my trades? not many traders/conversation here it seems.

good luck

nam

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Please do. I find your input helpful. What do you think about starting a new thread referring to Nasdaq or Qs trading specifically.

I am still short, old married to the stock guy, but hope to cover at about 38. My opportunity lost was at 37.75 but I am very respectful of the 200 day as a result of recent bounces off that figure without any penetration.

Would sure like your guys opinions regarding what type of short term/day trading range you think reasonable for profit margin moves. It seems that 50 cents on the Qs seems like a reasonable range based on recent activity. The last rally was 75 cents, but on the whole a "big move" in any day is 50 cents, with an up or down closing usually in th 25cent range, like yesterday, but the trading range during the day is usually about 50 cents. Would it make any sense to buy with a 50 cent limit sell order in either direction when we see a change of direction in our waves or tea leaves?

[Nam Kao]

PTE, has trading the range worked for you?

-nam

[ProThaiExpat]

Nothing has worked for me yet. I am still trying to develope a strategy that would work without having the pit of my stomach turn over every time the market does the opposite of what I am sure it will do, ie. the last rally.

The only comfort I get is to use a one year time frame and try to make 5% in that time. I bought in too high last year, so I foolishly waited a half year before bailing out of that high position and going short. Now I am waiting for the downside 5% to occur before years end so I can get out and then go long for the next rally.

My last posts on a 50 cent trading strategy is really one I could use advise on.

[Nam Kao]

PTE, OK, I'll PM you later. I think i can change all that.

Friday: The count here puts us in five down and yesterdays decline was likely one down with two up started late Thursday, if true we should see some follow through to the upside early today, followed by a return to selling in three down as we head into the end of the day.

The storm in the Gulf is no longer expected to hit the US over the weekend but a potential direction change would be a risk holding the weekend.

OEX day, keep stops tight

good luck

nam

[Nam Kao]

stopped out 38.65

will look for short entry here

[Nam Kao]

Stopped out for a dime

reshorting soon

They''ll probably park it 38.8

[Nam Kao]

Covered 5000 shrs. for .12 (Proceeds into tthe Chang Fund)

Holding 2000 short over the weekend

[Nam Kao]

Mon. not sure how i'll trade til i see the futures. If up i'll be shorting into strength after the open. If down i am 2k short already and will pick up some chang $$.

The day after oex is usually just as volitile as oex because the manipulated max pain prices

revert back to normal. Good scalping if your nimble.

Ewave says down this week but possibly finishing the week positioned long.

Use stops, You never know what these crooks have up their sleeve

good luck

nam

[Nam Kao]

Covering short, oil dropping

[Nam Kao]

Tues: DJ Ewave says "Get Down and get Funky"

Me short em for many short times