Red-shirts Battle Blue-shirts In Pattaya

[brahmburgers]

I live in Pattaya at a place where I am in the midst of the red shirts; their leaders with the loudspeakers sound crazy and judging by the number of red shirts carrying poles and other weapons they are all set for a fight.

One of the all-too-few on-the-scene eyewitness accounts. Thanks for that. It's easier to get an assessment of a situation with eyewitness accounts.

For those demanding a new election, let me say, don't forget, this is Thailand - elections aren't what a westerner might expect an election to be. In Thailand, there is scant little campaigning, fewer debates, many topics are taboo, many votes are bought. Let's allow Abhisit a few years in office, while Thais try to learn what an election is. Then maybe they can do a better job at it.

For those justifying what the Reds are doing by saying the Yellows did the same or worse: That sort of justification is what we'd expect from 5 year old Tommy's mother, when Paul's mother says Tommy did something naughty. It's like; "so what if my little Tommy burned down the goat shed, your little Paul burned down the chicken coop last year. nah nah nah nah nah, pooh pooh on you.

2 p.m. headline news on BBC showed hundreds of Red Shirts walking in to the hotel in Pattaya. The commentary repeated over and over how ineffective security was for the event. My take on it: the police are charged with protecting law and order. They should set up one or two cordons. If any group, regardless of shirt color, attempts to force their way through the cordon, the cops need to take necessary force to hold the line. Some police chief heads should roll, figuratively speaking. Bring in outside police forces, if local authorities can't do the job.

And this talk about "one Red Shirt death, and then Abhisit should resign." is a load of garbagio. People die every hour in Thailand, for all sorts of dumb reasons. Why should Abhisit be personally responsible for the death or one or more hot headed firebrands bent of causing trouble?

[edwardmoulton]

Seems to me many people are making judgements based on class. Just because the red-shirts are of lower class does not mean that they are any worse than the yellow shirts who caused mayhem. If anything perhaps the yellows are worse, because as supposedely better educated people they should know better. Thuggery is thuggery, it doesn't matter how you dress it up or try to justify it. However, while I generally support strong action from police, I think it would be wrong if they take a more heavy handed attitude against the reds, unless innocent lives are at risk or security forces are killed. The red-shirts already feel aggrieved, rightly or wrongly, but beating the crap out of them is only going to inflame the situation and maybe encourage more people to get involved. Remember, at the moment many of these people have nothing to lose!

I found a Thai co worker of mine...educated, and her husband as well, very happy when the PAD took the airports...they were so excited...like the 'good guys' were finally winning, or something. I asked them, ' What about the 350,000 farangs stranded in this country, some old, some sick, some with kids. Some having used up their alloted monies and ready to go home, empty pockets. Missed flights, have to book new hotel rooms, etc? " She looked at me, dumbfounded. "Oh," she said in that oh so Thai way, "Airline will give back the money, right?" I was shocked, but of course she has never traveled internationally and not realized how desparate things can be if a country falls apart while you are there. She really did assume that somehow, all the nice farangs would have all their money reimbursed....so problem....mai ben rai! The lack of logisitcal thinking in this country, where I have lived and worked among them for a decade, reading, writing speaking, the language, so I am NOT bashing them, but the lack of logisitcal thinking, no forward planning, no, "but if I do this , then what about that?" is quite dangerous in times like these.

Having said all of that, I have never been a champion of K. Thaksin, however in Isaan where I work, I have a very dear friend, a teacher for 20 years, Thai, who said that while she doesnt know about all the 'corruption' of Thaksin, for the first time in 20 YEARS...her students had books, bicycles for those who lived too far to walk, she had supplies to use in her little govt class rooms. It was a wonder, she said.

He may have been a bully and a brute...but face it, democrats ( funny name for you. who wish 70 percent of govt ministers appointed)....he did do some good for the poor. In your years in office, you never did half as much.

I think that is the reality but unfortunately so many of the farang on here living in Thailand like to feel themselves a cut above the working class (maybe because they were working class in their own country?) and so they espouse the hi-so classes here thinking it elevates them. It just makes chumps of them imho. Aspiring to be part of something when you are not even on the door list looks sad so stop championong the cause of the sinister non-Democrat Party and support the average person here...

[RubbaJohnny]

'Light at the end of the tunnel"

No it's a train coming towards you

If LOS is becoming a democracy there will be a democratic government

If its a dictatorship a coup

If its a rancid third world whorehouse full of corruption there will be a mess

Edited April 11, 2009 by RubbaJohnny

[edwardmoulton]

I live in Pattaya at a place where I am in the midst of the red shirts; their leaders with the loudspeakers sound crazy and judging by the number of red shirts carrying poles and other weapons they are all set for a fight.

One of the all-too-few on-the-scene eyewitness accounts. Thanks for that. It's easier to get an assessment of a situation with eyewitness accounts.

For those demanding a new election, let me say, don't forget, this is Thailand - elections aren't what a westerner might expect an election to be. In Thailand, there is scant little campaigning, fewer debates, many topics are taboo, many votes are bought. Let's allow Abhisit a few years in office, while Thais try to learn what an election is. Then maybe they can do a better job at it.

For those justifying what the Reds are doing by saying the Yellows did the same or worse: That sort of justification is what we'd expect from 5 year old Tommy's mother, when Paul's mother says Tommy did something naughty. It's like; "so what if my little Tommy burned down the goat shed, your little Paul burned down the chicken coop last year. nah nah nah nah nah, pooh pooh on you.

2 p.m. headline news on BBC showed hundreds of Red Shirts walking in to the hotel in Pattaya. The commentary repeated over and over how ineffective security was for the event. My take on it: the police are charged with protecting law and order. They should set up one or two cordons. If any group, regardless of shirt color, attempts to force their way through the cordon, the cops need to take necessary force to hold the line. Some police chief heads should roll, figuratively speaking. Bring in outside police forces, if local authorities can't do the job.

And this talk about "one Red Shirt death, and then Abhisit should resign." is a load of garbagio. People die every hour in Thailand, for all sorts of dumb reasons. Why should Abhisit be personally responsible for the death or one or more hot headed firebrands bent of causing trouble?

No, muppet Suthep told us the security was to International Standards.... I believed him as I always have....

[slim]

How much time did Thaksin have to do "good" and how much of that time did he use to exploit the country for his own good? It's a bit ridiculous to try and compare Thaksin with the PAD me thinks. And to to good is to give people a couple of thousand baht to buy their loyalty... well, I would call that pure exploitation of people who have no education and can't see further than their nose.

Millions - thats millions - of Thai people can now afford healthcare thanks to Thaksin Shinawatra. Before he was Prime Minister Thailand had no national healthcare program. If you couldn't afford healthcare - you died - simple as that. Now the hospitals are overflowing by people many of whom earn less than 300 baht a day but have enough to get treatment for medical conditions minor and serious.

Thaksins supporters are loyal to him and will remain loyal to him not because you naively think he's paying them - they're loyal to him because they look on him as a champion of the poor - a man who stands up for rights of the people of Thailand you condescendinlgy dismiss.

All Thai politicians are corrupt - do you think people of Thailand give a rats ass if Thaksin is?

They dont.

They do care that they can take their children and parents for life saving operations that were previously out of reach.

Pure nonsense. Before was a program and noone got rejected. But it didn't work perfect.

This health care was designed in the CHUAN Government but lack of money not yet implemented.

Lack of money because the former government (member Thaksin) lead Thailand to the 1997 crises.

Tell your wife she should not believe everything DTV tells her....

Whats my wife got to do with this thread f*ckwit?

The only time I mentioned her was in relaying the FACT that Thaksin Shinawatra is referred to as "Paw" in Issan.

As for as the nonsense lets put it to the vote.

What you say - clearly a PAD supporting Thai or Wikipedia:-

He entered politics in 1994 and founded the populist Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party in 1998. After a landslide election victory in 2001, he became prime minister, the country’s first to serve a full term.[3] Thaksin introduced a range of partly effective and highly popular policies to alleviate rural poverty.[4][5] He launched the country's first universal healthcare program,[6] the 30-baht scheme, as well as drastic social order and drug suppression campaigns.[7]

[jbhh]

How much time did Thaksin have to do "good" and how much of that time did he use to exploit the country for his own good? It's a bit ridiculous to try and compare Thaksin with the PAD me thinks. And to to good is to give people a couple of thousand baht to buy their loyalty... well, I would call that pure exploitation of people who have no education and can't see further than their nose.

Millions - thats millions - of Thai people can now afford healthcare thanks to Thaksin Shinawatra. Before he was Prime Minister Thailand had no national healthcare program. If you couldn't afford healthcare - you died - simple as that. Now the hospitals are overflowing by people many of whom earn less than 300 baht a day but have enough to get treatment for medical conditions minor and serious.

Thaksins supporters are loyal to him and will remain loyal to him not because you naively think he's paying them - they're loyal to him because they look on him as a champion of the poor - a man who stands up for rights of the people of Thailand you condescendinlgy dismiss.

All Thai politicians are corrupt - do you think people of Thailand give a rats ass if Thaksin is?

They dont.

They do care that they can take their children and parents for life saving operations that were previously out of reach.

Pure nonsense. Before was a program and noone got rejected. But it didn't work perfect.

This health care was designed in the CHUAN Government but lack of money not yet implemented.

Lack of money because the former government (member Thaksin) lead Thailand to the 1997 crises.

Tell your wife she should not believe everything DTV tells her....

What's wrong with carrying a program from former government?

In fact, the program is up and running now.

I am wondering if you have sufficient knowledge on how government from developing countries work i.e. They may make good program but fail in the execution for certain reason (named corruption)

So... basically you are saying THAKSIN did good by taking an idea he did not come up with and implemented it half ass. I would say that pretty much any government/PM could have done that.

Just an info here, minimum income in Prachuap Khiri Khan is 4444 Baht a months, so that's about 150 baht a day, which again means the POOR can't afford health insurance. The sister of a friend had an accident recently, first she was refused by 2 hospitals because she was unfortunate not to have a health insurance, the 3rd hospital said: You got money and you can keep your leg - you got no money we have to amputate it. We had to take a drive all they way up to Bangkok and guarantee for her so she could keep her leg. In my point of view the Health Care System in Thailand is inhumane and sucks.

[h90]

How much time did Thaksin have to do "good" and how much of that time did he use to exploit the country for his own good? It's a bit ridiculous to try and compare Thaksin with the PAD me thinks. And to to good is to give people a couple of thousand baht to buy their loyalty... well, I would call that pure exploitation of people who have no education and can't see further than their nose.

Millions - thats millions - of Thai people can now afford healthcare thanks to Thaksin Shinawatra. Before he was Prime Minister Thailand had no national healthcare program. If you couldn't afford healthcare - you died - simple as that. Now the hospitals are overflowing by people many of whom earn less than 300 baht a day but have enough to get treatment for medical conditions minor and serious.

Thaksins supporters are loyal to him and will remain loyal to him not because you naively think he's paying them - they're loyal to him because they look on him as a champion of the poor - a man who stands up for rights of the people of Thailand you condescendinlgy dismiss.

All Thai politicians are corrupt - do you think people of Thailand give a rats ass if Thaksin is?

They dont.

They do care that they can take their children and parents for life saving operations that were previously out of reach.

Pure nonsense. Before was a program and noone got rejected. But it didn't work perfect.

This health care was designed in the CHUAN Government but lack of money not yet implemented.

Lack of money because the former government (member Thaksin) lead Thailand to the 1997 crises.

Tell your wife she should not believe everything DTV tells her....

You are full of rubbish. Many poor and not so poor Thais were very pleased with the medical program instituted by Thaksin, and that is one of the principle reasons they miss him. Before you trash me, I should let you know that I speak/read/write Thai very well and do not get my news filtered through my wife.

Than I recommend you use these skills and get your facts straight. It might be the reason why they miss him, but it was pure propaganda. It was an old project from the Democrats which he just implemented within the old schedule. And he damaged the health care system with it, because he didn't supply the funds.

But yes some silly one may believe it was his good idea.

[ohdearohdearohdear]

I just had the Thai TV translated to me by my wife and apparently they are going to revoke the state of emergency because of Songkran and they don't want to damage tourism - well thoguht out beforehand wasn't it. Hahaha What a bunch of halfwits...

Will the last farang to leave please turn the big screen tv off at the begining of walking street

Mate, grow up.

Thailand is NOT walking street.

But to you....life is "walking street" right?

jerk

I am not living in exile actually I make my living from thailand and publisizing the benifits of the country that I decided to spend my life in. I have spent 14 years promoting this country to the rest of the world and not slating it. I have a Thai family who are from a poor background and are porly educated like the majority of normal Thais. They are not the ones who make the blatently ridiculas decisions nor do they perport to be inteligent.

Walking Street is one of Pattayas internationally known attractions however you see it!

The big screen at the begining of walking street is whether you like it or not a major marketing point for the city and my referal to turning the sign off was just a reflexion on what will happen here if stability is not regained.

The last time I was in walking street was to promote a product of Pattaya and not as you mistakenly stated.

[rixalex]

What your point ?

I've lived in Thailand over 5 years

I speak the language

I meet Thai people from all backgrounds (in Khon Kaen - don't suppose you know where that is - why not Google it ?)

Sorry, i thought my point was blatantly obvious.

OK, let me "nutshell" it for you: Foreign guys who marry into a family that has spent the last 6 or 7 years sucking up all the Thaksin propaganda he could dish out, often end up believing and spouting the same nonsense.

[edwardmoulton]

Pretty much where we are now as the Beeb reports:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7994465.stm

I guess/hope we will have an election announced within 7 days.

[Livinginexile]

I just had the Thai TV translated to me by my wife and apparently they are going to revoke the state of emergency because of Songkran and they don't want to damage tourism - well thoguht out beforehand wasn't it. Hahaha What a bunch of halfwits...

Will the last farang to leave please turn the big screen tv off at the begining of walking street

Mate, grow up.

Thailand is NOT walking street.

But to you....life is "walking street" right?

jerk

I am not living in exile actually I make my living from thailand and publisizing the benifits of the country that I decided to spend my life in. I have spent 14 years promoting this country to the rest of the world and not slating it. I have a Thai family who are from a poor background and are porly educated like the majority of normal Thais. They are not the ones who make the blatently ridiculas decisions nor do they perport to be inteligent.

Walking Street is one of Pattayas internationally known attractions however you see it!

The big screen at the begining of walking street is whether you like it or not a major marketing point for the city and my referal to turning the sign off was just a reflexion on what will happen here if stability is not regained.

The last time I was in walking street was to promote a product of Pattaya and not as you mistakenly stated.

Ohhh plzzzz....you are the last one...turn off the lights will ya?

[jackspratt]

Give Kim Jong-il and North Korea a lesson on military dictatorship? They could learn something from Thailand.

When I read your posts the two thoughts that come to mind are silly and simplistic. I am still trying to work out in what order.

There are many posters on TV who may add absolutely nothing to the sum total of human knowledge - unfortunately you actually detract.

[edwardmoulton]

Well I do not know that history but all I can say is Thaksin is evidently far smarter and better at PR than the current muppets!

[bonnylad]

I think Thaksin will be buying a house beside Robert Mugabe now.

[Thai at Heart]

Would anyone agree with me that the PM let it come to this on purpose?

He's a very intelligent person and he had enough time to prepare for the events in Pattaya, it make me think he wanted the reds to cross the line so he has the right to stop them from doing anything stupid in the future. If he would have acted before and called enough security to make sure they can't interrupt the summit, none of this would have happened and he in return would have no reason to take action against the red.

I would call it a smart move, however the reds will most likely say he got lucky when looking at the outcome of today's events in a couple of days or so.

Being the PM hosting Asean plus CHINA, KOREA and JAPAN, and having them helicoptered out to safety because your country is apparently beyond your control wouldn't seem like a very smart move to me. I would imagine all the delegates reckon they won't be seeing Abhisit at too many more meetings in the future. He will have lost massive credibility in the eyes of his fellow delegates.

This also presumes that he can and will take action. Right now, I don't think that there is much HE can do. The people (and in that I don't mean the PAD but the 30mn un-decided or uncommitted) can rise up against the reds and show their dissatisfaction with the situation. That I think is his only hope. I can't realistically see that if the protests can keep continuing he has any way out other than to hold elections. The army might make the decision for him of course, and then Thailand is straight back to square one.

If he sends in the police to break up the protests, he is doing precisely what Samak and Somchai did and look how far that got them. The factionalised nature of the police mean that there is no guarantee that they would act effectively on his orders anyway. The army might do it for him, but does Thailand want it's name on the front page of the worlds press again having the army march on it's own countrymen?

The PAD got treated with kid gloves, and the Dems often open support means that they can't really do much without the situation spiralling even further out of control and making him appear like a complete hypocrite.

[edwardmoulton]

Would anyone agree with me that the PM let it come to this on purpose?

He's a very intelligent person and he had enough time to prepare for the events in Pattaya, it make me think he wanted the reds to cross the line so he has the right to stop them from doing anything stupid in the future. If he would have acted before and called enough security to make sure they can't interrupt the summit, none of this would have happened and he in return would have no reason to take action against the red.

I would call it a smart move, however the reds will most likely say he got lucky when looking at the outcome of today's events in a couple of days or so.

Being the PM hosting Asean plus CHINA, KOREA and JAPAN, and having them helicoptered out to safety because your country is apparently beyond your control wouldn't seem like a very smart move to me. I would imagine all the delegates reckon they won't be seeing Abhisit at too many more meetings in the future. He will have lost massive credibility in the eyes of his fellow delegates.

This also presumes that he can and will take action. Right now, I don't think that there is much HE can do. The people (and in that I don't mean the PAD but the 30mn un-decided or uncommitted) can rise up against the reds and show their dissatisfaction with the situation. That I think is his only hope. I can't realistically see that if the protests can keep continuing he has any way out other than to hold elections. The army might make the decision for him of course, and then Thailand is straight back to square one.

If he sends in the police to break up the protests, he is doing precisely what Samak and Somchai did and look how far that got them. The factionalised nature of the police mean that there is no guarantee that they would act effectively on his orders anyway. The army might do it for him, but does Thailand want it's name on the front page of the worlds press again having the army march on it's own countrymen?

The PAD got treated with kid gloves, and the Dems often open support means that they can't really do much without the situation spiralling even further out of control and making him appear like a complete hypocrite.

I agree totally and the longer he sits there like a schoolboy waiting for a phone call from his mum the longer the country will go down. Whichever side you support, the impasse is wrong and just dragging out the inevitable. Call a fair election overseen buy the UN as we are in a banana republic now by all accounts and in western eyes...

[Scott]

The 'logic' used for the yellow shirts was that they had the 'right' to protest. That included taking over public buildings, public places, closing public roads. If the gov't considered this legal--or legal enough not to pursue legal action against those involved, then they need to do the same for the red shirts.

In both cases it's a wrong approach and in most places wouldn't be tolerated. The amount of force used to stop them would be the amount necessary. Lots of back up troops and you keep uping the force until they disperse or head for an area where they are not a threat. You don't let them take over international airports or international meetings. In both cases the security of a lot of people was and is being ignored.

Demonstrations. Yes. Expression of views. Yes. Disruption and potential danger to both civilians and leaders of foreign nations. No.

[dashiling69]

  All this would be fun and cute if it were on stage, complete with singing and dance and choreographed battle scenes between color coded gangs. A Musical!. As it is, this all makes Thailand and Thai people look like foolish children. But ask a Thai what's gone wrong, and 9 out of 10 would blame "foreigners"!

[neverdie]

Give Kim Jong-il and North Korea a lesson on military dictatorship? They could learn something from Thailand.

When I read your posts the two thoughts that come to mind are silly and simplistic. I am still trying to work out in what order.

There are many posters on TV who may add absolutely nothing to the sum total of human knowledge - unfortunately you actually detract.

And now theres two of you Jackspratt. Leave rainman alone, at least he is passionate about his work, unlike you, a person who just hangs in the background and ridicules other posters. Jack, you detract from the human race.

Edited April 11, 2009 by neverdie

[jbhh]

The 'logic' used for the yellow shirts was that they had the 'right' to protest. That included taking over public buildings, public places, closing public roads. If the gov't considered this legal--or legal enough not to pursue legal action against those involved, then they need to do the same for the red shirts.

In both cases it's a wrong approach and in most places wouldn't be tolerated. The amount of force used to stop them would be the amount necessary. Lots of back up troops and you keep uping the force until they disperse or head for an area where they are not a threat. You don't let them take over international airports or international meetings. In both cases the security of a lot of people was and is being ignored.

Demonstrations. Yes. Expression of views. Yes. Disruption and potential danger to both civilians and leaders of foreign nations. No.

4 questions?

1. How many months did the PAD demonstrate peacefully?

2. Why did they see it was necessary to take drastic actions at the end?

3. How many months have the red shirts demonstrated peacefully?

4. Why do they see it necessary to take drastic actions?

[flying]

What your point ?

I've lived in Thailand over 5 years

I speak the language

I meet Thai people from all backgrounds (in Khon Kaen - don't suppose you know where that is - why not Google it ?)

Sorry, i thought my point was blatantly obvious.

OK, let me "nutshell" it for you: Foreign guys who marry into a family that has spent the last 6 or 7 years sucking up all the Thaksin propaganda he could dish out, often end up believing and spouting the same nonsense.

I think the only nut in that nutshell is you.

What makes you feel so superior?

What makes you think your the only one capable of having an opinion or free thought?

Whose propaganda have you been sucking up?

Sheesh

Edited April 11, 2009 by flying

[jbhh]

Would anyone agree with me that the PM let it come to this on purpose?

He's a very intelligent person and he had enough time to prepare for the events in Pattaya, it make me think he wanted the reds to cross the line so he has the right to stop them from doing anything stupid in the future. If he would have acted before and called enough security to make sure they can't interrupt the summit, none of this would have happened and he in return would have no reason to take action against the red.

I would call it a smart move, however the reds will most likely say he got lucky when looking at the outcome of today's events in a couple of days or so.

Being the PM hosting Asean plus CHINA, KOREA and JAPAN, and having them helicoptered out to safety because your country is apparently beyond your control wouldn't seem like a very smart move to me. I would imagine all the delegates reckon they won't be seeing Abhisit at too many more meetings in the future. He will have lost massive credibility in the eyes of his fellow delegates.

This also presumes that he can and will take action. Right now, I don't think that there is much HE can do. The people (and in that I don't mean the PAD but the 30mn un-decided or uncommitted) can rise up against the reds and show their dissatisfaction with the situation. That I think is his only hope. I can't realistically see that if the protests can keep continuing he has any way out other than to hold elections. The army might make the decision for him of course, and then Thailand is straight back to square one.

If he sends in the police to break up the protests, he is doing precisely what Samak and Somchai did and look how far that got them. The factionalised nature of the police mean that there is no guarantee that they would act effectively on his orders anyway. The army might do it for him, but does Thailand want it's name on the front page of the worlds press again having the army march on it's own countrymen?

The PAD got treated with kid gloves, and the Dems often open support means that they can't really do much without the situation spiralling even further out of control and making him appear like a complete hypocrite.

we'll see... I think these leaders very much understand and grasp the total picture of the situation, and that this may well have been the right thing to do, as the reds now look as total idiots and "everyone" agrees that the PM "had to act now"...

I agree totally and the longer he sits there like a schoolboy waiting for a phone call from his mum the longer the country will go down. Whichever side you support, the impasse is wrong and just dragging out the inevitable. Call a fair election overseen buy the UN as we are in a banana republic now by all accounts and in western eyes...

That may be the solution to the symptom but not the solution of the cause. I don't see any "democratic" government succeed (in Thailand) as long as there are the "ruling elites" that want a piece of the action.

Edited April 11, 2009 by jbhh

[Mosha]

Odds on a coup after the holidays anyone?

[rixalex]

What makes you feel so superior?

You

[Thai at Heart]

Would anyone agree with me that the PM let it come to this on purpose?

He's a very intelligent person and he had enough time to prepare for the events in Pattaya, it make me think he wanted the reds to cross the line so he has the right to stop them from doing anything stupid in the future. If he would have acted before and called enough security to make sure they can't interrupt the summit, none of this would have happened and he in return would have no reason to take action against the red.

I would call it a smart move, however the reds will most likely say he got lucky when looking at the outcome of today's events in a couple of days or so.

Being the PM hosting Asean plus CHINA, KOREA and JAPAN, and having them helicoptered out to safety because your country is apparently beyond your control wouldn't seem like a very smart move to me. I would imagine all the delegates reckon they won't be seeing Abhisit at too many more meetings in the future. He will have lost massive credibility in the eyes of his fellow delegates.

This also presumes that he can and will take action. Right now, I don't think that there is much HE can do. The people (and in that I don't mean the PAD but the 30mn un-decided or uncommitted) can rise up against the reds and show their dissatisfaction with the situation. That I think is his only hope. I can't realistically see that if the protests can keep continuing he has any way out other than to hold elections. The army might make the decision for him of course, and then Thailand is straight back to square one.

If he sends in the police to break up the protests, he is doing precisely what Samak and Somchai did and look how far that got them. The factionalised nature of the police mean that there is no guarantee that they would act effectively on his orders anyway. The army might do it for him, but does Thailand want it's name on the front page of the worlds press again having the army march on it's own countrymen?

The PAD got treated with kid gloves, and the Dems often open support means that they can't really do much without the situation spiralling even further out of control and making him appear like a complete hypocrite.

we'll see... I think these leaders very much understand and grasp the total picture of the situation, and that this may well have been the right thing to do, as the reds now look as total idiots and "everyone" agrees that the PM "had to act now"...

I agree totally and the longer he sits there like a schoolboy waiting for a phone call from his mum the longer the country will go down. Whichever side you support, the impasse is wrong and just dragging out the inevitable. Call a fair election overseen buy the UN as we are in a banana republic now by all accounts and in western eyes...

That may be the solution to the symptom but not the solution of the cause. I don't see any "democratic" government succeed (in Thailand) as long as there are the "ruling elites" that want a piece of the action.

So what is he going to do that can magically defuse this situation?

[way2muchcoffee]

I've been following this rather closely. Here are my thoughts:

The PAD Protests

I think the PAD demonstrations were an appropriate response to issues of government corruption, and the single-minded attempt to exonerate Thaksin by the government of the time - at least in the early days. During these protests the government of the time made a misstep, people got hurt. Around that time the red shirts arrived. More violence and the confrontation escalated. The PAD became militant. More people were hurt. Once the PAD had resorted to violence they lost the moral high ground. It is understandable that they did so, in the face of grenade attacks etcetera, but nevertheless, this was the end of their moral triumph. Ultimately the airport was closed. This was an unbelievably bad decision.

The Democrat Ascendancy

After being mostly silent, with a few notable condemnations by Abhisit regarding both the airport takeover and the way in which Puea Thai MP's were hounded by PAD protesters with handclappers, the democrats got their chance to govern. At the time of the power transfer it was neck and neck as to who would form the next government. The Puea Thai was offering 50 mil to any MP who would switch to their side, the Dems had military backing (and perhaps the quiet backing of more 'elevated' houses). It was a no holds barred race, and the Dems won the day. Since that time they have governed remarkably well in my opinion. A fragile stability was being established and the country's reputation was being rebuilt.

Thaksin Bites Back

Seeing the effectiveness of the PAD protests the DAAD/UDD decided that they should do likewise. Fair enough. In the first couple of days they were peaceful and portions of their message were righteous. However, they insisted on supporting the criminal Thaksin. That was, and still is, an indefensible position. Moreover, they demanded resignations of privy council members. That simply isn't going to happen. Nevertheless their desire for a more equitable system is understandable and laudable, despite what other motives some of their leaders may

Blue Shirts and The Summit

Whoever paid these blue shirt guys sorely miscalculated. They should never have been in Pattaya to begin with. The government should have ensured stability for the summit by bringing in 20,000 soldiers and 10,000 police to maintain order. Violence ensued, the summit was canceled, and a state of emergency declared. The red shirts are equally to blame. They should never have been there. The damage has been done. Thailand and the Thai people will suffer.

Overall Thoughts

Nobody is really in the right here. The extremists have ruled the day for far too long. The damage to the country has been severe, and it's not over yet. Both sides need to be reasonable and willing to negotiate. Sadly this seems unlikely to happen. And even if it were to happen what is there to negotiate really? I see no real solutions. For now all we can do is watch and wait and hope.

Thoughts on Possible Solutions (Listed in Order)

1) The current government agrees to step down after necessary 'bipartisan' business is completed.

2) All members and leaders of protest groups are exonerated.

3) The constitution is rewritten to abolish the party dissolution clauses, with all sides taking part in the process.

4) Both sides agree to not pardon politicians previously found guilty of electoral fraud, but the ban is rescinded for leaders of banned parties who were not directly involved in the activities which led to party dissolution.

5) Laws are enacted to ensure that any politician found guilty of vote buying in the next elections is jailed.

6) Laws are put in place to severely criminalize public takeover of government facilities during protest movements.

7) Thaksin's money is returned minus the tax that would have been withheld had the tax laws not been changed just prior to the sale of ShinCorp.

8) Both sides agree to accept the victor or coalition party that wins.

9) Both sides agree to not exonerate Thaksin for his criminal behavior.

10) All agree that the Privy Council is an institution that is above politics as it functions directly for the monarchy.

11) The military agrees not to meddle.

12) Elections are held.

Edited April 11, 2009 by way2muchcoffee

[henryalleman]

Henry, I think to say that there isn't general support is a very dangerous idea. Just as the yellows had a silent level of support, there is a silent level of support for the reds. Simply because people don't actively protest doesn't mean that a lot of people are dissatisfied with the antics of the army, the PAD and the Dems over the last couple of years.

I have seen and heard more discussion about the short term and long term future for Thailand amongst Thai's in the last year than in any of the previous 20 I have been here. People feel very uneasy about which way the country will go.

In my interpretation there is a feeling that if the status quo doesn't change now, the so called elites/Bangkokians/Chinese business owners will have the country to themselves just at a time when the poor believed (rightly or wrongly)they may have had a champion to further their cause in the near future. It is extremely difficult to engender loyalty to the current system when it hasn't got you any further than planting rice on rented land.

Whilst I don't believe that the ideas of the reds appeal to an overwhelming majority of Thai's, I think it appeals to more people than the ideas propagated by the PAD. As for the Dems, well they haven't had any major appeal outside their strongholds in recent years. Is this down to brainwashing or corruption or I reckon more probably that the poor outside of the South don't believe they have ever really done anything for them?

Edited - Quotes didn't work

Thai at Heart.

Of course its my personal opinion, and so is yours. Its all depend in wich environment you stay. I confess that I have more connections in the Thai urban society.

But the contacts that I have in Isan and North, do like to end the current situation, and non of them believe that Thaksin is the answer. His image is just damaged too much. And yes they feel neglected, but they also know dam_n well that Thaksin is using them like a prostitute for his own gain.

And the recent stimulus from the present government regarding education, 2000 Baht, free water and so on is highly appreciated.

Also don't underestimate the fact that Abhisit is good looking, polite,well behaving and well spoken. For westerners its maybe rather irrelevant but you, as I know, its still very important in Thai culture.

Why otherwise Thai soap and their stars are so popular.

And indeed I agree with you that Thailand needs big social reforms, but who are the leaders of the red brigade you can trust to deliver it. Is it Chalerm, Samak or some other of the tree stooges?

And its also a fact that most Thai believe that the democrats are far less corrupt than other parties, Chuan for instance has a great respect for that matter even amongst his enemies.

And as I suggested in an other topic. Lets evaluate the situation end of next week.

BTW, my nickname is not Thai at Heart but I can vow to you that my concern and empathy for the unprivileged in Thai society is immense, due to my many travels all over the country.

And that's why I believe that changes in the society can only be reached by education, and this is exactly one of the major targets of the present government, together with establishing a good health care. And that is again what the present government did, the 30 baht health scheme didn't work before and only after a few months its works almost perfectly now, as everybody can testify.

So give this government the benefit of the doubt till the next elections who are any how held next year. And don't you agree that due to the current worldwide economical collapse its not good to have a paralyzed government who must spend months in campaigning and after that spend months in negotiations to form a new government. Or are you so sure that the opposition will win this elections with an overwhelming majority. And again, do you honestly believe that the reds have able statesman to rule the country in the present economical situation. I think you can agree that Chalerm or Samak are definitely not those men.

[Journalist]

I enjoyed your 'Dewey defeats Truman' piece yesterday Henry

Lets face it, Belgium's contribution to geo-political analysis and combat has been the 'This way to Paris' signs erected on the Belgian border in 1914 and 1939.

The helicopters today reminded me a bit of the fall of Saigon.

Edited April 11, 2009 by Journalist

[khonkaen man]

From some of the post on this thread it is more than apparent, that those decrying what the red shirt do, have more than likely never visited the North and North east of Thailand. I am not a Thaksin supporter but I would never be a Democrat. Until Thaksin came along the poor would get a visit just before election time, by the Dems, who would promise them the world then win the election and clear off back to Bkk and do nothing for the poor.

Thaksin gave them a little something in return for there votes, he was not stupid he realised that you had to throw down some corn for the poor. I am sure we all agree that all Thai politicians are corrupt( well most) so Mr T is no different to any of the others. The elite have used the Dems to further their wealth with the support of the army and ringed by an institution I am not allowed to talk about.

Thaksin has is own agenda and the poor have theirs and the only chance for the poor to achieve their agenda is by pinning all thier hopes on Mr T.

A previous poster said that this was a conflict between Royalists and Republicans and that to me is 100% correct. The poor have never had a leader who took on the establishment, now they have and he aint going away. Unfortunately history shows us that to reach true democracy we have to have bloodshed. Not a nice thought but the poor are no longer wai-ing to the elite and thanking them for letting them be poor

[Sunderland]

10th April 2009. No weapon as per the law. Otherwise they would have been cleared by tear gas.

Bunch of wanke_rs!